politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the speculation is that these could be TMay’s final days a

Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for May.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for May.

Very good sir.

Andrew said:

I'd love to know how Grenfell can be blamed on someone who only became PM after the refurb finished, and a good 16 years after the programme it was part of began.

It's not the refurb that's the issue, it is her wooden Maybot approach that is the issue.

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/875728039757443072

Andrew said:

I'd love to know how Grenfell can be blamed on someone who only became PM after the refurb finished, and a good 16 years after the programme it was part of began.

She's hopeless at the job, but this is ridiculous.

From the business insider article

Her botched private visit to the scene of the fire, in which she failed to meet any residents, reportedly because of "security fears" caused huge anger among those affected, as did her subsequent media interviews in which she failed to even acknowledge the anger that had been caused.

Pictures of the PM at the scene, taken from a distance, helped crystallise what is fast becoming a settled view of the PM as a cold and distant figure out of touch with the public she represents.

Devastating:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-how-theresa-mays-two-aides-seized-control-of-the-tory-campaign-to-calamitous-effect-a3566796.html

Can May really survive this weekend without a stalking horse appearing?

Morris_Dancer said:

I did lay her to be 'next' PM. I think the market settles after the Queen's Speech. Currently layable at 1.11 on Betfair, although personally I'd avoid it for now [had I not already partaken, probably unwisely].

Please, please make Hammond PM for Queen's Speech. Thanks to the PB tip - I am in for a stack if that happens.

Jason said:

SeanT said:

David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.

Brexit is a bigger disaster than PM Corbyn.

Do the Men in Grey Suits work over the weekend?

SeanT said:

David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

I suggest the other way around - Philip Hammond as Prime Minister, David Davis as Mr Brexit, effectively a dual Prime Ministership.

Earlier this afternoon I put a bit more money on each of them at very long odds to be Prime Minister after the election. Prices have shortened since then but with the whiff of insurrection in the air, they may well still be good value.

SeanT said:

Jason said:

SeanT said:

David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.

Couldn't agree more. Terrifying. I'm a Leaver (obv) but Brexit is now secondary to the clear and present danger of Corbyn as PM.

Surely Tory MPs see this? If they don't they are crazy.

We need the Softest Brexit possible to ensure the minimum damage and to give the Tories the best chance of surviving til 2021-2022, by which time, hopefully, the public will have gotten over their fit of madness and Corbyn will be shop-soiled (which he will, after a year or two)

This is like wartime. Normal rules are suspended.

Agreed. Anyone and anything but Corbyn and Momentum.

rottenborough said:

Morris_Dancer said:

I did lay her to be 'next' PM. I think the market settles after the Queen's Speech. Currently layable at 1.11 on Betfair, although personally I'd avoid it for now [had I not already partaken, probably unwisely].

Please, please make Hammond PM for Queen's Speech. Thanks to the PB tip - I am in for a stack if that happens.

If that comes off, I may retire as a tipster because I will never ever be able to top it.

She seems to be lurching from crisis to crisis, and now can't do anything right. A real reverse Midas Touch. She also looks shell shocked, and probably can't wait for it to be over.
I reckon she'll quit after the QS, and quit politics immediately. A new PM followed by public outcry over another "unelected" PM, another GE, and hello PM Corbyn.

rottenborough said:

Devastating:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-how-theresa-mays-two-aides-seized-control-of-the-tory-campaign-to-calamitous-effect-a3566796.html

Can May really survive this weekend without a stalking horse appearing?

Devastating but reads like the case for the defence of Lynton Crosby.

We are witnessing the end of May.

Hammond would be a disaster. Just as impersonal.

SouthamObserver said:

I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

It's a negotiating position.

If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

I suggest the other way around - Philip Hammond as Prime Minister, David Davis as Mr Brexit, effectively a dual Prime Ministership.

Earlier this afternoon I put a bit more money on each of them at very long odds to be Prime Minister after the election. Prices have shortened since then but with the whiff of insurrection in the air, they may well still be good value.

On election night I pressed the cash out button to lock in about £70 on this market, turns out in doing so I laid DD at 1000!!

He and Hammond are nice winners now though

I feel really sorry for May. She has had 3 terrorist attacks plus the Grenfell fire to deal with in less than a year. Brexit on her plate too, she is becoming a scapegoat for everything people want to project about

rottenborough said:

Devastating:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-how-theresa-mays-two-aides-seized-control-of-the-tory-campaign-to-calamitous-effect-a3566796.html

Can May really survive this weekend without a stalking horse appearing?

As Mike reminded us in the header, this post is out of date by about two decades.

The process by which the Tory Party now gets rid of leaders it doesn't want is:

1. 15% of Conservative MPs need to send the Chairman of the 1922 Committee letters requesting a No Confidence vote. This sets the bar at 48 MPs at present.
2. That no confidence motion must be carried.

