politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It would appear some Tory MPs are determined to see a British

David_Evershed said:

When the coalition took office in 2010, most people recognised that the economy was in a steep dive and that sharp spending cuts had to be made because investors would stop lending to the government.

That's when we should have cut public sector salaries by 5%-10% depending on the level. Plus slashed government spending on everything else by 5%.

That way we would have eliminated the deficit within a couple of years at a time when people could see it was necessary.

Now we still have a deficit of £50bn a year and few people think it is a problem (mistakenly) so it is harder to correct the problem.

IMF here we come.

The LDs would never have allowed them to make those cuts.

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/stellacreasy/status/880412734843736064
Also - well done Stella Creasy. Was so pleased to see the notification on my phone that the government intends to fund abortions for women from Northern Ireland.

This is what being a progressive should be, not admiring Hugo Chavez and believing Julian Assange and RT.

A ray of hope that we could get a HOC that works on consensus - also well done Stella

@PolhomeEditor: Looks like big Labour rebellion as Chuka Umunna's amendment to Queen's Speech on Brexit and single market membership falls by 322 to 101.

AllyPally_Rob said:

David_Evershed said:

When the coalition took office in 2010, most people recognised that the economy was in a steep dive and that sharp spending cuts had to be made because investors would stop lending to the government.

That's when we should have cut public sector salaries by 5%-10% depending on the level. Plus slashed government spending on everything else by 5%.

That way we would have eliminated the deficit within a couple of years at a time when people could see it was necessary.

Now we still have a deficit of £50bn a year and few people think it is a problem (mistakenly) so it is harder to correct the problem.

IMF here we come.

Do people seriously think that cuts rather than stimulus would have been a sensible step during the economic crash?!

Seems like the economics of the mad house to me...

It seemed to work in Ireland and Spain...

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/880464192398127105

"Dozens of Conservative MPs have urged Andrea Leadsom to run for the party leadership" - according to a leaked copy of her current cv.

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/880464912358789121

Pulpstar said:

Did Ken decide the Single market amendment was a good time to have a coffee ?

Or Anna

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Did Ken decide the Single market amendment was a good time to have a coffee ?

Or Anna

Clive Lewis managed to miss the pay vote ysterday.

Ken Clarke and Soubry both voting with government.

Main motion:

323-309

Identical to yesterday.

Betfair should now settle:

- PM after GE
- Next government

Scott_P said:

@nickeardleybbc: Queen's Speech passes.... just. 323 to 309

Jolly rude of 309 MPs not to offer their humble thanks to Her Majesty for her Gracious Speech.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/880465736044621829
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/880467842700849152

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/880468494030188544

https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/880468735492071424

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/880468735492071424

oh dear.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/880468735492071424

Who?

Amendment 1 323 was Tories + DUP
Amendment 2 323 was Tories + DUP - Campbell (East Derry) + Hermon
Amendment 3 322 was Tories + DUP - Campbell (East Derry)

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/880468494030188544

It's deja vu all over again.

I wonder how Phillip Collins' new party fundraising is going?

rottenborough said:

PM after GE market on BF is suspended. Guess they are about to settle.

Come on May, resign in the next ten minutes and anoint Hammond.

Politics - looks like Corbyn suddenly has problems - and so many think he is a walk over for the next government - 7 days used to be a long time in politics - looks like that may have fo be reviewed down

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/880464192398127105

Wonder whatJon Snow thinks to Jezza wanting to leave the single market and customs union?

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/880468494030188544

It's deja vu all over again.

I wonder how Phillip Collins' new party fundraising is going?

Opposition of chaos ?

BF PM market settled.

GIN1138 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/880464192398127105

Wonder whatJon Snow thinks to Jezza wanting to leave the single market and customs union?

Well, exactly.

How he does he feel about Corbyn taking the Jacob Rees-Mogg line on Brexit after what he allegedly said at Glastonbury?

@paulwaugh: Looks like Gareth Thomas fired too from front bench. All shad mins warned beforehand to either quit or be sacked if backed Chuka amndment

Next Gov being Tory minority has paid out on BF.

Amazing that I managed to scramble on to this at 1am on night of the GE at 3.65 (that's after the exit poll).

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Looks like Gareth Thomas fired too from front bench. All shad mins warned beforehand to either quit or be sacked if backed Chuka amndment

Looks like they see supporting a Soft Brexit as more important then following Corbyn. Good.

The_Apocalypse said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

.....and it starts again. I have to say, Corbyn has brought this all on himself.

In what way?

By thinking that he could take a line on Brexit that signifcantly departs from what many Labour MPs think.

Right, although he'd have the same problem if he took a different line. There isn't a consensus in Labour on the subject. It's remarkable that they were able to fudge the issue during the election campaign - that was clever politicking.

tlg86 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

.....and it starts again. I have to say, Corbyn has brought this all on himself.

In what way?

By thinking that he could take a line on Brexit that signifcantly departs from what many Labour MPs think.

Erm - have a look at the manifesto. It's the Labour Remainer Ultras who are in the wrong party.

No, Labour have been a pro-EU party for years and years. It's Corbyn who is in the wrong party - Labour is not a Hard Left organisation, yet he and McDonnell are both on the Hard Left.

