Running with J. K. Rowling's "If nobody mentions the smoke, the house won't be on fire.", let's agree with Pangloss that this is the best of all possible worlds.
P/S the Vuelta is approaching the end of a crucial stage.
Indeed. Brilliant finale to today's stage. Completely engrossing. I'd love Yates to do it and only 6k left
This year's Vuelta has been brutal. Every stage has had some twist in the tail but Sky have been able to control most days. Froome has not had to excert himself overmuch and should wrap things up on the time trial on Tuesday. The only way to stop him is if he gets an injury or illness.
I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks. It will come much later, if at all. The EU won't accept contingent payment because the whole point of this exercise for them is to get a specific and enforceable obligation from the UK. The Withdrawal Agreement will include that the UK agrees to do, including paying the EU a sum of money, and things the EU agrees to do, which probably include some kind of term limited continuity arrangement and may include access to certain EU programmes on a longer basis. What the EU offers will be partly what they want to include anyway and partly driven by our offer to them. But there won't be any If X Then Y conditionality.
Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of money. We don't have a lot of leverage, ie things they are interested in that we can offer. Money is one leverage we do have. If we are paying them useful amounts of money, particularly if we cover their budget deficit so they don't have to go through a fraught rebudgeting process, we remove a problem for them. Removing problems for people makes you interesting to them.
Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?
It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premium
We should suggest a daily reduction in any exit bill (.05 of a billion) until the FTA is signed. Would stop the shilly shallying that Robert is probably right about...
I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks. It will come much later, if at all. The EU won't accept contingent payment because the whole point of this exercise for them is to get a specific and enforceable obligation from the UK. The Withdrawal Agreement will include that the UK agrees to do, including paying the EU a sum of money, and things the EU agrees to do, which probably include some kind of term limited continuity arrangement and may include access to certain EU programmes on a longer basis. What the EU offers will be partly what they want to include anyway and partly driven by our offer to them. But there won't be any If X Then Y conditionality.
Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of money. We don't have a lot of leverage, ie things they are interested in that we can offer. Money is one leverage we do have. If we are paying them useful amounts of money, particularly if we cover their budget deficit so they don't have to go through a fraught rebudgeting process, we remove a problem for them. Removing problems for people makes you interesting to them.
Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?
It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premium
Agreed. But the minimum is very minimum. We're not talking "WTO Brexit", which sounds serious and viable. It would be very chaotic. . My point is, if we're going to pay it anyway and unless one or both sides screw up even more than usual, we will pay it, why not agree it early and get the benefit from it? I don't expect that to happen btw. It expect we'll pay it as late as possible, with all the costs RCS alluded to.
I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks. It will come much later, if at all. The EU won't accept contingent payment because the whole point of this exercise for them is to get a specific and enforceable obligation from the UK. The Withdrawal Agreement will include that the UK agrees to do, including paying the EU a sum of money, and things the EU agrees to do, which probably include some kind of term limited continuity arrangement and may include access to certain EU programmes on a longer basis. What the EU offers will be partly what they want to include anyway and partly driven by our offer to them. But there won't be any If X Then Y conditionality.
Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?
It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premium
Agreed. There are logically two outcomes:
1. Pay up and negotiate as good a trade deal as is possible [ €50-100 bn over the next 20 years is peanuts! - though politically difficult to sell ].
2. If it is going to be WTO, then we pay nothing ! The EU can litigate if they wish to. Make no mistake , this will have heavy consequences over the first few years. Many people [ the vast majority ] simply do not understand this.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks. It will come much later, if at all. The EU won't accept contingent payment because the whole point of this exercise for them is to get a specific and enforceable obligation from the UK. The Withdrawal Agreement will include that the UK agrees to do, including paying the EU a sum of money, and things the EU agrees to do, which probably include some kind of term limited continuity arrangement and may include access to certain EU programmes on a longer basis. What the EU offers will be partly what they want to include anyway and partly driven by our offer to them. But there won't be any If X Then Y conditionality.
Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of moneY ... Money is one leverage we do have. If we are paying them useful amounts of money, particularly if we cover their budget deficit so they don't have to go through a fraught rebudgeting process, we remove a problem for them. Removing problems for people makes you interesting to them.
Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?
It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premium
Agreed. But the minimum is very minimum. We're not talking "WTO Brexit", which sounds serious and viable. It would be very chaotic. . My point is, if we're going to pay it anyway and unless one or both sides screw up even more than usual, we will pay it, why not agree it early and get the benefit from it? I don't expect that to happen btw. It expect we'll pay it as late as possible, with all the costs RCS alluded to.
It depends on the quantum
To give an example (very rough) I could see €35bn double counting our contributions plus a billion or so to cover our share of costs of EMA, Eurasmus, Euratom etc (may be pay a few years up front to fudge the numbers). I'm sure there are other odds and sods so you can get to €40-50bn for the sort of deal you are suggesting.
If you think giving to EU an extra €50bn will get us any leverage then you'd better move to Colorado otherwise you're probably breaking the law
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
May loves her country?! Excuse me while I retch in the sink Robert..
May loves a warped vision of 1950s Britain, she is a walking talking copy of Paul Dacre's Daily Mail. You were right about the second bit though. She loves her party. She loves that because it increasingly represents that same backward looking vision. It's become clear she's much more interested in protecting her party than the people of Britain. And that can't end well. I disagree that she will put country before party.
That said I'll be surprised if she's PM at Easter. The battles of this autumn and winter are going to be utterly brutal.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Yet you believe the one that suits you and disparage the other.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Yet you believe the one that suits you and disparage the other.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Wasn't the zero owed paper based on a lords report?
I thought the expectation was that Con rebels will table amendment(s) re single market / customs union and these amendments may well pass with support of all opposition parties.
Not that Con rebels will vote against 2nd or 3rd Reading.
