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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Germany: a predictable election?

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    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:


    But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

    Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

    The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

    US Budweiser v. Budweiser Budvar.

    I'll say they diverged!
    US Budweiser is gnats piss. Prohibition killed off US beer-making for good, as all the German breweries and beer gardens in the Mid-West got shut down.
    Lots of good American craft beers these days...The big brands are universally terrible.
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    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 714
    edited September 2017
    Vielen dank Nick, great article!

    Autumn election timetable is currently as follows:

    Mon 11 Sep Norway

    Sat 23 Sep New Zealand

    Sun 24 Sep Germany

    Sun 15 Oct Austria

    Fri/Sat 20/21 Oct Czech Republic

    Tue 7 Nov New Jersey & Virginia Governors

    Sun 19 Nov/17 Dec Chile Presidential

    Finally, negotiations on the new Dutch government continue (election was 15th March!) between VVD, CDA, D66, and CU.

    Best wishes to the PB team and posters!

    DC
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    Good to see you on, Mr. Carpet. Don't forget the Catalonian vote on 1 October.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited September 2017

    Vielen dank Nick, great article!

    Autumn election timetable is currently as follows:

    Mon 11 Sep Norway

    Sat 23 Sep New Zealand

    Sun 24 Sep Germany

    Sun 15 Oct Austria

    Fri/Sat 20/21 Oct Czech Republic

    Tue 7 Nov New Jersey & Virginia Governors

    Sun 19 Nov/17 Dec Chile Presidential

    Finally, negotiations on the new Dutch government continue (election was 15th March!) between VVD, CDA, D66, and CU.

    Best wishes to the PB team and posters!

    DC

    Tue 17 Oct Kenya
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    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 714
    edited September 2017
    Ah yes thanks for the additions!
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    Mr Chapman's summer not getting any brighter:

    https://order-order.com/2017/09/07/bell-pottinger-brink-administration
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    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:


    But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

    Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

    The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

    US Budweiser v. Budweiser Budvar.

    I'll say they diverged!
    US Budweiser is gnats piss. Prohibition killed off US beer-making for good, as all the German breweries and beer gardens in the Mid-West got shut down.
    Lots of good American craft beers these days...The big brands are universally terrible.

    Beer quality is much improved in the US. In the big cities most bars will have at least a couple of decent brews on tap - Sam Adams, Sierra Nevada, Anchor Steam etc. Long gone are the days when it was Budweiser and Miller Lite. Thank the Lord.

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    Guardian:

    Jeremy Corbyn’s former campaign director and chief of staff, Simon Fletcher, has joined the campaign to get Richard Leonard, the favourite of Corbyn supporters, elected as the next leader of Scottish Labour.
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    Vielen dank Nick, great article!

    Autumn election timetable is currently as follows:

    Mon 11 Sep Norway

    Sat 23 Sep New Zealand

    Sun 24 Sep Germany

    Sun 15 Oct Austria

    Fri/Sat 20/21 Oct Czech Republic

    Tue 7 Nov New Jersey & Virginia Governors

    Sun 19 Nov/17 Dec Chile Presidential

    Finally, negotiations on the new Dutch government continue (election was 15th March!) between VVD, CDA, D66, and CU.

    Best wishes to the PB team and posters!

    DC

    Good to see you again DC, and thanks for the list!
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    Sean_F said:

    Pong said:

    This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

    The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

    The Conservatives did win 318 seats. It's a bit premature to talk of their being "destroyed."
    Just decimated?
    Decimation was 1997.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,772
    edited September 2017
    If you have day 3 tickets for the cricket...You won't be using them!
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,533
    Depressingly, it's probably not.
    Had she turned up she'd almost certainly have said something unfortunate...
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Why on earth would she do that?

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    Pulpstar said:
    Why the F are they even thinking about cutting rates? The interest rate being on the floor is the root cause of a whole load of problems, from house prices to pensions to the savings rate - they need to be edged up towards 2% over the course of the next couple of years.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,533
    Charles said:

    Why on earth would she do that?

    I'm sure she asked the same question about attending the election debate...
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    Charles said:

    Why on earth would she do that?

    So she could enjoy the convivial welcome for which MEPs are renowned?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Charles said:

    Why on earth would she do that?

