politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Body In Number 10. Solving the mystery of Theresa May’s re

MikeSmithson said:

Toms said:

Running with J. K. Rowling's "If nobody mentions the smoke, the house won't be on fire.", let's agree with Pangloss that this is the best of all possible worlds.

P/S the Vuelta is approaching the end of a crucial stage.

Indeed. Brilliant finale to today's stage. Completely engrossing. I'd love Yates to do it and only 6k left

Charles said:

FF43 said:

Charles said:

I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.

Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.

Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"

The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks. It will come much later, if at all. The EU won't accept contingent payment because the whole point of this exercise for them is to get a specific and enforceable obligation from the UK. The Withdrawal Agreement will include that the UK agrees to do, including paying the EU a sum of money, and things the EU agrees to do, which probably include some kind of term limited continuity arrangement and may include access to certain EU programmes on a longer basis. What the EU offers will be partly what they want to include anyway and partly driven by our offer to them. But there won't be any If X Then Y conditionality.

Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of money. We don't have a lot of leverage, ie things they are interested in that we can offer. Money is one leverage we do have. If we are paying them useful amounts of money, particularly if we cover their budget deficit so they don't have to go through a fraught rebudgeting process, we remove a problem for them. Removing problems for people makes you interesting to them.

Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?

It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premium

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"

I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.

Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.

Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

FF43 said:

Charles said:

FF43 said:

The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks. It will come much later, if at all. The EU won't accept contingent payment because the whole point of this exercise for them is to get a specific and enforceable obligation from the UK. The Withdrawal Agreement will include that the UK agrees to do, including paying the EU a sum of money, and things the EU agrees to do, which probably include some kind of term limited continuity arrangement and may include access to certain EU programmes on a longer basis. What the EU offers will be partly what they want to include anyway and partly driven by our offer to them. But there won't be any If X Then Y conditionality.

Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of moneY ... Money is one leverage we do have. If we are paying them useful amounts of money, particularly if we cover their budget deficit so they don't have to go through a fraught rebudgeting process, we remove a problem for them. Removing problems for people makes you interesting to them.

Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?

It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premium

Agreed. But the minimum is very minimum. We're not talking "WTO Brexit", which sounds serious and viable. It would be very chaotic. . My point is, if we're going to pay it anyway and unless one or both sides screw up even more than usual, we will pay it, why not agree it early and get the benefit from it? I don't expect that to happen btw. It expect we'll pay it as late as possible, with all the costs RCS alluded to.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.

So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.

You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?

(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"

I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.

Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.


Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.

Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.

(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.

So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.

You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?

(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)

They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.

So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.

You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?

(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)

They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.

So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.

You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?

(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)

They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.

Wasn't the zero owed paper based on a lords report?

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"

I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.

Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.

Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.

(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Slumming it in Glasgow since yesterday and for the next couple of days

Carlisle to Glasgow Central already done
Glasgow Charing Cross to Balloch via Anniesland done (plus boat tour on Loch Lomond)
Glasgow Subway done

(Hey, it's me!)

dodrade said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"

I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.

Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.

Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.

(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)

The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.

So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.

You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?

(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)

They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.

Yet you believe the one that suits you and disparage the other.

Nope, I said if that story is true. If.

No: you reached a conclusion with a stray "if" and then dismissed the alternative out of court

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckonCorbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.

(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)

The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.

You don't think the majority of people in Northern Ireland are essentially extremely keen not to risk a return to the 70s?

The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.

So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.

You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?

(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)

They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.

Wasn't the zero owed paper based on a lords report?

We don't know, it is one of the few position papers the government hasn't published.

You can assume a lot will be similar albeit fleshed out

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"

I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.

Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.

Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.

(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"



Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.

Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.

(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)

The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.

You don't think the majority of people in Northern Ireland are essentially extremely keen not to risk a return to the 70s?

The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.

MaxPB said:

I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"

my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.

Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.

(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)

The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.

The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.

If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?

Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?

Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.

foxinsoxuk said:

MJW said:

A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong enough to make deposing May a fait accompli and b) that strife putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street which, whatever else they disagree on all Tories believe would be a calamity for the country.

As long as the polls have the parties neck and neck and are pretty static, that works in May's favour. She may be crap, but cling to nurse for fear of something worse. If, however the Tories begin to dip into the mid-30s consistently and Labour remain in the low 40s, possibly even pushing higher, the calculation changes. Then something must be done.

How would Labour build such a poll lead? It doesn't seem too unlikely if.

- Brexit continues to look chaotic and the government continue to look like they're not really on top of it. EU bashing may enthuse hardcore leavers, but it turns off Remainy Tories and swing voters (who don't have to drink the Corbyn Kool-Aid just withdraw their support).
- The natural bad stuff that buffets a government (and tends to pile up when the narrative is against you) continues. We've already had one May era Home Office cock-up come out. There's the annual health crisis to 'look forward' to. Prisons don't seem in a good state.
- She has a poor conference and Labour has a good one (Labour really can't fail to look a happier place after the last two, and May isn't exactly a performer).
- The economy continues to slide or stagnate

If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.

