I don't know why we need a 'have a bath' day, or why it only comes around once a year, but nevertheless trust that all PB'ers will be suitably clean by the end of the day.
My bet is that May goes in the summer but the next election won't be until 2019 at the earliest.
12:24PM JosiasJessop said: » show previous quotes Earlier in this thread, LadyBucket said: I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.
You replied: Because it is true.
Or have I got the wrong end of t'stick? I am on my phone and was skimming the thread, I meant it's true that there are cuts to operational firefighting, but not specifically related to this case, although that may turn out differently once the inquiry is done! The perils of a fast moving thread and using a phone to post, I guess. I can see how you interpreted that comment, tho
Everything you write here is true Alastair. But, I just think Brexit is such an utterly unpredictable curveball it's very hard to make any predictions regarding UK politics for the next year, let alone 5.
I just can't see May going the distance, and if she gets replaced, there'll be a clamour against an "unelected" PM. For me, it looks like PM Jezza and payrise all around for us! Huzzah!
I can see several Tory, Remainers and Leavers, who could protest at the actions of the government on Brexit and quit the whip and sit as Independents.
That would not be the end of the world, I'm sure they would vote with the government on all non Brexit issues. Someone like Wollaston defecting to the Lib Dems would be a bigger problem.
The factor that Alastair didn't mention, is that some Tory MPs prioritise the Brexit above all else and could be willing to abstain or vote against their party on this point. So for example if the DUP push for a soft Brexit and get their way, would the awkward squad of Tory MPs meekly go along with it?
I can see several Tory, Remainers and Leavers, who could protest at the actions of the government on Brexit and quit the whip and sit as Independents.
That would not be the end of the world, I'm sure they would vote with the government on all non Brexit issues. Someone like Wollaston defecting to the Lib Dems would be a bigger problem.
Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston could both be defection risks.
I agree that party discipline is better, but am not sure it is good enough. Like all parties, the Conservatives are a coalition of many views and factions which holds together more or less successfully... until it doesn't. The maths is such that any slight unravelling could be enough to bring down the government unless it's politically possible for (e.g.) the SNP to save it in order to avoid an election. This could arise from any small faction digging its heels in on a pet issue in order to exploit that power - whether that's Frother Brexit, Remain Actually, No To Dup, Scotland Over All.., even a bloc vote of the Cornwall MPs could do it.
A zero failure rate on discipline for 5 years doesn't seem plausible.
Admittedly, you can apparently maintain a conspiracy of 2,521 people for 5 years, and here it only needs to be about 325 - but it's a tough ask.
I can see several Tory, Remainers and Leavers, who could protest at the actions of the government on Brexit and quit the whip and sit as Independents.
That would not be the end of the world, I'm sure they would vote with the government on all non Brexit issues. Someone like Wollaston defecting to the Lib Dems would be a bigger problem.
I'm more concerned about the Brexiteers who get the wood at the prospect of Hard Brexit.
Indeed unlike February 1974 the Tories have most seats as well as having won the popular vote and May is better doing the day to day business of government than she is a campaigner. In recent years the likes of Stephen Harper in Canada and Julia Gillard in Australia have kept minority governments in office for years in Westminster style systems, in Gillard's case with the support of the Greens and independents on confidence and supply much as May is relying on the DUP and there is no reason the Tories could not do the same
As for Yougov Survation at the weekend had voters opposing another election by 49% to 40% and once Brexit talks get underway the likelihood of another election recedes further while they are ongoing
I just can't see May going the distance, and if she gets replaced, there'll be a clamour against an "unelected" PM. For me, it looks like PM Jezza and payrise all around for us! Huzzah!
With inflation at 2.9% and rising many in the public sector will be requiring a wage rise. Do not see them getting one though.However surely interest rates will rise causing a never ending squeeze on incomes for many.
I can see several Tory, Remainers and Leavers, who could protest at the actions of the government on Brexit and quit the whip and sit as Independents.
That would not be the end of the world, I'm sure they would vote with the government on all non Brexit issues. Someone like Wollaston defecting to the Lib Dems would be a bigger problem.
I'm more concerned about the Brexiteers who get the wood at the prospect of Hard Brexit.
I think largely they will have to fall in line. A soft Brexit will be infinitely preferable to none at all. Hopefully Mr Baker and Mr Brady can help spell this point out.
"3) Conservative discipline is likely to hold far better than in the mid-1990s."