So the question isn't whether the Bill "passes" - it's what happens if an amendment which the Government doesn't support gets incorporated within it.
Would the Govt / TMay:
1) Scrap the Bill and introduce a new Bill 2) TMay resign and pass the problem to a new leader 3) Initiate a GE 4) Just accept the amendment and carry on
If they choose 4) they could say they'll reverse amendment at a later stage - eg Report Stage or whatever - that could be many months into the future.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Wasn't the zero owed paper based on a lords report?
We don't know, it is one of the few position papers the government hasn't published.
Boris is the one who does not fit Miss Marple's analysis. The case against Boris is that he is unreliable, inconsistent and plainly out of his depth even as Foreign Secretary. The gilt has come off his gingerbread; he is a busted flush, a lay.
Except Boris has one special quality unique among the contenders. He is a proven vote-winner. He beat a charismatic incumbent to become mayor of our Labour-leaning capital, and then repeated the trick. If the Conservatives have lost an election or even if, before an election, Labour has a large poll lead, the party may well remember what happened last time when its personality-free leader lost her majority, and turn to its one star.
Labour had a five point lead in the last thread.
Boris also polled best with the public in last month's Survation. He also has all the charisma and populism May did not, albeit with less of the seriousness. Once Brexit talks are complete he has a real shot.
UKIP were up 3% on the general election in the poll in the previous thread giving Labour a 5 point lead and Survation had Boris polling by far the best with UKIP voters.
UKIP were actually up 2.2% .
No way is the UKIP vote going back up. They will be functionally extinct at the end of the month.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Yet you believe the one that suits you and disparage the other.
TBF no one on this board knows what is going on in the negotiations, Any leak is for a purpose. So foaming at the mouth or getting massively excited is just a waste of psychic energy
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Yet you believe the one that suits you and disparage the other.
Nope, I said if that story is true. If.
No: you reached a conclusion with a stray "if" and then dismissed the alternative out of court
I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.
I thought the expectation was that Con rebels will table amendment(s) re single market / customs union and these amendments may well pass with support of all opposition parties.
Not that Con rebels will vote against 2nd or 3rd Reading.
So the question isn't whether the Bill "passes" - it's what happens if an amendment which the Government doesn't support gets incorporated within it.
Would the Govt / TMay:
1) Scrap the Bill and introduce a new Bill 2) TMay resign and pass the problem to a new leader 3) Initiate a GE 4) Just accept the amendment and carry on
If they choose 4) they could say they'll reverse amendment at a later stage - eg Report Stage or whatever - that could be many months into the future.
More likely they ignore it
Then when they don't agree - say Single Market membership - they come to the commons and say "sorry it wasn't possible"
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.
You don't think the majority of people in Northern Ireland are essentially extremely keen not to risk a return to the 70s?
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Wasn't the zero owed paper based on a lords report?
We don't know, it is one of the few position papers the government hasn't published.
You can assume a lot will be similar albeit fleshed out
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Yet you believe the one that suits you and disparage the other.
Nope, I said if that story is true. If.
No: you reached a conclusion with a stray "if" and then dismissed the alternative out of court
This is a betting site, I'm struggling to see how Mrs May can sell a potential £50 billion divorce bill after those stories earlier on this week, so I was merely looking at the political outcome, Mrs May going q4 2017 is sub optimal.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
May loves her country?! Excuse me while I retch in the sink Robert..
May loves a warped vision of 1950s Britain, she is a walking talking copy of Paul Dacre's Daily Mail. You were right about the second bit though. She loves her party. She loves that because it increasingly represents that same backward looking vision. It's become clear she's much more interested in protecting her party than the people of Britain. And that can't end well. I disagree that she will put country before party.
That said I'll be surprised if she's PM at Easter. The battles of this autumn and winter are going to be utterly brutal.
I am sure thst you must be nostalgic for the Daily Mail of the 1970's:
"I reckonCorbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.
You don't think the majority of people in Northern Ireland are essentially extremely keen not to risk a return to the 70s?
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
Northern Ireland as an idea depends on that border to create a safe space for a particular demographic. As such the border is core to the Unionist project. The Good Friday Agreement deliberately makes the border ambiguous. The border is in people's minds. Brexit removes that ambiguity.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong enough to make deposing May a fait accompli and b) that strife putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street which, whatever else they disagree on all Tories believe would be a calamity for the country.
As long as the polls have the parties neck and neck and are pretty static, that works in May's favour. She may be crap, but cling to nurse for fear of something worse. If, however the Tories begin to dip into the mid-30s consistently and Labour remain in the low 40s, possibly even pushing higher, the calculation changes. Then something must be done.
How would Labour build such a poll lead? It doesn't seem too unlikely if.
- Brexit continues to look chaotic and the government continue to look like they're not really on top of it. EU bashing may enthuse hardcore leavers, but it turns off Remainy Tories and swing voters (who don't have to drink the Corbyn Kool-Aid just withdraw their support). - The natural bad stuff that buffets a government (and tends to pile up when the narrative is against you) continues. We've already had one May era Home Office cock-up come out. There's the annual health crisis to 'look forward' to. Prisons don't seem in a good state. - She has a poor conference and Labour has a good one (Labour really can't fail to look a happier place after the last two, and May isn't exactly a performer). - The economy continues to slide or stagnate
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Wasn't the zero owed paper based on a lords report?
We don't know, it is one of the few position papers the government hasn't published.
You can assume a lot will be similar albeit fleshed out
But I love reading complex legal arguments. The government is denying me pleasure.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Yet you believe the one that suits you and disparage the other.
Nope, I said if that story is true. If.
