politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two more polls this morning add to the big picture – Labour
The most significant changes have been from the two long-established phone firms, Ipsos-MORI and ICM which saw drops for CON of 3% and 4% respectively.
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yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?0
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Just to say, The Greens are only 1% behind the Lib Dems and UKIP with Ipsos-Mori
What were to happen if say next month, The Greens ended up third, and either the Lib Dems or UKIP were fifth?0 -
Bloody hell - Indeed Greens must be on alot for others to be 13% !0
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Yes! (Well you're wrong, the Greens are on 7%)Pulpstar said:
Greens on 8% - Are you sure ? You need to discount Nats and BNP from other others.TheScreamingEagles said:Just to say, The Greens are only 1% behind the Lib Dems and UKIP with Ipsos-Mori
What were to happen if say next month, The Greens ended up third, and either the Lib Dems or UKIP were fifth?
UKIP, meanwhile, are now on their lowest level this year on 8%, tied with the Lib Dems (8%). The Green Party are now just one point behind these two on 7%.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3295/Half-of-Britons-feel-no-benefit-of-economic-growth.aspx0 -
Before the child benefit poster gets here first.... FALKIRK FIRST
"There are rumours of more email revelations to come. And gradually the firewall separating Ed Miliband from what he once condemned as “the machine politics” of Falkirk is starting to smoulder. Those scapegoats could soon be needed."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100246077/labour-is-lining-up-scapegoats-for-the-falkirk-scandal/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
So the intelligent posters on here always say. Cameron moves ahead!!TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
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Well it was until this morning. I anticipate a period of silence on leadership ratings......TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
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Yes sorry I was assuming 'Others' on 8%, 13% is huge.0
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Also, remember, Ed is more disliked than the Tory party, in net and absolute terms.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So the intelligent posters on here always say. Cameron moves ahead!!TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
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Not sure about the tense in the thread header. The Labour lead has undoubtedly increased but is it increasing? There are some signs from Yougov at least that it might have peaked earlier this week.
I would say the lead has increased from 4-6% to 6-8%. The question will be where it will go next and whether the surge caused by Ed's spend someone else's money plan persists or fades way as the economic news continues to improve.
Still all to play for but advantage Labour at the moment.0 -
Unite.0
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Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
Also, remember, Ed is more disliked than the Tory party, in net and absolute terms.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So the intelligent posters on here always say. Cameron moves ahead!!TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
That doesn't get posted here enough - for those of us who spend 15 mins a day nipping in, crucial titbits like that need to be repeated at least 5 times on each thread.0 -
Odd that the leaders' satisfaction ratings have all fallen. It's hard to see why Clegg's, to take one example, should have changed so much in a month.
Maybe Ipsos-MORI happened to find a particularly grumpy sample this month.0 -
Too slow, late.Bobajob said:Unite.
Good luck on the next thread.
Have received a fund raising letter from my blue friends in the post, photos of Len, Ed B and Ed M the only ones on their flyer.... Nearly put me off my champers and prawn sarnies.0 -
Others are on 8% in the Populus poll - I think you're just confusing the two.Pulpstar said:Yes sorry I was assuming 'Others' on 8%, 13% is huge.
Though I did notice that Greens were aggressively downweighted in the Populus poll - perhaps that reflects a greater propensity to respond to internet polls than normal, and so a higher certainty to vote when talking to Mori pollsters?
ICM didn't show a Green surge, though I note UKIP had more voters in Wales than any other region in the Kingdom.0 -
From August.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
Also, remember, Ed is more disliked than the Tory party, in net and absolute terms.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So the intelligent posters on here always say. Cameron moves ahead!!TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
That doesn't get posted here enough - for those of us who spend 15 mins a day nipping in, crucial titbits like that need to be repeated at least 5 times on each thread.
David Cameron is liked by 43%, and disliked by 52%. The Conservative party is liked by 39%, and disliked by 57%. The proportion liking the Conservative party has slightly increased from 35% in October 2012.
Ed Miliband is liked by 30% (down from 37% in October 2012), and disliked by 63%. The Labour party is liked by 49%, and disliked by 43%, which represents little change.
Nick Clegg is liked by 33% (up from 29% in October 2012), and disliked by 57%. The Liberal Democrat party is liked by 43% (up from 40%), and disliked by 47%.
Nigel Farage is liked by 27%, and disliked by 50%. The UK Independence Party is also liked by 25%, and disliked by 52%. Around one in four (22%) say they don’t know.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3245/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-August-2013.aspx0 -
This point in the electoral cycle is good for oppositions. I still expect Ed M PM, but doubt the lead will stay this high for long.0
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TSE, any idea what sort of traffic we can expect, travelling up from the East Mids to Manchester, setting off around 3pm this afternoon?TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
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I think may have been that last month was an outlier, his rating was minus 40 in SeptemberRichardNabavi said:Odd that the leaders' satisfaction ratings have all fallen. It's hard to see why Clegg's, to take one example, should have changed so much in a month.
