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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    Pop quiz.....which (non trivial) bits of Barnier's remarks did Laura K leave out?

    "The UK has decided to leave the EU - it's not the other way round….the consequences are substantial…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/40335399

    I cheated:

    So, we each have to assume our responsibility and the consequences of our decisions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    I wonder if Southern train drivers who've turned down £75,000 will be in favour of socialism?

    I'd be tempted to apply if I was living down south !
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    GeoffM said:

    We now have an unprecedented situation for Britain and possibly for any Western democracy with a first past the post system. [snip]

    In the nicest possible way, without any spacing or basic layout that is unreadable.

    Slightly less nicely, I ploughed through it anyway and it was unreadable for other reasons too.
    Fair point about the layout, I'll blame the heat I think I did go into rambling essay mode.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    JackW said:

    Final French Parliamentary Results - ERM Maj 123 - Full Results :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40178118

    Perhaps you should explain what Maj means.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756
    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    The mission is to bring down the government which Brexit means Brexit Tory MPs will do by themselves. There is no Tory majority regardless of the DUP because there are sizeable factions on both wings who will vote against the other. Yes they'll support confidence motions. But I suspect theyll support little else.

    And the same goes for a very Minority Corbyn260 government. It'll be an early election

    *This is politics. Mad things happen. Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it impossible

    You're contradicting yourself. If Tories will support confidence motions, then there'll be no early election.

    I know wishful thinking is the left's stock in trade, but this really is getting boring. There will be no early election.
    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:

    According to the Sunday Times, Julian Brazier spent about a third of the election campaign in the Eltham constituency which the Tories were hoping to win from Labour. The Labour majority went up massively there, and he also lost his own seat in Canterbury by a tiny margin.

    Then I don't think Jim Messina's alleged final prediction of c. 300 seats was taken very seriously, if it indeed existed.
    That Standard article was a transparent attempt to dump all the blame on the two who got fired (resigned). There is no evidence whatsoever that anyone at CCHQ expected not to win.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if Southern train drivers who've turned down £75,000 will be in favour of socialism?

    I'd be tempted to apply if I was living down south !
    You probably can't. What they'd say is, move up north, get a job with Northern driving the Pacers and then come back to us in a few years time after they've paid to train you up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tlg86 said:

    Pop quiz.....which (non trivial) bits of Barnier's remarks did Laura K leave out?

    "The UK has decided to leave the EU - it's not the other way round….the consequences are substantial…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/40335399

    I cheated:

    So, we each have to assume our responsibility and the consequences of our decisions.
    I thought this bit non-trivial, given all the wittering about "soft" Brexit:

    The United Kingdom is going to leave the European Union, single market and the customs union,
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Jonathan said:

    JackW said:

    Final French Parliamentary Results - ERM Maj 123 - Full Results :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40178118

    Perhaps you should explain what Maj means.
    It's the equivalent to a Lieutenant Commander in the Senior Service.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    tlg86 said:

    Pop quiz.....which (non trivial) bits of Barnier's remarks did Laura K leave out?

    "The UK has decided to leave the EU - it's not the other way round….the consequences are substantial…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/40335399

    I cheated:

    So, we each have to assume our responsibility and the consequences of our decisions.
    I thought this bit non-trivial, given all the wittering about "soft" Brexit:

    The United Kingdom is going to leave the European Union, single market and the customs union,
    Fair point! That was quite interesting too.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    AndyJS said:

    According to the Sunday Times, Julian Brazier spent about a third of the election campaign in the Eltham constituency which the Tories were hoping to win from Labour. The Labour majority went up massively there, and he also lost his own seat in Canterbury by a tiny margin.

    Not the only one.

    Victoria Borwick was campaigning in Twickenham and incredibly Hammersmith with 10 days to go.

    Nicky Morgan seemed to spend half the campaign in Nottingham South (lab maj 15,000) but didn't give any support to her mate Soubry in Broxtowe (Con maj 800).

    They really had no idea.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    The mission is to bring down the government which Brexit means Brexit Tory MPs will do by themselves. There is no Tory majority regardless of the DUP because there are sizeable factions on both wings who will vote against the other. Yes they'll support confidence motions. But I suspect theyll support little else.

    And the same goes for a very Minority Corbyn260 government. It'll be an early election

    *This is politics. Mad things happen. Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it impossible

    You're contradicting yourself. If Tories will support confidence motions, then there'll be no early election.

    I know wishful thinking is the left's stock in trade, but this really is getting boring. There will be no early election.
    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
    If Major had fallen early, he would have been replaced by Kinnock, Smith or Blair. Hardly the end of the world.

    You are suggesting that Tory rebels would let a man into Downing Street who has no respect for the rule of law and openly sympathises with terrorist groups.

    You clearly know nothing about what motivates people to join the Tory Party. Much easier to just think we're evil monsters who hate the poor.

    Much easier!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:



    If May was defeated in a vote of confidence, she would not pack her bags and leave immediately. Rather, she would remain (as Brown did in May 2010 while the Coalition was being formed) until somebody was in a position to go to the Queen with a realistic offer to form a Government commanding the confidence of the House. The strong likelihood would be that the someone would be a new Tory leader who could do a deal as necessary to pass a confidence motion. Or it might be May herself. If 14 days passed following a no confidence vote with no subsequent, successful confidence vote, there would be an election.

    Crucially, Corbyn doesn't get to walk into Downing Street on the off-chance he may be able to form a Government from there just because he's leader of the Official Opposition. He has to actually be able to do it to get the keys. The only way for that to happen would be would be (i) if he had either formed a coalition deal with the SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and DUP; or (ii) if the Tories confirmed they'd abstain in a confidence motion effectively handing in the keys.

    Neither of these are even remotely plausible. There are dangers for the SNP in a flaky coalition, the Lib Dems have already said "no", and the DUP practically invented the word "NO" for people like JC. Meanwhile, for the Tories it would mean going back on everything they've said about the dangers of Corbyn.

    So it's either a fresh election or nothing - it's fantasy land to think Labour could form any sort of government on the June result.

    It can only happen if sufficient tory MP's felt so stongly that their reasons for defecting or voting againstthe QS outwieghed thier party loyalty. I cant envisage any circumstaces short of a "Suez" type debaclewhich could bring it about, it makes a thread like this good for entertainment but off the scale in probability. Evan if Rees Mogg and co dont get they want they wont let corbyn in.
    Quite. The maddest of Hard Tory Brexiteers wouldn't bring down this government and risk Corbyn as prime minister.

    Paradoxically, Corbyn's good showing in the GE will have united the Tories: in outright dread of a Marxist Labour victory.

    There's a very good chance this government will last to 2020 or beyond.
    You may be right. But its fundamental illegitimacy will be the final undoing of the Conservatives at next GE.

    There is no comparison with the 2010 deal, two parties forming a coalition from opposition with the smaller being a national party with 50+ seats and nearly a quarter of the GB vote, and the 2017 position with ten of the least moderate unionists from the back end of the kingdom with not even 1% of the UK vote propping up a newly defeated government.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    The mission is to bring down the government which Brexit means Brexit Tory MPs will do by themselves. There is no Tory majority regardless of the DUP because there are sizeable factions on both wings who will vote against the other. Yes they'll support confidence motions. But I suspect theyll support little else.

    And the same goes for a very Minority Corbyn260 government. It'll be an early election

    *This is politics. Mad things happen. Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it impossible

    You're contradicting yourself. If Tories will support confidence motions, then there'll be no early election.

    I know wishful thinking is the left's stock in trade, but this really is getting boring. There will be no early election.
    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
    I think that's right. The PB Tory "We'll Go On and On" wing tend to be youthful I think, I'd venture that many of them are too young to remember the shambles of the mid 1990s. Now, in a technical sense, they are right - the May zombie government can limp on with qualified DUP support indefinitely, but it will struggle to pass laws. McDonnell knows the game is afoot so I'd expect him to pack the house and - probably - abandon pairing on the point of principle that the government itself is not playing cricket by running scared of an autumn poll, when May went to the country with a question and got an answer. The Liberals have no incentive to prop up a euroshambling Tory party, indeed I would expect them to gain seats if there was an autumn election. Then we have the outside chance of Sinn Fein popping in at any moment if they think their votes might bring down the government and/or secure a border poll. We will of course be assured this is impossible. Trump and Brexit were impossible once.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    Having just watched Rees Mogg on skt news he believes leaving the EU is easy and not at all complicated so there's no need toworry or be concerned. I must have missed something along the way or he just has a superior intellect to my meagre brain.

    Yes
    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    There are two reasons why this is sub-optimal.

    The first issue is that the EU has trade relations with almost all of our biggest trading partners, and a disorganised exit would (negatively) reset our trade arrangements with these countries too.

    The EU has trade agreements - not necessarily complete FTAs, but agreements that cover mutual recognition of standards, double taxation, rules on re-export, etc. - with the world's largest economies. There are treaties between the EU and the US, the EU and China, the EU and Australia and the EU and New Zealand, for example. There are also a lot of EU free trade deals: Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, Morocco, Israel, South Africa and a host of other places.

    If we crash out of the EU with no agreements in place, we need to open negotiations with all these countries too. I know it's tempting to say "oh, these guys will all want free trade agreements with us", and that's probably true. But FTAs typically take a long-time to negotiate: I am always amused that the China-Maldive FTA - which should be the simplest agreement on the planet - is in its sixth year of negotiations.

