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Also, in an age where people seem to demand instant gratification, the youngsters who turned out to vote Corbyn might be a bit confused to see Theresa May still PM. Labour have to make it seem like they've won, else people might get bored of revolutionary politicsSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/8742016254680391690 -
Corals.
Year May is replaced as PM.
2017 - 7/4
2018 - 2/1
2019 - 12/1
2020 or later - 9/4
not sure why 2018 is so much shorter than 2019. I can see her going this autumn. i can also see her being left in place to start Brexit negotiation which is due to complete in 2019.0 -
Osborne is hated. I'm not saying May is any more popular.Bobajob_PB said:
Corrected for you.Mortimer said:Brom said:Judging by reactions at work George Osborne is more unpopular than Corbyn and May combined. I don't see any path for him to return to politics, his bridges are well and truly burned.
Yep - May's only handful of remaining supporters seem to be here, on PB.
You still don't get it do you?
Your girl – and her curtain-twitching, meddling wing of the party – has been utterly humiliated.
Your sycophantic greenhorn idolatry ("I can't wait for those exit poll bongs") for a woman who has achieved nothing has been brutally exposed.
A period of humility from you and your europhobic, socially conservative, statist fellow travellers who have wrecked the hard work Cameron and Osborne put in modernising the Tories would be greatly appreciated. As it is, you seem determined to steer your party back into the wilderness.
That's the problem with young fogies like you. They just don't know their history.
Still, at least I can remember my PB password...0 -
JC - 'We won the election!!!'Bobajob_PB said:
Can you point me to this extreme hubris you are witnessing?SouthamObserver said:
Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/8742016254680391690 -
Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East0 -
SCON about to declare UDI from CCHQ?
https://twitter.com/AidanKerrTweets/status/8742083286788710400 -
Business as usual resumes in the Labour party -
https://order-order.com/2017/06/12/labour-unity-over-chaos-over-single-market/0 -
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/873866245250179072Jason said:
JC - 'We won the election!!!'Bobajob_PB said:
Can you point me to this extreme hubris you are witnessing?SouthamObserver said:
Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/8742016254680391690 -
This is very true.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/874201625468039169
This is an opportunity for labour - nothing more. The perceived weaknesses in their position now need to be addressed. They have to redouble efforts to look capable and competent while the Tories struggle as a minority government. A reshuffle to bring in experience would be good I think.
Any news on the rules changes for labour leadership selection?0 -
I thought IR35 was effectively dead (in as much as it brought in about £800K per year rather than Gordon's promised £200m per year)?eek said:
There is a second issue there - the public sector IR35 changes that started in April and how NHS Improvement reacted to them has caused some interesting short term issues that now seem to be hitting the medium term.Beverley_C said:
What are the changes you are alluding to?0 -
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East0 -
A refusal to accept that Labour lost the election. Labour did much better than expected. This miserable government and its leader were humiliated. But Labour came second in votes, vote share and seats. Too many are getting ahead of themselves. Hopefully, it is only the initial, natural reaction to something that no-one imagined might happen.Bobajob_PB said:
Can you point me to this extreme hubris you are witnessing?SouthamObserver said:
Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/874201625468039169
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Kensington for Labour, surely?tlg86 said:
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East0 -
I posted my own acknowledgement on that in a thread header. I am now looking at how I can do better in future. The Meeks Inquiry into his own punditry failure will report in due course.Yorkcity said:
However when you were told by all the great and good that your party was finished and to be destroyed forever with a 150 majority maybe it's about time our political commentary Westminster types started to learn something including many on here me as well.It would be nice to see some acknowledgement they were not even close with their assesment and just followed the herd.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/8742016254680391690 -
Just giving Gove the bird....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, You Give Gove A Bad Name.
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Surely Eastbourne was their best result? That was completely out of the blue. I bet it had a certain ex-poster spitting feathers tootlg86 said:
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East
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They want a frictionless border. But one where there are lots of checks.rottenborough said:
DUP don't want a hard border with Ireland. That will colour everything they do.not_on_fire said:
The conservatives lost 33 MPs not 13. The net loss was 13 seats.David_Evershed said:The Conservatives lost 13 MPs and have gained 10 DUP MPs.
The DUP MPs are hard line Brexiteers.
Some of the lost 13 Conservatives will have been Remainers.
Surely this make sBrexit more likely not less likely.
PS Do we know if the 13 lost MPs were in seats where UKIP stood against them, indicating they were pro EU?