The manifesto line on Brexit does not reflect what many Labour MPs think. It by and large reflects the thoughts of Corbyn and McDonnell.

Corbyn was being unrealistic if he thought that all Labour MPs were going to stick to his line on Brexit.

The_Apocalypse said:

I have to say, it doesn't look good for Corbyn when around 50 MPs rebel against him re Chuka's amendment while May doesn't suffer anywhere near the same.

Corbyn has proved himself an able campaigner during the last few months. However that is a very different set of skills from leading a party, and there is little reason to believe the election campaign has improved his leadership skills one jot.

All it has done is make it harder for the rebels. But as far as I can tell he is doing nothing to reach out to all corners of the party, and he seems to want them to bow to his will. Today shows that he might find they are unwilling to do so.

It will be odd if, after the disastrous election for the Conservatives, they end up more united than the Labour party.

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/880467737302224896


https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/880469459173072896

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/880464192398127105

You can't read so much into a vote held as part of Queen's Speech debate. The Commons is still full of Remainers. Half the country are still Remainers. Half of Brexit voters are in favour of the single market. And so on.

It's still very likely that when we leave the EU it'll hardly be possible to tell the difference.

It has been a better week for Theresa and looks like she will stay in place until march 2019

GIN1138 said:

witter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/880467737302224896


twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/880469459173072896

I am sure a particular QT panelist this evening will say otherwise....

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/880472551193026561

nigel4england said:

The_Apocalypse said:

tlg86 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

.....and it starts again. I have to say, Corbyn has brought this all on himself.

In what way?

By thinking that he could take a line on Brexit that signifcantly departs from what many Labour MPs think.

Erm - have a look at the manifesto. It's the Labour Remainer Ultras who are in the wrong party.

No, Labour have been a pro-EU party for years and years. It's Corbyn who is in the wrong party - Labour is not a Hard Left organisation, yet he and McDonnell are both on the Hard Left.

The manifesto line on Brexit does not reflect what many Labour MPs think. It by and large reflects the thoughts of Corbyn and McDonnell.

Corbyn was being unrealistic if he thought that all Labour MPs were going to stick to his line on Brexit.

And many of it's voters.

Many of Labour's voters are also Remainers. That's the trouble - in accquiring some of the Kipper vote as well as Labour Leavers there is now a coalition between them and Remainers that Corbyn has to negotiate.

Kuennsberg and the BBC reporting the win as a disaster for May. Eh?

KentRising said:

Kuennsberg and the BBC reporting the win as a disaster for May. Eh?

And not a word about Corbyn sacking front benchers.

tlg86 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

tlg86 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

.....and it starts again. I have to say, Corbyn has brought this all on himself.

In what way?

By thinking that he could take a line on Brexit that signifcantly departs from what many Labour MPs think.

Erm - have a look at the manifesto. It's the Labour Remainer Ultras who are in the wrong party.

No, Labour have been a pro-EU party for years and years. It's Corbyn who is in the wrong party - Labour is not a Hard Left organisation, yet he and McDonnell are both on the Hard Left.

The manifesto line on Brexit does not reflect what many Labour MPs think. It by and large reflects the thoughts of Corbyn and McDonnell.

Christ, where have you been for the last four weeks? Who the fuck do you think those people were voting for? It certainly wasn't Chuka Umunna.

Where have you been for the last four weeks?

Everything I've said is true. Why, you think Labour have become a party full of Hard Brexiteers because Corbyn and McDonnell are leading them?

You think all Labour voters are Hard Brexiteers, do you? Think again.

JosiasJessop said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I have to say, it doesn't look good for Corbyn when around 50 MPs rebel against him re Chuka's amendment while May doesn't suffer anywhere near the same.

Corbyn has proved himself an able campaigner during the last few months. However that is a very different set of skills from leading a party, and there is little reason to believe the election campaign has improved his leadership skills one jot.

All it has done is make it harder for the rebels. But as far as I can tell he is doing nothing to reach out to all corners of the party, and he seems to want them to bow to his will. Today shows that he might find they are unwilling to do so.

It will be odd if, after the disastrous election for the Conservatives, they end up more united than the Labour party.

+1.

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

KentRising said:

Kuennsberg and the BBC reporting the win as a disaster for May. Eh?

And not a word about Corbyn sacking front benchers.

Hardly news.

In the context of todays votes it is but again it is so frequent I take your point

Well, well, well. I expected Labour to hit trouble but perhaps not this early. Wonder what bobajob's spin will be! Seems like Umunna still has knives out for Corbyn.

May must be worried about Heidi Allen, she appears to eclipsed Soubry, Wollaston and Morgan as the noisy one to worry about. Days like today reinforce the importance of that DUP deal. Being wounded but being in power and able to fight on is always the best option, and this enemy doesn't look as strong as it did in the last battle.

How do we know that this rumour is true>

Danny565 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

nigel4england said:

The_Apocalypse said:

tlg86 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

.....and it starts again. I have to say, Corbyn has brought this all on himself.

In what way?

