Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
By putting their own dangerous lunatic in there and hoping no one notices the difference ?
Hhhmmm .... Boris a shrinking violet ....
The computer it says "no" .
Indeed but as long as Corbyn leads Labour the DUP will back the Tories and if the choice is 'John Major without the charisma' or Corbyn and McDonnell socialism the middle class may stick with Hammond in the end, especially if he dumps the dementia tax and eases off a little on austerity
Don't look at the DUP entirely through the prism of Jezza. If Labour look on course for the win and the DUP are damaged by their Tory pact then they'll want to keep seats with a Labour government rather than lose more seats with a Labour government.
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
Nige wouldn't be able to resist it would he ? I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
The Tories got 51% in Thanet South last Thursday, Labour 38% and UKIP 6% so there is no reason the Tories could not hold it even if there is a swing to Labour
If Farage stands, Labour wins.
Farage could win Labour votes as well as Tory as he did in 2015 when he came second to the Tories in a seat Labour held from 1997 to 2010
Pretty awful post, and pretty awful source. We'll know all the details soon but I suspect this is a problem with the building rather than the number of police officers.
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
Nige wouldn't be able to resist it would he ? I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
The Tories got 51% in Thanet South last Thursday, Labour 38% and UKIP 6% so there is no reason the Tories could not hold it even if there is a swing to Labour
If Farage stands, Labour wins.
Farage could win Labour votes as well as Tory
I notice the PB Tories have the same level of complacency as they did before the election. So many theories about how different sets of people will vote.
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
By putting their own dangerous lunatic in there and hoping no one notices the difference ?
Hhhmmm .... Boris a shrinking violet ....
The computer it says "no" .
Indeed but as long as Corbyn leads Labour the DUP will back the Tories and if the choice is 'John Major without the charisma' or Corbyn and McDonnell socialism the middle class may stick with Hammond in the end, especially if he dumps the dementia tax and eases off a little on austerity
Don't look at the DUP entirely through the prism of Jezza. If Labour look on course for the win and the DUP are damaged by their Tory pact then they'll want to keep seats with a Labour government rather than lose more seats with a Labour government.
Which kind of suggests the DUP will quickly detach themselves from the Tories after brexit so 2020 (oh the irony) comes into play.
I just can't see May going the distance, and if she gets replaced, there'll be a clamour against an "unelected" PM. For me, it looks like PM Jezza and payrise all around for us! Huzzah!
With inflation at 2.9% and rising many in the public sector will be requiring a wage rise. Do not see them getting one though.However surely interest rates will rise causing a never ending squeeze on incomes for many.
May is already talking about easing up on austerity, public sector pay rises in line with inflation but not above it is possible
Yes I would agree with that to keep up with inflation will be a challenge.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
Irony is Corbyn's IRA support didn't hinder him with the electorate anywhere near as much as the Tories had hoped and expected but it will mean he's unlikely to get a shot at No. 10 for five years at least
Yes, it has cemented the Unionists in NI behind the Tories
What if Corbyn stands down in favour of his chosen successor. Assuming the successor is not tinged with past IRA comments (i.e choose Clive Lewis not McDonnell) - the DUP would have less of a reason to try and block Labour. They would probably try and play both sides off against each other to see who can offer them the most.
I agree generally with the article except that if May leaves before 2020 there will be an early election shortly after her successor takes office. They would be accused of being scared and having no confidence in their ability to win if they refused to call an early election, which would be fatal.
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
By putting their own dangerous lunatic in there and hoping no one notices the difference ?
Hhhmmm .... Boris a shrinking violet ....
The computer it says "no" .
Indeed but as long as Corbyn leads Labour the DUP will back the Tories and if the choice is 'John Major without the charisma' or Corbyn and McDonnell socialism the middle class may stick with Hammond in the end, especially if he dumps the dementia tax and eases off a little on austerity
Don't look at the DUP entirely through the prism of Jezza. If Labour look on course for the win and the DUP are damaged by their Tory pact then they'll want to keep seats with a Labour government rather than lose more seats with a Labour government.
The DUP voting for a Sinn Fein ally like Corbyn would lose them votes in Ulster not gain them votes, until Labour pick a more moderate leader than Corbyn then the DUP will back the Tories
They are literally called "the conservative and unionist party" this should go without saying. yes, ofcourse the Tories have a view of whether N.Ireland should be in the Union or not.
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
Nige wouldn't be able to resist it would he ? I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
The Tories got 51% in Thanet South last Thursday, Labour 38% and UKIP 6% so there is no reason the Tories could not hold it even if there is a swing to Labour
If Farage stands, Labour wins.
Farage could win Labour votes as well as Tory
I notice the PB Tories have the same level of complacency as they did before the election. So many theories about how different sets of people will vote.
No simple fact, Farage beat Labour in Thanet South in 2015
I just can't see May going the distance, and if she gets replaced, there'll be a clamour against an "unelected" PM. For me, it looks like PM Jezza and payrise all around for us! Huzzah!
With inflation at 2.9% and rising many in the public sector will be requiring a wage rise. Do not see them getting one though.However surely interest rates will rise causing a never ending squeeze on incomes for many.
May is already talking about easing up on austerity, public sector pay rises in line with inflation but not above it is possible
Yes I would agree with that to keep up with inflation will be a challenge.
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up. The public ALWAYS want less immigration. Even the people you think might not want less, do
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK"."
I bang on about Enoch, but the Tories won the 1970 election because of his speech. Contemporary opinion polls showed massive majority for his view
What a depressing post!
Are you suggesting that the Tories are back in the driving seat if they go 'full-Nazi' over immigration?
