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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Germany: a predictable election?

Graphic: The most recent German polling, further details available here
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If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.
Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?
If Sussex makes good sparkling wines (which it does), then that's great. They should sell it as premium Sussex sparkling wine, not pretend it's Champagne.
@SamCoatesTimes: seeking to blame outside lobby group Change Britain. Now Change Britain did come up w/ idea but Suella distributed the letter to colleagues
But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?
In any event, when it comes to premium cheeses, 'formula' doesn't really describe the biological complexity - a bit like the difficulty in getting biosimilars approved by medicines regulatory agencies.
For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.
They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.
If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast
Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.
I'll say they diverged!
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/905788806997188609
Can I echo the general appreciation of Nick P's excellent piece. Kudos, sir !
There's not much more to add - the current composition of the Bundestag has CDU/CSU on 309, SPD on 193, Greens on 64 and Die Linke on 63. It seems likely both CDU/CSU and SPD will be down a little if both FDP and AfD make it back which seems probable.
Merkel has not followed the British or New Zealand examples of a Prime Minister leaving, their successor enjoying a honeymoon period but that proving ephemeral in the heat of an election campaign.
I note on Allensbach CDU/CSU plus FDP is now 48.5% which is tantalisingly close to a workable Government.
edit... beaten by @Theuniondivvie Oh, the shame!
That said, one would have to have no taste buds not to recognise that European cheeses (and I include our own fine offerings) are light years ahead of anything else I've ever seen on this Earth.
As long as stuff is properly labelled (and yes, there's a tale) the consumer should be free to make a choice. "Kenosha medium hard yellow cheese" might be God awful for all I know, but it might still find a market if it's £3 a kilo cheaper than the stuff from the Netherlands just marked "Gouda".
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond
The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.
Presumably something like "Product of Scotland" on a bottle of whisky would differentiate it from Belgian "Scotch"
French rely on just sticking the word "champagne" on the bottle to enable them to sell any old fizzy plonk. The new world now kicks their behind on wine - only these last remaining snobbish regional cartels prevent a total implosion of sales.
And for the WI, all Hopes are gone...
Kate Hoey, the Labour pro-leave MP, is speaking now. She says she is disappointed that Labour is voting against the bill. That will be seen as a refusal to accept the results of the referendum, she says.
She says she will only accept a transition period if from day one Britain has made it clear it will not pay any more money to the EU.
The Conservative John Redwood intervenes to say he agrees.
We may accidentally get marooned in the worst of all possible chaotic Brexits because of an unholy alliance between unrealistic Remainers, head-banging Leavers, and a cynical opposition party, especially given the lack of realism and the greed on the EU27 side.
Are you aware of https://www.centauri-dreams.org/ by the way? Blog of Paul Gilster about interstellar travel, for when you want a complete change from PB. Closely connected with Breakthrough Starshot.
WI Test cricket is sadly dying on its feet this summer.
Banks is an arse.
It would be the height of irony if a wave of entryist-inspired de-selections were to take place in the Conservative Party!
Nowt would surprise me these days.
Good article, Mr. Palmer. Must admit, short odds bets are not usually my thing but somewhat tempted by the Merkel 1.12. When's polling day?
Mr. Nabavi, indeed. It'd be slightly reminiscent of the Syria vote, whereby there was a massive majority for action but dancing on the head of a pin meant that neither the Opposition nor Government motions passed.
1) CDU / CSU will walk it. It did look different a few months ago when the CSU got awkward and threatened to withdraw support unless there were policy changes (especially around migrants) but they have come into line and are entirely supportive.
2) There was one leaders' debate between Merkel and Schulz, then another for the 5 smaller party leaders the next day. The CSU leader was at this, so there was effectively a CDU voice but no SPD voice - he used this to his advantage.
3) The real unsung success story is how Angela Merkel has dealt with the refugees issue; part moralising, part effective management and onward movement.
4) The AfD leader walked out of a debate the other night (not sure if it was the same as in #2) and it's got lots of coverage; they are the anti-everything party but this doesn't hit the German psyche the way it does over here.
5) We wouldn't advise putting money on the Jamaica coalition - neither the Greens (with a Turkish migrant leader putting some off) nor the FDP have any momentum and there's a real risk one will not hit the 5% threshold.
6) Remember the Defence Secretary who resigned over doctoring his PhD thesis? Van Guttenburg. He's suddenly started appearing everywhere as a pundit and is getting plenty of coverage. The comeback is well underway, and he's worth keeping an eye on if there's a next Chancellor market.
Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000
But on current polling it doesn't arise.
Thanks for the kind comments, all. Polling day is 24 September.
How is that news?
Pong, how is that destroying "the once great Conservative party"?
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/905800816040300545
Must have just pipped TSE........
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/905800064001605633
If you don't care enough to vote you don't get counted.
UDI on less than 50% of the electorate's support is not a great look and will make the Catalan case even harder to make outside Spain, let alone in it. The separatists are digging themselves a very deep hole. It's a real shame because Catalonia has been treated appallingly by the PP in Madrid.
Edit: this stands even with the below point about the boycott by pro-Spain parties.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/905027108040265728
The problem is that the separatists are now playing totally into Madrid's hands. There is no winning scenario for them from here on in. I feel very sorry for the people of Catalonia, who are being let down massively by the politicians in Barcelona and Madrid.
Mr. Observer, increased divisiveness would seem to favour those who prefer separation, to my mind. As you say, it does sound rather tricky.
https://twitter.com/thespainreport/status/905755956121915392
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/07/dianne-feinstein-california-primary-2018-242409
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/905816253427834880
FDP, Gruene, Linke and AfD all very close.
https://twitter.com/GusJaspert
The only thing I can think of is that it would look bad to link any other issues to the Harvey aid bill.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/7502-bank-of-england-to-cut-rates-and-add-to-qe-in-december-says-ubs
https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/dom+dujac+mont+luisant+morey+st+denis+premier+cru+cote+de+nuit+burgundy+france
lower interest rates will hurt the economy
Carney is another fine mess Osborne got us in to