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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-strong favourite BoJo slips even further in the next CON leader betting to just an 8% chance

There’s been a lot movement on the next CON leader betting markets since we last looked at it a week ago. BoJo continues to decline and, indeed, has stated that he would not want it at the moment.

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First!

williamglenn

Second, like "PowerPoint Davis".

CarlottaVance

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

CarlottaVance

Its only when you see HMSQE against something else can you fully appreciate the size of the ship:

https://twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712

DecrepitJohnL

Ah, but when will there be a vacancy? With the DUP deal in place, the government is roughly where it was before the election, and Theresa May might be expected to step down before the next one is due in 2022. The two-year session looks like a clever, Osbornesque trick to avoid or at least postpone trouble. If I were a backbench Conservative MP, I might as well keep hold of nurse, since neither Hammond nor Davies is offering much that is different, and nor is Boris for that matter.

So no bet for me until there is a vacancy. An honourable Prime Minister might feel obliged to step down after leading the party into an unnecessary and disastrous election, but Theresa May is no Lord Carrington or even an Estelle Morris who at least had the brains to recognise she was out of her depth and the courage to do something about it.

Pong

The already wealthy get wealthier, paid for by the not-wealthy and never-going-to-be-wealthy;

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-4639738/Triple-lock-winter-fuel-payouts-saved.html

That is, of course, the whole point of the conservative party. The tories aren't even the party of middle aged moderate-to-high earners any more - they're using the state to shift wealth from them and give it to the already-wealthy pensioners.

RobD

Pong said:

The already wealthy get wealthier, paid for by the not-wealthy and never-going-to-be-wealthy;

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-4639738/Triple-lock-winter-fuel-payouts-saved.html

That is, of course, the whole point of the conservative party. The tories aren't even the party of middle aged moderate-to-high earners any more - they're using the state to shift wealth from them and give it to the already-wealthy pensioners.

Ah yes, the same party proposing cuts to pensioner benefits.

RobD

CarlottaVance said:

Its only when you see HMSQE against something else can you fully appreciate the size of the ship:

twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712

Looks like a tight squeeze. Was this at low tide?

asjohnstone

CarlottaVance said:

Its only when you see HMSQE against something else can you fully appreciate the size of the ship:

https://twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712

It's not giant by international standards, I saw a couple of Nimitz class carriers in San Diego couple of years back, each of them is 30% larger.

Am I right in thinking these were ordered by Gordon Brown?

tlg86

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

Its only when you see HMSQE against something else can you fully appreciate the size of the ship:

twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712

Looks like a tight squeeze. Was this at low tide?

Not only was it low tide, they had monitor rainfall to estimate the amount of water that would be coming in to the Firth of Forth that might have made a difference.

surbiton

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

SquareRoot

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

JackW

Good Morning PBers Worldwide

Now Available :

Download the Con/DUP APP - Alliance of Pork Providers .. cost only £1bn to selected suckers in England, Wales and Scotland.

Oink Oink

daodao

DecrepitJohnL said:

Ah, but when will there be a vacancy? With the DUP deal in place, the government is roughly where it was before the election, and Theresa May might be expected to step down before the next one is due in 2022. The two-year session looks like a clever, Osbornesque trick to avoid or at least postpone trouble. If I were a backbench Conservative MP, I might as well keep hold of nurse, since neither Hammond nor Davies is offering much that is different, and nor is Boris for that matter.

So no bet for me until there is a vacancy. An honourable Prime Minister might feel obliged to step down after leading the party into an unnecessary and disastrous election, but Theresa May is no Lord Carrington or even an Estelle Morris who at least had the brains to recognise she was out of her depth and the courage to do something about it.

May isn't dishonorable by not stepping down now. She has sorted out a deal with another party with sound conservative and unionist values, together with a sensible QS under the circumstances, which will enable the government to function effectively over the next 2 years and deliver Brexit. The time for her to go is between late Spring and late Autumn 2019; if she hangs on beyond then, that would be squatting in 10 Downing Street. Hopefully, other potential candidates will emerge by then.

The Tories shouldn't do anything to help trigger a GE until Corbyn is over 70 (on 26th May 2019) and beyond his sell-by-date. The date of the next GE should be the first Thursday in May 2020, as originally scheduled.

surbiton

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

The correct spelling is: deficit. Since you are going to use the word, might as well do it correctly.