Much as I detest Corbyn, I believe he is the lesser evil than the baggage that would come with what I am (maybe incorrectly) assuming you are proposing.
Looking at this from the point of view of Conservative MPs, what would they regard as the best outcome? I'd have thought their thinking would be something like this:
1. Theresa May is an electoral disaster, there's no way we want to go into another election under her leadership.
2. However, there's no obvious replacement, so a swift defenestration isn't on the cards. In any case, we need her to remain so she can take all the blame.
3. Things are hugely complicated by the Article 50 ticking clock, so we have to grit our teeth and carry on until May 2019.
4. Once we pass that milestone, ditch Theresa and hold a proper leadership election. With a bit of luck, someone will emerge who can plausibly be presented to the electorate as a new direction, and all the opprobium can be left attached to the outgoing management. By then also with a bit more luck the Corbyn project will be falling apart under the weight of its own absurdities.
So, a leadership election in 2019, and an election a few months after that would seem a reasonable outline plan for Tory MPs.
Of course, this might all be overtaken by events, and it does depend on the DUP being content with such Danegeld as can be decently shoved in their direction. It's also optimistic in the sense that it requires everything to go right. and things might go very wrong indeed. But you can see that something along the above lines would be what they'd be hoping to engineer.
The Tories calling another early general election seen to be in their own party interest ?!?
Hhhmmm ....
The Tories should have grasped the nettle straight away. As Cameron did, May should have announced her resignation as Tory leader immediately. Instead we have the pitiful sight of a lame duck PM waddling from crisis to crisis as her critics circle for the inevitable kill.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
Irony is Corbyn's IRA support didn't hinder him with the electorate anywhere near as much as the Tories had hoped and expected but it will mean he's unlikely to get a shot at No. 10 for five years at least
Yes, it has cemented the Unionists in NI behind the Tories
What if Corbyn stands down in favour of his chosen successor. Assuming the successor is not tinged with past IRA comments (i.e choose Clive Lewis not McDonnell) - the DUP would have less of a reason to try and block Labour. They would probably try and play both sides off against each other to see who can offer them the most.
I agree generally with the article except that if May leaves before 2020 there will be an early election shortly after her successor takes office. They would be accused of being scared and having no confidence in their ability to win if they refused to call an early election, which would be fatal.
Corbyn is not going anywhere until the next general election when he now has a shot at PM and Major did not call an election until 1992 after taking over in 1990 but still narrowly won it
This is what I said yesterday and why we didn't see much of Hammond, et al nor Major and Cameron.
On the advice of the campaign consultants, and following opinion research that showed Theresa to be far more popular than the party or her colleagues, we eschewed our instincts. We were wrong to do so.
1. The DUP deal (assuming there is one) is open to legal challenge as it may well contravene the Good Friday Agreement. Do we expect Sinn Fein to merrily go along with it? Most likely they will be already getting their lawyers to sharpen their pencils, as indicated last night on Channel 4 news.
2. There could be defections, as others have mentioned (most likely to the Liberals). Less likely than likely, but very possible, particular if, as is likely, the Tories become deeply unpopular very soon.
3. The DUP may very soon be tainted by Tory shambling. As soon as they sniff that, they will dump the government.
I think point one is worthy of much greater discussion. It might be that it doesn't matter, and that the DUP keep propping up the government no matter what. Or it might not.
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
Our man up the ladder @TwistedFireStopper has said that in London resources aren't an issue (around the country perhaps they are).
So in fact you are making your case worse, not that you lefties ever listen to logic or facts, because if there have been cuts in London, then they haven't affected the capacity of the LFB to respond to tragedies such as this one (on the scene within six minutes), and hence those cuts were perfectly justified.
It would be interesting if their was a by election and farage stood how his version of brexit is fairing outside of the westminster bubble. It would also force all parties to come clean on their hoped for outcomes.
1. The DUP deal (assuming there is one) is open to legal challenge as it may well contravene the Good Friday Agreement. Do we expect Sinn Fein to merrily go along with it? Most likely they will be already getting their lawyers to sharpen their pencils, as indicated last night on Channel 4 news.
2. There could be defections, as others have mentioned (most likely to the Liberals). Less likely than likely, but very possible, particular if, as is likely, the Tories become deeply unpopular very soon.
3. The DUP may very soon be tainted by Tory shambling. As soon as they sniff that, they will dump the government.
I think point one is worthy of much greater discussion. It might be that it doesn't matter, and that the DUP keep propping up the government no matter what. Or it might not.
Sinn Fein refused to powershare with the DUP months ago so cannot complain about the Good Friday agreement given they have effectively broken it themselves. The DUP will also never put Corbyn in
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
The 318 Tory MPs can't be unelected though, won't dissolve, and are very unlikely to die out or quit in significant numbers.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
Bedblocking Labour is short-term expediency which is likely to lead to a Labour majority government as the May attempts to cobble together deals on a vote-by-vote basis, to the tune of growing dissent from the backbenches, Scotland, Wales and everywhere else that perceives itself to be paying for largesse to N Ireland - before we even get into the difficulties of Brexit.
Better to go into opposition now, let Corbyn be seen to fail in government (as must inevitably be the case for a party in such a weak position, never mind one led by someone with no experience of, or temperament for, government). Then bring Labour down at a time of the Tories' choosing.
The Tories should have grasped the nettle straight away. As Cameron did, May should have announced her resignation as Tory leader immediately. Instead we have the pitiful sight of a lame duck PM waddling from crisis to crisis as her critics circle for the inevitable kill.
