politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the SNP’s MPs would probably not support a vote for an ear
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the SNP’s MPs would probably not support a vote for an early general election
Ever since it became clear that Mrs. May’s June election gamble had failed and she’d lost her majority there’s been lots of speculation that this parliament will not go through to its full term in June 2022. Maybe but there the obstacle to surmount of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which was part of the coalition deal in 2010. The days when a PM can pop along to the Palace and call an election are long gone.
Comments
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Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election.
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Questions have been raised over the general election expenses of Liberal Democrat deputy leader Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire.
Ms Swinson's campaign spending came in £210 below the legal limit, but reports say this was only after almost £7,000 of costs were disregarded.
Row over Jo Swinson election spending in East Dunbartonshire
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-409596140 -
The city mayors Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham could lose their speech slots at the Labour party conference this year under a stripped-back speaking programme which will prioritise party member debates.0
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Interesting that swings under 3% would give 5 more Tories , 7 more Labour and 1 more LD0
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The SNP are the Tory party's little helpers as history has shown.
The SNP voted against Labour in the 1979 vote of no confidence which helped usher in 18 years of Tory rule and Thatcherism
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With increasing age, having two elections one after the other becomes more of a challenge.0
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I think the next GE might conceivably destroy the SNP.
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We wouldn't be far off from the Tories being from the largest party in Scotland.felix said:Interesting that swings under 3% would give 5 more Tories , 7 more Labour and 1 more LD
We're going to need a bigger klaxon.0 -
I'm sure Jeremy will cope.SandyRentool said:With increasing age, having two elections one after the other becomes more of a challenge.
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I wouldJosiasJessop said:Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election.0 -
Rather like Universal Basic income that was discussed at the bottom of the last thread, the SNP voting against an election is one of those things that works a lot better in theory than it does in practice.0
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Maybe more interesting is what happens in 2021 with the next Scottish elections. If the SNP lose there, then indie2 is dead in the water.0
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Iain Martin has an article in The Times today claiming that decline and fall of Alex Salmond is a model for the future of Corbyn0
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The challenge for Ruthie is to get more leapfrogs from 3rd to 1st. East Lothian? Edin N? Falkirk? Fife NE? Linlithgow & E. Falkirk? Midlothian?TheScreamingEagles said:
We wouldn't be far off from the Tories being from the largest party in Scotland.felix said:Interesting that swings under 3% would give 5 more Tories , 7 more Labour and 1 more LD
We're going to need a bigger klaxon.
Simples 0 -
I'm not that far away from getting my universal basic incomeSandpit said:Rather like Universal Basic income that was discussed at the bottom of the last thread, the SNP voting against an election is one of those things that works a lot better in theory than it does in practice.
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Maybe the 'Democrats' would be keen if they become a thing.MikeSmithson said:
I wouldJosiasJessop said:Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election. 0 -
Jacob Rees-Mogg is the man to win all the Glasgow seats for the Tories.felix said:
The challenge for Ruthie is to get more leapfrogs from 3rd to 1st. East Lothian? Edin N? Falkirk? Fife NE? Linlithgow & E. Falkirk? Midlothian?TheScreamingEagles said:
We wouldn't be far off from the Tories being from the largest party in Scotland.felix said:Interesting that swings under 3% would give 5 more Tories , 7 more Labour and 1 more LD
We're going to need a bigger klaxon.
Simples0 -
Up to a point Lord Copper - up to a point!TheScreamingEagles said:
Jacob Rees-Mogg is the man to win all the Glasgow seats for the Tories.felix said:
The challenge for Ruthie is to get more leapfrogs from 3rd to 1st. East Lothian? Edin N? Falkirk? Fife NE? Linlithgow & E. Falkirk? Midlothian?TheScreamingEagles said:
We wouldn't be far off from the Tories being from the largest party in Scotland.felix said:Interesting that swings under 3% would give 5 more Tories , 7 more Labour and 1 more LD
We're going to need a bigger klaxon.