RobD

surbiton said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

The correct spelling is: deficit. Since you are going to use the word, might as well do it correctly.

Handbags on standby.

JosiasJessop

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

HMS Queen Elizabeth was a £3 billion bung by Gordon Brown to Scotland.

surbiton

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

Its only when you see HMSQE against something else can you fully appreciate the size of the ship:

twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712

Looks like a tight squeeze.

Yup, just like Arlene did to Theresa.

RobD

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

SquareRoot

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

its a close misspell to defecate, which is what Brown did all over the UK economy.

RobD

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

its a close misspell to defecate, which is what Brown did all over the UK economy.

Also is nice and close to 'deceit'

Casino_Royale

Unless the odds are very generous, I'm almost always a layer of Boris.

rcs1000

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

I think Davis is unlikely:

If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.

If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.

I'd be laying him and Boris.

rcs1000

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

SquareRoot

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

DavidL

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

daodao

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

And it's a natural fit - both are conservative and unionist parties.

DecrepitJohnL

daodao said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Ah, but when will there be a vacancy? With the DUP deal in place, the government is roughly where it was before the election, and Theresa May might be expected to step down before the next one is due in 2022. The two-year session looks like a clever, Osbornesque trick to avoid or at least postpone trouble. If I were a backbench Conservative MP, I might as well keep hold of nurse, since neither Hammond nor Davies is offering much that is different, and nor is Boris for that matter.

So no bet for me until there is a vacancy. An honourable Prime Minister might feel obliged to step down after leading the party into an unnecessary and disastrous election, but Theresa May is no Lord Carrington or even an Estelle Morris who at least had the brains to recognise she was out of her depth and the courage to do something about it.

May isn't dishonorable by not stepping down now. She has sorted out a deal with another party with sound conservative and unionist values, together with a sensible QS under the circumstances, which will enable the government to function effectively over the next 2 years and deliver Brexit. The time for her to go is between late Spring and late Autumn 2019; if she hangs on beyond then, that would be squatting in 10 Downing Street. Hopefully, other potential candidates will emerge by then.

The Tories shouldn't do anything to help trigger a GE until Corbyn is over 70 (on 26th May 2019) and beyond his sell-by-date. The date of the next GE should be the first Thursday in May 2020, as originally scheduled.

Honour might be in the eye of the beholder but the Prime Minister ought, in my view, to accept responsibility for throwing away the government's majority, firstly by calling the election in the first place, and then for fighting it so badly. Sacking a pair of SpAds doesn't cut it and calls to mind Jeremy Thorpe on Macmillan: Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life.

That said, I do not expect a new leader would make any great difference to the affairs of state but just feel, now the DUP deal is in place, the Prime Minister should do the right thing.

SquareRoot

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

freetochoose

The thread header disappoints me, I like Boris. We need a bit of fun to remind us what a miserable, state dependent country we're becoming. And I haven't seen any pics of the Bullingdon club for a while either, there's nothing the lefties like more than grizzling about posh boys trashing restaurants and getting Daddy to foot the bill. I'm nostalgic for class warfare.

SouthamObserver

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Why don't you trust the people?

freetochoose

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Yes, we need to spend as much taxpayer's money as we can to stop Labour.

That seems to be the Conservative Party motto these days, its very depressing.

logical_song

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

In a democracy elections are not out of the question. In a world with Trump as President, Corbyn as PM is not unthinkable. Bad, but not unthinkable.

SouthamObserver

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

I think Davis is unlikely:

If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.

If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.

I'd be laying him and Boris.

The Tories need someone to emerge from somewhere. Hammond could do a stop-gap job, but the paucity of unifying, pragmatic, smart Tory talent is becoming more obvious by the day. Boris and Davis appeal to certain kinds of Tory. But, like Corbynistas, there are not enough of them to win.

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

I think Davis is unlikely:

If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.

If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.

I'd be laying him and Boris.

I think that's fair. Davis last great public service role will be delivering Brexit.

SouthamObserver

The Sun says ...
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3889508/theresa-may-dup-deal-confidence-and-supply-24-3billion/amp/

AlastairMeeks

Boris Johnson might actually be value at present. He'll probably be in the mix when Theresa May steps down.

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

I think Davis is unlikely:

If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.

If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.

I'd be laying him and Boris.

I think that's fair. Davis last great public service role will be delivering Brexit.