Well it'll need to be close to 100% on every single vote. It may not be such a big problem for the next two years when domestic policy is put on the back burner whilst the government deals with Brexit but I can't see a government which struggles to pass anything remotely divisive lasting five years.
I see a late 2019/early 2020 election with each party campaigning on their post Brexit vision.
Ill health and even a pregnancy at the wrong time could place real pressure on the govt at the time of a crucial vote, so a byelection esp with unhappy MPs (from either wing) is not to be underestimated. I imagine certain Tory MPs will be wined and dined by all factions on issues such as the customs union, SEM, professional lobbyists representing banks, euro focussed big business etc I reckon have already got a list of favourable MPs from all parties who will be ruthlessly targetted - and not just Ken Clarke who is now enjoying an Osborne type Springtime.
I think May will have less trouble from the hard brexiteers than expected as they know that if the government collapses, there is the prospect of the LDs and SNP being in coalition with Lab and watering Brexit down
The factor that Alastair didn't mention, is that some Tory MPs prioritise the Brexit above all else and could be willing to abstain or vote against their party on this point. So for example if the DUP push for a soft Brexit and get their way, would the awkward squad of Tory MPs meekly go along with it?
My reading of the Tory party at the moment is that they want a meaningful Brexit, rather than one labelled as either hard or soft.
A full clean break won't work. Neither will a Brexit in name only.
As one of the few direct losers from the sterling fall post Brexit I live in hope of a soft one and maybe at least the £ holding steady for a while. but I wouldn't bet on it!
i'll be shocked if it goes the 5 years, but then I never thought the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition would survive that long and it did (really liked that government btw).
Now seems far more unstable potentially than that situation. You had the Conservatives and Lib Dems united in trying to cope after the financial collapse, this time you have Brexit and the splits in the Conservative party and the country at large over what type of Brexit it has to be.
How well Brexit is going will dictate how long it lasts.
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
The SNP would not vote against a new election. Theyd be absolutely slaughtered in scotland if they voted to keep in a Tory govt.
A lot depends how long May stays in power. If she falls soonish, then the new leader will prob have to call an election. If she can last until 2022sh then maybe.
The SNP would not vote against a new election. Theyd be absolutely slaughtered in scotland if they voted to keep in a Tory govt.
A lot depends how long May stays in power. If she falls soonish, then the new leader will prob have to call an election. If she can last until 2022sh then maybe.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
The 318 Tory MPs can't be unelected though, won't dissolve, and are very unlikely to die out or quit in significant numbers.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
To run a minority government for a full 5 years takes a party absolutely united on policy and with complete faith in their leader. I cannot see it myself.
It is also much easier to keep a minority together coming from opposition, rather than from a majority position.
If it makes it through 2018, then I will be surprised.
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
I think May will have less trouble from the hard brexiteers than expected as they know that if the government collapses, there is the prospect of the LDs and SNP being in coalition with Lab and watering Brexit down
Just to add that there is a much larger number of highly marginal seats than last time so there will be, I expect, little appetite for an early election amongst backbenchers of any party.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
The 318 Tory MPs can't be unelected though, won't dissolve, and are very unlikely to die out or quit in significant numbers.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
Are you saying that the Tories would be more willing to let an election occur if Labour had a less "unelectable" leadership?
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up. The public ALWAYS want less immigration. Even the people you think might not want less, do
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK"."
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
I don't know why we need a 'have a bath' day, or why it only comes around once a year, but nevertheless trust that all PB'ers will be suitably clean by the end of the day.
My bet is that May goes in the summer but the next election won't be until 2019 at the earliest.
Presumably to remind Dave Lister.
(Great quote by Rimmer - "Why are you depressed? Ahhhh... it's November isn't it. Nearly time for your bath")
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
The 318 Tory MPs can't be unelected though, won't dissolve, and are very unlikely to die out or quit in significant numbers.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
Are you saying that the Tories would be more willing to let an election occur if Labour had a less "unelectable" leadership?
I'm saying Corbyn means they will stick together far more so than if it were a Blairite.
I'm also saying the DUP will be very unlikely to pull the plug if it leads to a Corbyn-led Labour Government, from which they might expect to reap the whirlwind, but might do so if a mainstream Labour leader were elected instead.
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
I should think Labour will fancy their chances of coming down the middle if they can shut up about Brexit.
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
All of this assumes that the Tories stay in government, which is, admittedly, the plan at the moment. I don't think that it can wholly be relied upon though.