No: you reached a conclusion with a stray "if" and then dismissed the alternative out of court
This is a betting site, I'm struggling to see how Mrs May can sell a potential £50 billion divorce bill after those stories earlier on this week, so I was merely looking at the political outcome, Mrs May going q4 2017 is sub optimal.
The last few years I've found myself enjoying the vuelta much more than tdf. The race Dumoulin chased and Aru ultimately mugged him in 2015 was epic. This year it's been a good race but the way that Sky's preferred approach of strangling the race has been transferred from Le Tour to A Vuelta doesn't fill me with joy. I find myself nostalgic for the days when team leaders found themselves isolated much lower down the mountain.
Lopez looks awesome, hopefully he'll lead Astana at next year's Tour.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
The Daily Mail website now has figures available from Survation's poll today as to who the public and Tory voters want to succeed May as Tory Leader
Public Boris 19% JRM 9% Hammond 8% Davis 6% Rudd 5% Gove 2%
Tory Voters Boris 21% JRM 15% Hammond 12% Davis 7% Rudd 6% Gove 2%
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
Ah, thanks for that. I thought I might be missing some obvious FTPA clause.
So Election as only way to try and pass the deal bill again. Got it.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong enough to make deposing May a fait accompli and b) that strife putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street which, whatever else they disagree on all Tories believe would be a calamity for the country.
As long as the polls have the parties neck and neck and are pretty static, that works in May's favour. She may be crap, but cling to nurse for fear of something worse. If, however the Tories begin to dip into the mid-30s consistently and Labour remain in the low 40s, possibly even pushing higher, the calculation changes. Then something must be done.
How would Labour build such a poll lead? It doesn't seem too unlikely if.
- Brexit continues to look chaotic and the government continue to look like they're not really on top of it. EU bashing may enthuse hardcore leavers, but it turns off Remainy Tories and swing voters (who don't have to drink the Corbyn Kool-Aid just withdraw their support). - The natural bad stuff that buffets a government (and tends to pile up when the narrative is against you) continues. We've already had one May era Home Office cock-up come out. There's the annual health crisis to 'look forward' to. Prisons don't seem in a good state. - She has a poor conference and Labour has a good one (Labour really can't fail to look a happier place after the last two, and May isn't exactly a performer). - The economy continues to slide or stagnate
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.
You don't think the majority of people in Northern Ireland are essentially extremely keen not to risk a return to the 70s?
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong enough to make deposing May a fait accompli and b) that strife putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street which, whatever else they disagree on all Tories believe would be a calamity for the country.
As long as the polls have the parties neck and neck and are pretty static, that works in May's favour. She may be crap, but cling to nurse for fear of something worse. If, however the Tories begin to dip into the mid-30s consistently and Labour remain in the low 40s, possibly even pushing higher, the calculation changes. Then something must be done.
How would Labour build such a poll lead? It doesn't seem too unlikely if.
- Brexit continues to look chaotic and the government continue to look like they're not really on top of it. EU bashing may enthuse hardcore leavers, but it turns off Remainy Tories and swing voters (who don't have to drink the Corbyn Kool-Aid just withdraw their support). - The natural bad stuff that buffets a government (and tends to pile up when the narrative is against you) continues. We've already had one May era Home Office cock-up come out. There's the annual health crisis to 'look forward' to. Prisons don't seem in a good state. - She has a poor conference and Labour has a good one (Labour really can't fail to look a happier place after the last two, and May isn't exactly a performer). - The economy continues to slide or stagnate
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.
No.
For us, a deal is essential.
For the EU, maintaining the integrity of the project is essential.
Negotiating the latter at the expense of the former is not a breach of faith if you represent the EU.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.
You don't think the majority of people in Northern Ireland are essentially extremely keen not to risk a return to the 70s?
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
The only red line for the DUP regarding brexit is no customs/immigration border between GB and NI. A frictionless border with ROI is desirable but ultimately an issue of more concern to nationalists than unionists.
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
So we can add the right of self determination as a principle the Left no longer believes in?
So we can add the right of self determination as a principle the Left no longer believes in?
Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU. If you believe in the principle of self-determination, at the very least the UK should ask the EU to consider offering special status to keep Northern Ireland in the EU and uphold the Good Friday Agreement in full.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong enough to make deposing May a fait accompli and b) that strife putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street which, whatever else they disagree on all Tories believe would be a calamity for the country.
As long as the polls have the parties neck and neck and are pretty static, that works in May's favour. She may be crap, but cling to nurse for fear of something worse. If, however the Tories begin to dip into the mid-30s consistently and Labour remain in the low 40s, possibly even pushing higher, the calculation changes. Then something must be done.
How would Labour build such a poll lead? It doesn't seem too unlikely if.
- Brexit continues to look chaotic and the government continue to look like they're not really on top of it. EU bashing may enthuse hardcore leavers, but it turns off Remainy Tories and swing voters (who don't have to drink the Corbyn Kool-Aid just withdraw their support). - The natural bad stuff that buffets a government (and tends to pile up when the narrative is against you) continues. We've already had one May era Home Office cock-up come out. There's the annual health crisis to 'look forward' to. Prisons don't seem in a good state. - She has a poor conference and Labour has a good one (Labour really can't fail to look a happier place after the last two, and May isn't exactly a performer). - The economy continues to slide or stagnate
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
Of course, one of some description is an annual event these days. We also, seven-eight years in, seem to be at the stage that began to happen to Labour post-2005 where the government has to own its problems, fairly or unfairly, and can't blame past decisions or defuse cock-ups by promising to learn lessons.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a EU.)
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the majority of Northern Ireland, there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
Loyalist paramilitaries would also of course return to violence if there was any threat of a united Ireland much as the IRA did before the NI Assembly was set up with a guaranteed nationalist presence in the executive and there was direct rule from London
to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?
