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A typical Liberal Democrat in fact - neither liberal nor democratic.Tykejohnno said:0 -
The remain forces are gathering.0
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@JGForsyth: Why sacking people when you are in Theresa May's situation, is not a good idea... https://twitter.com/tonygallagher/status/8747335243975598100
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Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
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Especially when you were the guy who saw the Corbyn surge before the rest of the party...Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Why sacking people when you are in Theresa May's situation, is not a good idea... https://twitter.com/tonygallagher/status/874733524397559810
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No idea why she is saying this (if, of course, she is). It is no longer in her hands.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
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How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
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Softest of Soft BREXITs looks likely.
TMICIPM to blame.0 -
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The soft Brexiteers of today will be the Remainers of tomorrow. The path of least resistance is Remain, not soft Brexit.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
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I agree.another_richard said:' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.0 -
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.MaxPB said:
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
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Chuckle.Mortimer said:
Ad hom much?midwinter said:
I give up. When you're defending IDS and May you're going to be on the wrong side of any argument.Mortimer said:
On one side we have an ex-chancellor who has flounced off, on the other side we have a man who devoted a decade of his life to reducing poverty in a fair way, and who is still fighting the good fight.midwinter said:
That's risible. Choreographed resignation designed to cause maximum discomfort to remain don't quite square with the oh so honest well intentioned politician you're describing.Mortimer said:
I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.midwinter said:
Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.tlg86 said:
And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.Mortimer said:
Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.FrankBooth said:Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.
Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.
Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....
As you know.
I know who I'd trust more.
Is all.0 -
So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?0
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Tories = France
Labour = England
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"Bagehot
The culture wars arrive in Britain
The election reveals astonishing changes in the political landscape"
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21723197-election-reveals-astonishing-changes-political-landscape-culture-wars-arrive0 -
If you pay your bills by selling assets, eventually you will run out of assets. It's a sticking plaster, not a long term solution. All the extra dividends, rent and royalties that will flow out of the country make the situation worse in the long term.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree.another_richard said:' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
We need to save more, consume less, export more and invest more. The problem is selling it to the public...
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@DanielJHannan: You know who's really bloody good? That @bbclaurak.Bobajob_PB said:Has Laura K landed a job as May's personal PR in this reshuffle?
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Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.0
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Was it Osborne or Clarke who described him as "thick as pig shit". No matter, yet the Tories elected him as their leader.Mortimer said:
I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.midwinter said:
Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.tlg86 said:
And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.Mortimer said:
Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.FrankBooth said:Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.
Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.
Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....0 -
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.HYUFD said:
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likelyScott_P said:
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.0 -
I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.Tykejohnno said:
Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.
I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.0 -
Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.Essexit said:Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.0 -
Its been twenty years of self-indulgence.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree.another_richard said:' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
We flogged off overseas assets, then we flogged off Mayfair mansions and football teams. We borrowed money at household level, then we borrowed money at government level.
Its not surprising that we're now considering how to get our hands on housing equity - its the last great untapped source of cash to keep the spending spree going.
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No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.MaxPB said:
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
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That doesn't bode well. The last time I heard talk of a name change was after the 1997 drubbing.Scott_P said:0 -
Err, I've been posting for ages that Osborne's finished in politics, he will never be an MP again.Richard_Tyndall said:
Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.Essexit said:Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
He's moved on. He's enjoying life at the moment.0 -
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
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Do you forsee the forthcoming Tory leadership contest as Soft vs Hard Brexiteer?Pong said:
I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.Tykejohnno said:
Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.
I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.0 -
Osborne could be dead and buried, TSE would still predict his ascent from the grave.Richard_Tyndall said:
Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.Essexit said:Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.0 -
No more than I would expect from that pair of tossers. Both Heathite in their ability to bear grudges.Chris_A said:
Was it Osborne or Clarke who described him as "thick as pig shit". No matter, yet the Tories elected him as their leader.Mortimer said:
I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.midwinter said:
Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.tlg86 said:
And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.Mortimer said:
Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.FrankBooth said:Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.
Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.
Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....0 -
It's not up to the UK though.chloe said:
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.MaxPB said:
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.0 -
It has definitely been discussed more recently than that.Stark_Dawning said:
That doesn't bode well. The last time I heard talk of a name change was after the 1997 drubbing.Scott_P said:
e.g. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11911078/The-Conservative-Party-needs-a-new-name.html0 -
No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not up to the UK though.chloe said:
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.MaxPB said:
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.0 -
JC??Freggles said:So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?
