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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chart that shows general election campaigns don’t matter (

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chart that shows general election campaigns don’t matter (usually)

2017 election saw the biggest swing DURING an election campaign ever – uncertainty is the new normal pic.twitter.com/VVTCADtY0T

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    First
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Second!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Bugger. The long reply (who could've expected it to be a catalogue of errors, and then a list) has vanished.

    Humbug!

    F1: great race today, writing post-race nonsense now.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited July 2017
    ...and what a cracking F1 race it was!

    If the British Grand Prix is this good whilst we're still under Article 50 then I can't wait to see how much better the post-Brexit races are.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,970

    Bugger. The long reply (who could've expected it to be a catalogue of errors, and then a list) has vanished.

    Humbug!

    F1: great race today, writing post-race nonsense now.

    Vanilla gremlin.

    Your comment is here

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1680681/#Comment_1680681
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, thanks :D

    Reposted:
    To be fair, who could've predicted the catalogue of mistakes and sheer stupidity of the Conservative campaign?

    Frightened core vote on an emotive subject with an ill-conceived policy? Check.
    Failed to scrutinise opposition policies? Check
    Build campaign against single figure whose popularity falls off a cliff? Check.
    Refuse to comment on strong suit (economy) because PM wants to throw Chancellor under a bus? Check.
    Campaign in safe opposition seats and lack marginals focus, leading to many narrow losses? Check.

    F1: great race today, writing post-race nonsense now.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    I've always been a soft leaver type and had Cameron's negotiation been a little better I could have seen myself voting to stay in. Since then, I've occasionally had days where I've woken up going "uh-oh, what have I done?" but by the end of the day steadied myself by remembering none of the fundamentals have changed - all the stuff that made me anti-EU, the erosion of sovereignty, the democratic deficit, the economic and social problems caused by free movement - are still there and will only get worse with ever closer union. So despite a year of debate my views remain pretty much unchanged. The only thing that has changed is my belief in the government's ability to negotiate an acceptable settlement - but that wasn't knowable in June last year.

    So has anyone's opinion actually changed?

    Genuinely interested, because I can see us ending up in second referendum territory before 2019. And we've effectively been campaigning on PB for over a year now. Feels to me like the more a political issue is discussed, the more entrenched people's views become.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 100, no.

    As you say, the fundamentals haven't changed. I also share your concern about getting a reasonable negotiation, but the alternative is ever more integration.

    Had we voted Remain, the hardcore EU-philes would've been trying to paint that as agreement to full steam ahead.

    I think the majority (soft either side) just want it settled.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,403
    Looking at the graph, the LibDems didn't do much of a job during the campaign either. The Farronite 451 turned off the voters.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    edited July 2017
    kyf_100 said:

    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    I've always been a soft leaver type and had Cameron's negotiation been a little better I could have seen myself voting to stay in. Since then, I've occasionally had days where I've woken up going "uh-oh, what have I done?" but by the end of the day steadied myself by remembering none of the fundamentals have changed - all the stuff that made me anti-EU, the erosion of sovereignty, the democratic deficit, the economic and social problems caused by free movement - are still there and will only get worse with ever closer union. So despite a year of debate my views remain pretty much unchanged. The only thing that has changed is my belief in the government's ability to negotiate an acceptable settlement - but that wasn't knowable in June last year.

    So has anyone's opinion actually changed?

    Genuinely interested, because I can see us ending up in second referendum territory before 2019. And we've effectively been campaigning on PB for over a year now. Feels to me like the more a political issue is discussed, the more entrenched people's views become.

    I was a remainer who could see that there was something in the arguments that you make for leaving. The problem has been that TMay has never made the slightest effort to reach out to people like me in order to forge some kind of consensus. That and the utter shambles the Government appears to be making of the negotiations has seen me become much more entrenched in my opposition to Brexit.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Afternoon all :)

    In response to Mr 100, I'd agree with much of Morris D's viewpoint. The fundamentals haven't changed though I doubt had we chosen to vote to REMAIN, Cameron and Osborne would have been able (even if they had been so willing) to endorse further integration.

    For me, the "second referendum" is becoming more important as May's Government tries frantically to disavow or share ownership of or "the blame" for the actual negotiations themselves.

    Unlike many, I can't have the rejection of any Treaty as a signal for wanting continued EU membership. As we saw with Maastricht, the rules can be bent if need be and if the treaty agreed by the May Government isn't to the satisfaction of the British people, they (or preferably someone else) will have to go back and negotiate something we can accept.

    There may be no scope for this or there may be.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kyf_100 said:

    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    I've always been a soft leaver type and had Cameron's negotiation been a little better I could have seen myself voting to stay in. Since then, I've occasionally had days where I've woken up going "uh-oh, what have I done?" but by the end of the day steadied myself by remembering none of the fundamentals have changed - all the stuff that made me anti-EU, the erosion of sovereignty, the democratic deficit, the economic and social problems caused by free movement - are still there and will only get worse with ever closer union. So despite a year of debate my views remain pretty much unchanged. The only thing that has changed is my belief in the government's ability to negotiate an acceptable settlement - but that wasn't knowable in June last year.

    So has anyone's opinion actually changed?

    Genuinely interested, because I can see us ending up in second referendum territory before 2019. And we've effectively been campaigning on PB for over a year now. Feels to me like the more a political issue is discussed, the more entrenched people's views become.