The DUP won't want hard Brexit and neither will most of the 12 new Scottish Tory MPs
An eerily familiar cake possession and cake eating position as most of Brexit.0 -
Vote due at conference later in the year. All the money pre-election was on it not passing. But that may change now.rkrkrk said:
This is very true.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/874201625468039169
This is an opportunity for labour - nothing more. The perceived weaknesses in their position now need to be addressed. They have to redouble efforts to look capable and competent while the Tories struggle as a minority government. A reshuffle to bring in experience would be good I think.
Any news on the rules changes for labour leadership selection?
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Do you think it is the 8 months of the Wilson administration added to the current date giving 2018 the "it'll all fall apart fairly quickly" date.paulyork64 said:Corals.
Year May is replaced as PM.
2017 - 7/4
2018 - 2/1
2019 - 12/1
2020 or later - 9/4
not sure why 2018 is so much shorter than 2019. I can see her going this autumn. i can also see her being left in place to start Brexit negotiation which is due to complete in 2019.0 -
Corbyn's doing " We're awwright " after losing rather than before.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/8742016254680391690 -
Lol!
When I heard the Tories were cutting a deal with a party of bigots and terrorist-sympathisers, I thought, ‘would a national unity government really work?’
It turns out Theresa May is tapping up the DUP rather than the Labour Party.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/labour-surrendered-corbynism/0 -
THat's assuming everything goes to plan. There is also the, it all falls apart, option which would be in 2018.paulyork64 said:Corals.
Year May is replaced as PM.
2017 - 7/4
2018 - 2/1
2019 - 12/1
2020 or later - 9/4
not sure why 2018 is so much shorter than 2019. I can see her going this autumn. i can also see her being left in place to start Brexit negotiation which is due to complete in 2019.0 -
Westmorland was 47% leave, Norfolk North 58% - Tim actually lost 2000 votes on an increased turnout whereas Norman GAINED over 5000.tlg86 said:
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East
Vastly more UKIP in Norfolk North compared to Westmorland too - Lamb's hold was alot more impressive I feel.0 -
Dangerous time for Labour. They were right to celebrate this weekend. But now is the time for cool heads. Decisions made this week could cast a long shadow.MonikerDiCanio said:
Corbyn's doing " We're awwright " after losing rather than before.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/8742016254680391690 -
Eastbourne wasn't out of the blue. Lloyd was an immensely popular MP, who carried on working for local people after he lost his seat. It was always one of the LDs prospects and I mentioned it as a possible gain several times on PB. My mistake was backing it too early - the odds got better as polling day approached.not_on_fire said:
Surely Eastbourne was their best result? That was completely out of the blue. I bet it had a certain ex-poster spitting feathers tootlg86 said:
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East0 -
Fair enough. I was thinking more a long the lines that Lamb is probably like by his constituents...Pulpstar said:
Westmorland was 47% leave, Norfolk North 58% - Tim actually lost 2000 votes on an increased turnout whereas Norman GAINED over 5000.tlg86 said:
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East
Vastly more UKIP in Norfolk North compared to Westmorland too - Lamb's hold was alot more impressive I feel.0 -
The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.0
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Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/8742069152150978580 -
Displacement activity.Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
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No, I think Pulpstar is right, Canterbury was a fantastic win for Labour. Had Labour won Chelsea and Fulham, now that would have trumped it.IanB2 said:
Kensington for Labour, surely?tlg86 said:
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East0 -
Some say Boris' leadership bid was killed off by Gove In The First Degree.0
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This might explain the keenness for 2018:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/874212081960194050
I don't see it. Either Theresa May goes quite quickly or she has time to rebuild her position. She won't be easily ousted in a year's time once the new modus vivendi has been established.0 -
It's a shame the DUP isn't a national party, they've got a programme that would have wide appeal.calum said:Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/8742069152150978580 -
Of course we can't. But what we can do is give ourselves a better opportunity to get a decent deal by approaching negotiations as ones taking place between friends and not enemies.Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
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I wouldn't argue against 2018 being more likely than 2019. just not 6 times more likely.Alistair said:
THat's assuming everything goes to plan. There is also the, it all falls apart, option which would be in 2018.paulyork64 said:Corals.
Year May is replaced as PM.