    Secondly, I think people forget how international supply chains are these days. Pick up any consumer product (or look at your car). Some bits will have crossed international boundaries a dozen times, as copper was mined, refined, spun, put into a part, that was made into a component, that was sent to final assembly, before heading to a distribution centre, and finally arriving in the UK. Tariffs cannot simply be "made up" by devaluation, as devaluation makes importing components more expensive. If something went from Germany to the UK to France then it might be cheaper (given the possibility of tariffs upon tariffs) for it to stay inside the EU. (And even if the tariffs are eliminated, remember that firms like to run with essentially zero inventory. If there's one supplier where things sit waiting for a customs inspection for two days, that will negatively impact it.)

    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    The mission is to bring down the government which Brexit means Brexit Tory MPs will do by themselves. There is no Tory majority regardless of the DUP because there are sizeable factions on both wings who will vote against the other. Yes they'll support confidence motions. But I suspect theyll support little else.

    And the same goes for a very Minority Corbyn260 government. It'll be an early election

    *This is politics. Mad things happen. Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it impossible

    You're contradicting yourself. If Tories will support confidence motions, then there'll be no early election.

    I know wishful thinking is the left's stock in trade, but this really is getting boring. There will be no early election.
    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
    If Major had fallen early, he would have been replaced by Kinnock, Smith or Blair. Hardly the end of the world.

    You are suggesting that Tory rebels would let a man into Downing Street who has no respect for the rule of law and openly sympathises with terrorist groups.

    You clearly know nothing about what motivates people to join the Tory Party. Much easier to just think we're evil monsters who hate the poor.

    Much easier!
    One key question is how long the grand illusion that Corbyn and co are just a more honest and radical return to Labour roots can be maintained.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:



    If May was defeated in a vote of confidence, she would not pack her bags and leave immediately. Rather, she would remain (as Brown did in May 2010 while the Coalition was being formed) until somebody was in a position to go to the Queen with a realistic offer to form a Government commanding the confidence of the House. The strong likelihood would be that the election.

    Crucially, Corbyn doesn't get to walk into Downing Street on the off-chance he may be able to form a Government from there just because he's leader of the Official Opposition. He has to actually be able to do it to get the keys. The only way for that to happen would be would be (i) if he had either formed a coalition deal with the SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and DUP; or (ii) if the Tories confirmed they'd abstain in a confidence motion effectively handing in the keys.

    Neither of these are even remotely plausible. There are dangers for the SNP in a flaky coalition, the Lib Dems have already said "no", and the DUP practically invented the word "NO" for people like JC. Meanwhile, for the Tories it would mean going back on everything they've said about the dangers of Corbyn.

    So it's either a fresh election or nothing - it's fantasy land to think Labour could form any sort of government on the June result.

    It can only happen if sufficient tory MP's felt so stongly that their reasons for defecting or voting againstthe QS outwieghed thier party loyalty. I cant envisage any circumstaces short of a "Suez" type debaclewhich could bring it about, it makes a thread like this good for entertainment but off the scale in probability. Evan if Rees Mogg and co dont get they want they wont let corbyn in.
    Quite. The maddest of Hard Tory Brexiteers wouldn't bring down this government and risk Corbyn as prime minister.

    Paradoxically, Corbyn's good showing in the GE will have united the Tories: in outright dread of a Marxist Labour victory.

    There's a very good chance this government will last to 2020 or beyond.
    You may be right. But its fundamental illegitimacy will be the final undoing of the Conservatives at next GE.

    There is no comparison with the 2010 deal, two parties forming a coalition from opposition with the smaller being a national party with 50+ seats and nearly a quarter of the GB vote, and the 2017 position with ten of the least moderate unionists from the back end of the kingdom with not even 1% of the UK vote propping up a newly defeated government.
    The government is hardly illegitimate, unless one assumes it is illegitimate for Northern Ireland to be represented in the Commons.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    You could have added the percentages of the opposition parties to invalidate many governments in history to form a fantasy coalition but its not the way the British system works. The fact remains that all the opposition parties minus the DUP does not give Corbyn a majority of seats and Tory MPs are not going to break rank and vote with his fantasy government. Corbyn lost the election much much more than May lost the election and Corbyn cannot take power without another election and a majority of seats.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    Having just watched Rees Mogg on skt news he believes leaving the EU is easy and not at all complicated so there's no need toworry or be concerned. I must have missed something along the way or he just has a superior intellect to my meagre brain.

    Yes
    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    There are two reasons why this is sub-optimal.

    The first issue is that the EU has trade relations with almost all of our biggest trading partners, and a disorganised exit would (negatively) reset our trade arrangements with these countries too.

    The EU has trade agreements - not necessarily complete FTAs, but agreements that cover mutual recognition of standards, double taxation, rules on re-export, etc. - with the world's largest economies. There are treaties between the EU and the US, the EU and China, the EU and Australia and the EU and New Zealand, for example. There are also a lot of EU free trade deals: Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, Morocco, Israel, South Africa and a host of other places.
    snip

    ed international boundaries a dozen times, as copper was mined, refined, spun, put into a part, that was made into a component, that was sent to final assembly, before heading to a distribution centre, and finally arriving in the UK. Tariffs cannot simply be "made up" by devaluation, as devaluation makes importing components more expensive. If something went from Germany to the UK to France then it might be cheaper (given the possibility of tariffs upon tariffs) for it to stay inside the EU. (And even if the tariffs are eliminated, remember that firms like to run with essentially zero inventory. If there's one supplier where things sit waiting for a customs inspection for two days, that will negatively impact it.)

    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.
    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited June 2017
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:



    If May was defeated in a vote of confidence, she would not pack her bags and leave immediately. Rather, she would remain (as Brown did in May 2010 while the Coalition was being formed) until somebody was in a position to go to the Queen with a realistic offer to form a Government commanding the confidence of the House. The strong likelihood would be that the election.

    Crucially, Corbyn doesn't get to walk into Downing Street on the off-chance he may be able to form a Government from there just because he's leader of the Official Opposition. He has to actually be able to do it to get the keys. The only way for that to happen would be would be (i) if he had either formed a coalition deal with the SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and DUP; or (ii) if the Tories confirmed they'd abstain in a confidence motion effectively handing in the keys.

    Neither of these are even remotely plausible. There are dangers for the SNP in a flaky coalition, the Lib Dems have already said "no", and the DUP practically invented the word "NO" for people like JC. Meanwhile, for the Tories it would mean going back on everything they've said about the dangers of Corbyn.

    So it's either a fresh election or nothing - it's fantasy land to think Labour could form any sort of government on the June result.

    It can only happen if sufficient tory MP's felt so stongly that their reasons for defecting or voting againstthe QS outwieghed thier party loyalty. I cant envisage any circumstaces short of a "Suez" type debaclewhich could bring it about, it makes a thread like this good for entertainment but off the scale in probability. Evan if Rees Mogg and co dont get they want they wont let corbyn in.
    Quite. The maddest of Hard Tory Brexiteers wouldn't bring down this government and risk Corbyn as prime minister.

    Paradoxically, Corbyn's good showing in the GE will have united the Tories: in outright dread of a Marxist Labour victory.

    There's a very good chance this government will last to 2020 or beyond.
    You may be right. But its fundamental illegitimacy will be the final undoing of the Conservatives at next GE.

    There is no comparison with the 2010 deal, two parties forming a coalition from opposition with the smaller being a national party with 50+ seats and nearly a quarter of the GB vote, and the 2017 position with ten of the least moderate unionists from the back end of the kingdom with not even 1% of the UK vote propping up a newly defeated government.
    The government is hardly illegitimate, unless one assumes it is illegitimate for Northern Ireland to be represented in the Commons.
    Ultimately it will be the UK electorate that gets the final say.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.


    Well Labour have chosen a terrorist-loving, Marxist-believing, nutcase for a leader - who would quite literally rip up the country to achieve his aims. It'll take a while for the Tories to beat that...

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    Jonathan said:

    JackW said:

    Final French Parliamentary Results - ERM Maj 123 - Full Results :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40178118

    Perhaps you should explain what Maj means.
    LREM 350/577 seats - Maj 123
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    SeanT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GeoffM said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Corbyn is the hero now and-park-mosque-a3568306.html

    Personality cult.
    I am begiback in business.
    Was there really a surge of youth turnout? I thought it was due to middle aged and older people swinging Labour more than usual?
    I thought there was but not sure why I thought that. But the anecdotal evidence was that if the middle aged were swinging leftward it was on behalf of their children.
    Ironically swinging leftward is the best way to ruin the future of their children.
    You know that and I know that....
    But actually ... I was talking to an undergraduate the other day who said all her friends envied her for being an only child because it meant she might one day own a house. I found that tragic, and if we were to undergo the mother of all recessions it would arguably be a net benefit to that generation, if it came with the mother of all house price crashes
    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, when she was about 14 or 15, there was one street in Tooting which she basically HAD to walk down, to get home from school. Unfortunately, this street was patrolled by lots of Muslim men, mainly young, but some old, and they would sexually harass her continuously.

