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  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:
    Great news for us brexit-sceptics.

    Brexit, I hope, will go down with her ship.
    And you call yourself a liberal democrat.
    A typical Liberal Democrat in fact - neither liberal nor democratic.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The remain forces are gathering.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: Why sacking people when you are in Theresa May's situation, is not a good idea... https://twitter.com/tonygallagher/status/874733524397559810
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:
    What is it about these public schoolboys and disloyalty?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Why sacking people when you are in Theresa May's situation, is not a good idea... https://twitter.com/tonygallagher/status/874733524397559810

    Especially when you were the guy who saw the Corbyn surge before the rest of the party...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    No idea why she is saying this (if, of course, she is). It is no longer in her hands.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Softest of Soft BREXITs looks likely.

    TMICIPM to blame.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    The soft Brexiteers of today will be the Remainers of tomorrow. The path of least resistance is Remain, not soft Brexit.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    ' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '

    That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.

    If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.

    That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.

    Its been magic money tree ever since.

    I agree.

    We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.

    As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
    Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.

    Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.

    Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.

    Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....

    And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.
    Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.
    I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.
    That's risible. Choreographed resignation designed to cause maximum discomfort to remain don't quite square with the oh so honest well intentioned politician you're describing.
    As you know.
    On one side we have an ex-chancellor who has flounced off, on the other side we have a man who devoted a decade of his life to reducing poverty in a fair way, and who is still fighting the good fight.

    I know who I'd trust more.
    I give up. When you're defending IDS and May you're going to be on the wrong side of any argument.
    Is all.
    Ad hom much?
    Chuckle.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Tories = France
    Labour = England

    :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Bagehot

    The culture wars arrive in Britain

    The election reveals astonishing changes in the political landscape"

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21723197-election-reveals-astonishing-changes-political-landscape-culture-wars-arrive
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    ' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '

    That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.

    If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.

    That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.

    Its been magic money tree ever since.

    I agree.

    We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.

    As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
    If you pay your bills by selling assets, eventually you will run out of assets. It's a sticking plaster, not a long term solution. All the extra dividends, rent and royalties that will flow out of the country make the situation worse in the long term.

    We need to save more, consume less, export more and invest more. The problem is selling it to the public...

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Has Laura K landed a job as May's personal PR in this reshuffle?

    @DanielJHannan: You know who's really bloody good? That @bbclaurak.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.

    Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.

    Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.

    Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....

    And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.
    Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.
    I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.
    Was it Osborne or Clarke who described him as "thick as pig shit". No matter, yet the Tories elected him as their leader.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
    Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.

    The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    Essexit said:

    Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.

    Truly, truly, truly ohhh
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    He can call one but May would win it now she has the DUP on board
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:
    Great news for us brexit-sceptics.

    Brexit, I hope, will go down with her ship.
    And you call yourself a liberal democrat.
    I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.

    Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.

    I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Essexit said:

    Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.

    Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.

    TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463

    ' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '

    That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.

    If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.

    That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.

    Its been magic money tree ever since.

    I agree.

    We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.

    As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
    Its been twenty years of self-indulgence.

    We flogged off overseas assets, then we flogged off Mayfair mansions and football teams. We borrowed money at household level, then we borrowed money at government level.

    Its not surprising that we're now considering how to get our hands on housing equity - its the last great untapped source of cash to keep the spending spree going.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
    Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
    No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,652
    Scott_P said:
    That doesn't bode well. The last time I heard talk of a name change was after the 1997 drubbing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    Essexit said:

    Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.

    Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.

    TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
    Err, I've been posting for ages that Osborne's finished in politics, he will never be an MP again.

    He's moved on. He's enjoying life at the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:
    Great news for us brexit-sceptics.

    Brexit, I hope, will go down with her ship.
    And you call yourself a liberal democrat.
    I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.

    Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.

    I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.
    Do you forsee the forthcoming Tory leadership contest as Soft vs Hard Brexiteer?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.

    Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.

    TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
    Osborne could be dead and buried, TSE would still predict his ascent from the grave.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Andrea - Cardiff Central should have been better for the Lib Dems. They really have been clobbered.

    Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.

    Osborne is a neo-liberal headbanger. He thought it would be OK to get a tax cut for the middle classes through whilst cutting welfare for the disabled.

    Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....