    So she could enjoy the convivial welcome for which MEPs are renowned?
    Can't believe she's not offering to speak at the Labour conference too ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    Merkel will clearly remain Chancellor but in my view as head of a minority government.The SPD have no desire it seems for another Grand Coalition and if the AfD do indeed come third (comparisons with Le Pen and Wilders should remember that both still came second) then the CSU will almost certainly veto a Jamaica coalition as any deal with the Greens ahead of the AfD would go down like a lead balloon in their base of Bavaria, the most conservative state in Germany.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    edited September 2017
    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this:
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs
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    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458

    You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

    More Labour voters support the proposal than oppose interestingly, only LD and SNP voters opposed
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan was voicing his opposition to Brown’s hypocritical stance of supporting free movement when in the EU Parliament yet going on about BJ4BW when back in the UK.

    I’d be very surprised if Dan Hannan has ever supported state funding for any industry, he’s a free-market libertarian.
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    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    Vince Cable on BBC London News!
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    Vielen dank Nick, great article!

    Autumn election timetable is currently as follows:

    Mon 11 Sep Norway

    Sat 23 Sep New Zealand

    Sun 24 Sep Germany

    Sun 15 Oct Austria

    Fri/Sat 20/21 Oct Czech Republic

    Tue 7 Nov New Jersey & Virginia Governors

    Sun 19 Nov/17 Dec Chile Presidential

    Finally, negotiations on the new Dutch government continue (election was 15th March!) between VVD, CDA, D66, and CU.

    Best wishes to the PB team and posters!

    DC

    Thanks old chap.

    Norway could be interesting. It looks likely that the Greens might gain a few more than their single MP and could hold the balance of power. They have stated they want an immediate end to all new licencing for oil exploration which would have a massively detrimental effect on the Norwegian economy.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:


    But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

    Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

    The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

    US Budweiser v. Budweiser Budvar.

    I'll say they diverged!
    US Budweiser is gnats piss. Prohibition killed off US beer-making for good, as all the German breweries and beer gardens in the Mid-West got shut down.
    Lots of good American craft beers these days...
    As long as you like hops.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Why the F are they even thinking about cutting rates? The interest rate being on the floor is the root cause of a whole load of problems, from house prices to pensions to the savings rate - they need to be edged up towards 2% over the course of the next couple of years.
    +1
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    tlg86 said:

    Vince Cable on BBC London News!

    London talking to London
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    edited September 2017

    tlg86 said:

    Vince Cable on BBC London News!

    London talking to London
    Unfortunately we're stuck with it in Woking. Here's the news line up tonight:

    1) Hate crimes against LGBT people in London.
    2) Stop Brexit march in London on Saturday.
    3) Police investigating the guy who made paedophile allegations against politicians.
    4) Last night of the proms on Saturday.
    5) Firefighters from Kensington on holiday in Cornwall.
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    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Vince Cable on BBC London News!

    London talking to London
    Unfortunately we're stuck with it in Woking. Here's the news line up tonight:

    1) Hate crimes against LGBT people in London.
    2) Stop Brexit march in London on Saturday.
    3) Police investigating the guy who made paedophile allegations against politicians.
    4) Last night of the proms on Saturday.
    5) Firefighters from Kensington on holiday in Cornwall.
    4 is good
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    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.

    He sat on the Vote Leave campaign committee. He put his name to a campaign based on lies, and he's a proven liar in his own right.
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    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Vince Cable on BBC London News!

    London talking to London
    Unfortunately we're stuck with it in Woking. Here's the news line up tonight:

    1) Hate crimes against LGBT people in London.
    2) Stop Brexit march in London on Saturday.
    3) Police investigating the guy who made paedophile allegations against politicians.
    4) Last night of the proms on Saturday.
    5) Firefighters from Kensington on holiday in Cornwall.
    4 is good
    I cannot remember a time when the broadcast media and commentators were so out of step with the ordinary voter
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Vince Cable on BBC London News!

    London talking to London
    Unfortunately we're stuck with it in Woking. Here's the news line up tonight:

    1) Hate crimes against LGBT people in London.
    2) Stop Brexit march in London on Saturday.
    3) Police investigating the guy who made paedophile allegations against politicians.
    4) Last night of the proms on Saturday.
    5) Firefighters from Kensington on holiday in Cornwall.
    4 is good
    I don't disagree, but I think with the exception of the last story - and even that's dubious - they are all national stories that are happening in London. There is nothing on that list that is what I would consider to be local news.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Vince Cable on BBC London News!

