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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Germany: a predictable election?

Graphic: The most recent German polling, further details available here

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

Every single German I speak to when asked if Merkel will win replies with definitive "of course".

DavidL

Yep, as I have said a couple of times the 6/1 for Jamaica looks the best value available. It may take a wee while to deliver though. Such a Coalition is not comprised of natural bed fellows and is likely to take some negotiation.

Richard_Nabavi

Great article, thanks Nick.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

Great article, thanks Nick.

Seconded.

TheScreamingEagles

Many thanks Nick for this brilliant article.

Charles

@foxinsoxuk FPT

If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.

Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?

Richard_Nabavi

Charles said:

@foxinsoxuk FPT

If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.

Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?

Because it is passing-off, a fraud on the consumer, to sell a product on the basis of the reputation of a product of a particular origin when it doesn't actually come from there.

If Sussex makes good sparkling wines (which it does), then that's great. They should sell it as premium Sussex sparkling wine, not pretend it's Champagne.

William_H

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

tlg86

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Yes.

Scott_P

@SamCoatesTimes: ERG scrambling to defend themselves over leaked letter. Claim it's supportive of PM (it's not really as hinders her room for manoeuvre) and

@SamCoatesTimes: seeking to blame outside lobby group Change Britain. Now Change Britain did come up w/ idea but Suella distributed the letter to colleagues

Charles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

@foxinsoxuk FPT

If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.

Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?

Because it is passing-off, a fraud on the consumer, to sell a product on the basis of the reputation of a product of a particular origin when it doesn't actually come from there.

If Sussex makes good sparkling wines (which it does), then that's great. They should sell it as premium Sussex sparkling wine, not pretend it's Champagne.

Set the specifications then, to ensure that it's not passing off. Champagne may not be the best example because of the variation in the climate, etc.

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

dixiedean

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

At a national level, yes. Although they are part of the coalitions in Bradenburg, Thuringia ( which they lead) and Berlin.

Nigelb

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

@foxinsoxuk FPT

If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.

Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?

Because it is passing-off, a fraud on the consumer, to sell a product on the basis of the reputation of a product of a particular origin when it doesn't actually come from there.

If Sussex makes good sparkling wines (which it does), then that's great. They should sell it as premium Sussex sparkling wine, not pretend it's Champagne.

Set the specifications then, to ensure that it's not passing off. Champagne may not be the best example because of the variation in the climate, etc.

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

One might make exactly the same observation about trade marks, which are quite happily enforced in the EU and US without quite such squabbles.

In any event, when it comes to premium cheeses, 'formula' doesn't really describe the biological complexity - a bit like the difficulty in getting biosimilars approved by medicines regulatory agencies.

Richard_Nabavi

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

SouthamObserver

The EU IP position paper is the first one covering an area that I have in-depth knowledge of. If other EU papers are of a similar standard then they are not worth bothering with. It reads like someone got bored of writing it after the first page and started to look for ways to finish it as quickly as possible. There is almost no insight there at all - though as I said on the previous thread the GI stuff is interesting for wider trade and regulatory reasons.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Sandpit

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Thanks for that, always love watching these launches and landings.

Charles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

SouthamObserver

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

SouthamObserver

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

@foxinsoxuk FPT

If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.

Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?

Because it is passing-off, a fraud on the consumer, to sell a product on the basis of the reputation of a product of a particular origin when it doesn't actually come from there.

If Sussex makes good sparkling wines (which it does), then that's great. They should sell it as premium Sussex sparkling wine, not pretend it's Champagne.

Set the specifications then, to ensure that it's not passing off. Champagne may not be the best example because of the variation in the climate, etc.

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

One might make exactly the same observation about trade marks, which are quite happily enforced in the EU and US without quite such squabbles.

In any event, when it comes to premium cheeses, 'formula' doesn't really describe the biological complexity - a bit like the difficulty in getting biosimilars approved by medicines regulatory agencies.

By and large GIs are trademarks in the US. The are not seen as a distinct type of geographically-based intellectual property.

Theuniondivvie

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

US Budweiser v. Budweiser Budvar.

I'll say they diverged!

