politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prime Minister Theresa May Episode II

In the current circumstances, first doesn't mean first.

Her decision to call an early election was widely praised by the pundits as smart politics...

It probably was - or could have been.

Just that calling one without any consultation on the manifesto, or any plan on how to campaign wasn't. And if May really is as crap as she revealed herself to be during the campaign, maybe it's as well we found out before the Brexit negotiations ?

Is it possible that we're living in one of the least worst possible of all worlds ?

It can't be any worse than Episode 1, at least JarJar won't have a starring role.

stevef said:

A question which no one seems able to answer is: will the 2018 constituency boundaries be implemented given the new parliamentary arithmetic? Will it get through the Commons?. Because if it does get through, and an election can be put off until then, Labour may well find its curent hubris to be premature.

The Sunday Times said the boundary changes wouldn't pass nor would the reduction in 600 seats because they damage the DUP/Unionists in Northern Ireland.

logical_song said:

2nd - make me PM

Another one caught up in the anti-Tory hubris

If May resigns, and the Tories go for a full leadership contest, I can't see how there can be either a Queens Speech or any meaningful deal with the DUP. And there has to be a QS sooner than that. For these reasons alone May hast to stick around until parliament goes into recess. And suffer the laughter and ridicule from the benches opposite for a few very painful PMQs.

Likely resignation date is the date the house breaks up for the summer?

stevef said:

A question which no one seems able to answer is: will the 2018 constituency boundaries be implemented given the new parliamentary arithmetic? Will it get through the Commons?. Because if it does get through, and an election can be put off until then, Labour may well find its curent hubris to be premature.

No. The question is effectively answered by the discussion in the previous thread.

"I firmly believe that Theresa May has a strong sense of duty. Many would have resigned office on Friday morning but I believe that she has stayed in office out of a sense that would be letting the nation down. If she wants to serve the nation best, she will need to make some dramatic adjustments. If she is allowed the chance and she manages it, she might even find that she becomes a better Prime Minister".

Do you really believe that or are you being nice? Everything about Mrs May's character suggests a woman seething with ambition and pride and any thought that she'd accept being the shortest serving PM for over a hundred years was to be avoided at all costs.

It's an interesting header, but I really can't see May as someone with the political or personal skills to build the kind of consensus envisaged.

She has patience - but not patience with other people; it is the patience of a loner.
She has a sense of duty - but is tat coupled with the judgment to realise when it is time for her to go in the interests of the nation ?
As for her analytical capacity, identifying problems is one thing; solutions another.

tpfkar said:

Can't they write it on Nick Timothy's hide instead to save time?

Is it wrong to be really, really, enjoying the Tories squirming after their arrogance over the past months?

If it's wrong, I don't want to be right.

logical_song said:

Mortimer said:

logical_song said:

2nd - make me PM

Another one caught up in the anti-Tory hubris

Que?
Corbyn came second and wants to be PM.
Pay attention.

To be fair, a sense of humour failure is quite understandable in the present circumstances.

Roger said:

"I firmly believe that Theresa May has a strong sense of duty. Many would have resigned office on Friday morning but I believe that she has stayed in office out of a sense that would be letting the nation down. If she wants to serve the nation best, she will need to make some dramatic adjustments. If she is allowed the chance and she manages it, she might even find that she becomes a better Prime Minister".

Do you really believe that or are you being nice? Everything about Mrs May's character suggests a woman seething with ambition and pride and any tought that she'd accept being the shortest serving PM for over a hundred years was never an option..

Over-promoted. Gordon Brown without the brains.

Theresa May cannot and will not be allowed to fight another election. But there has to be an orderly transition if possible. The Commons maths is enough in her favour to allow that. But she will be being told she's on borrowed time and how she uses that will determine whether she's remembered as the worst PM ever or one of the worst PMs ever.

Episode II: Attack of the Peter Bones?

AlastairMeeks said:

tpfkar said:

Can't they write it on Nick Timothy's hide instead to save time?

Is it wrong to be really, really, enjoying the Tories squirming after their arrogance over the past months?

If it's wrong, I don't want to be right.

Spare a thought for those Tories among us who have been suggesting that doing nothing for a year wasn't an indication of greatness.

I don't think any of it works, the numbers are exactly wrong for anyone to form a workable government. They need a new election.

Mortimer said:

logical_song said:

Mortimer said:

logical_song said:

2nd - make me PM

Another one caught up in the anti-Tory hubris

Que?
Corbyn came second and wants to be PM.
Pay attention.