That was my initial reaction, but is there time for a full leadership contest with the Article 50 clock ticking? Alternatively, a men-in-grey-suits stitch-up has its own downsides, the biggest of which is the lack of an obvious alternative PM who could rapidly get a grip on the party, the government and the Brexit negotiations.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up. The public ALWAYS want less immigration. Even the people you think might not want less, do
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK"."
I bang on about Enoch, but the Tories won the 1970 election because of his speech. Contemporary opinion polls showed massive majority for his view
What a depressing post!
Are you suggesting that the Tories are back in the driving seat if they go 'full-Nazi' over immigration?
Much as I detest Corbyn, I believe he is the lesser evil than the baggage that would come with what I am (maybe incorrectly) assuming you are proposing.
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
Nige wouldn't be able to resist it would he ? I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
The Tories got 51% in Thanet South last Thursday, Labour 38% and UKIP 6% so there is no reason the Tories could not hold it even if there is a swing to Labour
If Farage stands, Labour wins.
Farage could win Labour votes as well as Tory
I notice the PB Tories have the same level of complacency as they did before the election. So many theories about how different sets of people will vote.
No simple fact, Farage beat Labour in Thanet South in 2015
In Kent Labour did better on the coastal fringes -Thanet North & South, Dover/Deal and Folkestone/Hythe than inland (apart from Canterbury). Dartford for example recorded a slight swing to the Tories and places like Maidstone and Tonbridge saw increased Tory majorities. Oddly the coastal fringes in Sussex in unlikely places like Worthing also saw large pro-Lab swings.
If Farage stands Labour would almost certainly come through the middle and win the by-election. Another kipper would be less problematic for the Tories but given the awkward circumstances a Lab win must still be favourite.
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
The 318 Tory MPs can't be unelected though, won't dissolve, and are very unlikely to die out or quit in significant numbers.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
Bedblocking Labour is short-term expediency which is likely to lead to a Labour majority government as the May attempts to cobble together deals on a vote-by-vote basis, to the tune of growing dissent from the backbenches, Scotland, Wales and everywhere else that perceives itself to be paying for largesse to N Ireland - before we even get into the difficulties of Brexit.
Better to go into opposition now, let Corbyn be seen to fail in government (as must inevitably be the case for a party in such a weak position, never mind one led by someone with no experience of, or temperament for, government). Then bring Labour down at a time of the Tories' choosing.
I think this is probably the best option but it has two major risks. The first is that Corbyn's reputation may be enhanced if he is able to go into a GE saying "I said it would be difficult but reluctantly agreed to become PM and try and govern in the national interest - but the Tories have now forced this election on us" (etc) - leading to a Labour win. The second is that, due to the first risk, the Tories will never choose a time to bring down the government effectively allowing Labour a clear run for 5 years as long as they don't do anything too outlandish.
There is very little chance of a general election before a Tory leadership election and I don't get the impression that anyone fancies the job. Therefore surely not before Brexit. Then it would depend on the polling. I'm not convinced the Corbgasm will last so wouldn't rule out a 2019 election. Pretty confident at this stage the Parliament will last two years. Not a scooby after that
1. The DUP deal (assuming there is one) is open to legal challenge as it may well contravene the Good Friday Agreement. Do we expect Sinn Fein to merrily go along with it? Most likely they will be already getting their lawyers to sharpen their pencils, as indicated last night on Channel 4 news.
2. There could be defections, as others have mentioned (most likely to the Liberals). Less likely than likely, but very possible, particular if, as is likely, the Tories become deeply unpopular very soon.
3. The DUP may very soon be tainted by Tory shambling. As soon as they sniff that, they will dump the government.
I think point one is worthy of much greater discussion. It might be that it doesn't matter, and that the DUP keep propping up the government no matter what. Or it might not.
Sinn Fein refused to powershare with the DUP months ago so cannot complain about the Good Friday agreement given they have effectively broken it themselves. The DUP will also never put Corbyn in
Er no, they refused to powershare with Foster specifically who had presided over the Cash for Ash scandal and wasted vast amounts of public money due to rank incompetence.
The Tories should have grasped the nettle straight away. As Cameron did, May should have announced her resignation as Tory leader immediately. Instead we have the pitiful sight of a lame duck PM waddling from crisis to crisis as her critics circle for the inevitable kill.
That was my initial reaction, but is there time for a full leadership contest with the Article 50 clock ticking? Alternatively, a men-in-grey-suits stitch-up has its own downsides, the biggest of which is the lack of an obvious alternative PM who could rapidly get a grip on the party, the government and the Brexit negotiations.
The Conservatives have wasted almost a year now. If one wanted an example of drift and dither one could hardly have had a better example than the government reaction to the BREXIT vote.
I said at the time that May should have announced Article 50 would be invoked on 31 Dec 2016 with the UK leaving on 31st Dec 2018, if necessary after a resolution of both houses of parliament soon after the vote. Absolute certainty was required. Instead the EU are faced with a weak and fatally wounded PM with no mandate and with a febrile HoC desirous of multiple solutions.
Our man up the ladder @TwistedFireStopper has said that in London resources aren't an issue (around the country perhaps they are).
So in fact you are making your case worse, not that you lefties ever listen to logic or facts, because if there have been cuts in London, then they haven't affected the capacity of the LFB to respond to tragedies such as this one (on the scene within six minutes), and hence those cuts were perfectly justified.
Bitch Dick.
Did you read the article before you came up with your right-wing drivel. Boris was warned by the FBU. Fire Stations were closed.
How many fire engines came in 6 minutes ? One or ten ?
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
The more I think about it, the more I realise Theresa May really did shit the bed for the Tories both in the short term and long term.
