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2017 election saw the biggest swing DURING an election campaign ever – uncertainty is the new normal pic.twitter.com/VVTCADtY0T
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Humbug!
F1: great race today, writing post-race nonsense now.
If the British Grand Prix is this good whilst we're still under Article 50 then I can't wait to see how much better the post-Brexit races are.
Your comment is here
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1680681/#Comment_1680681
Reposted:
To be fair, who could've predicted the catalogue of mistakes and sheer stupidity of the Conservative campaign?
Frightened core vote on an emotive subject with an ill-conceived policy? Check.
Failed to scrutinise opposition policies? Check
Build campaign against single figure whose popularity falls off a cliff? Check.
Refuse to comment on strong suit (economy) because PM wants to throw Chancellor under a bus? Check.
Campaign in safe opposition seats and lack marginals focus, leading to many narrow losses? Check.
F1: great race today, writing post-race nonsense now.
Has anyone on PB actually changed ther opinion on Brexit in a year of arguing about it?
I've always been a soft leaver type and had Cameron's negotiation been a little better I could have seen myself voting to stay in. Since then, I've occasionally had days where I've woken up going "uh-oh, what have I done?" but by the end of the day steadied myself by remembering none of the fundamentals have changed - all the stuff that made me anti-EU, the erosion of sovereignty, the democratic deficit, the economic and social problems caused by free movement - are still there and will only get worse with ever closer union. So despite a year of debate my views remain pretty much unchanged. The only thing that has changed is my belief in the government's ability to negotiate an acceptable settlement - but that wasn't knowable in June last year.
So has anyone's opinion actually changed?
Genuinely interested, because I can see us ending up in second referendum territory before 2019. And we've effectively been campaigning on PB for over a year now. Feels to me like the more a political issue is discussed, the more entrenched people's views become.
As you say, the fundamentals haven't changed. I also share your concern about getting a reasonable negotiation, but the alternative is ever more integration.
Had we voted Remain, the hardcore EU-philes would've been trying to paint that as agreement to full steam ahead.
I think the majority (soft either side) just want it settled.
In response to Mr 100, I'd agree with much of Morris D's viewpoint. The fundamentals haven't changed though I doubt had we chosen to vote to REMAIN, Cameron and Osborne would have been able (even if they had been so willing) to endorse further integration.
For me, the "second referendum" is becoming more important as May's Government tries frantically to disavow or share ownership of or "the blame" for the actual negotiations themselves.
Unlike many, I can't have the rejection of any Treaty as a signal for wanting continued EU membership. As we saw with Maastricht, the rules can be bent if need be and if the treaty agreed by the May Government isn't to the satisfaction of the British people, they (or preferably someone else) will have to go back and negotiate something we can accept.
There may be no scope for this or there may be.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/united-kingdom-post-race-analysis-2017.html
Mid-season review likely up next week. There might even be some splendid graphs to admire.
I was, for years, a "lukewarm Leaver". Right up to the referendum itself I was torn between Leave or Remain. As the big day approached I looked at the issues and how difficult it was going to be to pick everything apart and the obvious bluster from Boris, Gove & Co. convinced me that they were utterly clueless and flying by the seat of their pants. When I stood in the booth with the voting slip in front of me I reluctantly ticked "Remain".
Looking at what has happened since, I was absolutely correct about Boris, Gove and Fox being useless. I have been astounded by the complete inability of the govt to get its act together and take a concrete negotiating stance with definite objectives. Instead those of them that are doing anything just womble along in a fantasy world spouting platitudes.
We are Brexiting. We are going because our own politicians are too amateur to actually do their jobs and they will bumble along spouting platitudes until March 2019 and then we will be WTO'd.
The central issue seems to be competence - and the current lot are looking woefully incompetent. FWIW, I would have to think long and hard before casting my vote in any theoretical second referendum, even though my ideological position hasn't changed.
TMay's failure to reach out to moderates like @ThomasNashe looks like an enormous tactical error now. And I can't help but feel that once you lose your reputation for competence it's all over in a GE. I think the unusually large swing in June could well be down to TMay starting the campaign with an air of competence and becoming increasingly exposed during it. From competence to calamity in just six weeks.
That said, I was still expecting a 1979-type result, up until 10 pm on polling day.
With competence (ahem) the new Parliament is an opportunity for consensus, but that requires both sides.
Mr. Norm, I haven't watched much. Sounds like I didn't miss much either.
Unlike the gripping British Grand Prix.
I might be making an appearance.
Who will be the next Dr Who?
I was a diffident remainer and have to confess that I underestimated the scale of the national disaster likely to ensue from Leaving, quite possibly because I didn't really think we'd be daft enough to vote that way. I guess I'm one of those Remainers guilty of not campaigning seriously enough and leaving the floor to the other side, so mea culpa indeed.
