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Tom Newton Dunn: Queen's Speech could be delayed despite already in HM's diary for 19th. No10: "There will be an update from the Leader of the House shortly"

paulyork64 said:

TOPPING said:

AlastairMeeks said:

This might explain the keenness for 2018:

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/874212081960194050

I don't see it. Either Theresa May goes quite quickly or she has time to rebuild her position. She won't be easily ousted in a year's time once the new modus vivendi has been established.

Hold on until 2022, get a majority, ditch her. That would be the ideal. How achievable goodness knows.

I think the Blues would love to hold on until 2022. but I think the chances of them letting May be the one to lead them into that election is close to 0. so I think the latest she would be replaced is 2020.

Can someone explain the situation with boundary changes please? Will legislation automatically come into place in 2018 or will there be a vote. If a vote what odds do people think of changes being agreed with current make-up of parliament?

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/874213719668142081

Mrs May will find her room for manoeuvre severely curtailed.....if it works, we'll see a return of Cabinet government, which would be a good thing - hopefully the prospect of a Labour Corbyn landslide in any immediate GE will concentrate minds in the Cabinet. I suspect Mr Green will be happy to tell Theresa when 'enough's enough', to borrow a phrase.....

Sums it up entirely. The Tories have to be united (in public) as never before. Any squabbles are simply creating an opportunity for Corbyn. They have to consider what they'd prefer - Corbyn as PM or not. I'd prefer the not. With a rather baffling tendency on the part of the general public to vote for policies that to Tory minds are complete lunacy the risks of any dissent simply aren't worth taking. Even Soubry needs to bite her tongue.

Any change of leadership should be considered only when the government is well established - say in three years time. That should give plenty of time for Labour to do a whole host of daft things.

Chipping Barnett was a fairly amazing result for Labour. It's worth noting that Open Britain's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th target scalps were all taken, with number 6 only just missed:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-mps-remain-campaigners-hit-10290367

Re best and worst results, for the Tories I'd say Gordon was a better result than Banff but perhaps the seat that most strikingly shows their detoxification and progress in Scotland, despite just missing out by a few votes is Lanarkshire and Hamilton East and share increases in nearby seats like East Kilbride, Leshmagow etc.
In terms of vast overperfoamce in England compared to the overall, Sunderland Central, Ashfield etc were very strong results for them, failing to win Barrow and losing Plymouth were awful results as was the collapse of some of the ultra marginals to safe labour seats. Birmingham Edgbaston without having to face Gisela Stuart was a truly dire result.

Sean_F said:

calum said:

Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/874206915215097858

Not for the first time, Jon Snow is factually incorrect. One Orange Lodge has demanded the unbanning of its parade, not the DUP.

Snow is shockingly decrepit, he makes Dimbleby look sprightly.

?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/874218586155479040

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bobajob_PB said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Smart point from Tim Harford:

https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/874201625468039169

Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.

Can you point me to this extreme hubris you are witnessing?

A refusal to accept that Labour lost the election. Labour did much better than expected. This miserable government and its leader were humiliated. But Labour came second in votes, vote share and seats. Too many are getting ahead of themselves. Hopefully, it is only the initial, natural reaction to something that no-one imagined might happen.

When you think you are about to be killed off politically forever,then to find out the next morning not only that you have survived but are only 1 goal down and the home leg to come in your European fixture no wonder you are over the moon.

I completely agree. But then you have to get back into training, prepare for the second leg and work out how you are going to score the two goals you need to win (if you don't concede!)

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/874213411936194560

It's interesting because I've seen media reports suggesting some of the Cabinet appointments show May is softening her stance on Brexit yet I've also seen other reports saying bringing Gove back is to try and shore up May's hard Brexit position.

Basically the media is as clueless as ever...

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

Good.

My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.

llef said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Best & Worst results for each party ?

Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East

Worst LD result is surely Fife NE!

Losing Ceredigion? No Liberal seat in Wales for over 100 years?

I never thought I'd say this but the party I feel most confident about making electoral progress at the next GE is the LibDems. They had a poor campaign and a poor leader. Lost 50% of their voters from 2015 (if I read that Ashcroft post-GE poll correctly) but still got 50% more seats and lost under 10% votes in total.

Next time, I expect a better leader, better campaign and a much more effective scrutiny of what Labour are offering. instead of fighting 20 by-elections and winning 12 on an 8% share, I can see them winning 20 from 30 on a 12% share.

Small steps but they are the only party that I think will definitely get more seats next time.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

Good.

My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.

That's a great idea.

Mr. 64, not sure Farron's going anyway, is he?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

Good.