"Who would Jesus vote for?"0 -
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Thing is I reckon he's right. Notice that one thing he doesn't say should be done.Scott_P said:
That is burble endlessly and pointlessly about your own particular version of Brexit, while people get worse off.0 -
Selling assets to fund current expenditure was what Macmillan attacked Mrs Thatcher's privatisations for: selling the family silver. Governments have been at it ever since. Industrialists too.RoyalBlue said:
If you pay your bills by selling assets, eventually you will run out of assets. It's a sticking plaster, not a long term solution. All the extra dividends, rent and royalties that will flow out of the country make the situation worse in the long term.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree.another_richard said:' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
We need to save more, consume less, export more and invest more. The problem is selling it to the public...0 -
He's over it, he's enjoying death underground!Essexit said:
Osborne could be dead and buried, TSE would still predict his ascent from the grave.Richard_Tyndall said:
Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.Essexit said:Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.0 -
Certainly everything will have to go back and forth through Parliament and Downing StreetBobajob_PB said:
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.HYUFD said:
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likelyScott_P said:
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.0 -
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.0 -
We shouldn't have got into this position in the first place.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not up to the UK though.chloe said:
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.MaxPB said:
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.0 -
Sorry Richard, I'll take the advice of Clifford Chance, Slaughter and May, and KPMG over your opinions.Richard_Tyndall said:
No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not up to the UK though.chloe said:
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.MaxPB said:
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.0 -
I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*Bobajob_PB said:
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.HYUFD said:
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likelyScott_P said:
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
*Voice of the silent majority.0 -
No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.Chris_A said:
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.0 -
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Janan in the FT:
All governments lose support over time but this one is almost designed for that purpose. A discredited prime minister (or an unelected new one) kept going by an ultra-conservative minority party, unable to do much other than Brexit: Labour could not design a more provocative spectacle, one more likely to irk the young, the liberal, the urban. The Tories would regain the reputation that Mr Cameron spent a decade cleaning up. Each day of this government makes its reckoning at the hands of voters more severe.
The Tories must at least attempt a more lasting fix. A nation with a deficit to clear and a momentous Europe policy to shape needs one. And it is a strange day when Tories look to the 1970s as a time to recapture.
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DUP don't even need to abstain. Thanks to SF's anti-Britishness, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster a maximum of 315 seats.Mortimer said:
Hilarious Hubris if he called one.Freggles said:So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?
DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.
THEY.
WILL.
NOT.
MAKE.
CORBYN.
PM.0 -
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So Hammond doesn't want free trade with the rest of the world. What a f*ckwit.Scott_P said:0 -
The EU27 have made an explicity decided to work as one in the negotiations. They are far, far more united than we are.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry Richard, I'll take the advice of Clifford Chance, Slaughter and May, and KPMG over your opinions.Richard_Tyndall said:
No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not up to the UK though.chloe said:
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.MaxPB said:
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.0 -
No comment confidence motion needs a clear majority to pass. Please explain how Labour plus anyone without DUP get 319...Chris_A said:0 -
Eh? If the DUP abstained the Tories would win. They have a majority of 4 in GB.Chris_A said:0 -
Both Labour and the Tories are committed to Brexit without a second referendum, what level of access we get to the single market depends on the concessions given on free movement and payments to the EU and the DUP and Europhile Tories will ensure more concessions will be given than would have been the case with a clear Tory majorityfoxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
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Read Rob Halfon's vision for the Tory party (in the Sun).Pong said:
I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.Tykejohnno said:
Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.
I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.
It reads like a Labour manifesto.0 -
AIUI, the independent NI is a unionist, so not likely to sit with Corbyn.Sunil_Prasannan said:
DUP don't even need to abstain. Thanks to SF's anti-Britishness, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster a maximum of 315 seats.Mortimer said:
Hilarious Hubris if he called one.Freggles said:So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?
DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.
THEY.
WILL.
NOT.
MAKE.
CORBYN.
PM.0 -
I would think this proves sacking Halfon to be a good idea. Clearly too close to Osborne and clearly someone who cannot be trusted.
Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.0 -
Well quite. People seem to forget that mega-Hard Brexit is the default outcome. With the government paralysed and the hard Right likely to veto any concessions to the continent, how can a pragmatic Brexit even get off the ground?foxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.0 -
For me our national debt is the overriding issue. We cannot reduce taxes or increase spending with that hanging over us. God forbid we are in a war of national survival and have to borrow to pay for our defence as we have had to do in the past.
We have to reduce the debt as an imperative. We can therefore grow our way out (a business friendly economy outside the EU constraints, increasing our national wealth) or inflate our way out (just of our local debt, but at a heck of a cost for the elderly and the unemployed).