    And this wasn't just wolf-whistling or cat-calling, it was very aggressive: "come here you slut", "show us your tits you little white whore", "suck my" etc etc. Sometimes she would be grabbed, physically, and teased. And it was ONLY Muslim men that did this. She got unwelcome attention from others, but the really horrible, frightening stuff - it was just Muslim males.

    Recall that my girlfriend is Corbynite, hippychick, feminist, multilcultural. For her to come out and say this about Muslims was, to me, quite shocking

    There is an upside. She and her mum (a very lefty teacher) were so incensed by this behaviour, they went to their local MP, Sadiq Khan. Who was, she says, very understanding and very helpful, seeing her in person several times, and following up with phone calls, and she doesn't know what he did but after she complained the harassment considerably reduced. It didn't stop, but it got noticeably better - though she has no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.
    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.

    First Cable ministry?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:



    If May was defeated in a vote of confidence, she would not pack her bags and leave immediately. Rather, she would remain (as Brown did in May 2010 while the Coalition was being formed) until somebody was in a position to go to the Queen with a realistic offer to form a Government commanding the confidence of the House. The strong likelihood would be that the election.

    Crucially, Corbyn doesn't get to walk into Downing Street on the off-chance he may be able to form a Government from there just because he's leader of the Official Opposition. He has to actually be able to do it to get the keys. The only way for that to happen would be would be (i) if he had either formed a coalition deal with the SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and DUP; or (ii) if the Tories confirmed they'd abstain in

    Neither of these are even remotely plausible. There are dangers for the SNP in a flaky coalition, the Lib Dems have already said "no", and the DUP practically invented the word "NO" for people like JC. Meanwhile, for the Tories it would mean going back on everything they've said about the dangers of Corbyn.

    So it's either a fresh election or nothing - it's fantasy land to think Labour could form any sort of government on the June result.

    It can only happen if sufficient tory MP's felt so stongly that their reasons for defecting or voting againstthe QS outwieghed thier party loyalty. I cant envisage any circumstaces short of a "Suez" type debaclewhich could bring it about, it makes a thread like this good for entertainment but off the scale in probability. Evan if Rees Mogg and co dont get they want they wont let corbyn in.
    Quite. The maddest of Hard Tory Brexiteers wouldn't bring down this government and risk Corbyn as prime minister.

    Paradoxically, Corbyn's good showing in the GE will have united the Tories: in outright dread of a Marxist Labour victory.

    There's a very good chance this government will last to 2020 or beyond.
    You may be right. But its fundamental illegitimacy will be the final undoing of the Conservatives at next GE.

    There is no comparison with the 2010 deal, two parties forming a coalition from opposition with the smaller being a national party with 50+ seats and nearly a quarter of the GB vote, and the 2017 position with ten of the least moderate unionists from the back end of the kingdom with not even 1% of the UK vote propping up a newly defeated government.
    The government is hardly illegitimate, unless one assumes it is illegitimate for Northern Ireland to be represented in the Commons.
    No party other than Labour is legitimate; the rest is false consciousness. Did you not read the Canary this morning?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.


    Well Labour have chosen a terrorist-loving, Marxist-believing, nutcase for a leader - who would quite literally rip up the country to achieve his aims. It'll take a while for the Tories to beat that...

    So that approach was so sucessful on june 8th you think thats all you need to do next time?
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited June 2017
    This thread is utter nonsense. Corbyn cannot form a government because the it would require the DUP to vote agaist the Conservatives first. The are few givens in today's politics but one of them is that the DUP would NEVER allow Corbyn into power.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:



    If May was fantasy land to think Labour could form any sort of government on the June result.

    It can only happen if sufficient tory MP's felt so stongly that their reasons for defecting or voting againstthe QS outwieghed thier party loyalty. I cant envisage any circumstaces short of a "Suez" type debaclewhich could bring it about, it makes a thread like this good for entertainment but off the scale in probability. Evan if Rees Mogg and co dont get they want they wont let corbyn in.
    Quite. The maddest of Hard Tory Brexiteers wouldn't bring down this government and risk Corbyn as prime minister.

    Paradoxically, Corbyn's good showing in the GE will have united the Tories: in outright dread of a Marxist Labour victory.

    There's a very good chance this government will last to 2020 or beyond.
    You may be right. But its fundamental illegitimacy will be the final undoing of the Conservatives at next GE.

    There is no comparison with the 2010 deal, two parties forming a coalition from opposition with the smaller being a national party with 50+ seats and nearly a quarter of the GB vote, and the 2017 position with ten of the least moderate unionists from the back end of the kingdom with not even 1% of the UK vote propping up a newly defeated government.
    The government is hardly illegitimate, unless one assumes it is illegitimate for Northern Ireland to be represented in the Commons.
    Ultimately it will be the UK electorate that gets the final say on that.
    One thing to note: Corbyn is 68. Will the British people really elect him as PM in 2021, say, when he will be 72? A doddery old Trotskyite?

    At some point the weird shine will go off him. Tories just need to hold their nerve, and get a better leader.
    It would also help if they take note of the inter-generational inequality which is the route of the problem and think of some new policies on housing and tuition fees.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    nichomar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.


    Well Labour have chosen a terrorist-loving, Marxist-believing, nutcase for a leader - who would quite literally rip up the country to achieve his aims. It'll take a while for the Tories to beat that...

    So that approach was so sucessful on june 8th you think thats all you need to do next time?

    Corbyn got lucky once. And that's as close as he'll get.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:



    If May was defeated in a vote of confidence, she would not pack her bags and leave immediately. Rather, she would remain (as Brown did in May 2010 while the Coalition was being formed) until somebody was in a position to go to the Queen with a realistic offer to form a Government commanding the confidence of the House. The strong likelihood would be that the election.

    Crucially, Corbyn doesn't get to walk into Downing Street on the off-chance he may be able to form a Government from there just because he's leader of the Official Opposition. He has to actually be able to do it to get the keys. The only way for that to happen would be would be (i) if he had either formed a coalition deal with the SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and DUP; or (ii) if the Tories confirmed they'd abstain in a confidence motion effectively handing in the keys.

    Neither of these are even remotely plausible.

    So it's either a fresh election or nothing - it's fantasy land to think Labour could form any sort of government on the June result.

    It can only happen if sufficient tory MP's felt so stongly that their reasons for defecting or voting againstthe QS outwieghed thier party loyalty. I cant envisage any circumstaces short of a "Suez" type debaclewhich could bring it about, it makes a thread like this good for entertainment but off the scale in probability. Evan if Rees Mogg and co dont get they want they wont let corbyn in.
    Quite. The maddest of Hard Tory Brexiteers wouldn't bring down this government and risk Corbyn as prime minister.

    Paradoxically, Corbyn's good showing in the GE will have united the Tories: in outright dread of a Marxist Labour victory.

    There's a very good chance this government will last to 2020 or beyond.
    You may be right. But its fundamental illegitimacy will be the final undoing of the Conservatives at next GE.

    There is no comparison with the 2010 deal, two parties forming a coalition from opposition with the smaller being a national party with 50+ seats and nearly a quarter of the GB vote, and the 2017 position with ten of the least moderate unionists from the back end of the kingdom with not even 1% of the UK vote propping up a newly defeated government.
    The government is hardly illegitimate, unless one assumes it is illegitimate for Northern Ireland to be represented in the Commons.
    Ultimately it will be the UK electorate that gets the final say.
    I agree, but so long as Northern Ireland is in the UK, its MP's get a say, like Scottish and Welsh MP's.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.


    Well Labour have chosen a terrorist-loving, Marxist-believing, nutcase for a leader - who would quite literally rip up the country to achieve his aims. It'll take a while for the Tories to beat that...

    After a referendum and an election both designed to shore up the Tory party , I think they're in a league if their own when it comes to shambolic buffoonery.


  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.


    Well Labour have chosen a terrorist-loving, Marxist-believing, nutcase for a leader - who would quite literally rip up the country to achieve his aims. It'll take a while for the Tories to beat that...

    After a referendum and an election both designed to shore up the Tory party , I think they're in a league if their own when it comes to shambolic buffoonery.



    Are you complaining that the Tories put democracy above their own party?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    edited June 2017

    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.

    As I have written many times, I do not believe the United Kingdom is a good fit for the EU political project. Ultimately, the EU will either collapse, or end up as a state. (Or most likely, some subset of the EU will end up as a state.)

    We have never been happy with the political project of the EU. Attempting to force the UK to become a part of a federal country called Europe was never going to end well.

    If I made a mistake, it was an assumption that the Conservative government would act rationally and would recognise that exiting the EU was a multi-year journey, and not something best achieved by a stiff upper lip and a 20 month "negotiation".

    My fear, currently, is that the government will come up with a deal that satisfies nobody in 18 months. That this fails to pass the Commons, and that we crash out to Hard Brexit, with no agreements with other countries in place. I suspect this will lead to a substantial drop in investment in the UK, and to the prime London property market being hammered. Given that we already live beyond our means, this will likely lead to a long and serious recession, that will result in Corbyn being elected (Syriza-like) with a large majority to destroy the country further.

