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  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941

    At least now we have a chance of avoiding the worst of all possible Brexits - one dictated by the Daily Mail and Sun.

    I've no idea how anyone could possibly come up with that conclusion. The chaotic result has dramatically increased the risk of the worst of all possible Brexits. Our EU friends don't now even know whether the UK government is in a position to make any deal stick.

    My previous estimate was something like a 20% risk of a chaotic exit leading to substantial economic disruption. I'd say it's now 50%.
    The election has probably ruled out WTO crash out and that must surely be a good thing.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    GE 2017 by PR.Labour and satellites 340,Tory and satellites 294.A fantastic victory for Jeremy Corbyn and more evidence he has the democratic validity by way of mandate to be given the chance to put the Labour manifesto before parliament.LD and Tory remainers would prefer Mr Corbyn to Mrs May.

    https://www.indy100.com/article/uk-election-map-proportional-representation-system-2017-conservative-labour-7784956

    Pointless as it assumes people would vote the same way under PR as they do under FPTP.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:
    That's bollocks and utterly unbelievable.

    Three out of five bars for an AT&T signal?

    Get outta here.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Unlike Gordon Brown, Jim Callaghan, and Theresa May John Major won a GE.

    Theresa May won the 2017 general election, she just didn't win a majority.

    Don't go all Corbynista on us and say Corbyn/Labour won the 2017 general election.
    Theresa May didn't win the general election. If she had she wouldn't be clinging to the DUP for dear (political) life.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    At least now we have a chance of avoiding the worst of all possible Brexits - one dictated by the Daily Mail and Sun.

    I've no idea how anyone could possibly come up with that conclusion. The chaotic result has dramatically increased the risk of the worst of all possible Brexits. Our EU friends don't now even know whether the UK government is in a position to make any deal stick.

    My previous estimate was something like a 20% risk of a chaotic exit leading to substantial economic disruption. I'd say it's now 50%.
    The election has probably ruled out WTO crash out and that must surely be a good thing.
    No, it's made it much more likely.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    May didn't win then. She got the most seats, but no-one can argue that she succeeded and is certainly not victorious.

    The purpose in an election is to get into government. Accomplished.
    The purpose of an election is to implement your manifesto as enunciated in the Queen's Speech.

    Oopps
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    This is increasingly perverse. A minority government has the right to be tested in parliament. Never mind testing May's authority in a Queens Speech we won't even get that. You cannot delay the opening of parliament because you haven't yet cobbled together a deal. You can either get a QS through and form the government or you cant.

    May needs to be told tonight that she either put up or shut up - lead the government or don't, but stop trying to hide. It's a national embarrassment and the perversion is that her colleagues are all standing with her as she abjectly humiliates herself and her party.

    +1
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,767



    I've no idea how anyone could possibly come up with that conclusion. The chaotic result has dramatically increased the risk of the worst of all possible Brexits. Our EU friends don't now even know whether the UK government is in a position to make any deal stick.

    My previous estimate was something like a 20% risk of a chaotic exit leading to substantial economic disruption. I'd say it's now 50%.

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017

    I'm trying to work out what Ruth Davidson as PM would be like.

    I'm thinking a Unionist Cleggite who is fairly hawkish on defence.


    Portillo then....
    Doesn't he want to abolish Trident?

    Though he read history at Cambridge, which tells you everything about his awesomeness.

    I have to admit, Portillo looks more like a 44 year old than a 64 year old.
    He is my hero; handsome, intelligent and dapper.

    But if I look as old as he does now in 18 months time, I want to have had a fucking good time in the next year and a half
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288

    So they were never on course for a 100+ landslide.
    The polling people on BBCDP more or less said that the adjustments most of the pollsters were making for their 2015 mess-up were over-compensating and never gave a true picture.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Who is he?
    I knew a Mark Wharton once.
    Not the same person, although Mark was also vaguely pointless.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    The conservatives have every right to try to govern the UK .However if doing a deal with the DUP puts into jeopardy the fragile peace in Northern Ireland then I think they should try to do their honourable duty govern as a minority administration and if the DUP vote against them do be it.Have some decency the peace is worth more than any single PM or temporary administration.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635

    At least now we have a chance of avoiding the worst of all possible Brexits - one dictated by the Daily Mail and Sun.

    I've no idea how anyone could possibly come up with that conclusion. The chaotic result has dramatically increased the risk of the worst of all possible Brexits. Our EU friends don't now even know whether the UK government is in a position to make any deal stick.

    My previous estimate was something like a 20% risk of a chaotic exit leading to substantial economic disruption. I'd say it's now 50%.
    The election has probably ruled out WTO crash out and that must surely be a good thing.
    No, it's made it much more likely.
    If Labour were 10% ahead clear in the polls then one would have had to vote Labour in the previous election generally.

    As it was it was the Tories, I think your analysis is entirely correct.
    Almost a unique case, but the correct vote in the 2017 GE was to vote for the likely winner.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I see some Tories trying the "Labour hypocrites tried cutting a deal with the DUP too" spiel.

    Completely accurate, yet deeply missing the point. It didn't matter what Labour would have done, it's what the Tories are doing that matters for the optics.

    TSE's very strong anti-DUP deal was the kind of opinion piece I don't generally like as a PB header, but he very forcefully made the point about years of "detoxification" being reversed in days.

    Problem for the Tories is what the alternative is. That is also a problem for the country as a whole, mind you.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    At least now we have a chance of avoiding the worst of all possible Brexits - one dictated by the Daily Mail and Sun.

    I've no idea how anyone could possibly come up with that conclusion. The chaotic result has dramatically increased the risk of the worst of all possible Brexits. Our EU friends don't now even know whether the UK government is in a position to make any deal stick.

    My previous estimate was something like a 20% risk of a chaotic exit leading to substantial economic disruption. I'd say it's now 50%.
    The election has probably ruled out WTO crash out and that must surely be a good thing.
    No, it's made it much more likely.
    I agree with that.