Great might be pushing it.

freetochoose

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris Johnson might actually be value at present. He'll probably be in the mix when Theresa May steps down.

Yes, the one thing certain about Boris is he wants the job, not sure how many others do.

Didn't he plan on being ruler of the world at one time?

RochdalePioneers

May is a genius, demolishing Tory shibboleths one at a time. The latest one - there is a magic money tree. There is an alternative when their friends require cash and next time they criticise any opposition spending proposal the bucket of cash for the DUP will be wheeled out

OldKingCole

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris Johnson might actually be value at present. He'll probably be in the mix when Theresa May steps down.

Yes, the one thing certain about Boris is he wants the job, not sure how many others do.

Didn't he plan on being ruler of the world at one time?

Was that because, like Cameron ‘he thought he’d be rather good at it”?

eristdoof

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

The absolute amount is not so relevant. So much was agressively cut in the last two Conservative governments often for amounts much much less than 1bn and now suddenly when it is politically convenient a "money tree" can be found. The Conservative claims to "fiscal responsibility" are now shredded.

rkrkrk

I think May could last a few years like this. Strong polling for Corbyn is her friend at the moment. I don't see why Bojo or Davis would be in a great rush to replace her.

freetochoose

OldKingCole said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris Johnson might actually be value at present. He'll probably be in the mix when Theresa May steps down.

Yes, the one thing certain about Boris is he wants the job, not sure how many others do.

Didn't he plan on being ruler of the world at one time?

Was that because, like Cameron ‘he thought he’d be rather good at it”?

Yeah probably.

I like toffs, they add to the gaiety of the nation, but seeing one of them slip on a banana skin is hilarious. Let's face it, would you rather have a drink with Jacob Rees Mogg or John McDonnell?

TOPPING

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

If the Cons think that they are the best people to govern the UK and that Lab would be a disaster for the country then it was their absolute duty to ensure the Cons became the party of government.

The £1bn was a very small cost to achieve this greater good.

Sean_F

SouthamObserver said:

The Sun says ...
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3889508/theresa-may-dup-deal-confidence-and-supply-24-3billion/amp/

I have a lot of sympathy with Mark Littlewood, but the voters delivered a pretty clear verdict about the triple lock and WFA.

Sean_F

freetochoose said:

OldKingCole said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris Johnson might actually be value at present. He'll probably be in the mix when Theresa May steps down.

Yes, the one thing certain about Boris is he wants the job, not sure how many others do.

Didn't he plan on being ruler of the world at one time?

Was that because, like Cameron ‘he thought he’d be rather good at it”?

Yeah probably.

I like toffs, they add to the gaiety of the nation, but seeing one of them slip on a banana skin is hilarious. Let's face it, would you rather have a drink with Jacob Rees Mogg or John McDonnell?

The former. The latter would probably knee me in the balls.

JosiasJessop

freetochoose said:

OldKingCole said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris Johnson might actually be value at present. He'll probably be in the mix when Theresa May steps down.

Yes, the one thing certain about Boris is he wants the job, not sure how many others do.

Didn't he plan on being ruler of the world at one time?

Was that because, like Cameron ‘he thought he’d be rather good at it”?

Yeah probably.

I like toffs, they add to the gaiety of the nation, but seeing one of them slip on a banana skin is hilarious. Let's face it, would you rather have a drink with Jacob Rees Mogg or John McDonnell?

Neither. Rees-Mogg would be too busy talking about himself, and McDonnell - like Corbyn - wouldn't be interested in hearing differing views.

Essexit

RochdalePioneers said:

May is a genius, demolishing Tory shibboleths one at a time. The latest one - there is a magic money tree. There is an alternative when their friends require cash and next time they criticise any opposition spending proposal the bucket of cash for the DUP will be wheeled out

*for Northern Ireland

Nigelb

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

FF43

I believe if there is a membership vote involving Davis, he will win it.

Recidivist

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

I think Davis is unlikely:

If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.

If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.

I'd be laying him and Boris.

I think that's fair. Davis last great public service role will be delivering Brexit.

Great might be pushing it.

Not sure it counts as service either.

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

To be fair to Grant Shapps, he does know how to run a Tory majority winning general election campaign, unlike Mrs May.

foxinsoxuk

rkrkrk said:

I think May could last a few years like this. Strong polling for Corbyn is her friend at the moment. I don't see why Bojo or Davis would be in a great rush to replace her.