It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premium
Agreed. But the minimum is very minimum. We're not talking "WTO Brexit", which sounds serious and viable. It would be very chaotic. . My point is, if we're going to pay it anyway and unless one or both sides screw up even more than usual, we will pay it, why not agree it early and get the benefit from it? I don't expect that to happen btw. It expect we'll pay it as late as possible, with all the costs RCS alluded to.
It depends on the quantum
To give an example (very rough) I could see €35bn double counting our contributions plus a billion or so to cover our share of costs of EMA, Eurasmus, Euratom etc (may be pay a few years up front to fudge the numbers). I'm sure there are other odds and sods so you can get to €40-50bn for the sort of deal you are suggesting.
If you think giving to EU an extra €50bn will get us any leverage then you'd better move to Colorado otherwise you're probably breaking the law
You are underestimating the costs of a chaotic Brexit. Now, that chaotic exit affects the EU too, but there's another point that feeds into this. It isn't a bilateral agreement between two parties. It's an agreement between the UK and a multilateral body that represents the consensus view of 27 countries. That consensus is hard to reach, but once it has been reached no-one wants to break it. This makes the EU an inflexible negotiator. The value to the UK of negotiating through the EU is that they have herded the cats for us. We certainly don't want to take on 27 simultaneous and possibly contradictory negotiations if we can go through central clearing. So we accept their terms, probably.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong enough to make deposing May a fait accompli and b) that strife putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street which, whatever else they disagree on all Tories believe would be a calamity for the country.
As long as the polls have the parties neck and neck and are pretty static, that works in May's favour. She may be crap, but cling to nurse for fear of something worse. If, however the Tories begin to dip into the mid-30s consistently and Labour remain in the low 40s, possibly even pushing higher, the calculation changes. Then something must be done.
How would Labour build such a poll lead? It doesn't seem too unlikely if.
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a EU.)
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the majority of Northern Ireland, there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
Loyalist paramilitaries would also of course return to violence if there was any threat of a united Ireland much as the IRA did before the NI Assembly was set up with a guaranteed nationalist presence in the executive
Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?
I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.
No.
For us, a deal is essential.
For the EU, maintaining the integrity of the project is essential.
Negotiating the latter at the expense of the former is not a breach of faith if you represent the EU.
And which voters, other than hardcore remainers, are going to be looking at the EU point of view when they head to the ballot box?
As a matter of interest, did other aspects of the EU feature? or is the consensus on Germany's place at the heart of Europe so certain to make EU discussions irrelevant?
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
As a matter of interest, did other aspects of the EU feature? or is the consensus on Germany's place at the heart of Europe so certain to make EU discussions irrelevant?
Germany effectively runs the EU anyway as it dictates ECB policy. Why should they debate something that they all agree is to their own advantage and to the detriment of everyone else?
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a EU.)
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the majority of Northern Ireland, there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
Loyalist paramilitaries would
Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?
It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party
So we can add the right of self determination as a principle the Left no longer believes in?
Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU. If you believe in the principle of self-determination, at the very least the UK should ask the EU to consider offering special status to keep Northern Ireland in the EU and uphold the Good Friday Agreement in full.
The UK has never given an undertaking never to leave the EU.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.
No.
For us, a deal is essential.
For the EU, maintaining the integrity of the project is essential.
Negotiating the latter at the expense of the former is not a breach of faith if you represent the EU.
This is not about how the EU will view it but about how the British public will view it. Making sure we repeat the claims by the EU that Britain must be 'punished' will do wonders for people's view of things.
"The mad and the bad have got it in for Theresa May I have a soft spot for the Prime Minister and it’s our support she needs, not our forgiveness Matthew Parris"
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
Though the Eurosceptic AfD is in 3rd place in several recent German polls
I work for a German company for 31 years. After the initial jokes post 23rd June, Brexit is a big yawn. One of the strength of german industry is that they know their products will sell. Our competitors are german too, so what choice will our customers have if WTO comes about.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
Snip
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a choice between a hard border between ROI or GB do you really think they would go for the latter?
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the majority of Northern Ireland, there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
Loyalist paramilitaries would
Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?
It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party
Whilst the demographics slowly but relentlessly drift away from them. Notwithstanding that, don't you think a referendum would be one way of finding a way forward? Maybe you're worried about the outcome.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
Yes and every doctor has to do it
So how does it solve the problem of this winter, next winter.... If Europeans are not going to fill the gap, where from then ?
WE also forget that many EU citizens are leaving not just for Brexit. The £ they earn is now worth 15% less in their home currencies, mostly Euro.
I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.
No.
For us, a deal is essential.
For the EU, maintaining the integrity of the project is essential.
Negotiating the latter at the expense of the former is not a breach of faith if you represent the EU.
This is not about how the EU will view it but about how the British public will view it. Making sure we repeat the claims by the EU that Britain must be 'punished' will do wonders for people's view of things.
But how does it solve UK's predicament. Or, are you so wedded to the concept of sovereignty that 5 years of below trend GDP is acceptable to you. Perhaps it is OK for you.
Brexiters and lying go together. Barnier did not say they will be "teaching the UK a lesson" .
Translation notwithstanding, he said that British people will be taught the consequences of Brexit. Their belief is that the British people have been misled, which is true. The word "lesson" has been deliberately used by Brexiters to poison the atmosphere.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
"The mad and the bad have got it in for Theresa May I have a soft spot for the Prime Minister and it’s our support she needs, not our forgiveness Matthew Parris"
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.
To the Tories, kicking out the foreigners is more important than anything else. The NHS can go without enough doctors. They don't care. They have private insurance. The bastards !
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.
Indeed at current GP attrition rate, we lose 7% of our GPs each year, giving a mean career duration of just over 14 years. That probably exagerates the number, as many are part time, or taking career breaks such as maternity while remaining on the register.
The replacements are coming through more slowly, want to work part time and have less clinical experience.