Simples0 -
They're between a Stone of Scone and a hard place right now.Blue_rog said:
I'm not that far away from getting my universal basic incomeSandpit said:Rather like Universal Basic income that was discussed at the bottom of the last thread, the SNP voting against an election is one of those things that works a lot better in theory than it does in practice.
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Matt is the undisputed genius of getting two unrelated stories into a simple cartoon.
https://twitter.com/BenHatch/status/898065580921675777/photo/10 -
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/08/17/has-anyone-bothered-to-ask-what-the-eu-gets-out-of-all-this
Our plans have no resonance, because they are tailored around our own needs rather than those of our negotiating partner.
More than anything, this is just a really bad strategy. The longer we insist on thinking only about ourselves, the less able we are to get what we want.0 -
Corbyn doesn't do jokes. He only does the sexism.Sandpit said:
Will we get to see Corbyn making sexist jokes on the Edinburgh Fringe in five years' time as well?Scott_P said:Iain Martin has an article in The Times today claiming that decline and fall of Alex Salmond is a model for the future of Corbyn
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The SNP are nowhere near as bad as the SDP for being Tory's little helpers, yet many people here seem to pine for the SDP...TheScreamingEagles said:The SNP are the Tory party's little helpers as history has shown.
The SNP voted against Labour in the 1979 vote of no confidence which helped usher in 18 years of Tory rule and Thatcherism
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Incidentally, re A Levels. If passes are up and the gap between boys' and girls' achievement is narrowing, that is a pretty unambiguous signal that the exams are getting easier, IMO.0
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Was it a narrowing of the gap? Thought it was boys' achievement surpassed girls'?Alice_Aforethought said:Incidentally, re A Levels. If passes are up and the gap between boys' and girls' achievement is narrowing, that is a pretty unambiguous signal that the exams are getting easier, IMO.
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Or that they are starting to become less dependent on swotting and memorisation.Alice_Aforethought said:Incidentally, re A Levels. If passes are up and the gap between boys' and girls' achievement is narrowing, that is a pretty unambiguous signal that the exams are getting easier, IMO.
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A-level results
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/charts/embed/aug/2017-08-17T07:16:41/embed.html
we get very fussed over really small changes.0 -
Doesn't it suggest that less emphasis is being placed on coursework?Alice_Aforethought said:Incidentally, re A Levels. If passes are up and the gap between boys' and girls' achievement is narrowing, that is a pretty unambiguous signal that the exams are getting easier, IMO.
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I don't know his leadership of the PLP appeared to be a constant series of jokes...His one about the packed virgin train was a side splitter.Alice_Aforethought said:
Corbyn doesn't do jokes. He only does the sexism.Sandpit said:
Will we get to see Corbyn making sexist jokes on the Edinburgh Fringe in five years' time as well?Scott_P said:Iain Martin has an article in The Times today claiming that decline and fall of Alex Salmond is a model for the future of Corbyn
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Surpassed within certain grade ranges I think. More A*As, but weaker elsewhere (on a quick scan).Mortimer said:Was it a narrowing of the gap? Thought it was boys' achievement surpassed girls'?
Possibly, yes; how do you envisage that would work? AIUI, the slide in relative performance arose from the introduction of more modules and continuous assessment. These mean that grades are based in some measure on (possibly) assisted and (certainly) time-unlimited work, as opposed to output under controlled conditions of comparison (which used to favour boys). Achieving an improvement in boys' grades under the current structure would entail either a complex reformulation of the course and the marking systems, or alternatively, you could just give boys more generous grades.PClipp said:Or that they are starting to become less dependent on swotting and memorisation.
edit: I had totally cocked up the quote formatting0 -
Pretty good first over for Eng at Edgbaston - 10-1!0
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Good afternoon, everyone.