I think it was Niall Ferguson who made an observation on societies that rose and fell: history shows that societies with more merchants and soldiers rise while those with more priests and kings fall - I've been looking for the source for years and can't find it. Basically, societies that consume wealth faster than they create it are doomed. In the EU we were on that path. Out we may have a chance.0 -
Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.Chris_A said:
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.0 -
Why would you? They are only our neighbours, allies and partners after all.KentRising said:
I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*Bobajob_PB said:
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.HYUFD said:
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likelyScott_P said:
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
*Voice of the silent majority.0 -
Does EU law prevent renationalisation of pulblic services ?0
-
Easy, innit:Mortimer said:
No comment confidence motion needs a clear majority to pass. Please explain how Labour plus anyone without DUP get 319...Chris_A said:
Labour 262
SNP 35
Lib Dems 12
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
That's 314. Add in Diane Abbott's mum, dad, gardener, second cousin, and maths teacher, and they're golden...0 -
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.foxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.0 -
I meant no party would risk withdrawing A50 withhout a second referendum.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories are committed to Brexit without a second referendum, what level of access we get to the single market depends on the concessions given on free movement and payments to the EU and the DUP and Europhile Tories will ensure more concessions will be given than would have been the case with a clear Tory majorityfoxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.0 -
Chris_A said:
Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.Chris_A said:
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
And swear loyalty? Never.Bobajob_PB said:
Why would you? They are only our neighbours, allies and partners after all.KentRising said:
I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*Bobajob_PB said:
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.HYUFD said:
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likelyScott_P said:
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
*Voice of the silent majority.0 -
To do so would be the gravest of sins, national apostasy.Chris_A said:
Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.Chris_A said:
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.0 -
Brom said:
I would think this proves sacking Halfon to be a good idea. Clearly too close to Osborne and clearly someone who cannot be trusted.
Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.</
Halfon positioning himself as potential stalking horse?0 -
Diane Abbott, out of control of her diabetes.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/13/diane-abbott-reveals-illness-and-hits-out-at-vicious-tory-campaign0 -
Makes you wonder why UKIP have no qualms about taking their seats in Brussels.Sean_F said:
To do so would be the gravest of sins, national apostasy.Chris_A said:
Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.Chris_A said:
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.0 -
Halfon is awful. He had to go.Brom said:I would think this proves sacking Halfon to be a good idea. Clearly too close to Osborne and clearly someone who cannot be trusted.
Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.0 -
Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?IanB2 said:
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.foxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.0 -
But she is pro-Labour none-the-less. Lady Hermon quit the UUP over their brief alliance with the Tories at GE2010.MaxPB said:
AIUI, the independent NI is a unionist, so not likely to sit with Corbyn.Sunil_Prasannan said:
DUP don't even need to abstain. Thanks to SF's anti-Britishness, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster a maximum of 315 seats.Mortimer said:
Hilarious Hubris if he called one.Freggles said:So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?
DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.
THEY.
WILL.
NOT.
MAKE.
CORBYN.
PM.0 -
They would have to take the loyal oath quickly!Chris_A said:
Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.Chris_A said:
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
Though a byelection could do it...
0 -
To be honest I'd be happy if the Government fell because of Sinn Fein turning up and voting.
Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.0 -
Sadly the Tory Party does not own the media anymore.Brom said:I would think this proves sacking Halfon to be a good idea. Clearly too close to Osborne and clearly someone who cannot be trusted.
Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.0 -
Yup. I think I'm with you there...TheScreamingEagles said:To be honest I'd be happy if the Government fell because of Sinn Fein turning up and voting.
Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.
Marty would turn in his grave...0 -
-
As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.JonathanD said:
Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?IanB2 said:
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.foxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.0 -
UKIP aren't Sinn Fein. They're only there to cause trouble.williamglenn said:
Makes you wonder why UKIP have no qualms about taking their seats in Brussels.Sean_F said:
To do so would be the gravest of sins, national apostasy.Chris_A said:
Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.Chris_A said:
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
0 -
About as likely as Corbyn voting for Trident.TheScreamingEagles said:To be honest I'd be happy if the Government fell because of Sinn Fein turning up and voting.
Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.0 -
There must be other languages they could do it in. Like Welsh,TheScreamingEagles said:To be honest I'd be happy if the Government fell because of Sinn Fein turning up and voting.
Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.0 -
She has her faults, but Sylvia Hermon is rock-solid on Corbyn:Sunil_Prasannan said:
But she is pro-Labour none-the-less. Lady Hermon quit the UUP over their brief alliance with the Tories at GE2010.MaxPB said:
AIUI, the independent NI is a unionist, so not likely to sit with Corbyn.Sunil_Prasannan said:
DUP don't even need to abstain. Thanks to SF's anti-Britishness, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster a maximum of 315 seats.Mortimer said:
Hilarious Hubris if he called one.Freggles said:So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?
DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.
THEY.
WILL.
NOT.
MAKE.
CORBYN.
PM.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/i-could-never-back-labour-if-corbyn-was-its-leader-says-hermon-35783622.html0 -
Lucky for PB that we have you to correct usRichard_Tyndall said:
No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not up to the UK though.chloe said:
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.MaxPB said:
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
0 -
As I understood it the whole point of the court case and the subsequent votes in Parliament was that the deal no longer needs the approval of Parliament. They had the vote. I am not saying I agree with this but I don't see where Parliament can actually amend anything prior to us being out.IanB2 said:
As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.JonathanD said:
Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?IanB2 said:
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.foxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.0 -
I see the Guardian and Observer are going tabloid, explicitly to save money - increasingly the print arm is being kept afloat by the very successful online arm. I wonder how many national print papers will exist in 20 years.
On topic, I'm wary of the tendency of the media to exagerrate (because it makes for more startling stories). The delays to forming a government and starting Brexit talks are not good signs, but they'll be barely noticed by most voters. As with a restaurant where service is slow, people will judge in the end by the quality of the food when it finally turns up. May is clearly not doing well, but she's not the total disaster that some think. In the same way, sooner or later Corbyn will do something controversial (or not do it, e.g. not reshuffling his Shadow Cabinet significantly) and we'll be told that he's squandered all the goodwill; again, the public will barely notice.
The Government has two major risks: a botched negotiation and a significant economic downturn, Everything else is froth.0 -
Maybe once in a generation or two they have to discover reality the hard way.Drutt said:In such circumstances you could, when someone says "Don't vote that way, it'll ruin the economy", forgive them for not listening.
0 -
Oh I also meant to add a story. This is a hypothetical story in the Sir Humphrey sense.
Consider someone I know well who may have been a senior civil servant of the last generation to negotiate international deals outwith the EU. After the Brexit vote, he and others who are not yet Gaga wrote to the Cabinet Office offering their services to help train their modern colleagues in some of the *ahem* darker arts. After a period of time, their offer was refused on the basis that the services of the major consultancies were to be used to train the current senior civil servants in the art of negotiation. That fits very well with Domenic Cumming's latest thoughts on the general (poor) state of our Civil Service machine.
The politicians are getting all the Brexit negotiation attention, but watch out or the civil service. Their ability to fail to deliver is the real worry now.0 -
The hard right cannot veto anything, the Tories do not even have a majority and at least 10 of those Tory MPs are EurophilesStark_Dawning said:
Well quite. People seem to forget that mega-Hard Brexit is the default outcome. With the government paralysed and the hard Right likely to veto any concessions to the continent, how can a pragmatic Brexit even get off the ground?foxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.0 -
Yep but everyone keeps saying that won't happen.Chris_A said:
Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.Chris_A said:
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.0 -
A minority government always has an additional risk of being defeated by a minor backbench rebellion on something it didn't see coming.NickPalmer said:I see the Guardian and Observer are going tabloid, explicitly to save money - increasingly the print arm is being kept afloat by the very successful online arm. I wonder how many national print papers will exist in 20 years.
On topic, I'm wary of the tendency of the media to exagerrate (because it makes for more startling stories). The delays to forming a government and starting Brexit talks are not good signs, but they'll be barely noticed by most voters. As with a restaurant where service is slow, people will judge in the end by the quality of the food when it finally turns up. May is clearly not doing well, but she's not the total disaster that some think. In the same way, sooner or later Corbyn will do something controversial (or not do it, e.g. not reshuffling his Shadow Cabinet significantly) and we'll be told that he's squandered all the goodwill; again, the public will barely notice.
The Government has two major risks: a botched negotiation and a significant economic downturn, Everything else is froth.0 -
The deal will go to parliament, for sure.Richard_Tyndall said:
As I understood it the whole point of the court case and the subsequent votes in Parliament was that the deal no longer needs the approval of Parliament. They had the vote. I am not saying I agree with this but I don't see where Parliament can actually amend anything prior to us being out.IanB2 said:
As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.JonathanD said:
Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?IanB2 said:
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.foxinsoxuk said:
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.HYUFD said:
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.MaxPB said:Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.0
This discussion has been closed.