    Basically, I'm petrified by the stupidity of our politicians.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116

    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    snip

    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
    I think that's right. The PB Tory "We'll Go On and On" wing tend to be youthful I think, I'd venture that many of them are too young to remember the shambles of the mid 1990s. Now, in a technical sense, they are right - the May zombie government can limp on with qualified DUP support indefinitely, but it will struggle to pass laws. McDonnell knows the game is afoot so I'd expect him to pack the house and - probably - abandon pairing on the point of principle that the government itself is not playing cricket by running scared of an autumn poll, when May went to the country with a question and got an answer. The Liberals have no incentive to prop up a euroshambling Tory party, indeed I would expect them to gain seats if there was an autumn election. Then we have the outside chance of Sinn Fein popping in at any moment if they think their votes might bring down the government and/or secure a border poll. We will of course be assured this is impossible. Trump and Brexit were impossible once.
    Imagine you are the PM, the only person in the country who can throw in the towel on the QS and give Corbyn a shot. Do you? No.

    Imagine you are JC, the most likely person in the country to go to HMQ in the event of the above. Can you command a majority? No.

    Imagine you are the PM, the only person in the country who can call an early election. Do you? No.

    This parliament has the capacity to be immensely damaging to CON and DUP, but it will last, just like Major 1992 and the Lib-Lab pact lasted.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    Having just watched Rees Mogg on skt news he believes leaving the EU is easy and not at all complicated so there's no need toworry or be concerned. I must have missed something along the way or he just has a superior intellect to my meagre brain.

    Yes
    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    [snip for Vanilla length reasons]

    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.
    That's a superb response and far more detailed than my frivolous "Yes" deserved. And for that I am grateful and the PB commentariat should be too.

    I note from your first sentence, though, that Rees-Mogg is correct and "Yes" is correct in a simple-one-line-Bill sense. And in a stop-being-so-precious-nichomar way too.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253

    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    Having just watched Rees Mogg on skt news he believes leaving the EU is easy and not at all complicated so there's no need toworry or be concerned. I must have missed something along the way or he just has a superior intellect to my meagre brain.

    Yes
    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    There are two reasons why this is sub-optimal.

    The first issue is that the EU has trade relations with almost all of our biggest trading partners, and a disorganised exit would (negatively) reset our trade arrangements with these countries too.

    The EU has trade agreements - not necessarily complete FTAs, but agreements that cover mutual recognition of standards, double taxation, rules on re-export, etc. - with the world's largest economies. There are treaties between the EU and the US, the EU and China, the EU and Australia and the EU and New Zealand, for example. There are also a lot of EU free trade deals: Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, Morocco, Israel, South Africa and a host of other places.
    snip

    ed international boundaries a dozen times, as copper was mined, refined, spun, put into a part, that was made into a component, that was sent to final assembly, before heading to a distribution centre, and finally arriving in the UK. Tariffs cannot simply be "made up" by devaluation, as devaluation makes importing components more expensive. If something went from Germany to the UK to France then it might be cheaper (given the possibility of tariffs upon tariffs) for it to stay inside the EU. (And even if the tariffs are eliminated, remember that firms like to run with essentially zero inventory. If there's one supplier where things sit waiting for a customs inspection for two days, that will negatively impact it.)

    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.
    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.
    Because it is not all about trade and economics. Economically we would be far better off as the 51st state of the US or as a vassal of China. I don't see too many people pushing for those options.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.

    We're thinking of invading Mars.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116
    I said that last bit, not Bobajob. Blockquote doesn't like me today.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    rcs1000 said:

    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.

    As I have written many times, I do not believe the United Kingdom is a good fit for the EU political project. Ultimately, the EU will either collapse, or end up as a state. (Or most likely, some subset of the EU will end up as a state.)

    We have never been happy with the political project of the EU. Attempting to force the UK to become a part of a federal country called Europe was never going to end well.

    If I made a mistake, it was an assumption that the Conservative government would act rationally and would recognise that exiting the EU was a multi-year journey, and not something best achieved by a stiff upper lip and a 20 month "negotiation".

    My fear, currently, is that the government will come up with a deal that satisfies nobody in 18 months. That this fails to pass the Commons, and that we crash out to Hard Brexit, with no agreements with other countries in place. I suspect this will lead to a substantial drop in investment in the UK, and to the prime London property market being hammered. Given that we already live beyond our means, this will likely lead to a long and serious recession, that will result in Corbyn being elected (Syriza-like) with a large majority to destroy the country further.

    Basically, I'm petrified by the stupidity of our politicians.
    A long way of writing "my dad was right". Your philosophical reasons for leaving outweighed by the disastrous consequences of doing so.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    rcs1000 said:


    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    There are two reasons why this is sub-optimal.

    The first issue is that the EU has trade relations with almost all of our biggest trading partners, and a disorganised exit would (negatively) reset our trade arrangements with these countries too.

    The EU has trade agreements - not necessarily complete FTAs, but agreements that cover mutual recognition of standards, double taxation, rules on re-export, etc. - with the world's largest economies. There are treaties between the EU and the US, the EU and China, the EU and Australia and the EU and New Zealand, for example. There are also a lot of EU free trade deals: Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, Morocco, Israel, South Africa and a host of other places.

    If we crash out of the EU with no agreements in place, we need to open negotiations with all these countries too. I know it's tempting to say "oh, these guys will all want free trade agreements with us", and that's probably true. But FTAs typically take a long-time to negotiate: I am always amused that the China-Maldive FTA - which should be the simplest agreement on the planet - is in its sixth year of negotiations.

    Secondly, I think people forget how international supply chains are these days. Pick up any consumer product (or look at your car). Some bits will have crossed international boundaries a dozen times, as copper was mined, refined, spun, put into a part, that was made into a component, that was sent to final assembly, before heading to a distribution centre, and finally arriving in the UK. Tariffs cannot simply be "made up" by devaluation, as devaluation makes importing components more expensive. If something went from Germany to the UK to France then it might be cheaper (given the possibility of tariffs upon tariffs) for it to stay inside the EU. (And even if the tariffs are eliminated, remember that firms like to run with essentially zero inventory. If there's one supplier where things sit waiting for a customs inspection for two days, that will negatively impact it.)

    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.

    I think you should copy this post and keep it to repost when anyone says we should leave without a deal on trade. There are bad deals we should walk away from, but if a trade deal can be done then we should make it happen. I'm pleased by the appointment of Crawford Falconer by DExEU as the main negotiator for our exit. He is exactly what we need.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    The mission is to bring down the government which Brexit means Brexit Tory MPs will do by themselves. There is no Tory majority regardless of the DUP because there are sizeable factions on both wings who will vote against the other. Yes they'll support confidence motions. But I suspect theyll support little else.

    And the same goes for a very Minority Corbyn260 government. It'll be an early election

    *This is politics. Mad things happen. Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it impossible

    You're contradicting yourself. If Tories will support confidence motions, then there'll be no early election.

    I know wishful thinking is the left's stock in trade, but this really is getting boring. There will be no early election.
    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
    Maastricht, which arguably got us into this mess, and created the EU in its current form, was passed under the Major government.

    By one vote.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.

    We're thinking of invading Mars.
    Good idea. Get the bastards before they get us!!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    rcs1000 said:

    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.

    As I have written many times, I do not believe the United Kingdom is a good fit for the EU political project. Ultimately, the EU will either collapse, or end up as a state. (Or most likely, some subset of the EU will end up as a state.)

    We have never been happy with the political project of the EU. Attempting to force the UK to become a part of a federal country called Europe was never going to end well.

    If I made a mistake, it was an assumption that the Conservative government would act rationally and would recognise that exiting the EU was a multi-year journey, and not something best achieved by a stiff upper lip and a 20 month "negotiation".

    My fear, currently, is that the government will come up with a deal that satisfies nobody in 18 months. That this fails to pass the Commons, and that we crash out to Hard Brexit, with no agreements with other countries in place. I suspect this will lead to a substantial drop in investment in the UK, and to the prime London property market being hammered. Given that we already live beyond our means, this will likely lead to a long and serious recession, that will result in Corbyn being elected (Syriza-like) with a large majority to destroy the country further.

    Basically, I'm petrified by the stupidity of our politicians.
    That sounds likely.

    But you never know maybe this time our politicians will surprise on the upside.

    Also, I sent your dad a VM about putting the donate button up again - I think I should contribute a few quid. Can you see if he received it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253

    rcs1000 said:

    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.

    As I have written many times, I do not believe the United Kingdom is a good fit for the EU political project. Ultimately, the EU will either collapse, or end up as a state. (Or most likely, some subset of the EU will end up as a state.)

    We have never been happy with the political project of the EU. Attempting to force the UK to become a part of a federal country called Europe was never going to end well.

    If I made a mistake, it was an assumption that the Conservative government would act rationally and would recognise that exiting the EU was a multi-year journey, and not something best achieved by a stiff upper lip and a 20 month "negotiation".

    My fear, currently, is that the government will come up with a deal that satisfies nobody in 18 months. That this fails to pass the Commons, and that we crash out to Hard Brexit, with no agreements with other countries in place. I suspect this will lead to a substantial drop in investment in the UK, and to the prime London property market being hammered. Given that we already live beyond our means, this will likely lead to a long and serious recession, that will result in Corbyn being elected (Syriza-like) with a large majority to destroy the country further.