Yep - I was poking fun at that notion....

It's not surprising that Corbyn is an anti-Tory.

surbiton said:

"Many would have resigned office on Friday morning but I believe that she has stayed in office out of a sense that would be letting the nation down."

Maybe, there is a simpler explanation. She just likes the trappings of power.

Do you think she's enjoying herself right now?

tpfkar said:

Can't they write it on Nick Timothy's hide instead to save time?

Is it wrong to be really, really, enjoying the Tories squirming after their arrogance over the past months?

The only constraint is that your enjoyment must not surpass the level displayed by PB Tories as they foretold a future with only 100 Labour MPs and LibDems needing a second MP to have a leadership election.

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Theresa May cannot and will not be allowed to fight another election. But there has to be an orderly transition if possible. The Commons maths is enough in her favour to allow that. But she will be being told she's on borrowed time and how she uses that will determine whether she's remembered as the worst PM ever or one of the worst PMs ever.

SouthamObserver said:

Although we know the good of the country is not a Tory priority, if she were ever to think about trying to govern in the national interest Mrs May might:

1. Keep as far away as possible from the swivel-eyed Tory right.

2. Stop pandering to the right wing press.

3. Apologise for her citizens of nowhere and saboteur sabre rattling.

4. Start talking about Europe as our friend, not our enemy.

5. Run a mile from Donald Trump.

6 Plead with David Cameron to come back as an MP and immediately take the Chiltern Hundreds?

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

stevef said:

A question which no one seems able to answer is: will the 2018 constituency boundaries be implemented given the new parliamentary arithmetic? Will it get through the Commons?. Because if it does get through, and an election can be put off until then, Labour may well find its curent hubris to be premature.

The Sunday Times said the boundary changes wouldn't pass nor would the reduction in 600 seats because they damage the DUP/Unionists in Northern Ireland.

What about 650 seats ?

The next review will:

- start again, with a projected finish date probably in 2020
- use up-to-date (the current) registration data
- have a target of 650 seats
- have more flexible criteria, either a return to the old +/- 10% or/and to the old discretion to breach the limits for good community reasons

All of this will produce an outcome where the majority of existing seats are merely tweaked, rather than trashed. The only significant changes will be to Wales, the IOW (split), and a few areas with outlier electoral change.

MaxPB said:

Just watched a video of Kwarteng giving an interview in C4, he's just so smooth and confident. It's the complete opposite of Theresa. No nervousness, he's clearly been well briefed and he is flexible enough to answer the questions being asked. He also says that we'd only leave the single market to stop free movement and he gets the point across that Labour have the same view, one of the only politicians on our side to make that point.

He deserves a shot at the top job, we need to have a full leadership election and I hope he gets serious backing for it from some of the old guard who's time has clearly passed.

I agree, I like him.

isam said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

MyBurningEars said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

isam said:

Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.

And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.

Remedial democracy, again.

For o much sleep.

BUT /EFTA?

As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times now

Excets. Good to know.

W out. It really stifles sensible debate when people make comments like yours, theyre not even witty

The it.

I think isam's point is absolutely reasonable actually - for lots of people the priority is to ensure Brexit happens, but are largely indifferent about what form it takes. Moreover, they really do not want controversy about the form of Brexit to be the very thing that derails Brexit.

This is not at all dissimilar to e.g. some Scottish pro-independence voters not having strong opinions about whether Scotland should keep the pound or the monarchy after independence - even if they did have a preference, they would rather take some form of independence than none, and would be upset if the thing that prevented independence was other people unable to agree on a strategy with respect to these things. It's particularly galling if you realise that fine details can be changed in the years to come - so long as independence happens.

I get that point. In principle. But as ever it is the devil in the details. It is an emotive "cry freedom" view that of course is perfectly legitimate. But it is a false premise. These are the people who voted Leave to reclaim sovereignty but, as has been confirmed by David "Arch Brexiter" Davis, we were always sovereign, it was just that "it didn't feel like it".

So when someone says "thank god we are out of the EU and yes I'd be happy with the EEA/EFTA" it is the height of illogicality and I think an interesting topic for debate.

At a time when people are desperately trying to twist us out of leaving, any form of leaving is Ok with me. The terms of our relationship with the EU afterwards are not set in stone forever by the first deal, and can/will constantly change. What is important to me is that we leave.

Neither of the major political parties is trying to twist us out of leaving.