    I was a *very* soft remain voter, pleasantly surprised by the result, and now so fed up with the dysfunctional incompetence and malevolence of everyone involved on all sides that I would probably be happier if we'd remained, and signed up to Schengen and the euro while we were at it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: post-race ramble replete with spoilers is now up:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/united-kingdom-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Mid-season review likely up next week. There might even be some splendid graphs to admire.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    A fittingly poor final to wrap up a poor Wimbledon 2017.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited July 2017
    kyf_100 said:

    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    Hmmm... I suppose it depends when you start the clock from.

    I was, for years, a "lukewarm Leaver". Right up to the referendum itself I was torn between Leave or Remain. As the big day approached I looked at the issues and how difficult it was going to be to pick everything apart and the obvious bluster from Boris, Gove & Co. convinced me that they were utterly clueless and flying by the seat of their pants. When I stood in the booth with the voting slip in front of me I reluctantly ticked "Remain".

    Looking at what has happened since, I was absolutely correct about Boris, Gove and Fox being useless. I have been astounded by the complete inability of the govt to get its act together and take a concrete negotiating stance with definite objectives. Instead those of them that are doing anything just womble along in a fantasy world spouting platitudes.

    We are Brexiting. We are going because our own politicians are too amateur to actually do their jobs and they will bumble along spouting platitudes until March 2019 and then we will be WTO'd.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    Mr. 100, no.

    As you say, the fundamentals haven't changed. I also share your concern about getting a reasonable negotiation, but the alternative is ever more integration.

    Had we voted Remain, the hardcore EU-philes would've been trying to paint that as agreement to full steam ahead.

    I think the majority (soft either side) just want it settled.

    Thanks to all who replied, confirms my suspicions that most people's opinions haven't really changed (or else they've become more entrenched).

    The central issue seems to be competence - and the current lot are looking woefully incompetent. FWIW, I would have to think long and hard before casting my vote in any theoretical second referendum, even though my ideological position hasn't changed.

    TMay's failure to reach out to moderates like @ThomasNashe looks like an enormous tactical error now. And I can't help but feel that once you lose your reputation for competence it's all over in a GE. I think the unusually large swing in June could well be down to TMay starting the campaign with an air of competence and becoming increasingly exposed during it. From competence to calamity in just six weeks.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Congrats to Roger Federer! OMG!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Any PBers going to next Wednesday's GE post mortem? GE 2017 post mortem next Wed https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-uk-general-election-of-2017-the-campaigns-media-and-polls-tickets-35931849128
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Norm said:

    A fittingly poor final to wrap up a poor Wimbledon 2017.

    Hey, still got the mixed doubles to look forward to!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    kyf_100 said:

    Mr. 100, no.

    As you say, the fundamentals haven't changed. I also share your concern about getting a reasonable negotiation, but the alternative is ever more integration.

    Had we voted Remain, the hardcore EU-philes would've been trying to paint that as agreement to full steam ahead.

    I think the majority (soft either side) just want it settled.

    Thanks to all who replied, confirms my suspicions that most people's opinions haven't really changed (or else they've become more entrenched).

    The central issue seems to be competence - and the current lot are looking woefully incompetent. FWIW, I would have to think long and hard before casting my vote in any theoretical second referendum, even though my ideological position hasn't changed.

    TMay's failure to reach out to moderates like @ThomasNashe looks like an enormous tactical error now. And I can't help but feel that once you lose your reputation for competence it's all over in a GE. I think the unusually large swing in June could well be down to TMay starting the campaign with an air of competence and becoming increasingly exposed during it. From competence to calamity in just six weeks.
    Her limitations became painfully clear during the campaign.

    That said, I was still expecting a 1979-type result, up until 10 pm on polling day.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 100, I agree. It wasn't a one-way error, though. By trying, or seeming to try, to frustrate the result off the bat rather than trying to channel it towards a genuine departure but emphasising close ties where possible, some hardcore EU-philes have shot themselves in the foot.

    With competence (ahem) the new Parliament is an opportunity for consensus, but that requires both sides.

    Mr. Norm, I haven't watched much. Sounds like I didn't miss much either.

    Unlike the gripping British Grand Prix.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,970
    Dadge said:

    Any PBers going to next Wednesday's GE post mortem? GE 2017 post mortem next Wed https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-uk-general-election-of-2017-the-campaigns-media-and-polls-tickets-35931849128

    Mike and Keiran will be on the panel.

    I might be making an appearance.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    kyf 100

    I was a diffident remainer and have to confess that I underestimated the scale of the national disaster likely to ensue from Leaving, quite possibly because I didn't really think we'd be daft enough to vote that way. I guess I'm one of those Remainers guilty of not campaigning seriously enough and leaving the floor to the other side, so mea culpa indeed.

    In the unlikely event of a second referendum I'd be one of the first to cast their ballot in favour of staying in the EU. My view remains however that having made the wrong decision, we should stick with it and try to make the best of it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,583

    F1: post-race ramble replete with spoilers is now up:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/united-kingdom-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Mid-season review likely up next week. There might even be some splendid graphs to admire.

    A good writeup, Mr.D.
    I have to disagree about the championship, however. Hamilton must now be the strong favourite. Barring accidents, Hungary should be a walk in the park for Mercedes, and they'll go into the mid season break ahead on both points and development.

