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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s GE17 campaign was the first to see net CON seat losses
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s GE17 campaign was the first to see net CON seat losses since the Blair landslide 20 years ago
One of the consequences of her statement that she’d like to fight the next general election is that people will recall what happened in June when nearly two decades of recovery for the party came to an abrupt end.
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If people think Brexit is going to be a disaster and that we will have to return to the EU with our tail between our legs the best strategy is simple.... just be silent and wait, let it happen on its own accord. Insulting leave voters and cheering whenever the UK suffers a setback in negotiations doesn't create converts to the cause, it strengthens the resolve of brexiteers and sows further division. You want people to sheepishly say "you were right" and then follow your original advice? Just sit still and wait for it all to unfold, and if it turns out you were wrong then you can be pleasantly surprised.
TLDR; No one says thank you to arseholes who constantly try to rub their noses in it. Just wait it out if you have the courage of your convictions.
You don't need to convince people they got it wrong when the context in which they made the decision is no longer relevant. They won't be sheepishly saying "you were right" to Remainers; they will be angrily saying "you were wrong" to Brexiteers.
Downhill = More seat losses until they are out of power.
The Tories only need to lose around 10-15 seats and a Rainbow coalition becomes viable.
https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/903247466413350912
That is why she has really pissed me off. She faced a critical period for the UK with a modest but a solid majority and she completely screwed it up against someone who made Kinnock look Prime Ministerial and numerate. And we will all end up paying a price for her stupid arrogance. As Mike says, it is truly extraordinary that she is still there. Incompetence and ineptitude on this scale should not be tolerated, let alone rewarded.
Furthermore, if you're constantly complaining then people are far less likely to listen to you when you need to highlight something of real importance. Useful lesson for all aspects of life, not just brexit chat...
I'm coming to conclusion that Andrea Leadsom should have won last year.
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/903252790243467264
I don't think Brexit is going to be a slam dunk but I thought it was a risk worth taking, especially as at some point we were either going to have to embrace federalism and the euro or take a more detached position. To a certain point my vote to leave was a preemptive one, assuming that leaving in 10, 15, or 20 years would be even more difficult than leaving now.
As regards Brexit, who knows what they would do? Cancelling it is unlikely to be an option, and in any case McDonnell and Corbyn don't want to cancel it.
Criticism of May is valid, but it should be recognised that she's still dealing with the Tories enduring unpopularity that's kept them to one small majority in 20 years
She responded with a straight "Yes."
Firstly, she'd not said it before; secondly it was an unequivocal answer to a direct question by a Prime Minister who often avoids and deflects with pre-planned soundbites, not always relevant to the inquiry.
Then I was left wondering, what choice did she have? At some point the Prime Minister had to put this question to bed. With reports, perhaps "fake news," suggesting she'd set a date to resign - it was time to take a position.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/903259653727023104
But, it was probably inevitable. With only 52 per cent wanting to Brexit, the truth is that the Brexiteers position is weak. The Bremainers position is weaker.
May lost seats (especially in London & the South) because Tory Bremainers did not want leave.
There is no good option once a country breaks almost 50:50.
In olden times, after 5 years of Civil War, one side would have emerged victorious. Instead, we'll probably have 50 years of wrangling about Europe, unable either to finally leave or to properly participate (i.e., the worst of all worlds).
As the incumbent PM she has more stick-ability than a leader of the opposition.
Her tenure at the top is so far very short and at the time of the election with no overall majority the PM has breathing space from serious internal strife, assuming the party wants to retain power.
Around the time of the election was the best time to challenge. The time needed negotiating a deal with DUP saved her there
It isn't the best time to take on the top job, unless you have a substantial teflon coating it will be hard to escape lumps of detritus and effluent from the Brexit shenanigans adhering to you with permanence.
Would be successors recognise that the ideal time for a coup is late 2019 or 2020. Gives them a up to couple of years in No 10 to build a reputation, brand and image as prime-ministerial.
They need time to learn how to fight JC and his style of campaign (is a hard task) and politics presented from his perspective.
From a historic viewpoint in the party you don't want to be seen as the one with blood on your hands as you slip the knife back into your pocket. You may not win.
None of the potential challengers were in a challenge and campaign ready mode after the election, as the polls had indicated (for most of the time) a Tory landslide, so the assumption was a popular and successful leader, not one who needed challenging after the election.
The contrast with the birth of the USA is enormous. They spent a few months in about 1787 thrashing out states' rights vs the centre and it's held ever since, though they fudged slavery as an issue and it nearly cost them their unity 75 odd years later. At least they were building on one language, legal system, and a common history, including in arms together.
How does the EU achieve something like that with democratic consent? Nobody with real clout like a Merkel has actually proposed just that with a 10 year deadline or whatever. It's all, salami slice here, nudge there, don't look at what the left hand is doing under the table look at the right one, and vote against integration and you have to do it again because nothing can stand in the way of the Project. It's cobbled together because they are scared of actually having their 1787 moment and finding out people don't actually want it. Hence the stealth.