Theuniondivvie

On topic.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/905788806997188609

SouthamObserver

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

You could not trademark Parmigiano Reggiano as it's entirely descriptive of the product - a generic term.

stodge

Afternoon all

Can I echo the general appreciation of Nick P's excellent piece. Kudos, sir !

There's not much more to add - the current composition of the Bundestag has CDU/CSU on 309, SPD on 193, Greens on 64 and Die Linke on 63. It seems likely both CDU/CSU and SPD will be down a little if both FDP and AfD make it back which seems probable.

Merkel has not followed the British or New Zealand examples of a Prime Minister leaving, their successor enjoying a honeymoon period but that proving ephemeral in the heat of an election campaign.

I note on Allensbach CDU/CSU plus FDP is now 48.5% which is tantalisingly close to a workable Government.

Charles

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

Budvar/Budweiser shows what happens when it gets nasty...

edit... beaten by @Theuniondivvie Oh, the shame!

welshowl

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

Yes, whilst I can see it might conceivably complicate things with a US FTA a tad if US "Parmesan" is banned and has to be labelled "Wisconsin Parmesan" or "Milwaukee crumbly salty hard cheese" or whatever I cannot see it derailing the whole process on its own.

That said, one would have to have no taste buds not to recognise that European cheeses (and I include our own fine offerings) are light years ahead of anything else I've ever seen on this Earth.

As long as stuff is properly labelled (and yes, there's a tale) the consumer should be free to make a choice. "Kenosha medium hard yellow cheese" might be God awful for all I know, but it might still find a market if it's £3 a kilo cheaper than the stuff from the Netherlands just marked "Gouda".

Pong

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

Charles

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

You could not trademark Parmigiano Reggiano as it's entirely descriptive of the product - a generic term.

Fair enough. My point was to find a trademark for products from a specific area.

Presumably something like "Product of Scotland" on a bottle of whisky would differentiate it from Belgian "Scotch"

Richard_Nabavi

welshowl said:

As long as stuff is properly labelled (and yes, there's a tale) the consumer should be free to make a choice. "Kenosha medium hard yellow cheese" might be God awful for all I know, but it might still find a market if it's £3 a kilo cheaper than the stuff from the Netherlands just marked "Gouda".

When it comes to cheese, a good rule of thumb which will almost never let you down is: avoid it like the plague if it's American.

TGOHF

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

Plenty of food products are successful by focusing on brand quality and innovation without having to rely on protectionism.

French rely on just sticking the word "champagne" on the bottle to enable them to sell any old fizzy plonk. The new world now kicks their behind on wine - only these last remaining snobbish regional cartels prevent a total implosion of sales.

Richard_Nabavi

TGOHF said:

French rely on just sticking the word "champagne" on the bottle to enable them to sell any old fizzy plonk. The new world now kicks their behind on wine - only these last remaining snobbish regional cartels prevent a total implosion of sales.

So why would non-Champagne producers want to steal the name?

Richard_Tyndall

TGOHF said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

Plenty of food products are successful by focusing on brand quality and innovation without having to rely on protectionism.

French rely on just sticking the word "champagne" on the bottle to enable them to sell any old fizzy plonk. The new world now kicks their behind on wine - only these last remaining snobbish regional cartels prevent a total implosion of sales.

Though to be honest I have still to find a single wine from anywhere in the world that gives me as much pleasure as a St Julien or St Estephe.

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Thanks for that, always love watching these launches and landings.

Landed.

And for the WI, all Hopes are gone...

Blue_rog

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Impressive

Richard_Nabavi

This is becoming exactly the major disaster which I feared when the election result came in:

Kate Hoey, the Labour pro-leave MP, is speaking now. She says she is disappointed that Labour is voting against the bill. That will be seen as a refusal to accept the results of the referendum, she says.

She says she will only accept a transition period if from day one Britain has made it clear it will not pay any more money to the EU.

The Conservative John Redwood intervenes to say he agrees.

We may accidentally get marooned in the worst of all possible chaotic Brexits because of an unholy alliance between unrealistic Remainers, head-banging Leavers, and a cynical opposition party, especially given the lack of realism and the greed on the EU27 side.

Ishmael_Z

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Awesome.