    Basically, I'm petrified by the stupidity of our politicians.
    A long way of writing "my dad was right". Your philosophical reasons for leaving outweighed by the disastrous consequences of doing so.
    No that is not what he said at all. And OGH was a very long way from being right.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    SeanT said:


    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, when she was about 14 or 15, there was one street in Tooting which she basically HAD to walk down, to get home from school. Unfortunately, this street was patrolled by lots of Muslim men, mainly young, but some old, and they would sexually harass her continuously.

    And this wasn't just wolf-whistling or cat-calling, it was very aggressive: "come here you slut", "show us your tits you little white whore", "suck my" etc etc. Sometimes she would be grabbed, physically, and teased. And it was ONLY Muslim men that did this. She got unwelcome attention from others, but the really horrible, frightening stuff - it was just Muslim males.

    Recall that my girlfriend is Corbynite, hippychick, feminist, multilcultural. For her to come out and say this about Muslims was, to me, quite shocking

    There is an upside. She and her mum (a very lefty teacher) were so incensed by this behaviour, they went to their local MP, Sadiq Khan. Who was, she says, very understanding and very helpful, seeing her in person several times, and following up with phone calls, and she doesn't know what he did but after she complained the harassment considerably reduced. It didn't stop, but it got noticeably better - though she has no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.


    Well Labour have chosen a terrorist-loving, Marxist-believing, nutcase for a leader - who would quite literally rip up the country to achieve his aims. It'll take a while for the Tories to beat that...

    After a referendum and an election both designed to shore up the Tory party , I think they're in a league if their own when it comes to shambolic buffoonery.



    Are you complaining that the Tories put democracy above their own party?

    They do the opposite of that. They tried to gain party advantage. They tried so, so hard. . But they were shit at it. The Tories are incompetent on a cosmic scale. It would be funny if it didn't have damaging consequences.

    One silver lining. They still do irony well. After the few weeks you have thought they might pause before questioning the ability of others.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Because it is not all about trade and economics. Economically we would be far better off as the 51st state of the US or as a vassal of China. I don't see too many people pushing for those options.

    I'm far from certain that, economically, fighting either of the World Wars was a sane choice, so by that reasoning I'd guess we would already be a vassal of Germany.

    Making constitutional decisions because of economics seems to be the lowest form of decision-making.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    nunuone said:

    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Corbyn is the hero now and May the villain. No matter what she does it will be wrong. Damaged beyond repair.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-mosque-attack-jeremy-corbyn-and-theresa-may-address-worshippers-at-finsbury-park-mosque-a3568306.html

    Personality cult.
    I am beginning to think that the outlook for the Tories is not quite as bad as it might be. Corbyn has star quality - the IRA attack video which I stupidly touted as the Tory secret weapon was watchable because of this - the way he came across in the clips made you think Sean Bean would play him in the biopic. The fact remains though that he is as mad as a meat axe and his cronies are worse, and unless the present big moderate beasts of labour can do a very tricky Vicar of Bray realignment over the summer the party is going to be a very obvious mess by conference time. We know some very useful things from the ge, not least that the young have stopped not voting, and that some pork in the shape of university fee reductions needs directing their way, and that t may makes chocolate fireguards look sternly utilitarian. Fix those points and we are back in business.
    Was there really a surge of youth turnout? I thought it was due to middle aged and older people swinging Labour more than usual?
    Youth turnout rose from 43% to 57% according to the eerily accurate YouGov model. I'd call that a surge.
    Hm.. while the model was right they could have overestimated youth turnout and underestimated middle aged Lab->Con switchers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    Because it is not all about trade and economics. Economically we would be far better off as the 51st state of the US or as a vassal of China. I don't see too many people pushing for those options.

    I'm far from certain that, economically, fighting either of the World Wars was a sane choice, so by that reasoning I'd guess we would already be a vassal of Germany.

    Making constitutional decisions because of economics seems to be the lowest form of decision-making.
    And yet that is what the remain campaign asked us to do.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.

    We're thinking of invading Mars.
    The Red planet?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    SeanT said:


    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, when she was about 14 or 15, there was one street in Tooting which she basically HAD to walk down, to get home from school. Unfortunately, this street was patrolled by lots of Muslim men, mainly young, but some old, and they would sexually harass her continuously.

    And this wasn't just wolf-whistling or cat-calling, it was very aggressive: "come here you slut", "show us your tits you little white whore", "suck my" etc etc. Sometimes she would be grabbed, physically, and teased. And it was ONLY Muslim men that did this. She got unwelcome attention from others, but the really horrible, frightening stuff - it was just Muslim males.

    Recall that my girlfriend is Corbynite, hippychick, feminist, multilcultural. For her to come out and say this about Muslims was, to me, quite shocking

    There is an upside. She and her mum (a very lefty teacher) were so incensed by this behaviour, they went to their local MP, Sadiq Khan. Who was, she says, very understanding and very helpful, seeing her in person several times, and following up with phone calls, and she doesn't know what he did but after she complained the harassment considerably reduced. It didn't stop, but it got noticeably better - though she has no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531

    Second like Jezza!

    Second like Corbyn

    Which of you is Diane Abbott?
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    Having just watched Rees Mogg on skt news he believes leaving the EU is easy and not at all complicated so there's no need toworry or be concerned. I must have missed something along the way or he just has a superior intellect to my meagre brain.

    Yes
    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    There are two reasons why this is sub-optimal.

    The first issue is that the EU has trade relations with almost all of our biggest trading partners, and a disorganised exit would (negatively) reset our trade arrangements with these countries too.

    The EU has trade agreements - not necessarily complete FTAs, but agreements that cover mutual recognition of standards, double taxation, rules on re-export, etc. - with the world's largest economies. There are treaties between the EU and the US, the EU and China, the EU and Australia and the EU and New Zealand, for example. There are also a lot of EU
    snip

    ed international boundaries a dozen times, as copper was mined, refined, spun, put into a part, that was made into a component, that was sent to final assembly, before heading to a distribution centre, and finally arriving in the UK. Tariffs cannot simply be "made up" by devaluation, as devaluation makes importing components more expensive. If something went from Germany to the UK to France then it might be cheaper (given the possibility of tariffs upon tariffs) for it to stay inside the EU. (And even if the tariffs are eliminated, remember that firms like to run with essentially zero inventory. If there's one supplier where things sit waiting for a customs inspection for two days, that will negatively impact it.)

    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.
    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.
    Because it is not all about trade and economics. Economically we would be far better off as the 51st state of the US or as a vassal of China. I don't see too many people pushing for those options.
    The fatal flaw in the Remainers' argument has always been to assert that EU membership is about trade and nothing else. That just insults peoples' intelligence.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756

    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    The mission is to bring down the government which Brexit means Brexit Tory MPs will do by themselves. There is no Tory majority regardless of the DUP because there are sizeable factions on both wings who will vote against the other. Yes they'll support confidence motions. But I suspect theyll support little else.

    And the same goes for a very Minority Corbyn260 government. It'll be an early election

    *This is politics. Mad things happen. Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it impossible

    You're contradicting yourself. If Tories will support confidence motions, then there'll be no early election.

    I know wishful thinking is the left's stock in trade, but this really is getting boring. There will be no early election.
    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
    Maastricht, which arguably got us into this mess, and created the EU in its current form, was passed under the Major government.

    By one vote.
    Indeed. And perhaps Royal Blue might want to read back over this part of history before confidently assuming the current Tory "majority" will have the ability or will to do anything other than year itself apart over Europe. They won't cede power to Corbyn, but they will make the Tories synonymous with self-indulgent political infighting. Again
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    rcs1000 said:

    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.

    As I have written many times, I do not believe the United Kingdom is a good fit for the EU political project. Ultimately, the EU will either collapse, or end up as a state. (Or most likely, some subset of the EU will end up as a state.)

    We have never been happy with the political project of the EU. Attempting to force the UK to become a part of a federal country called Europe was never going to end well.

    If I made a mistake, it was an assumption that the Conservative government would act rationally and would recognise that exiting the EU was a multi-year journey, and not something best achieved by a stiff upper lip and a 20 month "negotiation".

    My fear, currently, is that the government will come up with a deal that satisfies nobody in 18 months. That this fails to pass the Commons, and that we crash out to Hard Brexit, with no agreements with other countries in place. I suspect this will lead to a substantial drop in investment in the UK, and to the prime London property market being hammered. Given that we already live beyond our means, this will likely lead to a long and serious recession, that will result in Corbyn being elected (Syriza-like) with a large majority to destroy the country further.

    Basically, I'm petrified by the stupidity of our politicians.
    I feel the same way.
  • Richard_HRichard_H Posts: 48
    Once people realise the consequences of Brexit, they will change their minds. I think a second referendum is inevitable. The UK already trades with the world and being part of the EU has not been a hinderance. If you start signing many trade deals with different countries, they usually come with terms that not everyone will be happy with. China and India have already stated they will want increased UK visas for their citizens.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.


    Well Labour have chosen a terrorist-loving, Marxist-believing, nutcase for a leader - who would quite literally rip up the country to achieve his aims. It'll take a while for the Tories to beat that...

    After a referendum and an election both designed to shore up the Tory party , I think they're in a league if their own when it comes to shambolic buffoonery.



    Are you complaining that the Tories put democracy above their own party?

    They do the opposite of that. They tried to gain party advantage. They tried so, so hard. . But they were shit at it. The Tories are incompetent on a cosmic scale. It would be funny if it didn't have damaging consequences.