    Nightmare scenario is that May manages to keep the government going for the rest of the year, but Brexit negotiations are slow, with no agreement on the divorce bill. May (or whoever is PM) cannot get the Brexiteers to agree to pay enough to satisfy the EU, and Corbyn not willing to rescue Conservative PM.

    New election in 2018, fails to produce a strong government. Paralysis in Westminster. Exasperation in Brussels. Time runs out.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited June 2017
    May is like the MD who was doing very well, primarily because his main competitor has a junk product. She thought that she was doing well was because she was as a good salesmen. She wasn't and isn't. The important point here is that you cannot teach sales skills to 60-year-olds.

    Good salesmen never forget the key issue: people like being sold to.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2017
    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. The EU27 won't know if she'll be there to conclude any deal, or be able to get it through parliament. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    isam said:

    I'm trying to work out what Ruth Davidson as PM would be like.

    I'm thinking a Unionist Cleggite who is fairly hawkish on defence.


    Portillo then....
    Doesn't he want to abolish Trident?

    Though he read history at Cambridge, which tells you everything about his awesomeness.

    I have to admit, Portillo looks more like a 44 year old than a 64 year old.
    He is my hero; handsome, intelligent and dapper.

    But if I look as old as he does now in 18 months time, I want to have had a fucking good time in the next year and a half
    I think Portillo is a slightly more subtle Tim Montgomerie.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,359

    Chris_A said:
    He has a very arresting pinned tweet.
    Is having your tweet pinned a chemsex underworld thing?
    And can you get arrested for it?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    GeoffM said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Who is he?
    I knew a Mark Wharton once.
    Not the same person, although Mark was also vaguely pointless.
    Oh right, I see now from a combination of his twitter feed and Richard Tyndall providing context.

    TGOHF is right. Attention seeking snowflake.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    JackW said:

    Andrew said:

    Jonathan said:


    May didn't win then. She got the most seats, but no-one can argue that she succeeded and is certainly not victorious.

    The purpose in an election is to get into government. Accomplished.
    The purpose of an election is to implement your manifesto as enunciated in the Queen's Speech.

    Oopps
    The PB Tories think Australia won this Test...

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2013/may/02/20-great-ashes-moments-cardiff
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    IanB2 said:

    So they were never on course for a 100+ landslide.
    The polling people on BBCDP more or less said that the adjustments most of the pollsters were making for their 2015 mess-up were over-compensating and never gave a true picture.
    The real polls.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    2018 A-Level Politics Question

    Which is the biggest fuck up?

    a) The 2016 EU Referendum
    b) The 2017 General Election

    Discuss.

    The GE 2017 hard to think of a bigger f up in history of a sitting PM with a majority calling a snap. Election and returning with a minority hung parliament.Has it ever happened before ?
    Heath in 1974?
    True I guess he only had a year to run anyways as he was elected in 70.
    Yes, that was the difference. But it is the nearest analogue.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    At least now we have a chance of avoiding the worst of all possible Brexits - one dictated by the Daily Mail and Sun.

    I've no idea how anyone could possibly come up with that conclusion. The chaotic result has dramatically increased the risk of the worst of all possible Brexits. Our EU friends don't now even know whether the UK government is in a position to make any deal stick.

    My previous estimate was something like a 20% risk of a chaotic exit leading to substantial economic disruption. I'd say it's now 50%.
    The election has probably ruled out WTO crash out and that must surely be a good thing.
    No, it's made it much more likely.
    I agree with that.

    Nightmare scenario is that May manages to keep the government going for the rest of the year, but Brexit negotiations are slow, with no agreement on the divorce bill. May (or whoever is PM) cannot get the Brexiteers to agree to pay enough to satisfy the EU, and Corbyn not willing to rescue Conservative PM.

    New election in 2018, fails to produce a strong government. Paralysis in Westminster. Exasperation in Brussels. Time runs out.
    Soundbite to the rescue "no deal is...."
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Who is he?
    I knew a Mark Wharton once.
    Not the same person, although Mark was also vaguely pointless.
    Oh right, I see now from a combination of his twitter feed and Richard Tyndall providing context.

    TGOHF is right. Attention seeking snowflake.
    It is an odd fact of modern life - that the views of someone no-one has heard of are instantaneously paraded around like some kind of missive from God (in whom we all don't believe)
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    Are they ? Evidence ?

    The DUP are not going to dictate a single comma of legislation on this topic that impacts anyone either inside or outside Ulster.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
    There's two openly gay Tory cabinet ministers for starters.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,767
    edited June 2017

    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
    Time will tell. On the basis of what followed, 2015 was possibly worse. Bet Dave wish Ed had done a bit better in 2015.

    On the wider point, if May had got her way I appreciate that you would have been satisfied. But she offered nothing beyond her ranks. All the rhetoric was for hard Brexit or no deal at all. That was the offer if you take her at her word. There was certainly no role for anyone outside the Tory party to shape the outcome.

    At least now there is a chance of something else and others will be involved. That is a potentially good thing.

    But on the main point, if you say May and the Tories have proven to be an unmitigated disaster for the country, it's hard to disagree.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    That's a fantastic piece.

    Really well written.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    @TSE - should we ban trade in all products because some idiots misuse them?

    The inland ivory trade ban was a stupid idea promoted by those who don't understand culture, history, or the antiques trade.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Chris_A said:
    He has a very arresting pinned tweet.
    That's because he's trying to flog his book. And no he's not the ex-MP for Stockton South.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Why did tories fail to take Perth and North Perthshire? is Pete Wishart particularly popular?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    So they were never on course for a 100+ landslide.
    The polling people on BBCDP more or less said that the adjustments most of the pollsters were making for their 2015 mess-up were over-compensating and never gave a true picture.
    The real polls.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election
    Even the local elections, while poor for Labour, were not indicating the complete wipeout that some commentators were suggesting.