Are you aware of https://www.centauri-dreams.org/ by the way? Blog of Paul Gilster about interstellar travel, for when you want a complete change from PB. Closely connected with Breakthrough Starshot.

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Thanks for that, always love watching these launches and landings.

Landed.

And for the WI, all Hopes are gone...

Awesome, again. Bringing down the cost of space flight one landing at a time.

WI Test cricket is sadly dying on its feet this summer.

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

welshowl said:

As long as stuff is properly labelled (and yes, there's a tale) the consumer should be free to make a choice. "Kenosha medium hard yellow cheese" might be God awful for all I know, but it might still find a market if it's £3 a kilo cheaper than the stuff from the Netherlands just marked "Gouda".

When it comes to cheese, a good rule of thumb which will almost never let you down is: avoid it like the plague if it's American.

A rule of thumb - but I've tasted some exceptional cheeses produced in Sonoma.

dixiedean

Pong said:

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

Interesting. What exactly are Rudd and Hammond's thoughtcrimes? It seems raising pertinent issues and asking difficult questions (in private) ought to be a fundamental part of a Cabinet Minister's job.
Banks is an arse.
It would be the height of irony if a wave of entryist-inspired de-selections were to take place in the Conservative Party!
Nowt would surprise me these days.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

welshowl said:

As long as stuff is properly labelled (and yes, there's a tale) the consumer should be free to make a choice. "Kenosha medium hard yellow cheese" might be God awful for all I know, but it might still find a market if it's £3 a kilo cheaper than the stuff from the Netherlands just marked "Gouda".

When it comes to cheese, a good rule of thumb which will almost never let you down is: avoid it like the plague if it's American.

I have the same rule of thumb for beer.

619

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is becoming exactly the major disaster which I feared when the election result came in:

Kate Hoey, the Labour pro-leave MP, is speaking now. She says she is disappointed that Labour is voting against the bill. That will be seen as a refusal to accept the results of the referendum, she says.

She says she will only accept a transition period if from day one Britain has made it clear it will not pay any more money to the EU.

The Conservative John Redwood intervenes to say he agrees.

We may accidentally get marooned in the worst of all possible chaotic Brexits because of an unholy alliance between unrealistic Remainers, head-banging Leavers, and a cynical opposition party, especially given the lack of realism and the greed on the EU27 side.

This was always going to happen. All very predictable. No one is acting any differently as to how you would expect them to ( except the voters)

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Good article, Mr. Palmer. Must admit, short odds bets are not usually my thing but somewhat tempted by the Merkel 1.12. When's polling day?

Mr. Nabavi, indeed. It'd be slightly reminiscent of the Syria vote, whereby there was a massive majority for action but dancing on the head of a pin meant that neither the Opposition nor Government motions passed.

surbiton

tlg86 said:

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Yes.

There are quite a few Red-Red State coalitions, I am sure.

surbiton

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is becoming exactly the major disaster which I feared when the election result came in:

Kate Hoey, the Labour pro-leave MP, is speaking now. She says she is disappointed that Labour is voting against the bill. That will be seen as a refusal to accept the results of the referendum, she says.

She says she will only accept a transition period if from day one Britain has made it clear it will not pay any more money to the EU.

The Conservative John Redwood intervenes to say he agrees.

We may accidentally get marooned in the worst of all possible chaotic Brexits because of an unholy alliance between unrealistic Remainers, head-banging Leavers, and a cynical opposition party, especially given the lack of realism and the greed on the EU27 side.

So many groups are you criticising in one go ?

tpfkar

Discussed the election with my (German) wife last night. A few thoughts:

1) CDU / CSU will walk it. It did look different a few months ago when the CSU got awkward and threatened to withdraw support unless there were policy changes (especially around migrants) but they have come into line and are entirely supportive.
2) There was one leaders' debate between Merkel and Schulz, then another for the 5 smaller party leaders the next day. The CSU leader was at this, so there was effectively a CDU voice but no SPD voice - he used this to his advantage.
3) The real unsung success story is how Angela Merkel has dealt with the refugees issue; part moralising, part effective management and onward movement.
4) The AfD leader walked out of a debate the other night (not sure if it was the same as in #2) and it's got lots of coverage; they are the anti-everything party but this doesn't hit the German psyche the way it does over here.
5) We wouldn't advise putting money on the Jamaica coalition - neither the Greens (with a Turkish migrant leader putting some off) nor the FDP have any momentum and there's a real risk one will not hit the 5% threshold.
6) Remember the Defence Secretary who resigned over doctoring his PhD thesis? Van Guttenburg. He's suddenly started appearing everywhere as a pundit and is getting plenty of coverage. The comeback is well underway, and he's worth keeping an eye on if there's a next Chancellor market.