Depends what you mean by long term. Sooner or later Labour are going to be back in power. The Tories can't and won't monopolise power forever. When Labour get back in it's going to be a lefty Labour party, not a middle ground one. And that will end the way it always does. And lead to a new Tory government. The problem for the country is that having an enthusisatically lefty spendy Labour government in power for a few years is going to push our debt to levels we will only ever be able to resolve through inflation. The pound willtank and interest rates will be back with a vengeance. And mass unemployment. So the Tories will be back soon enough. UK plc maybe not so much.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
329 votes, for now.
For now. Including Lady Hermon.
Yet the DUP Pact is open to legal challenge.
Even if DUP could not vote for Tories then neither could SF for Labour and Tories would still have more votes than Labour +SNP+LD+Plaid+Green combined
Very disappointing the first instinct of many is to play party politics with this tragedy.
This one of the few times I agreed with Plato - those who accuse others of "playing politics" after events like these are usually trying to shut down discussion of awkward truths.
Our man up the ladder @TwistedFireStopper has said that in London resources aren't an issue (around the country perhaps they are).
So in fact you are making your case worse, not that you lefties ever listen to logic or facts, because if there have been cuts in London, then they haven't affected the capacity of the LFB to respond to tragedies such as this one (on the scene within six minutes), and hence those cuts were perfectly justified.
Bitch Dick.
Did you read the article before you came up with your right-wing drivel. Boris was warned by the FBU. Fire Stations were closed.
How many fire engines came in 6 minutes ? One or ten ?
Unions in arguing against cutbacks shock.
I'm sure you would have preferred 500 fire engines to turn up, right?
As far as I can see when it comes to listening to you or @TwistedFireStopper with regard to cuts to the fire service, I am going with him.
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
By putting their own dangerous lunatic in there and hoping no one notices the difference ?
Hhhmmm .... Boris a shrinking violet ....
The computer it says "no" .
Indeed but as long as Corbyn leads Labour the DUP will back the Tories and if the choice is 'John Major without the charisma' or Corbyn and McDonnell socialism the middle class may stick with Hammond in the end, especially if he dumps the dementia tax and eases off a little on austerity
Don't look at the DUP entirely through the prism of Jezza. If Labour look on course for the win and the DUP are damaged by their Tory pact then they'll want to keep seats with a Labour government rather than lose more seats with a Labour government.
I think that's rubbish. They would lose more support if they help put Corbyn in than I can foresee in any other circumstance.
IRA support might not be that big a deal in GB. But among NI Unionist voters... er. It is.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
329 votes, for now.
For now. Including Lady Hermon.
Yet the DUP Pact is open to legal challenge.
Even if DUP could not vote for Tories then neither could SF for Labour and Tories would still have more votes than Labour +SNP+LD+Plaid+Green combined
1. The DUP deal (assuming there is one) is open to legal challenge as it may well contravene the Good Friday Agreement. Do we expect Sinn Fein to merrily go along with it? Most likely they will be already getting their lawyers to sharpen their pencils, as indicated last night on Channel 4 news.
2. There could be defections, as others have mentioned (most likely to the Liberals). Less likely than likely, but very possible, particular if, as is likely, the Tories become deeply unpopular very soon.
3. The DUP may very soon be tainted by Tory shambling. As soon as they sniff that, they will dump the government.
I think point one is worthy of much greater discussion. It might be that it doesn't matter, and that the DUP keep propping up the government no matter what. Or it might not.
Sinn Fein refused to powershare with the DUP months ago so cannot complain about the Good Friday agreement given they have effectively broken it themselves. The DUP will also never put Corbyn in
Er no, they refused to powershare with Foster specifically who had presided over the Cash for Ash scandal and wasted vast amounts of public money due to rank incompetence.
Yet since then the people of NI have still twice given Foster most votes and seats and still SF will not work with them
Sounds like a load of Muslim lads stormed into a burning building and saved lives.
TBC.
My friend lives 3 streets away in Kensington apparently, she is fine but her house is just outside the police cordon. I was surprised she'd voted in Kensington as she certainly isn't rich, and was slightly concerned she might be living in the tower block...
Sounds like a load of Muslim lads stormed into a burning building and saved lives.
TBC.
My friend lives 3 streets away in Kensington apparently, she is fine but her house is just outside the police cordon. I was surprised she'd voted in Kensington as she certainly isn't rich, and was slightly concerned she might be living in the tower block...
"Somehow we have reached a point where older people with assets expect younger, poorer people to pay for their care."
But this is the very point of the conservative party.
F*ck the young and the poor as hard as possible.
Yeah, bastards. I mean you wouldn't catch the Tories trying to take benefits away from millionaire oldies, or the Labour Party fighting to let them keep them. Eh?
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
329 votes, for now.
For now. Including Lady Hermon.
Yet the DUP Pact is open to legal challenge.
Even if DUP could not vote for Tories then neither could SF for Labour and Tories would still have more votes than Labour +SNP+LD+Plaid+Green combined
The more I think about it, the more I realise Theresa May really did shit the bed for the Tories both in the short term and long term.
Depends what you mean by long term. Sooner or later Labour are going to be back in power. The Tories can't and won't monopolise power forever. When Labour get back in it's going to be a lefty Labour party, not a middle ground one. And that will end the way it always does. And lead to a new Tory government. The problem for the country is that having an enthusisatically lefty spendy Labour government in power for a few years is going to push our debt to levels we will only ever be able to resolve through inflation. The pound willtank and interest rates will be back with a vengeance. And mass unemployment. So the Tories will be back soon enough. UK plc maybe not so much.
You may be correct, although I suspect you believed something like you have predicted above in 1997.