A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000

Charles said:

FF43 said:

Charles said:

FF43 said:

to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?

It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premium

Agreed. But the minimum is very minimum. We're not talking "WTO Brexit", which sounds serious and viable. It would be very chaotic. . My point is, if we're going to pay it anyway and unless one or both sides screw up even more than usual, we will pay it, why not agree it early and get the benefit from it? I don't expect that to happen btw. It expect we'll pay it as late as possible, with all the costs RCS alluded to.

It depends on the quantum

To give an example (very rough) I could see €35bn double counting our contributions plus a billion or so to cover our share of costs of EMA, Eurasmus, Euratom etc (may be pay a few years up front to fudge the numbers). I'm sure there are other odds and sods so you can get to €40-50bn for the sort of deal you are suggesting.

If you think giving to EU an extra €50bn will get us any leverage then you'd better move to Colorado otherwise you're probably breaking the law

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"



Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.

Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.

(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a EU.)

The only red .

You don't

The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.

If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?

Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?

Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.

Not for the majority of Northern Ireland, there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.

Loyalist paramilitaries would also of course return to violence if there was any threat of a united Ireland much as the IRA did before the NI Assembly was set up with a guaranteed nationalist presence in the executive

MaxPB said:

And which voters, other than hardcore remainers, are going to be looking at the EU point of view when they head to the ballot box?

Scott_P said:

BMW will force Angle Merkel to give us a good deal...

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/904432124899586048

foxinsoxuk said:

Scott_P said:

BMW will force Angle Merkel to give us a good deal...

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/904432124899586048

As a matter of interest, did other aspects of the EU feature? or is the consensus on Germany's place at the heart of Europe so certain to make EU discussions irrelevant?

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

So we can add the right of self determination as a principle the Left no longer believes in?

Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU. If you believe in the principle of self-determination, at the very least the UK should ask the EU to consider offering special status to keep Northern Ireland in the EU and uphold the Good Friday Agreement in full.

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.

No.

For us, a deal is essential.

For the EU, maintaining the integrity of the project is essential.

Negotiating the latter at the expense of the former is not a breach of faith if you represent the EU.

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MJW said:

A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong

If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM

A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000

The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it

I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.

I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/902988102016397312

My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.

Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.

Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!

No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.

EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available

Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.

Yes and every doctor has to do it

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MJW said:

A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong

If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM

A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000

The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it

I am hearing interesting noises that the

https://twitter.com/FT/status/902988102016397312

My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.

Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.

Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!

No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.

EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available

Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.

Yes and every doctor has to do it

Dropout rates are up:

/twitter.com/alwaysthedutydr/status/904054395129737220

//twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/903210201054146561?s=09

Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.

surbiton said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MJW said:

A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong

If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM

A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000

The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it

I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.

I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/902988102016397312

My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.

Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.

Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!

No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.

e

Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.

Yes and every doctor has to do it

Dropout rates are up:

https://twitter.com/alwaysthedutydr/status/904054395129737220

Check out @foxinsoxuks Tweet: https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/903210201054146561?s=09

Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.

To the Tories, kicking out the foreigners is more important than anything else. The NHS can go without enough doctors. They don't care. They have private insurance. The bastards !

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MJW said:

A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong

.

A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000

The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it

I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.

I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/902988102016397312

My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.

Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.

Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!

No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.

EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available

Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.

Yes and every doctor has to do it

So how does it solve the problem of this winter, next winter.... If Europeans are not going to fill the gap, where from then ?

WE also forget that many EU citizens are leaving not just for Brexit. The £ they earn is now worth 15% less in their home currencies, mostly Euro.

Monksfield said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"



Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

Snip

The only red .

You don't

The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.

If the DUP are given a

Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?

Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.

Not for the would

Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?

It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party

Whilst the demographics slowly but relentlessly drift away from them. Notwithstanding that, don't you think a referendum would be one way of finding a way forward? Maybe you're worried about the outcome.

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"



Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.

I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.

Now, what.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

Snip

The only red .

You don't

The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.

If the DUP are given a

Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?

Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.

Not for the would

Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?

It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party

Whilst the demographics slowly but relentlessly drift away from them. Notwithstanding that, don't you think a referendum would be one way of finding a way forward? Maybe you're worried about the outcome.

No they aren't as I said there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.

A referendum will of course only occur if a Nationalist party gets a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as indyref in Scotland occurred after the SNP won a majority in 2011 and the EU referendum in the UK only happened after the Tories won a majority in 2015

williamglenn said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/free-trade-deals-britains-true-brexit-red-line-1504461045

To strike trade deals, a country needs to have something to trade: tariffs or regulation or ideally both. Yet the only way to maintain frictionless trade between the U.K. and the EU is for the U.K. to remain in both a customs union and a regulatory union with the EU, mirroring exactly the EU’s external tariffs and regulations, leaving no scope to sign its own independent trade deals. The U.K. government has spent more than a year trying to devise ways around this conundrum but the reality is that it can’t be done.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MJW said:

A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong

If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM

A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000

The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it

I am hearing interesting

My own Trust has decided

Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!