Maybe Ipsos-MORI happened to find a particularly grumpy sample this month.0 -
Grangemouth.0
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Green surge maybe to do with the horrible Russell Brand whinging about not voting because 'they are all the same' crap. He does unfortunately have some followers who might take note of his negativity0
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What these polls do empahasis is that the LD's are slipping back towards 1950 Lib levels. That was the first election I took any interest in and the routine montony of the radio announcers voice "the Liberal candidate loses their deposit" remains with me.
And that was after a coalition with the Tories …… the National Government.
Took 20 years to get back to reasonable levels!
I do wonder what Cleggs master plan can possibly be!0 -
House!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Too slow, late.Bobajob said:Unite.
Good luck on the next thread.
Have received a fund raising letter from my blue friends in the post, photos of Len, Ed B and Ed M the only ones on their flyer.... Nearly put me off my champers and prawn sarnies.
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Obvious thought is that Russell Brand articulated some people's latent dissatisfaction thus encouraging them to be more critical when talking to Mori.RichardNabavi said:Odd that the leaders' satisfaction ratings have all fallen. It's hard to see why Clegg's, to take one example, should have changed so much in a month.
Maybe Ipsos-MORI happened to find a particularly grumpy sample this month.0 -
Depends which route you're departing from.TwistedFireStopper said:
TSE, any idea what sort of traffic we can expect, travelling up from the East Mids to Manchester, setting off around 3pm this afternoon?TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
If you're going up via the M1, don't go via the Woodhead or Snake Pass, go up via Leeds M62 way.
M62 way is a bit longer, but ultimately quicker, than Woodhead or Snake Pass on Friday afternoon.
I've spent far too long of my life in Mottram on a Friday night
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And decide to vote Green? You may be right (I can't see many more obvious causes), but I'm not sure I see it. I'm plumping for random statistical noise.state_go_away said:Green surge maybe to do with the horrible Russell Brand whinging about not voting because 'they are all the same' crap. He does unfortunately have some followers who might take note of his negativity
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Is this because we are now near enough to the election for the Opposition to start dangling promises in front of the electorate, but not so close that the Government can do the same without people wondering why they don't simply do those things now?edmundintokyo said:This point in the electoral cycle is good for oppositions.
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the main thing is that the Government is getting more unpopular. Surely for swingback fans the concept must be that this is the opposite?0
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Cheers, I was thinking M62, anyway. The Mrs couldn't get today off work, so have to set off when I pick her up, so we're at the mercy of Friday night traffic!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends which route you're departing from.TwistedFireStopper said:
TSE, any idea what sort of traffic we can expect, travelling up from the East Mids to Manchester, setting off around 3pm this afternoon?TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
If you're going up via the M1, don't go via the Woodhead or Snake Pass, go up via Leeds M62 way.
M62 way is a bit longer, but ultimately quicker, than Woodhead or Snake Pass on Friday afternoon.
I've spent far too long of my life in Mottram on a Friday night
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I assume they'd point at the 2.8% growth forecast for 2014 and say that time is on their side.Cityunslicker said:the main thing is that the Government is getting more unpopular. Surely for swingback fans the concept must be that this is the opposite?
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Quite good polling for the government on the economy and personal financial expectations (see pages 22, 26 and 27):
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/PolMon_Nov13_charts.pdf0 -
Depends on the time frame.Cityunslicker said:the main thing is that the Government is getting more unpopular. Surely for swingback fans the concept must be that this is the opposite?
Here are the changes from the Ipsos Mori poll from a year ago.
Con no change
Lab minus 8
LD minus 1
UKIP + 5
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3075/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-November-2012.aspx0 -
M62 good for north or middle Manchester - South Manchester better going A50 to Stoke then M6 IMHOTwistedFireStopper said:
Cheers, I was thinking M62, anyway. The Mrs couldn't get today off work, so have to set off when I pick her up, so we're at the mercy of Friday night traffic!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends which route you're departing from.TwistedFireStopper said:
TSE, any idea what sort of traffic we can expect, travelling up from the East Mids to Manchester, setting off around 3pm this afternoon?TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
If you're going up via the M1, don't go via the Woodhead or Snake Pass, go up via Leeds M62 way.
M62 way is a bit longer, but ultimately quicker, than Woodhead or Snake Pass on Friday afternoon.
I've spent far too long of my life in Mottram on a Friday night0 -
Thought Paul Kenny was pretty good on QT last night. Decent union boss standing up for the working man.0
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SatNav tries to make you go via Woodhead junction 35a.TwistedFireStopper said:
Cheers, I was thinking M62, anyway. The Mrs couldn't get today off work, so have to set off when I pick her up, so we're at the mercy of Friday night traffic!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends which route you're departing from.TwistedFireStopper said:
TSE, any idea what sort of traffic we can expect, travelling up from the East Mids to Manchester, setting off around 3pm this afternoon?TheScreamingEagles said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
If you're going up via the M1, don't go via the Woodhead or Snake Pass, go up via Leeds M62 way.
M62 way is a bit longer, but ultimately quicker, than Woodhead or Snake Pass on Friday afternoon.