    London talking to London
    Unfortunately we're stuck with it in Woking. Here's the news line up tonight:

    1) Hate crimes against LGBT people in London.
    2) Stop Brexit march in London on Saturday.
    3) Police investigating the guy who made paedophile allegations against politicians.
    4) Last night of the proms on Saturday.
    5) Firefighters from Kensington on holiday in Cornwall.
    4 is good
    I cannot remember a time when the broadcast media and commentators were so out of step with the ordinary voter
    Yes we want to see George going to school, bugger the hurricane and everything else
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    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.

    He sat on the Vote Leave campaign committee. He put his name to a campaign based on lies, and he's a proven liar in his own right.
    Nope he made it clear at all times what his position was. Vote Leave was a coalition of many different ideas and aspirations united by the one basic fact that they wanted out of the EU. It is only you Euronutters who try and say everyone should believe the same things.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Vince Cable on BBC London News!

    London talking to London
    Unfortunately we're stuck with it in Woking. Here's the news line up tonight:

    1) Hate crimes against LGBT people in London.
    2) Stop Brexit march in London on Saturday.
    3) Police investigating the guy who made paedophile allegations against politicians.
    4) Last night of the proms on Saturday.
    5) Firefighters from Kensington on holiday in Cornwall.
    Not clear whether 2) was Chapman's brain child or something he just tagged onto. It all looks a bit embarrassing, check out the D listy look and feel of the speakers, and the rather desperate plea "If you represent a group or have recommendations for speakers please use the form at the bottom of this page to let us know."

    https://peoplesmarch4eu.org/the-event/
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    edited September 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Vince Cable on BBC London News!

    London talking to London
    Unfortunately we're stuck with it in Woking. Here's the news line up tonight:

    1) Hate crimes against LGBT people in London.
    2) Stop Brexit march in London on Saturday.
    3) Police investigating the guy who made paedophile allegations against politicians.
    4) Last night of the proms on Saturday.
    5) Firefighters from Kensington on holiday in Cornwall.
    Not clear whether 2) was Chapman's brain child or something he just tagged onto. It all looks a bit embarrassing, check out the D listy look and feel of the speakers, and the rather desperate plea "If you represent a group or have recommendations for speakers please use the form at the bottom of this page to let us know."

    https://peoplesmarch4eu.org/the-event/
    We are working with the London Metropolitan Police who will make sure everything is safe and secure before the march begins. Please be courteous to them and let them do their job. There will be press and media from around the world filming the march.

    I think they're being a bit optimistic!
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    An interesting report was published by the UN yesterday, stating, amongst other things, that Syria is till using chemical weapons:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/middleeast/syria-chemical-weapons.html?mcubz=1

    And this was followed by Israel's 'alleged' attack on Syria last night:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41184867
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2017
    She prefers detail. She is not a people person. Exactly opposite of Boris, I'd say.

    I am not sure why you guys never seemed to be interested in easily the best person for the top job. He only lives next door.
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    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
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    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.

    He sat on the Vote Leave campaign committee. He put his name to a campaign based on lies, and he's a proven liar in his own right.
    Nope he made it clear at all times what his position was. Vote Leave was a coalition of many different ideas and aspirations united by the one basic fact that they wanted out of the EU. It is only you Euronutters who try and say everyone should believe the same things.
    When his position was that leaving would allow us to cut tariffs on Chilean wine he was either lying or not doing his job as an MEP properly. He is a post-truth demagogue.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    That's the beauty of the internet age. You can lie some of the time, but you will get caught most of the time.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,089

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Since the government intends that EU nationals will have Settled Status, that's fair comment on Hannan's part.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Every single German I speak to when asked if Merkel will win replies with definitive "of course".