It's certainly statistically intriguing, but I'd be surprised if the scenario arises. Worth knowing, though.0 -
What a Tosser Trump isTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Let's see if England can keep up 10 an over all night!0
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Any chance of Andrew Strauss coming out of retirement for The Ashes?0
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Mr. Mortimer, you prophet of doom!0
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Mass produced tat celebrating those who fought to retain the utterly brutal system of plantation slavery.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://hyperallergic.com/384776/the-norths-role-in-supplying-the-south-with-confederate-monuments/0 -
Why? What difference would it make?MikeSmithson said:
I wouldJosiasJessop said:Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election.0 -
And another wannabe opener bites the dust...
...for this innings, at least.0 -
Mrs C, betting opportunities, surely?0
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PB is going through a fallow period, in terms of betting opportunities, a general election would change all that.Beverley_C said:
Why? What difference would it make?MikeSmithson said:
I wouldJosiasJessop said:Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election.
I'm hoping the SNP are so offended by this thread they say it is casus belli for a second Indyref.0 -
Well at least it gives Stoneman someone to blame.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Mortimer, you prophet of doom!
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They wouldn't need to vote against an election. They would simply need to find some contorted piece of SNP logic which would allow them to claim, with a moderately straight face, that being unavoidably absent from the vote was a decisive blow for Scotland.Sandpit said:Rather like Universal Basic income that was discussed at the bottom of the last thread, the SNP voting against an election is one of those things that works a lot better in theory than it does in practice.
For a party which managed to claim that a vote on fox-hunting in England would not be an England-only matter, I'd have thought this should be a breeze.0 -
I presume all the people betting against Merkel in 2015 are too busy thinking about what to spend their winnings on.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB is going through a fallow period, in terms of betting opportunities, a general election would change all that.Beverley_C said:
Why? What difference would it make?MikeSmithson said:
I wouldJosiasJessop said:Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election.0 -
At least he's unlikely to have to worry about his own statues.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I agree with Trump, you can't change history.
I blame the University of Oxford for all this nonsense and their acquiescence to the Rhodes must fall nonsense.0 -
Perhaps he'll erect one of Nigel Farage.Nigelb said:At least he's unlikely to have to worry about his own statues.
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wrong way round,PClipp said:
Or that they are starting to become less dependent on swotting and memorisation.Alice_Aforethought said:Incidentally, re A Levels. If passes are up and the gap between boys' and girls' achievement is narrowing, that is a pretty unambiguous signal that the exams are getting easier, IMO.
boys scores increasing relatively would tend to suggest a swing away from more coursework.Alice_Aforethought said:
Surpassed within certain grade ranges I think. More A*As, but weaker elsewhere (on a quick scan).Mortimer said:Was it a narrowing of the gap? Thought it was boys' achievement surpassed girls'?
Possibly, yes; how do you envisage that would work? AIUI, the slide in relative performance arose from the introduction of more modules and continuous assessment. These mean that grades are based in some measure on (possibly) assisted and (certainly) time-unlimited work, as opposed to output under controlled conditions of comparison (which used to favour boys). Achieving an improvement in boys' grades under the current structure would entail either a complex reformulation of the course and the marking systems, or alternatively, you could just give boys more generous grades.PClipp said:Or that they are starting to become less dependent on swotting and memorisation.
edit: I had totally cocked up the quote formatting
from the Guardian live blog:
"After years’ of improving attainment by girls, early indications suggest boys seem finally to be starting to claw their way back and one of the key factors could be the reintroduction of end-of-year exams as part of the A-level reforms.
Traditionally end of course exams have been regarded as favourable to boys. When modular qualifications were introduced in 2002, girls’ performance began to climb - a trend which has continued.
Ahead of results day, the speculation has been that with the reintroduction of end-of-course exams, that could be reversed and the performance of boys may start to improve. And so they have.