By thinking that he could take a line on Brexit that signifcantly departs from what many Labour MPs think.

Erm - have a look at the manifesto. It's the Labour Remainer Ultras who are in the wrong party.

No, Labour have been a pro-EU party for years and years. It's Corbyn who is in the wrong party - Labour is not a Hard Left organisation, yet he and McDonnell are both on the Hard Left.

The manifesto line on Brexit does not reflect what many Labour MPs think. It by and large reflects the thoughts of Corbyn and McDonnell.

Corbyn was being unrealistic if he thought that all Labour MPs were going to stick to his line on Brexit.

And many of it's voters.

Many of Labour's voters are also Remainers. That's the trouble - in accquiring some of the Kipper vote as well as Labour Leavers there is now a coalition between them and Remainers that Corbyn has to negotiate.

Having been on the doorsteps a fair bit during the campaign, I can assure you that most people whether Remainers or Leavers think a democratic decision has been made, and that Labour needs to respect it by supporting a proper Brexit. It was only because of Corbyn reassuring people that that was the case in the early weeks of the campaign that the rest of Labour's popular policies even got a hearing.

I believe that democratic decision has been made and I'm not in favour of cancelling Brexit. Don't think that just because someone respects the vote that they desire a Hard off the cliff edge Brexit. Even some of the Leavers on this site don't want that.

Corbyn reassured Kippers, and that's what got them on board - Remainers were not looking for such 'reassurance'.

There is no consensus in this country on what kind of Brexit we should have.

The_Apocalypse said:

tlg86 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

tlg86 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

.....and it starts again. I have to say, Corbyn has brought this all on himself.

In what way?

By thinking that he could take a line on Brexit that signifcantly departs from what many Labour MPs think.

Erm - have a look at the manifesto. It's the Labour Remainer Ultras who are in the wrong party.

No, Labour have been a pro-EU party for years and years. It's Corbyn who is in the wrong party - Labour is not a Hard Left organisation, yet he and McDonnell are both on the Hard Left.

The manifesto line on Brexit does not reflect what many Labour MPs think. It by and large reflects the thoughts of Corbyn and McDonnell.

Christ, where have you been for the last four weeks? Who the fuck do you think those people were voting for? It certainly wasn't Chuka Umunna.

Where have you been for the last four weeks?

Everything I've said is true. Why, you think Labour have become a party full of Hard Brexiteers because Corbyn and McDonnell are leading them?

You think all Labour voters are Hard Brexiteers, do you? Think again.

You said "Labour is not a Hard Left organisation". Oh yes it is.

Danny565 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

tlg86 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

.....and it starts again. I have to say, Corbyn has brought this all on himself.

In what way?

By thinking that he could take a line on Brexit that signifcantly departs from what many Labour MPs think.

Erm - have a look at the manifesto. It's the Labour Remainer Ultras who are in the wrong party.

No, Labour have been a pro-EU party for years and years. It's Corbyn who is in the wrong party - Labour is not a Hard Left organisation, yet he and McDonnell are both on the Hard Left.

The manifesto line on Brexit does not reflect what many Labour MPs think. It by and large reflects the thoughts of Corbyn and McDonnell.

Corbyn was being unrealistic if he thought that all Labour MPs were going to stick to his line on Brexit.

With respect, you really have no right to be dishing out lectures on Corbyn and McDonnell being "far left" and "unelectable", when you evidently want Labour to take a policy position which is far more slavishly pro-Europe than the public is.

And with respect, you have no right to be accusing me of things I didn't say - I didn't say that Corbyn and McDonnell were 'unelectable.' I said they were Hard Left, which they ARE.

Voters have a position of cognitive dissonance on the kind of Brexit they want: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/16/uk-voters-want-single-market-access-and-immigration-controls-poll-finds

Voters want single market membership AND immigration controls. They think they can have their cake eat it.

tlg86 said:

You said "Labour is not a Hard Left organisation". Oh yes it is.

No it is not.

Corbyn and McDonnell don't have controls over Labour's internal structures just yet....

Ouch......
@Nigel_Farage
Corbyn showing his true Brexit colours. He's almost a proper chap.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/880476632296960000

The_Apocalypse said:

I believe that democratic decision has been made and I'm not in favour of cancelling Brexit. Don't think that just because someone respects the vote that they desire a Hard off the cliff edge Brexit. Even some of the Leavers on this site don't want that.

Corbyn reassured Kippers, and that's what got them on board - Remainers were not looking for such 'reassurance'.

There is no consensus in this country on what kind of Brexit we should have.

Sorry, but in my view, the public would consider that your preferred way forward would be "cancelling Brexit" to all intents and purposes -- although I don't think most people would have a clue what "the Single Market" was if you said it to them, most people do think controls on immigration are a non-negotiable part of Brexit, which staying in the SM would seem to preclude.

And a lot of Remain voters certainly were looking for reassurance - loads of them were citing a concern that Labour would overturn Brexit in the first couple of weeks of the campaign as a reason why they felt they couldn't vote for the party, even if they did vote Remain. And if you don't trust my anecdotes, there's been a fair few polls from YouGov and the like which have put the number of people who want to overturn Brexit at about 20-25%.