1. The DUP deal (assuming there is one) is open to legal challenge as it may well contravene the Good Friday Agreement. Do we expect Sinn Fein to merrily go along with it? Most likely they will be already getting their lawyers to sharpen their pencils, as indicated last night on Channel 4 news.
2. There could be defections, as others have mentioned (most likely to the Liberals). Less likely than likely, but very possible, particular if, as is likely, the Tories become deeply unpopular very soon.
3. The DUP may very soon be tainted by Tory shambling. As soon as they sniff that, they will dump the government.
I think point one is worthy of much greater discussion. It might be that it doesn't matter, and that the DUP keep propping up the government no matter what. Or it might not.
Sinn Fein refused to powershare with the DUP months ago so cannot complain about the Good Friday agreement given they have effectively broken it themselves. The DUP will also never put Corbyn in
Er no, they refused to powershare with Foster specifically who had presided over the Cash for Ash scandal and wasted vast amounts of public money due to rank incompetence.
Yet since then the people of NI have still twice given Foster most votes and seats and still SF will not work with them
The deeply sectarian nature of NI politics (regrettably) means the public will vote for deepest orange or deepest green to keep out the other. This has everything to do with bigotry and sectarian nativism and precious little to do with the people running the parties.
The Conservatives have wasted almost a year now. If one wanted an example of drift and dither one could hardly have had a better example than the government reaction to the BREXIT vote.
I said at the time that May should have announced Article 50 would be invoked on 31 Dec 2016 with the UK leaving on 31st Dec 2018, if necessary after a resolution of both houses of parliament soon after the vote. Absolute certainty was required. Instead the EU are faced with a weak and fatally wounded PM with no mandate and with a febrile HoC desirous of multiple solutions.
The worst negotiating position possible.
All that is true (except I don't think Article 50 being invoked in May rather than December made much difference).
However, we are where we are. The question now is how to minimise the damage from Theresa May's catastrophic general election disaster. There are certainly no good options.
Our man up the ladder @TwistedFireStopper has said that in London resources aren't an issue (around the country perhaps they are).
So in fact you are making your case worse, not that you lefties ever listen to logic or facts, because if there have been cuts in London, then they haven't affected the capacity of the LFB to respond to tragedies such as this one (on the scene within six minutes), and hence those cuts were perfectly justified.
Bitch Dick.
Did you read the article before you came up with your right-wing drivel. Boris was warned by the FBU. Fire Stations were closed.
How many fire engines came in 6 minutes ? One or ten ?
Unions in arguing against cutbacks shock.
I'm sure you would have preferred 500 fire engines to turn up, right?
As far as I can see when it comes to listening to you or @TwistedFireStopper with regard to cuts to the fire service, I am going with him.
Edit: Bitch.
Funny thing is and I may be wrong here but I have a vague recollection Boris was against the cuts but was overruled by the party.
But the wider issue is one which Dominic Cumming refers to -- investing for resilience. Too often governments of all stripes see spare capacity as waste.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
329 votes, for now.
For now. Including Lady Hermon.
Yet the DUP Pact is open to legal challenge.
Even if DUP could not vote for Tories then neither could SF for Labour and Tories would still have more votes than Labour +SNP+LD+Plaid+Green combined
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
The 318 Tory MPs can't be unelected though, won't dissolve, and are very unlikely to die out or quit in significant numbers.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
Bedblocking Labour is short-term expediency which is likely to lead to a Labour majority government as the May attempts to cobble together deals on a vote-by-vote basis, to the tune of growing dissent from the backbenches, Scotland, Wales and everywhere else that perceives itself to be paying for largesse to N Ireland - before we even get into the difficulties of Brexit.
Better to go into opposition now, let Corbyn be seen to fail in government (as must inevitably be the case for a party in such a weak position, never mind one led by someone with no experience of, or temperament for, government). Then bring Labour down at a time of the Tories' choosing.
Very disappointing the first instinct of many is to play party politics with this tragedy.
This one of the few times I agreed with Plato - those who accuse others of "playing politics" after event like these are usually trying to shut down awkward truths.
No.
If anything, the cries of 'cuts' that are being made here and elsewhere put more lives in danger. It's a simplistic, pavlovian response to a complex tragedy.
If they get there way, and more money is plied into the emergency services (and how much?), then it may do f'all to prevent other such fires. Yes, they may react faster. And yes, they may save more lives. Perhaps. Or perhaps not, as the next tragedy might be rather different.
There needs to be an investigation that discovers what happened and why, and then blame can be apportioned and appropriate actions taken.
That last point is where governments of all stripes fail: they call for investigations, pretend to listen to the recommendations, and often, sadly, do nothing.
Our man up the ladder @TwistedFireStopper has said that in London resources aren't an issue (around the country perhaps they are).
So in fact you are making your case worse, not that you lefties ever listen to logic or facts, because if there have been cuts in London, then they haven't affected the capacity of the LFB to respond to tragedies such as this one (on the scene within six minutes), and hence those cuts were perfectly justified.
Bitch Dick.
Did you read the article before you came up with your right-wing drivel. Boris was warned by the FBU. Fire Stations were closed.
How many fire engines came in 6 minutes ? One or ten ?
Unions in arguing against cutbacks shock.
I'm sure you would have preferred 500 fire engines to turn up, right?
As far as I can see when it comes to listening to you or @TwistedFireStopper with regard to cuts to the fire service, I am going with him.
Edit: Bitch.
Funny thing is and I may be wrong here but I have a vague recollection Boris was against the cuts but was overruled by the party.
But the wider issue is one which Dominic Cumming refers to -- investing for resilience. Too often governments of all stripes see spare capacity as waste.
