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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-strong favourite BoJo slips even further in the next CON le

There’s been a lot movement on the next CON leader betting markets since we last looked at it a week ago. BoJo continues to decline and, indeed, has stated that he would not want it at the moment.
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https://twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712
So no bet for me until there is a vacancy. An honourable Prime Minister might feel obliged to step down after leading the party into an unnecessary and disastrous election, but Theresa May is no Lord Carrington or even an Estelle Morris who at least had the brains to recognise she was out of her depth and the courage to do something about it.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-4639738/Triple-lock-winter-fuel-payouts-saved.html
That is, of course, the whole point of the conservative party. The tories aren't even the party of middle aged moderate-to-high earners any more - they're using the state to shift wealth from them and give it to the already-wealthy pensioners.
Am I right in thinking these were ordered by Gordon Brown?
Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.
Now Available :
Download the Con/DUP APP - Alliance of Pork Providers .. cost only £1bn to selected suckers in England, Wales and Scotland.
Oink Oink
The Tories shouldn't do anything to help trigger a GE until Corbyn is over 70 (on 26th May 2019) and beyond his sell-by-date. The date of the next GE should be the first Thursday in May 2020, as originally scheduled.
If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.
If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.
I'd be laying him and Boris.
That said, I do not expect a new leader would make any great difference to the affairs of state but just feel, now the DUP deal is in place, the Prime Minister should do the right thing.
That seems to be the Conservative Party motto these days, its very depressing.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3889508/theresa-may-dup-deal-confidence-and-supply-24-3billion/amp/
Didn't he plan on being ruler of the world at one time?
I like toffs, they add to the gaiety of the nation, but seeing one of them slip on a banana skin is hilarious. Let's face it, would you rather have a drink with Jacob Rees Mogg or John McDonnell?
The £1bn was a very small cost to achieve this greater good.
I don't think DD does, he seems to like his existing role deciding our future outside the EU.
Bojo is the only Tory who can compete with Jezza for the youth vote. He has charisma and speaking ability. The others can only preach to the converted, and then only to part of the congregation.
You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?
Where was your concern for the public purse when you trotted through the lobbies ?
Dr. Foxinsox, Davis is in the odd position of having an incredibly important but also temporary job. If he screws it up, PM hopes are gone, and riding both horses at once might be impossible. It could be quite effective (potentially, anyway) to have almost a co-leader approach, with Davis mostly handling our EU departure on his own, and Hammond focusing on the domestic agenda.
I've backed Hammond for this.
The minute cash is no longer a factor the bank, and potentially by extension others, will know how and where you spend every penny. People see this as a good thing?
Funny how this isn't pointed out in the discussion.
Davis is winging it and is religious on Brexit.
Or are you still trying to make hay about the battle bus? You know, the one where there were no charges, so everyone is innocent in the eyes of the law? Except for that higher legal force, snide LibDems gits.....
The British people have just given a majority of their votes to parties advocating unilateral UK action on EU citizens' rights.
At some point I fully expect to read that David Davis resigned his own seat in protest to his own policy.
Not clear to me Davis wants it - which is why I'm tempted to lay.
At the moment I'm green on Hammond, Hunt and Rory Stewart.
But I've got this market wrong a lot in the past (far too bullish on George Osborne for the most part) so am wary...
Quite. As Mrs May found out, voters do not necessarily look kindly on being asked more frequently than necessary.
Trying to engineer an election on the basis that they got it wrong would probably turn out badly.
Its a trivial amount compared to the money thrown away so Cameron could play Lord Bountiful:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors
And at least the DUP money will be spent in this country.
Mr. Observer, if we'd had a referendum on EU citizens in the UK that would be a relevant point.
Party power is determined by MPs, not votes.
As for Corbyn's vote, people clearly want a deal which protects their jobs, their services and their rights. They want an end to austerity and above all they want proper pay rises, not changes to income tax thresholds paid for by demolition of the services they use.
Let's hope Theresa got these messages. But I'm not holding my breath.
The demand for everyone to have their say, including strong Remainers is akin to a family deciding to move to a new house in London even though one or two are reluctant. If they let everyone have their input, I'm sure some will demand ...
"It must be in Mayfair, it must have a field for the horse, it must have a stream running through it, and it must cost less than £100k."
"The seller might want more."
"Doesn't matter, that's what we want as a minimum."
And they expect to be taken seriously?
In some ways it doesn't matter, as the end results been hideous for her whatever her reasoning.
Unplanned Ulster Bung = Good
What's a billion quid or rather approx £24bn between the new bosom pals of the Con/DUP APP ?
Labour leader.
There are plenty to lay, and McDonnell at 29/46 to back. Seeing as how the hard left have control of the Labour party that looks better to me than Cooper @ 9-1 (Who I have just laid a touch)
(Hear me out.)
If I were an ambitious, sensible and smart leader of the Scottish nationalists, I would be thinking less about Scottish independence and more about Scottish pork. Bringing government spending to Scotland would seem to be a surer route to re-election than another referendum. "Only we will stand up for Scottish interests, and only we can bring jobs to Scotland" is a pretty effective rallying cry.
Now imagine you were sitting in Cornwall. It's another poorer part of the UK, with strong regional identity. It even has an existing nationalist party. Perhaps it could run candidates that would stand up and bring pork to Cornwall? The LibDems and Labour Party are weak there, and someone standing up for local interests who could bring a billion pounds to the region... well that would look pretty attractive.
I suspect I'm wrong. But if regionalism - and begger thy neighbour politics - is seen to pay, then we will get more of it. This is not a good thing.
Theresa May made clear her commitment to leave the single market and to have a tough negotiation months ago. Those views were broadcast widely. The election conversation was all about Brexit for the first few weeks. During that time she was polling in the high 40s.
Then the manifesto was released, and the conversation turned to social care and winter fuel payments. At that point the Conservative poll numbers fell to the low 40s. The beneficiary was a Labour Party that had also committed to leaving the single market, but was strongly against the changes to social care and winter fuel payment.
The two parties vigorously campaigning against a hard Brexit, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP, slumped for the whole campaign.
This is a rejection of a hard Brexit apparently.