    It's notable that they happily toook the precautionary gearbox penalty for Bottas, and he still finished seocnd. Ferrari are more likely than Mercedes to encounter engine penalties later in the season, and now Merc are on top of their setup problems, they clearly have a faster car.
    It's not a foregone conclusion, but I'm confident enough to have money on them for both the drivers and constructors titles.
    ...And did OK this weekend, as I confidently predicted the Hamilton full house.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    That would be.... amusing :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    kyf_100 said:

    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    Hmmm... I suppose it depends when you start the clock from.

    I was, for years, a "lukewarm Leaver". Right up to the referendum itself I was torn between Leave or Remain. As the big day approached I looked at the issues and how difficult it was going to be to pick everything apart and the obvious bluster from Boris, Gove & Co. convinced me that they were utterly clueless and flying by the seat of their pants. When I stood in the booth with the voting slip in front of me I reluctantly ticked "Remain".

    Looking at what has happened since, I was absolutely correct about Boris, Gove and Fox being useless. I have been astounded by the complete inability of the govt to get its act together and take a concrete negotiating stance with definite objectives. Instead those of them that are doing anything just womble along in a fantasy world spouting platitudes.

    We are Brexiting. We are going because our own politicians are too amateur to actually do their jobs and they will bumble along spouting platitudes until March 2019 and then we will be WTO'd.
    I disagree. By Autumn 2018, the upcoming situation will be so calamitous that people will be pining to stay in and the only way that will be possible is by Parliament voting for a second referendum. Don't fall for this absolute nonsense that Corbyn & co. are Brexiters. Neither are Momentum.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    kyf 100

    I was a diffident remainer and have to confess that I underestimated the scale of the national disaster likely to ensue from Leaving, quite possibly because I didn't really think we'd be daft enough to vote that way. I guess I'm one of those Remainers guilty of not campaigning seriously enough and leaving the floor to the other side, so mea culpa indeed.

    In the unlikely event of a second referendum I'd be one of the first to cast their ballot in favour of staying in the EU. My view remains however that having made the wrong decision, we should stick with it and try to make the best of it.

    I am still confused about this supposed national disaster. We have seen no signs of it at all yet - unsurprising given we have not yet left - and there is absolutely no evidence on which to base a view that it will be a disaster except people's pre-conceived bias.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, thanks.

    I'm not saying Bottas should be other than third favourite, but 17 is too long, I think. Already put a little on at those odds and not betting any more (backed/tipped each way [pays out for top 3] at 26 pre-season too).

    Anyway, we shall see. A nice part of betting is that there's no flim-flam discussion, stuff comes off, or it doesn't.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Mr. 100, I agree. It wasn't a one-way error, though. By trying, or seeming to try, to frustrate the result off the bat rather than trying to channel it towards a genuine departure but emphasising close ties where possible, some hardcore EU-philes have shot themselves in the foot.

    With competence (ahem) the new Parliament is an opportunity for consensus, but that requires both sides.

    Mr. Norm, I haven't watched much. Sounds like I didn't miss much either.

    Unlike the gripping British Grand Prix.

    I have to agree Morris, F1 today was far better value for ticket holders. OK Federer made history but the tournament has been wracked by one sided matches and injuries. The one classic match this year Nadal v Muller resulted in Nadal being knocked out which ended the possibility of two great champions battling it out in the final.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    TSE :lol:
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    surbiton said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    Hmmm... I suppose it depends when you start the clock from.

    I was, for years, a "lukewarm Leaver". Right up to the referendum itself I was torn between Leave or Remain. As the big day approached I looked at the issues and how difficult it was going to be to pick everything apart and the obvious bluster from Boris, Gove & Co. convinced me that they were utterly clueless and flying by the seat of their pants. When I stood in the booth with the voting slip in front of me I reluctantly ticked "Remain".

    Looking at what has happened since, I was absolutely correct about Boris, Gove and Fox being useless. I have been astounded by the complete inability of the govt to get its act together and take a concrete negotiating stance with definite objectives. Instead those of them that are doing anything just womble along in a fantasy world spouting platitudes.

    We are Brexiting. We are going because our own politicians are too amateur to actually do their jobs and they will bumble along spouting platitudes until March 2019 and then we will be WTO'd.
    I disagree. By Autumn 2018, the upcoming situation will be so calamitous that people will be pining to stay in and the only way that will be possible is by Parliament voting for a second referendum. Don't fall for this absolute nonsense that Corbyn & co. are Brexiters. Neither are Momentum.
    We have it on good authority here that Corbyn is a diffident Remainer, who doesn't want to oppose the referendum result.

    It's more difficult to guage Momentum's view, but it is essentially a youth movement so on the basis that the young were generally pro-remain, I'd guess Momentum would be so too. But it's only a guess.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    TSE in drag? :open_mouth:
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I disagree with the polls shown above. It might be great as a writing piece but Labour was never at 25% and neither were the Tories at 50%. The Tories lead , at best, was 10-12%.

    The pollsters made an Horlicks out of their samples [ which incidentally were not that wrong ]. It is possible that if the polls had been correct, May may not have called the election after all.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2017

    surbiton said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    Hmmm... I suppose it depends when you start the clock from.