If these conditions are satisfied, a new leadership election is held in which the previous leader is barred from standing.

My guess would be that despite the subsequent problems that followed May's coronation last July, there would still be a preference for a Magic Circle succession if possible.

SeanT said:

Razedabode said:

We are witnessing the end of May.

Hammond would be a disaster. Just as impersonal.

People don't mind impersonal. They just want competent and human. Hammond can do that, he can also tell the odd dry joke (quite well).

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2017/mar/08/philip-hammonds-top-five-jokes-during-budget-speech-video

TMay looks incompetent and inhuman. It's horrible for her, but there it is.

Hammond may be grey, but he is smart and can think on his feet. He will also be transactional about Brexit, not religious, which is exactly what we need.

I seem to remember him doing pretty well during those huge floods a few years back.

tim80 said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Have we done this?

https://twitter.com/dngbbc/status/875663441171763202

Might as well get it out the way. The only thing that matters for us now is the transition/continuity arrangement and that gets decided last, after the divorce terms and the agreed final desitination

It's sensible to discuss it first and explain to the EU that the UK is owed money on a net basis. They can then choose how to respond.

FPT

Good plan if you don't care about a timely arrangement with the EU. If you are concerned about things like trade, prosperity and jobs you might as well take the hit. What's €60 billion against all the other damage Brexit is causing?

Which is why, OT, it might be a good idea to get the exit fee sorted before Theresa May is banished. It will get somewhat lost in the chaos, and her successor can blame it on her.

rottenborough said:

Do the Men in Grey Suits work over the weekend?

They become men in tweed suits.

(They don't of course: that hasn't been the case for fifty years, but then the imagery is about fifty years old so the anachronism is consistent).

dyedwoolie said:

Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.

A little perspective and time is required.

If she can get through the current frothing to the Queen's speech, (and she must or there is a risk to the Conservative government in its entirety) then she must get through to summer. This enables either a little perspective and calm to settle, or it enables a smoother transition to a new PM during the recess.

Frothing and panic helps no one - country nor party. Viewed from the next election, whether there is a transition this week, in the summer or next year is probably of little consequence - even if it seems significant now.

For me, I either want her to see Brexit through or have a smooth transition in time for the outcome of the German elections - with the new PM leading on the real Brexit discussions that then take place.

volcanopete said:

Britain is a global laughing stock,not least in the 27 EU capitals.May must go.

If they are laughing they plainly don't get it yet. What can happen here can happen anywhere. After Brexit, Trump, Macron (and don't forget how well Le Pen did), and GE 2017 what elections in the West are still considered to be safely predictable? Electorates are reaching for the big red button again and again. I doubt that we have seen the last of that.

Could someone explain why Clark 100/1 is completely off the radar?
Do people know something?

Just checked (I have no bet on the next Con leader), and am puzzled that Hammond is 13 to be next leader, but Ruth Davidson is 9. Is that not crazy?

SouthamObserver said:

RobinWiggs said:

SouthamObserver said:

I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

It's a negotiating position.

If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

It's only a negotiating hand if you are prepared to do it. Anyone prepared to inflict that scale of economic hardship on people is not a safe pair of hands.

No - it is only necessary for the other side to think you might do it, for it to be effective.

Just like the nuclear deterrent. That's why Corbyn's position is so risible - we'll have the nukes but never use them.

Mr. Metatron, he's old and an EU-phile. We're about to negotiate leaving the EU. He won't stand and he'd be even more divisive than Boris Johnson if he won.

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

Do the Men in Grey Suits work over the weekend?

They become men in tweed suits.

(They don't of course: that hasn't been the case for fifty years, but then the imagery is about fifty years old so the anachronism is consistent).

So far on this thread I have been twenty years out of date and fifty years out of date.

I think I am becoming Jezza Corbyn.

SeanT said:

Tykejohnno said:

The tories would be mad to get rid of her now.

I think she might just go, anyway. Imagine the intolerable strain on her. Jesus.

Totally. Anybody would be inclined to think 'sod it' in this atmosphere.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Typo said:

dyedwoolie said:

Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.

Could do with a really wet weekend....would be best for everyone.

I thought it was going to be really hot? Hotter than Barca I saw (and it wasn't in the Express either).

Kohl dead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40307918

FrancisUrquhart said:

Typo said:

dyedwoolie said:

Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.

Could do with a really wet weekend....would be best for everyone.

Good news the weather forecast is dry, lots of sun, and high temperatures.

DavidL said:

Tykejohnno said:

The tories would be mad to get rid of her now.

They are mad. They are fucking furious. And so they should be.

Maybe but getting rid when big events are going on at this time will only lead to disaster for the government.

Best is to wait until later this year or next year.

RobinWiggs said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobinWiggs said:

SouthamObserver said:

I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

It's a negotiating position.