    It was "only" an 11% lead (suggesting a majority of around 50-60 seats) with Labour notionally winning many of the seats which were supposed to be surefire Tory gains in the GE.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    GeoffM said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Who is he?
    I knew a Mark Wharton once.
    Not the same person, although Mark was also vaguely pointless.
    An ex-Tory member
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,359
    The SCons know they've hit the big time when even their dimmer mps are inspiring parody accounts.

    https://twitter.com/RossThomsonMP/status/874266381335900160
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
    Ah so we want to be governed by virtue signallers ?

    Dearie me.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762

    At least now we have a chance of avoiding the worst of all possible Brexits - one dictated by the Daily Mail and Sun.

    I've no idea how anyone could possibly come up with that conclusion. The chaotic result has dramatically increased the risk of the worst of all possible Brexits. Our EU friends don't now even know whether the UK government is in a position to make any deal stick.

    My previous estimate was something like a 20% risk of a chaotic exit leading to substantial economic disruption. I'd say it's now 50%.
    The election has probably ruled out WTO crash out and that must surely be a good thing.
    No, it's made it much more likely.
    I agree with that.

    Nightmare scenario is that May manages to keep the government going for the rest of the year, but Brexit negotiations are slow, with no agreement on the divorce bill. May (or whoever is PM) cannot get the Brexiteers to agree to pay enough to satisfy the EU, and Corbyn not willing to rescue Conservative PM.

    New election in 2018, fails to produce a strong government. Paralysis in Westminster. Exasperation in Brussels. Time runs out.
    Will our EU friends even bother with Theresa? Why waste all that time and effort hammering out deals when she could be gone in a trice, replaced by PM Corbyn/Farron/Farage/Boris with an entirely different agenda? And the meetings with her would be very awkward, like being in the presence of someone recently bereaved.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:
    He has a very arresting pinned tweet.
    That's because he's trying to flog his book. And no he's not the ex-MP for Stockton South.
    I did, for a moment, think that he was.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    2018 A-Level Politics Question

    Which is the biggest fuck up?

    a) The 2016 EU Referendum
    b) The 2017 General Election

    Discuss.

    The GE 2017 hard to think of a bigger f up in history of a sitting PM with a majority calling a snap. Election and returning with a minority hung parliament.Has it ever happened before ?
    Heath in 1974?
    True I guess he only had a year to run anyways as he was elected in 70.
    Yes, that was the difference. But it is the nearest analogue.
    True in legacy terms and history if May goes this year she might go down as the worst Pm at least since Ww2 Even Eden won a big majority .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972

    I'm trying to work out what Ruth Davidson as PM would be like.

    I'm thinking a Unionist Cleggite who is fairly hawkish on defence.


    Portillo then....
    Doesn't he want to abolish Trident?

    Though he read history at Cambridge, which tells you everything about his awesomeness.

    I have to admit, Portillo looks more like a 44 year old than a 64 year old.
    Though he is the colour of badly French polished teak.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Yorkcity said:

    To be honest, I'm feeling sorry for Theresa May now.

    This is probably a fatal sentiment for her. But I genuinely think her motives were good and she meant well.

    She is a lifelong loyal Tory, loves her party, and she will be devastated at what has happened to it.

    She chose to frame the election in the way that she did. She colluded with the right wing press to make it a patriots v saboteurs contest. She decided to paint the Europeans as the enemy and to accuse them of interfering in the electoral process. She chose to walk hand in hand with Trump. I can't feel sorry for her given that she essentially labelled people like me traitors. I don't think I have ever been happier at an election result. This beats 1997 by a distance. At least John Major was a decent man.

    That's a very unfair, and slightly nasty, post.

    I don't think she's even begun to label people who disagree with her as traitors, most of her parliamentary support and cabinet came from Remain. And her decency is absolutely beyond question.

    Go away and have a lie down.

    I think the last four days have gone to your head, you're not sure what to make of it, and despite the fact you failed to cast a ballot for anyone you want to celebrate regardless.

    Too right I want to celebrate. It's an absolutely fantastic outcome; all the better for being totally unexpected. She wanted to crush the saboteurs:
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
    Pathetic.
    Why is it ?

    Casino's a good bloke, but he is understandably feeling a bit raw right now. I am rubbing it in and I should not be, so it's my fault. But I have always thought May to be utterly useless and I am just so relieved she did not get her majority. It would have been truly calamitous. At least now we have a chance of avoiding the worst of all possible Brexits - one dictated by the Daily Mail and Sun.

    And to think this morning you were criticising May for being "obsessed" with the "right wing press". I think you owe me a new irony meter because you broke my old one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
    If you have a hung Parliament, you have to be prepared to cut deals with parties that disagree with you on some issues, in order get your business through. Jim Callaghan, and John Major cut deals with Unionists, Gordon Brown would have done, had the numbers made sense.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Cheer up, we might end up with PR, and then we'd regularly have governments held to ransom by extremist parties.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Do the tories actually have 318 seats really? That figure includes the speaker bercow who doesn't vote with them.

    Which means it's 327 with the DUP - already one down. One less by election defeat required.

    Do the deputy speakers vote or not?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    The SCons know they've hit the big time when even their dimmer mps are inspiring parody accounts.

    https://twitter.com/RossThomsonMP/status/874266381335900160

    Fake - " flute or drum" is the actual proposal !
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    2018 A-Level Politics Question

    Which is the biggest fuck up?

    a) The 2016 EU Referendum
    b) The 2017 General Election

    Discuss.

