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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Tory leadership races the assassin rarely becomes the replacement
There’s almost a story a day running on who’ll be TMay’s successor although she’s given no indication other than that she’s staying put at Number 10 and would probably like to remain to beyond Brexit and beyond.
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I knew them both and while I wouldn't describe them as 'dominant' I certainly concur that if asked 'who would make PM' I would have gone for Green. He made President of the Union while May 'only' got as far as Librarian.
Pity the posh boys passed him over for high office for weaker but more telegenic figures.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive
Firstly, NASA wanted backup parachutes. This added weight. Secondly, they've nixed the propulsive landings by saying they wanted the heat shield unbroken by rocket motors or landing legs - understandable after Challenger.
This left propulsive landings for just cargo Dragon 2's, and it would not be worth doing it for just that. This also nixed Red Dragon, which was to use that technology, and would have been useful to provide data for atmospheric re-entries of heavy bodies on Mars.
SpaceX wanted propulsive landings for many reasons: it's cheaper, it reduces reliance on the US government (the ships at sea), and it's more flexible. NASA didn't want it for all those reasons, and they're the paymaster.
In a day of generally bad news for SpaceX, Musk also cast some doubt on the likelihood of the Falcon Heavy's first flight succeeding.
While charisma isn't everything (the manifest unsuitability of Boris springs to mind), some will argue that its absence did Major no harm in 1990, But Major was in his 40s when he took over; Green will be 66 at the likely time of the next election.
There is also the question of his political competence and judgment, for which there isn't a huge amount of evidence in either direction. The impression I had up until now was ineffectualness, but It's possible he might surprise now he's in a position of real power and influence.
Green might do as a stopgap, but that is not what the Tories need. As someone to lead a recovery, he seems rather unlikely - though of course so do all the alternatives. He is at least in a position to be able to display prime ministerial qualities, which I think is the only chance of his actually getting the top job.
70/1 seems an OK dabble, but hardly a must have long shot.
Worth noting that it was not the Falklands that saved Maggie (despite this her vote share fell from 1979 to 83), it was the split opposition. While Foot was undermined by a strong SDP/Liberal challenge in votes, Corbyn is sitting pretty, with the equivalent centre party on life support. Cable is a poor choice for leader, but also I cannot see him gaining seats or votes off Labour. What effect he has will mostly be to take votes off the Tories.
Do the Tories choose a Brexiteer or a remain voter who now backs the 'will of the people' ? I am not convinced a Brexiteer such as DD, Boris or Fox would be good at unifying the Tories. There is no consensus about UK's ideal future relationship with the EU. I am not sure the Tories will have enough support in Parliament to stay in Government until March 2019. I think whoever becomes new Tory leader/PM by December 2017, will call an early election in Spring 2018.
* Thanks to Chris from Paris who is TOTY.
** Thanks to a swift reverse ferret courtesy of the exit poll. Even afterwards it was better than evens on NOM.
May has done precisely nothing.
Corbyn is now unchallengeable in Labour, and even I as a member of the LDs cannot vote for Cable. The Fox household of 3 all voted LD in June, but the others are now with Corbyn, and I may well join them too.
As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html
She is doomed, the only question is who next drinks from the poisoned chalice of Brexit. I cannot see a Remainer winning, it will be a true Brexit believer.
May has to make a speech that will be the most grovelling & humiliating apology in the world.
But, she is not the only one. Almost the whole of the PLP will be eating crow, as well.
There will be Crow Banquets at both the Labour and Tory Party conferences.
Many of us will delight in seeing politicians force down their unpalatable food in public.
However, my recollection, FWIW, is that until Maggie whipped up national enthusiasm for miltitary action to retake the Falklands a hung Parliament was expected when she finally limped to the polls.
it’s difficult now to remember the enthusiasm for a 'new kind of politics’ that Steel, Jenkins, Williams and Owen represented.
I don’t think Cable’s the best leader the LD’s could have, but at least he’s got a positive Press image, and some of the new LD MP’s could start making a splash when the silly season is over. It’s worth noting that in 2015 all their MP’s were seat holders; now, as well as returners like Cable himself ....... and the big turnover in votes 2010-17 in Twickenham is in itself noteworthy ...... there are several newcomers.
Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
"Jeremy Corbyn has vowed to slash the salaries of BBC stars such as Gary Lineker and Chris Evans, if Labour wins power." (The Independent)
Literally, a policy that will be supported by 65.64 million people minus 2 in the UK.
It's Hunt for me, although I do think he needs to move from Health first.
It was after 1987 that she got very cocky, which led to her downfall. Arguably the nascent EU was the catalyst, and the reaction to the poll tax the biggest trigger.
Although going back to Jonathon's comment, the current politician who's rubbish at reshuffles is Corbyn. Hes had several that have lasted ages, so you think he'd be good at them by now.