    And, yet, the enlightened on here still bashed IDS for his resignation over that.
    Yeah. Cos that's why he resigned.
    I find the distrust of IDS amongst party members one of the most bizarre sides of the neo-liberal elements of the Conservative party. Yes he was a hopeless leader. Yes he isn't the biggest dreamer or thinker in the world. But by-God is he a Tory through and through. And by-God I'd trust his intentions more than the identikit politicians who laughed at him.
    Was it Osborne or Clarke who described him as "thick as pig shit". No matter, yet the Tories elected him as their leader.
    No more than I would expect from that pair of tossers. Both Heathite in their ability to bear grudges.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    chloe said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
    Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
    No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
    It's not up to the UK though.

    She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    edited June 2017

    Scott_P said:
    That doesn't bode well. The last time I heard talk of a name change was after the 1997 drubbing.
    It has definitely been discussed more recently than that.

    e.g. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11911078/The-Conservative-Party-needs-a-new-name.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253

    chloe said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
    Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
    No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
    It's not up to the UK though.

    She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
    No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    JC??

    "Who would Jesus vote for?"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    Scott_P said:
    Thing is I reckon he's right. Notice that one thing he doesn't say should be done.
    That is burble endlessly and pointlessly about your own particular version of Brexit, while people get worse off.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RoyalBlue said:

    ' How can Britain get out of this oscillating cycle of destructive populism? The first step is for some serious politicians to speak out against it. And there too the prospects are bleak. The centre has been hollowed out. Brexit cleared out the Conservatives who were able and prepared to do this: David Cameron and George Osborne have left the stage. '

    That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.

    If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.

    That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.

    Its been magic money tree ever since.

    I agree.

    We could survive a current account deficit by importing capital. Fortunately foreigners have been willing to buy up British assets and keep us in the style to which we are accustmed.

    As long as we don't do anything to damage the international brand of Britain, or to annoy foreigners by appearing xenophopbic we will be fine.
    If you pay your bills by selling assets, eventually you will run out of assets. It's a sticking plaster, not a long term solution. All the extra dividends, rent and royalties that will flow out of the country make the situation worse in the long term.

    We need to save more, consume less, export more and invest more. The problem is selling it to the public...

    Selling assets to fund current expenditure was what Macmillan attacked Mrs Thatcher's privatisations for: selling the family silver. Governments have been at it ever since. Industrialists too.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Reading the above I do wonder how Alastair and others will feel in a few years time once we've left the EU if the economy is booming, or even just doing OK. My hunch is disappointed.

    Some will. WIlliamglenn will certainly be amongst them. I actually don't think Alastair will. He doesn't strike me as an ideologue.

    TSE will still be moaning about how mean we were to Cameron and predicting a comeback for Osbourne.
    Osborne could be dead and buried, TSE would still predict his ascent from the grave.
    He's over it, he's enjoying death underground!
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
    Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.

    The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
    Certainly everything will have to go back and forth through Parliament and Downing Street
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    chloe said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
    Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
    No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
    It's not up to the UK though.

    She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
    We shouldn't have got into this position in the first place.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited June 2017

    chloe said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
    Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
    No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
    It's not up to the UK though.

    She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
    No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.
    Sorry Richard, I'll take the advice of Clifford Chance, Slaughter and May, and KPMG over your opinions.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
    Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.

    The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
    I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*


    *Voice of the silent majority.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.

    The Tories have 318 seats
    All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.

    If the DUP abstain the Tories win
    If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.

    IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    Only if the LDs vote down the government
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited June 2017
    Janan in the FT:

    All governments lose support over time but this one is almost designed for that purpose. A discredited prime minister (or an unelected new one) kept going by an ultra-conservative minority party, unable to do much other than Brexit: Labour could not design a more provocative spectacle, one more likely to irk the young, the liberal, the urban. The Tories would regain the reputation that Mr Cameron spent a decade cleaning up. Each day of this government makes its reckoning at the hands of voters more severe.

    The Tories must at least attempt a more lasting fix. A nation with a deficit to clear and a momentous Europe policy to shape needs one. And it is a strange day when Tories look to the 1970s as a time to recapture.


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    DUP don't even need to abstain. Thanks to SF's anti-Britishness, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster a maximum of 315 seats.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Scott_P said:
    So Hammond doesn't want free trade with the rest of the world. What a f*ckwit.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    chloe said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
    Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
    No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
    It's not up to the UK though.