I've spent far too long of my life in Mottram on a Friday night
Enjoy the gig, I'll be the chap in a pinstripe suit and brown shoes in Block 116 shouting and screaming like an idiot, and being disowned by the people next to me.0 -
@TSE
Hmm, so the Government is less popular than the year ago and opposition parties too - politicians are less popular. Still not sure how that is 'progress' for the Government. Polls take a long time to move substantially. I heard Portillo at an event this week say economic recovery was 'just in the nick of time' according to his Tory colleauges. My hunch is it is a little too late, but we will see.0 -
I'm of the opinion that Ed Miliband is on course to be Prime Minister, regardless of the economy.Cityunslicker said:@TSE
Hmm, so the Government is less popular than the year ago and opposition parties too - politicians are less popular. Still not sure how that is 'progress' for the Government. Polls take a long time to move substantially. I heard Portillo at an event this week say economic recovery was 'just in the nick of time' according to his Tory colleauges. My hunch is it is a little too late, but we will see.0 -
I'll be the middle aged guy in a Van Halen t- shirt, jeans, a tweed blazer and sensible shoes, sitting next to a woman in leather trousers, big blonde hair, and an expression on her face that screams " I don't want to be here!"TheScreamingEagles said:
SatNav tries to make you go via Woodhead junction 35a.TwistedFireStopper said:
Cheers, I was thinking M62, anyway. The Mrs couldn't get today off work, so have to set off when I pick her up, so we're at the mercy of Friday night traffic!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends which route you're departing from.TwistedFireStopper said:
TSE, any idea what sort of traffic we can expect, travelling up from the East Mids to Manchester, setting off around 3pm this afternoon?the screaming eagled said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
If you're going up via the M1, don't go via the Woodhead or Snake Pass, go up via Leeds M62 way.
M62 way is a bit longer, but ultimately quicker, than Woodhead or Snake Pass on Friday afternoon.
I've spent far too long of my life in Mottram on a Friday night
Enjoy the gig, I'll be the chap in a pinstripe suit and brown shoes in Block 116 shouting and screaming like an idiot, and being disowned by the people next to me.
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@anthonyjwells
@SamCoatesTimes strict turnout filter means MORI topline VI based on fewer people (468 today) which increases variation0 -
If they don't play Master and Servant or Just Can't Get Enough, I'll be the one muttering obscenities at the end of the evening.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'll be the middle aged guy in a Van Halen t- shirt, jeans, a tweed blazer and sensible shoes, sitting next to a woman in leather trousers, big blonde hair, and an expression on her face that screams " I don't want to be here!"TheScreamingEagles said:
SatNav tries to make you go via Woodhead junction 35a.TwistedFireStopper said:
Cheers, I was thinking M62, anyway. The Mrs couldn't get today off work, so have to set off when I pick her up, so we're at the mercy of Friday night traffic!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends which route you're departing from.TwistedFireStopper said:
TSE, any idea what sort of traffic we can expect, travelling up from the East Mids to Manchester, setting off around 3pm this afternoon?the screaming eagled said:yeah but it is all about the leadership rating innit?
If you're going up via the M1, don't go via the Woodhead or Snake Pass, go up via Leeds M62 way.
M62 way is a bit longer, but ultimately quicker, than Woodhead or Snake Pass on Friday afternoon.
I've spent far too long of my life in Mottram on a Friday night
Enjoy the gig, I'll be the chap in a pinstripe suit and brown shoes in Block 116 shouting and screaming like an idiot, and being disowned by the people next to me.0 -
Clearly time for Dave n George to start more of the 'sharing proceeds of growth' in the area of living costs.
Here's a suggestion - abolish the TV Licence Fee completely and absorb BBC funding into general taxation. Everyone would be happy not to have to pay it and the freeing up of time and costs in the courts (where a stupidly high share of minor cases are non-payment of TV licence related) would probably leave this revenue neutral.0 -
The changes on all giving a VI from last month are
Con minus 1
Lab plus 1
LD minus 1
UKIP minus 30 -
Yup, pretty much. What makes it even worse for the government is that their people can't really make a proper, full-throated attack on the idiocy of the opposition's proposals and the disaster that awaits the nation if they're adopted for fear that their own side is going to end up fighting the election advocating the same things.OblitusSumMe said:
Is this because we are now near enough to the election for the Opposition to start dangling promises in front of the electorate, but not so close that the Government can do the same without people wondering why they don't simply do those things now?edmundintokyo said:This point in the electoral cycle is good for oppositions.
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LOL. Although at my school many of us did attempt to use them as makeshift shurikens.tim said:This is great
@toadmeister: The 'thick rich' are irksome, but don't forget thick people from modest backgrounds, like Russell Brand: Mike ... http://t.co/hiRkVxOpqg
All the comments pointing out the obvious irony, check out poor Tobe getting corrected on his use of the line "not the sharpest protractor in the pencil case"
Nickr • an hour ago −
"The sharpest protractor in the pencil case"
A protractor is a semi-circular item and has no sharp edges- a set-square usually is sharp as it has a pointed end.
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Toby Young Nickr • 9 minutes ago −
Thanks. Duly corrected.