    The GE 2017 hard to think of a bigger f up in history of a sitting PM with a majority calling a snap. Election and returning with a minority hung parliament.Has it ever happened before ?
    Heath in 1974?
    True I guess he only had a year to run anyways as he was elected in 70.
    Yes, that was the difference. But it is the nearest analogue.
    True in legacy terms and history if May goes this year she might go down as the worst Pm at least since Ww2 Even Eden won a big majority .
    I think her, Brown, Eden and D-H can have a square dance in the poo at the bottom.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
    Ah so we want to be governed by virtue signallers ?

    Dearie me.
    If I were a Tory MP in a marginal seat, and I was looking at the age groups I most desperately needed to win back, discovering that my leader was going to taint my party's reputation by associating with the DUP would go down like a cold bucket of sick.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,767
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    2018 A-Level Politics Question

    Which is the biggest fuck up?

    a) The 2016 EU Referendum
    b) The 2017 General Election

    Discuss.

    The GE 2017 hard to think of a bigger f up in history of a sitting PM with a majority calling a snap. Election and returning with a minority hung parliament.Has it ever happened before ?
    Heath in 1974?
    True I guess he only had a year to run anyways as he was elected in 70.
    Yes, that was the difference. But it is the nearest analogue.
    True in legacy terms and history if May goes this year she might go down as the worst Pm at least since Ww2 Even Eden won a big majority .
    It's a toss-up between May, Cameron & Eden. May probably walks it for losing a completely unnecessary election. Although having your entire foreign policy collapse and having to go overnight is still a pretty horrible achievement.

    Either way both outcomes make losing a normal election look like a mild and a dignified exit.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711

    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. The EU27 won't know if she'll be there to conclude any deal, or be able to get it through parliament. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
    Well there IS a way out of this mess. But it would require putting the interests of the country ahead of the interests of the Conservative Party. Something they seem adverse to in recent times.

    If May were to go back to the Palace and tell Lizzie that the country needs a government that commands either a majority or a firm coalition and that the only way this might be achieved is to have another election, then there is a way out of the mess that May is responsible for.

    Who knows, if they got their act together and put forward a half decent campaign and adjusted their manifesto, the Tories might even come out of it with a majority. Failing that, at least we could be left with a Labour government that is not fettered by a minor Party form Northern Ireland.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    edited June 2017
    llef said:
    Discussed yesterday.

    Still no comment from the Tory leavers who assured me prior to June 23rd that Farage would have no government role nor a role in Brexit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,767

    Cheer up, we might end up with PR, and then we'd regularly have governments held to ransom by extremist parties.

    Makes little difference when you are relying on Peter Bone and Philip Davies.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Off Topic

    For any Wolfenstein fans out there, they showed off the new Wolfenstein at E3 last night, 8 min trailer on YouTube. The New Order was an excellent reboot of the series and this looks like more of the same.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    BudG said:

    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. The EU27 won't know if she'll be there to conclude any deal, or be able to get it through parliament. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
    Well there IS a way out of this mess. But it would require putting the interests of the country ahead of the interests of the Conservative Party. Something they seem adverse to in recent times.

    If May were to go back to the Palace and tell Lizzie that the country needs a government that commands either a majority or a firm coalition and that the only way this might be achieved is to have another election, then there is a way out of the mess that May is responsible for.

    Who knows, if they got their act together and put forward a half decent campaign and adjusted their manifesto, the Tories might even come out of it with a majority. Failing that, at least we could be left with a Labour government that is not fettered by a minor Party form Northern Ireland.
    HM is no longer empowered to do that. She'd have to seek dissolution in the commons, or lose a vote of no confidence and perhaps have Corbyn have a shot at being PM.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    At least now we have a chance of avoiding the worst of all possible Brexits - one dictated by the Daily Mail and Sun.

    I've no idea how anyone could possibly come up with that conclusion. The chaotic result has dramatically increased the risk of the worst of all possible Brexits. Our EU friends don't now even know whether the UK government is in a position to make any deal stick.

    My previous estimate was something like a 20% risk of a chaotic exit leading to substantial economic disruption. I'd say it's now 50%.
    The election has probably ruled out WTO crash out and that must surely be a good thing.
    No, it's made it much more likely.
    I agree. And it will have emboldened the EU27 negotiating team in their financial and other demands.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    llef said:
    I recall that being mentioned yesterday or on Saturday.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,767
    llef said:
    Wow! What a way to destroy the Tory party.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
    If you have a hung Parliament, you have to be prepared to cut deals with parties that disagree with you on some issues, in order get your business through. Jim Callaghan, and John Major cut deals with Unionists, Gordon Brown would have done, had the numbers made sense.
    I quite agree. May has landed herself in Catch 22. But the problem is saying "any politician would have done it" doesn't detoxify it (or even justify it) among the younger (30s/40s, not saying that there is much fruit to be had among the 20-somethings since historically the Tories have got by without them), socially liberal voters that the Tories absolutely desperately need to win over.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    When did AT&T buy bandwidth in the UK...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    edited June 2017

    Do the tories actually have 318 seats really? That figure includes the speaker bercow who doesn't vote with them.

    Which means it's 327 with the DUP - already one down. One less by election defeat required.

    Do the deputy speakers vote or not?

    Deputy speakers don't count.. so it has no impact.

    Also you are forgetting that SF are abstentionists.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    The DUP may not want to put Corbyn in power, but they will have to answer to their supporters for whatever deal they make, and the LD experience will make them wary of doing without extracting significant symbolic gains beyond pork barrel bridges etc. the LDs actually implemented most of their manifesto, but they had few significant individual achievements that mattered most to many LDs (tuition, electoral reform etc). That is why we are hearing their supporters arguing for march unbanning etc - you can bet there will be pressure on the party to try and get something like that agreed. The DUP are not the UUP, they are not allies and friends of the tories like May claimed.

    Pork barrels will not be enough
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    Are they ? Evidence ?

    The DUP are not going to dictate a single comma of legislation on this topic that impacts anyone either inside or outside Ulster.