    One silver lining. They still do irony well. After the few weeks you have thought they might pause before questioning the ability of others.


    I hear that Corbyn wants to illegally occupy expensive London property.

    So that's how he plans to get into No. 10...

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.

    We're thinking of invading Mars.
    The Red planet?
    The Reds are everywhere.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    nichomar said:

    SeanT said:


    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, when she was about 14 or 15, there was one street in Tooting which she basically HAD to walk down, to get home from school. Unfortunately, this street was patrolled by lots of Muslim men, mainly young, but some old, and they would sexually harass her continuously.

    And this wasn't just wolf-whistling or cat-calling, it was very aggressive: "come here you slut", "show us your tits you little white whore", "suck my" etc etc. Sometimes she would be grabbed, physically, and teased. And it was ONLY Muslim men that did this. She got unwelcome attention from others, but the really horrible, frightening stuff - it was just Muslim males.

    Recall that my girlfriend is Corbynite, hippychick, feminist, multilcultural. For her to come out and say this about Muslims was, to me, quite shocking

    There is an upside. She and her mum (a very lefty teacher) were so incensed by this behaviour, they went to their local MP, Sadiq Khan. Who was, she says, very understanding and very helpful, seeing her in person several times, and following up with phone calls, and she doesn't know what he did but after she complained the harassment considerably reduced. It didn't stop, but it got noticeably better - though she has no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
    And did she?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Richard_H said:

    Once people realise the consequences of Brexit, they will change their minds. I think a second referendum is inevitable. The UK already trades with the world and being part of the EU has not been a hinderance. If you start signing many trade deals with different countries, they usually come with terms that not everyone will be happy with. China and India have already stated they will want increased UK visas for their citizens.

    No
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    Having just watched Rees Mogg on skt news he believes leaving the EU is easy and not at all complicated so there's no need toworry or be concerned. I must have missed something along the way or he just has a superior intellect to my meagre brain.

    Yes
    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    The first issue is that the EU has trade relations with almost all of our biggest trading partners, and a disorganised exit would (negatively) reset our trade arrangements with these countries too.

    The EU has trade agreements - not necessarily complete FTAs, but agreements that cover mutual recognition of standards, double taxation, rules on re-export, etc. - with the world's largest economies. There are treaties between the EU and the US, the EU and China, the EU and Australia and the EU and New Zealand, for example. There are also a lot of EU
    snip

    ed international boundaries a dozen times, as copper was mined, refined, spun, put into a part, that was made into a component, that was sent to final assembly, before heading to a distribution centre, and finally arriving in the UK. Tariffs cannot simply be "made up" by devaluation, as devaluation makes importing components more expensive. If something went from Germany to the UK to France then it might be cheaper (given the possibility of tariffs upon tariffs) for it to stay inside the EU. (And even if the tariffs are eliminated, remember that firms like to run with essentially zero inventory. If there's one supplier where things sit waiting for a customs inspection for two days, that will negatively impact it.)

    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.
    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.
    Because it is not all about trade and economics. Economically we would be far better off as the 51st state of the US or as a vassal of China. I don't see too many people pushing for those options.
    The fatal flaw in the Remainers' argument has always been to assert that EU membership is about trade and nothing else. That just insults peoples' intelligence.
    WilliamGlenn's honesty on this issue is refreshing.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    There are two reasons why this is sub-optimal.

    The first issue is that the EU has trade relations with almost all of our biggest trading partners, and a disorganised exit would (negatively) reset our trade arrangements with these countries too.

    The EU has trade agreements - not necessarily complete FTAs, but agreements that cover mutual recognition of standards, double taxation, rules on re-export, etc. - with the world's largest economies. There are treaties between the EU and the US, the EU and China, the EU and Australia and the EU and New Zealand, for example. There are also a lot of EU free trade deals: Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Colombia, Chile, Morocco, Israel, South Africa and a host of other places.

    If we crash out of the EU with no agreements in place, we need to open negotiations with all these countries too. I know it's tempting to say "oh, these guys will all want free trade agreements with us", and that's probably true. But FTAs typically take a long-time to negotiate: I am always amused that the China-Maldive FTA - which should be the simplest agreement on the planet - is in its sixth year
    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.

    I think you should copy this post and keep it to repost when anyone says we should leave without a deal on trade. There are bad deals we should walk away from, but if a trade deal can be done then we should make it happen. I'm pleased by the appointment of Crawford Falconer by DExEU as the main negotiator for our exit. He is exactly what we need.
    Charlie's brother? They aren't stayers in that family.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    SeanT said:


    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, when she was about 14 or 15, there was one street in Tooting which she basically HAD to walk down, to get home from school. Unfortunately, this street was patrolled by lots of Muslim men, mainly young, but some old, and they would sexually harass her continuously.

    And this wasn't just wolf-whistling or cat-calling, it was very aggressive: "come here you slut", "show us your tits you little white whore", "suck my" etc etc. Sometimes she would be grabbed, physically, and teased. And it was ONLY Muslim men that did this. She got unwelcome attention from others, but the really horrible, frightening stuff - it was just Muslim males.

    Recall that my girlfriend is Corbynite, hippychick, feminist, multilcultural. For her to come out and say this about Muslims was, to me, quite shocking

    There is an upside. She and her mum (a very lefty teacher) were so incensed by this behaviour, they went to their local MP, Sadiq Khan. Who was, she says, very understanding and very helpful, seeing her in person several times, and following up with phone calls, and she doesn't know what he did but after she complained the harassment considerably reduced. It didn't stop, but it got noticeably better - though she has no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
    And did she?
    Actually she handled it very wel, waved to the crowd and got on with her job but should she have had to?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/mshelicat/status/876892510622273536

    Not a good look!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    Basically, I'm petrified by the stupidity of our politicians.

    Yet you voted for the guy who put £350m a week for the NHS on the side of a bus, and the guy who said we have had enough of experts

    If you didn't realise before the vote they were stupid, that's your lookout...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    nichomar said:

    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    SeanT said:

    .

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
    And did she?
    Actually she handled it very wel, waved to the crowd and got on with her job but should she have had to?
    She should have called their bluff and got 'em out.

    That would have shut them up.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    The mission is to bring down the government which Brexit means Brexit Tory MPs will do by themselves. There is no Tory majority regardless of the DUP because there are sizeable factions on both wings who will vote against the other. Yes they'll support confidence motions. But I suspect theyll support little else.

    And the same goes for a very Minority Corbyn260 government. It'll be an early election

    *This is politics. Mad things happen. Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it impossible

    You're contradicting yourself. If Tories will support confidence motions, then there'll be no early election.

    I know wishful thinking is the left's stock in trade, but this really is getting boring. There will be no early election.
    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
    Maastricht, which arguably got us into this mess, and created the EU in its current form, was passed under the Major government.

    By one vote.
    Indeed. And perhaps Royal Blue might want to read back over this part of history before confidently assuming the current Tory "majority" will have the ability or will to do anything other than year itself apart over Europe. They won't cede power to Corbyn, but they will make the Tories synonymous with self-indulgent political infighting. Again
    I am perfectly familiar with the Major government and its woes. The difference is that the stakes are much higher this time, so I expect Tory MPs to behave differently.

    Even if we get smashed in 2022, I will still be pleased that 1) Brexit was delivered and 2) we had 5 more years of sensible government before we embark on another doomed experiment in socialism.
  • Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    SeanT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GeoffM said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Corbyn is the hero now and-park-mosque-a3568306.html

    .
    Ironically swinging leftward is the best way to ruin the future of their children.
    You know that and I know that....
    But actually ... I was talking to an undergraduate the other day who said all her friends envied her for being an only child because it meant she might one day own a house. I found that tragic, and if we were to undergo the mother of all recessions it would arguably be a net benefit to that generation, if it came with the mother of all house price crashes
    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, when she was about 14 or 15, there was one street in Tooting which she basically HAD to walk down, to get home from school. Unfortunately, this street was patrolled by lots of Muslim men, mainly young, but some old, and they would sexually harass her continuously.

    And this wasn't just wolf-whistling or cat-calling, it was very aggressive: "come here you slut", "show us your tits you little white whore", "suck my" etc etc. Sometimes she would be grabbed, physically, and teased. And it was ONLY Muslim men that did this. She got unwelcome attention from others, but the really horrible, frightening stuff - it was just Muslim males.

    Recall that my girlfriend is Corbynite, hippychick, feminist, multilcultural. For her to come out and say this about Muslims was, to me, quite shocking

    There is an upside. She and her mum (a very lefty teacher) were so incensed by this behaviour, they went to their local MP, Sadiq Khan. Who was, she says, very understanding and very helpful, seeing her in person several times, and following up with phone calls, and she doesn't know what he did but after she complained the harassment considerably reduced. It didn't stop, but it got noticeably better - though she has no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.
    Horrible experience.

    As a matter of interest did Sadiq Khan involve the police? It is likely that other girls were subjected to similar verbal abuse. What if there were girls for whom it went beyond that?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Oh god. David Allen "A 50 will never be triggered" Green.

    Yeah, better stick with David "row of the summer first day" Davis
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    edited June 2017

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    Having just watched Rees Mogg on skt news he believes leaving the EU is easy and not at all complicated so there's no need toworry or be concerned. I must have missed something along the way or he just has a superior intellect to my meagre brain.