If there is one thing about BoJo that we know it is that he wants the job.

I don't think DD does, he seems to like his existing role deciding our future outside the EU.

Bojo is the only Tory who can compete with Jezza for the youth vote. He has charisma and speaking ability. The others can only preach to the converted, and then only to part of the congregation.

PClipp

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

To be fair to Grant Shapps, he does know how to run a Tory majority winning general election campaign, unlike Mrs May.

Only by cheating though....

foxinsoxuk

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

To be fair to Grant Shapps, he does know how to run a Tory majority winning general election campaign, unlike Mrs May.

He does seem to be another one of May's unnecessary enemies, now coming back to haunt her.

NickPalmer

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Democracy, dangerous thing, you feel? Better to use public money for party advantage than to risk voters having another say?

You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?

Luckyguy1983

Davis please, thanks.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

I think Davis is unlikely:

If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.

If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.

I'd be laying him and Boris.

I think that's fair. Davis last great public service role will be delivering Brexit.

Great might be pushing it.

Given the circs, to borrow a phrase, who would you rather have delivering it?

JosiasJessop

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Democracy, dangerous thing, you feel? Better to use public money for party advantage than to risk voters having another say?

You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?

Brown's diarrhetic economic splurges were not just for the advantage of the Labour Party, but to aid his own electoral chances.

Where was your concern for the public purse when you trotted through the lobbies ?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Dr. Foxinsox, Davis is in the odd position of having an incredibly important but also temporary job. If he screws it up, PM hopes are gone, and riding both horses at once might be impossible. It could be quite effective (potentially, anyway) to have almost a co-leader approach, with Davis mostly handling our EU departure on his own, and Hammond focusing on the domestic agenda.

I've backed Hammond for this.

TwistedFireStopper

I suppose that the deal with the DUP was the only game in town that could at least provide the illusion of stability, but that billion quid load of pork is going to come back and bite the Tories on their arse time and again.

Monksfield

Interesting discussion about cash in the news today.

The minute cash is no longer a factor the bank, and potentially by extension others, will know how and where you spend every penny. People see this as a good thing?

Funny how this isn't pointed out in the discussion.

Alistair

CarlottaVance said:

Its only when you see HMSQE against something else can you fully appreciate the size of the ship:

twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712

Any planes for reference?

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

I think Davis is unlikely:

If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.

If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.

I'd be laying him and Boris.

I think that's fair. Davis last great public service role will be delivering Brexit.

Great might be pushing it.

Given the circs, to borrow a phrase, who would you rather have delivering it?

Keir Starmer.

Davis is winging it and is religious on Brexit.

Jonathan

Luckyguy1983 said:

Davis please, thanks.

+1

MarqueeMark

PClipp said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

To be fair to Grant Shapps, he does know how to run a Tory majority winning general election campaign, unlike Mrs May.

Only by cheating though....

Tell me how his cheating differed from the Labour cheating and the LibDem cheating, in that they were each fined by the Electoral Commission.

Or are you still trying to make hay about the battle bus? You know, the one where there were no charges, so everyone is innocent in the eyes of the law? Except for that higher legal force, snide LibDems gits.....

Pong

I'm not convinced that this dup deal is better than no deal at all, for the tory party.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Observer, if Starmer were negotiating we'd already have agreement on citizens abroad, because Starmer wanted to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens the right to stay here and leave British citizens in the EU on their own.

SouthamObserver

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, if Starmer were negotiating we'd already have agreement on citizens abroad, because Starmer wanted to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens the right to stay here and leave British citizens in the EU on their own.

The UK is proposing a reciprocal deal that would reduce the rights of UK citizens.

The British people have just given a majority of their votes to parties advocating unilateral UK action on EU citizens' rights.

Yorkcity

Maydup 1 Scotwaleseng 0. Early goal replay required to see if an own goal.No offside given.

AlastairMeeks

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Democracy, dangerous thing, you feel? Better to use public money for party advantage than to risk voters having another say?

You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?

The voters just had their say. What's wrong with trying to make what they said work? The public delivered a clear message to all of the parties. It's very telling that the first reaction of all the politicians is to assume the public got it wrong in some way.

OchEye

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Its only when you see HMSQE against something else can you fully appreciate the size of the ship:

twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712

Any planes for reference?