I don't disagree. I think it is indicative of the political mood that such an event is seen through the prism of "Tory Cuts".
Aware that it is hugely inappropriate to include this tragedy in the calculus of political advantage, but I suspect that had it happened before the election, the chances of a Lab OM would have increased significantly.
"Somehow we have reached a point where older people with assets expect younger, poorer people to pay for their care."
But this is the very point of the conservative party. It's at the core of contemporary conservative ideology.
F*ck the young and the poor as hard as possible.
Tories keep missing the point here. Older people did not reject paying something towards their care. That wasn't on the table. They objected to paying random catastrophic costs which they are unable to insure through markets or collectivise through government. Dilnot identified this problem explicitly and was ignored.
Timothy's analysis is astonishingly shallow and linear. How did he get the job?
"Somehow we have reached a point where older people with assets expect younger, poorer people to pay for their care."
But this is the very point of the conservative party. It's at the core of contemporary conservative ideology.
F*ck the young and the poor as hard as possible.
Tories keep missing the point here. Older people did not reject paying something towards their care. That wasn't on the table. They objected to paying random catastrophic costs which they are unable to insure through markets or collectivise through government. Dilnot identified this problem explicitly and was ignored.
Timothy's analysis is astonishingly shallow and linear. How did he get the job?
The public has shown no interest in an insurance solution. Why should one be imposed on them?
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
329 votes, for now.
For now. Including Lady Hermon.
Yet the DUP Pact is open to legal challenge.
Even if DUP could not vote for Tories then neither could SF for Labour and Tories would still have more votes than Labour +SNP+LD+Plaid+Green combined
not a proportional basis.Labour led Progressive Alliance has 52.5% Tories and DUP 43.4%
"Somehow we have reached a point where older people with assets expect younger, poorer people to pay for their care."
But this is the very point of the conservative party. It's at the core of contemporary conservative ideology.
F*ck the young and the poor as hard as possible.
Tories keep missing the point here. Older people did not reject paying something towards their care. That wasn't on the table. They objected to paying random catastrophic costs which they are unable to insure through markets or collectivise through government. Dilnot identified this problem explicitly and was ignored.
Timothy's analysis is astonishingly shallow and linear. How did he get the job?
He claims that months of background work and internal debate had gone into the Dementia Tax proposal.
I think they tried to slip in the removal of the cap, because it will cost significant money, and thought nobody would notice because we were so busy laughing at how crap Corbyn was.
The Tories should have grasped the nettle straight away. As Cameron did, May should have announced her resignation as Tory leader immediately. Instead we have the pitiful sight of a lame duck PM waddling from crisis to crisis as her critics circle for the inevitable kill.
That was my initial reaction, but is there time for a full leadership contest with the Article 50 clock ticking? Alternatively, a men-in-grey-suits stitch-up has its own downsides, the biggest of which is the lack of an obvious alternative PM who could rapidly get a grip on the party, the government and the Brexit negotiations.
And which idiot set the clock ticking and then decided she wanted to waste 7 weeks of the period fighting an unnecessary election?
If Labour had the courage to change leaders now and Corbyn had the grace to accept the plaudits and hand over the Tories would truly be in deep shit.
Have thought this too. But they have the same problem as the Tories...to whom? There is no obvious successor and there would be a damaging leadership campaign when finally some kind of fragile unity has been achieved. Corbyn is TINA atm.
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
The 318 Tory MPs can't be unelected though, won't dissolve, and are very unlikely to die out or quit in significant numbers.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
Bedblocking Labour is short-term expediency which is likely to lead to a Labour majority government as the May attempts to cobble together deals on a vote-by-vote basis, to the tune of growing dissent from the backbenches, Scotland, Wales and everywhere else that perceives itself to be paying for largesse to N Ireland - before we even get into the difficulties of Brexit.
Better to go into opposition now, let Corbyn be seen to fail in government (as must inevitably be the case for a party in such a weak position, never mind one led by someone with no experience of, or temperament for, government). Then bring Labour down at a time of the Tories' choosing.
"Better to go into opposition now" is first of all what got the Cons into trouble just now by thinking they could manage such a complex, dynamic system; it would be 1,000 times more unmanageable if they were actually in opposition.
And secondly, "better to go into opposition now" is the antithesis of what a political party is all about. No matter how bonkersly disfunctional the Conservative Party happens to be right now, which I appreciate is very.
1. It's undeniably true that February 1974 was more "well-hung" (fnar, etc) than 2017.
2. Whilst I agree the Tories are once-bitten, twice-shy on a voluntary snap election requiring 2/3rd majority under FTPA, the real route is motion of no confidence. On that, opposition parties who want to avoid an election need to justify voting that they DO have confidence or abstaining. Corbyn is an old man in a hurry, the Lib Dems are still at a low ebb so it's all upside. Caroline Lucas just isn't at risk, and Sylvia Hermon is essentially an anti-Tory social democrat. So it's the SNP and Plaid, who are caught between Scylla and Charybdis if they have lower poll ratings than they'd like. My view is they couldn't justify propping up the Tories via a vote or abstention - their core electorate would be furious, and it'd be worse than having an election in tricky circumstances.
3. I don't see why Tory discipline would hold better than the mid-1990s. Major had snatched victory from the jaws of defeat; May has done the opposite. Major had goodwill in the bank, May does not. Additionally, the Major Government could to a degree (Maastricht aside) avoid hard issues to the extent of being rightly accused of paralysis. Brexit is Maastricht squared, is unavoidable, and there are dangers to the Government on BOTH wings not just one. Essentially, they've given both the extreme Eurosceptics and Clarke-ite Remoaners a loaded pistol and have to prevent each from using it without provoking the other into doing so.
