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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two more polls this morning add to the big picture – Labour
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two more polls this morning add to the big picture – Labour’s lead is increasing
The most significant changes have been from the two long-established phone firms, Ipsos-MORI and ICM which saw drops for CON of 3% and 4% respectively.
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What were to happen if say next month, The Greens ended up third, and either the Lib Dems or UKIP were fifth?
UKIP, meanwhile, are now on their lowest level this year on 8%, tied with the Lib Dems (8%). The Green Party are now just one point behind these two on 7%.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3295/Half-of-Britons-feel-no-benefit-of-economic-growth.aspx
"There are rumours of more email revelations to come. And gradually the firewall separating Ed Miliband from what he once condemned as “the machine politics” of Falkirk is starting to smoulder. Those scapegoats could soon be needed."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100246077/labour-is-lining-up-scapegoats-for-the-falkirk-scandal/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I would say the lead has increased from 4-6% to 6-8%. The question will be where it will go next and whether the surge caused by Ed's spend someone else's money plan persists or fades way as the economic news continues to improve.
Still all to play for but advantage Labour at the moment.
That doesn't get posted here enough - for those of us who spend 15 mins a day nipping in, crucial titbits like that need to be repeated at least 5 times on each thread.
Maybe Ipsos-MORI happened to find a particularly grumpy sample this month.
Good luck on the next thread.
Have received a fund raising letter from my blue friends in the post, photos of Len, Ed B and Ed M the only ones on their flyer.... Nearly put me off my champers and prawn sarnies.
Though I did notice that Greens were aggressively downweighted in the Populus poll - perhaps that reflects a greater propensity to respond to internet polls than normal, and so a higher certainty to vote when talking to Mori pollsters?
ICM didn't show a Green surge, though I note UKIP had more voters in Wales than any other region in the Kingdom.
David Cameron is liked by 43%, and disliked by 52%. The Conservative party is liked by 39%, and disliked by 57%. The proportion liking the Conservative party has slightly increased from 35% in October 2012.
Ed Miliband is liked by 30% (down from 37% in October 2012), and disliked by 63%. The Labour party is liked by 49%, and disliked by 43%, which represents little change.
Nick Clegg is liked by 33% (up from 29% in October 2012), and disliked by 57%. The Liberal Democrat party is liked by 43% (up from 40%), and disliked by 47%.
Nigel Farage is liked by 27%, and disliked by 50%. The UK Independence Party is also liked by 25%, and disliked by 52%. Around one in four (22%) say they don’t know.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3245/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-August-2013.aspx
And that was after a coalition with the Tories …… the National Government.
Took 20 years to get back to reasonable levels!
I do wonder what Cleggs master plan can possibly be!
If you're going up via the M1, don't go via the Woodhead or Snake Pass, go up via Leeds M62 way.
M62 way is a bit longer, but ultimately quicker, than Woodhead or Snake Pass on Friday afternoon.
I've spent far too long of my life in Mottram on a Friday night
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/PolMon_Nov13_charts.pdf
Here are the changes from the Ipsos Mori poll from a year ago.
Con no change
Lab minus 8
LD minus 1
UKIP + 5
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3075/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-November-2012.aspx
Enjoy the gig, I'll be the chap in a pinstripe suit and brown shoes in Block 116 shouting and screaming like an idiot, and being disowned by the people next to me.
Hmm, so the Government is less popular than the year ago and opposition parties too - politicians are less popular. Still not sure how that is 'progress' for the Government. Polls take a long time to move substantially. I heard Portillo at an event this week say economic recovery was 'just in the nick of time' according to his Tory colleauges. My hunch is it is a little too late, but we will see.
@SamCoatesTimes strict turnout filter means MORI topline VI based on fewer people (468 today) which increases variation
Here's a suggestion - abolish the TV Licence Fee completely and absorb BBC funding into general taxation. Everyone would be happy not to have to pay it and the freeing up of time and costs in the courts (where a stupidly high share of minor cases are non-payment of TV licence related) would probably leave this revenue neutral.
Con minus 1
Lab plus 1
LD minus 1
UKIP minus 3
"Britain's population is growing faster than any other country's in Europe"
"added almost 420,000 people to Britain’s tally in a single year"
"Total population growth in Britain was two and a half times that experienced by Germany, which has itself experienced mass migration in recent years."
I wonders if this has any relevance to GDP?
(we had to use fountain pens for some insane reason, which led to endless mirth)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-U3jrS-uhuo
http://www.elistmania.com/still/18_hot_female_politicians/
No surprise at the drop in Nigel Farage's polling ratings after his most recent public outings, and that is I think now feeding into the drop in UKIP's ratings as well. There are already increased murmurings of the usual internal disunity which tends to follow an upsurge of new high profile figures emerging from within UKIP. You can almost set your clock by this cycle of bickering as those new to the internal workings of UKIP then come up against the intransigence of Farage when it comes to any attempts at modernising the party's operation. Especially if that might see him having to relinquish ulitimate control in what he has come to regard as his own personal fiefdom.
I voted Green at the locals, simply because the candidate was not a douchebag, unlike the others (you really shouldn't ask). But their policies simply do not have enough appeal here in the UK.
This is the latest and current thread.
On the first, there doesn't seem clear evidence of a UKIP drop - e.g. the 13% in today's YG is pretty good. Farage has dropped with the general public as the novelty wears off but the UKIP vote still seems pretty solid to me.