So although I really don't want to rehash those pre-Ref debates, given that EEA/EFTA would be fine, given that we were always sovereign while in the EU, what is it about the EU that you don't actually like?

In contrast to John McDonnell Keir Starmer is making Labour look like a serious government in waiting. He's pointed out the obvious which is that if you want a sensible deal with the EU you don't insult them and you keep your negotiating position as fluid as possible.

He's starting to sound like a real contender. A man for our times. None of the dogmatism and soundbites that turned off so many at the last election

Peter_the_Punter said:

SouthamObserver said:

stevef said:

A question which no one seems able to answer is: will the 2018 constituency boundaries be implemented given the new parliamentary arithmetic? Will it get through the Commons?. Because if it does get through, and an election can be put off until then, Labour may well find its curent hubris to be premature.

Look at the DUP and Sinn Fein seats:

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/874225962287857664

Wow! The DUP aren't going to allow that.

Actually the Tories are helped a little. SF not taking those 9 seats makes the practical majority required 296 (against 322 now) and the Tories would therefore be able to govern alone with more comfort.

The delay with the DUP is detail and poker. Both have no interest is seeing corbyn in and both know this but a considerable chicken and egg situation is present as both circle for who an as yet theoretical corbyn led govt would be worse for.

Much of what the DUP woukd like at local level is driven by the local Assembly being there to make use of it. Its in sinn fein boycott. The government will sign cheques but preferably not unless the Assembly is up and running. The starting point therefore fir the government is that no cash flows until then. Part of the surround is how to get the show at Stormont running again. This means telling Sinn Fein that their boycott is out of road.

The second hitch is detail. There are a number of down the list DUP requests plus one or two top list issues which have national implications that are still in discussions. Sone of the national level issues may well be changes the government is going to make anyway from previous manifesto ideas that tanked. The down the lists though are smaller but possibly sensitive.

Most big list issues are agreed.

surbiton said:

IanB2 said:

tpfkar said:

Can't they write it on Nick Timothy's hide instead to save time?

Is it wrong to be really, really, enjoying the Tories squirming after their arrogance over the past months?

The only constraint is that your enjoyment must not surpass the level displayed by PB Tories as they foretold a future with only 100 Labour MPs and LibDems needing a second MP to have a leadership election.

Right upto 10pm on Thursday. After that, for the next hour, the exit poll was wrong.

Whereas now its the election that was wrong!

isam said:

MaxPB said:

Just watched a video of Kwarteng giving an interview in C4, he's just so smooth and confident. It's the complete opposite of Theresa. No nervousness, he's clearly been well briefed and he is flexible enough to answer the questions being asked. He also says that we'd only leave the single market to stop free movement and he gets the point across that Labour have the same view, one of the only politicians on our side to make that point.

He deserves a shot at the top job, we need to have a full leadership election and I hope he gets serious backing for it from some of the old guard who's time has clearly passed.

I agree, I like him.

Like you said on the previous thread, even though it shouldn't be an issue, it does also disarm one of the biggest smear tactics used by the left which is a bonus.

Roger said:

In contrast to John McDonnell Keir Starmer is making Labour look like a serious government in waiting. He's pointed out the obvious which is that if you want a sensible deal with the EU you don't insult them and you keep your negotiating position as fluid as possible.

He's starting to sound like a real contender. A man for our times. None of the dogmatism and soundbites that turned off so many at the last election

But as of Thursday, he's not a contender for Labour's leadership because they are confirmed as a party of the far left.

IanB2 said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

stevef said:

A question which no one seems able to answer is: will the 2018 constituency boundaries be implemented given the new parliamentary arithmetic? Will it get through the Commons?. Because if it does get through, and an election can be put off until then, Labour may well find its curent hubris to be premature.

The Sunday Times said the boundary changes wouldn't pass nor would the reduction in 600 seats because they damage the DUP/Unionists in Northern Ireland.

What about 650 seats ?

The next review will:

- start again, with a projected finish date probably in 2020
- use up-to-date (the current) registration data
- have a target of 650 seats
- have more flexible criteria, either a return to the old +/- 10% or/and to the old discretion to breach the limits for good community reasons

All of this will produce an outcome where the majority of existing seats are merely tweaked, rather than trashed. The only significant changes will be to Wales, the IOW (split), and a few areas with outlier electoral change.

Current registration data will be much more favourable to Labour, surely.