•Reply•Share ›
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10230468/UK-has-fastest-growing-population-in-Europe.html
"Britain's population is growing faster than any other country's in Europe"
"added almost 420,000 people to Britain’s tally in a single year"
"Total population growth in Britain was two and a half times that experienced by Germany, which has itself experienced mass migration in recent years."
I wonders if this has any relevance to GDP?0 -
Stella Creasy is very comely, it has to be said. Wasn't there one PB Tory who had a serious thing about her, and who advocated the immediate forced emigration of all Labour MPs and lefties, with the exception of Creasy who he would employ as a slave in his own private quarters?0
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LOL. A particular favourite of ours was ink cartridges which were booby trapped by a pair of compasses and hidden in schoolmates' pencil cases. Oh how we laughed.tim said:Bobajob said:
LOL. Although at my school many of us did attempt to use them as makeshift shurikens.tim said:This is great
@toadmeister: The 'thick rich' are irksome, but don't forget thick people from modest backgrounds, like Russell Brand: Mike ... http://t.co/hiRkVxOpqg
All the comments pointing out the obvious irony, check out poor Tobe getting corrected on his use of the line "not the sharpest protractor in the pencil case"
Nickr • an hour ago −
"The sharpest protractor in the pencil case"
A protractor is a semi-circular item and has no sharp edges- a set-square usually is sharp as it has a pointed end.
7 •Reply•Share ›
Toby Young Nickr • 9 minutes ago −
Thanks. Duly corrected.
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Nickr Toby Young • 2 minutes ago
I don't think it needed correcting as such- although I know we were having some fun and indulging in a bit of teasing over the choice you made from the many potential weapons in the old geometry set! I was waiting for somebody to comment that he actually had a protractor made from steel and he sharpened the edge to use as a blade!
•Reply•Share ›
Avatar
Gargrave Nickr • an hour ago
Hate to spoil the party, but I have a square protractor with nasty sharp corners. However, I'm pretty certain that Toby meant compasses.
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Avatar
mechris3 Gargrave • an hour ago
or "pair of compasses" - a compass being a navigation aid.
(we had to use fountain pens for some insane reason, which led to endless mirth)
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Paul Mcgann's doctor who Regeneration,did you guess right which doctor he regenerated in to ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-U3jrS-uhuo0 -
LOLtim said:
I think we can safely conclude that Toby isn't the sharpest item in the ball pit.Bobajob said:
LOL. A particular favourite of ours was ink cartridges which were booby trapped by a pair of compasses and hidden in schoolmates' pencil cases. Oh how we laughed.tim said:Bobajob said:
LOL. Although at my school many of us did attempt to use them as makeshift shurikens.tim said:This is great
@toadmeister: The 'thick rich' are irksome, but don't forget thick people from modest backgrounds, like Russell Brand: Mike ... http://t.co/hiRkVxOpqg
All the comments pointing out the obvious irony, check out poor Tobe getting corrected on his use of the line "not the sharpest protractor in the pencil case"
Nickr • an hour ago −
"The sharpest protractor in the pencil case"
A protractor is a semi-circular item and has no sharp edges- a set-square usually is sharp as it has a pointed end.
7 •Reply•Share ›
Toby Young Nickr • 9 minutes ago −
Thanks. Duly corrected.
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Nickr Toby Young • 2 minutes ago
I don't think it needed correcting as such- although I know we were having some fun and indulging in a bit of teasing over the choice you made from the many potential weapons in the old geometry set! I was waiting for somebody to comment that he actually had a protractor made from steel and he sharpened the edge to use as a blade!
•Reply•Share ›
Avatar
Gargrave Nickr • an hour ago
Hate to spoil the party, but I have a square protractor with nasty sharp corners. However, I'm pretty certain that Toby meant compasses.
2 •Reply•Share ›
Avatar
mechris3 Gargrave • an hour ago
or "pair of compasses" - a compass being a navigation aid.
(we had to use fountain pens for some insane reason, which led to endless mirth)0 -
Bob, a list for you. I think number 18 has a great name for a politician!Bobajob said:Stella Creasy is very comely, it has to be said. Wasn't there one PB Tory who had a serious thing about her, and who advocated the immediate forced emigration of all Labour MPs and lefties, with the exception of Creasy who he would employ as a slave in his own private quarters?
http://www.elistmania.com/still/18_hot_female_politicians/0 -
The Ipsos Mori poll was slightly better for the blues than I was expecting. But with Miliband's personal approval falling faster than Cameron's (which is going against YouGov to be fair), and only slightly less fast than the government's overall approval, the lead didn't stretch quite as far as ICM etc.0
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FWIW I don't find many Green voters, but the ones I find are as determined as UKIP voters and in a similar mood - often former LibDems from when the LDs were posing as saviours of left-wing values. Tactical voting? Pah! Might affect who your MP is? Who cares! So I'd expect them to do best on the "certain to vote" measure, as I see is in fact the case.0
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I wonder if the slight up tick in the Labour lead is down to the fact that the negative news about the cost of living has made people feel slightly less optimistic about the economy recovering in the short term? We have just had the news of those surprising and disappointing Retail figures, surely an indicator of this possibility? We are heading into winter where increased energy bills and the cost of Christmas loom large in voters minds? But if the economy continues to recovery at a far faster rate than anyone anticipated even earlier this year, that is going to finally start feeding into a more longer term consumer optimism and confidence.
