politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s GE17 campaign was the first to see net CON seat losses

Has anybody told Simon Jordan that sticking "ization" on the end of every other word doesn't make you sound more intelligent?

MTimT said:

welshowl said:

At least they were building on one language, legal system,

Now two legal systems, although at the time it was one (Louisiana is Napoleonic Code).

Well I suppose we have two with Scotland too.

The USA has asked Russia to close their consulate in San Francisco and other operations in New York and Washington.

What keeps her in place other than fear of an election is that she's the only one who can keep fudging Brexit and maintaining the pretence that you can reconcile it's contradictions. Any Tory leadership contest would require candidates to set out a fresh approach to Brexit to justify their challenge. It can't just be "I'm more popular" because none of them are. They'd be rightly seen as an opportunist. To justify a change of leader the Tories have to show it's a move of substance to install a leader who'd pursue a new strategy. In practice that means a battle between the Osborne wing who view Brexit as a disaster for the country and want it watered down or, if opinion becomes more lukewarm on the idea, reversed, and the Rees-Mogg/Davis wing who think the best strategy is to engage in a battle of wills with the EU and would characterise anything but facing Brussels down as a betrayal or capitulation. Given the Tory membership, the latter likely wins but May has already shown the political risks of alienating liberal voters who have shown that whatever misgivings they have about Corbyn they'll vote Labour over a Tory Party that's openly antagonistic towards them. If Osborne's wing wins, then the Tories' UKIP problem returns with a vengance. Labour of course has similar divisions, but as an opposition can fudge and Corbyn's promissory socialism papers over the cracks as it offers something to both Labour's leavers and remainers, at least until it comes into contact with reality.

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is the UK government's table of areas of agreement and disagreement on citizen's rights:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/641334/2017-08-30_-_EU_UK_Comparison_Table_CR_AUGUST_day_2_FINAL_AGREED_VERSION_AGREED_with_Cion_V2.2.pdf

It's rather interesting, in a somewhat wonkish way. In particular, take a look at pages 13 to 15. The UK wants more mutual recognition of professional qualifications than the EU does, and wants grandfathered permissions to apply across all EU27 states. This is interesting because it's relevant to the selling of professional services into the EU.

Richard, thanks for posting that. It gives a very different impression re both progress and seriousness of the negotiations than provided by the EU side. With such well-defined and relatively few issues, it also shows how quickly progress could be made once there is a will.

welshowl said:

MTimT said:

welshowl said:

At least they were building on one language, legal system,

Now two legal systems, although at the time it was one (Louisiana is Napoleonic Code).

Well I suppose we have two with Scotland too.

Three if you include the the Beit Din courts.

MTimT said:

Richard, thanks for posting that. It gives a very different impression re both progress and seriousness of the negotiations than provided by the EU side. With such well-defined and relatively few issues, it also shows how quickly progress could be made once there is a will.

To an extent, although I'd caution that this is probably one of the easier parts of the overall negotiation.

Ishmael_Z said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/AaronBell80/status/903289534129074177
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/903289190913372160

It was the last bit of important news I learned about from a newspaper headline: "Dodi dead, Diana Hurt in Paris Crash", I think.

I heard it on Radio 4. I set my clock alarm (remember those) to play the Week Ending replay on Saturday morning.

So, my first assumption was that it was Week Ending doing a skit about the ridiculous over reaction people had to Princess Di news. After five minutes, I thought they had slightly overegged the pudding. After 10 minutes, I twigged that she really was dead.

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

It is at least arguable as to who started this war of revenge. May sacked him. And seemed to enjoy the process.

Tory Game of Thrones?

TheScreamingEagles said:

On transfer deadline day, he's going to sign for Arsenal?

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/903277062261235714

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

Hey, he took her advice when she sacked him.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/11/life-comes-at-you-fast-these-days-doesnt-it-mrs-may/

Not NK or Arsenal then:

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/903291859828711424

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Borough, why would Farage be going to North Korea?

Trump makes him the US ambassador. Our Nige will pour oil on troubled waters...

Morris_Dancer said:

A purely theoretical question: imagine someone self-employed may well be shortly looking for work. And has no references because he's been self-employed. How big a problem is this?

Tricky. Larger organizations especially public sector these days seem to require several references. You could get former clients maybe?

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MikeSmithson said:

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

But he's not as nasty as TMay who is simply incapable of interacting with people and hasn't the mental agility to cope with being questioned. Labour must be cheering her on in her desire to stay till the next GE.