    I was, for years, a "lukewarm Leaver". Right up to the referendum itself I was torn between Leave or Remain. As the big day approached I looked at the issues and how difficult it was going to be to pick everything apart and the obvious bluster from Boris, Gove & Co. convinced me that they were utterly clueless and flying by the seat of their pants. When I stood in the booth with the voting slip in front of me I reluctantly ticked "Remain".

    Looking at what has happened since, I was absolutely correct about Boris, Gove and Fox being useless. I have been astounded by the complete inability of the govt to get its act together and take a concrete negotiating stance with definite objectives. Instead those of them that are doing anything just womble along in a fantasy world spouting platitudes.

    We are Brexiting. We are going because our own politicians are too amateur to actually do their jobs and they will bumble along spouting platitudes until March 2019 and then we will be WTO'd.
    I disagree. By Autumn 2018, the upcoming situation will be so calamitous that people will be pining to stay in and the only way that will be possible is by Parliament voting for a second referendum. Don't fall for this absolute nonsense that Corbyn & co. are Brexiters. Neither are Momentum.
    We have it on good authority here that Corbyn is a diffident Remainer, who doesn't want to oppose the referendum result.

    It's more difficult to guage Momentum's view, but it is essentially a youth movement so on the basis that the young were generally pro-remain, I'd guess Momentum would be so too. But it's only a guess.
    No Labour MP will vote against a second referendum apart for nutters like Hoey, Field,Mann etc.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    TSE in drag? :open_mouth:
    Theresa May could do the job. Wooden acting is acceptable and some people think she is from a different planet.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    TSE in drag? :open_mouth:
    Theresa May could do the job. Wooden acting is acceptable and some people think she is from a different planet.
    The GE produced a script that Doctor Who writers would have seen as being too fantastic. "Nah, no-one'll believe it," they would have said as they threw it into the bin.

    Then again, Doctor Who scripts have been fairly awful for some years; the occasional gem swamped by stuff that wouldn't get accepted by Asimov's.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    surbiton said:

    I disagree with the polls shown above. It might be great as a writing piece but Labour was never at 25% and neither were the Tories at 50%. The Tories lead , at best, was 10-12%.

    The pollsters made an Horlicks out of their samples [ which incidentally were not that wrong ]. It is possible that if the polls had been correct, May may not have called the election after all.

    Any poll is by definition artificial and responses before the Election was called would have reflected the fact that Mrs May had repeatedly emphasised that there would be no election before the date pencilled in by the FTPA. The volte face would itself have been a factor influencing voter opinion, but the biggest imponderable is the difference between a hypothetical GE and a real one.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    surbiton said:

    I disagree. By Autumn 2018, the upcoming situation will be so calamitous that people will be pining to stay in and the only way that will be possible is by Parliament voting for a second referendum.

    They can clammer all they like, the current crop of politicians will just tell us that they have to respect the result and will then do nothing.

    The other alternative is another leadership battle amongst the Tories as the current infighting becomes civil war and then a failure on a no confidence motion.

    In short we will be continuing to look inwards whilst the clock ticks down to March 2019.

    surbiton said:

    Don't fall for this absolute nonsense that Corbyn & co. are Brexiters. Neither are Momentum.

    I do not know what to think about Corbyn, I certainly do not trust him. However, if a General Election was called I would probably vote Labour just to get the current crop of fools out of government because they really do not deserve to be there IMO. I regard our current government as a collection of incompetent, self-indulgent fools.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jessop, must agree. Stopped watching New Who a few episodes into Capaldi's time (shame, I think he's probably quite a good grumpy Doctor).
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    surbiton said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    Hmmm... I suppose it depends when you start the clock from.

    I was, for years, a "lukewarm Leaver". Right up to the referendum itself I was torn between Leave or Remain. As the big day approached I looked at the issues and how difficult it was going to be to pick everything apart and the obvious bluster from Boris, Gove & Co. convinced me that they were utterly clueless and flying by the seat of their pants. When I stood in the booth with the voting slip in front of me I reluctantly ticked "Remain".

    Looking at what has happened since, I was absolutely correct about Boris, Gove and Fox being useless. I have been astounded by the complete inability of the govt to get its act together and take a concrete negotiating stance with definite objectives. Instead those of them that are doing anything just womble along in a fantasy world spouting platitudes.

    We are Brexiting. We are going because our own politicians are too amateur to actually do their jobs and they will bumble along spouting platitudes until March 2019 and then we will be WTO'd.
    I disagree. By Autumn 2018, the upcoming situation will be so calamitous that people will be pining to stay in and the only way that will be possible is by Parliament voting for a second referendum. Don't fall for this absolute nonsense that Corbyn & co. are Brexiters. Neither are Momentum.
    We have it on good authority here that Corbyn is a diffident Remainer, who doesn't want to oppose the referendum result.
    If Corbyn wants to be PM then he has to lead. That means making a choice, picking a policy direction and charting a course to its completion, not sitting on the sidelines mumbling.

    It's more difficult to guage Momentum's view, but it is essentially a youth movement so on the basis that the young were generally pro-remain, I'd guess Momentum would be so too. But it's only a guess.

    Funny, I always regarded Momentum as a religious movement. Their leader's initials are JC after all.... :D:D
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527

    Mr. Jessop, must agree. Stopped watching New Who a few episodes into Capaldi's time (shame, I think he's probably quite a good grumpy Doctor).