There would have been more principle for the Conservatives to rule as a minority government.The DUP would not have voted them down.This tawdry deal demeans many conservative supporters .
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
I don't know why we need a 'have a bath' day, or why it only comes around once a year, but nevertheless trust that all PB'ers will be suitably clean by the end of the day.
My bet is that May goes in the summer but the next election won't be until 2019 at the earliest.
Presumably to remind Dave Lister.
(Great quote by Rimmer - "Why are you depressed? Ahhhh... it's November isn't it. Nearly time for your bath")
Wasn't it Queen Elizabeth Tudor who had a bath every year, whether she needed it or not?
I just can't see May going the distance, and if she gets replaced, there'll be a clamour against an "unelected" PM. For me, it looks like PM Jezza and payrise all around for us! Huzzah!
With inflation at 2.9% and rising many in the public sector will be requiring a wage rise. Do not see them getting one though.However surely interest rates will rise causing a never ending squeeze on incomes for many.
May is already talking about easing up on austerity, public sector pay rises in line with inflation but not above it is possible
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up
Thats what they thought last time...
Apperently half of UKIPpers were closet socialists that don't much mind mass migration. Who knew.
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up. The public ALWAYS want less immigration. Even the people you think might not want less, do
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK"."
I bang on about Enoch, but the Tories won the 1970 election because of his speech. Contemporary opinion polls showed massive majority for his view
"Another of Powell's biographers (there is no shortage of them!), Patrick Cosgrave, in his The Lives of Enoch Powell, gives us some figures and statistics for the sudden British popularity of Powell following this speech,
"...four different opinion polls, Gallup, ORC, NOP and Daily Express, all recorded overwhelming public support for him. Gallup recorded 74%, ORC 82%, NOP 67% and the Express 79%. The corresponding opinion figures against were 15%, 12%, 19% and 17%. On the question of whether Heath had been right to dismiss him, three of the same polls, in the same order, gave the figures for Heath as 20%, 18% and 25% and against him 69%, 73% and 61%. The Daily Express poll did not ask about the dismissal."
Steve Scalise, a high-ranking member of the House of Representatives, was shot at a baseball field in suburban Washington, D.C. as an active shooter opened fire, according to reports.
Scalise, the House Majority Whip, was at the field with other House Republicans when the gunman opened fire on the 400 block of East Monroe St., police in Alexandria, Va., said.
He and other Congress members were practicing for the Congressional Baseball Game, which is scheduled for Thursday night at Nationals Park.
Congressional aides were also shot, Fox News reported.
Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, was shot in the hip, according to reports.
The shooter is believed to be in custody, police said.
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up
Thats what they thought last time...
Apperently half of UKIPpers were closet socialists that don't much mind mass migration. Who knew.
It's funny, isn't it ...
Capitalism by definition can only work with the free movement of capital and labour. The party of capitalism now wants only free movement of capital, not of labour. Meanwhile, the party of socialism wants the free movement of labour.
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
By putting their own dangerous lunatic in there and hoping no one notices the difference ?
Hhhmmm .... Boris a shrinking violet ....
The computer it says "no" .
Indeed but as long as Corbyn leads Labour the DUP will back the Tories and if the choice is 'John Major without the charisma' or Corbyn and McDonnell socialism the middle class may stick with Hammond in the end, especially if he dumps the dementia tax and eases off a little on austerity
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
Nige wouldn't be able to resist it would he ? I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Agreed, Alastair. People are under estimating the Tories' will to survive. And their will to keep a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
Your post is gobbledygook.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
If the Tories do a long game Hammond could be John Major, do a compromise deal with the EU and if the Tories are lucky keep Corbyn out of No 10 at the next general election as Major kept Kinnock out in 1992
There's lies part of the problem. The Conservatives are no longer master of events but completely at the mercy of events and the DUP.
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! ..
I can see a route to the next General Election being in every year between now and 2022 (consulting tea leaves - far better than polls you see).
An Autumn election - easy - DUP deal collapses. Corbyn goes for no-confidence motion and gets it. 2018 election - As above, albeit the DUP deal lasts a few months into next year. A 2019 election - Brexit happens and the government, barely able to hold it together just let it go and hold an October 2019 election. A 2020 election - Brexit happens, new Conservative leader in September 2019 and they go to the country in May 2020 (ironic). A 2021 election - somehow the government get all the above done, before by-election defeats just do them in by 2021. A 2022 election - Government manage to go the whole distance and restrict by-election defeats.