Richard_Nabavi

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is becoming exactly the major disaster which I feared when the election result came in:

Kate Hoey, the Labour pro-leave MP, is speaking now. She says she is disappointed that Labour is voting against the bill. That will be seen as a refusal to accept the results of the referendum, she says.

She says she will only accept a transition period if from day one Britain has made it clear it will not pay any more money to the EU.

The Conservative John Redwood intervenes to say he agrees.

We may accidentally get marooned in the worst of all possible chaotic Brexits because of an unholy alliance between unrealistic Remainers, head-banging Leavers, and a cynical opposition party, especially given the lack of realism and the greed on the EU27 side.

So many groups are you criticising in one go ?

I can easily add a few more if you think I haven't fully covered the ground.

williamglenn

Richard_Nabavi said:

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is becoming exactly the major disaster which I feared when the election result came in:

Kate Hoey, the Labour pro-leave MP, is speaking now. She says she is disappointed that Labour is voting against the bill. That will be seen as a refusal to accept the results of the referendum, she says.

She says she will only accept a transition period if from day one Britain has made it clear it will not pay any more money to the EU.

The Conservative John Redwood intervenes to say he agrees.

We may accidentally get marooned in the worst of all possible chaotic Brexits because of an unholy alliance between unrealistic Remainers, head-banging Leavers, and a cynical opposition party, especially given the lack of realism and the greed on the EU27 side.

So many groups are you criticising in one go ?

I can easily add a few more if you think I haven't fully covered the ground.

Complacent managerialists who overestimate the degree of control people like them have over events?

Morris_Dancer

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

FrancisUrquhart

It appears the version of the WI team that couldn't compete in the Birmingham League has turned up today.

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

It appears the version of the WI team that couldn't compete in the Birmingham League has turned up today.

That’s a little harsh on the hardworking teams of the Birmingham league!

NickPalmer

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Not entirely. Schulz has left the door ajar and there have been state coalitions where Die Linke are seen as solidly respectable (indeed in some cases more cautious than the SPD - the former Communists are as attuned to German respectability and caution as anyone, though the party also has a New Left following which is a lot less responsible).

But on current polling it doesn't arise.

Thanks for the kind comments, all. Polling day is 24 September.

Sandpit

NickPalmer said:

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Not entirely. Schulz has left the door ajar and there have been state coalitions where Die Linke are seen as solidly respectable (indeed in some cases more cautious than the SPD - the former Communists are as attuned to German respectability and caution as anyone, though the party also has a New Left following which is a lot less responsible).

But on current polling it doesn't arise.

Thanks for the kind comments, all. Polling day is 24 September.

Good article Nick, something of an introduction to the vagaries and nuances of German politics.

Philip_Thompson

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

Philip_Thompson

dixiedean said:

Pong said:

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

Interesting. What exactly are Rudd and Hammond's thoughtcrimes? It seems raising pertinent issues and asking difficult questions (in private) ought to be a fundamental part of a Cabinet Minister's job.
Banks is an arse.
It would be the height of irony if a wave of entryist-inspired de-selections were to take place in the Conservative Party!
Nowt would surprise me these days.

Opposition supporter criticises government ministers.

How is that news?
Pong, how is that destroying "the once great Conservative party"?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Thompson, that's expected turnout, the 72/28, I think, is of the 50% who say they'll vote.

CarlottaVance

OGH tweets:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/905800816040300545

Must have just pipped TSE........

Mortimer

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Not entirely. Schulz has left the door ajar and there have been state coalitions where Die Linke are seen as solidly respectable (indeed in some cases more cautious than the SPD - the former Communists are as attuned to German respectability and caution as anyone, though the party also has a New Left following which is a lot less responsible).