2017 - 7/4
2018 - 2/1
2019 - 12/1
2020 or later - 9/4
not sure why 2018 is so much shorter than 2019. I can see her going this autumn. i can also see her being left in place to start Brexit negotiation which is due to complete in 2019.0 -
Surely it is entirely our decision whether we stay in the Single Market or the Customs Union? Do the EU have the power to kick us out of them?Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
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Yep - Jeremy needs some time on his allotment and McDonnell needs a few days R&R in Free Derry.Jonathan said:
Dangerous time for Labour. They were right to celebrate this weekend. But now is the time for cool heads. Decisions made this week could cast a long shadow.MonikerDiCanio said:
Corbyn's doing " We're awwright " after losing rather than before.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/874201625468039169
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if that really was the price of the "deal", would people like Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry actually vote against the QS? (or at least abstain)?calum said:Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/8742069152150978580 -
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correction i think the implied probability works out at about 4 times more likely.paulyork64 said:
I wouldn't argue against 2018 being more likely than 2019. just not 6 times more likely.Alistair said:
THat's assuming everything goes to plan. There is also the, it all falls apart, option which would be in 2018.paulyork64 said:Corals.
Year May is replaced as PM.
2017 - 7/4
2018 - 2/1
2019 - 12/1
2020 or later - 9/4
not sure why 2018 is so much shorter than 2019. I can see her going this autumn. i can also see her being left in place to start Brexit negotiation which is due to complete in 2019.0 -
And the country.JackW said:What a clusterf*ck May has delivered to her party.
She became leader because she was thought to be the epitome of a safe pair of hands in a very difficult situation. For as long as she seemed to fit that role, she had stratospheric approval ratings both in the party and in the country. Then she suddenly started acting like a drunk who has found the keys to a JCB and has decided it would be fun to see what you can do with it.0 -
It's a bit more complicated than that, surely. The DUP (like the new Scottish Tory MPs) are more soft-Brexit people. For example, the DUP isn't going to support a hard border with the Republic of Ireland.David_Evershed said:The Conservatives lost 13 MPs and have gained 10 DUP MPs.
The DUP MPs are hard line Brexiteers.
Some of the lost 13 Conservatives will have been Remainers.
Surely this make sBrexit more likely not less likely.
PS Do we know if the 13 lost MPs were in seats where UKIP stood against them, indicating they were pro EU?0 -
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Oops, I had totally misread the odds there.paulyork64 said:
I wouldn't argue against 2018 being more likely than 2019. just not 6 times more likely.Alistair said:
THat's assuming everything goes to plan. There is also the, it all falls apart, option which would be in 2018.paulyork64 said:Corals.
Year May is replaced as PM.
2017 - 7/4
2018 - 2/1
2019 - 12/1
2020 or later - 9/4
not sure why 2018 is so much shorter than 2019. I can see her going this autumn. i can also see her being left in place to start Brexit negotiation which is due to complete in 2019.0 -
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Doing that would be madness for peace in NI and look appalling viewed from the Ukllef said:
if that really was the price of the "deal", would people like Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry actually vote against the QS? (or at least abstain)?calum said:Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/8742069152150978580 -
That's not actually true by Jon Snow - it's an orange lodge suggesting it, not the DUP.calum said:Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/8742069152150978580 -
Remember when we had a discussion on here about whether or not the Standard under Osborne would be an influential rag and some people argued that it would not be?
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/8742134119361945600 -
It won't be just two.llef said:
if that really was the price of the "deal", would people like Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry actually vote against the QS? (or at least abstain)?calum said:Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/874206915215097858
I'd expect a substantial rebellion and a VONC in Mrs May.0 -
Softies vs hard nuts.Scott_P said:0 -
This is exactly what Jonathan Powell was warning about.llef said:
if that really was the price of the "deal", would people like Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry actually vote against the QS? (or at least abstain)?calum said:Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/8742069152150978580 -
Yes it is back to the Bastards. And yes also to Jezza. Why on earth should he help the Cons when he has an election to win plus it is his job to oppose, not support.OblitusSumMe said:
Oh, personally, as a remainer, I agree. But David Davis, Liam Fox and probably at least 50 Tory MPs certainly would not agree. So it's just not enough for Labour to struggle to criticise the policy. A Conservative Prime Minister would need the active support of the Labour leadership.TOPPING said:
At this stage, I think most everyone should grab EEA/EFTA with both hands. The Cons could then spin it any old way they wanted to. What could Lab say?OblitusSumMe said:
We get out of the Common Fisheries Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy (by far the largest item in the EU budget), but eastern Europeans would still be able to come here to work.TOPPING said:
It turns on whether EEA/EFTA is perceived as Brexit or not.AlastairMeeks said:I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
It's finely balanced, but I don't think that Remainers are prepared to sell it as leaving the EU, because they are trying to sell it to themselves as remaining in the EU.