    In direct legislative terms you are correct.

    However the signal of the Conservatives hugging the DUP close to its very vitals is important. The Tories made much of the Labour/Jezza links to SF. By your "friends and allies" shall you be known and so it is with The Conservatives and the DUP.
  • llefllef Posts: 301

    llef said:
    Discussed yesterday.

    Still no comment from the Tory leavers who assured me prior to June 23rd that Farage would have no government role nor role in Brexit.
    ok thanks.
    They'd have to stark raving mad, but i guess you never know...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. 83, was surprised by the lack of a Starfield announcement.

    And they need to make a new Elder Scrolls.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    The DUP may not want to put Corbyn in power, but they will have to answer to their supporters for whatever deal they make, and the LD experience will make them wary of doing without extracting significant symbolic gains beyond pork barrel bridges etc. the LDs actually implemented most of their manifesto, but they had few significant individual achievements that mattered most to many LDs (tuition, electoral reform etc). That is why we are hearing their supporters arguing for march unbanning etc - you can bet there will be pressure on the party to try and get something like that agreed. The DUP are not the UUP, they are not allies and friends of the tories like May claimed.

    Pork barrels will not be enough

    The analogy is not quite the same as the two parties don't compete for seats. The DUP are only worrying about SF.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
    If you have a hung Parliament, you have to be prepared to cut deals with parties that disagree with you on some issues, in order get your business through. Jim Callaghan, and John Major cut deals with Unionists, Gordon Brown would have done, had the numbers made sense.
    Exactly sometimes people seem to lose perspective about what's really important and that is business confidence already fragile will ebb away unless some modicum of stability returns. The last thing they want is the chance of a fresh GE brought about by a no confidence vote even if the likelihood that will actually happen is very low. Appearances do matter home and abroad.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2017
    Does anyone understand the DUP's Brexit position? They want a hard Brexit but no border controls, right? That's even more incoherent than the LibDem position.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Jonathan said:

    llef said:
    Wow! What a way to destroy the Tory party.
    I'd be very surprised if that were true.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just watched a video of Kwarteng giving an interview in C4, he's just so smooth and confident. It's the complete opposite of Theresa. No nervousness, he's clearly been well briefed and he is flexible enough to answer the questions being asked. He also says that we'd only leave the single market to stop free movement and he gets the point across that Labour have the same view, one of the only politicians on our side to make that point.

    He deserves a shot at the top job, we need to have a full leadership election and I hope he gets serious backing for it from some of the old guard who's time has clearly passed.

    I agree, I like him.
    Getting Kwarteng into a senior Ministerial role in short order would help enormously.

    And Johnny Mercer and Rory Stewart. Penny Mordant needs a leg up too. We need to get to know these new Scottish Tories. And Kevin Foster needs to be told to take all Tory MPs and candidates on a crash-course on how to win over your constituents.

    And get Gove to say that under no circumstances will the Govt. EVER give time for a Bill on fox-hunting. And if there is a Private Members Bill introduced, then any member of the Cabinet who wants to vote in favour can hand in their resignation.

    Shit like that. They have got time to fix things. They need to use it WISELY.
    And the ivory ban, I hear that came up a lot, coupled with fox hunting it made the Tories look like the nasty party.
    Misrepresentation (not by you) of course. It was allowing self-certification by antique dealers that ivory pieces were pre-1947 and hence could be sold
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    Does anyone understand the DUP's Brexit position? They want a hard Brexit but no border, right? That's even more incoherent than the LibDem position.

    I thought that was the UK government position :D
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    The Farage thing was discussed yesterday, though some of us concluded that Tory MPs would be unlikely to accept that.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Jonathan said:

    llef said:
    Wow! What a way to destroy the Tory party.
    Can Nigel be entirely trusted? Who's to say he won't deliberately negotiate a stinker of a deal just so the Tories suffer? At one time I'd have reckoned on him doing the decent thing, but now I'm not so sure. We know he has bigger fish to fry, such as importing Trumpism into Britain, so Brexit might just be a means to an end.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    2018 A-Level Politics Question

    Which is the biggest fuck up?

    a) The 2016 EU Referendum
    b) The 2017 General Election

    Discuss.

    The GE 2017 hard to think of a bigger f up in history of a sitting PM with a majority calling a snap. Election and returning with a minority hung parliament.Has it ever happened before ?
    Heath in 1974?
    True I guess he only had a year to run anyways as he was elected in 70.
    Yes, that was the difference. But it is the nearest analogue.
    True in legacy terms and history if May goes this year she might go down as the worst Pm at least since Ww2 Even Eden won a big majority .
    It's a toss-up between May, Cameron & Eden. May probably walks it for losing a completely unnecessary election. Although having your entire foreign policy collapse and having to go overnight is still a pretty horrible achievement.

    Either way both outcomes make losing a normal election look like a mild and a dignified exit.
    Eden led the UK to humiliation, to give up our role as an independent world power, and kicked the ball off for us joining the EEC/EC in the first place.

    Eden.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Cheer up, we might end up with PR, and then we'd regularly have governments held to ransom by extremist parties.

    I've never regarded the Conservatives as an extremist party .... :sunglasses:
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    2018 A-Level Politics Question

    Which is the biggest fuck up?

    a) The 2016 EU Referendum
    b) The 2017 General Election

    Discuss.

    The GE 2017 hard to think of a bigger f up in history of a sitting PM with a majority calling a snap. Election and returning with a minority hung parliament.Has it ever happened before ?
    Heath in 1974?
    True I guess he only had a year to run anyways as he was elected in 70.
    Yes, that was the difference. But it is the nearest analogue.
    True in legacy terms and history if May goes this year she might go down as the worst Pm at least since Ww2 Even Eden won a big majority .
    It's a toss-up between May, Cameron & Eden. May probably walks it for losing a completely unnecessary election. Although having your entire foreign policy collapse and having to go overnight is still a pretty horrible achievement.