    She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
    No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.
    Sorry Richard, I'll take the advice of Clifford Chance, Slaughter and May, and KPMG over your opinions.
    The EU27 have made an explicity decided to work as one in the negotiations. They are far, far more united than we are.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No comment confidence motion needs a clear majority to pass. Please explain how Labour plus anyone without DUP get 319...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    Eh? If the DUP abstained the Tories would win. They have a majority of 4 in GB.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Both Labour and the Tories are committed to Brexit without a second referendum, what level of access we get to the single market depends on the concessions given on free movement and payments to the EU and the DUP and Europhile Tories will ensure more concessions will be given than would have been the case with a clear Tory majority
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:
    Great news for us brexit-sceptics.

    Brexit, I hope, will go down with her ship.
    And you call yourself a liberal democrat.
    I just voted LD. I'm generally a non-tribal liberal centre-left voter, but not a member of any party.

    Most likely will be voting Lab at the next election.

    I've been radicalised enough that I may even join Lab & campaign for JC if that kicks the current nutters out of power. I still do hold onto a remote hope that the redistributive/remainer/liberal wing will win the post-May power struggle in the conservative party.
    Read Rob Halfon's vision for the Tory party (in the Sun).

    It reads like a Labour manifesto.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    DUP don't even need to abstain. Thanks to SF's anti-Britishness, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster a maximum of 315 seats.
    AIUI, the independent NI is a unionist, so not likely to sit with Corbyn.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I would think this proves sacking Halfon to be a good idea. Clearly too close to Osborne and clearly someone who cannot be trusted.

    Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,652

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Well quite. People seem to forget that mega-Hard Brexit is the default outcome. With the government paralysed and the hard Right likely to veto any concessions to the continent, how can a pragmatic Brexit even get off the ground?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No comment confidence motion needs a clear majority to pass. Please explain how Labour plus anyone without DUP get 319...
    So how long can we go without a Queen's Speech ?
  • For me our national debt is the overriding issue. We cannot reduce taxes or increase spending with that hanging over us. God forbid we are in a war of national survival and have to borrow to pay for our defence as we have had to do in the past.

    We have to reduce the debt as an imperative. We can therefore grow our way out (a business friendly economy outside the EU constraints, increasing our national wealth) or inflate our way out (just of our local debt, but at a heck of a cost for the elderly and the unemployed).

    I think it was Niall Ferguson who made an observation on societies that rose and fell: history shows that societies with more merchants and soldiers rise while those with more priests and kings fall - I've been looking for the source for years and can't find it. Basically, societies that consume wealth faster than they create it are doomed. In the EU we were on that path. Out we may have a chance.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.

    The Tories have 318 seats
    All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.

    If the DUP abstain the Tories win
    If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.

    IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
    Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
    Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.

    The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
    I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*


    *Voice of the silent majority.
    Why would you? They are only our neighbours, allies and partners after all.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Does EU law prevent renationalisation of pulblic services ?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No comment confidence motion needs a clear majority to pass. Please explain how Labour plus anyone without DUP get 319...
    Easy, innit:

    Labour 262
    SNP 35
    Lib Dems 12
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1

    That's 314. Add in Diane Abbott's mum, dad, gardener, second cousin, and maths teacher, and they're golden...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited June 2017

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.

    The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Both Labour and the Tories are committed to Brexit without a second referendum, what level of access we get to the single market depends on the concessions given on free movement and payments to the EU and the DUP and Europhile Tories will ensure more concessions will be given than would have been the case with a clear Tory majority
    I meant no party would risk withdrawing A50 withhout a second referendum.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    edited June 2017
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.

    The Tories have 318 seats
    All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.

    If the DUP abstain the Tories win
    If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.

    IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
    Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Now that we have a hung parliament and the DUP hold the balance of power and back a softer Brexit inevitably a hard Brexit is dead even if May wanted it as she cannot get it through Parliament, fudged Brexit is most likely
    Indeed I would expect a Tory europhile rebellion anyway. Cameron rounds up the troops from outside the Commons and it's goodbye.

    The Europeans must be looking at us and wondering what changed in our water system a few years back to send us all stark raving mad.
    I couldn't give a monkeys what the Europeans think, tbh.*


    *Voice of the silent majority.
    Why would you? They are only our neighbours, allies and partners after all.
    And swear loyalty? Never.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.

    The Tories have 318 seats
    All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.

    If the DUP abstain the Tories win
    If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.

    IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
    Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.
    To do so would be the gravest of sins, national apostasy.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    edited June 2017
    Brom said:

    I would think this proves sacking Halfon to be a good idea. Clearly too close to Osborne and clearly someone who cannot be trusted.

    Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.</

    Halfon positioning himself as potential stalking horse?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.

    The Tories have 318 seats
    All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.

    If the DUP abstain the Tories win
    If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.

    IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
    Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.
    To do so would be the gravest of sins, national apostasy.
    Makes you wonder why UKIP have no qualms about taking their seats in Brussels.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    Brom said:

    I would think this proves sacking Halfon to be a good idea. Clearly too close to Osborne and clearly someone who cannot be trusted.

    Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.

    Halfon is awful. He had to go.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.

    The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
    Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?

    There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    DUP don't even need to abstain. Thanks to SF's anti-Britishness, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster a maximum of 315 seats.
    AIUI, the independent NI is a unionist, so not likely to sit with Corbyn.
    But she is pro-Labour none-the-less. Lady Hermon quit the UUP over their brief alliance with the Tories at GE2010.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.

    The Tories have 318 seats
    All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.

    If the DUP abstain the Tories win
    If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.

    IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
    Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.
    They would have to take the loyal oath quickly!

    Though a byelection could do it...

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    To be honest I'd be happy if the Government fell because of Sinn Fein turning up and voting.

    Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    Brom said:

    I would think this proves sacking Halfon to be a good idea. Clearly too close to Osborne and clearly someone who cannot be trusted.

    Tories would do well to get the media talking about Brown's attempted deal with the DUP. Would take the sting out of things a bit.

    Sadly the Tory Party does not own the media anymore.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111

    To be honest I'd be happy if the Government fell because of Sinn Fein turning up and voting.

    Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.

    Yup. I think I'm with you there...

    Marty would turn in his grave...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    JonathanD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.

    The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
    Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?

    There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
    As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.

    The Tories have 318 seats
    All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.

    If the DUP abstain the Tories win
    If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.

    IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
    Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.
    To do so would be the gravest of sins, national apostasy.
    Makes you wonder why UKIP have no qualms about taking their seats in Brussels.
    UKIP aren't Sinn Fein. They're only there to cause trouble.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531

    To be honest I'd be happy if the Government fell because of Sinn Fein turning up and voting.

    Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.

    About as likely as Corbyn voting for Trident.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725

    To be honest I'd be happy if the Government fell because of Sinn Fein turning up and voting.

    Because the sight of the Shinners swearing loyalty to the Queen would be hilarious.

    There must be other languages they could do it in. Like Welsh,
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    DUP don't even need to abstain. Thanks to SF's anti-Britishness, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster a maximum of 315 seats.
    AIUI, the independent NI is a unionist, so not likely to sit with Corbyn.
    But she is pro-Labour none-the-less. Lady Hermon quit the UUP over their brief alliance with the Tories at GE2010.
    She has her faults, but Sylvia Hermon is rock-solid on Corbyn:

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/i-could-never-back-labour-if-corbyn-was-its-leader-says-hermon-35783622.html
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    chloe said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    How? We didn't get endorsed by the public for hard Brexit. We need to reach out to Labour and other parties to get a cross party mandate together, the public have told the party to compromise, if we push ahead anyway it will be a huge problem for us in the future.
    Because we won't be getting a good deal (or any deal), we're falling out on WTO terms.
    No way can May get hard Brexit through the Commons now. Maastricht all over again. Labour landslide.
    It's not up to the UK though.

    She has to deal with 27 other nations to get the trade deal through.
    No she doesn't. QMV. I am not saying it will be easy but you really do need to stop making these mistakes considering your claims to be some sort of expert.
    Lucky for PB that we have you to correct us ;)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    IanB2 said:

    JonathanD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.

    The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
    Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?

    There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
    As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.
    As I understood it the whole point of the court case and the subsequent votes in Parliament was that the deal no longer needs the approval of Parliament. They had the vote. I am not saying I agree with this but I don't see where Parliament can actually amend anything prior to us being out.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    I see the Guardian and Observer are going tabloid, explicitly to save money - increasingly the print arm is being kept afloat by the very successful online arm. I wonder how many national print papers will exist in 20 years.

    On topic, I'm wary of the tendency of the media to exagerrate (because it makes for more startling stories). The delays to forming a government and starting Brexit talks are not good signs, but they'll be barely noticed by most voters. As with a restaurant where service is slow, people will judge in the end by the quality of the food when it finally turns up. May is clearly not doing well, but she's not the total disaster that some think. In the same way, sooner or later Corbyn will do something controversial (or not do it, e.g. not reshuffling his Shadow Cabinet significantly) and we'll be told that he's squandered all the goodwill; again, the public will barely notice.