This year, for the first time in at least seven years, boys across the UK in all subjects outperformed girls in achieving A-A* grades, gaining 26.6% A and A*, compared with 26.1% for girls. Last year 25.7% of boys were awarded A and A*s – 0.3 points below girls."
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Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…0 -
Lovely cut from Cook there - this is 20/20 stuff!0
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Cripes ! - is the pink ball making Cook think he's been selected for a limited overs game ?0
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The jury for Trump's impeachment will be the senate, so no empanelling problems there.Nigelb said:Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…0 -
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Trump is unlikely to come to trial until after he has left office, IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
The jury for Trump's impeachment will be the senate, so no empanelling problems there.Nigelb said:Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…
(though I don't think all that many in the Senate would say anything different.)
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I shall be interested to see Dr Ydoethur’s informed take on at least the history results.BannedInParis said:A-level results
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/charts/embed/aug/2017-08-17T07:16:41/embed.html
we get very fussed over really small changes.0 -
I hope he gets a Mexican heritage judge.Nigelb said:
Trump is unlikely to come to trial until after he has left office, IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
The jury for Trump's impeachment will be the senate, so no empanelling problems there.Nigelb said:Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…
(though I don't think all that many in the Senate would say anything different.)
That would be fun.0 -
Politically, the SNP's voters would not like the SNP refusing to vote against a vote of no confidence against a Tory government. That would make them lose votes to the Lib Dems and Labour to an even larger degree at the 2020 election0
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And if it's a Republican president, he will probably pardon Trump anywayNigelb said:
Trump is unlikely to come to trial until after he has left office, IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
The jury for Trump's impeachment will be the senate, so no empanelling problems there.Nigelb said:Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…
(though I don't think all that many in the Senate would say anything different.)0 -
Despite the risk to their MPs, no way would the SNP keep the Tories in office.619 said:Politically, the SNP's voters would not like the SNP refusing to vote against a vote of no confidence against a Tory government. That would make them lose votes to the Lib Dems and Labour to an even larger degree at the 2020 election
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That would hardly single it out as something special.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB is going through a fallow period, in terms of betting opportunities, a general election would change all that.Beverley_C said:
Why? What difference would it make?MikeSmithson said:
I wouldJosiasJessop said:Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election.
I'm hoping the SNP are so offended by this thread they say it is casus belli for a second Indyref.0 -
At least Oxford has some history to destroy.TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Trump, you can't change history.
I blame the University of Oxford for all this nonsense and their acquiescence to the Rhodes must fall nonsense.0 -
Up against the wall!TheScreamingEagles said:
I hope he gets a Mexican heritage judge.Nigelb said:
Trump is unlikely to come to trial until after he has left office, IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
The jury for Trump's impeachment will be the senate, so no empanelling problems there.Nigelb said:Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…
(though I don't think all that many in the Senate would say anything different.)
That would be fun.0 -
Tories might already be the biggest party in Scotland if it weren't for Cameron and Osborne wasting a decade when they decided the answer was gerrymandering not campaigning. It turns out the Scots and Welsh voters will put their X in the blue box if given reason to, but the posh boys wrote them off as Labour rotten boroughs to be removed by boundary changes.TheScreamingEagles said:
We wouldn't be far off from the Tories being from the largest party in Scotland.felix said:Interesting that swings under 3% would give 5 more Tories , 7 more Labour and 1 more LD
We're going to need a bigger klaxon.0 -
Just sat down, saw Stoneman face one ball and get bowled. On the evidence, I prefer him to Jennings.0
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You can change the present - and what does Trump know of history anyway ?TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Trump, you can't change history.
I blame the University of Oxford for all this nonsense and their acquiescence to the Rhodes must fall nonsense.