And as rcs1000 pointed out, Corbyn is not inclined to dig the Conservatives out of the hole they find themselves in right now. He would rather fight another general election then provide Parliamentary support for EEA/EFTA membership.0 -
My assumption is that the EU would like Britain as much in the EU as possible. So, they'd rather we adopted the Euro and Schengen, but accepted our opt-outs on those. They would rather we remained in the EU over leaving. They would prefer we remain in the Single Market, rather than leave it, etc, etc.Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
Of course they will have certain conditions to attach to the various levels of our engagement, such as freedom of movement, ECJ oversight, contributions to the EU budget, etc, but I see no sign that they would prefer us to leave the Single Market rather than remain within it.0 -
Westmorland was safe as houses, he had over 50% last time. North Norfolk was very maginal.tlg86 said:
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East
Why was "hanging on" to a seat you started with over 50% of the vote of even remotely an achievement?0 -
They didn't have power to kick us out, but we've set in motion plans to leave. We would be seeking some new arrangement which of course would require their agreement (and quite possibly unanimous agreement amongst the 27 states, although that is not entirely clear).Danny565 said:
Surely it is entirely our decision whether we stay in the Single Market or the Customs Union? Do the EU have the power to kick us out of them?Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
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Peterborough must have been a good win for Labour.0
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Another factor as long as the FTPA exists is that any governing party will now surely be very wary of a 7 week campaign. It's way too long and allows for a very strident change in opinion. A4or5week campaign would probably have seen a small to medium Tory majority. 4 week drift before manifesto launch is fatal for a governing party.0
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Warwick and Leamington was the biggest shock Labour win for me. Canterbury was suggested beforehand. If W & L was I missed it.tlg86 said:
No, I think Pulpstar is right, Canterbury was a fantastic win for Labour. Had Labour won Chelsea and Fulham, now that would have trumped it.IanB2 said:
Kensington for Labour, surely?tlg86 said:
I think hanging on to Westmorland and Lonsdale was probably a better achievement for the Lib Dems than hanging on to North Norfolk. But it might have been better for them had Tim Farron lost.Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East0 -
That has been Theresa May's and DD's approach all along.SouthamObserver said:
Of course we can't. But what we can do is give ourselves a better opportunity to get a decent deal by approaching negotiations as ones taking place between friends and not enemies.Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
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They have the power to kick us out of the Customs Union but not the Single Market. The first is based on EU membership whilst the second is based upon membership of the EEA.Danny565 said:
Surely it is entirely our decision whether we stay in the Single Market or the Customs Union? Do the EU have the power to kick us out of them?Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
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Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.0
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re peston's comment "outline a vision for how to reconnect the Tory party with younger voters or at least soften their disgust with the government", how does he know that the young were "disgusted" with the government, rather than voting for Corbyn because of the freebies on offer?AlastairMeeks said:This might explain the keenness for 2018:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/874212081960194050
I don't see it. Either Theresa May goes quite quickly or she has time to rebuild her position. She won't be easily ousted in a year's time once the new modus vivendi has been established.
To my mind, a young person voting for Corbyn was a rational thing to do, it did not have to signify "disgust" with the Tories?0 -
In truth, I think May's high public approval ratings were based on a rather lazy assumption that, because she was a woman, she must be Thatcher reincarnate. That was never going to survive an election campaign where she had to do much more media and when people were taking a proper look at her.Richard_Nabavi said:
And the country.JackW said:What a clusterf*ck May has delivered to her party.
She became leader because she was thought to be the epitome of a safe pair of hands in a very difficult situation. For as long as she seemed to fit that role, she had stratospheric approval ratings both in the party and in the country. Then she suddenly started acting like a drunk who has found the keys to a JCB and has decided it would be fun to see what you can do with it.0 -
Excellent. So leaving and getting into the EEA/EFTA with FoM and ECJ subservience has you dancing in the streets. Good to know.isam said:
As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times nowTOPPING said:
BUT WHAT IS IT?isam said:
For someone who is a laughing stock due to lack of understanding, you are amazingly smug. Brings to mind 'Farage will not be in the debates"Scott_P said:
And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.isam said:Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.