    Just about every single one of my friends voted to "remain".
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    edited September 2017
    JRM has ruled himself out as a leadership contendor and instead backs Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman and Tonbridge and Malling MP Thomas Tugendhat, “He would be a much, much better candidate,” Rees-Mogg on Tuesday assured ConHome. “I’m a founder member of Tugmentum.”

    https://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2017/09/profile-tom-tugendhat-successful-insurgent-and-a-possible-future-tory-leader.html

    If he wants to take over as PM in government he needs a big ministerial role first, though he is a good prospect, my mother remembers him as a boy when she was playing tennis with his mother
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    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:

    "the Government, opposition parties and every candidate standing to be the next Conservative Party leader – and hence Prime Minister – to make an unequivocal statement that EU migrants currently living in the UK are welcome here, and that changes would apply only to new migrants. A clear commitment to protect the status of EU migrants was made by the official Vote Leave campaign – and it must be honoured."

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
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    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    That's the beauty of the internet age. You can lie some of the time, but you will get caught most of the time.
    And quote it out of context, and dishonestly in this case as he has repeated it since the vote.
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    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.

    He sat on the Vote Leave campaign committee. He put his name to a campaign based on lies, and he's a proven liar in his own right.
    Nope he made it clear at all times what his position was. Vote Leave was a coalition of many different ideas and aspirations united by the one basic fact that they wanted out of the EU. It is only you Euronutters who try and say everyone should believe the same things.
    When his position was that leaving would allow us to cut tariffs on Chilean wine he was either lying or not doing his job as an MEP properly. He is a post-truth demagogue.
    Not at all. Since his preferred option was along the lines of the EEA agreement we could very well have protected the status of EU citizens but been able to cut tariffs on Chilean wine as any other EFTA state can do should they choose. So it is you who are either lying or stupid.
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    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.

    He sat on the Vote Leave campaign committee. He put his name to a campaign based on lies, and he's a proven liar in his own right.
    Nope he made it clear at all times what his position was. Vote Leave was a coalition of many different ideas and aspirations united by the one basic fact that they wanted out of the EU. It is only you Euronutters who try and say everyone should believe the same things.
    When his position was that leaving would allow us to cut tariffs on Chilean wine he was either lying or not doing his job as an MEP properly. He is a post-truth demagogue.
    Not at all. Since his preferred option was along the lines of the EEA agreement we could very well have protected the status of EU citizens but been able to cut tariffs on Chilean wine as any other EFTA state can do should they choose. So it is you who are either lying or stupid.
    You can't cut below 0%, unless you are proposing import subsidies on Chilean wine?

    The EU signed an FTA with Chile in 2002 (before EFTA) and tariffs have long since been eliminated.

    Lying or stupid? It's hard to say...
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    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.

    He sat on the Vote Leave campaign committee. He put his name to a campaign based on lies, and he's a proven liar in his own right.
    Nope he made it clear at all times what his position was. Vote Leave was a coalition of many different ideas and aspirations united by the one basic fact that they wanted out of the EU. It is only you Euronutters who try and say everyone should believe the same things.
    When his position was that leaving would allow us to cut tariffs on Chilean wine he was either lying or not doing his job as an MEP properly. He is a post-truth demagogue.
    Not at all. Since his preferred option was along the lines of the EEA agreement we could very well have protected the status of EU citizens but been able to cut tariffs on Chilean wine as any other EFTA state can do should they choose. So it is you who are either lying or stupid.
    You can't cut below 0%, unless you are proposing import subsidies on Chilean wine?

    The EU signed an FTA with Chile in 2002 (before EFTA) and tariffs have long since been eliminated.

    Lying or stupid? It's hard to say...
    Oh I think you qualify for both.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    JRM has ruled himself out as a leadership contendor and instead backs Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman and Tonbridge and Malling MP Thomas Tugendhat, “He would be a much, much better candidate,” Rees-Mogg on Tuesday assured ConHome. “I’m a founder member of Tugmentum.”

    https://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2017/09/profile-tom-tugendhat-successful-insurgent-and-a-possible-future-tory-leader.html

    If he wants to take over as PM in government he needs a big ministerial role first, though he is a good prospect, my mother remembers him as a boy when she was playing tennis with his mother

    From the link: "He was educated at St Paul’s School in London, and read theology at Bristol University (he is a devout Roman Catholic), followed by a masters’ degree in Islamic studies at Caius College, Cambridge, which included learning Arabic in Yemen." This is a problem if he holds the same RC inspired views as JRM.
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    It's fascinating that so many of the people for whom tariffs and trade policy have become the most totemic issue relating to national sovereignty don't seem to have the slightest level of intellectual curiosity about the subject.
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    HYUFD said:

    Merkel will clearly remain Chancellor but in my view as head of a minority government.The SPD have no desire it seems for another Grand Coalition and if the AfD do indeed come third (comparisons with Le Pen and Wilders should remember that both still came second) then the CSU will almost certainly veto a Jamaica coalition as any deal with the Greens ahead of the AfD would go down like a lead balloon in their base of Bavaria, the most conservative state in Germany.