No surprise at the drop in Nigel Farage's polling ratings after his most recent public outings, and that is I think now feeding into the drop in UKIP's ratings as well. There are already increased murmurings of the usual internal disunity which tends to follow an upsurge of new high profile figures emerging from within UKIP. You can almost set your clock by this cycle of bickering as those new to the internal workings of UKIP then come up against the intransigence of Farage when it comes to any attempts at modernising the party's operation. Especially if that might see him having to relinquish ulitimate control in what he has come to regard as his own personal fiefdom.DavidL said:Not sure about the tense in the thread header. The Labour lead has undoubtedly increased but is it increasing? There are some signs from Yougov at least that it might have peaked earlier this week.
I would say the lead has increased from 4-6% to 6-8%. The question will be where it will go next and whether the surge caused by Ed's spend someone else's money plan persists or fades way as the economic news continues to improve.
Still all to play for but advantage Labour at the moment.0 -
This growth in the Greens VI could spell massive problems for Lib Dems at next year's EC elections.0
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5 1/4 inch disks thrown across the classroom could hurt, if the impact was just right. Throwing 3 1/2 inch disks didn't quite have the same appeal, for some reason.Bobajob said:
LOL. A particular favourite of ours was ink cartridges which were booby trapped by a pair of compasses and hidden in schoolmates' pencil cases. Oh how we laughed.tim said:Bobajob said:
LOL. Although at my school many of us did attempt to use them as makeshift shurikens.tim said:This is great
@toadmeister: The 'thick rich' are irksome, but don't forget thick people from modest backgrounds, like Russell Brand: Mike ... http://t.co/hiRkVxOpqg
All the comments pointing out the obvious irony, check out poor Tobe getting corrected on his use of the line "not the sharpest protractor in the pencil case"
Nickr • an hour ago −
"The sharpest protractor in the pencil case"
A protractor is a semi-circular item and has no sharp edges- a set-square usually is sharp as it has a pointed end.
7 •Reply•Share ›
Toby Young Nickr • 9 minutes ago −
Thanks. Duly corrected.
•Reply•Share ›
Nickr Toby Young • 2 minutes ago
I don't think it needed correcting as such- although I know we were having some fun and indulging in a bit of teasing over the choice you made from the many potential weapons in the old geometry set! I was waiting for somebody to comment that he actually had a protractor made from steel and he sharpened the edge to use as a blade!
•Reply•Share ›
Avatar
Gargrave Nickr • an hour ago
Hate to spoil the party, but I have a square protractor with nasty sharp corners. However, I'm pretty certain that Toby meant compasses.
2 •Reply•Share ›
Avatar
mechris3 Gargrave • an hour ago
or "pair of compasses" - a compass being a navigation aid.
(we had to use fountain pens for some insane reason, which led to endless mirth)0 -
is Kilroy coming back? I do hope sofitalass said:
No surprise at the drop in Nigel Farage's polling ratings after his most recent public outings, and that is I think now feeding into the drop in UKIP's ratings as well. There are already increased murmurings of the usual internal disunity which tends to follow an upsurge of new high profile figures emerging from within UKIP. You can almost set your clock by this cycle of bickering as those new to the internal workings of UKIP then come up against the intransigence of Farage when it comes to any attempts at modernising the party's operation. Especially if that might see him having to relinquish ulitimate control in what he has come to regard as his own personal fiefdom.0 -
1950 ? - Blimey, when can we start calling you Mr VeryOldKingCole ? ;-)OldKingCole said:What these polls do empahasis is that the LD's are slipping back towards 1950 Lib levels. That was the first election I took any interest in and the routine montony of the radio announcers voice "the Liberal candidate loses their deposit" remains with me.
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What growth in Green VI ? There is none except in one poll only . Yougov/ICM and Populus all have Greens at 2 to 3 %TCPoliticalBetting said:This growth in the Greens VI could spell massive problems for Lib Dems at next year's EC elections.
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I really cannot see the Greens getting a mass-market appeal (the sort they have in Germany), at least under our present voting system.MarkSenior said:
What growth in Green VI ? There is none except in one poll only . Yougov/ICM and Populus all have Greens at 2 to 3 %TCPoliticalBetting said:This growth in the Greens VI could spell massive problems for Lib Dems at next year's EC elections.
I voted Green at the locals, simply because the candidate was not a douchebag, unlike the others (you really shouldn't ask). But their policies simply do not have enough appeal here in the UK.0 -
What's happended here? Has this thread reappeared in an attempt to use the previous thread to beat the all-time record for fewest comments on a PB thread (7, if no-one adds any more to it). Or was it an intervention by the Sri-Lankan governemnt to close down discussion of their human rights record?0
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Gremlins in the system.ThomasNashe said:What's happended here? Has this thread reappeared in an attempt to use the previous thread to beat the all-time record for fewest comments on a PB thread (7, if no-one adds any more to it). Or was it an intervention by the Sri-Lankan governemnt to close down discussion of their human rights record?