    The acting in this series was good; the storylines mostly meh (with one or two exceptions). It becomes a case of whether it's worth wading through the dross to find the gems.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    TSE in drag? :open_mouth:
    You were right!!! (Joking of course. TSE is far more attractive)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    TSE in drag? :open_mouth:
    Theresa May could do the job. Wooden acting is acceptable and some people think she is from a different planet.
    The GE produced a script that Doctor Who writers would have seen as being too fantastic. "Nah, no-one'll believe it," they would have said as they threw it into the bin.

    Then again, Doctor Who scripts have been fairly awful for some years; the occasional gem swamped by stuff that wouldn't get accepted by Asimov's.
    Asimov does not accept anything. He has been dead for 30ish years.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    Well, if you want a job done properly.... :D
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    TSE in drag? :open_mouth:
    Theresa May could do the job. Wooden acting is acceptable and some people think she is from a different planet.
    The GE produced a script that Doctor Who writers would have seen as being too fantastic. "Nah, no-one'll believe it," they would have said as they threw it into the bin.

    Then again, Doctor Who scripts have been fairly awful for some years; the occasional gem swamped by stuff that wouldn't get accepted by Asimov's.
    Asimov does not accept anything. He has been dead for 30ish years.
    Asimov's is a science fiction magazine.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mrs C, make Aurelian emperor?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited July 2017

    Mr. Jessop, must agree. Stopped watching New Who a few episodes into Capaldi's time (shame, I think he's probably quite a good grumpy Doctor).

    The only one I have seen was a batshit crazy exposition of the theory that everyone in early C19 London was black and we are too prejudiced to recognize this. Also, Capaldi isn't really Capaldi if he doesn't say f*cking every second sentence.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    Well, if you want a job done properly.... :D
    Jodie Whittaker or TSE in drag?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    felix said:

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
    TBH - unless they actually start doing their jobs instead of manoeuvring for PM then they will be annihilated next time out.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited July 2017
    Haven't watched them for years, just don't do it for me and I love Sci-fi. Devour it in book, film, podcast, tv, video games etc.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
    TBH - unless they actually start doing their jobs instead of manoeuvring for PM then they will be annihilated next time out.
    Maybe you should start looking at the polls compared to the narrative in your head.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    Well, if you want a job done properly.... :D
    Jodie Whittaker or TSE in drag?
    Jodie Whittaker or course. TSE in drag is still TSE and would probably just use the Tardis to post anti Mrs May threads in large glowing letters in the sky. :)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    felix said:

    felix said:

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
    TBH - unless they actually start doing their jobs instead of manoeuvring for PM then they will be annihilated next time out.
    Maybe you should start looking at the polls compared to the narrative in your head.
    I prefer to go by history. Divided parties or in-fighting parties are usually rewarded by being booted out of office.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Richard: your post to me on the previous thread deserves a serious answer. Unfortunately, I just returned from a pub lunch and will give your question the attention it deserves later.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, make Aurelian emperor?

    I thought he had been dead for 2,000 years. Having said that, we appear to have "The Mummy" in charge at the moment :)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    Well, if you want a job done properly.... :D
    Jodie Whittaker or TSE in drag?
    Jodie Whittaker or course. TSE in drag is still TSE and would probably just use the Tardis to post anti Mrs May threads in large glowing letters in the sky. :)
    I suspect he would use it to go back in time and write threads about how awful she would be if she ever became PM just so he could point to them afterwards to prove how perceptive he was.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    edited July 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. Jessop, must agree. Stopped watching New Who a few episodes into Capaldi's time (shame, I think he's probably quite a good grumpy Doctor).

    The only one I have seen was a batshit crazy exposition of the theory that everyone in early C19 London was black and we are too prejudiced to recognize this. Also, Capaldi isn't really Capaldi if he doesn't say f*cking every second sentence.
    Utterly disagree. I've never really watched the Thick of It, but I knew him from the superb Local Hero. A very different character from Malcolm Tucker. ;)

    Edit: and he as so young!
    http://www.aveleyman.com/Gallery/ActorsC/2635-11333.jpg
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    TSE in drag? :open_mouth:
    Theresa May could do the job. Wooden acting is acceptable and some people think she is from a different planet.
    The GE produced a script that Doctor Who writers would have seen as being too fantastic. "Nah, no-one'll believe it," they would have said as they threw it into the bin.

    Then again, Doctor Who scripts have been fairly awful for some years; the occasional gem swamped by stuff that wouldn't get accepted by Asimov's.
    Asimov does not accept anything. He has been dead for 30ish years.
    Asimov's is a science fiction magazine.
    Fair enough.

    I still have a few Asimov books on my bookshelf. I suspect they will get donated to someone shortly.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard: your post to me on the previous thread deserves a serious answer. Unfortunately, I just returned from a pub lunch and will give your question the attention it deserves later.

    Ta old chap. I was just surprised by what appeared to be a big change in view. My immediate thought is I have misunderstood one of your positions but I can't really reconcile either.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    kyf_100 said:

    Vaguely relevant question out of personal interest:

    Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?

    I've always been a soft leaver type and had Cameron's negotiation been a little better I could have seen myself voting to stay in. Since then, I've occasionally had days where I've woken up going "uh-oh, what have I done?" but by the end of the day steadied myself by remembering none of the fundamentals have changed - all the stuff that made me anti-EU, the erosion of sovereignty, the democratic deficit, the economic and social problems caused by free movement - are still there and will only get worse with ever closer union. So despite a year of debate my views remain pretty much unchanged. The only thing that has changed is my belief in the government's ability to negotiate an acceptable settlement - but that wasn't knowable in June last year.

