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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Playing it long. When will this Parliament end?
This Parliament likely to go full 5 year distance. Only 2 by elections in Tory seats in 2010-2015 Parliament, excluding UKIP defectors. 1/2
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Well it is for us Labourites.
Apparently today is Have a Bath Day.
I don't know why we need a 'have a bath' day, or why it only comes around once a year, but nevertheless trust that all PB'ers will be suitably clean by the end of the day.
My bet is that May goes in the summer but the next election won't be until 2019 at the earliest.
12:24PM
JosiasJessop said:
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Earlier in this thread, LadyBucket said:
I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.
You replied:
Because it is true.
Or have I got the wrong end of t'stick?
I am on my phone and was skimming the thread, I meant it's true that there are cuts to operational firefighting, but not specifically related to this case, although that may turn out differently once the inquiry is done! The perils of a fast moving thread and using a phone to post, I guess. I can see how you interpreted that comment, tho
I can see several Tory, Remainers and Leavers, who could protest at the actions of the government on Brexit and quit the whip and sit as Independents.
On balance (though you can never rule anything out with my party) I think the memories of what happened in 1997 should largely bind it together.
So for example if the DUP push for a soft Brexit and get their way, would the awkward squad of Tory MPs meekly go along with it?
Clarke, Soubry, Morgan etc. never would.
A zero failure rate on discipline for 5 years doesn't seem plausible.
Admittedly, you can apparently maintain a conspiracy of 2,521 people for 5 years, and here it only needs to be about 325 - but it's a tough ask.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jan/26/secret-success-equations-give-calculations-for-keeping-conspiracies-quiet
I'm on another 2017 GE at about 3.85.
As for Yougov Survation at the weekend had voters opposing another election by 49% to 40% and once Brexit talks get underway the likelihood of another election recedes further while they are ongoing
I'd say, very little other than Finance and Brexit bills. The former will be negotiated heavily pre-vote, the latter during the votes.
Possibly a Heathrow bill and a heavily watered down Education bill as well.
Well it'll need to be close to 100% on every single vote. It may not be such a big problem for the next two years when domestic policy is put on the back burner whilst the government deals with Brexit but I can't see a government which struggles to pass anything remotely divisive lasting five years.
I see a late 2019/early 2020 election with each party campaigning on their post Brexit vision.
I imagine certain Tory MPs will be wined and dined by all factions on issues such as the customs union, SEM, professional lobbyists representing banks, euro focussed big business etc I reckon have already got a list of favourable MPs from all parties who will be ruthlessly targetted - and not just Ken Clarke who is now enjoying an Osborne type Springtime.
I think May will have less trouble from the hard brexiteers than expected as they know that if the government collapses, there is the prospect of the LDs and SNP being in coalition with Lab and watering Brexit down
A full clean break won't work. Neither will a Brexit in name only.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ed-balls-predicts-another-election-next-year-to-break-brexit-deadlock-a7787536.html
Now seems far more unstable potentially than that situation. You had the Conservatives and Lib Dems united in trying to cope after the financial collapse, this time you have Brexit and the splits in the Conservative party and the country at large over what type of Brexit it has to be.
How well Brexit is going will dictate how long it lasts.
A lot depends how long May stays in power. If she falls soonish, then the new leader will prob have to call an election. If she can last until 2022sh then maybe.
Boris the liar vs Corbyn the sincere? wont go well.
This is their Zama.
Please don't tell me he's going to pull that stunt again?
eh?
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
It is also much easier to keep a minority together coming from opposition, rather than from a majority position.
If it makes it through 2018, then I will be surprised.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
You're right, there's a real risk of it.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK"."
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
I bang on about Enoch, but the Tories won the 1970 election because of his speech. Contemporary opinion polls showed massive majority for his view
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
(Great quote by Rimmer - "Why are you depressed? Ahhhh... it's November isn't it. Nearly time for your bath")
I'm also saying the DUP will be very unlikely to pull the plug if it leads to a Corbyn-led Labour Government, from which they might expect to reap the whirlwind, but might do so if a mainstream Labour leader were elected instead.