    Yes
    Leaving the EU is, of course, simple. You repeal the European Communities Act and related legislation.

    One could also eschew negotiation and exit to WTO terms. (Which means the "Most Favoured Nation" terms the EU extends all countries with whom it does not have special arrangements.)

    The first issue is that the EU has trade relations with almost all of our biggest trading partners, and a disorganised exit would (negatively) reset our trade arrangements with these countries too.

    The EU has trade agreements - not necessarily complete FTAs, but agreements that cover mutual recognition of standards, double taxation, rules on re-export, etc. - with the world's largest economies. There are treaties between the EU and the US, the EU and China, the EU and Australia and the EU and New Zealand, for example. There are also a lot of EU
    snip

    ed international boundaries a dozen times, as copper was mined, refined, spun, put into a part, that was made into a component, that was sent to final assembly, before heading to a distribution centre, and finally arriving in the UK. Tariffs cannot ely impact it.)

    Now, I'm not saying this makes a deal between the EU and the UK unlikely. It's in everyone's interests (most importantly politicians who wish to be re-elected) to make a deal. But do not underestimate the potential damage to the UK economy from a disorderly exit.
    Given you know all this, why the hell did you vote Leave? Should have listened to your father.
    Because it is not all about trade and economics. Economically we would be far better off as the 51st state of the US or as a vassal of China. I don't see too many people pushing for those options.
    The fatal flaw in the Remainers' argument has always been to assert that EU membership is about trade and nothing else. That just insults peoples' intelligence.
    WilliamGlenn's honesty on this issue is refreshing.
    At least he makes the case for political integration. If you think we should forge a new future as part of a nation called Europe, put the argument for it. You won't win by claiming the EU is not a political project, or admitting it's crap, but they'll do beastly things to us if we leave.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    nichomar said:

    SeanT said:


    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, when she was about 14 or 15, there was one street in Tooting which she basically HAD to walk down, to get home from school. Unfortunately, this street was patrolled by lots of Muslim men, mainly young, but some old, and they would sexually harass her continuously.

    And this wasn't just wolf-whistling or cat-calling, it was very aggressive: "come here you slut", "show us your tits you little white whore", "suck my" etc etc. Sometimes she would be grabbed, physically, and teased. And it was ONLY Muslim men that did this. She got unwelcome attention from others, but the really horrible, frightening stuff - it was just Muslim males.

    Recall that my girlfriend is Corbynite, hippychick, feminist, multilcultural. For her to come out and say this about Muslims was, to me, quite shocking

    There is an upside. She and her mum (a very lefty teacher) were so incensed by this behaviour, they went to their local MP, Sadiq Khan. Who was, she says, very understanding and very helpful, seeing her in person several times, and following up with phone calls, and she doesn't know what he did but after she complained the harassment considerably reduced. It didn't stop, but it got noticeably better - though she has no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
    Like I said, it is not restricted to Tooting.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.

    We're thinking of invading Mars.
    Good idea. Get the bastards before they get us!!
    Exactly. Just watch Tim Burton's Mars Attacks to see what we are up against.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Wasn't the EU's position originally that there would be absolutely no talks on a future relationship until the exit deal was signed?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:

    SeanT said:


    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, whas no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
    Stop being blind. Yes, men have behaved like halfwits towards women since Time Began.

    But there is a definite *edge* to Muslim misogyny which puts it in a different league. It is simultaneously aggressive, entitled, racist and contemptuous. The white girl or kaffir woman is by definition a slut - walking the street alone, in a skirt, makes her a whore, and fair game. Hence Rochdale, Rotherham and a hundred other towns.

    We need to accept these attitudes are out there. My GF was quite specific. She only got the really unpleasant, frightening abuse from Muslim men.

    Im not being blind, quite agree there are real problems that need to be addressed just making the point that mysogeny is still wide spread and appears in many forms and locations. I was actually trying to build on your post as i thought it was about the treatment of women in society rather than an attack on a particular group
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Pun corner

    If May does a deal with the DUP will it be a Maydup government?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Thanks to Robert for his repeated message about why he voted Leave.

    Could those who think Brexit dead please explain how they'd explain to the population who voted to Leave that we're not in fact going to leave. And how they expect to avoid the civil strife that would likely erupt following the erosion of democracy?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    Pun corner

    If May does a deal with the DUP will it be a Maydup government?

    I've got a coat here, but there are so many name tags in it I'm not sure if it is yours... :smiley:
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.

    We're thinking of invading Mars.
    Good idea. Get the bastards before they get us!!
    Exactly. Just watch Tim Burton's Mars Attacks to see what we are up against.
    Inspired by that great comment from @Casino_Royale I've actually been listening to the radio version since his post went up.

    “No-one would have believed, in the last years of the nineteenth century, that human affairs were being watched from the timeless worlds of space. No-one could have dreamed that we were being scrutinized, as someone with a microscope studies creatures that swarm and multiply in a drop of water. Few men even considered the possibility of life on other planets. And yet, across the gulf of space, minds immeasurably superior to ours regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely, they drew their plans against us…”
  • Richard_H said:

    Once people realise the consequences of Brexit, they will change their minds. I think a second referendum is inevitable. The UK already trades with the world and being part of the EU has not been a hinderance. If you start signing many trade deals with different countries, they usually come with terms that not everyone will be happy with. China and India have already stated they will want increased UK visas for their citizens.

    The press will try very hard to frustrate any scenario like this. It has been reasonably successful in shoring up opinion behind Brexit on the populist right - the large Remain protest vote at the election seems heavily because of the new, electoral self-mobilisation of the large group who are against it, feeling regret about their non-participation last year. Brexit was the press's biggest ever modern victory, and if the cause of the Brexit is lost, the power of the rightwing media will have been proved to have been broken forever, as David Yelland has said. The papers will pull out almost every stop to try and prevent this.

    ..on the evidence of the election, though, they're firing blanks.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    RobD said:

    Pun corner

    If May does a deal with the DUP will it be a Maydup government?

    I've got a coat here, but there are so many name tags in it I'm not sure if it is yours... :smiley:
    It is indeed my outer layer although @TSE or indeed any PBers are welcome to borrow it!! :smiley:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:



    If May was fantasy land to think Labour could form any sort of government on the June result.

    It can only happen if sufficient tory MP's felt so stongly that their reasons for defecting or voting againstthe QS outwieghed thier party loyalty. I cant envisage any circumstaces short of a "Suez" type debaclewhich could bring it about, it makes a thread like this good for entertainment but off the scale in probability. Evan if Rees Mogg and co dont get they want they wont let corbyn in.
    Quite. The maddest of Hard Tory Brexiteers wouldn't bring down this government and risk Corbyn as prime minister.

    Paradoxically, Corbyn's good showing in the GE will have united the Tories: in outright dread of a Marxist Labour victory.

    There's a very good chance this government will last to 2020 or beyond.
    You may be right. But its fundamental illegitimacy will be the final undoing of the Conservatives at next GE.

    There is no comparison with the 2010 deal, two parties forming a coalition from opposition with the smaller being a national party with 50+ seats and nearly a quarter of the GB vote, and the 2017 position with ten of the least moderate unionists from the back end of the kingdom with not even 1% of the UK vote propping up a newly defeated government.
    The government is hardly illegitimate, unless one assumes it is illegitimate for Northern Ireland to be represented in the Commons.
    Ultimately it will be the UK electorate that gets the final say on that.
    One thing to note: Corbyn is 68. Will the British people really elect him as PM in 2021, say, when he will be 72? A doddery old Trotskyite?

    At some point the weird shine will go off him. Tories just need to hold their nerve, and get a better leader.
    All three main party leaders at the next GE will probably be new.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited June 2017
    I notice there has been much talk of "confidence motions" on this thread. Let's not forget that there is no longer any such thing except for a motion in the exact form of words defined in S.2(4) of the FTPA. The Queen's Speech vote is no longer a confidence motion, a supply vote is no longer a confidence motion. Only a motion "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government." is now a confidence motion.

    This does lead me to ask what will happen if the government incidentally loses a supply vote (which is how Callaghan's government fell in 1979). It might feel bound to resign, but it will still require a FTPA vote (either of confidence or less likely a 2/3 vote for a dissolution) to trigger a dissolution and the outgoing government could quite conceivably win it. What happens then? Does the Queen have to commission the LOTO to try to form a government, wait for him to fail and summon back the Tory leader to have another go?

    What if the government decides it isn't bound to resign any more through losing a supply vote, but only if it loses a FTPA vote? Would the Queen feel herself bound to dismiss the government and summon the LOTO who would fail to secure a majority himself? We could end up with no legitimate government and no way to force a new election.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Mortimer said:

    Thanks to Robert for his repeated message about why he voted Leave.

    Could those who think Brexit dead please explain how they'd explain to the population who voted to Leave that we're not in fact going to leave. And how they expect to avoid the civil strife that would likely erupt following the erosion of democracy?

    Right winger talking up riots? Who'd a thunk it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    rpjs said:

    I notice there has been much talk of "confidence motions" on this thread. Let's not forget that there is no longer any such thing except for a motion in the exact form of words defined in S.2(4) of the FTPA. The Queen's Speech vote is no longer a confidence motion, a supply vote is no longer a confidence motion. Only a motion "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government." is now a confidence motion.