Beyond that I just can't see how you have a functioning democracy which can correct errors, and media to hold it to account, and a legal system to glue it together in a world of 25 or so competing languages and no universal lingua francs. It's Austria Hungary all over, created on the hoof, only superficially having much in common, and eventually only held together by threat of force.
This is the media trying to manufacture a story. What else was she to say?
"I believe that a Prime Minister should want to achieve things and not just squat in office. I have an important job to do leading the country through Brexit and for now I'm focussed on that. If I feel that I have a further contribution to make at the end of that process and the country wishes me to continue, then I will seek to make that contribution."
Theresa May excels in that kind of waffle. It's surprising that she didn't offer it on this occasion.
To make the EU a nation state, 27 states with fiercely proud indigenous populations, variable cultures, religions and languages need to bury a millennium or two of history and all play nicely together.
The only way it can happen long term is the Kim jong un method. Or Tito etc.
In fact I'm quite surprised they're in such poor financial health seeing as they have ~ 2000 members per seat, a number Labour are at just over half of.
With a relatively huge membership, it must take some piss poor financial planning to attain a negative net worth.
1) the EU isn't becoming a nation state
2) outside the UK, the EU itself is reasonably popular in the rest of the EU, and apparently getting more so in many member states if recent polling is to be believed and
3) the UK itself is a pretty good example of how a state can be imposed top down with considerable success.
This is a very cool video btw http://www.viralforest.com/watch-1000-years-european-borders-change/
Malc's probably penning his reply to you with his sgian dubh as we speak!
She did it so consistently in the general election campaign...
Approx!
Personally, I'd go from when Edward I crushed Llewellyn, but there we are.
Mr. rkrkrk, and was constantly criticised (fairly) for not answering questions.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/903277062261235714
As someone who did more than most to advance our level of European integration put it:
"The European Community is a practical means by which Europe can ensure the future prosperity and security of its people in a world in which there are many other powerful nations and groups of nations.
"We Europeans cannot afford to waste our energies on internal disputes or arcane institutional debates."
The EU is what it is. It may not be perfect, but if it didn't exit we'd invent something that looked very similar to what we have.
I almost always prefer straight answers - but even I can see that sometimes the best thing is to lie or obfuscate.
Whether this was one of those times I don't know. But having so uncharacteristically given a straight answer to such a juicy question - we/she can hardly be surprised that it is news.
Possibly, as others speculated, she intended it to be news.
I suspect - and I could be wrong - that the Conservatives increased their vote share most in places where the Leave vote was greatest.
Also, shot or loosed. It's a pet hate of mine and a mistake I sometimes make myself. There's no fire involved in an arrow being shot.
By outlasting I assume you date Austria Hungary from about 1867- which is fair enough on the one hand. I was more meaning a series of cobbled together territories made by fortuitous marriages and inheritances combined with a bit of frontier warfare over several centuries to create a patchwork hotch potch that eventually fell apart because not enough people bought in to it. If democracy had been allowed it would've vanished much sooner I am sure- but that's one of those things we will never know because it didn't.
I'm assuming it was one of those weapons grade arrow firing things.
Switzerland, for example, with its different religions and languages, was very far from a nation state even as recently as 1800. But by 1900, it certainly looked like one.
I'll get my coat.....
.... the modern equivalent of ballista?
er, the single market is a free trade market. World's biggest surely. Why are we leaving? So we don't have to wait for the EU to do a deal with Japan.
Oh wait...
This really isn't hard.
I suspect (2) is very tepid, most member state electorates back their own Governments against Brussels and I suspect turnout in the 2019 EU elections to be at its usual derisory levels.
In the meantime, I'll assume he's still acting in the character he's been accustomed to for at least the last 6 years and is "plotting the downfall of his enemies", as he reportedly said he would devote himself to doing last year.
I've noticed a few people attribute the referendum or election result to whatever topic is currently in the news/suits their current debating position.
If so the arrow isn't an arrow, it's a bolt or quarrel.
“The President of the Commission, Mr. Delors, said at a press conference the other day that he wanted the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the Community, he wanted the Commission to be the Executive and he wanted the Council of Ministers to be the Senate. No. No. No.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/641334/2017-08-30_-_EU_UK_Comparison_Table_CR_AUGUST_day_2_FINAL_AGREED_VERSION_AGREED_with_Cion_V2.2.pdf
It's rather interesting, in a somewhat wonkish way. In particular, take a look at pages 13 to 15. The UK wants more mutual recognition of professional qualifications than the EU does, and wants grandfathered permissions to apply across all EU27 states. This is interesting because it's relevant to the selling of professional services into the EU.
In any case May is still there because not only are the Tories still roughly tied with Labour in the polls but as last month's Survation showed no alternative Tory leader would do better against Corbyn than May except Boris by 0.1%