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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Body In Number 10. Solving the mystery of Theresa May’s re
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Body In Number 10. Solving the mystery of Theresa May’s replacement
In their own way, Agatha Christie novels are sublime works of art. Complaining that they lack plausible characterisation or profound social commentary is as silly as complaining that you can’t enjoy the landscapes in a Bridget Riley: that’s not what they’re trying to do. Mrs Christie successfully provided briskly written puzzles set in a comforting world where her readers would like to live. She fairly set out all the facts yet still managed to surprise them with her resolution of them, leaving them feeling satisfied rather than cheated. Very few writers achieve their aims anything like as completely.
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I read today that Dominic Rabb and Michael Gove have formed an alliance to get Rabb into pole position to succeed Mrs May.
After Brexit in government Boris
Before Brexit in opposition JRM
After Brexit in opposition JRM or Priti Patel
Except Boris has one special quality unique among the contenders. He is a proven vote-winner. He beat a charismatic incumbent to become mayor of our Labour-leaning capital, and then repeated the trick. If the Conservatives have lost an election or even if, before an election, Labour has a large poll lead, the party may well remember what happened last time when its personality-free leader lost her majority, and turn to its one star.
Labour had a five point lead in the last thread.
And what if she was to win such an election?
"the Government position that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union"
They have said we should leave, but that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union. They want no hard border in Ireland, and no tariffs or non-tariff barriers elsewhere.
Cake. eat it.
The government's position is ignorant, or cynical.
And the Brexiteers are increasingly angry that they have failed to convince the people who told them it would be a disaster that they have were wrong...
UKIP were up 3% on the general election in the poll in the previous thread giving Labour a 5 point lead and Survation had Boris polling by far the best with UKIP voters.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/904294403820314624
Not very likely though!
As the Russian proverb puts it "My house is burning down, I may as well warm my hands"
Great header! I reckon it was Colonel Mustard in the Billiard room with the lead piping.
Thought you might enjoy this letter from the New European* which seems to have pinched your idea:
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/903654314253721600
*increasingly becoming a very good read, with a broad range of articles suitable for citizens of nowhere.
I think they'll know where to file it.
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
P/S the Vuelta is approaching the end of a crucial stage.
Not as easy as it looks, this satire stuff.
I'm surprised that only Kenneth Clarke voted against A50, because that was the best chance to derail Brexit. The ability for Conservative rebels to alter the Brexit that the government comes up with is now very limited. They're stuck with having voted for A50, and having run on the Conservatives' manifesto. If they vote against the Brexit bill, they're ending their careers.
Deal is put into a Bill.
Bill is defeated.
Government falls.
????
Profit.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-41141373
Though the yearning that some Remainers show for a recession is always amusing - the "if I'm not playing I hope the team loses" mentality.
Don't get me wrong, I think it should be put to Parliament. That is the right thing to do no matter what the outcome.
But short of a vote of no confidence I can see no way that Parliament can force the Government to put the bill to the House. They have already had the vote they needed to complete the actual basic process of Brexit.
not-soGreat Repeal BillStrong stuff !
Take Northern Ireland. The DUP are Eurosceptic, and should be natural, long-term allies of Brexit. But they also know that Northern Ireland's economy is tied to the Republic every bit as much as it is to Great Britain. They know that if they are seen to have caused an economic downturn that saw Unionists lose their jobs, then they will lose votes to the UUP. They want the UK removed from the EU, but they want the CTA and cross border trade to continue as it was before. If they see the prospect of economic disruption in Northern Ireland, then they there has to be a serious chance they withdraw support.
This way around, because the EU will only capitulate at the last minute, many firms will already have moved staff to EU locations.
It's pretty cynical stuff. But, ultimately, the EU wants - and needs - a deal. So, they will give us almost everything we want. But only at 11:59 on the very last day.
Pity a party that has the likes of Ruth Davidson, Amber Rudd and Matt Hancock in its ranks and yet is taking seriously the idea of Jacob Rees-Mogg as May’s prospective successor. What would once have been an amiable joke is now a measure of the Conservatives’ drift into an orbit of their own creation, the radio signal from Earth growing weaker by the day.
Yes, it really is that bad. To be absolutely sure that Labour forms the next government, all the Tories have to do is carry on as they are.
WTO means pretty low tariffs on everything bar some agriculture, while working well to keep our devices out.
The Scottish Government will use new borrowing powers "to the max", the finance secretary has said.
Derek Mackay made the comments while being scrutinised by MSPs at the finance committee on Wednesday at Holyrood.
From this April, the Scottish Government can borrow up to a maximum of £450m each year.
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1377805-finance-secretary-i-will-use-borrowing-powers-to-the-max/
I don't seem that many bankers clamouring to move to Paris, while Frankfurt bombs as an idea*. Dublin and Luxembourg are for back office staff and Amsterdam, isn't for work.
* too soon?
Are there any serious politicians in the ranks of the Alistair`s suspects?
I am guessing old Drump didn't confer with General Kelly before this tweet.
Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of money. We don't have a lot of leverage, ie things they are interested in that we can offer. Money is one leverage we do have. If we are paying them useful amounts of money, particularly if we cover their budget deficit so they don't have to go through a fraught rebudgeting process, we remove a problem for them. Removing problems for people makes you interesting to them.
Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?
Either 'Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough,' or the Remain way - 'Please don't hurt us anymore us, sir, we are even not worth of your contempt.'
Britain is a trading nation. For us, everything boils down to pound, shilling and pence. We cannot conceive that any country [ or entity ] will accept some instability and loss of temporary income. Of course, per capita, Britain's loss will be far greater. Thankfully, we do not hear that dross anymore that the EU will let us be in the single market because they need us so badly. For many in the continent, the EU is a project, acceptable to almost everyone from centre-right to the centre-left and a bit more. Only the crazy nutters on the far right and the far, far left oppose the EU. Note even at the height of the Greek crisis, no party in Greece wanted to leave the EU or the Euro. For these countries, a division 2 country was playing in the premier league. I remember many here in PB were announcing the death of the Euro. It was £1 = €1.40 then. Today, it is £1= €1.09. Only one currency is imploding!
Of course, in due course, we will agree an FTA. But don't hold your breath for it. It might take 7-10 years unless we are prepared to do a Norway and not to fall of the cliff.