    So has anyone's opinion actually changed?

    Genuinely interested, because I can see us ending up in second referendum territory before 2019. And we've effectively been campaigning on PB for over a year now. Feels to me like the more a political issue is discussed, the more entrenched people's views become.

    Pretty much turned out as I expected, including the government's inability to negotiate an acceptable settlement. That's because Brexit was predicated on a set of false premises. They wanted to reject and separate from Europe while maintaining the status quo in a practice. While the government is incompetent, the contradiction was always irreconcilable
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    felix said:

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
    TBH - unless they actually start doing their jobs instead of manoeuvring for PM then they will be annihilated next time out.
    Maybe you should start looking at the polls compared to the narrative in your head.
    I prefer to go by history. Divided parties or in-fighting parties are usually rewarded by being booted out of office.
    Of course as that fits your natural inclinations you will choose to ignore empirical evidence.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    felix said:

    felix said:

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
    TBH - unless they actually start doing their jobs instead of manoeuvring for PM then they will be annihilated next time out.
    Maybe you should start looking at the polls compared to the narrative in your head.
    I prefer to go by history. Divided parties or in-fighting parties are usually rewarded by being booted out of office.
    Whilst I do agree with you I can't help but think that recent history seems to disprove that point given I would find it hard to think of a more divided, in-fighting party than Labour just a few months ago.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
    Which, coincidentally, was after Black Wednesday and Labour never looked back for 8 years.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited July 2017
    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
    Yes but the direction of travel is moving against Labour already. It would be insignificant except you cannot ignore the level of media negativity against the Tories since the GE which has been exceptional and continues apace. Given the circumstances Labour ought to be 20 points ahead but with Corbyn in charge the surge seems to have ended. I'm unlikely to ever vote Labour but there are plenty of soft Tory voters who seem unwilling to move. If i was a Labour supporter that would have me very worried.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mrs C, Aurelian's a fairly recent chap, he did a lot to resolve the Crisis of the Third Century.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Haven't watched Doctor Who in years - I absolutely loved it when David Tennant was the Doctor. I may start watching it again though, especially given some of the backlash on Twitter to the recent announcement.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    felix said:

    felix said:

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
    TBH - unless they actually start doing their jobs instead of manoeuvring for PM then they will be annihilated next time out.
    Maybe you should start looking at the polls compared to the narrative in your head.
    I prefer to go by history. Divided parties or in-fighting parties are usually rewarded by being booted out of office.
    Whilst I do agree with you I can't help but think that recent history seems to disprove that point given I would find it hard to think of a more divided, in-fighting party than Labour just a few months ago.
    True - and they did not win. It is only after the election that the Tories initiated Civil War :)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017
    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
    Yes but the direction of travel is moving against Labour already. It would be insignificant except you cannot ignore the level of media negativity against the Tories since the GE which has been exceptional and continues apace. Given the circumstances Labour ought to be 20 points ahead but with Corbyn in charge the surge seems to have ended. I'm unlikely to ever vote Labour but their are plenty of soft Tory voters who seem unwilling to move. If i was a Labour supporter that would have me very worried.
    It's not unprecedented for the election "winners" to have negative publicity either. In 2005, Labour had a disastrous press in the weeks afterwards because they'd not won by as much as expected and had a very poor share of the vote, Blair was declared a dead man walking, and Brown immediately went on maneuveures...... but they still kept the lead in the polls for months afterwards, because, even when there's negative publicity, election winners always get a honeymoon. It is incredibly unusual, and very impressive on Labour's part, that there's been no honeymoon at all this time.

    Oppositions going 20 points ahead within weeks of losing an election just does not happen, ever, no matter how bad the situation is for the government. Voters don't admit they got their decision wrong in an election that quickly, even if they eventually they change their minds a year or two later.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
    TBH - unless they actually start doing their jobs instead of manoeuvring for PM then they will be annihilated next time out.
    Maybe you should start looking at the polls compared to the narrative in your head.
    I prefer to go by history. Divided parties or in-fighting parties are usually rewarded by being booted out of office.
    Of course as that fits your natural inclinations you will choose to ignore empirical evidence.
    Polls are guesses. History is a bit more definitive. As for "natural inclinations" I suggest you look in the mirror.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    For anybody who is interested, the official announcement is out and, apparently, yes it *is* Jodie Whitaker. Which has the fangirls squeeing with much squee
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    surbiton said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So are we all ready for the big post final announcement?

    Who will be the next Dr Who?

    ed balls
    It will be a woman.
    Well, if you want a job done properly.... :D
    Jodie Whittaker or TSE in drag?
    Jodie Whittaker or course. TSE in drag is still TSE and would probably just use the Tardis to post anti Mrs May threads in large glowing letters in the sky. :)
    I suspect he would use it to go back in time and write threads about how awful she would be if she ever became PM just so he could point to them afterwards to prove how perceptive he was.
    :+1: I suspect you are totally correct on that one Mr Tyndall
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited July 2017
    It looks like the second Test is lost, my friends, so who do PBers think should be dropped for the next Test?