I agree by-election defeats are unlikely, but we are potentially starring at one already. Craig MacKinley in South Thanet. Labour are in second place now again and could take the seat. We could see the Conservative seat total down to 316 before the autumn.
A deal with the DUP is likely to only be Confidence and Supply, and whilst that is enough for that sort of thing, can you see the endless comedy of MPs debating stuff but not voting on anything because it might be defeated. A yearly vote on the budget and nothing else?
I agree an early election is unlikely... but I doubt the next General Election will happen in May 2022. I suspect the government will be forced to go in either 2020 or 2021.
Of course, I'm probably talking a whole load of rubbish. What do we really know anyway?
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
Irony is Corbyn's IRA support didn't hinder him with the electorate anywhere near as much as the Tories had hoped and expected but it will mean he's unlikely to get a shot at No. 10 for five years at least
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up
Thats what they thought last time...
Not really, they barely mentioned it.
How can they mention it? They have nothing to show after 7 years and 3 elections promising to bring it down to the "tens of thousands", this strategy needs to go in the bin now.
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
Nige wouldn't be able to resist it would he ? I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
The Tories got 51% in Thanet South last Thursday, Labour 38% and UKIP 6% so there is no reason the Tories could not hold it even if there is a swing to Labour
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
Nige wouldn't be able to resist it would he ? I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
The timing of the next general election is almost entirely dependent of the electoral heath and well being of the DUP.
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
The DUP will back the Tories as long as the Sinn Fein loving Corbyn stays Labour leader
Lady Hermon has said exactly the same thing so that adds another MP to pro-government forces.
Yes it is block Corbyn at all costs
Irony is Corbyn's IRA support didn't hinder him with the electorate anywhere near as much as the Tories had hoped and expected but it will mean he's unlikely to get a shot at No. 10 for five years at least
Yes, it has cemented the Unionists in NI behind the Tories
Looking at this from the point of view of Conservative MPs, what would they regard as the best outcome? I'd have thought their thinking would be something like this:
1. Theresa May is an electoral disaster, there's no way we want to go into another election under her leadership.
2. However, there's no obvious replacement, so a swift defenestration isn't on the cards. In any case, we need her to remain so she can take all the blame.
3. Things are hugely complicated by the Article 50 ticking clock, so we have to grit our teeth and carry on until May 2019.
4. Once we pass that milestone, ditch Theresa and hold a proper leadership election. With a bit of luck, someone will emerge who can plausibly be presented to the electorate as a new direction, and all the opprobium can be left attached to the outgoing management. By then also with a bit more luck the Corbyn project will be falling apart under the weight of its own absurdities.
So, a leadership election in 2019, and an election a few months after that would seem a reasonable outline plan for Tory MPs.
Of course, this might all be overtaken by events, and it does depend on the DUP being content with such Danegeld as can be decently shoved in their direction. It's also optimistic in the sense that it requires everything to go right. and things might go very wrong indeed. But you can see that something along the above lines would be what they'd be hoping to engineer.
Possible black swan.. I see Rebecca L-B is now reverse ferreting on free movement.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
If the Tories went draconian on immigration they'd piss up
Thats what they thought last time...
Not really, they barely mentioned it.
How can they mention it? They have nothing to show after 7 years and 3 elections promising to bring it down to the "tens of thousands", this strategy needs to go in the bin now.
Well it did come down a chunk the last time the figures were released. That was during the campaign I think. They could have paraded them but barely mentioned them.
The public have always wanted less immigration, when they got a referendum they voted for it. Madness not to major on it, esp against hard left.
If it does happen (and I'm not presuming the guilt of Craig Mackinlay) I suspect the Thanet South might be the most important by election in history.
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
Nige wouldn't be able to resist it would he ? I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
The Tories got 51% in Thanet South last Thursday, Labour 38% and UKIP 6% so there is no reason the Tories could not hold it even if there is a swing to Labour
Comments
Well it is for us Labourites.
Apparently today is Have a Bath Day.
I don't know why we need a 'have a bath' day, or why it only comes around once a year, but nevertheless trust that all PB'ers will be suitably clean by the end of the day.
My bet is that May goes in the summer but the next election won't be until 2019 at the earliest.
12:24PM
JosiasJessop said:
» show previous quotes
Earlier in this thread, LadyBucket said:
I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.