Or is this actually the result needed for the defence of the realm?
Infact many were ex-libdems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDMzaa3msrY
"...four different opinion polls, Gallup, ORC, NOP and Daily Express, all recorded overwhelming public support for him. Gallup recorded 74%, ORC 82%, NOP 67% and the Express 79%. The corresponding opinion figures against were 15%, 12%, 19% and 17%. On the question of whether Heath had been right to dismiss him, three of the same polls, in the same order, gave the figures for Heath as 20%, 18% and 25% and against him 69%, 73% and 61%. The Daily Express poll did not ask about the dismissal."
http://www.ukapologetics.net/11/powell.htm
Scalise, the House Majority Whip, was at the field with other House Republicans when the gunman opened fire on the 400 block of East Monroe St., police in Alexandria, Va., said.
He and other Congress members were practicing for the Congressional Baseball Game, which is scheduled for Thursday night at Nationals Park.
Congressional aides were also shot, Fox News reported.
Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, was shot in the hip, according to reports.
The shooter is believed to be in custody, police said.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/house-majority-whip-steve-scalise-shot-va-baseball-field-article-1.3246505
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
The computer it says "no" .
Capitalism by definition can only work with the free movement of capital and labour. The party of capitalism now wants only free movement of capital, not of labour. Meanwhile, the party of socialism wants the free movement of labour.
I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
I can see a route to the next General Election being in every year between now and 2022 (consulting tea leaves - far better than polls you see).
An Autumn election - easy - DUP deal collapses. Corbyn goes for no-confidence motion and gets it.
2018 election - As above, albeit the DUP deal lasts a few months into next year.
A 2019 election - Brexit happens and the government, barely able to hold it together just let it go and hold an October 2019 election.
A 2020 election - Brexit happens, new Conservative leader in September 2019 and they go to the country in May 2020 (ironic).
A 2021 election - somehow the government get all the above done, before by-election defeats just do them in by 2021.
A 2022 election - Government manage to go the whole distance and restrict by-election defeats.
I agree by-election defeats are unlikely, but we are potentially starring at one already. Craig MacKinley in South Thanet. Labour are in second place now again and could take the seat. We could see the Conservative seat total down to 316 before the autumn.
A deal with the DUP is likely to only be Confidence and Supply, and whilst that is enough for that sort of thing, can you see the endless comedy of MPs debating stuff but not voting on anything because it might be defeated. A yearly vote on the budget and nothing else?
I agree an early election is unlikely... but I doubt the next General Election will happen in May 2022. I suspect the government will be forced to go in either 2020 or 2021.
Of course, I'm probably talking a whole load of rubbish. What do we really know anyway?
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_59410ecbe4b09ad4fbe45929/amp
https://t.co/G20RHOE5vH
Alien v Predator. Whoever wins, we lose.
1. Theresa May is an electoral disaster, there's no way we want to go into another election under her leadership.
2. However, there's no obvious replacement, so a swift defenestration isn't on the cards. In any case, we need her to remain so she can take all the blame.
3. Things are hugely complicated by the Article 50 ticking clock, so we have to grit our teeth and carry on until May 2019.
4. Once we pass that milestone, ditch Theresa and hold a proper leadership election. With a bit of luck, someone will emerge who can plausibly be presented to the electorate as a new direction, and all the opprobium can be left attached to the outgoing management. By then also with a bit more luck the Corbyn project will be falling apart under the weight of its own absurdities.
So, a leadership election in 2019, and an election a few months after that would seem a reasonable outline plan for Tory MPs.
Of course, this might all be overtaken by events, and it does depend on the DUP being content with such Danegeld as can be decently shoved in their direction. It's also optimistic in the sense that it requires everything to go right. and things might go very wrong indeed. But you can see that something along the above lines would be what they'd be hoping to engineer.
Well it did come down a chunk the last time the figures were released. That was during the campaign I think. They could have paraded them but barely mentioned them.
The public have always wanted less immigration, when they got a referendum they voted for it. Madness not to major on it, esp against hard left.
https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/874944410714243072