In the unlikely event of a second referendum I'd be one of the first to cast their ballot in favour of staying in the EU. My view remains however that having made the wrong decision, we should stick with it and try to make the best of it.
I have to disagree about the championship, however. Hamilton must now be the strong favourite. Barring accidents, Hungary should be a walk in the park for Mercedes, and they'll go into the mid season break ahead on both points and development.
It's notable that they happily toook the precautionary gearbox penalty for Bottas, and he still finished seocnd. Ferrari are more likely than Mercedes to encounter engine penalties later in the season, and now Merc are on top of their setup problems, they clearly have a faster car.
It's not a foregone conclusion, but I'm confident enough to have money on them for both the drivers and constructors titles.
...And did OK this weekend, as I confidently predicted the Hamilton full house.
I'm not saying Bottas should be other than third favourite, but 17 is too long, I think. Already put a little on at those odds and not betting any more (backed/tipped each way [pays out for top 3] at 26 pre-season too).
Anyway, we shall see. A nice part of betting is that there's no flim-flam discussion, stuff comes off, or it doesn't.
It's more difficult to guage Momentum's view, but it is essentially a youth movement so on the basis that the young were generally pro-remain, I'd guess Momentum would be so too. But it's only a guess.
The pollsters made an Horlicks out of their samples [ which incidentally were not that wrong ]. It is possible that if the polls had been correct, May may not have called the election after all.
Then again, Doctor Who scripts have been fairly awful for some years; the occasional gem swamped by stuff that wouldn't get accepted by Asimov's.
The other alternative is another leadership battle amongst the Tories as the current infighting becomes civil war and then a failure on a no confidence motion.
In short we will be continuing to look inwards whilst the clock ticks down to March 2019.
I do not know what to think about Corbyn, I certainly do not trust him. However, if a General Election was called I would probably vote Labour just to get the current crop of fools out of government because they really do not deserve to be there IMO. I regard our current government as a collection of incompetent, self-indulgent fools.
So Labour support falls in both w/e polls against a background of negative publicity for the government which continues to ratchet up day by day. Methinks there's a message there for the media - and one or two on here. Indeed it's odd not to be featured on any of the thread headers.
Even in the fateful 1992-97 Parliament, Labour only moved ahead in the polls around 5 months after election day.
Edit: and he as so young!
http://www.aveleyman.com/Gallery/ActorsC/2635-11333.jpg
I still have a few Asimov books on my bookshelf. I suspect they will get donated to someone shortly.
Oppositions going 20 points ahead within weeks of losing an election just does not happen, ever, no matter how bad the situation is for the government. Voters don't admit they got their decision wrong in an election that quickly, even if they eventually they change their minds a year or two later.
Personally, I'd start with the Chairman of Selectors.
I, on the other hand, am very happy with it. But then I am completely immersed in the whole world of geekdom and have already seen plenty of my favourite sci-fi characters successfully recast as women. It is nothing new.
Yes, it is really Jodie Whittaker.
In any economy, each sector will run a surplus (i.e. it's saving) or a deficit (it's borrowing), plus there will be an external adjustment for the change in net position with the rest of the world.
So, an example economy might have a situation thus:
Households +2.5%
Corporates -1.0%
Government -1.0%
Rest of World -0.5%
This means that the Household sector is saving equivalent to 2.5% of GDP, while the Corporate and Government Sectors are borrowing 1% of GDP each. Because everything has to balance, this means that the Rest of the World will have a -0.5% flow. That is, money equivalent to 0.5% of GDP is heading abroad to buy assets. (Or to lend to profligate Americans or Greeks.)
My point earlier today was more a technical economic point: in an economy with no external flows (of which there are none, of course), then saving in the household sector must be matched by borrowing in other sectors. Otherwise, there's no one to lend to.
The problem we have had is that the Household, Corporate and Government Sectors have all run deficits (they've all been borrowing) and that's been balanced by having a positive flow from the the rest of the world. A positive flow being, of course, money coming in today that needs to be paid back tomorrow.
I've had a few drinks so this may not be entirely clear. I'll attempt to write it more clearly after a nap.
On Who: will there now be male companions?
Run Crosby's wholly negative campaign despite the last few negative campaigns failing? Check
Make JC seem a legitimate politician not a clown by being too frit to debate with him? Check
"Reunited a fragmented [Tory party] while saving [the Tories] from barbarian invasions that had reached [the Party Conference] itself. His death prevented a full restoration of political stability and a lasting dynasty that could end the cycle of [defenestration of PMs] and civil war that marked this period."
My edits in [ brackets ]
Just saying ....
Thor in the Marvel comics.
Holly in Red Dwarf
M in James Bond
I must admit the one I thought worked best was Starbuck in the BSG reboot.
Starbuck (in both incarnations) is a very different matter ...