4. Suppose a relatively anonymous MP, who is retiring anyway, wants to go out in a blaze of glory? If some nobody goes to the Lib Dems (or resign the whip and sit as an independent) when the Tory majority is 100, who cares? If it brings down the Government, their footnote in history is assured.
5. Nobody wishes it on anyone, and it's unpleasant to think about, but in actuarial terms there is a non-negligible attrition rate even for moderately healthy, middle aged people. There's no elixir of life at CCHQ. In any group of 317 such people there are likely to be a small number who die inside five years - that there haven't been over the past seven doesn't affect that. By-elections can of course happen for other reasons, and it is now heavily in the interests of the press (even the sympathetic press) to make it so to create a story.
I agree an election in 2017 is highly unlikely, and laying at 3-1 is good value. But equally I'd be surprised if the next election was in 2022.
"Somehow we have reached a point where older people with assets expect younger, poorer people to pay for their care."
But this is the very point of the conservative party. It's at the core of contemporary conservative ideology.
F*ck the young and the poor as hard as possible.
Tories keep missing the point here. Older people did not reject paying something towards their care. That wasn't on the table. They objected to paying random catastrophic costs which they are unable to insure through markets or collectivise through government. Dilnot identified this problem explicitly and was ignored.
Timothy's analysis is astonishingly shallow and linear. How did he get the job?
The public has shown no interest in an insurance solution. Why should one be imposed on them?
How do you know? There's never been a social care insurance market to speak of iirc. Because there is no cap, so no one wants to be involved.
I think that's rubbish. They would lose more support if they help put Corbyn in than I can foresee in any other circumstance.
IRA support might not be that big a deal in GB. But among NI Unionist voters... er. It is.
If there is a sense of inevitability about a Labour win, as there was in 1995-7, the DUP would have to make a judgement about their prospects. Clinging to the Tories like grim death might be electoral death too. The DUP might indicate in terms - "We did our best. Look at the pork we got. But now the Tories are damaging Ulster."
We should keep in mind too that the DUP have been holding hands in the Assembly with SF and now have 10 MP. Who'd have thought the "Chuckle Brothers" would have seen that. Do Unionist voters hate Jezza more than Gerry Adams ?
If Labour had the courage to change leaders now and Corbyn had the grace to accept the plaudits and hand over the Tories would truly be in deep shit.
That is true, although Corbyn can go halfway to that by appointing a 'Team of Rivals' shadow cabinet that accommodates senior moderates.
He can but the rumour I've heard is that he think the winning team he's put together should continue. Can't see the old leadership people accepting shadow minister of paperclip roles.
One thing he could do would announce a big Blairite name as shadow housing minister after today with the mandate to rip pieces out of the Tories. Burnham would have been good at that if available.
I have no problem with Labour going political on this. It wasn't terrorism and wasn't totally unavoidable if early reports are true. If a minister failed to act on a safety report over costs that should not be swept under a carpet.
Comments
Austerity is well and truly over.
I agree generally with the article except that if May leaves before 2020 there will be an early election shortly after her successor takes office. They would be accused of being scared and having no confidence in their ability to win if they refused to call an early election, which would be fatal.
Are you suggesting that the Tories are back in the driving seat if they go 'full-Nazi' over immigration?
Much as I detest Corbyn, I believe he is the lesser evil than the baggage that would come with what I am (maybe incorrectly) assuming you are proposing.
Hhhmmm ....
The Tories should have grasped the nettle straight away. As Cameron did, May should have announced her resignation as Tory leader immediately. Instead we have the pitiful sight of a lame duck PM waddling from crisis to crisis as her critics circle for the inevitable kill.
Absolutely quackers ....
I think Labour would win if it was held today though. Tories last.
On the advice of the campaign consultants, and following opinion research that showed Theresa to be far more popular than the party or her colleagues, we eschewed our instincts. We were wrong to do so.
1. The DUP deal (assuming there is one) is open to legal challenge as it may well contravene the Good Friday Agreement. Do we expect Sinn Fein to merrily go along with it? Most likely they will be already getting their lawyers to sharpen their pencils, as indicated last night on Channel 4 news.
2. There could be defections, as others have mentioned (most likely to the Liberals). Less likely than likely, but very possible, particular if, as is likely, the Tories become deeply unpopular very soon.
3. The DUP may very soon be tainted by Tory shambling. As soon as they sniff that, they will dump the government.
I think point one is worthy of much greater discussion. It might be that it doesn't matter, and that the DUP keep propping up the government no matter what. Or it might not.
So in fact you are making your case worse, not that you lefties ever listen to logic or facts, because if there have been cuts in London, then they haven't affected the capacity of the LFB to respond to tragedies such as this one (on the scene within six minutes), and hence those cuts were perfectly justified.
BitchDick.Better to go into opposition now, let Corbyn be seen to fail in government (as must inevitably be the case for a party in such a weak position, never mind one led by someone with no experience of, or temperament for, government). Then bring Labour down at a time of the Tories' choosing.
https://twitter.com/ad_holland/status/874957502487638017
We've seen these all week – "my understanding is that the deal will be done today (Mon)" etc etc etc.
TBC.
If Farage stands Labour would almost certainly come through the middle and win the by-election. Another kipper would be less problematic for the Tories but given the awkward circumstances a Lab win must still be favourite.
BREXIT = complete disaster x economy struggling x >inflation x destabilisation in NI = ??
Tories have completely f***ed themselves and the country !
I said at the time that May should have announced Article 50 would be invoked on 31 Dec 2016 with the UK leaving on 31st Dec 2018, if necessary after a resolution of both houses of parliament soon after the vote. Absolute certainty was required. Instead the EU are faced with a weak and fatally wounded PM with no mandate and with a febrile HoC desirous of multiple solutions.