No it is funding and reforming it to

Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.

Yes and every doctor has to do it

Dropout rates are up:

https://twitter.com/alwaysthedutydr/status/904054395129737220

Check out @foxinsoxuks Tweet: https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/903210201054146561?s=09

Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.

As I said by far the most important thing in the NHS in terms of staff is to expand training places, indeed in 2014 there were 100 000 applicants for nurses training for just 20,000 places.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

That is precisely what the government is doing

I have no idea where the Daily Mail derives those figures. This is from UCAS application data for entry this September:

"The subject experiencing the most notable decrease in applicants is nursing. Applicants from England making at least one choice to nursing fell by 23% to 33,810 in 2017"

https://www.ucas.com/corporate/news-and-key-documents/news/applicants-uk-higher-education-down-5-uk-students-and-7-eu-students

It is worth noting that many of the applicants will be unsuccessful, unsuitable, or using a Nursing apllication as a back up failsafe for Medicine*, Phisiotherapy, Radiography etc.

*Medical school apllicants are required to have one of their 5 UCAS choices as non medical. Nursing is the most popular of these.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MJW said:

A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong

If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM

A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000

The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it

I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.

I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/902988102016397312

My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.

Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.

Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!

No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.

EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available

Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.

Yes and every doctor has to do it

Dropout rates are up:

https://twitter.com/alwaysthedutydr/status/904054395129737220

Check out @foxinsoxuks Tweet: https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/903210201054146561?s=09

Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.

williamglenn said:

MarkHopkins said:

williamglenn said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/free-trade-deals-britains-true-brexit-red-line-1504461045

To strike trade deals, a country needs to have something to trade: tariffs or regulation or ideally both. Yet the only way to maintain frictionless trade between the U.K. and the EU is for the U.K. to remain in both a customs union and a regulatory union with the EU, mirroring exactly the EU’s external tariffs and regulations, leaving no scope to sign its own independent trade deals. The U.K. government has spent more than a year trying to devise ways around this conundrum but the reality is that it can’t be done.

Of course it can be done. The EU just don't (politically) want it.

The EU being intransigent is not news, and only confirms why we were right to leave.

It's not the EU which is intransigent but reality. We can't diverge while maintaining the benefits of convergence.

foxinsoxuk said:

Monksfield said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

Monksfield said:

dodrade said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

rcs1000 said:

"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"



Indeed,

Now, what.

I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?

If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.

An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.

Snip

The only red .

You don't

The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.

If the DUP are given a

Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?

Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.

Not for the would

Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?

It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party

Whilst the demographics slowly but relentlessly drift away from them. Notwithstanding that, don't you think a referendum would be one way of finding a way forward? Maybe you're worried about the outcome.

No they aren't as I said there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.

A referendum will of course only occur if a Nationalist party gets a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as indyref in Scotland occurred after the SNP won a majority in 2011 and the EU referendum in the UK only happened after the Tories won a majority in 2015

How do you know there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants? Especially when the question in it's full brexit implications context hasn't been asked of them? I'd have said a referendum is inevitable if there is to be any significant change to current border arrangements.

On the other hand more NI voters voted Remain than Leave.

I would expect the Unionists to win a plebiscite on a hard border vs defacto reunification with the Republic, but quite possibly a couple of counties might have majority for reunification, such is voting at a micro level.

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MJW said:

A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong

If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM

A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:

https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000

The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it

I am hearing interesting noises

https://twitter.com/FT/status/902988102016397312

My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.

Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.

Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!

No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.

EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available

Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.

Yes and every doctor has to do it

Dropout rates are up:

https://twitter.com/alwaysthedutydr/status/904054395129737220

Check out @foxinsoxuks Tweet: https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/903210201054146561?s=09

Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.

Then they should repay their cost of training

surbiton said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.

No.

For us, a deal is essential.

For the EU, maintaining the integrity of the project is essential.

Negotiating the latter at the expense of the former is not a breach of faith if you represent the EU.

This is not about how the EU will view it but about how the British public will view it. Making sure we repeat the claims by the EU that Britain must be 'punished' will do wonders for people's view of things.

But how does it solve UK's predicament. Or, are you so wedded to the concept of sovereignty that 5 years of below trend GDP is acceptable to you. Perhaps it is OK for you.

Brexiters and lying go together. Barnier did not say they will be "teaching the UK a lesson" .

Translation notwithstanding, he said that British people will be taught the consequences of Brexit. Their belief is that the British people have been misled, which is true. The word "lesson" has been deliberately used by Brexiters to poison the atmosphere.