    AfD could come 3rd, but looking at the polls above they are just as likely to come 6th.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,089
    Toms said:

    Every single German I speak to when asked if Merkel will win replies with definitive "of course".

    Just about every single one of my friends voted to "remain".
    I'm sure Merkel will win, but I was sure the Conservatives would have a working majority, until 10 pm, on 8th June.
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    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Every single German I speak to when asked if Merkel will win replies with definitive "of course".

    Just about every single one of my friends voted to "remain".
    I'm sure Merkel will win, but I was sure the Conservatives would have a working majority, until 10 pm, on 8th June.
    When she first became Chancellor in 2005 the result was a shock because every poll had her party well ahead but in the end she only scraped in by the skin of her teeth. On the other hand, that time she was up against a ruthless campaigner in the form of Schroeder. I don't detect the same signs of a surprise brewing below the surface this time.
  • Options
    I wonder which is least concerned about the prospect of defeat...Merkel or the Australian cricket team for the ashes?
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:

    "the Government, opposition parties and every candidate standing to be the next Conservative Party leader – and hence Prime Minister – to make an unequivocal statement that EU migrants currently living in the UK are welcome here, and that changes would apply only to new migrants. A clear commitment to protect the status of EU migrants was made by the official Vote Leave campaign – and it must be honoured."

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
    It is indeed. That is all they had to say: that EU migrants are welcome here. That is what people want to hear. For many EU citizens, the question of whether their rights are protected by the ECJ or the Supreme Court is a second order problem.

    Instead we got a stony silence on the subject. Ambiguity. Statements saying we want to guarantee the rights without saying that we will.

    Does it matter? I would say it has caused enormous harm in terms of how we are perceived within the EU and has made the negotiations more difficult.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,772
    edited September 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Every single German I speak to when asked if Merkel will win replies with definitive "of course".

    Just about every single one of my friends voted to "remain".
    I'm sure Merkel will win, but I was sure the Conservatives would have a working majority, until 10 pm, on 8th June.
    Unlike May, she isn't new to this election lark and I am guessing she hasn't proposed a policy that appears as if they are going to start nicking the homes from people losing their marbles, while simultaneously not bothering to attack the opposition.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nielh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:

    "the Government, opposition parties and every candidate standing to be the next Conservative Party leader – and hence Prime Minister – to make an unequivocal statement that EU migrants currently living in the UK are welcome here, and that changes would apply only to new migrants. A clear commitment to protect the status of EU migrants was made by the official Vote Leave campaign – and it must be honoured."

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
    It is indeed. That is all they had to say: that EU migrants are welcome here. That is what people want to hear. For many EU citizens, the question of whether their rights are protected by the ECJ or the Supreme Court is a second order problem.

    Instead we got a stony silence on the subject. Ambiguity. Statements saying we want to guarantee the rights without saying that we will.

    Does it matter? I would say it has caused enormous harm in terms of how we are perceived within the EU and has made the negotiations more difficult.
    Except that the EU still does not want to give our citizens equivalent rights. If we had made this concession (generous and fair although would have been) they would have pocketed it and given nothing back.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    nielh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:

    "the Government, opposition parties and every candidate standing to be the next Conservative Party leader – and hence Prime Minister – to make an unequivocal statement that EU migrants currently living in the UK are welcome here, and that changes would apply only to new migrants. A clear commitment to protect the status of EU migrants was made by the official Vote Leave campaign – and it must be honoured."

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
    It is indeed. That is all they had to say: that EU migrants are welcome here. That is what people want to hear. For many EU citizens, the question of whether their rights are protected by the ECJ or the Supreme Court is a second order problem.

    Instead we got a stony silence on the subject. Ambiguity. Statements saying we want to guarantee the rights without saying that we will.