My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.

Take your one star media performer and turn her into the lightning rod for all the disaffection heading your way? That reeks of desperation.

nigel4england said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.

Erm, didn't Black Wednesday turn out to be rather good for the Tories.

It certainly was for the economy as we pulled out of the ERM.

Better for the economy than for the Tories. (Although, as with all these things, sorting out cause and effect is difficult. The period from 1992 to 2000 was a period of rapid economic growth across the developed world. And that can't all be due to White Wednesday.)

The other major problem with a DUP alliance aside from their appalling views on social matters is Arlene Foster. However they sell it, a woman who is not in parliament and nobody voted for holds balance of power. To a lesser extent as she's in the same party, Ruth's influence might become resented.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

Good.

My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.

I don't agree with her on some matters - the EU being the main one of course - but I do think she has proven herself a star when dealing with the undoubtedly charismatic Sturgeon in an environment where there has been long term widespread hostility to the Tories. The results speak for themselves.

On that note, I'm tempted by Jo Swinson at 3.5 to be next Lib Dem leader.

I think Cable's past it, and whilst I rate Lamb, he lost last time.

Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/stevenperkins/status/874176905196556288

Arlene Foster looks like Ramsay Bolton from GoT.

On the boundaries it looks to my inexpert eyes as though Labour may have been successful in registering new electors in the cities.

Streatham, turnout 55,795, 70.9%, electorate 78,695
North East Hampshire, turnout 57,627, 76.3%, electorate 75,527

So perhaps new boundaries on the current electoral roll wouldn't necessarily result in a benefit to the Tories.

If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?

The only way she survives this is getting cross party Brexit and running a zombie government until we are out.

AlastairMeeks said:

The Queen's Speech may be postponed, it's being reported.

That sounds to me as though TMay could be becoming TMaynot fairly shortly.

Uh oh. That really doesn't sound good.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 64, not sure Farron's going anyway, is he?

No I'm not sure either. but I think they'll still have a better leader next time even if it's still him.

GIN1138 said:

If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?

If she's doing it without her majesty's approval, HMQ may well send for him. You don't just tell the Queen she's not turning up on Monday.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

Good.

My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.

The Labour social media operation did not really exist. It was totally ad hoc. That is what made it so powerful. The Tories are much better advised to find some young folk who can get the ball rolling and leave them to it.

Mr Eagles' mate is having a bad GE. Schadenfreude may be enjoyable, but it marks him out as a bad loser. Yes, she sacked you, but don't behave like a teenager. As well as having a face that needs a good smack, Osbourne of the fifth remove isn't a good look. (What is the fifth remove anyway).

If he needs another job, I've got a wall that needs papering.

BTW, if Corbyn becomes PM, I will accept the result. Even if he loses some support three months later, I won't be demanding a new election, or supporting a legal challenge against him because I didn't like the result.

Another factor that helped him is the Trump/ Brexit feeling that the Establishment only allow us a narrow range of choices. Mainstream he is not, it's just a pity that he's barmy.

Oops! There's me virtue-signalling again. I'll do a hundred lines if it doesn't breach my human rights.

Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Best & Worst results for each party ?

Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East

Worst LD result is surely Fife NE!

Worst result has to be one that lost to the Tories and gave them an extra seat so it has to be Richmond Park or St Ives.

I'd say Richmond Park because it gave Zac a seat and it was an unnecessary loss. The Labour vote went up from 1,500 in the by election to 5,773 last Thursday. Just 1% of them voting tactically would have reduced the Tory seats by a critical one. I hope Labour voters have learned a lesson.

Extract from Sarah Olney's statement:

I wish Mr Goldsmith well in his resumed role as our MP, but I know I am not the only local resident who feels some disquiet at the overall result and its implications for the country. Many voters will have backed Mr Goldsmith because of the promise of "strong and stable leadership in the national interest" and because Mrs May was the most credible person to lead Britain into the Brexit negotiations. As a result of this unnecessary election, the country is now in disarray, and our hand in the fast-approaching negotiations has been weakened. Voters are entitled to feel cheated.

The proposed partnership with the DUP will also cause some concern . I hope that the partnership will not include any concessions on gay rights, action on climate change or the right to access abortions. But the real concern is for the Good Friday Agreement, under which the British Government is supposed to remain neutral. The collapse of the power-sharing agreement earlier this year was a setback for the province, especially in the light of the threat that Brexit represents to the 'soft' border, and a Government breach of the Agreement will further undermine efforts to restore stability to Northern Ireland.