    Personally, I'd start with the Chairman of Selectors.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    viewcode said:

    For anybody who is interested, the official announcement is out and, apparently, yes it *is* Jodie Whitaker. Which has the fangirls squeeing with much squee

    Funnily enough and surprisingly for me, my 16 year old daughter and her friends who are all big Dr Who fans are singularly underwhelmed. I think this is in part because they had their hearts set on someone like Ben Wishaw but I have already heard a couple of them talk about tokenism.

    I, on the other hand, am very happy with it. But then I am completely immersed in the whole world of geekdom and have already seen plenty of my favourite sci-fi characters successfully recast as women. It is nothing new.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
    Yes but the direction of travel is moving against Labour already. It would be insignificant except you cannot ignore the level of media negativity against the Tories since the GE which has been exceptional and continues apace. Given the circumstances Labour ought to be 20 points ahead but with Corbyn in charge the surge seems to have ended. I'm unlikely to ever vote Labour but there are plenty of soft Tory voters who seem unwilling to move. If i was a Labour supporter that would have me very worried.
    I bet you were one of those looking at a majority of 150 in April.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, Aurelian's a fairly recent chap, he did a lot to resolve the Crisis of the Third Century.

    You mean he is merely 1,700 years dead, not 2,000? That is not going to make a lot of difference Mr Dancer
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-40624288

    Yes, it is really Jodie Whittaker.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited July 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard: your post to me on the previous thread deserves a serious answer. Unfortunately, I just returned from a pub lunch and will give your question the attention it deserves later.

    Ta old chap. I was just surprised by what appeared to be a big change in view. My immediate thought is I have misunderstood one of your positions but I can't really reconcile either.
    OK, I've made a cup of tea :smile:

    In any economy, each sector will run a surplus (i.e. it's saving) or a deficit (it's borrowing), plus there will be an external adjustment for the change in net position with the rest of the world.

    So, an example economy might have a situation thus:

    Households +2.5%
    Corporates -1.0%
    Government -1.0%
    Rest of World -0.5%

    This means that the Household sector is saving equivalent to 2.5% of GDP, while the Corporate and Government Sectors are borrowing 1% of GDP each. Because everything has to balance, this means that the Rest of the World will have a -0.5% flow. That is, money equivalent to 0.5% of GDP is heading abroad to buy assets. (Or to lend to profligate Americans or Greeks.)

    My point earlier today was more a technical economic point: in an economy with no external flows (of which there are none, of course), then saving in the household sector must be matched by borrowing in other sectors. Otherwise, there's no one to lend to.

    The problem we have had is that the Household, Corporate and Government Sectors have all run deficits (they've all been borrowing) and that's been balanced by having a positive flow from the the rest of the world. A positive flow being, of course, money coming in today that needs to be paid back tomorrow.

    I've had a few drinks so this may not be entirely clear. I'll attempt to write it more clearly after a nap.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    viewcode said:

    For anybody who is interested, the official announcement is out and, apparently, yes it *is* Jodie Whitaker. Which has the fangirls squeeing with much squee

    What does Hammond think of a woman as Dr Who? The other day he was marvelling that modern technology meant women could even drive trains. What about a Tardis?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233

    ...have already seen plenty of my favourite sci-fi characters successfully recast as women...

    The only two I can think of off the top of my head are Missy (Dr Who) and Starbuck in the BSG reboot. Which ones were you thinking of?

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    The answer is IMHO that the or initial polls were a load of doo doo do nothing can be drawn from any of it. Its rather amusing pollsters drawing conclusions from polls they surely knew couldnt be right at the start, and added to that, most were wrong at the end...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    surbiton said:

    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
    Yes but the direction of travel is moving against Labour already. It would be insignificant except you cannot ignore the level of media negativity against the Tories since the GE which has been exceptional and continues apace. Given the circumstances Labour ought to be 20 points ahead but with Corbyn in charge the surge seems to have ended. I'm unlikely to ever vote Labour but there are plenty of soft Tory voters who seem unwilling to move. If i was a Labour supporter that would have me very worried.
    I bet you were one of those looking at a majority of 150 in April.
    Always good to hear from those who were expecting anything else in April. Especially with supporting links to their posts of that time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mrs C, three hundred years is the difference between Guy Fawkes and Adolf Hitler.

    On Who: will there now be male companions? :p
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. Eagles, thanks :D

    Reposted:
    To be fair, who could've predicted the catalogue of mistakes and sheer stupidity of the Conservative campaign?

    Frightened core vote on an emotive subject with an ill-conceived policy? Check.
    Failed to scrutinise opposition policies? Check
    Build campaign against single figure whose popularity falls off a cliff? Check.
    Refuse to comment on strong suit (economy) because PM wants to throw Chancellor under a bus? Check.
    Campaign in safe opposition seats and lack marginals focus, leading to many narrow losses? Check.

    Parrot "strong and stable" which was undermined even by calling the election in the first place after months of ruling one out, let alone the dementia tax u-turn? Check

    Run Crosby's wholly negative campaign despite the last few negative campaigns failing? Check

    Make JC seem a legitimate politician not a clown by being too frit to debate with him? Check
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,091
    Most of the ascribed swing is actually Mori's polling error rather than an actual shift in opinion.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233

    On Who: will there now be male companions? :p

    Rory/Arthur Darvill is on the phone: he'd like a word...