DearPB said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SouthamObserver said:

stevef said:

A question which no one seems able to answer is: will the 2018 constituency boundaries be implemented given the new parliamentary arithmetic? Will it get through the Commons?. Because if it does get through, and an election can be put off until then, Labour may well find its curent hubris to be premature.

Look at the DUP and Sinn Fein seats:

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/874225962287857664

Wow! The DUP aren't going to allow that.

Actually the Tories are helped a little. SF not taking those 9 seats makes the practical majority required 296 (against 322 now) and the Tories would therefore be able to govern alone with more comfort.

SF can change its policy at the drop of a hat though, especially a bowler hat.

isam said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

MyBurningEars said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

isam said:

Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.

And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.

Remedial democracy, again.

For o much sleep.

BUT /EFTA?

As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times now

Excets. Good to know.

W out. It really stifles sensible debate when people make comments like yours, theyre not even witty

about it.

I think isam's point is absolutely reasonable actually - for lots of people the priority is to ensure Brexit happens, but are largely indifferent about what form it takes. Moreover, they really do not want controversy about the form of Brexit to be the very thing that derails Brexit.

This is not at all dissimilar to e.g. some Scottish pro-independence voters not having strong opinions about whether Scotland should keep the pound or the monarchy after independence - even if they did have a preference, they would rather take some form of independence than none, and would be upset if the thing that prevented independence was other people unable to agree on a strategy with respect to these things. It's particularly galling if you realise that fine details can be changed in the years to come - so long as independence happens.

I get that point. In principle. But as ever it is the devil in the details. It is an emotive "cry freedom" view that of course is perfectly legitimate. But it is a false premise. These are the people who voted Leave to reclaim sovereignty but, as has been confirmed by David "Arch Brexiter" Davis, we were always sovereign, it was just that "it didn't feel like it".

So when someone says "thank god we are out of the EU and yes I'd be happy with the EEA/EFTA" it is the height of illogicality and I think an interesting topic for debate.

At a time when people are desperately trying to twist us out of leaving, any form of leaving is Ok with me. The terms of our relationship with the EU afterwards are not set in stone forever by the first deal, and can/will constantly change. What is important to me is that we leave.

Why if you have no preference as to what leaving means? It's not a haunted house that you have to get out of because it spooks you.

isam said:

MaxPB said:

Just watched a video of Kwarteng giving an interview in C4, he's just so smooth and confident. It's the complete opposite of Theresa. No nervousness, he's clearly been well briefed and he is flexible enough to answer the questions being asked. He also says that we'd only leave the single market to stop free movement and he gets the point across that Labour have the same view, one of the only politicians on our side to make that point.

He deserves a shot at the top job, we need to have a full leadership election and I hope he gets serious backing for it from some of the old guard who's time has clearly passed.

I agree, I like him.

Kwarteng is not even in the Cabinet, is a Eurosceptic rightwinger but too intellectual to take on Corbyn we need a charismatic populist like Boris or someone with balls like Davidson, Corbyn has been able to get away with too much for too long. Kwarteng should be in the cabinet certainly but is not the leader needed now

calum said:

https://twitter.com/UlsterElects/status/874242333444890624

And if Tezza was sensible that is what she would institute. Is she listening?

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

"I firmly believe that Theresa May has a strong sense of duty. Many would have resigned office on Friday morning but I believe that she has stayed in office out of a sense that would be letting the nation down. If she wants to serve the nation best, she will need to make some dramatic adjustments. If she is allowed the chance and she manages it, she might even find that she becomes a better Prime Minister".

Do you really believe that or are you being nice? Everything about Mrs May's character suggests a woman seething with ambition and pride and any tought that she'd accept being the shortest serving PM for over a hundred years was never an option..

Over-promoted. Gordon Brown without the brains.

Though her 42% is rather better than his 29%

Roger said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

MyBurningEars said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

isam said:

Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.

And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.

Remedial democracy, again.

For o much sleep.

BUT /EFTA?

As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times now

Excets. Good to know.

W out. It really stifles sensible debate when people make comments like yours, theyre not even witty

about it.

I think isam's point is absolutely reasonable actually - for lots of people the priority is to ensure Brexit happens, but are largely indifferent about what form it takes. Moreover, they really do not want controversy about the form of Brexit to be the very thing that derails Brexit.

This is not at all dissimilar to e.g. some Scottish pro-independence voters not having strong opinions about whether Scotland should keep the pound or the monarchy after independence - even if they did have a preference, they would rather take some form of independence than none, and would be upset if the thing that prevented independence was other people unable to agree on a strategy with respect to these things. It's particularly galling if you realise that fine details can be changed in the years to come - so long as independence happens.