The same is true of most hospital specialities too.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
e
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.
To the Tories, kicking out the foreigners is more important than anything else. The NHS can go without enough doctors. They don't care. They have private insurance. The bastards !
Up to a point!
Private health insurance does not generally cover long term conditions, pre existing conditions, maternity or mental health. Most importantly it does not cover emergencies.
Flashing your BUPA cover doesn't do you much good as the paramedics cut you out of a crashed Bentley.
Though the Eurosceptic AfD is in 3rd place in several recent German polls
I work for a German company for 31 years. After the initial jokes post 23rd June, Brexit is a big yawn. One of the strength of german industry is that they know their products will sell. Our competitors are german too, so what choice will our customers have if WTO comes about.
Well given your company and its competitors are both German anyway, Brexit is completely irrelevant
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
.
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
Yes and every doctor has to do it
So how does it solve the problem of this winter, next winter.... If Europeans are not going to fill the gap, where from then ?
WE also forget that many EU citizens are leaving not just for Brexit. The £ they earn is now worth 15% less in their home currencies, mostly Euro.
Europeans leaving also reduces the demand on the NHS and Europeans only make up less than 10% of doctors and nurses in the NHS
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
The Daily Mail website now has figures available from Survation's poll today as to who the public and Tory voters want to succeed May as Tory Leader
Public Boris 19% JRM 9% Hammond 8% Davis 6% Rudd 5% Gove 2%
Tory Voters Boris 21% JRM 15% Hammond 12% Davis 7% Rudd 6% Gove 2%
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
Snip
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the would
Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?
It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party
Whilst the demographics slowly but relentlessly drift away from them. Notwithstanding that, don't you think a referendum would be one way of finding a way forward? Maybe you're worried about the outcome.
No they aren't as I said there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
A referendum will of course only occur if a Nationalist party gets a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as indyref in Scotland occurred after the SNP won a majority in 2011 and the EU referendum in the UK only happened after the Tories won a majority in 2015
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
The Daily Mail website now has figures available from Survation's poll today as to who the public and Tory voters want to succeed May as Tory Leader
Public Boris 19% JRM 9% Hammond 8% Davis 6% Rudd 5% Gove 2%
Tory Voters Boris 21% JRM 15% Hammond 12% Davis 7% Rudd 6% Gove 2%
To strike trade deals, a country needs to have something to trade: tariffs or regulation or ideally both. Yet the only way to maintain frictionless trade between the U.K. and the EU is for the U.K. to remain in both a customs union and a regulatory union with the EU, mirroring exactly the EU’s external tariffs and regulations, leaving no scope to sign its own independent trade deals. The U.K. government has spent more than a year trying to devise ways around this conundrum but the reality is that it can’t be done.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting
My own Trust has decided
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
I have no idea where the Daily Mail derives those figures. This is from UCAS application data for entry this September:
"The subject experiencing the most notable decrease in applicants is nursing. Applicants from England making at least one choice to nursing fell by 23% to 33,810 in 2017"
It is worth noting that many of the applicants will be unsuccessful, unsuitable, or using a Nursing apllication as a back up failsafe for Medicine*, Phisiotherapy, Radiography etc.
*Medical school apllicants are required to have one of their 5 UCAS choices as non medical. Nursing is the most popular of these.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
Snip
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the would
Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?
It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party
Whilst the demographics slowly but relentlessly drift away from them. Notwithstanding that, don't you think a referendum would be one way of finding a way forward? Maybe you're worried about the outcome.
No they aren't as I said there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
A referendum will of course only occur if a Nationalist party gets a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as indyref in Scotland occurred after the SNP won a majority in 2011 and the EU referendum in the UK only happened after the Tories won a majority in 2015
How do you know there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants? Especially when the question in it's full brexit implications context hasn't been asked of them? I'd have said a referendum is inevitable if there is to be any significant change to current border arrangements.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
You are dismissing the analysis you haven't seen based on an unsourced leak?
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
They are both unsourced leaks, so both should be viewed in that light.
Wasn't the zero owed paper based on a lords report?
We don't know, it is one of the few position papers the government hasn't published.
we conclude that if agreement is not reached, all EU law—including provisions concerning ongoing financial contributions and machinery for adjudication—will cease to apply, and the UK would be subject to no enforceable obligation to make any financial contribution at all.
To strike trade deals, a country needs to have something to trade: tariffs or regulation or ideally both. Yet the only way to maintain frictionless trade between the U.K. and the EU is for the U.K. to remain in both a customs union and a regulatory union with the EU, mirroring exactly the EU’s external tariffs and regulations, leaving no scope to sign its own independent trade deals. The U.K. government has spent more than a year trying to devise ways around this conundrum but the reality is that it can’t be done.
Of course it can be done. The EU just don't (politically) want it.
The EU being intransigent is not news, and only confirms why we were right to leave.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.
To the Tories, kicking out the foreigners is more important than anything else. The NHS can go without enough doctors. They don't care. They have private insurance. The bastards !
We twirl our moustaches and think up new ways of destroying the NHS.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting
My own Trust has decided
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
I have no idea where the Daily Mail derives those figures. This is from UCAS application data for entry this September:
"The subject experiencing the most notable decrease in applicants is nursing. Applicants from England making at least one choice to nursing fell by 23% to 33,810 in 2017"
It is worth noting that many of the applicants will be unsuccessful, unsuitable, or using a Nursing apllication as a back up failsafe for Medicine*, Phisiotherapy, Radiography etc.
*Medical school apllicants are required to have one of their 5 UCAS choices as non medical. Nursing is the most popular of these.
So even on your figures there are still 13,000 more applicants for nurses training places than there are places available
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed,
Now, what.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
Snip
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the would
Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?