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited July 2017

    Mrs C, Aurelian's a fairly recent chap, he did a lot to resolve the Crisis of the Third Century.

    I have just read his wikipedia bio. Given that you proposed him as a modern day politician, we may have already had his reincarnation - David Cameron...

    "Reunited a fragmented [Tory party] while saving [the Tories] from barbarian invasions that had reached [the Party Conference] itself. His death prevented a full restoration of political stability and a lasting dynasty that could end the cycle of [defenestration of PMs] and civil war that marked this period."

    My edits in [ brackets ] :D
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
    Yes but the direction of travel is moving against Labour already. It would be insignificant except you cannot ignore the level of media negativity against the Tories since the GE which has been exceptional and continues apace. Given the circumstances Labour ought to be 20 points ahead but with Corbyn in charge the surge seems to have ended. I'm unlikely to ever vote Labour but their are plenty of soft Tory voters who seem unwilling to move. If i was a Labour supporter that would have me very worried.
    It's not unprecedented for the election "winners" to have negative publicity either. In 2005, Labour had a disastrous press in the weeks afterwards because they'd not won by as much as expected and had a very poor share of the vote, Blair was declared a dead man walking, and Brown immediately went on maneuveures...... but they still kept the lead in the polls for months afterwards, because, even when there's negative publicity, election winners always get a honeymoon. It is incredibly unusual, and very impressive on Labour's part, that there's been no honeymoon at all this time.

    Oppositions going 20 points ahead within weeks of losing an election just does not happen, ever, no matter how bad the situation is for the government. Voters don't admit they got their decision wrong in an election that quickly, even if they eventually they change their minds a year or two later.
    Again you ignore the fact that the Labour boost has already petered out and the unique circumstances of today. I love your notion that this is May's honeymoon period. I salute your loyalty to Mr Corbyn - this is excellent news for the tories.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, three hundred years is the difference between Guy Fawkes and Adolf Hitler.

    On Who: will there now be male companions? :p

    They are both dead as well.

    Just saying .... :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    surbiton said:

    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
    Yes but the direction of travel is moving against Labour already. It would be insignificant except you cannot ignore the level of media negativity against the Tories since the GE which has been exceptional and continues apace. Given the circumstances Labour ought to be 20 points ahead but with Corbyn in charge the surge seems to have ended. I'm unlikely to ever vote Labour but there are plenty of soft Tory voters who seem unwilling to move. If i was a Labour supporter that would have me very worried.
    I bet you were one of those looking at a majority of 150 in April.
    You're fortunate I don't bet because a review of my pre-election posts will see my expectations were mostly for 50+ at best. Albeit still wrong but I'm loving the lefty hubris.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    felix said:

    surbiton said:

    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    LAB: 43% (-2) CON: 41% (+2) LDEM: 5% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 2% (-) (via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)

    So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.

    On the other hand, modest though Labour's lead is, this is still the quickest an Opposition has moved ahead in the polls after an election since 1979.

    Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
    Yes but the direction of travel is moving against Labour already. It would be insignificant except you cannot ignore the level of media negativity against the Tories since the GE which has been exceptional and continues apace. Given the circumstances Labour ought to be 20 points ahead but with Corbyn in charge the surge seems to have ended. I'm unlikely to ever vote Labour but there are plenty of soft Tory voters who seem unwilling to move. If i was a Labour supporter that would have me very worried.
    I bet you were one of those looking at a majority of 150 in April.
    You're fortunate I don't bet because a review of my pre-election posts will see my expectations were mostly for 50+ at best. Albeit still wrong but I'm loving the lefty hubris.
    Wrong but close is a very unprofitable betting mindset.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    viewcode said:

    ...have already seen plenty of my favourite sci-fi characters successfully recast as women...

    The only two I can think of off the top of my head are Missy (Dr Who) and Starbuck in the BSG reboot. Which ones were you thinking of?

    Off the top of my head

    Thor in the Marvel comics.
    Holly in Red Dwarf
    M in James Bond

    I must admit the one I thought worked best was Starbuck in the BSG reboot.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    viewcode said:

    ...have already seen plenty of my favourite sci-fi characters successfully recast as women...

    The only two I can think of off the top of my head are Missy (Dr Who) and Starbuck in the BSG reboot. Which ones were you thinking of?

    Who would have the Master as a 'favourite' sci-fi character? He's been a one-dimensional cartoon villain since the start, and only the Missy incarnation gave the character any depth.

    Starbuck (in both incarnations) is a very different matter ...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    The next GE will be fought on the Conservative Government's record in the next 4 years or so , and that is likely to be so bad that no matter how good a campaign they run , nothing will avoid defeat as big or greater than that suffered in 1997 .

    Lol - that's one to keep!
    TBH - unless they actually start doing their jobs instead of manoeuvring for PM then they will be annihilated next time out.
    Maybe you should start looking at the polls compared to the narrative in your head.
    I prefer to go by history. Divided parties or in-fighting parties are usually rewarded by being booted out of office.
    Of course as that fits your natural inclinations you will choose to ignore empirical evidence.
    Polls are guesses. History is a bit more definitive. As for "natural inclinations" I suggest you look in the mirror.
    Oh indeed we all look for evidence to support our preferences - as a retired Historian I find your faith in it very touching. I believe that the LDs and the SNP have a strong history of party unity with polling success in the case of the former that Tories can only dream about.
This discussion has been closed.