Remedial democracy, again.
It's been voted for by the public, passed in the House of Commons, and committed to by both parties in their manifestos, I won't lose too much sleep.
As you Leavers always tell us - it is up to the government to determine what that means.
Would you be happy with us being in EEA/EFTA?0 -
Danny565 said:
Surely it is entirely our decision whether we stay in the Single Market or the Customs Union? Do the EU have the power to kick us out of them?Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
We're out of both unless both sides make a new agreement. So, yes.Danny565 said:
Surely it is entirely our decision whether we stay in the Single Market or the Customs Union? Do the EU have the power to kick us out of them?Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
0 -
But you have to have that long in order to No Confidence yourself. 4 weeks assumes the other parties will vote for an election. You can't assume that. FTPA = long election campaigns.dyedwoolie said:Another factor as long as the FTPA exists is that any governing party will now surely be very wary of a 7 week campaign. It's way too long and allows for a very strident change in opinion. A4or5week campaign would probably have seen a small to medium Tory majority. 4 week drift before manifesto launch is fatal for a governing party.
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Thanks all. No, I am not aware of how student loan repayments work. Do I understand then that as a graduate you pay 9% extra tax a year regardless of what you owe? You could have to repay more than you owe?Nemtynakht said:
So the Tories need to do something about housing costs. I think the subsidy they could wear would be a large house building program even if this needs direct state intervention. The success in the past of Tories has been amongst homeowners. The fact that the educated and employed are struggling to secure accommodation has to be a drag on their vote. The other thing would be to further support costs for nursery care for working families. The costs of this are unbelievably high and hinder families (mainly mothers) in the jobs market.not_on_fire said:
Well, the obvious thing you're missing is that living costs, especially housing are far higher in real terms than they were for you in the 1980s.
You also don't appear to be aware of how student loan repayments work. They have nothing to do with the size of the debt or the interest rate but are determined by the borrower's gross salary (9% on everything earned over £21k)
Most students are currently leaving university with a debt of £40k with an interest rate of 3-6% (the exact rate again depends on your salary ranging between RPI+0 and RPI+3)0 -
Losing Ceredigion? No Liberal seat in Wales for over 100 years?rcs1000 said:
Worst LD result is surely Fife NE!Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East0 -
If it had they would have clearly and unequivocally repudiated the headlines in the right wing press. They didn't. They pandered to them. Going so far as to accuse Brussels of seeking to influence the outcome of the election.Richard_Nabavi said:
That has been Theresa May's and DD's approach all along.SouthamObserver said:
Of course we can't. But what we can do is give ourselves a better opportunity to get a decent deal by approaching negotiations as ones taking place between friends and not enemies.Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
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True, the inevitable consequence of which is another vote of some kindThreeQuidder said:Nobody has an electoral mandate to do anything else...
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He's been given all the ammunition he needs to cover himself by the hard Brexiteers who've promised we can have it all. Corbyn just needs to 'support' that and the government will have nowhere to hide.TOPPING said:
Yes it is back to the Bastards. And yes also to Jezza. Why on earth should he help the Cons when he has an election to win plus it is his job to oppose, not support.OblitusSumMe said:
Oh, personally, as a remainer, I agree. But David Davis, Liam Fox and probably at least 50 Tory MPs certainly would not agree. So it's just not enough for Labour to struggle to criticise the policy. A Conservative Prime Minister would need the active support of the Labour leadership.TOPPING said:
At this stage, I think most everyone should grab EEA/EFTA with both hands. The Cons could then spin it any old way they wanted to. What could Lab say?OblitusSumMe said:
We get out of the Common Fisheries Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy (by far the largest item in the EU budget), but eastern Europeans would still be able to come here to work.TOPPING said:
It turns on whether EEA/EFTA is perceived as Brexit or not.AlastairMeeks said:I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
It's finely balanced, but I don't think that Remainers are prepared to sell it as leaving the EU, because they are trying to sell it to themselves as remaining in the EU.
And as rcs1000 pointed out, Corbyn is not inclined to dig the Conservatives out of the hole they find themselves in right now. He would rather fight another general election then provide Parliamentary support for EEA/EFTA membership.0 -
Mrs May will find her room for manoeuvre severely curtailed.....if it works, we'll see a return of Cabinet government, which would be a good thing - hopefully the prospect of a Labour Corbyn landslide in any immediate GE will concentrate minds in the Cabinet. I suspect Mr Green will be happy to tell Theresa when 'enough's enough', to borrow a phrase.....Scott_P said:0 -
Warwick & Leamington was a stonker.Yorkcity said:Peterborough must have been a good win for Labour.