But on current polling it doesn't arise.

Thanks for the kind comments, all. Polling day is 24 September.

Good article Nick, something of an introduction to the vagaries and nuances of German politics.

Agreed. Thanks Nick.

CarlottaVance

Mortimer said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Not entirely. Schulz has left the door ajar and there have been state coalitions where Die Linke are seen as solidly respectable (indeed in some cases more cautious than the SPD - the former Communists are as attuned to German respectability and caution as anyone, though the party also has a New Left following which is a lot less responsible).

But on current polling it doesn't arise.

Thanks for the kind comments, all. Polling day is 24 September.

Good article Nick, something of an introduction to the vagaries and nuances of German politics.

Agreed. Thanks Nick.

+1

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

OGH tweets:

twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/905800816040300545

Must have just pipped TSE........

I reckon Corbyn's slippage is all down to the claiming he wants to become a vegan ;-)

CarlottaVance

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

williamglenn

The Evening Standard and George Osborne get another mention in the Commons. He's there in spirit if not in body.

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

OGH tweets:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/905800816040300545

Must have just pipped TSE........

To be honest I'm still processing/reeling from this.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/905800064001605633

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

Of course they are popular. So is nationalising the railways. As was the Iraq war.

SouthamObserver

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

david_herdson

Very good thread from Nick, and one to which it's difficult to add anything useful.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Observer, that's a daft way of putting it. You can't impute political opinions to people who have refused the opportunity to express them. One might as well say (if there a 72% Yes on 50% turnout) that only 14% of the electorate wanted to remain part of Spain.

Theuniondivvie

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

Or in other, other words, even more of the electorate will not vote for Spain indivisible?

Philip_Thompson

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

36% separation, 25% for remaining, 50% don't care enough to vote.

If you don't care enough to vote you don't get counted.

SouthamObserver

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, that's a daft way of putting it. You can't impute political opinions to people who have refused the opportunity to express them. One might as well say (if there a 72% Yes on 50% turnout) that only 14% of the electorate wanted to remain part of Spain.

In this case, though, there is an active boycott of the poll by the pro-Spain parties. They have told their supporters not to take part.

UDI on less than 50% of the electorate's support is not a great look and will make the Catalan case even harder to make outside Spain, let alone in it. The separatists are digging themselves a very deep hole. It's a real shame because Catalonia has been treated appallingly by the PP in Madrid.

Essexit

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

That's an odd bar to set. It's very rare for most of a country's electorate to vote for something. The only examples might be former colonies ratifying their independence, or the Falklands/Gibraltar expressing a wish to stay British.

Edit: this stands even with the below point about the boycott by pro-Spain parties.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Observer, is that a wise move by pro-Spain parties?

AndyJS

Apparently some people get advance viewing of the exit poll, before 10pm:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/905027108040265728

SouthamObserver

Theuniondivvie said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

Or in other, other words, even more of the electorate will not vote for Spain indivisible?

Given the choice, most Catalans would probably vote for what the Basques have - essentially home rule inside Spain. But the PP took that choice away, despite it being agreed with the previous PSOE government and overwhelmingly endorsed in a referendum in Catalonia.

The problem is that the separatists are now playing totally into Madrid's hands. There is no winning scenario for them from here on in. I feel very sorry for the people of Catalonia, who are being let down massively by the politicians in Barcelona and Madrid.

Nigelb

CarlottaVance said:

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

British public votes for yet more red tape...

Essexit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, is that a wise move by pro-Spain parties?

I suppose participation legitimises a referendum the Catalan government isn't technically allowed to hold. If the Yes side somehow won with the Remain in Spain parties taking part, they'd have shot themselves in the foot.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. JS, wasn't it widely reported that the PM (and probably LotO too) got slightly early viewing? Not a huge surprise, frankly.

Mr. Observer, increased divisiveness would seem to favour those who prefer separation, to my mind. As you say, it does sound rather tricky.

SouthamObserver

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

36% separation, 25% for remaining, 50% don't care enough to vote.

If you don't care enough to vote you don't get counted.

The referendum has been declared illegal and its result cannot be enforced. In the abstract, I agree with you; but in practical terms, the turnout will have a huge effect on how the result is perceived. If you are going to unilaterally declare independence you need to do it with the unambiguous support of the overwhelming majority of the electorate.