    Either way both outcomes make losing a normal election look like a mild and a dignified exit.
    Eden led the UK to humiliation, to give up our role as an independent world power, and kicked the ball off for us joining the EEC/EC in the first place.

    Eden.
    You could argue the similarity between May and Eden is neither noticed the world had changed.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    BudG said:

    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. The EU27 won't know if she'll be there to conclude any deal, or be able to get it through parliament. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
    Well there IS a way out of this mess. But it would require putting the interests of the country ahead of the interests of the Conservative Party. Something they seem adverse to in recent times.

    If May were to go back to the Palace and tell Lizzie that the country needs a government that commands either a majority or a firm coalition and that the only way this might be achieved is to have another election, then there is a way out of the mess that May is responsible for.

    Who knows, if they got their act together and put forward a half decent campaign and adjusted their manifesto, the Tories might even come out of it with a majority. Failing that, at least we could be left with a Labour government that is not fettered by a minor Party form Northern Ireland.
    :+1::+1::+1:

    And for the avoidance of doubt, I am neither a Labour or Corbyn supporter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited June 2017

    The DUP may not want to put Corbyn in power, but they will have to answer to their supporters for whatever deal they make, and the LD experience will make them wary of doing without extracting significant symbolic gains beyond pork barrel bridges etc. the LDs actually implemented most of their manifesto, but they had few significant individual achievements that mattered most to many LDs (tuition, electoral reform etc). That is why we are hearing their supporters arguing for march unbanning etc - you can bet there will be pressure on the party to try and get something like that agreed. The DUP are not the UUP, they are not allies and friends of the tories like May claimed.

    Pork barrels will not be enough

    DUP manifesto:

    DUP wants to see a working Assembly and Executive as the best form of government for all our people.
    We will judge any deal against five core tests set out in the manifesto.
    We support the continued increases in the National Living Wage.
    We will support proposals to further increase the personal tax allowance.
    We support the maintenance of the pensions triple lock.
    The DUP will resist any assault on important universal benefits.
    We want to build a globally competitive economy.
    We support the delivery of an ambitious new Industrial Strategy
    We are committed to improving public services.
    We support the continuation of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent.
    The DUP will resist attempts to rewrite the past.
    The DUP will work to get the best deal for Northern Ireland as the UK leaves the European Union.
    We are committed to see the development of a real respect agenda
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    RobD said:

    BudG said:

    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. The EU27 won't know if she'll be there to conclude any deal, or be able to get it through parliament. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
    Well there IS a way out of this mess. But it would require putting the interests of the country ahead of the interests of the Conservative Party. Something they seem adverse to in recent times.

    If May were to go back to the Palace and tell Lizzie that the country needs a government that commands either a majority or a firm coalition and that the only way this might be achieved is to have another election, then there is a way out of the mess that May is responsible for.

    Who knows, if they got their act together and put forward a half decent campaign and adjusted their manifesto, the Tories might even come out of it with a majority. Failing that, at least we could be left with a Labour government that is not fettered by a minor Party form Northern Ireland.
    HM is no longer empowered to do that. She'd have to seek dissolution in the commons, or lose a vote of no confidence and perhaps have Corbyn have a shot at being PM.
    Surely if she told HM that she could not get a QS accepted, then Queenie would not insist on making one.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    Do the tories actually have 318 seats really? That figure includes the speaker bercow who doesn't vote with them.

    Which means it's 327 with the DUP - already one down. One less by election defeat required.

    Do the deputy speakers vote or not?

    Effectively 318. In a tie The Speaker follows certain accepted rules.

    He will vote against amending a bill.
    He will vote against a final passing of a bill
    He will vote against a motion of No Confidence.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885

    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    2018 A-Level Politics Question

    Which is the biggest fuck up?

    a) The 2016 EU Referendum
    b) The 2017 General Election

    Discuss.

    The GE 2017 hard to think of a bigger f up in history of a sitting PM with a majority calling a snap. Election and returning with a minority hung parliament.Has it ever happened before ?
    Heath in 1974?
    True I guess he only had a year to run anyways as he was elected in 70.
    Yes, that was the difference. But it is the nearest analogue.
    True in legacy terms and history if May goes this year she might go down as the worst Pm at least since Ww2 Even Eden won a big majority .
    It's a toss-up between May, Cameron & Eden. May probably walks it for losing a completely unnecessary election. Although having your entire foreign policy collapse and having to go overnight is still a pretty horrible achievement.

    Either way both outcomes make losing a normal election look like a mild and a dignified exit.
    Eden led the UK to humiliation, to give up our role as an independent world power, and kicked the ball off for us joining the EEC/EC in the first place.

    Eden.
    Eden encouraged Prescott into politics.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Pulpstar said:

    The DUP may not want to put Corbyn in power, but they will have to answer to their supporters for whatever deal they make, and the LD experience will make them wary of doing without extracting significant symbolic gains beyond pork barrel bridges etc. the LDs actually implemented most of their manifesto, but they had few significant individual achievements that mattered most to many LDs (tuition, electoral reform etc). That is why we are hearing their supporters arguing for march unbanning etc - you can bet there will be pressure on the party to try and get something like that agreed. The DUP are not the UUP, they are not allies and friends of the tories like May claimed.

    Pork barrels will not be enough

    DUP manifesto:

    DUP wants to see a working Assembly and Executive as the best form of government for all our people.
    We will judge any deal against five core tests set out in the manifesto.
    We support the continued increases in the National Living Wage.
    We will support proposals to further increase the personal tax allowance.
    We support the maintenance of the pensions triple lock.
    The DUP will resist any assault on important universal benefits.
    We want to build a globally competitive economy.
    We support the delivery of an ambitious new Industrial Strategy
    We are committed to improving public services.
    We support the continuation of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent.
    The DUP will resist attempts to rewrite the past.
    The DUP will work to get the best deal for Northern Ireland as the UK leaves the European Union.
    We are committed to see the development of a real respect agenda
    I bet they are wishing they had been more bold. :p
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941

    BudG said:

    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. The EU27 won't know if she'll be there to conclude any deal, or be able to get it through parliament. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
    Well there IS a way out of this mess. But it would require putting the interests of the country ahead of the interests of the Conservative Party. Something they seem adverse to in recent times.