On the second - as David L says, the lead is up from 5ish to 8ish (after a short period when it was 2ish). FWIW I think it's about narrative. Labour's themes - cost of living, energy price freeze, living wage, NHS - have dominated public discussion, with even opponents feeling they needed to talk about them. That makes it easier to see Labour as an interesting government, implementing/changing policy on these issues, and confers a dangerous air of irrelevance on the current government, which doesn't seem to be about anything in particular at the moment.
Bringing down the level of debt? Barely mentioned these days.
Reforming schools? Seems to have got a bit messy.
Reorganising the NHS. Urgh, change the subject.
Introducing Universal Benefit: um, maybe later.
Instead, we get a series of quarter-baked ideas: maybe something will be done on energy, or mobile phones, or control orders, or marriage tax allowance, but then again maybe not, it all has to be discussed, ask us again next year.
This isn't to say that nothing is being done, but a sense of narrative is missing, and that's crucial to any government as without it things gradually fall apart. The Tory strategy seems to be falling back on "Stop Labour!" which will IMO not prove sufficient.
http://www.conservatives.com/Splash.aspx
http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2013/10/david-camerons-speech-conservative-party-conference-2013-full-text
Rachel Reeves
Stella Creasy
Gloria del Piero
Luciana Berger
Nadine Dorries (!!)
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel
Average vote shares at the 4 by-elections held on 14 Nov were: LAB 31.35%, #UKIP 26.65%, CON 20.33%. LDEMs stood in only 3 (av. vote 6.9%).
I don't think any of our pollsters have handled the UKIP phenom properly; Ipsos-Mori and Populus least of all.
Really though, when is this "swingback" supposed to happen? Even though the evidence for it is patchy at best, Tories do seem to put a lot of faith in it, so is there a timetable? At the moment we're seeing, er, Swingaway.
Lots of embedded clips in the article – The ‘Withnail & I’ pub scene is a classic and comes with an “warning, adult content” - Arf.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10447157/The-10-best-drinking-scenes-on-film.html
Just in time for one of calamity Clegg's many public relations fightbacks. LOL
When Farage is taking the moral high ground over Clegg you know that must have went down well with the lib dem grass roots. (those that are still left of course)
But perhaps you can point out speeches on the subject made by leading Tories in the last two weeks, say? Perhaps they're just under-reported?
But I take your point - and as Mr Nabavi points out, there could be ramifications for Ms Clinton’s election hopes, if she does indeed decide to run.
Crosby's more likely to put some gay disabled brown people on a poster with a strapline asking "are you thinking what we're thinking?"
But, since you ask, the centrepiece of George Osborne's conference speech was precisely about the longer-term need to run a budget surplus:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/30/george-osborne-freeze-fuel-duty-2015-budget-surplus
And, if you want a more recent example, according to Martin Kettle, Cameron made a big error by repeating the point last week:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/13/david-cameron-permanent-austerity-lose-election-2015
Do you follow politics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Which would matter a great deal more were there not a GOP war of the lunatics still raging. The 'book' in question is pure Daily Show and Colbert satire.
"Good Tidings and Great Joy: Protecting the Heart of Christmas"
Christmas under attack!
*chortle*
The idea that the deficit is a salient issue is demonstrably untrue. Just because Cameron mentioned it in a speech or two doesn't make it salient. This is the same misconception Antifrank has been suffering from.
The reality is that not only do most of the public not care about the deficit, they don't even grasp what it is. Which is unsurprising for two key reasons:
1. The public know nothing about economics, chiefly because most of them are concerned with household budgeting issues rather than macroeconomic dynamics
2. Ozzy and friends have been conflating the debt and deficit, which only adds to the misconception that we are reducing the national debt.
Of course, the national debt will be twice that bequeathed under Labour by 2015*
*I am not commenting on the rights and wrongs of this, merely pointing it out as potentially surprising to the electorate.
Twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/401383979414458368/photo/1/large
[BTW I did suggest to a Treasury minister that they should stop using the word 'deficit' and use 'overspend' instead.]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
How did that one manage to escape the comical Shapps purge of the archives and internet?
http://tinyurl.com/ow5h5uj
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24954274
"Chancellor George Osborne has announced a financial boost for former pit workers during a trip to one of England's remaining deep coal mines.
He said the government would guarantee 400 pit workers recently made redundant a free delivery of coal every year worth £1,300 or a £600 in cash instead.
A further 1,000 retired workers will also get help under a concessionary fuel scheme dating back to the 1980s."
Aaaaaaaaargh!
let's see if this 'theory' holds once we've had that shall we... personally I think you are wishful thinking in the extreme
Mind you I'm a saddo who looks to find out the debt announcement every month!
"On Thursday Maduro announced the arrest of more than 100 "bourgeois" businessmen for alleged price-gouging. "They are barbaric, these capitalist parasites," the president thundered in the latest of his lengthy – and daily – speeches. "We have more than 100 of the bourgeoisie behind bars at the moment."
The government is preparing a law to limit Venezuelan businesses' profits to between 15 and 30% , he said."
It's Ed's 2015 manifesto - the Venezuelan bounder has nicked the best bits !!
And here's 2016 under Labour..
"other industries have collapsed as a result of price controls, government mismanagement and land appropriation."