It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party
Whilst the demographics slowly but relentlessly drift away from them. Notwithstanding that, don't you think a referendum would be one way of finding a way forward? Maybe you're worried about the outcome.
No they aren't as I said there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
A referendum will of course only occur if a Nationalist party gets a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as indyref in Scotland occurred after the SNP won a majority in 2011 and the EU referendum in the UK only happened after the Tories won a majority in 2015
How do you know there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants? Especially when the question in it's full brexit implications context hasn't been asked of them? I'd have said a referendum is inevitable if there is to be any significant change to current border arrangements.
On the other hand more NI voters voted Remain than Leave.
I would expect the Unionists to win a plebiscite on a hard border vs defacto reunification with the Republic, but quite possibly a couple of counties might have majority for reunification, such is voting at a micro level.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
I am hearing interesting noises that the government plans to have unblocked beds via social care funding are in a state of collapse, and that we will see consequences this autumn. I have been on holiday last week so may not be fully up to speed yet.
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
To strike trade deals, a country needs to have something to trade: tariffs or regulation or ideally both. Yet the only way to maintain frictionless trade between the U.K. and the EU is for the U.K. to remain in both a customs union and a regulatory union with the EU, mirroring exactly the EU’s external tariffs and regulations, leaving no scope to sign its own independent trade deals. The U.K. government has spent more than a year trying to devise ways around this conundrum but the reality is that it can’t be done.
Of course it can be done. The EU just don't (politically) want it.
The EU being intransigent is not news, and only confirms why we were right to leave.
It's not the EU which is intransigent but reality. We can't diverge while maintaining the benefits of convergence.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill .
Snip
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the would
Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?
It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party
Whilst the .
No they aren't as I said there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
A referendum will of course only occur if a Nationalist party gets a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as indyref in Scotland occurred after the SNP won a majority in 2011 and the EU referendum in the UK only happened after the Tories won a majority in 2015
How do you know there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants? Especially when the question in it's full brexit implications context hasn't been asked of them? I'd have said a referendum is inevitable if there is to be any significant change to current border arrangements.
38% of NI Catholics would vote to stay part of the UK 35% of NI Catholics would vote to join ROI
To strike trade deals, a country needs to have something to trade: tariffs or regulation or ideally both. Yet the only way to maintain frictionless trade between the U.K. and the EU is for the U.K. to remain in both a customs union and a regulatory union with the EU, mirroring exactly the EU’s external tariffs and regulations, leaving no scope to sign its own independent trade deals. The U.K. government has spent more than a year trying to devise ways around this conundrum but the reality is that it can’t be done.
Of course it can be done. The EU just don't (politically) want it.
The EU being intransigent is not news, and only confirms why we were right to leave.
It's not the EU which is intransigent but reality. We can't diverge while maintaining the benefits of convergence.
The EU want to punish us. They have said so openly. As such we can be sure that any agreement that could end well for both sides would be vetoed by the EU.
That is the message that the British public will receive loud and clear if no agreement is reached.
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
Indeed,
Now, what.
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?
If the bill does not pass, then we are heading for a disorderly WTO Brexit.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
Snip
The only red .
You don't
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
If the DUP are given a
Is the UK government prepared to throw the Good Friday Agreement overboard, with all its implications?
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Not for the would
Would be interesting to put it to the vote, wouldn't it?
It won't be because the largest party in Northern Ireland is a Unionist Party
Whilst the demographics slowly but relentlessly drift away from them. Notwithstanding that, don't you think a referendum would be one way of finding a way forward? Maybe you're worried about the outcome.
No they aren't as I said there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants.
A referendum will of course only occur if a Nationalist party gets a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as indyref in Scotland occurred after the SNP won a majority in 2011 and the EU referendum in the UK only happened after the Tories won a majority in 2015
How do you know there are more Unionist Catholics than Nationalist Protestants? Especially when the question in it's full brexit implications context hasn't been asked of them? I'd have said a referendum is inevitable if there is to be any significant change to current border arrangements.
On the other hand more NI voters voted Remain than Leave.
I would expect the Unionists to win a plebiscite on a hard border vs defacto reunification with the Republic, but quite possibly a couple of counties might have majority for reunification, such is voting at a micro level.
I reckon Mrs May might be toppled because if that Sunday Times story is true and she's going to sign off a £50 billion divorce bill after the Tory conference.
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
The first line of the story has the words 'up to' included where the headline does not.
Rather like the '50% Off' signs with the words 'up to' in much smaller letters.
I imagine that the words such as 'could' and 'might' also made an appearance somewhere.
Whatever, there are so many politicians and journalists with their own agendas involved in these stories I don't anyone has much of an idea what is happening.
A good analysis, but it may leave out the importance of the polls. The major things keeping May in place at the minute are a) Fear that a contest would spark a civil war because no Tory candidate or faction is strong
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM
A winter NHS crisis is on the cards btw. The NHS deficit is substantially more than stated, helped out by accounting that would make Enron blush:
The NHS is always 'in crisis' despite £8 billion extra a year and will be until more of those who can afford it take out private health insurance easing the pressure on it
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
No it is funding and reforming it to increase private health insurance.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
Training is a good idea. But it takes 7 years of training to get a doctor.
Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.
Then they should repay their cost of training
Their postgraduate training is not supernumary, they are the junior doctors who keep the services functioning. 5 years NHS work would be 2 years Foundation and 3 years as GP Vocational Trainee, none as a qualified GP.
Medical School apllications are down too this year. I have never known so many places in clearing.
The young are voting with their feet. They see little future here.
Funding can be restored, but that cadre cannot be easily replaced.
I have to say the language of "teaching the UK a lesson" is probably quite helpful to the post-Brexit environment for the Tories if we do end up in a no-deal situation. It will show the EU have not been negotiating in good faith.
No.