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The Tories need to get a true Leaver in as leader and the fog will soon clear.Stark_Dawning said:Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.
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EEA/EFTA has no ECJ subservience. Stop making unfounded claims.TOPPING said:
Excellent. So leaving and getting into the EEA/EFTA with FoM and ECJ subservience has you dancing in the streets. Good to know.isam said:
As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times nowTOPPING said:
BUT WHAT IS IT?isam said:
For someone who is a laughing stock due to lack of understanding, you are amazingly smug. Brings to mind 'Farage will not be in the debates"Scott_P said:
And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.isam said:Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.
Remedial democracy, again.
It's been voted for by the public, passed in the House of Commons, and committed to by both parties in their manifestos, I won't lose too much sleep.
As you Leavers always tell us - it is up to the government to determine what that means.
Would you be happy with us being in EEA/EFTA?0 -
isam said:
Hard left banned competitive sport, losers can self identify as winnersAlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/874201625468039169
A couple of Chinese communists at Uni with me never played tennis for points because there could be no winners or losers.0 -
On a serious point, there were plenty of "I'm voting Jezza because he can't possibly get in" hitherto Cons supporters. Will this have shocked them into a return to Cons when they see that he is very likely to get in.Yorkcity said:How they laughed on here those Conservatives who voted for Corbyn in the Labour leadership .Can they share their thoughts now.
The many, many ones I spoke to were uniformly in multi-million pound houses for whom some kind of dementia tax will seem like a drop in the ocean compared with Jezza in power and gunning for them.
Useful idiots indeed.0 -
0
-
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Hold on until 2022, get a majority, ditch her. That would be the ideal. How achievable goodness knows.AlastairMeeks said:This might explain the keenness for 2018:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/874212081960194050
I don't see it. Either Theresa May goes quite quickly or she has time to rebuild her position. She won't be easily ousted in a year's time once the new modus vivendi has been established.
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Erm, didn't Black Wednesday turn out to be rather good for the Tories.Stark_Dawning said:Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.
It certainly was for the economy as we pulled out of the ERM.0 -
As John Donne said in his Devotions on Brexit and worth repeating in full here:SouthamObserver said:
Of course we can't. But what we can do is give ourselves a better opportunity to get a decent deal by approaching negotiations as ones taking place between friends and not enemies.Richard_Nabavi said:The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.
No man is an island entire of itself; every man
is a piece of the continent, a part of the main;
if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe
is the less,
as well as if a promontory were, as
well as any manner of thy friends or of thine
own were; any man's death diminishes me,
because I am involved in mankind.
And therefore never send to know for whom
the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.0 -
As well as soft BREXIT, both DUP & SCON will also be after billions for investment !rcs1000 said:
It's a bit more complicated than that, surely. The DUP (like the new Scottish Tory MPs) are more soft-Brexit people. For example, the DUP isn't going to support a hard border with the Republic of Ireland.David_Evershed said:The Conservatives lost 13 MPs and have gained 10 DUP MPs.
The DUP MPs are hard line Brexiteers.
Some of the lost 13 Conservatives will have been Remainers.
Surely this make sBrexit more likely not less likely.
PS Do we know if the 13 lost MPs were in seats where UKIP stood against them, indicating they were pro EU?0 -
indirectly.Richard_Tyndall said:
EEA/EFTA has no ECJ subservience. Stop making unfounded claims.TOPPING said:
Excellent. So leaving and getting into the EEA/EFTA with FoM and ECJ subservience has you dancing in the streets. Good to know.isam said:
As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times nowTOPPING said:
BUT WHAT IS IT?isam said:
For someone who is a laughing stock due to lack of understanding, you are amazingly smug. Brings to mind 'Farage will not be in the debates"Scott_P said:
And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.isam said:Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.
Remedial democracy, again.
It's been voted for by the public, passed in the House of Commons, and committed to by both parties in their manifestos, I won't lose too much sleep.
As you Leavers always tell us - it is up to the government to determine what that means.