But my greatest concern is for what the election result means for local people. Mr Goldsmith now has a very slim majority, in a Parliament that is extremely vulnerable to being dissolved. Will Mr Goldsmith stand up for local people, against the Government, as he promised? When the National Policy Statement on aviation comes before the Commons later this year, can Mr Goldsmith risk voting against the Government, knowing that any failure to get legislation passed might trigger a new General Election? Will he challenge them to produce the extra funding that our schools and hospitals need? Time will tell, and Mr Goldsmith can be sure that the Liberal Democrats will be watching closely.

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.

Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?

Presumably because we have 5 times the population of the existing EFTA countries and the assumption is that we could walk all over them.

The court is the court and is independent. The only way we walk all over it is to get a majority of the judges sitting on the bench. And that would require other countries to agree. And the judges would still be largely interpreting law made in Europe, not in the UK.

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.

Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?

Presumably because we have 5 times the population of the existing EFTA countries and the assumption is that we could walk all over them.

No it is because the remit of the EFTA court is strictly limited and cannot be changed as it is bound by treaty. The same does not apply to the ECJ.

Gogol's The Gove-rnment Inspector

SouthamObserver said:

The Labour social media operation did not really exist. It was totally ad hoc. That is what made it so powerful. The Tories are much better advised to find some young folk who can get the ball rolling and leave them to it.

As far as I can tell, the official Labour social-media operation wasn't anything special, but it does sound as though Momentum were working very effectively in the background. No doubt this will be the subject of much study over the next few months.

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.

Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?

ECJ rulings are not bound by case law. They are bound by interpretation of the treaties.

daodao said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.

Well put. The UK is now a wounded animal much less able to defend itself against the EU wolves. The form of Brexit will be decided in Berlin and presented a single "take it or leave it" option in Brussels.

You're both assuming that the EU want to punish us for leaving. Isn't it more likely that they will want to get a deal which is good enough for both sides whilst not encouraging others to also leave.
I don't think that they would cut off their nose to spite their face.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

May too short here at 1.14 I think

Cover Corbyn.

Mrs C, when I was a schoolboy a friend of mine and I used to regularly pin a photo of a celebrity to a dartboard and get points for hitting various parts.

GIN1138 said:

Slackbladder said:

GIN1138 said:

If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?

I guess so... although that seems uplikely to happen to..

New elections anyone?

Yep. She can send for Jezza but he clearly doesn't have the numbers to get a QS through either, so then what happens?

New elections the only possibility.

We could be in a new election campaign by the end of June!

Can the Opposition force a vote on No Confidence? They should do it before DUP deal is sewn up if they want a new GE.

Must be a fun conversation with the palace..

"One does not appreciate having to delay One's speech, Prime Minster..."

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The Queen's Speech may be postponed, it's being reported.

That sounds to me as though TMay could be becoming TMaynot fairly shortly.

Uh oh. That really doesn't sound good.

At least the posh boys could get a Queen's speech through Parliament.

The last three months has not been a very good advert for the idea of Grammar schools.

Given confidence is at a very low ebb, if they have to delay Queen's Speech it's because something is seriously wrong. It must be a last resort.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.

Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

So changing your tune and admitting you were wrong - good, that is a start at least.

Supranational court B (the EFTA court) is strictly limited in the areas over which in can pass judgement (the specific areas of the Single Market covered by the EEEA agreement) and it cannot expand its own scope or extent. In that way it is like many other international courts and adjudicators which we are party to. I have no problem with that.

The ECJ has a massively wider remit covering almost every aspect of life within the EU. It can and does expand its scope and influence as it sees fit and has a role which is not simply to adjudicate but to increase the power and influence of the EU over the member states.

There is simply no comparison between the two no matter how much Eurofanatics like yourself might try to claim one.

"There is simply no comparison between the two."

It is nearly a year since I worried about the nuances of which supranational court that we are subservient to does what and the fact that you are trying to make a distinction that no one else in the UK will make shows how desperate you are. Comically so.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

Does the 1922 sit tonight?

Yes. I can smell the burning straw from EC2.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

Does the 1922 sit tonight?

The 1922 have already met. I suspect this is one of their red lines.

I think we've just become one step closer to Corbyn presenting a Queen's speech.

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

Does the 1922 sit tonight?

Yes. I can smell the burning straw from EC2.

Its the TOAST

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

Does the 1922 sit tonight?

The 1922 have already met. I suspect this is one of their red lines.

I think we've just become one step closer to Corbyn presenting a Queen's speech.

Corbyn doesn't have the numbers to present a QS either.

We have come a step closer to new elections though...