I get that point. In principle. But as ever it is the devil in the details. It is an emotive "cry freedom" view that of course is perfectly legitimate. But it is a false premise. These are the people who voted Leave to reclaim sovereignty but, as has been confirmed by David "Arch Brexiter" Davis, we were always sovereign, it was just that "it didn't feel like it".

So when someone says "thank god we are out of the EU and yes I'd be happy with the EEA/EFTA" it is the height of illogicality and I think an interesting topic for debate.

At a time when people are desperately trying to twist us out of leaving, any form of leaving is Ok with me. The terms of our relationship with the EU afterwards are not set in stone forever by the first deal, and can/will constantly change. What is important to me is that we leave.

Why if you have no preference as to what leaving means? It's not a haunted house that you have to get out of because it spooks you.

One twat at a time I'm afraid today Rog

Roger said:

"I firmly believe that Theresa May has a strong sense of duty. Many would have resigned office on Friday morning but I believe that she has stayed in office out of a sense that would be letting the nation down. If she wants to serve the nation best, she will need to make some dramatic adjustments. If she is allowed the chance and she manages it, she might even find that she becomes a better Prime Minister".

Do you really believe that or are you being nice? Everything about Mrs May's character suggests a woman seething with ambition and pride and any thought that she'd accept being the shortest serving PM for over a hundred years was to be avoided at all costs.

I can't help but feel a reflexive pity as May has come to very much physically resemble my mother in the last few months of her life when dementia & physical frailty kicked in. Then I remember my mum didn't choose to be there while May has, so the pity lessens.

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

MyBurningEars said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

isam said:

Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.

And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.

Remedial democracy, again.

For o much sleep.

BUT /EFTA?

As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times now

Excets. Good to know.

W out. It really stifles sensible debate when people make comments like yours, theyre not even witty

The it.

I think isam's point is absolutely reasonable actually - for lots of people the priority is to ensure Brexit happens, but are largely indifferent about what form it takes. Moreover, they really do not want controversy about the form of Brexit to be the very thing that derails Brexit.

.

".

.

s important to me is that we leave.

Neither of the major political parties is trying to twist us out of leaving.

So although I really don't want to rehash those pre-Ref debates, given that EEA/EFTA would be fine, given that we were always sovereign while in the EU, what is it about the EU that you didn't actually like?

It is amazing that even though I am restraining myself beyond all known measure in my responses to you, you still keep digging and digging, it must have been going on for years now.

The debate that you stepped into, between ScottP and I, was based on his assertion that no party had a mandate for Brexit, so it might not happen.

As I have said, maybe two dozen times now, I am happy for the current govt, whoever it may be, we have had a couple since you started hammering on about it, to negotiate the deal however they like, hard/soft/EFTA/EEA whatever. These things aren't set in stone and can and will change over time. I would like to leave completely but I am not self important enough to think that matters or stupid enough to think that's how it works.

Why do you give a fuck what I think anyway?! I dont care what you do

I care Sam because it gives me an insight into the mind of a Brexiter and indeed it has done just that. Plus why should you get a free pass on your illogicality?

If you don't want to be challenged or engaged on what you write on an internet discussion board...don't write it.

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

MyBurningEars said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

isam said:

Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.

And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.

Remedial democracy, again.

For o much sleep.

BUT /EFTA?

As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times now

Excets. Good to know.

W out. It really stifles sensible debate when people make comments like yours, theyre not even witty

The it.

I think isam's point is absolutely reasonable actually - for lots of people the priority is to ensure Brexit happens, but are largely indifferent about what form it takes. Moreover, they really do not want controversy about the form of Brexit to be the very thing that derails Brexit.

.

".

.

s important to me is that we leave.

Neither of the major political parties is trying to twist us out of leaving.

So although I really don't want to rehash those pre-Ref debates, given that EEA/EFTA would be fine, given that we were always sovereign while in the EU, what is it about the EU that you didn't actually like?

It is amazing that even though I am restraining myself beyond all known measure in my responses to you, you still keep digging and digging, it must have been going on for years now.

The debate that you stepped into, between ScottP and I, was based on his assertion that no party had a mandate for Brexit, so it might not happen.