This is the latest and current thread.
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Looks like Cameron got the max publicity for the Tamils..Ed wanted him to stay away = no publicity for the Tamils..Hideaway Ed.0
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fitalass suggested below that UKIP's popularity was falling, together with Farage's, and that the increased Labour lead might reflect temporary doubts about economic recovery.
On the first, there doesn't seem clear evidence of a UKIP drop - e.g. the 13% in today's YG is pretty good. Farage has dropped with the general public as the novelty wears off but the UKIP vote still seems pretty solid to me.
On the second - as David L says, the lead is up from 5ish to 8ish (after a short period when it was 2ish). FWIW I think it's about narrative. Labour's themes - cost of living, energy price freeze, living wage, NHS - have dominated public discussion, with even opponents feeling they needed to talk about them. That makes it easier to see Labour as an interesting government, implementing/changing policy on these issues, and confers a dangerous air of irrelevance on the current government, which doesn't seem to be about anything in particular at the moment.
Bringing down the level of debt? Barely mentioned these days.
Reforming schools? Seems to have got a bit messy.
Reorganising the NHS. Urgh, change the subject.
Introducing Universal Benefit: um, maybe later.
Instead, we get a series of quarter-baked ideas: maybe something will be done on energy, or mobile phones, or control orders, or marriage tax allowance, but then again maybe not, it all has to be discussed, ask us again next year.
This isn't to say that nothing is being done, but a sense of narrative is missing, and that's crucial to any government as without it things gradually fall apart. The Tory strategy seems to be falling back on "Stop Labour!" which will IMO not prove sufficient.
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Really, Nick?NickPalmer said:Bringing down the level of debt? Barely mentioned these days.
http://www.conservatives.com/Splash.aspx
http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2013/10/david-camerons-speech-conservative-party-conference-2013-full-text
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TwistedFireStopper said:
Bob, a list for you. I think number 18 has a great name for a politician!Bobajob said:Stella Creasy is very comely, it has to be said. Wasn't there one PB Tory who had a serious thing about her, and who advocated the immediate forced emigration of all Labour MPs and lefties, with the exception of Creasy who he would employ as a slave in his own private quarters?
http://www.elistmania.com/still/18_hot_female_politicians/I think there are quite a few attractive politicians over here too:
Rachel Reeves
Stella Creasy
Gloria del Piero
Luciana Berger
Nadine Dorries (!!)
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Just repeating this: I know it's only local by-elections but if UKIP were sliding they wouldn't manage anywhere 26% of the vote even in local elections. To top up troubles for Labour these results came mainly in the north of England.
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel
Average vote shares at the 4 by-elections held on 14 Nov were: LAB 31.35%, #UKIP 26.65%, CON 20.33%. LDEMs stood in only 3 (av. vote 6.9%).
I don't think any of our pollsters have handled the UKIP phenom properly; Ipsos-Mori and Populus least of all.
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Have any PB'ers been keeping an eye on the USA lately? Obamacare is turning into a presidency destroying clusterfu<k of the first order. I wonder if there will be betting implications sooner or later. Mike maybe a good choice for a thread?0
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Interesting polls. My theory is that the voters are still too shellshocked by the sheer enormity of the FalkMouthCluskey scandalgate that the full impact is taking time to register.
Really though, when is this "swingback" supposed to happen? Even though the evidence for it is patchy at best, Tories do seem to put a lot of faith in it, so is there a timetable? At the moment we're seeing, er, Swingaway.0 -
Yes, I agree - this could become a very significant factor. If they don't sort it out soon, it might well scupper Hillary's chances in 2016. What's more, it looks very hard to sort out, with insurers already closing accounts.Patrick said:Have any PB'ers been keeping an eye on the USA lately? Obamacare is turning into a presidency destroying clusterfu
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Not unless Obama can run for a third term.Patrick said:Have any PB'ers been keeping an eye on the USA lately? Obamacare is turning into a presidency destroying clusterfu
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Re classroom weaponry. Bunsen burner attached to water tap was my favourite.0
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The 10 best drinking scenes on film – unless you know better?
Lots of embedded clips in the article – The ‘Withnail & I’ pub scene is a classic and comes with an “warning, adult content” - Arf.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10447157/The-10-best-drinking-scenes-on-film.html
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Last time, it started about nine months before the election, although it was complicated by the Brown boost in the heat of the financial crisis.R0berts said:Really though, when is this "swingback" supposed to happen? Even though the evidence for it is patchy at best, Tories do seem to put a lot of faith in it, so is there a timetable? .
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A presidency can be ruined mid 2nd term. Really. The objective of politics is not merely to get elected - a thing all politicians should reflect on every day. History is going to be very unkind to Obama.SimonStClare said:
Not unless Obama can run for a third term.Patrick said:Have any PB'ers been keeping an eye on the USA lately? Obamacare is turning into a presidency destroying clusterfu
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Nick Clegg - Satisfaction ratings : -43
Just in time for one of calamity Clegg's many public relations fightbacks.LBC 97.3 @lbc973 20h
LOL
LISTEN: 'If I'd said that about Roma gypsies there would've been total uproar!' Farage on Nick Clegg https://audioboo.fm/boos/1730022-farage-if-i-d-said-that-about-roma-gypsies-there-would-ve-been-total-uproar?utm_campaign=detailpage&utm_content=retweet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twittershare … Is he right?