The worst negotiating position possible.
How many fire engines came in 6 minutes ? One or ten ?
Yet the DUP Pact is open to legal challenge.
And so it begins.
The problem for the country is that having an enthusisatically lefty spendy Labour government in power for a few years is going to push our debt to levels we will only ever be able to resolve through inflation. The pound willtank and interest rates will be back with a vengeance. And mass unemployment.
So the Tories will be back soon enough. UK plc maybe not so much.
"Somehow we have reached a point where older people with assets expect younger, poorer people to pay for their care."
But this is the very point of the conservative party. It's at the core of contemporary conservative ideology.
F*ck the young and the poor as hard as possible.
I'm sure you would have preferred 500 fire engines to turn up, right?
As far as I can see when it comes to listening to you or @TwistedFireStopper with regard to cuts to the fire service, I am going with him.
Edit: Bitch.
IRA support might not be that big a deal in GB. But among NI Unionist voters... er. It is.
Theresa May: weak and unstable.
I was surprised she'd voted in Kensington as she certainly isn't rich, and was slightly concerned she might be living in the tower block...
:-)
Which party tried to take away from the elderly at the general election and which party promised to protect those goodies?
The answer to that question is the Tories and Labour respectively.
However, we are where we are. The question now is how to minimise the damage from Theresa May's catastrophic general election disaster. There are certainly no good options.
But the wider issue is one which Dominic Cumming refers to -- investing for resilience. Too often governments of all stripes see spare capacity as waste.
If anything, the cries of 'cuts' that are being made here and elsewhere put more lives in danger. It's a simplistic, pavlovian response to a complex tragedy.
If they get there way, and more money is plied into the emergency services (and how much?), then it may do f'all to prevent other such fires. Yes, they may react faster. And yes, they may save more lives. Perhaps. Or perhaps not, as the next tragedy might be rather different.
There needs to be an investigation that discovers what happened and why, and then blame can be apportioned and appropriate actions taken.
That last point is where governments of all stripes fail: they call for investigations, pretend to listen to the recommendations, and often, sadly, do nothing.
That is true, although Corbyn can go halfway to that by appointing a 'Team of Rivals' shadow cabinet that accommodates senior moderates.
Aware that it is hugely inappropriate to include this tragedy in the calculus of political advantage, but I suspect that had it happened before the election, the chances of a Lab OM would have increased significantly.
We need an epic shift with the ball on an indifferent track.
Timothy's analysis is astonishingly shallow and linear. How did he get the job?
I think they tried to slip in the removal of the cap, because it will cost significant money, and thought nobody would notice because we were so busy laughing at how crap Corbyn was.
And secondly, "better to go into opposition now" is the antithesis of what a political party is all about. No matter how bonkersly disfunctional the Conservative Party happens to be right now, which I appreciate is very.
1. It's undeniably true that February 1974 was more "well-hung" (fnar, etc) than 2017.
2. Whilst I agree the Tories are once-bitten, twice-shy on a voluntary snap election requiring 2/3rd majority under FTPA, the real route is motion of no confidence. On that, opposition parties who want to avoid an election need to justify voting that they DO have confidence or abstaining. Corbyn is an old man in a hurry, the Lib Dems are still at a low ebb so it's all upside. Caroline Lucas just isn't at risk, and Sylvia Hermon is essentially an anti-Tory social democrat. So it's the SNP and Plaid, who are caught between Scylla and Charybdis if they have lower poll ratings than they'd like. My view is they couldn't justify propping up the Tories via a vote or abstention - their core electorate would be furious, and it'd be worse than having an election in tricky circumstances.
3. I don't see why Tory discipline would hold better than the mid-1990s. Major had snatched victory from the jaws of defeat; May has done the opposite. Major had goodwill in the bank, May does not. Additionally, the Major Government could to a degree (Maastricht aside) avoid hard issues to the extent of being rightly accused of paralysis. Brexit is Maastricht squared, is unavoidable, and there are dangers to the Government on BOTH wings not just one. Essentially, they've given both the extreme Eurosceptics and Clarke-ite Remoaners a loaded pistol and have to prevent each from using it without provoking the other into doing so.
4. Suppose a relatively anonymous MP, who is retiring anyway, wants to go out in a blaze of glory? If some nobody goes to the Lib Dems (or resign the whip and sit as an independent) when the Tory majority is 100, who cares? If it brings down the Government, their footnote in history is assured.
5. Nobody wishes it on anyone, and it's unpleasant to think about, but in actuarial terms there is a non-negligible attrition rate even for moderately healthy, middle aged people. There's no elixir of life at CCHQ. In any group of 317 such people there are likely to be a small number who die inside five years - that there haven't been over the past seven doesn't affect that. By-elections can of course happen for other reasons, and it is now heavily in the interests of the press (even the sympathetic press) to make it so to create a story.
I agree an election in 2017 is highly unlikely, and laying at 3-1 is good value. But equally I'd be surprised if the next election was in 2022.
We should keep in mind too that the DUP have been holding hands in the Assembly with SF and now have 10 MP. Who'd have thought the "Chuckle Brothers" would have seen that. Do Unionist voters hate Jezza more than Gerry Adams ?
One thing he could do would announce a big Blairite name as shadow housing minister after today with the mandate to rip pieces out of the Tories. Burnham would have been good at that if available.
I have no problem with Labour going political on this. It wasn't terrorism and wasn't totally unavoidable if early reports are true. If a minister failed to act on a safety report over costs that should not be swept under a carpet.