Would you be happy with us being in EEA/EFTA?0 -
@tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.0
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I think the intersection of Scottish Social Attitudes and Norn Ireland politics is going to open a new trough of ignorance for them.AlastairMeeks said:Well quite:
twitter.com/davieclegg/status/874213981904392196
twitter.com/davieclegg/status/874214258854297601
I'm sure lots of London journos are really, really puzzled as to why they can't get an interview with an SCon at the moment.0 -
Yep. There is a reason many people refer to it as White Wednesdaynigel4england said:
Erm, didn't Black Wednesday turn out to be rather good for the Tories.Stark_Dawning said:Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.
It certainly was for the economy as we pulled out of the ERM.0 -
The useful idiots were and are the Conservatives who agitated for hard-left positions like Brexit.TOPPING said:The many, many ones I spoke to were uniformly in multi-million pound houses for whom some kind of dementia tax will seem like a drop in the ocean compared with Jezza in power and gunning for them.
Useful idiots indeed.
If the Labour front-bench becomes more inclusive and we remain in a two party state then I can see Labour dominating London in the same way that the Democrats dominate New York and California. Brexit has become a culture war and the Tories are on the wrong side of it.0 -
Not even that. See various examples from Norway that I have mentioned before.TOPPING said:
indirectly.Richard_Tyndall said:
EEA/EFTA has no ECJ subservience. Stop making unfounded claims.TOPPING said:
Excellent. So leaving and getting into the EEA/EFTA with FoM and ECJ subservience has you dancing in the streets. Good to know.isam said:
As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times nowTOPPING said:
BUT WHAT IS IT?isam said:
For someone who is a laughing stock due to lack of understanding, you are amazingly smug. Brings to mind 'Farage will not be in the debates"Scott_P said:
And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.isam said:Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.
Remedial democracy, again.
It's been voted for by the public, passed in the House of Commons, and committed to by both parties in their manifestos, I won't lose too much sleep.
As you Leavers always tell us - it is up to the government to determine what that means.
Would you be happy with us being in EEA/EFTA?0 -
After all elections that I can remember (so back to 1997) the winner of the election has received a boost in the opinion polls afterwards. Only one poll in, but so far it is Corbyn and Labour that are receiving this boost in the opinion polls.SouthamObserver said:
A refusal to accept that Labour lost the election. Labour did much better than expected. This miserable government and its leader were humiliated. But Labour came second in votes, vote share and seats. Too many are getting ahead of themselves. Hopefully, it is only the initial, natural reaction to something that no-one imagined might happen.Bobajob_PB said:
Can you point me to this extreme hubris you are witnessing?SouthamObserver said:
Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/8742016254680391690 -
I think the Blues would love to hold on until 2022. but I think the chances of them letting May be the one to lead them into that election is close to 0. so I think the latest she would be replaced is 2020.TOPPING said:
Hold on until 2022, get a majority, ditch her. That would be the ideal. How achievable goodness knows.AlastairMeeks said:This might explain the keenness for 2018:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/874212081960194050
I don't see it. Either Theresa May goes quite quickly or she has time to rebuild her position. She won't be easily ousted in a year's time once the new modus vivendi has been established.0 -
'Sensibles' and 'Creationists' made me smile.MonikerDiCanio said:
Softies vs hard nuts.Scott_P said:0 -
When you think you are about to be killed off politically forever,then to find out the next morning not only that you have survived but are only 1 goal down and the home leg to come in your European fixture no wonder you are over the moon.SouthamObserver said:
A refusal to accept that Labour lost the election. Labour did much better than expected. This miserable government and its leader were humiliated. But Labour came second in votes, vote share and seats. Too many are getting ahead of themselves. Hopefully, it is only the initial, natural reaction to something that no-one imagined might happen.Bobajob_PB said:
Can you point me to this extreme hubris you are witnessing?SouthamObserver said:
Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Smart point from Tim Harford:
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/8742016254680391690 -
It's not as bad as Black Wednesday for the Tories (Yet) as so far thousands of people aren't being kicked out of their homes as a result of trying to stay tied to a European project...Stark_Dawning said:Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.
0 -
If you can call losing 178 seats 'rather good' then you have a point.nigel4england said:
Erm, didn't Black Wednesday turn out to be rather good for the Tories.Stark_Dawning said:Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.
It certainly was for the economy as we pulled out of the ERM.0 -
rcs1000 said:
Worst LD result is surely Fife NE!Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East
Or St Ives - they really needed to establish a toehold back in the SWrcs1000 said:
Worst LD result is surely Fife NE!Pulpstar said:Best & Worst results for each party ?
Tories: Banff / High Peak
Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East0