For us, a deal is essential.
For the EU, maintaining the integrity of the project is essential.
Negotiating the latter at the expense of the former is not a breach of faith if you represent the EU.
This is not about how the EU will view it but about how the British public will view it. Making sure we repeat the claims by the EU that Britain must be 'punished' will do wonders for people's view of things.
But how does it solve UK's predicament. Or, are you so wedded to the concept of sovereignty that 5 years of below trend GDP is acceptable to you. Perhaps it is OK for you.
Brexiters and lying go together. Barnier did not say they will be "teaching the UK a lesson" .
Translation notwithstanding, he said that British people will be taught the consequences of Brexit. Their belief is that the British people have been misled, which is true. The word "lesson" has been deliberately used by Brexiters to poison the atmosphere.
Where did I mention Barnier? I was quoting Juncker who said Britain must be punished as a warning to other countries who might want to leave. Seems that Surbiton and lying go together.
And yes, 5 years of below trend GDP is well worth paying. After all we put up with worse when we have our own Governments screwing up - but with the advantage that we can get rid of the buggers at the end of it.
Comments
1. Pay up and negotiate as good a trade deal as is possible [ €50-100 bn over the next 20 years is peanuts! - though politically difficult to sell ].
2. If it is going to be WTO, then we pay nothing ! The EU can litigate if they wish to. Make no mistake , this will have heavy consequences over the first few years. Many people [ the vast majority ] simply do not understand this.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/09/our-survey-almost-three-in-four-party-members-want-any-brexit-implementation-plan-to-finish-before-the-next-election.html
So much for that excellent analysis by a civil servant that we didn't owe anything that had the EU cowering in fear.
An orderly WTO Brexit, which we'd planned for, is a very different thing from a disorderly last minute WTO one.
For all her faults, Mrs May genuinely loves her country and her party. I believe she, and the Conservative Party generally, would choose an election.
(I think people underestimate the impact on trade with the Rest of the World from a disorderly Brexit. There are nine treaties between the EU and the US, for example, that govern trade. Ironically, leaving in a disorderly manner would restrict UK trade with the US more than with the EU.)
To give an example (very rough) I could see €35bn double counting our contributions plus a billion or so to cover our share of costs of EMA, Eurasmus, Euratom etc (may be pay a few years up front to fudge the numbers). I'm sure there are other odds and sods so you can get to €40-50bn for the sort of deal you are suggesting.
If you think giving to EU an extra €50bn will get us any leverage then you'd better move to Colorado otherwise you're probably breaking the law
(And if €50bn includes 2 years of our contributions it's not a huge amount)
May loves a warped vision of 1950s Britain, she is a walking talking copy of Paul Dacre's Daily Mail. You were right about the second bit though. She loves her party. She loves that because it increasingly represents that same backward looking vision. It's become clear she's much more interested in protecting her party than the people of Britain. And that can't end well. I disagree that she will put country before party.
That said I'll be surprised if she's PM at Easter. The battles of this autumn and winter are going to be utterly brutal.
Carlisle to Glasgow Central already done
Glasgow Charing Cross to Balloch via Anniesland done (plus boat tour on Loch Lomond)
Glasgow Subway done
(Hey, it's me!)
Not that Con rebels will vote against 2nd or 3rd Reading.
So the question isn't whether the Bill "passes" - it's what happens if an amendment which the Government doesn't support gets incorporated within it.
Would the Govt / TMay:
1) Scrap the Bill and introduce a new Bill
2) TMay resign and pass the problem to a new leader
3) Initiate a GE
4) Just accept the amendment and carry on
If they choose 4) they could say they'll reverse amendment at a later stage - eg Report Stage or whatever - that could be many months into the future.
Then when they don't agree - say Single Market membership - they come to the commons and say "sorry it wasn't possible"
The symbolism of any sort of border is toxic.
https://twitter.com/spaceangel1964/status/902138048363864068
As long as the polls have the parties neck and neck and are pretty static, that works in May's favour. She may be crap, but cling to nurse for fear of something worse. If, however the Tories begin to dip into the mid-30s consistently and Labour remain in the low 40s, possibly even pushing higher, the calculation changes. Then something must be done.
How would Labour build such a poll lead? It doesn't seem too unlikely if.
- Brexit continues to look chaotic and the government continue to look like they're not really on top of it. EU bashing may enthuse hardcore leavers, but it turns off Remainy Tories and swing voters (who don't have to drink the Corbyn Kool-Aid just withdraw their support).
- The natural bad stuff that buffets a government (and tends to pile up when the narrative is against you) continues. We've already had one May era Home Office cock-up come out. There's the annual health crisis to 'look forward' to. Prisons don't seem in a good state.
- She has a poor conference and Labour has a good one (Labour really can't fail to look a happier place after the last two, and May isn't exactly a performer).
- The economy continues to slide or stagnate
If she does slide in the polls and Corbyn looks like the next PM, the Tory press won't continue to be as forgiving as they have been and neither will Tory MPs, and can see a challenger coming through saying 'I'm the man/woman with the plan to bring us through Brexit, trying to ride a bit of goodwill, get some sort of a deal done and then call an election having made the best of a bad job and delivered Brexit in some form, with future solid details then to be sold in their manifesto.
The last few years I've found myself enjoying the vuelta much more than tdf. The race Dumoulin chased and Aru ultimately mugged him in 2015 was epic. This year it's been a good race but the way that Sky's preferred approach of strangling the race has been transferred from Le Tour to A Vuelta doesn't fill me with joy. I find myself nostalgic for the days when team leaders found themselves isolated much lower down the mountain.
Lopez looks awesome, hopefully he'll lead Astana at next year's Tour.