Morris_Dancer

Meanwhile, having said it wants a separate deal for NI to the rest of the UK, the EU suddenly decides nation-states constitutional arrangements must be respected:
https://twitter.com/thespainreport/status/905755956121915392

SouthamObserver

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. JS, wasn't it widely reported that the PM (and probably LotO too) got slightly early viewing? Not a huge surprise, frankly.

Mr. Observer, increased divisiveness would seem to favour those who prefer separation, to my mind. As you say, it does sound rather tricky.

It is absolutely poisonous over there now. And it is going to get worse. However, there will be no separation. Not a chance. And you can quote me on that!

FrancisUrquhart

Birmingham League seconds all out for 123. Hope nobody has Day 3 tickets.

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

British public votes for yet more red tape...

we are getting more european

Nigelb

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

British public votes for yet more red tape...

we are getting more european

With all the costs and none of the benefits, apparently.

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

British public votes for yet more red tape...

we are getting more european

With all the costs and none of the benefits, apparently.

if you want the benefits you have to adopt european labour law

Nigelb

Feinstein might get primaried:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/07/dianne-feinstein-california-primary-2018-242409

CarlottaVance

Wonder if she'll be meeting any other Party Leaders:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/905816253427834880

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Wonder if she'll be meeting any other Party Leaders:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/905816253427834880

probably not Catalan ones

Sean_F

Pong said:

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

The Conservatives did win 318 seats. It's a bit premature to talk of their being "destroyed."

rottenborough

EU debate adjourned until Monday.

Sean_F

Theuniondivvie said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

US Budweiser v. Budweiser Budvar.

I'll say they diverged!

US Budweiser is gnats piss. Prohibition killed off US beer-making for good, as all the German breweries and beer gardens in the Mid-West got shut down.

logical_song

It will be interesting to see what the smaller parties actually achieve.
FDP, Gruene, Linke and AfD all very close.

CarlottaVance

You've gotta feel for the Governor of the BVI - he's only been in the job two weeks:

https://twitter.com/GusJaspert

Sean_F

Richard_Tyndall said:

TGOHF said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

Plenty of food products are successful by focusing on brand quality and innovation without having to rely on protectionism.

French rely on just sticking the word "champagne" on the bottle to enable them to sell any old fizzy plonk. The new world now kicks their behind on wine - only these last remaining snobbish regional cartels prevent a total implosion of sales.

Though to be honest I have still to find a single wine from anywhere in the world that gives me as much pleasure as a St Julien or St Estephe.

Baron de Ley or Muriel for me.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, didn't that end about 90 years ago?

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, didn't that end about 90 years ago?

It was still a death-blow to their beer culture.

logical_song

Sean_F said:

Pong said:

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

The Conservatives did win 318 seats. It's a bit premature to talk of their being "destroyed."

Just decimated?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Song, they didn't lose over 30 seats net.

surbiton

Can someone with knowledge of the American political system explain why this Trump-Democrats agreement to defer the debt-ceiling vote to December help the Democrats ?

The only thing I can think of is that it would look bad to link any other issues to the Harvey aid bill.

Pulpstar

Madness lol
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/7502-bank-of-england-to-cut-rates-and-add-to-qe-in-december-says-ubs

Charles

Richard_Tyndall said:

TGOHF said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

Plenty of food products are successful by focusing on brand quality and innovation without having to rely on protectionism.

French rely on just sticking the word "champagne" on the bottle to enable them to sell any old fizzy plonk. The new world now kicks their behind on wine - only these last remaining snobbish regional cartels prevent a total implosion of sales.

Though to be honest I have still to find a single wine from anywhere in the world that gives me as much pleasure as a St Julien or St Estephe.

*ahem*

https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/dom+dujac+mont+luisant+morey+st+denis+premier+cru+cote+de+nuit+burgundy+france

Alanbrooke

Pulpstar said:

Madness lol
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/7502-bank-of-england-to-cut-rates-and-add-to-qe-in-december-says-ubs

ridiculous

lower interest rates will hurt the economy

Carney is another fine mess Osborne got us in to