When Farage is taking the moral high ground over Clegg you know that must have went down well with the lib dem grass roots. (those that are still left of course)0 -
Yes. It's one of five things referred to obliquely (deficit, not debt) on the party's website and Cameron apparently referred to it in his speech (which I can't remember anything about, in which I'm probably not alone). As I say, barely mentioned these days, for reasons we both know - (a) the debt is still going up briskly and (b) the public are not really engaged on the issue.RichardNabavi said:
Really, Nick?NickPalmer said:Bringing down the level of debt? Barely mentioned these days.
http://www.conservatives.com/Splash.aspx
http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2013/10/david-camerons-speech-conservative-party-conference-2013-full-text
But perhaps you can point out speeches on the subject made by leading Tories in the last two weeks, say? Perhaps they're just under-reported?
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History is going to very unkind to Obama irrespective – how can anyone live up to that kind of hype.Patrick said:
A presidency can be ruined mid 2nd term. Really. The objective of politics is not merely to get elected - a thing all politicians should reflect on every day. History is going to be very unkind to Obama.SimonStClare said:
Not unless Obama can run for a third term.Patrick said:Have any PB'ers been keeping an eye on the USA lately? Obamacare is turning into a presidency destroying clusterfu
But I take your point - and as Mr Nabavi points out, there could be ramifications for Ms Clinton’s election hopes, if she does indeed decide to run.
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I think we can safely say there won't be as many massive posters of Cameron's massive face this time out.tim said:
I thought that was just Dave and George being rubbish at election campagns, how do you know they won't repeat it?RichardNabavi said:
Last time, it started about nine months before the election, although it was complicated by the Brown boost in the heat of the financial crisis.R0berts said:Really though, when is this "swingback" supposed to happen? Even though the evidence for it is patchy at best, Tories do seem to put a lot of faith in it, so is there a timetable? .
Crosby's more likely to put some gay disabled brown people on a poster with a strapline asking "are you thinking what we're thinking?"0 -
Hang on, Nick. We're still trying to get the deficit down to a vaguely sane level. It was never the case that we'd be a position to start actually repaying debt for years. And it's hardly oblique - it's always one of the top messages.NickPalmer said:
Yes. It's one of five things referred to obliquely (deficit, not debt) on the party's website and Cameron apparently referred to it in his speech (which I can't remember anything about, in which I'm probably not alone). As I say, barely mentioned these days, for reasons we both know - (a) the debt is still going up briskly and (b) the public are not really engaged on the issue.
But perhaps you can point out speeches on the subject made by leading Tories in the last two weeks, say? Perhaps they're just under-reported?
But, since you ask, the centrepiece of George Osborne's conference speech was precisely about the longer-term need to run a budget surplus:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/30/george-osborne-freeze-fuel-duty-2015-budget-surplus
And, if you want a more recent example, according to Martin Kettle, Cameron made a big error by repeating the point last week:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/13/david-cameron-permanent-austerity-lose-election-2015
Do you follow politics?
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Whereas the reality from the all polls trend line is that the kipper vote fell after the May locals, slowed and bottomed out and may now be beginning to creep back up. Along with the tory correlation that saw them rise after the May locals which has now slowed and flattened out.NickPalmer said:fitalass suggested below that UKIP's popularity was falling, together with Farage's
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
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Obama has indeed got himself into quite the mess over the affordable health care act.
Which would matter a great deal more were there not a GOP war of the lunatics still raging.Big Government @biggovt 1h
The 'book' in question is pure Daily Show and Colbert satire.
Palin Book Tour Heads to Heart of Battle Between GOP Establishment, Tea Party: Former Alaska Governor Sarah Pa... http://bit.ly/1bKkYY4
"Good Tidings and Great Joy: Protecting the Heart of Christmas"
Christmas under attack!
*chortle*0 -
You pinko communist hippy.SeanT said:It had to happen. I've done a blog of which Nick Palmer would approve.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100246187/the-rhino-is-dying-thanks-to-tourists-from-china-and-vietnam-how-can-we-end-this-evil-trade/0 -
on topic - I would like to declare MORI the new gold standard for VI as well as leader ratings. Not published here but I believe from my mole on Borough Road that Natalie Bennet's leader ratings were +101%.0
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@Richard @Nick
The idea that the deficit is a salient issue is demonstrably untrue. Just because Cameron mentioned it in a speech or two doesn't make it salient. This is the same misconception Antifrank has been suffering from.
The reality is that not only do most of the public not care about the deficit, they don't even grasp what it is. Which is unsurprising for two key reasons:
1. The public know nothing about economics, chiefly because most of them are concerned with household budgeting issues rather than macroeconomic dynamics
2. Ozzy and friends have been conflating the debt and deficit, which only adds to the misconception that we are reducing the national debt.