    If May were to go back to the Palace and tell Lizzie that the country needs a government that commands either a majority or a firm coalition and that the only way this might be achieved is to have another election, then there is a way out of the mess that May is responsible for.

    Who knows, if they got their act together and put forward a half decent campaign and adjusted their manifesto, the Tories might even come out of it with a majority. Failing that, at least we could be left with a Labour government that is not fettered by a minor Party form Northern Ireland.
    :+1::+1::+1:

    And for the avoidance of doubt, I am neither a Labour or Corbyn supporter.
    There's no guarantee that the result would be significantly different, it might work if May resigned and the Tories were led by someone different, maybe Hammond?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The DUP may not want to put Corbyn in power, but they will have to answer to their supporters for whatever deal they make, and the LD experience will make them wary of doing without extracting significant symbolic gains beyond pork barrel bridges etc. the LDs actually implemented most of their manifesto, but they had few significant individual achievements that mattered most to many LDs (tuition, electoral reform etc). That is why we are hearing their supporters arguing for march unbanning etc - you can bet there will be pressure on the party to try and get something like that agreed. The DUP are not the UUP, they are not allies and friends of the tories like May claimed.

    Pork barrels will not be enough

    DUP manifesto:

    DUP wants to see a working Assembly and Executive as the best form of government for all our people.
    We will judge any deal against five core tests set out in the manifesto.
    We support the continued increases in the National Living Wage.
    We will support proposals to further increase the personal tax allowance.
    We support the maintenance of the pensions triple lock.
    The DUP will resist any assault on important universal benefits.
    We want to build a globally competitive economy.
    We support the delivery of an ambitious new Industrial Strategy
    We are committed to improving public services.
    We support the continuation of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent.
    The DUP will resist attempts to rewrite the past.
    The DUP will work to get the best deal for Northern Ireland as the UK leaves the European Union.
    We are committed to see the development of a real respect agenda
    I bet they are wishing they had been more bold. :p
    Noone votes DUP for the manifesto :p
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,767

    Jonathan said:

    llef said:
    Wow! What a way to destroy the Tory party.
    I'd be very surprised if that were true.
    Hey CR. Just a quick note to say 'hello' and that i hope that you're recovering from what must have been the most almighty shock / kick in the unmentionables. It's like 92 and 15 with knobs on.

    As ever you worked your arse off for May. Hard working members like you, Richard and JohnO (amongst others) often bear the brunt of forces beyond their control.

    I appreciated your reports from Southampton and hope you get to influence the shape of the Tory party that emerges from the ashes of this defeat.

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
    If you have a hung Parliament, you have to be prepared to cut deals with parties that disagree with you on some issues, in order get your business through. Jim Callaghan, and John Major cut deals with Unionists, Gordon Brown would have done, had the numbers made sense.
    I quite agree. May has landed herself in Catch 22. But the problem is saying "any politician would have done it" doesn't detoxify it (or even justify it) among the younger (30s/40s, not saying that there is much fruit to be had among the 20-somethings since historically the Tories have got by without them), socially liberal voters that the Tories absolutely desperately need to win over.
    Yes I think since NI switched over from SDLP-UUP to SF-DUP, deals with NI parties should've been taken right off the table. It's naive to think that because these parties are able to function as apparently normal parties in the NI setting, they are just like GB parties. Oh no.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    BudG said:

    RobD said:

    BudG said:

    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. The EU27 won't know if she'll be there to conclude any deal, or be able to get it through parliament. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
    Well there IS a way out of this mess. But it would require putting the interests of the country ahead of the interests of the Conservative Party. Something they seem adverse to in recent times.

    If May were to go back to the Palace and tell Lizzie that the country needs a government that commands either a majority or a firm coalition and that the only way this might be achieved is to have another election, then there is a way out of the mess that May is responsible for.

    Who knows, if they got their act together and put forward a half decent campaign and adjusted their manifesto, the Tories might even come out of it with a majority. Failing that, at least we could be left with a Labour government that is not fettered by a minor Party form Northern Ireland.
    HM is no longer empowered to do that. She'd have to seek dissolution in the commons, or lose a vote of no confidence and perhaps have Corbyn have a shot at being PM.
    Surely if she told HM that she could not get a QS accepted, then Queenie would not insist on making one.
    The whole point of the QS in these situations is to test confidence.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941

    The Farage thing was discussed yesterday, though some of us concluded that Tory MPs would be unlikely to accept that.

    The electorate wouldn't accept it. It would all of a sudden make Corbyn look much better.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    Are they ? Evidence ?

    The DUP are not going to dictate a single comma of legislation on this topic that impacts anyone either inside or outside Ulster.

    In direct legislative terms you are correct.

    However the signal of the Conservatives hugging the DUP close to its very vitals is important. The Tories made much of the Labour/Jezza links to SF. By your "friends and allies" shall you be known and so it is with The Conservatives and the DUP.
    There is a serious Scottish/NotScottish split in the view of the acceptability of a DUP deal
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Mortimer said:

    @TSE - should we ban trade in all products because some idiots misuse them?

    The inland ivory trade ban was a stupid idea promoted by those who don't understand culture, history, or the antiques trade.

    This is a very reasonable point. But the problem is few people see into this world, and so the idea of anything made of ivory - even a hundred years ago - has passed beyond the realm of social acceptability for large parts of the population.