+1

Jonathan

Problem with Davis is that he is as mad as a box of frogs.

At some point I fully expect to read that David Davis resigned his own seat in protest to his own policy.

rkrkrk

foxinsoxuk said:

rkrkrk said:

I think May could last a few years like this. Strong polling for Corbyn is her friend at the moment. I don't see why Bojo or Davis would be in a great rush to replace her.

If there is one thing about BoJo that we know it is that he wants the job.

I don't think DD does, he seems to like his existing role deciding our future outside the EU.

Bojo is the only Tory who can compete with Jezza for the youth vote. He has charisma and speaking ability. The others can only preach to the converted, and then only to part of the congregation.

Yes.

Not clear to me Davis wants it - which is why I'm tempted to lay.

At the moment I'm green on Hammond, Hunt and Rory Stewart.
But I've got this market wrong a lot in the past (far too bullish on George Osborne for the most part) so am wary...

OchEye

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

surbiton said:

Let's see what Arlene has got for Northern Ireland: £1billion

Equivalent to the UK receiving £36billion in per capita terms.

Its peanuts in comparison to Labour's 156 billion defecit

Also small relative to the amount the UK spends on aid to poorer EU countries each year.

Although on a per capita basis...

...its a lot smaller than was being touted and it provides stable Govt .. cheap.

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

If the Cons think that they are the best people to govern the UK and that Lab would be a disaster for the country then it was their absolute duty to ensure the Cons became the party of government.

The £1bn was a very small cost to achieve this greater good.

And the Saintly Theresa had the Key to the Secret Garden all the time, hidden her pocketeesss...

Jonathan

Curious that Gove is not on the chart.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect May will stay until the Brexit deal has been agreed, then stand down. Davis chances will hinge upon how well the deal is perceived - and we've got another 18 months to see who else emerges as a potential leader. I'm not sure the Tories will want to experiment again with a 'safe pair of hands whose a bit dull' leader......

I think Davis is unlikely:

If it's an early leadership contest, then - so long as Davis is doing well - there won't be a desire to change the Brexit team through his promotion. And if the Brexit negotiations are doing poorly, then he is damaged goods.

If it's a 2019/2020 (or later) contest, that Davis has the risk of being blamed for any Brexit (or otherwise induced) recession, as well as being in his 70s.

I'd be laying him and Boris.

I think that's fair. Davis last great public service role will be delivering Brexit.

Great might be pushing it.

Given the circs, to borrow a phrase, who would you rather have delivering it?

Keir Starmer.

Davis is winging it and is religious on Brexit.

While Labour's position appears to be a Johnsonian 'Having Cake & Eating it' - that's perfectly fine if you're in opposition, not so much use in negotiation....

CarlottaVance

AlastairMeeks said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Democracy, dangerous thing, you feel? Better to use public money for party advantage than to risk voters having another say?

You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?

The voters just had their say. What's wrong with trying to make what they said work? The public delivered a clear message to all of the parties. It's very telling that the first reaction of all the politicians is to assume the public got it wrong in some way.

Quite. As Mrs May found out, voters do not necessarily look kindly on being asked more frequently than necessary.

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Democracy, dangerous thing, you feel? Better to use public money for party advantage than to risk voters having another say?

You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?

The voters just had their say. What's wrong with trying to make what they said work? The public delivered a clear message to all of the parties. It's very telling that the first reaction of all the politicians is to assume the public got it wrong in some way.

Indeed. They didn't trust the Conservatives with a majority, and didn't trust Labour in power.

Trying to engineer an election on the basis that they got it wrong would probably turn out badly.

The_Apocalypse

foxinsoxuk said:

rkrkrk said:

I think May could last a few years like this. Strong polling for Corbyn is her friend at the moment. I don't see why Bojo or Davis would be in a great rush to replace her.

If there is one thing about BoJo that we know it is that he wants the job.

I don't think DD does, he seems to like his existing role deciding our future outside the EU.

Bojo is the only Tory who can compete with Jezza for the youth vote. He has charisma and speaking ability. The others can only preach to the converted, and then only to part of the congregation.

I would have said that about Boris before Brexit. Now, I don't see him appealing very much to my generation.

another_richard

Are people really wittering about a billion quid ?

Its a trivial amount compared to the money thrown away so Cameron could play Lord Bountiful:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors

And at least the DUP money will be spent in this country.