There are reasoned arguments on both sides:
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/16/16152088/nazi-swastikas-germany-charlottesville
The president is not contributing to them.0 -
Yep - See the SNP's fortunes 1979 - 2007 or so...foxinsoxuk said:
Despite the risk to their MPs, no way would the SNP keep the Tories in office.619 said:Politically, the SNP's voters would not like the SNP refusing to vote against a vote of no confidence against a Tory government. That would make them lose votes to the Lib Dems and Labour to an even larger degree at the 2020 election
Long time in the Scottish political wilderness for supporting the Tories. Unless you ARE the Tories.0 -
off topic
it is a dreadful shame that, five years after the Olympics, participation in sport hasn't improved at all.0 -
Indeed. Stoneman at least looked as if he has batted at no. 2 before.....Tissue_Price said:Just sat down, saw Stoneman face one ball and get bowled. On the evidence, I prefer him to Jennings.
It was a tremendous ball. Would even have got me out....!0 -
From a betting or party-political perspective? (or both, of course).MikeSmithson said:
I wouldJosiasJessop said:Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election.
I can see how another election will mean more betting markets and opportunities. I doubt an election this year would really help the Lib Dems much.0 -
Agree it could do, though as I said to PClipp, if you wanted to improve boys' grades it's easier to change nothing and just give them better grades than a girl would have got.tlg86 said:
Doesn't it suggest that less emphasis is being placed on coursework?Alice_Aforethought said:Incidentally, re A Levels. If passes are up and the gap between boys' and girls' achievement is narrowing, that is a pretty unambiguous signal that the exams are getting easier, IMO.
The reason I say the exams are getting easier is because of a thought experiment I came across. I forget where. But it went like this.
If you have two groups of candidates for an exam of patently different ability - 6-year-olds in one and 25-year-old PhDs in the other, say - then their scores will differ in most instances. But they will be identical if either the exam is very easy, or if it is very hard. An easy exam might be
1. Write your first name (100 marks).
Everyone in each group will score 100% on such a paper, and there will be no difference between the groups' relative performance.
The hard exam looks like this:
1. If you take a positive integer, and then divide by 2 if it is even, or multiply by 3 and add 1 if it is odd, then repeat this process with the resulting number, eventually you will end up with the number 1.
Prove that there is no positive integer of which this is untrue.
The latter (the Collatz Conjecture) is currently insoluble (nobody's found such an integer but nobody has shown there can't be one). Everyone in each group will score 0% on such a paper, and there will be no difference between the groups' relative performance.
So if the exam is either very easy or very hard, the two groups' performance will look the same. Thus, as it approaches being very easy or very hard from somewhere in between, their disparate performances will converge.
Where we see converging exam performance between boys and girls, therefore, we ideally need some other piece of preferably quantitative evidence that points to whether it's converging because the exam has become easier, or because it's become harder, either of which would produce convergence. If the overall pass rate in the exam has risen, this strongly suggests the exam has got easier. If it has fallen then the scores are converging upon everyone failing, so it has got harder.
It is of course possible that scores have improved because everyone has genuinely become more intelligent, or worsened because everyone has become more stupid. Proving that is a bit circular, though.0 -
“Can’t repeat the past?” he cried incredulously. “Why of course you can!”TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Trump, you can't change history.
I blame the University of Oxford for all this nonsense and their acquiescence to the Rhodes must fall nonsense.
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And utterly predictable. In fact, I believe I said so on here. The Olympics were a massively expensive and wasteful way to make the country feel good about itself for two weeks.TOPPING said:off topic
it is a dreadful shame that, five years after the Olympics, participation in sport hasn't improved at all.
The only positive thing about it was the fact that Paris didn't get it ...
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Sadly the debate has become so polarised, with large groups of violent idiots on both sides, that it's going to be a long and difficult road forward.TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Trump, you can't change history.
I blame the University of Oxford for all this nonsense and their acquiescence to the Rhodes must fall nonsense.
Trump is right on this one, which seems a weird thing to say. Pulling down statues serves no purpose except as a vehicle for one group of morons to provoke the other group of morons.0 -
We might get an Australian election soon as the government is teetering over a bizarre dual nationality scandal. Backing an ALP win will be free money.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB is going through a fallow period, in terms of betting opportunities, a general election would change all that.Beverley_C said:
Why? What difference would it make?MikeSmithson said:
I wouldJosiasJessop said:Thirst.