As I have said, maybe two dozen times now, I am happy for the current govt, whoever it may be, we have had a couple since you started hammering on about it, to negotiate the deal however they like, hard/soft/EFTA/EEA whatever. These things aren't set in stone and can and will change over time. I would like to leave completely but I am not self important enough to think that matters or stupid enough to think that's how it works.

Why do you give a fuck what I think anyway?! I dont care what you do

Why respond then?

calum said:

https://twitter.com/UlsterElects/status/874242333444890624

Given Sinn Fein refused to powershare with the DUP even pre election who cares what Adams thinks he is playing a political game nothing more

Y0kel said:

The delay with the DUP is detail and poker. Both have no interest is seeing corbyn in and both know this but a considerable chicken and egg situation is present as both circle for who an as yet theoretical corbyn led govt would be worse for.

Much of what the DUP woukd like at local level is driven by the local Assembly being there to make use of it. Its in sinn fein boycott. The government will sign cheques but preferably not unless the Assembly is up and running. The starting point therefore fir the government is that no cash flows until then. Part of the surround is how to get the show at Stormont running again. This means telling Sinn Fein that their boycott is out of road.

The second hitch is detail. There are a number of down the list DUP requests plus one or two top list issues which have national implications that are still in discussions. Sone of the national level issues may well be changes the government is going to make anyway from previous manifesto ideas that tanked. The down the lists though are smaller but possibly sensitive.

Most big list issues are agreed.

With respect, how do you know all this?

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

stevef said:

A question which no one seems able to answer is: will the 2018 constituency boundaries be implemented given the new parliamentary arithmetic? Will it get through the Commons?. Because if it does get through, and an election can be put off until then, Labour may well find its curent hubris to be premature.

The Sunday Times said the boundary changes wouldn't pass nor would the reduction in 600 seats because they damage the DUP/Unionists in Northern Ireland.

What about 650 seats ?

The next review will:

- start again, with a projected finish date probably in 2020
- use up-to-date (the current) registration data
- have a target of 650 seats
- have more flexible criteria, either a return to the old +/- 10% or/and to the old discretion to breach the limits for good community reasons

All of this will produce an outcome where the majority of existing seats are merely tweaked, rather than trashed. The only significant changes will be to Wales, the IOW (split), and a few areas with outlier electoral change.

Current registration data will be much more favourable to Labour, surely.

The biggest single issue is the immediate impact of IER, and the extent to which you believe its first year removed genuine entries from the register, and not just outdated or illegitimate ones.

In terms of adjustment for population changes, London tends to gain (look at the size of East and West Ham for example), but the northern Labour cities tend to lose. Wales loses. The Home Counties tend to gain.

I doubt the impact is as huge as the Conservatives had previously estimated, but expect that they still stand to gain a few seats from a revised 650-seat review.

Peter_the_Punter said:

DearPB said:

Roger said:

In contrast to John McDonnell Keir Starmer is making Labour look like a serious government in waiting. He's pointed out the obvious which is that if you want a sensible deal with the EU you don't insult them and you keep your negotiating position as fluid as possible.

He's starting to sound like a real contender. A man for our times. None of the dogmatism and soundbites that turned off so many at the last election

But as of Thursday, he's not a contender for Labour's leadership because they are confirmed as a party of the far left.

There are no contenders now, and unlikely to be any for a while.

Exactly. Is Jeremy Corbyn's the least likely political career ever?

Meeks is a strange one, when it comes to Brexit he's irrational and rude, then he writes insightful thread headers such as this.

I thought May would resign as Cameron did, humiliated and sulking, she might just be made of sterner stuff.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alastair is absolutely right that Theresa May has a strong sense of duty. He is also absolutely right that, in the rush by commentators who a few weeks ago were praising her to the hilt to go to the opposite extreme, her good qualities are being forgotten. She was, after all, an excellent Home Secretary, as we were reminded only just over a week ago with the demonstration, alas in tragic in circumstances, of just how well prepared the police were for dealing with a a terrorist attack.

But, we are seeing the Peter Principle applying in spades. Even if we weren't, politics is an unforgiving game, and the fact is that she has screwed up catastrophically. Even that might not be terminal were it not for the fact that she didn't need to do anything at all. She has to go, the only question yet to be decided is when.

When do you think she'll be gone?

freetochoose said:

Meeks is a strange one, when it comes to Brexit he's irrational and rude, then he writes insightful thread headers such as this.

I thought May would resign as Cameron did, humiliated and sulking, she might just be made of sterner stuff.

Perhaps the problem is that you're the irrational one about Brexit. Just a thought.