    Does it matter? I would say it has caused enormous harm in terms of how we are perceived within the EU and has made the negotiations more difficult.
    The situation is exactly reciprocal, though. All the EU had to say was that UK migrants were welcome there. Why did the EU not beat us to the draw on this, if they are so much nicer than us?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921
    Ishmael_Z said:

    nielh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:

    "the Government, opposition parties and every candidate standing to be the next Conservative Party leader – and hence Prime Minister – to make an unequivocal statement that EU migrants currently living in the UK are welcome here, and that changes would apply only to new migrants. A clear commitment to protect the status of EU migrants was made by the official Vote Leave campaign – and it must be honoured."

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
    It is indeed. That is all they had to say: that EU migrants are welcome here. That is what people want to hear. For many EU citizens, the question of whether their rights are protected by the ECJ or the Supreme Court is a second order problem.

    Instead we got a stony silence on the subject. Ambiguity. Statements saying we want to guarantee the rights without saying that we will.

    Does it matter? I would say it has caused enormous harm in terms of how we are perceived within the EU and has made the negotiations more difficult.
    The situation is exactly reciprocal, though. All the EU had to say was that UK migrants were welcome there. Why did the EU not beat us to the draw on this, if they are so much nicer than us?
    They absolutely did. They have been banging on about citizen rights and the importance of freedom of movement since the start. It is the UK side that doesn't want it.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2017
    FF43 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    nielh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:

    "the Government, opposition parties and every candidate standing to be the next Conservative Party leader – and hence Prime Minister – to make an unequivocal statement that EU migrants currently living in the UK are welcome here, and that changes would apply only to new migrants. A clear commitment to protect the status of EU migrants was made by the official Vote Leave campaign – and it must be honoured."

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
    It is indeed. That is all they had to say: that EU migrants are welcome here. That is what people want to hear. For many EU citizens, the question of whether their rights are protected by the ECJ or the Supreme Court is a second order problem.

    Instead we got a stony silence on the subject. Ambiguity. Statements saying we want to guarantee the rights without saying that we will.

    Does it matter? I would say it has caused enormous harm in terms of how we are perceived within the EU and has made the negotiations more difficult.
    The situation is exactly reciprocal, though. All the EU had to say was that UK migrants were welcome there. Why did the EU not beat us to the draw on this, if they are so much nicer than us?
    They absolutely did. They have been banging on about citizen rights and the importance of freedom of movement since the start. It is the UK side that doesn't want it.
    And making ridiculous demands that no nation would or has agreed to.


  • Options
    Couple robbed by drugs gang because plant in their garden smelt like cannabis

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/07/couple-harassed-drugs-gang-plant-garden-smelt-like-cannabis/
  • Options
    philiph said:

    FF43 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    nielh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:

    "the Government, opposition parties and every candidate standing to be the next Conservative Party leader – and hence Prime Minister – to make an unequivocal statement that EU migrants currently living in the UK are welcome here, and that changes would apply only to new migrants. A clear commitment to protect the status of EU migrants was made by the official Vote Leave campaign – and it must be honoured."

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
    It is indeed. That is all they had to say: that EU migrants are welcome here. That is what people want to hear. For many EU citizens, the question of whether their rights are protected by the ECJ or the Supreme Court is a second order problem.

    Instead we got a stony silence on the subject. Ambiguity. Statements saying we want to guarantee the rights without saying that we will.

    Does it matter? I would say it has caused enormous harm in terms of how we are perceived within the EU and has made the negotiations more difficult.
    The situation is exactly reciprocal, though. All the EU had to say was that UK migrants were welcome there. Why did the EU not beat us to the draw on this, if they are so much nicer than us?
    They absolutely did. They have been banging on about citizen rights and the importance of freedom of movement since the start. It is the UK side that doesn't want it.
    And making ridiculous demands that no nation would or had agreed to.
    The only demand they made was to follow the process set out in the treaty that we signed up to. No negotiation without notification.
  • Options
    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    FF43 - But then, Germany has blocked family members from joining asylum seekers in Germany, but insists the third world should be able to join their eastern european 'wives' in migrating to the UK. It is all about social dumping by Germany.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    FF43 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    nielh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:
    Snip

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
    It is indeed. That is all they had to say: that EU migrants are welcome here. That is what people want to hear. For many EU citizens, the question of whether their rights are protected by the ECJ or the Supreme Court is a second order problem.

