politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “Will Trump survive full term betting” edges back to him m
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “Will Trump survive full term betting” edges back to him making it
I love today’s New York Daily News front page that I thought it would be a good peg to look at what are by far the biggest current political betting markets – will Trump survive a full term and what year will he leave the White House.
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If he's a total disaster there is a chance the Republican senators throw him to the wolves as well as the Dem controlled house post Nov 2018 in an impeachment, or force him from office, but I don't see how that's odds on.
Don't just say "money". She's stuck with him for ages.
Yes, there have been many left behind: but that was the same ten, twenty or thirty years before.
Impeachement is a 'be careful what you wish for'.
Then there are the economic problems of we industrialisation, and the increasing political divide. Parts of America are doing well economically and socially, but these are not Trumpland, they voted Democrat.
Trump is making just his second visit since taking office West of the Mississippi for this rally. He has nothing to show for his first six months achievements. The emperor still has a fine suit of clothes though.
The only threat to his term is his health, he is safe politically, but after 4 years of Trump the decline in America will be more marked.
Edit - although I suppose 'bad boy syndrome' might be a genuine explanation.
Whether or not your view on US is correct or not Trump didn't cause the problems, your pin up boy Obama has been at the helm for 8 years. You need to look closer to home for who created the mess America is in.
PS its not in a mess
Parts of America are great, and have potential to grow stronger still, but those are the coasts and a few university cities between. The flyover states that were the heartland are not doing well at all. Even Trump can see that.
In the past many of the white working class still had the belief work hard and life will be better for me and the family in 10 years time. It is this group that Trump's slogan is aimed at, but it would not be so snappy if it were more truthful "Make America tolerable for the white working class again"
Mr. Doof, an astute post that belies your (posting) surname.
We seem a similar thinning of the middle class here.
You keep shooting yourself in the foot mate
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/07/social-mobility-america/491240/
The American Dream has always had elements of myth, but seems to struggle even more now.
Trump is a narcissistic buffoon with the attention span of a goldfish and the morals of an alley cat, but even he can see the decline.
I found it so weird to be bombarded with adverts for prescription drugs to deal with serious medical conditions when I visited America. Some of them were ridiculous...
One shouldn't exaggerate though. Most Americans still have an enviable standard of living.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/08/21/facebook-patents-oculus-augmented-reality-glasses/
Real cutting edge technology in some places, soul destroying poverty in others.
Trump is (like other populists) a symptom of decline and debasement, not the cure.
All elected politicians are populists, its why they're elected. Trump may or may not solve America's problems, he certainly didn't cause them.
I'm currently looking at various aspects of UK and US economy and politics. The differences in the background of our top twenty richest people is quite something, and looks very bad for us.
' The UK’s mammoth current account deficit was £18bn larger than previously thought in 2015, according to revisions to the national accounts released today by government statisticians.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the revisions today ahead of changes to how the national accounts are collated, which will be begin with revised national accounts figures covering 2016 at the end of September.
The revisions to the current account figures show that the UK borrowed almost £100bn from the rest of the world in 2015 overall, much more than was previously thought. Indeed, the current account deficit was bigger than thought in every year in the period scrutinised, from 1997 to 2015.
Meanwhile the net international investment position – the difference between foreign assets owned by Britons and British assets owned by foreigners – saw a massive revision of £261bn for 2015.
Most other comparable developed nations have far lower current account deficits, or even large surpluses. In 2016 Turkey, the nearest rival to the UK in the G20 group of major economies, had a current account deficit of 3.7 per cent, while Germany’s surplus stood at 8.4 per cent. '
http://www.cityam.com/270607/uk-current-account-deficit-18bn-bigger-2015-than-previously
"Third, although social mobility has not changed much over time, it varies widely from place to place. In a second paper, the economists crunch their tax statistics by region. They find that the probability of a child born into the poorest fifth of the population in San Jose, California making it to the top is 12.9%, not much lower than in Denmark. In Charlotte, North Carolina it is 4.4%, far lower than anywhere else in the rich world."
From: https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21595437-america-no-less-socially-mobile-it-was-generation-ago-mobility-measured
It argues that social mobility remains static in America, albeit not as good as most of Europe.
I could do a thread for OGH if he wanted.
Perhaps the biggest difference is in the provision of education and healthcare for those at the bottom.
Not overwhelmingly generous odds, though.
The most significant difference between here and the US is arguably the much larger size of their market - it might be no harder to make £100m, but getting to your first billion I would guess more difficult.
Social mobility and class are as complex in America as here. While America is ruled by patricians similar to Blair or Cameron, they do seem to lack the more petit bourgeois politicians that we have in May, Brown, Major or Thatcher at the top.
Take Jeff Bezos. A self-made 100% American. Yet his story is more complex: the grandson of a bureaucrat and son of two Americans, his step-dad, who was in his life from age 4 and whose name he has taken, was a Cuban immigrant.
One thing that has come up that I was unaware of: Montessori schools have come up more than a handful of times so far.
Mayweather to win by TKO, KO or disqualification is 5/6 with bet365.
This will look like a bullfight, Macgregor charging in wildly, Mayweather moving around before finishing him off. I think Macgregor will lose it completely and try a kick or wrestling move, 5/6 is great value.
