Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
I agree.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.
Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.
Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.
Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....
And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.
Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.
I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.
That's risible. Choreographed resignation designed to cause maximum discomfort to remain don't quite square with the oh so honest well intentioned politician you're describing. As you know.
On one side we have an ex-chancellor who has flounced off, on the other side we have a man who devoted a decade of his life to reducing poverty in a fair way, and who is still fighting the good fight.
I know who I'd trust more.
I give up. When you're defending IDS and May you're going to be on the wrong side of any argument. Is all.
' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
I agree.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
If you pay your bills by selling assets, eventually you will run out of assets. It's a sticking plaster, not a long term solution. All the extra dividends, rent and royalties that will flow out of the country make the situation worse in the long term.
We need to save more, consume less, export more and invest more. The problem is selling it to the public...
Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.
Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.
Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.
Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....
And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.
Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.
I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.
Was it Osborne or Clarke who described him as "thick as pig shit". No matter, yet the Tories elected him as their leader.
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.
Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.
I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.
Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
I agree.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
Its been twenty years of self-indulgence.
We flogged off overseas assets, then we flogged off Mayfair mansions and football teams. We borrowed money at household level, then we borrowed money at government level.
Its not surprising that we're now considering how to get our hands on housing equity - its the last great untapped source of cash to keep the spending spree going.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
Err, I've been posting for ages that Osborne's finished in politics, he will never be an MP again.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.
Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.
I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.
Do you forsee the forthcoming Tory leadership contest as Soft vs Hard Brexiteer?
Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
Osborne could be dead and buried, TSE would still predict his ascent from the grave.
Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.
Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.
Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.
Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....
And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.
Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.
I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.
Was it Osborne or Clarke who described him as "thick as pig shit". No matter, yet the Tories elected him as their leader.
No more than I would expect from that pair of tossers. Both Heathite in their ability to bear grudges.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
It's not up to the UK though.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
It's not up to the UK though.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.
Thing is I reckon he's right. Notice that one thing he doesn't say should be done. That is burble endlessly and pointlessly about your own particular version of Brexit, while people get worse off.
' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
I agree.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
If you pay your bills by selling assets, eventually you will run out of assets. It's a sticking plaster, not a long term solution. All the extra dividends, rent and royalties that will flow out of the country make the situation worse in the long term.
We need to save more, consume less, export more and invest more. The problem is selling it to the public...
Selling assets to fund current expenditure was what Macmillan attacked Mrs Thatcher's privatisations for: selling the family silver. Governments have been at it ever since. Industrialists too.
Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
Osborne could be dead and buried, TSE would still predict his ascent from the grave.
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
Certainly everything will have to go back and forth through Parliament and Downing Street
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
It's not up to the UK though.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
We shouldn't have got into this position in the first place.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
It's not up to the UK though.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.
Sorry Richard, I'll take the advice of Clifford Chance, Slaughter and May, and KPMG over your opinions.
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*
All governments lose support over time but this one is almost designed for that purpose. A discredited prime minister (or an unelected new one) kept going by an ultra-conservative minority party, unable to do much other than Brexit: Labour could not design a more provocative spectacle, one more likely to irk the young, the liberal, the urban. The Tories would regain the reputation that Mr Cameron spent a decade cleaning up. Each day of this government makes its reckoning at the hands of voters more severe.
The Tories must at least attempt a more lasting fix. A nation with a deficit to clear and a momentous Europe policy to shape needs one. And it is a strange day when Tories look to the 1970s as a time to recapture.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
It's not up to the UK though.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.
Sorry Richard, I'll take the advice of Clifford Chance, Slaughter and May, and KPMG over your opinions.
The EU27 have made an explicity decided to work as one in the negotiations. They are far, far more united than we are.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Both Labour and the Tories are committed to Brexit without a second referendum, what level of access we get to the single market depends on the concessions given on free movement and payments to the EU and the DUP and Europhile Tories will ensure more concessions will be given than would have been the case with a clear Tory majority
I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.
Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.
I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.
Read Rob Halfon's vision for the Tory party (in the Sun).
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Well quite. People seem to forget that mega-Hard Brexit is the default outcome. With the government paralysed and the hard Right likely to veto any concessions to the continent, how can a pragmatic Brexit even get off the ground?