There is absolutely no comparison.
I don't think May is a coward, but unlike Thatcher she is paralysed by the prospect of hard decisions, and usually opts for the wrong solution when she finally gets round to it. And absolutely unlike Thatcher she is now the prisoner of her own cabinet and parliamentary party.
As for not expecting Thatcher to last, no one thought she would be turfed out before the election, but likely as a result of losing it. Absent the Falklands, it's quite possible (I wouldn't go as far as probable) that the SPD would not have been strangled at birth and a hung parliament resulted.
Just look at Pym, who replaced the sainted Norman, and was himself summarily dispatched in due course.
Until she went completely loopy, Thatcher was very shrewd at knowing when to dispatch opponents or perceived failures.
It’s quite right, too, that the FO was talking to the Argentinians about some sort of shared soveriegnty...... only scupperd when two MP's Peter Shore, Lab and Bernard Braine, Tory,got wind of it, and Galtieri decided on direct action.
Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.
It now seems her long period at the Home Office may have had less to do with her own skills, and more to do with Cameron's reluctance to reshuffle.
May has much more in common with Brown, someone who schemed for office for years, yet without a real purpose, who mismanaged their previous office, and was beset from the beginning with unrest from colleagues because of an authoritarian style. Both moved first against the people who had previously been their cabinet colleagues.
Although Rory or JM are acceptable too.
Which led to mountains of coal above ground, three ballots which rejected strike action and a strong performance by the Conservatives in mining areas in the 1983 general election.
The universities need happy customers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40663158
Ugly, so I hope they work on alternatives and use those later. Also, decreased peripheral vision may increase accidents, particularly on the first lap. On the plus side, strong and not enclosed, so if you're upside down and your car's on fire you should be ok.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-40654933
I'm not a halo fan either, incidentally.
As for the other epithets...
For the record, most Scottish politicians avoid going on Good Morning Scotland, unless they are desperate or well rehearsed.
I'm bored of people on here patting themselves on the back AFTER their bet has won without telling anybody beforehand. I've been a punter for 40 years, some on here it seems have never placed a losing bet, they're bullshitters.
You should be able to find a live stream of it.
She might surprise a few people.
Wish I'd backed Green at 70. I'm on at something like 30, but there we are.
Button was 71 for the 2009 title, you know. I may have mentioned this previously.
[Still annoyed at the Force India crash in Azerbaijan. Was otherwise on for a 201 winner].
Unfortunately the site I found that on has some links to sci-fi cosplay galleries. In the spirit of scientific research I will briefly be unavailable for further comment.
We must be the only two on here that have ever placed a losing bet. I'm sorry but I refuse to believe anybody on here made money at the GE. I reduced my losses by laying UKIP where I could but I don't remember a single poster predicting anything but a comfy tory win.
May faces a Labour party that polls at least as well as her own.
Readers of Mr Dancer's excellent blog will know that when I get the time I post my tips (and justifications) in advance and I also post my results. My F1 wins and losses are fully documented race by race.
They've already started a project for a film and canned it, so it's more likely to be a new series ... I hope!
Cameron and Osborne took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs, Mrs May and her team made a net seat loss, against Jeremy Corbyn. JEREMY CORBYN FFS!
Indeed, Mr. M's betting thoughts are another excellent reason to visit my enormo-haddock.blogspot.com blog. Well, that and the splendid graphs.
The real cause of the Bianchi accident was his own poor judgement in admittedly awful conditions, coupled with the poor judgement of Race Control in not red flagging the race, and the poor provision of recovery vehicles which should have had either barrier protection or should have been longer reach to recover from behind the barrier (as in many other locations).
David Benioff and DB Weiss, the creators of HBO’s Game of Thrones, are bringing a new series to the network that will offer an alternative take on the American civil war.
Confederate, depicting the events leading up to a third conflict between the north and south, will be written by the showrunners and take place in an alternative timeline in which the southern states have successfully seceded, “giving rise to a nation in which slavery remains legal and has evolved into a modern institution”.
A statement released by HBO read: “The story follows a broad swath of characters on both sides of the Mason-Dixon Demilitarized Zone – freedom fighters, slave hunters, politicians, abolitionists, journalists, the executives of a slave-holding conglomerate and the families of people in their thrall.”
Production on the new series will begin after the final season of Game of Thrones.
https://theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/jul/19/confederate-hbo-civil-war-drama-game-of-thrones-creators
For balance, I should add that I lost £4k on the 2015 GE. That was much more complicated, as well as more painful, but I could send you some spreadsheets on which the disaster was recorded.
PS I think OGH also won on the spreads. He's not a Holy Friar either, so ask him.
2017 tory votes 13.6
And you call me tedious!
Your childlike sycophancy is embarrassing mate, outside of your echo chamber Osborne is held in contempt.