It is becoming difficult to watch her do these two minute, fully brief and prepped, interviews to camera. She just looks, frankly, bloody terrified.

AlastairMeeks said:

The venom that Conservative Leavers feel for George Osborne is something to behold. Newsflash: he might sincerely believe what he says. Indeed, the evidence suggests that in large part he does.

Of course he believes it. There is a huge fault line in the Tory party and it may end up being as costly as the Tariff Reform.

AlastairMeeks said:

The venom that Conservative Leavers feel for George Osborne is something to behold. Newsflash: he might sincerely believe what he says. Indeed, the evidence suggests that in large part he does.

Indeed.

Amused that a local free sheet editor can enrage so many people.

Has anyone seen any detail on what the 'young man from Whitehall' said in his legal analysis of the divorce bill that upset the Eurocrats so much?

Baskerville said:

Has anyone seen any detail on what the 'young man from Whitehall' said in his legal analysis of the divorce bill that upset the Eurocrats so much?

That none of your obligations have been codified into treaties.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eek, Mr. Borough, Mr. Eagles, cheers, much appreciated.

You might be able to get something from college/school. I left uni three decades ago, but I approached my old department about five years ago for a reference because the client in question wanted some proof of academic skills (other than the certificates). Rather odd situation.

One of my most junior lecturers turned out to have stuck to it and was now the head of department! He didn't remember me, but he did remember my best friend on the course and was also able to dig up some formal records etc.

MTimT said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/AaronBell80/status/903289534129074177
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/903289190913372160

Nope.

The only reason I know exactly where we were is because we faced a 8 hour drive to what was then home from Richmond (Yorkshire) after house hunting. Stop 1 was trying to find somewhere to buy a CD to listen to in the hire car we had...

My first task when I discovered when the funeral was was to move our next shopping trip to Calais forward a fortnight...

PS Popbitch has a very good Will Carling Princess Di story...

I found the month following genuinely bewildering. I really did not understand what was going on. I have never felt so completely out of touch in my own country.

Ditto. I arrived back in the UK to those headlines, after an absence of 5 years. I pretty much wanted to get on the next plane and leave for another 5.

It was the thing with the Candle single that made me wonder - what the f*.

There was news video of people literally buying huge armfuls at a time of the thing. As if the more they bought, the more she might come back to life or something.

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the morning after Princess Diana's death, my wife and I got up and went off to visit Chartwell, without hearing any news. We were very pleasantly surprised to have the place almost entirely to ourselves. It was only as we were leaving that one of the attendants told us why it was empty.

As an alternative, I was camping in rural France when 9/11 happened. The campsite was empty that week apart from us (the French don't bother in September).

It was over a week before we heard any of the news.

Mr. Borough, on 9/11 I was at a 50th birthday dinner. That was an odd atmosphere.

SandraM said:

Whatever people think of Osborne as a politician or as a human being, I picked up a copy of the London Evening Standard yesterday on the train and I was impressed by how he has improved it.

I have been reading "The New European" on the beach today. It has turned into an excellent paper full of thoughtful reviews. I am tempted to subscribe, but apparently you get a signed copy of Alistair Campbells diaries with it.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Borough, on 9/11 I was at a 50th birthday dinner. That was an odd atmosphere.

7/7 was weird for me.

I lived and worked in London that time but I was in Madrid that day, I didn't know about it until I got a phone call from my mother, who was near hysterical wanting to know if I was ok.

I sheepishly replied that I was ok and in Madrid, then I got an earful for not telling her I had left the country for a few days.

But the events of 7/7 brought back bad memories for the people of Madrid.

Baskerville said:

Yes, but it was apparently a detailed powerpoint or similar multi-page takedown of their legal position... would love to see it or have a summary.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Baskerville said:

Has anyone seen any detail on what the 'young man from Whitehall' said in his legal analysis of the divorce bill that upset the Eurocrats so much?

That none of your obligations have been codified into treaties.

No running commentary unfortunately.

Baskerville said:

Yes, but it was apparently a detailed powerpoint or similar multi-page takedown of their legal position... would love to see it or have a summary.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Baskerville said:

Has anyone seen any detail on what the 'young man from Whitehall' said in his legal analysis of the divorce bill that upset the Eurocrats so much?

That none of your obligations have been codified into treaties.

Oddly enough it seems to be missing from the government papers available for download!

Mr. Eagles, the thing about 7/7 I remember was a southern twonk journalist claiming one of the nutcases had a broad Yorkshire accent, when he clearly had an ordinary one [for those unaware, broad Yorkshire is bloody indecipherable].