You replied:
Because it is true.
Or have I got the wrong end of t'stick?
I am on my phone and was skimming the thread, I meant it's true that there are cuts to operational firefighting, but not specifically related to this case, although that may turn out differently once the inquiry is done! The perils of a fast moving thread and using a phone to post, I guess. I can see how you interpreted that comment, tho
I can see several Tory, Remainers and Leavers, who could protest at the actions of the government on Brexit and quit the whip and sit as Independents.
On balance (though you can never rule anything out with my party) I think the memories of what happened in 1997 should largely bind it together.
So for example if the DUP push for a soft Brexit and get their way, would the awkward squad of Tory MPs meekly go along with it?
Clarke, Soubry, Morgan etc. never would.
A zero failure rate on discipline for 5 years doesn't seem plausible.
Admittedly, you can apparently maintain a conspiracy of 2,521 people for 5 years, and here it only needs to be about 325 - but it's a tough ask.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jan/26/secret-success-equations-give-calculations-for-keeping-conspiracies-quiet
I'm on another 2017 GE at about 3.85.
As for Yougov Survation at the weekend had voters opposing another election by 49% to 40% and once Brexit talks get underway the likelihood of another election recedes further while they are ongoing
I'd say, very little other than Finance and Brexit bills. The former will be negotiated heavily pre-vote, the latter during the votes.
Possibly a Heathrow bill and a heavily watered down Education bill as well.
Well it'll need to be close to 100% on every single vote. It may not be such a big problem for the next two years when domestic policy is put on the back burner whilst the government deals with Brexit but I can't see a government which struggles to pass anything remotely divisive lasting five years.
I see a late 2019/early 2020 election with each party campaigning on their post Brexit vision.
I imagine certain Tory MPs will be wined and dined by all factions on issues such as the customs union, SEM, professional lobbyists representing banks, euro focussed big business etc I reckon have already got a list of favourable MPs from all parties who will be ruthlessly targetted - and not just Ken Clarke who is now enjoying an Osborne type Springtime.
I think May will have less trouble from the hard brexiteers than expected as they know that if the government collapses, there is the prospect of the LDs and SNP being in coalition with Lab and watering Brexit down
A full clean break won't work. Neither will a Brexit in name only.
May will be gone, then Boris takes over, and everything changes.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ed-balls-predicts-another-election-next-year-to-break-brexit-deadlock-a7787536.html
Now seems far more unstable potentially than that situation. You had the Conservatives and Lib Dems united in trying to cope after the financial collapse, this time you have Brexit and the splits in the Conservative party and the country at large over what type of Brexit it has to be.
How well Brexit is going will dictate how long it lasts.
A lot depends how long May stays in power. If she falls soonish, then the new leader will prob have to call an election. If she can last until 2022sh then maybe.
Boris the liar vs Corbyn the sincere? wont go well.
This is their Zama.
Please don't tell me he's going to pull that stunt again?
eh?
As soon as the DUP feel that they are tainted by their pact with the Conservatives they will dump on the Tories quicker than party games at a Mark Oaten appreciation meeting. At which point the sh*t will truly hit the fan.
So, they stay - to bedblock out Labour, if nothing else - unless the DUP pull the plug *and* no confidence them, together with everyone else.
I think this Parliament lasts for as long as Corbyn or McDonnell lead the opposition.
It is also much easier to keep a minority together coming from opposition, rather than from a majority position.
If it makes it through 2018, then I will be surprised.
Possibly meme for the Tories to play that they stayed true to the referendum result, and it was Labour who reneged on their word and prevented it.
That could help them with ex-UKIP voters who voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, because they'd promised to end free movement in the manifesto.
You're right, there's a real risk of it.
How do you reconcile keeping "a dangerous lunatic away from 10 Downing Street" and then assert "Boris takes over .." ?
Bizarre.
"According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK"."
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
I bang on about Enoch, but the Tories won the 1970 election because of his speech. Contemporary opinion polls showed massive majority for his view
Farage might stand on a hard Brexit platform, and break the habit of a lifetime and win that's going to shake up the Tory party (I suspect he's more likely to do what he did in 2010, and finish third in a two horse race)
If everything follows the usual pattern said by election might take place late this year/earlier next year.