    The Government has two major risks: a botched negotiation and a significant economic downturn, Everything else is froth.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Drutt said:

    In such circumstances you could, when someone says "Don't vote that way, it'll ruin the economy", forgive them for not listening.

    Maybe once in a generation or two they have to discover reality the hard way.
  • Oh I also meant to add a story. This is a hypothetical story in the Sir Humphrey sense.

    Consider someone I know well who may have been a senior civil servant of the last generation to negotiate international deals outwith the EU. After the Brexit vote, he and others who are not yet Gaga wrote to the Cabinet Office offering their services to help train their modern colleagues in some of the *ahem* darker arts. After a period of time, their offer was refused on the basis that the services of the major consultancies were to be used to train the current senior civil servants in the art of negotiation. That fits very well with Domenic Cumming's latest thoughts on the general (poor) state of our Civil Service machine.

    The politicians are getting all the Brexit negotiation attention, but watch out or the civil service. Their ability to fail to deliver is the real worry now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Well quite. People seem to forget that mega-Hard Brexit is the default outcome. With the government paralysed and the hard Right likely to veto any concessions to the continent, how can a pragmatic Brexit even get off the ground?
    The hard right cannot veto anything, the Tories do not even have a majority and at least 10 of those Tory MPs are Europhiles
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    So how long does May have before JC can call a vote of no confidence?

    Hilarious Hubris if he called one.

    DUP would abstain and he'd lose it.

    THEY.
    WILL.
    NOT.
    MAKE.
    CORBYN.
    PM.
    If the DUP abstained the Tories would lose.
    No they wouldn't. The only way they can lose is if the DUP vote against them.

    The Tories have 318 seats
    All the other parties combined except the DUP have 314 seats.

    If the DUP abstain the Tories win
    If the DUP vote with Labour then the Tories lose.

    IT is the same for a Labour Government. If the Tories do not break ranks them Corbyn needs the active support of the DUP to get a QS through.
    Assuming that SF won't turn up to vote.
    Yep but everyone keeps saying that won't happen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725

    I see the Guardian and Observer are going tabloid, explicitly to save money - increasingly the print arm is being kept afloat by the very successful online arm. I wonder how many national print papers will exist in 20 years.

    On topic, I'm wary of the tendency of the media to exagerrate (because it makes for more startling stories). The delays to forming a government and starting Brexit talks are not good signs, but they'll be barely noticed by most voters. As with a restaurant where service is slow, people will judge in the end by the quality of the food when it finally turns up. May is clearly not doing well, but she's not the total disaster that some think. In the same way, sooner or later Corbyn will do something controversial (or not do it, e.g. not reshuffling his Shadow Cabinet significantly) and we'll be told that he's squandered all the goodwill; again, the public will barely notice.

    The Government has two major risks: a botched negotiation and a significant economic downturn, Everything else is froth.

    A minority government always has an additional risk of being defeated by a minor backbench rebellion on something it didn't see coming.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725

    IanB2 said:

    JonathanD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sticking to hard Brexit is literally idiotic. She's a fool.

    Hard Brexit is all that's left. She needs to be able to spin it as a victory.
    There are not the votes for it in Parliament after the Tories lost their majority, Brexit will now effectively be dictated by the DUP and a few moderate Tory MPs who want a softer Brexit than she was planning for before
    WTO diamond hard Brexit looks increasingly likely to me. There is no plan for Brexit, the team are fighting amongst themselves and the ticking is getting louder. No party would risk the electoral consequences of withdrawing without a second referendum.

    The LDs may even get what they asked for.
    Yes, a second referendum is coming. By the time the deal is done - whether soft, as looks increasingly likely, or not - and even if a deal isn't done - there will be enough of an outcry from people who weren't expecting what is on offer which, coupled with the majority view in the new Commons that the whole thing is madness to begin with, will make a vote on it both attractive and unavoidable.

    The odds for an EUref2 have come in considerably already.
    Except how will the legislation for it get proposed?

    There might be a majority of MPs in favour of it but as long as the Tory leadership is against, it can't happen.
    As an amendment to whatever is tabled regarding the deal, when it goes to parliament.
    As I understood it the whole point of the court case and the subsequent votes in Parliament was that the deal no longer needs the approval of Parliament. They had the vote. I am not saying I agree with this but I don't see where Parliament can actually amend anything prior to us being out.
    The deal will go to parliament, for sure.
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