Incidentally, it's noticeable that no-one is now claiming that the UK Brexit team are amateurish and unprepared.

Much ado about nothing

or how Emmanuel Macron tinkered with fench labour laws

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the morning after Princess Diana's death, my wife and I got up and went off to visit Chartwell, without hearing any news. We were very pleasantly surprised to have the place almost entirely to ourselves. It was only as we were leaving that one of the attendants told us why it was empty.

I remember waking up at around 8am and turning on telly.

Clearly someone important had died but It wasn't immediately obvious who so I thought it was the Queen Mum.

About two minutes later it become obvious...

I woke my wife at 5am to tell her the news , after hearing it on radio 5..The first thing she said whilst half a wake , was do you think the spooks have done it ? She still believes it was more than just an accident.

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Incidentally, it's noticeable that no-one is now claiming that the UK Brexit team are amateurish and unprepared.

I never thought they were...

Nor did I, but that was the narrative in the media until a couple of weeks ago.

I was in a hotel outside Paris when Diana died coming back from Italy so being quite close to the scene of the tragedy brought it home. We awoke to the Sky news reports which I broke to disbelieving parents and at Dover when we were back on British soil a grown man was in floods of tears in the car next to us. Her death was our Kennedy assassination however she loves on through her son's and grandson who are the future of the monarchy. I also did an internship at the Princess Diana Memorial Fund one summer about 5 years ago which did a lot of good work from the donations made in memory of her

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, the thing about 7/7 I remember was a southern twonk journalist claiming one of the nutcases had a broad Yorkshire accent, when he clearly had an ordinary one [for those unaware, broad Yorkshire is bloody indecipherable].

South Yorkshire can be , York seems very mild in comparison.

I was too young for Diana's death to have a meaningful impact (had I wanted it to) so I don't remember a great deal of the aftermath. On that morning though I woke my parents up early in the morning, complaining "There's no children's TV, a Princess has died"

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the morning after Princess Diana's death, my wife and I got up and went off to visit Chartwell, without hearing any news. We were very pleasantly surprised to have the place almost entirely to ourselves. It was only as we were leaving that one of the attendants told us why it was empty.

I remember waking up at around 8am and turning on telly.

Clearly someone important had died but It wasn't immediately obvious who so I thought it was the Queen Mum.

About two minutes later it become obvious...

I woke my wife at 5am to tell her the news , after hearing it on radio 5..The first thing she said whilst half a wake , was do you think the spooks have done it ? She still believes it was more than just an accident.

So does my Mother...

I think it will always be one of the deaths where about half the population believes it was a conspiracy...

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the morning after Princess Diana's death, my wife and I got up and went off to visit Chartwell, without hearing any news. We were very pleasantly surprised to have the place almost entirely to ourselves. It was only as we were leaving that one of the attendants told us why it was empty.

I remember waking up at around 8am and turning on telly.

Clearly someone important had died but It wasn't immediately obvious who so I thought it was the Queen Mum.

About two minutes later it become obvious...

I woke my wife at 5am to tell her the news , after hearing it on radio 5..The first thing she said whilst half a wake , was do you think the spooks have done it ? She still believes it was more than just an accident.

My first thought on hearing the news was that that would be THE NEWS for at least the next two weeks (months), and probably longer...

MikeSmithson said:

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

But he's not as nasty as TMay who is simply incapable of interacting with people and hasn't the mental agility to cope with being questioned. Labour must be cheering her on in her desire to stay till the next GE.

This probably makes TMay unsuited as PM. I do not understand why it makes her nasty though.

TheScreamingEagles said:

PeterC said:

MikeSmithson said:

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

But he's not as nasty as TMay who is simply incapable of interacting with people and hasn't the mental agility to cope with being questioned. Labour must be cheering her on in her desire to stay till the next GE.

This probably makes TMay unsuited as PM. I do not understand why it makes her nasty though.

Her condoning of the bullying behaviour of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill makes her a nasty person.

you really have lost the plot

The US consumes 83% of the world's oxycodone.

Jaw hits floor...

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PeterC said:

MikeSmithson said:

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

But he's not as nasty as TMay who is simply incapable of interacting with people and hasn't the mental agility to cope with being questioned. Labour must be cheering her on in her desire to stay till the next GE.

This probably makes TMay unsuited as PM. I do not understand why it makes her nasty though.