    This does lead me to ask what will happen if the government incidentally loses a supply vote (which is how Callaghan's government fell in 1979). It might feel bound to resign, but it will still require a FTPA vote (either of confidence or less likely a 2/3 vote for a dissolution) to trigger a dissolution and the outgoing government could quite conceivably it could win it. What happens then? Does the Queen have to commission the LOTO to try to form a government, wait for him to fail and summon back the Tory leader to have another go?

    What if the government decides it isn't bound to resign any more through losing a supply vote, but only if it loses a FTPA vote? Would the Queen feel herself bound to dismiss the government and summon the LOTO who would fail to secure a majority himself? We could end up with no legitimate government and no way to force a new election.

    Just goes to show what a pile of crap the FTPA is. :p
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    Not new but still makes me laugh out loud! His high fives are as bad as his football skills

    https://twitter.com/danhewittsky/status/872985973709295617
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    nichomar said:

    GeoffM said:

    nichomar said:

    SeanT said:


    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, when she was about 14 or 15, there was one street in Tooting which she basically HAD to walk down, to get home from school. Unfortunately, this street was patrolled by lots of Muslim men, mainly young, but some old, and they would sexually harass her continuously.

    And this wasn't just wolf-whistling or cat-calling, it was very aggressive: "come here you slut", "show us your tits you little white whore", "suck my" etc etc. Sometimes she would be grabbed, physically, and teased. And it was ONLY Muslim men that did this. She got unwelcome attention from others, but the really horrible, frightening stuff - it was just Muslim males.

    Recall that my girlfriend is Corbynite, hippychick, feminist, multilcultural. For her to come out and say this about Muslims was, to me, quite shocking

    There is an upside. She and her mum (a very lefty teacher) were so incensed by this behaviour, they went to their local MP, Sadiq Khan. Who was, she says, very understanding and very helpful, seeing her in person several times, and following up with phone calls, and she doesn't know what he did but after she complained the harassment considerably reduced. It didn't stop, but it got noticeably better - though she has no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
    And did she?
    Actually she handled it very wel, waved to the crowd and got on with her job but should she have had to?
    In a Muslim country would she even be allowed into the stadium?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what mad scheme the Tories are going to cook up and then cock up next.

    We're thinking of invading Mars.
    No need. According to a documentary I saw the other weekend, Mars was annexed to Her then Majesty's dominions in 1881.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    SeanT said:

    This fucking heat is unbearable!

    9.20pm and my flat is still 29C inside, as against 27C outside.

    Jeez.

    Where's yer Global Cooling now? :lol:
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    nichomar said:

    SeanT said:

    nichomar said:

    SeanT said:


    Talking of the yoof vote, I was with my girlfriend last night, and she told me a very interesting and personal political story.

    Apparently, whas no idea what it is like now.

    So three cheers for Sadiq Khan. It has made me warm to him.

    Hasn't done much for my opinion of Islam, tho.

    Is that the vibrancy which comes with living in a world city ?
    No... it is just the misogynistic sh*t that many women have to put up on a regular basis.

    Reading SeanT's anecdote did not shock me in the least. Unwelcome, insulting and aggressive attention towards women happens all too frequently and not always in streets in Tooting. Being told to "Show us yer tits" or "Get 'em out for the lads" is practically a Rite of Passage for women as is physical assault.

    How would any of you lot feel if some stranger sexually molested you in the street while his mates cheered him on? I mean, actually physically molested you, running their hand over your body or genitals?

    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.
    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
    Stop being blind. Yes, men have behaved like halfwits towards women since Time Began.

    But there is a definite *edge* to Muslim misogyny which puts it in a different league. It is simultaneously aggressive, entitled, racist and contemptuous. The white girl or kaffir woman is by definition a slut - walking the street alone, in a skirt, makes her a whore, and fair game. Hence Rochdale, Rotherham and a hundred other towns.

    We need to accept these attitudes are out there. My GF was quite specific. She only got the really unpleasant, frightening abuse from Muslim men.

    Im not being blind, quite agree there are real problems that need to be addressed just making the point that mysogeny is still wide spread and appears in many forms and locations. I was actually trying to build on your post as i thought it was about the treatment of women in society rather than an attack on a particular group
    :+1:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    edited June 2017

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks to Robert for his repeated message about why he voted Leave.

    Could those who think Brexit dead please explain how they'd explain to the population who voted to Leave that we're not in fact going to leave. And how they expect to avoid the civil strife that would likely erupt following the erosion of democracy?

    Right winger talking up riots? Who'd a thunk it?
    Perhaps one of your alter egos might know how to respond to the question?

    It is a serious one.

    How would you square the democratic circle of not implmenting Brexit...?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    SeanT said:

    This fucking heat is unbearable!

    9.20pm and my flat is still 29C inside, as against 27C outside.

    Jeez.

    It was 31c at 6.30pm in town today. In my living room right now, deep in the suburbs, it is also 27c.

    Enough!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    SeanT said:

    This fucking heat is unbearable!

    9.20pm and my flat is still 29C inside, as against 27C outside.

    Jeez.

    A thousand miles south and we're 73F (or 23C) .. humidity 90% and 10mph winds to take the worst of it away.

    The Straits were lovely today for fishing. You could see the sunlight flickering off the windows in Morocco.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    RoyalBlue said:

    The mission isn't get Corbyn into number 10 with 260 seats - that's madness*

    The mission is to bring down the government which Brexit means Brexit Tory MPs will do by themselves. There is no Tory majority regardless of the DUP because there are sizeable factions on both wings who will vote against the other. Yes they'll support confidence motions. But I suspect theyll support little else.

    And the same goes for a very Minority Corbyn260 government. It'll be an early election

    *This is politics. Mad things happen. Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it impossible

    You're contradicting yourself. If Tories will support confidence motions, then there'll be no early election.

    I know wishful thinking is the left's stock in trade, but this really is getting boring. There will be no early election.
    I'm not. Think back to the Major government of 1992. He had a majority May could only dream of. And was incapable of getting anything through other than making them confidence motions. And you can only do a couple of those before authority has gone hence him resigning.

    DUP or not the Tories only have a majority to pass confidence motions. That's it. On pretty much everything else chaos will reign. And the longer it goes on the greater the damage to their 'natural party of government' image
    Maastricht, which arguably got us into this mess, and created the EU in its current form, was passed under the Major government.

    By one vote.
    Indeed. And perhaps Royal Blue might want to read back over this part of history before confidently assuming the current Tory "majority" will have the ability or will to do anything other than year itself apart over Europe. They won't cede power to Corbyn, but they will make the Tories synonymous with self-indulgent political infighting. Again
    My point is that one vote may suffice to take us out as well.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    My house is buried in the side of a valley - 21 here, in Poole.
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238

    nichomar said:



    Sean's anecdote is all too believable. Ask your wives, daughters, sisters, etc.

    But not restricted to one particular section of society. I was at a football match where the ref was female and sections of the crowd chanted "get your t*** out for the lads"
    Like I said, it is not restricted to Tooting.

    However, I think it's becoming a lot less common at football matches, building sites and other traditionally 'WWC' scenarios, but *more* prevalent in places like the street in Tooting SeanT is talking about (and, having grown up in Tooting, I can make a reasonable guess as to the specific area).

    There were lots of Muslim families in the area when I was growing up. Generally they were stereotypically quiet strivers. They had large extended families around the place. The children did relatively well at school and weren't completely segregated from the rest of us. And yes, even more stereotypically, they ran the corner shops, the independent video rental stores, the many excellent Indian restaurants (Tooting, if you haven't been, is on a par with Brick Lane and Southall for Asian food).

    Labour voters to a man, of course, but decent people.

    But this aggressive, vocal, confident mysogyny from Muslim men is a relatively new thing in the community.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks to Robert for his repeated message about why he voted Leave.

    Could those who think Brexit dead please explain how they'd explain to the population who voted to Leave that we're not in fact going to leave. And how they expect to avoid the civil strife that would likely erupt following the erosion of democracy?

    Right winger talking up riots? Who'd a thunk it?
    Good point. Riots should stay purely Lefty territory, eh?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756
    rpjs said:

    I notice there has been much talk of "confidence motions" on this thread. Let's not forget that there is no longer any such thing except for a motion in the exact form of words defined in S.2(4) of the FTPA. The Queen's Speech vote is no longer a confidence motion, a supply vote is no longer a confidence motion. Only a motion "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government." is now a confidence motion.

    This does lead me to ask what will happen if the government incidentally loses a supply vote (which is how Callaghan's government fell in 1979). It might feel bound to resign, but it will still require a FTPA vote (either of confidence or less likely a 2/3 vote for a dissolution) to trigger a dissolution and the outgoing government could quite conceivably win it. What happens then? Does the Queen have to commission the LOTO to try to form a government, wait for him to fail and summon back the Tory leader to have another go?

    What if the government decides it isn't bound to resign any more through losing a supply vote, but only if it loses a FTPA vote? Would the Queen feel herself bound to dismiss the government and summon the LOTO who would fail to secure a majority himself? We could end up with no legitimate government and no way to force a new election.

    Great post. A government that cannot command the confidence of the house. An opposition that cannot command the 67% of MPs needed to remove said government. Marvellous
This discussion has been closed.