    Similar for fox-hunting - I think there's a perfectly reasonable case to be made for fox-hunting, particularly on liberal grounds. I'm a vegetarian with animal welfare views similar to Nick Palmer, so on balance probably wouldn't buy the argument, but I can see it is there. If you're from somewhere rural or have a history with hunting, don't think of foxes as cute and fluffy, are aware that death stalks the countryside... it is all much more palatable, somehow. But it has always been a minority pursuit, and people whose worldview has never encompassed it, it looks increasingly out of date and ethically unacceptable. Public perceptions like that are very hard to shift. A party that goes anywhere near reopening the fox-hunting issue is making an electoral clanger. Not a fair hearing for the issue, perhaps, but that's the way it is.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mortimer said:

    @TSE - should we ban trade in all products because some idiots misuse them?

    The inland ivory trade ban was a stupid idea promoted by those who don't understand culture, history, or the antiques trade.

    I doubt that gem will make it into the next Conservative manifesto, although given the clusterf*ck of last Thursday I would't be surprised if it had simply been lost down the back of 10 Downing Street sofa along with 1000% tax on zimmer frames and compulsory fgm for teenage girls.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    llef said:
    Wow! What a way to destroy the Tory party.
    I'd be very surprised if that were true.
    Hey CR. Just a quick note to say 'hello' and that i hope that you're recovering from what must have been the most almighty shock / kick in the unmentionables. It's like 92 and 15 with knobs on.

    As ever you worked your arse off for May. Hard working members like you, Richard and JohnO (amongst others) often bear the brunt of forces beyond their control.

    I appreciated your reports from Southampton and hope you get to influence the shape of the Tory party that emerges from the ashes of this defeat.

    There is one silver lining... 43% is a pretty solid base to build upon.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:
    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    Are they ? Evidence ?

    The DUP are not going to dictate a single comma of legislation on this topic that impacts anyone either inside or outside Ulster.

    Do you think that under the same circumstances the Conservatives should or would do the same deal with the BNP if they had the seats? For many people this is the equivalent.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Do the tories actually have 318 seats really? That figure includes the speaker bercow who doesn't vote with them.

    Which means it's 327 with the DUP - already one down. One less by election defeat required.

    Do the deputy speakers vote or not?

    Effectively 318. In a tie The Speaker follows certain accepted rules.

    He will vote against amending a bill.
    He will vote against a final passing of a bill
    He will vote against a motion of No Confidence.
    Basically he always votes for the status quo as there is no majority for change
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    BudG said:

    Jonathan said:

    The blank cheque that May sought for Brexit was not a good thing. She now has to look beyond the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party.

    She now has no power to make concessions to get a deal. She can be brought down on multiple fronts, and is beholden to all sorts of vested interests. She can't ignore the narrow interests of one part of the Tory party, and she can't ignore the even narrower interests of the DUP. The EU27 won't know if she'll be there to conclude any deal, or be able to get it through parliament. And there's no way out of this mess.

    It's an unmitigated disaster for the country. There's no getting away from this. It's likely to turn out to be the most catastrophic election result of modern times.
    Well there IS a way out of this mess. But it would require putting the interests of the country ahead of the interests of the Conservative Party. Something they seem adverse to in recent times.

    If May were to go back to the Palace and tell Lizzie that the country needs a government that commands either a majority or a firm coalition and that the only way this might be achieved is to have another election, then there is a way out of the mess that May is responsible for.

    Who knows, if they got their act together and put forward a half decent campaign and adjusted their manifesto, the Tories might even come out of it with a majority. Failing that, at least we could be left with a Labour government that is not fettered by a minor Party form Northern Ireland.
    :+1::+1::+1:

    And for the avoidance of doubt, I am neither a Labour or Corbyn supporter.
    There's no guarantee that the result would be significantly different, it might work if May resigned and the Tories were led by someone different, maybe Hammond?
    It is one of these situations when, if things are not working, then why not try something else? It may not work either but what we have now is not looking good.

    If changing to Hammond would work then I would say "Do it" but it does not solve the issue of being in a minority govt.

    It would not surprise me if we had three elections in quick succession: the one we just had, the next one putting Corbyn in as a minority govt and then another one to put a govt in with a proper majority.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    Dadge said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris_A said:

    And so it begins twitter.com/jameswharton/status/874248105763516419

    Attention seeking snowflake.
    Hardly. May's plans are a direct attack on the LGBT community within the Tory party. We all used to laugh at Tim and his Latvian homophobe attacks. Suddenly the homophobes are a lot closer to home.
    I would be very surprised if there were any changes to those pieces of legislation.
    How could the LGBT rights legislation change, even if the DUP demanded it (which they won't)? There are Tory backbenchers aplenty who wouldn't let it pass. Heck, a good portion of the cabinet would resign first.

    The point isn't whether the DUP will use the Tories as their vassals to impose fundamentalist Protestantism on British rights laws. It's contamination caused by who you publicly get into bed with.
    If you have a hung Parliament, you have to be prepared to cut deals with parties that disagree with you on some issues, in order get your business through. Jim Callaghan, and John Major cut deals with Unionists, Gordon Brown would have done, had the numbers made sense.
    I quite agree. May has landed herself in Catch 22. But the problem is saying "any politician would have done it" doesn't detoxify it (or even justify it) among the younger (30s/40s, not saying that there is much fruit to be had among the 20-somethings since historically the Tories have got by without them), socially liberal voters that the Tories absolutely desperately need to win over.
    Yes I think since NI switched over from SDLP-UUP to SF-DUP, deals with NI parties should've been taken right off the table. It's naive to think that because these parties are able to function as apparently normal parties in the NI setting, they are just like GB parties. Oh no.
    So long as Northern Ireland sends MPs to Westminster, it's MPs are entitled to play their part in the government of the UK.
This discussion has been closed.