Her condoning of the bullying behaviour of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill makes her a nasty person.

you really have lost the plot

I condemned Brown for it, so when I was getting first hand reports of Mrs May and her staff's behaviour, I pointed it out here, I'm consistent.

FrancisUrquhart said:

The US consumes 83% of the world's oxycodone.

Jaw hits floor...

Is it profitable? I somehow suspect it is given how the US Health service works...

eek said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PeterC said:

MikeSmithson said:

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

But he's not as nasty as TMay who is simply incapable of interacting with people and hasn't the mental agility to cope with being questioned. Labour must be cheering her on in her desire to stay till the next GE.

This probably makes TMay unsuited as PM. I do not understand why it makes her nasty though.

Her condoning of the bullying behaviour of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill makes her a nasty person.

you really have lost the plot

The stories that have come out about Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill's behaviour do make me wonder if she was paying attention to what was going on...

lol

yes because politicians are all fragrant violets

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PeterC said:

MikeSmithson said:

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

But he's not as nasty as TMay who is simply incapable of interacting with people and hasn't the mental agility to cope with being questioned. Labour must be cheering her on in her desire to stay till the next GE.

This probably makes TMay unsuited as PM. I do not understand why it makes her nasty though.

Her condoning of the bullying behaviour of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill makes her a nasty person.

you really have lost the plot

I condemned Brown for it, so when I was getting first hand reports of Mrs May and her staff's behaviour, I pointed it out here, I'm consistent.

ROFL

and cheered on all of Osborne's chicanery

the moral high is best not taken in a swamp

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PeterC said:

MikeSmithson said:

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

But he's not as nasty as TMay who is simply incapable of interacting with people and hasn't the mental agility to cope with being questioned. Labour must be cheering her on in her desire to stay till the next GE.

This probably makes TMay unsuited as PM. I do not understand why it makes her nasty though.

Her condoning of the bullying behaviour of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill makes her a nasty person.

you really have lost the plot

I condemned Brown for it, so when I was getting first hand reports of Mrs May and her staff's behaviour, I pointed it out here, I'm consistent.

ROFL

and cheered on all of Osborne's chicanery

the moral high is best not taken in a swamp

Chicanery is synonymous with bullying? Is English your first language?

Show me a single example of someone alleging Osborne bullying them?

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PeterC said:

MikeSmithson said:

RoyalBlue said:

Osborne is a vengeful and unpleasant piece of work. If he and his underlings succeed in scuppering May and Brexit, Labour will win a landslide next time.

But he's not as nasty as TMay who is simply incapable of interacting with people and hasn't the mental agility to cope with being questioned. Labour must be cheering her on in her desire to stay till the next GE.

This probably makes TMay unsuited as PM. I do not understand why it makes her nasty though.

Her condoning of the bullying behaviour of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill makes her a nasty person.

you really have lost the plot

I condemned Brown for it, so when I was getting first hand reports of Mrs May and her staff's behaviour, I pointed it out here, I'm consistent.

ROFL

and cheered on all of Osborne's chicanery

the moral high is best not taken in a swamp

Chicanery is synonymous with bullying? Is English your first language?

Show me a single example of someone alleging Osborne bullying them?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-accused-of-bullying-over-tax-credit-cuts-a6707356.html

target rich environment

Chortle. You think that's bullying?

Plus you can see what George was up against trying to cut the deficit.

Stephen Daisley - Pain, loss, and the miserably high price of seizing Scottish Labour’s poison chalice

"As the late makar Edwin Morgan observed of the pell-mell cluster of buildings sitting squat at the foot of the Royal Mile: ‘What do the people want of the place? They want it to be filled with thinking persons as open and adventurous as its architecture.’ Instead we have an assemblage of the bland and the fanatic, the absurdly self-righteous and the creepily ambitious.

Kezia Dugdale now returns to the backbenches, there to regain that precious treasure, a normal life. Who amongst us could blame her? The fact that so many politicians would confirms that those who represent us are nothing like us."

CarlottaVance said:

I'll admit I was rather shocked by Theresa May's answer to my question over whether she wanted to fight the next general election.

She responded with a straight "Yes."

Firstly, she'd not said it before; secondly it was an unequivocal answer to a direct question by a Prime Minister who often avoids and deflects with pre-planned soundbites, not always relevant to the inquiry.

Then I was left wondering, what choice did she have? At some point the Prime Minister had to put this question to bed. With reports, perhaps "fake news," suggesting she'd set a date to resign - it was time to take a position.

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/903259653727023104

Interesting she answered "wanted to" not "will". The headlines reported "will"