I'm far from convinced anyone would want another election.
I'm hoping the SNP are so offended by this thread they say it is casus belli for a second Indyref.0 -
A fair trial and shot!foxinsoxuk said:
Up against the wall!TheScreamingEagles said:
I hope he gets a Mexican heritage judge.Nigelb said:
Trump is unlikely to come to trial until after he has left office, IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
The jury for Trump's impeachment will be the senate, so no empanelling problems there.Nigelb said:Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…
(though I don't think all that many in the Senate would say anything different.)
That would be fun.0 -
Blimey, you have faith!Alice_Aforethought said:An easy exam might be
1. Write your first name (100 marks).
Everyone in each group will score 100% on such a paper
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Yes indeed he is. Still at least he's good for a few comedy u-turns...bigjohnowls said:
What a Tosser Trump isTheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/897478270442143744
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/897869174323728385
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Not with the quote above. The removal of statues is not an example of progress in this instance.bigjohnowls said:
What a Tosser Trump isTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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What about those SNP voters who lean Tory? time to get rid of the blinkers.619 said:Politically, the SNP's voters would not like the SNP refusing to vote against a vote of no confidence against a Tory government. That would make them lose votes to the Lib Dems and Labour to an even larger degree at the 2020 election
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The former confederate states continue to need a reckoning with their past. If that is to be had by removing statues, so be it. There's a lot to be said for moving them to a statue park, as happened in some places in eastern Europe after the fall of Communism.
Alternatively, southern states should start erecting statues that are inclusive for those for whom the confederacy was nothing to be celebrated. The fact that doesn't seem to be happening much suggests that a few need to be removed first before the reckoning can take place.0 -
Back on topic, the SNP could never survive being the party that kept the tories in power office...
They would have to support a no confidence vote, although I bet they hope there isn't one for a while yet - long enough at least for the tories to damage their standing in Scotland.0 -
The question of jury prejudice should be taken more seriously here. Some decisions in emotive cases seem to be based less on evidence (or at least that fraction of it reported in the papers) and more on the basis of no smoke without fire. Of course, nearly every miscarriage of justice took place in front of a jury.Nigelb said:Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…0 -
On topic, well quite. The SNP are almost certainly reliable enemies of the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. The prospect of an early general election that the Conservatives are opposed to is remote for so long as the SNP look set to lose further seats at one.0
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Again - you're assuming no-one in Scotland wants to vote Tory - which is bizarre on a site like this. Many SNP voters were ex-Tories and numbers have already flooded back to the blue camp. The Tories would struggle to be the first party in Scotland but the last GE and assembly election are testimony to the fact that the brand is alive and kicking. Ask Salmond.Benpointer said:Back on topic, the SNP could never survive being the party that kept the tories in power office...
They would have to support a no confidence vote, although I bet they hope there isn't one for a while yet - long enough at least for the tories to damage their standing in Scotland.0 -
Demonstrably untrue:Sandpit said:
Sadly the debate has become so polarised, with large groups of violent idiots on both sides, that it's going to be a long and difficult road forward.TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Trump, you can't change history.
I blame the University of Oxford for all this nonsense and their acquiescence to the Rhodes must fall nonsense.
Trump is right on this one, which seems a weird thing to say. Pulling down statues serves no purpose except as a vehicle for one group of morons to provoke the other group of morons.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/16/us/baltimore-confederate-statues.html0 -
The party may be - but many of their voters take a different view about the merits of the alternatives.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, well quite. The SNP are almost certainly reliable enemies of the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. The prospect of an early general election that the Conservatives are opposed to is remote for so long as the SNP look set to lose further seats at one.