(Great quote by Rimmer - "Why are you depressed? Ahhhh... it's November isn't it. Nearly time for your bath")
I'm also saying the DUP will be very unlikely to pull the plug if it leads to a Corbyn-led Labour Government, from which they might expect to reap the whirlwind, but might do so if a mainstream Labour leader were elected instead.
Or is this actually the result needed for the defence of the realm?
Infact many were ex-libdems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDMzaa3msrY
"...four different opinion polls, Gallup, ORC, NOP and Daily Express, all recorded overwhelming public support for him. Gallup recorded 74%, ORC 82%, NOP 67% and the Express 79%. The corresponding opinion figures against were 15%, 12%, 19% and 17%. On the question of whether Heath had been right to dismiss him, three of the same polls, in the same order, gave the figures for Heath as 20%, 18% and 25% and against him 69%, 73% and 61%. The Daily Express poll did not ask about the dismissal."
http://www.ukapologetics.net/11/powell.htm
Scalise, the House Majority Whip, was at the field with other House Republicans when the gunman opened fire on the 400 block of East Monroe St., police in Alexandria, Va., said.
He and other Congress members were practicing for the Congressional Baseball Game, which is scheduled for Thursday night at Nationals Park.
Congressional aides were also shot, Fox News reported.
Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, was shot in the hip, according to reports.
The shooter is believed to be in custody, police said.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/house-majority-whip-steve-scalise-shot-va-baseball-field-article-1.3246505
As for Hammond, he seems like John Major but without the charisma !! .. Hhhmmm .... Boris a shrinking violet ....
The computer it says "no" .
Capitalism by definition can only work with the free movement of capital and labour. The party of capitalism now wants only free movement of capital, not of labour. Meanwhile, the party of socialism wants the free movement of labour.
I don't think the Tories would win it to be perfectly honest. Corbyn vs Farage.
I can see a route to the next General Election being in every year between now and 2022 (consulting tea leaves - far better than polls you see).
An Autumn election - easy - DUP deal collapses. Corbyn goes for no-confidence motion and gets it.
2018 election - As above, albeit the DUP deal lasts a few months into next year.
A 2019 election - Brexit happens and the government, barely able to hold it together just let it go and hold an October 2019 election.
A 2020 election - Brexit happens, new Conservative leader in September 2019 and they go to the country in May 2020 (ironic).
A 2021 election - somehow the government get all the above done, before by-election defeats just do them in by 2021.
A 2022 election - Government manage to go the whole distance and restrict by-election defeats.
I agree by-election defeats are unlikely, but we are potentially starring at one already. Craig MacKinley in South Thanet. Labour are in second place now again and could take the seat. We could see the Conservative seat total down to 316 before the autumn.
A deal with the DUP is likely to only be Confidence and Supply, and whilst that is enough for that sort of thing, can you see the endless comedy of MPs debating stuff but not voting on anything because it might be defeated. A yearly vote on the budget and nothing else?
I agree an early election is unlikely... but I doubt the next General Election will happen in May 2022. I suspect the government will be forced to go in either 2020 or 2021.
Of course, I'm probably talking a whole load of rubbish. What do we really know anyway?
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_59410ecbe4b09ad4fbe45929/amp
https://t.co/G20RHOE5vH
Alien v Predator. Whoever wins, we lose.
1. Theresa May is an electoral disaster, there's no way we want to go into another election under her leadership.
2. However, there's no obvious replacement, so a swift defenestration isn't on the cards. In any case, we need her to remain so she can take all the blame.
3. Things are hugely complicated by the Article 50 ticking clock, so we have to grit our teeth and carry on until May 2019.
4. Once we pass that milestone, ditch Theresa and hold a proper leadership election. With a bit of luck, someone will emerge who can plausibly be presented to the electorate as a new direction, and all the opprobium can be left attached to the outgoing management. By then also with a bit more luck the Corbyn project will be falling apart under the weight of its own absurdities.
So, a leadership election in 2019, and an election a few months after that would seem a reasonable outline plan for Tory MPs.
Of course, this might all be overtaken by events, and it does depend on the DUP being content with such Danegeld as can be decently shoved in their direction. It's also optimistic in the sense that it requires everything to go right. and things might go very wrong indeed. But you can see that something along the above lines would be what they'd be hoping to engineer.
Well it did come down a chunk the last time the figures were released. That was during the campaign I think. They could have paraded them but barely mentioned them.
The public have always wanted less immigration, when they got a referendum they voted for it. Madness not to major on it, esp against hard left.
https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/874944410714243072