Of course, the national debt will be twice that bequeathed under Labour by 2015*
*I am not commenting on the rights and wrongs of this, merely pointing it out as potentially surprising to the electorate.0 -
George has been down t'pit !
Twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/401383979414458368/photo/1/large0 -
@Bobajob - You're over-complicating it. The message will be 'Labour overspent. We're fixing it. Don't let them wreck it again'.
[BTW I did suggest to a Treasury minister that they should stop using the word 'deficit' and use 'overspend' instead.]0 -
You evil racist - blaming non white people..SeanT said:It had to happen. I've done a blog of which Nick Palmer would approve.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100246187/the-rhino-is-dying-thanks-to-tourists-from-china-and-vietnam-how-can-we-end-this-evil-trade/0 -
Indeed. Small problem.RichardNabavi said:@Bobajob - You're over-complicating it. The message will be 'Labour overspent. We're fixing it. Don't let them wreck it again'.
[BTW I did suggest to a Treasury minister that they should stop using the word 'deficit' and use 'overspend' instead.]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
How did that one manage to escape the comical Shapps purge of the archives and internet?0 -
Mick_Pork said:
Indeed. Small problem.RichardNabavi said:@Bobajob - You're over-complicating it. The message will be 'Labour overspent. We're fixing it. Don't let them wreck it again'.
[BTW I did suggest to a Treasury minister that they should stop using the word 'deficit' and use 'overspend' instead.]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
How did that one manage to escape the comical Shapps purge of the archives?
He's beaten that pledge – he is now spending more than Labour!Mick_Pork said:
Indeed. Small problem.RichardNabavi said:@Bobajob - You're over-complicating it. The message will be 'Labour overspent. We're fixing it. Don't let them wreck it again'.
[BTW I did suggest to a Treasury minister that they should stop using the word 'deficit' and use 'overspend' instead.]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
How did that one manage to escape the comical Shapps purge of the archives?
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Now this is surely the killer policy which would win Ed the election outright:
http://tinyurl.com/ow5h5uj
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George only cares about evil bankers oh wait..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24954274
"Chancellor George Osborne has announced a financial boost for former pit workers during a trip to one of England's remaining deep coal mines.
He said the government would guarantee 400 pit workers recently made redundant a free delivery of coal every year worth £1,300 or a £600 in cash instead.
A further 1,000 retired workers will also get help under a concessionary fuel scheme dating back to the 1980s."0 -
Apologies – there now seem to be no fewer than FOUR pictures of Ozzy on this thread!
Aaaaaaaaargh!0 -
In the last 2 weeks - snigger.... what in the run up to an Autumn (Winter) statement...NickPalmer said:
Yes. It's one of five things referred to obliquely (deficit, not debt) on the party's website and Cameron apparently referred to it in his speech (which I can't remember anything about, in which I'm probably not alone). As I say, barely mentioned these days, for reasons we both know - (a) the debt is still going up briskly and (b) the public are not really engaged on the issue.RichardNabavi said:
Really, Nick?NickPalmer said:Bringing down the level of debt? Barely mentioned these days.
http://www.conservatives.com/Splash.aspx
http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2013/10/david-camerons-speech-conservative-party-conference-2013-full-text
But perhaps you can point out speeches on the subject made by leading Tories in the last two weeks, say? Perhaps they're just under-reported?
let's see if this 'theory' holds once we've had that shall we... personally I think you are wishful thinking in the extreme
Mind you I'm a saddo who looks to find out the debt announcement every month!0 -
Well done Osborne ..more than a few PBers have done0
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"He has announced the creation of a ministry of supreme social happiness and stepped up controls on "profiteers"."RichardNabavi said:Now this is surely the killer policy which would win Ed the election outright:
http://tinyurl.com/ow5h5uj
"On Thursday Maduro announced the arrest of more than 100 "bourgeois" businessmen for alleged price-gouging. "They are barbaric, these capitalist parasites," the president thundered in the latest of his lengthy – and daily – speeches. "We have more than 100 of the bourgeoisie behind bars at the moment."
The government is preparing a law to limit Venezuelan businesses' profits to between 15 and 30% , he said."
It's Ed's 2015 manifesto - the Venezuelan bounder has nicked the best bits !!
And here's 2016 under Labour..
"other industries have collapsed as a result of price controls, government mismanagement and land appropriation."
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Wait until he's the Prime Minister!!!Bobajob said:Apologies – there now seem to be no fewer than FOUR pictures of Ozzy on this thread!
Aaaaaaaaargh!0 -
Surely Clegg has told Osbrowne by now that the only way to combat their toxicity is a radio phone in and not hilarious PR photoshoots?tim said:One for the laydees
@George_Osborne: Really enjoyed meeting the hardworking miners at Thoresby pit http://t.co/4CIpGVL4000 -
Many moons ago I was a member of Thoresby Colliery's junior brass band (I even won a trophy for playing the cornet!) -Do you think George will let me have some coal?0
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Maybe, but Ed Davey won't allow you to burn it.state_go_away said:Many moons ago I was a member of Thoresby Colliery's junior brass band (I even won a trophy for playing the cornet!) -Do you think George will let me have some coal?
0