JosiasJessop

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Its only when you see HMSQE against something else can you fully appreciate the size of the ship:

twitter.com/HMSPWLS/status/879472364249075712

Any planes for reference?

Not yet, as it's just starting sea trials. Then they'll have to start relearning flight ops, starting with rotary-wing and then onto warplanes.

The_Apocalypse

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

To be fair to Grant Shapps, he does know how to run a Tory majority winning general election campaign, unlike Mrs May.

He does seem to be another one of May's unnecessary enemies, now coming back to haunt her.

It seems she didn't like nearly all of the Cameroons. Osborne is one thing, but to make enemies of so many of them was a bad idea.

GideonWise

You get the impression the Corbynistas are somewhat rattled this morning. From zero expectations just two months ago, they realised they had a small but tantalising chance of an unbelievable outcome. But it failed. How painful for them to contemplate five more years after they started to truly believe that JezWeCan.

rkrkrk

Jonathan said:

Curious that Gove is not on the chart.

Gove and Hunt surely have a better chance than Prit Patel.

Morris_Dancer

Ms. Apocalypse, sound point on Boris.

Mr. Observer, if we'd had a referendum on EU citizens in the UK that would be a relevant point.

Party power is determined by MPs, not votes.

Monksfield

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Democracy, dangerous thing, you feel? Better to use public money for party advantage than to risk voters having another say?

You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?

The voters just had their say. What's wrong with trying to make what they said work? The public delivered a clear message to all of the parties. It's very telling that the first reaction of all the politicians is to assume the public got it wrong in some way.

Indeed. They didn't trust the Conservatives with a majority, and didn't trust Labour in power.

Trying to engineer an election on the basis that they got it wrong would probably turn out badly.

Agree, the vote was a rejection of posturing and hard Brexit willy waving. People, and especially the younger voters who will be more directly affected, utterly rejected the vision of May, Davies, Bozo and Fox.

As for Corbyn's vote, people clearly want a deal which protects their jobs, their services and their rights. They want an end to austerity and above all they want proper pay rises, not changes to income tax thresholds paid for by demolition of the services they use.

Let's hope Theresa got these messages. But I'm not holding my breath.

OchEye

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

To be fair to Grant Shapps, he does know how to run a Tory majority winning general election campaign, unlike Mrs May.

Michael Green also knows how to run an er!, interesting internet promotion, or two......

CD13

I think most people want to stay in the common market part of the EU. We went in on that basis. However this is negotiation not capitulation. The EU may decide that is only possible if you accept all the other strictures involved with the EU. Some in Labour (and other parties) will be happy with that. But that is not Leaving.

The demand for everyone to have their say, including strong Remainers is akin to a family deciding to move to a new house in London even though one or two are reluctant. If they let everyone have their input, I'm sure some will demand ...

"It must be in Mayfair, it must have a field for the horse, it must have a stream running through it, and it must cost less than £100k."

"The seller might want more."

"Doesn't matter, that's what we want as a minimum."

And they expect to be taken seriously?

another_richard

AlastairMeeks said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

Come on, its a disgrace, a distortion of public spending to benefit one small part of the United Kingdom which already receives considerably more than its fair share to buy votes. You can make the case that the alternatives were worse or even that is the way that politics is but it is using public money for party advantage and it is a disgrace.

Too flowery with your language. Its not ideal but its needed. Another election is out of the question. Corbyn as PM is unthinkable.

Democracy, dangerous thing, you feel? Better to use public money for party advantage than to risk voters having another say?

You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?

The voters just had their say. What's wrong with trying to make what they said work? The public delivered a clear message to all of the parties. It's very telling that the first reaction of all the politicians is to assume the public got it wrong in some way.

I think the clear message the public delivered is that everyone wants more money given to them and they want someone else to pay for it.

JosiasJessop

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

To be fair to Grant Shapps, he does know how to run a Tory majority winning general election campaign, unlike Mrs May.

He does seem to be another one of May's unnecessary enemies, now coming back to haunt her.

It seems she didn't like nearly all of the Cameroons. Osborne is one thing, but to make enemies of so many of them was a bad idea.

It might not be that she didn't like them personally, although that certainly seems to be the case with one or two. It might be that she felt a break with the past and the austerity years was best, and she also might have been concerned that some may have been more interested in aiding others rather than herself.