For me our national debt is the overriding issue. We cannot reduce taxes or increase spending with that hanging over us. God forbid we are in a war of national survival and have to borrow to pay for our defence as we have had to do in the past.
We have to reduce the debt as an imperative. We can therefore grow our way out (a business friendly economy outside the EU constraints, increasing our national wealth) or inflate our way out (just of our local debt, but at a heck of a cost for the elderly and the unemployed).
I think it was Niall Ferguson who made an observation on societies that rose and fell: history shows that societies with more merchants and soldiers rise while those with more priests and kings fall - I've been looking for the source for years and can't find it. Basically, societies that consume wealth faster than they create it are doomed. In the EU we were on that path. Out we may have a chance.
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*
*Voice of the silent majority.
Why would you? They are only our neighbours, allies and partners after all.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Both Labour and the Tories are committed to Brexit without a second referendum, what level of access we get to the single market depends on the concessions given on free movement and payments to the EU and the DUP and Europhile Tories will ensure more concessions will be given than would have been the case with a clear Tory majority
I meant no party would risk withdrawing A50 withhout a second referendum.
Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*
*Voice of the silent majority.
Why would you? They are only our neighbours, allies and partners after all.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
It's not up to the UK though.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.
As I understood it the whole point of the court case and the subsequent votes in Parliament was that the deal no longer needs the approval of Parliament. They had the vote. I am not saying I agree with this but I don't see where Parliament can actually amend anything prior to us being out.
I see the Guardian and Observer are going tabloid, explicitly to save money - increasingly the print arm is being kept afloat by the very successful online arm. I wonder how many national print papers will exist in 20 years.
On topic, I'm wary of the tendency of the media to exagerrate (because it makes for more startling stories). The delays to forming a government and starting Brexit talks are not good signs, but they'll be barely noticed by most voters. As with a restaurant where service is slow, people will judge in the end by the quality of the food when it finally turns up. May is clearly not doing well, but she's not the total disaster that some think. In the same way, sooner or later Corbyn will do something controversial (or not do it, e.g. not reshuffling his Shadow Cabinet significantly) and we'll be told that he's squandered all the goodwill; again, the public will barely notice.
The Government has two major risks: a botched negotiation and a significant economic downturn, Everything else is froth.
Oh I also meant to add a story. This is a hypothetical story in the Sir Humphrey sense.
Consider someone I know well who may have been a senior civil servant of the last generation to negotiate international deals outwith the EU. After the Brexit vote, he and others who are not yet Gaga wrote to the Cabinet Office offering their services to help train their modern colleagues in some of the *ahem* darker arts. After a period of time, their offer was refused on the basis that the services of the major consultancies were to be used to train the current senior civil servants in the art of negotiation. That fits very well with Domenic Cumming's latest thoughts on the general (poor) state of our Civil Service machine.
The politicians are getting all the Brexit negotiation attention, but watch out or the civil service. Their ability to fail to deliver is the real worry now.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Well quite. People seem to forget that mega-Hard Brexit is the default outcome. With the government paralysed and the hard Right likely to veto any concessions to the continent, how can a pragmatic Brexit even get off the ground?
The hard right cannot veto anything, the Tories do not even have a majority and at least 10 of those Tory MPs are Europhiles
I see the Guardian and Observer are going tabloid, explicitly to save money - increasingly the print arm is being kept afloat by the very successful online arm. I wonder how many national print papers will exist in 20 years.
On topic, I'm wary of the tendency of the media to exagerrate (because it makes for more startling stories). The delays to forming a government and starting Brexit talks are not good signs, but they'll be barely noticed by most voters. As with a restaurant where service is slow, people will judge in the end by the quality of the food when it finally turns up. May is clearly not doing well, but she's not the total disaster that some think. In the same way, sooner or later Corbyn will do something controversial (or not do it, e.g. not reshuffling his Shadow Cabinet significantly) and we'll be told that he's squandered all the goodwill; again, the public will barely notice.
The Government has two major risks: a botched negotiation and a significant economic downturn, Everything else is froth.
A minority government always has an additional risk of being defeated by a minor backbench rebellion on something it didn't see coming.
Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.
Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.
As I understood it the whole point of the court case and the subsequent votes in Parliament was that the deal no longer needs the approval of Parliament. They had the vote. I am not saying I agree with this but I don't see where Parliament can actually amend anything prior to us being out.
Comments
TMICIPM to blame.
We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.
As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
Labour = England
The culture wars arrive in Britain
The election reveals astonishing changes in the political landscape"
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21723197-election-reveals-astonishing-changes-political-landscape-culture-wars-arrive
We need to save more, consume less, export more and invest more. The problem is selling it to the public...
The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.
I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.
TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
We flogged off overseas assets, then we flogged off Mayfair mansions and football teams. We borrowed money at household level, then we borrowed money at government level.
Its not surprising that we're now considering how to get our hands on housing equity - its the last great untapped source of cash to keep the spending spree going.
DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.
THEY.
WILL.
NOT.
MAKE.
CORBYN.
PM.
He's moved on. He's enjoying life at the moment.
She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
e.g. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11911078/The-Conservative-Party-needs-a-new-name.html
"Who would Jesus vote for?"
That is burble endlessly and pointlessly about your own particular version of Brexit, while people get worse off.
The LDs may even get what they asked for.
*Voice of the silent majority.
The Tories have 318 seats
All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.
If the DUP abstain the Tories win
If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.
IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
All governments lose support over time but this one is almost designed for that purpose. A discredited prime minister (or an unelected new one) kept going by an ultra-conservative minority party, unable to do much other than Brexit: Labour could not design a more provocative spectacle, one more likely to irk the young, the liberal, the urban. The Tories would regain the reputation that Mr Cameron spent a decade cleaning up. Each day of this government makes its reckoning at the hands of voters more severe.
The Tories must at least attempt a more lasting fix. A nation with a deficit to clear and a momentous Europe policy to shape needs one. And it is a strange day when Tories look to the 1970s as a time to recapture.
It reads like a Labour manifesto.
Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.
We have to reduce the debt as an imperative. We can therefore grow our way out (a business friendly economy outside the EU constraints, increasing our national wealth) or inflate our way out (just of our local debt, but at a heck of a cost for the elderly and the unemployed).
I think it was Niall Ferguson who made an observation on societies that rose and fell: history shows that societies with more merchants and soldiers rise while those with more priests and kings fall - I've been looking for the source for years and can't find it. Basically, societies that consume wealth faster than they create it are doomed. In the EU we were on that path. Out we may have a chance.
Labour 262
SNP 35
Lib Dems 12
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
That's 314. Add in Diane Abbott's mum, dad, gardener, second cousin, and maths teacher, and they're golden...
The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/13/diane-abbott-reveals-illness-and-hits-out-at-vicious-tory-campaign
There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
Though a byelection could do it...
Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.
Marty would turn in his grave...
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/874741765525446656
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/i-could-never-back-labour-if-corbyn-was-its-leader-says-hermon-35783622.html
On topic, I'm wary of the tendency of the media to exagerrate (because it makes for more startling stories). The delays to forming a government and starting Brexit talks are not good signs, but they'll be barely noticed by most voters. As with a restaurant where service is slow, people will judge in the end by the quality of the food when it finally turns up. May is clearly not doing well, but she's not the total disaster that some think. In the same way, sooner or later Corbyn will do something controversial (or not do it, e.g. not reshuffling his Shadow Cabinet significantly) and we'll be told that he's squandered all the goodwill; again, the public will barely notice.
The Government has two major risks: a botched negotiation and a significant economic downturn, Everything else is froth.
Consider someone I know well who may have been a senior civil servant of the last generation to negotiate international deals outwith the EU. After the Brexit vote, he and others who are not yet Gaga wrote to the Cabinet Office offering their services to help train their modern colleagues in some of the *ahem* darker arts. After a period of time, their offer was refused on the basis that the services of the major consultancies were to be used to train the current senior civil servants in the art of negotiation. That fits very well with Domenic Cumming's latest thoughts on the general (poor) state of our Civil Service machine.
The politicians are getting all the Brexit negotiation attention, but watch out or the civil service. Their ability to fail to deliver is the real worry now.