There's something about a solar eclipse that even in the modern age still elicits a sense of awe and wonder. The impact it had on people centuries ago when these events were neither understood nor predictable is understandable and forms part of our history and culture.
I watched the pictures of the solar eclipse from Hopkinsville in Kentucky and they certainly had a better view than Mr & Mrs Stodge Senior had in St Ives in 1999 when cloud meant totality was more about the shadow rolling across the ground than anything else. The impact the eclipse had on nature and on light-sensitive devices showed the commonality of confusion between the natural and the man-made.
Ironically, on that day, I was in London and while we didn't have totality, my recollection was the light changed and became somehow colder and more distant. The shadows looked wrong and it was just odd (good scientific term there).
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/420794/does-us-have-lower-social-mobility-other-countries-scott-winship
The 'Make America Great Again' is old fashioned populist schtick. It taps into people's sense of nostalgia for a golden age that almost certainly didn't exist. No doubt small town america was better in some ways in the 1950s, with the steel mill open, mom and pop stores, an ice cream parlour and everyone going bowling on Saturday night. But it can't be bought back and definitely not so good, to say the least, if you were black.
It also has the subliminal message, at least for some voters, that an america before civil rights was better.
It's clever politics. Far better than Clinton's, and I read the other day she went through 100 different slogans and catchphrases before deciding on the final one.
"In low-skilled communities the difference in support for leave between graduates and those with GCSEs was 20 points. In high-skilled communities it was over 40 points. In low-skill areas the proportion of A-level holders voting leave was closer to that of people with low-skills. In high-skill areas their vote was much more similar to graduates."
https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-opportunities
How will the base react?
Actually, this move will see him survive his first term now, as there is no real reason to remove him now that he is doing what he's supposed to do. However, I think the odds on him being re-elected just got a lot longer, because he's now doing, and will continue to do, what his base elected him not to.
Theresa May is more likely to support Trump with UK Armed Forces than Corbyn and therefore that risks more body bags arriving at Brize Norton. Given the security risks nearer to the UK, Corbyn might well receive more public support for investing in Armed Forces securing the UK and not risking their lifes thousands of miles away in actions that might prove useless in securing a more peaceful world.
Trump is arguably a big problem for the UK, as he is not likely to be a reliable friend to the UK. With a trade deal after Brexit to be negotiated, i suspect Trump might well use this to argue for UK support with actions the US wishes to take. Given the importance of the value of defence exports in particular and the importance many Tories place on the US/UK ' special relationship', Theresa May might find it difficult to say no. Jeremy Corbyn would not have the same problem.
It certainly applies in spades to millions of Eastern Europeans who have taken the opportunity to move thousands of miles for better paid work and opportunities.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
It's moved down quite sharply in the last couple of days. Trump's popularity figure is now down to 37.1%, not much above his all time low of 36.6%. These are historically very low numbers. Anything below 40% is dangerous. I should think if he gets below 35% he's losing the base and his own Party will want to see him gone before he can do much more damage.
The betting markets have responded accordingly and started to shorten once more the odds of him not making the full term. The only odds to lengthen are those on him going this year, but that would be due to elapse of time rather than his position becoming stronger.
So he is in the strange position of not wanting to cut and run for admirable reasons, but of not having a hope in hell of achieving that aim because forget Washington insiders, the US public would not stand for hundreds of thousands of boots on the ground to create a space for civic society to emerge. And nor of course would the British public which is why our commitment will be limited to advisers.
Polling figures alone won't do it - unpopularity is a necessary, but far from sufficient condition.
I also note on my travels that internationally this is true. Middle class lifestyles in Africa or Asia increasingly resemble western Norms, while the mass of poor people in these places live very different lives indeed.
The series of travelogues on the Indian/Pakistan border showing at 2100 on Monday (after Nadiya's campaign to spread diabetes!) are quite revealing this way.
I don’t know what the best course of action is, but sending in troops isn’t.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/22/toppling-statues-nelsons-column-should-be-next-slavery
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/899900238114291713
I've had some winnings but I don't know what they were for.
However, the CIA financial (and other) support of the mujahideen led to the success of the Taliban wing thereof.
The 9/11 attacks were on an unprecedented size, scale and severity and there had to be a response and naturally the British public (and let's not forget British people died in New York that day too) were supportive of the attempt to hunt down and eliminate Bin Laden and AQ.
The "clueless pacifist left" (of which I'm one by your measure) were more doubtful about intervention in Iraq and unlike your hapless Party leader at the time, didn't believe the propaganda and didn't want to join Bush's foolish adventure. I think that view was vindicated by what has happened subsequently.
What is the "answer" to radical Islam ? Well, you'd better believe if there was an easy one we'd be doing it by now. I suppose if the radicals are coming in from outside, there is something you can do - if the radicals are your own people and are among you already, that becomes much more difficult.
Seriously though, I suspect Afghan won't affect his vote with the base. When he doesn't deliver a re-opened steel mill or coal mine in their town, then they'll probably turn. Even then, you read vox pops in which voters say they know really he probably wont be able to bring them back, but at least he talks about the issue and sounds like he gives a f*.
If you look at ISIS recruitment for example, they have had people join them from all over the world. I just wonder whether ISIS would have ever existed had it not been for Afghanistan and Iraq wars.