In some ways it doesn't matter, as the end results been hideous for her whatever her reasoning.

JackW

another_richard said:

Are people really wittering about a billion quid ?

Its a trivial amount compared to the money thrown away so Cameron could play Lord Bountiful:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors

And at least the DUP money will be spent in this country.

Planned Overseas Aid = Bad
Unplanned Ulster Bung = Good

What's a billion quid or rather approx £24bn between the new bosom pals of the Con/DUP APP ?

OchEye

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

Curious that Gove is not on the chart.

Gove and Hunt surely have a better chance than Prit Patel.

Gove has the most "Want to Slap" face in Westminster, and Hunt is so toxic that most people pronounce his name with a C instead of an H.

Pulpstar

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

Labour leader.

There are plenty to lay, and McDonnell at 29/46 to back. Seeing as how the hard left have control of the Labour party that looks better to me than Cooper @ 9-1 (Who I have just laid a touch)

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/879599011841409025

rcs1000

Regarding the DUP deal, I do wonder if there is a longer term risk to British democracy.

(Hear me out.)

If I were an ambitious, sensible and smart leader of the Scottish nationalists, I would be thinking less about Scottish independence and more about Scottish pork. Bringing government spending to Scotland would seem to be a surer route to re-election than another referendum. "Only we will stand up for Scottish interests, and only we can bring jobs to Scotland" is a pretty effective rallying cry.

Now imagine you were sitting in Cornwall. It's another poorer part of the UK, with strong regional identity. It even has an existing nationalist party. Perhaps it could run candidates that would stand up and bring pork to Cornwall? The LibDems and Labour Party are weak there, and someone standing up for local interests who could bring a billion pounds to the region... well that would look pretty attractive.

I suspect I'm wrong. But if regionalism - and begger thy neighbour politics - is seen to pay, then we will get more of it. This is not a good thing.

MikeSmithson

MarqueeMark said:

PClipp said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

It is a measure of how utterly diminished May is that her unnecessary election campaign was convincingly taken apart this morning on R4 by..... Grant Shapps.

To be fair to Grant Shapps, he does know how to run a Tory majority winning general election campaign, unlike Mrs May.

Only by cheating though....

Tell me how his cheating differed from the Labour cheating and the LibDem cheating, in that they were each fined by the Electoral Commission.

Or are you still trying to make hay about the battle bus? You know, the one where there were no charges, so everyone is innocent in the eyes of the law? Except for that higher legal force, snide LibDems gits.....

If you'd read the EC report on the each party you would not have made such a ludicrous statement.

rcs1000

Quiz question. Who was the last British MP to be called Hannibal?

CornishJohn

Monksfield said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

Democracy, dangerous thing, you feel? Better to use public money for party advantage than to risk voters having another say?

You must be one of those extremist sympathisers I read about. A Hamas supporter, perhaps?

The voters just had their say. What's wrong with trying to make what they said work? The public delivered a clear message to all of the parties. It's very telling that the first reaction of all the politicians is to assume the public got it wrong in some way.

Indeed. They didn't trust the Conservatives with a majority, and didn't trust Labour in power.

Trying to engineer an election on the basis that they got it wrong would probably turn out badly.

Agree, the vote was a rejection of posturing and hard Brexit willy waving. People, and especially the younger voters who will be more directly affected, utterly rejected the vision of May, Davies, Bozo and Fox.

As for Corbyn's vote, people clearly want a deal which protects their jobs, their services and their rights. They want an end to austerity and above all they want proper pay rises, not changes to income tax thresholds paid for by demolition of the services they use.

Let's hope Theresa got these messages. But I'm not holding my breath.

It's a funny coincidence that the message delivered by the electorate is always so consistent with the political preferences of those interpreting the message.

Theresa May made clear her commitment to leave the single market and to have a tough negotiation months ago. Those views were broadcast widely. The election conversation was all about Brexit for the first few weeks. During that time she was polling in the high 40s.

Then the manifesto was released, and the conversation turned to social care and winter fuel payments. At that point the Conservative poll numbers fell to the low 40s. The beneficiary was a Labour Party that had also committed to leaving the single market, but was strongly against the changes to social care and winter fuel payment.

The two parties vigorously campaigning against a hard Brexit, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP, slumped for the whole campaign.

This is a rejection of a hard Brexit apparently.