Public
Boris 19%
JRM 9%
Hammond 8%
Davis 6%
Rudd 5%
Gove 2%
Tory Voters
Boris 21%
JRM 15%
Hammond 12%
Davis 7%
Rudd 6%
Gove 2%
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html
So Election as only way to try and pass the deal bill again. Got it.
https://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust/status/903145579970048000
For us, a deal is essential.
For the EU, maintaining the integrity of the project is essential.
Negotiating the latter at the expense of the former is not a breach of faith if you represent the EU.
Of course, the obvious solution IS a United Ireland.
Loyalist paramilitaries would also of course return to violence if there was any threat of a united Ireland much as the IRA did before the NI Assembly was set up with a guaranteed nationalist presence in the executive and there was direct rule from London
I think the bigger problem is staffing rather than funding. The Europeans are no longer coming, and others are voting with their feet.
https://twitter.com/FT/status/902988102016397312
My own Trust has decided to relax waiting list targets to ease the financial strain. Understandable but having sweated for years to get them down, a rather crushing blow to morale.
Apart from the Con Conference and Brexit buffoons, we also have spreadsheet Phils autumn budget to come. He is never very generous. I can see a rough ride this autumn for Toxic Tess.
Its being so cheerful wot keeps me going!
BMW will force Angle Merkel to give us a good deal...https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/904432124899586048
The statement "the EU has not acted in good faith" is no more true than "£350m for the NHS"
I realise that won't stop liars from using it.
EU nurses and doctors make up less than 10% of the total in the UK, it is expanding training places which is key and which the government is now doing, especially given the historic oversupply of applicants to training places available
I have a soft spot for the Prime Minister and it’s our support she needs, not our forgiveness
Matthew Parris"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/the-mad-and-the-bad-have-got-it-in-for-theresa-may/
WE also forget that many EU citizens are leaving not just for Brexit. The £ they earn is now worth 15% less in their home currencies, mostly Euro.
Brexiters and lying go together. Barnier did not say they will be "teaching the UK a lesson" .
Translation notwithstanding, he said that British people will be taught the consequences of Brexit. Their belief is that the British people have been misled, which is true. The word "lesson" has been deliberately used by Brexiters to poison the atmosphere.
https://twitter.com/alwaysthedutydr/status/904054395129737220
Check out @foxinsoxuks Tweet: https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/903210201054146561?s=09
Indeed the number of WTE GPs is dropping. Yet all is fine and dandy in the Tory NHS rose garden.
France have just drawn at home to Luxembourg in a World Cup Qualifier.
The replacements are coming through more slowly, want to work part time and have less clinical experience.
The same is true of most hospital specialities too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html
That is precisely what the government is doing
Private health insurance does not generally cover long term conditions, pre existing conditions, maternity or mental health. Most importantly it does not cover emergencies.
Flashing your BUPA cover doesn't do you much good as the paramedics cut you out of a crashed Bentley.
A referendum will of course only occur if a Nationalist party gets a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as indyref in Scotland occurred after the SNP won a majority in 2011 and the EU referendum in the UK only happened after the Tories won a majority in 2015
To strike trade deals, a country needs to have something to trade: tariffs or regulation or ideally both. Yet the only way to maintain frictionless trade between the U.K. and the EU is for the U.K. to remain in both a customs union and a regulatory union with the EU, mirroring exactly the EU’s external tariffs and regulations, leaving no scope to sign its own independent trade deals. The U.K. government has spent more than a year trying to devise ways around this conundrum but the reality is that it can’t be done.
"The subject experiencing the most notable decrease in applicants is nursing. Applicants from England making at least one choice to nursing fell by 23% to 33,810 in 2017"
https://www.ucas.com/corporate/news-and-key-documents/news/applicants-uk-higher-education-down-5-uk-students-and-7-eu-students
It is worth noting that many of the applicants will be unsuccessful, unsuitable, or using a Nursing apllication as a back up failsafe for Medicine*, Phisiotherapy, Radiography etc.
*Medical school apllicants are required to have one of their 5 UCAS choices as non medical. Nursing is the most popular of these.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12503.htm#_idTextAnchor003
we conclude that if agreement is not reached, all EU law—including provisions concerning ongoing financial contributions and machinery for adjudication—will cease to apply, and the UK would be subject to no enforceable obligation to make any financial contribution at all.
Of course it can be done. The EU just don't (politically) want it.
The EU being intransigent is not news, and only confirms why we were right to leave.
I would expect the Unionists to win a plebiscite on a hard border vs defacto reunification with the Republic, but quite possibly a couple of counties might have majority for reunification, such is voting at a micro level.
35% of NI Catholics would vote to join ROI
79% of all NI voters would vote to stay part of the UK
21% of NI voters would vote to join ROI
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-21345997
As I said there will of course be no referendum while the DUP remain the largest party in NI
That is the message that the British public will receive loud and clear if no agreement is reached.
@MrsJHaitch: 2. but they don't want to face up to it. All them were keen to impress on me how important it is that I get behind Brexit now.
@MrsJHaitch: 3. As if my lack of positivity will somehow make Brexit fail. But in fact, what they really want, is for me to be like them.
@MrsJHaitch: 5. they don't want to face up to what's happening. They're denial and my refusal to accept Brexit makes them feel uncomfortable.
Rather like the '50% Off' signs with the words 'up to' in much smaller letters.
I imagine that the words such as 'could' and 'might' also made an appearance somewhere.
Whatever, there are so many politicians and journalists with their own agendas involved in these stories I don't anyone has much of an idea what is happening.
Medical School apllications are down too this year. I have never known so many places in clearing.
The young are voting with their feet. They see little future here.
Funding can be restored, but that cadre cannot be easily replaced.
And yes, 5 years of below trend GDP is well worth paying. After all we put up with worse when we have our own Governments screwing up - but with the advantage that we can get rid of the buggers at the end of it.
Brexit logic