    Instead we got a stony silence on the subject. Ambiguity. Statements saying we want to guarantee the rights without saying that we will.

    Does it matter? I would say it has caused enormous harm in terms of how we are perceived within the EU and has made the negotiations more difficult.
    The situation is exactly reciprocal, though. All the EU had to say was that UK migrants were welcome there. Why did the EU not beat us to the draw on this, if they are so much nicer than us?
    They absolutely did. They have been banging on about citizen rights and the importance of freedom of movement since the start. It is the UK side that doesn't want it.
    And making ridiculous demands that no nation would or had agreed to.
    The only demand they made was to follow the process set out in the treaty that we signed up to. No negotiation without notification.
    Which court do they insist on for EU citizens in UK?
  • Options
    CBI and IoD not invited to next meeting with Davis, presumably because they're not getting behind Brexit enough.

    http://news.sky.com/story/business-groups-frozen-out-of-new-round-of-davis-brexit-talks-11024711
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Ishmael_Z said:

    nielh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Remember what happened when a previous PM visited the European Parliament?
    The way it works there, is that after the guest has spoken other MEPs can then be called to speak about the visitor.

    Like this

    Hannan not exactly on message there, speaking against 'British jobs for British workers' and state support for industry.
    Hannan is saying what he has always said including before, during and after the referendum.
    He's not said this recently.

    https://twitter.com/salterjp/status/905363823485489152
    Well he certainly said it after the Brexit vote. In July last year he and others wrote a letter to the telegraph urging that:

    "the Government, opposition parties and every candidate standing to be the next Conservative Party leader – and hence Prime Minister – to make an unequivocal statement that EU migrants currently living in the UK are welcome here, and that changes would apply only to new migrants. A clear commitment to protect the status of EU migrants was made by the official Vote Leave campaign – and it must be honoured."

    That was signed by Dan Hannan, Gisella Stuart, Douglas Carswell and many others from both Remain and Leave. It is extremely unfortunate that they have not been listened to.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/02/letters-eu-citizens-who-have-already-settled-in-britain-must-be/
    It is indeed. That is all they had to say: that EU migrants are welcome here. That is what people want to hear. For many EU citizens, the question of whether their rights are protected by the ECJ or the Supreme Court is a second order problem.

    Instead we got a stony silence on the subject. Ambiguity. Statements saying we want to guarantee the rights without saying that we will.

    Does it matter? I would say it has caused enormous harm in terms of how we are perceived within the EU and has made the negotiations more difficult.
    The situation is exactly reciprocal, though. All the EU had to say was that UK migrants were welcome there. Why did the EU not beat us to the draw on this, if they are so much nicer than us?
    we were the ones who made the decision to leave. Consequently, EU migrants here would look to the government for reassurance, which was not forthcoming, which set completely the wrong tone from the outset. Theresa May turned it in to a negotiation.


  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Matt nails it, again!

    (can't link it as don't have premium access)
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    CBI and IoD not invited to next meeting with Davis, presumably because they're not getting behind Brexit enough.

    http://news.sky.com/story/business-groups-frozen-out-of-new-round-of-davis-brexit-talks-11024711

    So not invited to one meeting, not "frozen out"

    A person close to the Department for ‎Exiting the European Union (DExEU) said the exclusion of the CBI and its peers was deliberate.

    "They have plenty of opportunities to engage with ministers," the person said.

    "It's company executives themselves that we want to hear from."


  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    Charles said:

    Matt nails it, again!

    (can't link it as don't have premium access)

    It's dedicated to all readers of PB :)
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    She prefers detail. She is not a people person. Exactly opposite of Boris, I'd say.

    I am not sure why you guys never seemed to be interested in easily the best person for the top job. He only lives next door.
    Really? I cannot see anything to suggest that she does detail well.

    Indeed she is a faultless compass, who always points 180 degrees away from the correct direction on almost every issue.

    She is so witlessly incompetent at everything bar annoying people that I cannot believe that Brexit negotiations would be slowed by a leadership contest. The time spent would be recovered quickly by putting someone else in charge.

    Incidentally Tugendhat has been trailed as someone for promotion at the reshuffle. JRM's tip may be useful.
This discussion has been closed.