If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

It's only a negotiating hand if you are prepared to do it. Anyone prepared to inflict that scale of economic hardship on people is not a safe pair of hands.

No - it is only necessary for the other side to think you might do it, for it to be effective.

Just like the nuclear deterrent. That's why Corbyn's position is so risible - we'll have the nukes but never use them.

Likewise, we are not going to unilaterally inflict sustained economic harm on ourselves.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Razedabode said:

We are witnessing the end of May.

Hammond would be a disaster. Just as impersonal.

People don't mind impersonal. They just want competent and human. Hammond can do that, he can also tell the odd dry joke (quite well).

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2017/mar/08/philip-hammonds-top-five-jokes-during-budget-speech-video

TMay looks incompetent and inhuman. It's horrible for her, but there it is.

Hammond may be grey, but he is smart and can think on his feet. He will also be transactional about Brexit, not religious, which is exactly what we need.

I seem to remember him doing pretty well during those huge floods a few years back.

Hammond will keep us in either the Customs Union or the SM or both. Right now this is what we need. Stability. Transition. Slow and steady.

See, sensible people like you and me can agree on this. We've just got to persuade the hardcore nutters on your left and my right.

The far left will never, ever agree to this. They want trouble. From trouble comes uprising, they believe.

SouthamObserver said:

My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.

This is the moment Wolfie Corbyn and Che Mcdonnell have been waiting for SO, their time has come!

SouthamObserver said:

Likewise, we are not going to unilaterally inflict sustained economic harm on ourselves.

By the same reasoning, nor should they - and more immediately, nor should they say good bye to any exit payment or on-going contributions to their budget, which seem to be amongst their key demands.

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.

This is the moment Wolfie Corbyn and Che Mcdonnell have been waiting for SO, their time has come!

Yep, I know. And they are going to blow it. In the end, what they want is unachievable.

Tykejohnno said:

DavidL said:

Tykejohnno said:

The tories would be mad to get rid of her now.

They are mad. They are fucking furious. And so they should be.

Maybe but getting rid when big events are going on at this time will only lead to disaster for the government.

Best is to wait until later this year or next year.

I think she is doing very serious damage to the brand every day she hangs on. She should have gone already. Politics is a tough trade and she has made a catalogue of serious errors.

What is clear is that replacing her will be a more cabinet based government. We won't have this clique knows best nonsense again for a while.

TwistedFireStopper said:

Protester blaming the Met for stopping the residents from "rescuing their babies". Someone ne3ds to get a grip of this situation pronto.

I am not sure how.....it is a lynch mob who the authorities can't be seen to be going hard on.

dyedwoolie said:

Angry protest at Kensington town hall. Peaceful at the moment but very angry and noisy.
Demanding answers but nobody replying.

And what if the answers they get are not the ones they want to hear?

Even if the answers are truthful?

TwistedFireStopper said:

Protester blaming the Met for stopping the residents from "rescuing their babies". Someone ne3ds to get a grip of this situation pronto.

Heard someone on 5Live this morning saying the Army should have been landing helicopters on the roof to rescue people.

People believe too much of what they see in films sadly.

TOPPING said:

I am extremely happy with my 44s (BF) on Rudd next PM.

Edit: sorry after the election.

10s on Rudd next PM after Tezza.

If she holds her seat.

SouthamObserver said:

RobinWiggs said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobinWiggs said:

SouthamObserver said:

I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

It's a negotiating position.

If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

It's only a negotiating hand if you are prepared to do it. Anyone prepared to inflict that scale of economic hardship on people is not a safe pair of hands.

No - it is only necessary for the other side to think you might do it, for it to be effective.

Just like the nuclear deterrent. That's why Corbyn's position is so risible - we'll have the nukes but never use them.

Likewise, we are not going to unilaterally inflict sustained economic harm on ourselves.

But we are not going to tell them that. It would be MAD.

Plus it depends on how bad a deal is on the table. Surely we can both conceive of deals that are so bad that no deal and WTO is better? A £100bn bill, or £200bn or a trillion. Therefore in principle no deal can be better than a bad deal - it just depends on your definition of a bad deal.

SeanT said:

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/875739835964706817

Things are going to get very nasty very quickly and I don't think anyone can predict what might happen. Public opinion is very volitile both ways.

I'm with SO, labour and the media are whipping this up, and they might not be able to control the narrative or the fall out.

I'm glad I'm staying out of london this weekend.

Mr. Topping, those are nice odds on Rudd.

Mr. T, marvellous.

Mr. Pulpstar, indeed. Thank goodness the Leader of the Opposition and media haven't been stoking it up.

DanSmith said:

SouthamObserver said:

My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.

He's teflon Corbyn, is just as likely to get loads of credit for being the voice calling for peace and calming the situation.

What we really need is the government to get a grip and show some leadership.

We absolutely do. That's why May has to go. The country has not felt this ungoverned for a very long time.