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Although if a state AG preferred charges, e.g. Schneiderman in NYS where the Trump campaign was based, the President would have no pardon power in such a case.619 said:
And if it's a Republican president, he will probably pardon Trump anywayNigelb said:
Trump is unlikely to come to trial until after he has left office, IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
The jury for Trump's impeachment will be the senate, so no empanelling problems there.Nigelb said:Jury selection, US style (which makes me wonder how they might ever manage to empanel one for Trump)...
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/08/16/jurors_said_they_couldn_t_fairly_judge_martin_shkreli_in_court_because_he.html
“The question is, have you heard anything that would affect your ability to decide this case with an open mind. Can you do that?” the judge asked the prospective juror. “I don’t think I can,” the juror replied, “because he kind of looks like a dick.”…
(though I don't think all that many in the Senate would say anything different.)0 -
9 has a long old sequence to 1! (28 I make it)Alice_Aforethought said:
Agree it could do, though as I said to PClipp, if you wanted to improve boys' grades it's easier to change nothing and just give them better grades than a girl would have got.tlg86 said:
Doesn't it suggest that less emphasis is being placed on coursework?Alice_Aforethought said:Incidentally, re A Levels. If passes are up and the gap between boys' and girls' achievement is narrowing, that is a pretty unambiguous signal that the exams are getting easier, IMO.
The reason I say the exams are getting easier is because of a thought experiment I came across. I forget where. But it went like this.
If you have two groups of candidates for an exam of patently different ability - 6-year-olds in one and 25-year-old PhDs in the other, say - then their scores will differ in most instances. But they will be identical if either the exam is very easy, or if it is very hard. An easy exam might be
1. Write your first name (100 marks).
Everyone in each group will score 100% on such a paper, and there will be no difference between the groups' relative performance.
The hard exam looks like this:
1. If you take a positive integer, and then divide by 2 if it is even, or multiply by 3 and add 1 if it is odd, then repeat this process with the resulting number, eventually you will end up with the number 1.
Prove that there is no positive integer of which this is untrue.
The latter (the Collatz Conjecture) is currently insoluble (nobody's found such an integer but nobody has shown there can't be one). Everyone in each group will score 0% on such a paper, and there will be no difference between the groups' relative performance.
So if the exam is either very easy or very hard, the two groups' performance will look the same. Thus, as it approaches being very easy or very hard from somewhere in between, their disparate performances will converge.
Where we see converging exam performance between boys and girls, therefore, we ideally need some other piece of preferably quantitative evidence that points to whether it's converging because the exam has become easier, or because it's become harder, either of which would produce convergence. If the overall pass rate in the exam has risen, this strongly suggests the exam has got easier. If it has fallen then the scores are converging upon everyone failing, so it has got harder.
It is of course possible that scores have improved because everyone has genuinely become more intelligent, or worsened because everyone has become more stupid. Proving that is a bit circular, though.0 -
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Mr. P, odd to think that was just over two years ago. Feels like another age.0
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Not a lot of upside for the Conservatives in that list. They are likely to lose as many seats to Labour as they win off the SNP, as the Unionist tactical vote unwinds and Labour becomes more credible as winners of seats. 15 to 30 seats for Labour is entirely doable.0
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How does a city mayor deciding to take sides and work under cover of darkness with no public debate, demonstrably prove anything?Nigelb said:
Demonstrably untrue:Sandpit said:
Sadly the debate has become so polarised, with large groups of violent idiots on both sides, that it's going to be a long and difficult road forward.TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Trump, you can't change history.
I blame the University of Oxford for all this nonsense and their acquiescence to the Rhodes must fall nonsense.
Trump is right on this one, which seems a weird thing to say. Pulling down statues serves no purpose except as a vehicle for one group of morons to provoke the other group of morons.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/16/us/baltimore-confederate-statues.html0 -
Yes. Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the SNP all had leaders who were more likeable and competent than their current leaders.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, odd to think that was just over two years ago. Feels like another age.
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