politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why TMay must stay – for now
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Labour is only "committed" to it in the sense that the proximity of the referendum and the views of many of their voters make it impossible for them to change tack and do what almost all of their MPs know is best for Britain. Events, and time, will open up such a path, and the GE has just made that so very much easier.isam said:
Yes, @Roger has said it for one.williamglenn said:
Has anyone said that? It's more a case of the election result making Brexit impossible to deliver.isam said:
Labour only got as close as it did because it accepted Brexit was going to happen. It baffles me that some people are trying to make out that the Election result says Brexit should be shelved.SouthamObserver said:Brexit from here should be cross-party and based on this:
http://www.britishfuture.org/articles/news/leave-and-remain-voices-back-shared-vision-for-how-uk-can-brexit-together/
Why is it impossible to deliver now anymore than 48hrs ago? A huge majority of votes voted for parties that are commited to it0 -
Osborne as Tory Leader/PM would be a mistake of quite spectacularly epic proportions.0
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If Cooper had been Shadow Home for the last six months plus, and there'd been similar use made of other talent, I reckon they could have become the first party. But actually I'm not even sure May would have called the election, because I doubt that the 20+ point leads would have materialised in the polls!IanB2 said:How much better would Lab have done with Cooper covering the HO brief and Diane Abbott off our screens?
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Mr. Observer, the far left's grip on Labour has tightened. That is no reason to celebrate.0
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Further thought. The time to replace the Prime Minister will come when there's someone capable of doing the job better. I don't see such a person right now. Like John Major in the 1990s, no one is better placed to deal with all the different interest groups. Even if all of them disdain her.0
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And having unionism in Scotland so clearly associated with the whole thing would poison the well there too.MaxPB said:Was chatting to someone last night who is utterly opposed to our new pact with the DUP. He described it using "The Snake" and he thinks the DUP will absolutelyfuck us over in the long term and possibly even poison the well for unionism in NI.
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What chance the McDonell amendment making it through conference now?
Substantially higher than 48 hours ago imo.0 -
I believe that 36 was the Lab lead after one of the recounts.alex. said:
They should have done a recount.Alistair said:
Survation Gold Standard. YouGov modelling - gold standard.freetochoose said:
You don't really believe opinion polls do you?Roger said:
The Tories are screwed. An election in the next two years and Jeremy will win. Change leader and there's even more chance that the government will fall. It'll be interesting to see the next lot of opinion polls. My guess is a collapse in Tory support and with Brexit that's unlikely to improve.Jonathan said:
Fear on Boris is limited to the competence of his administration.MaxPB said:I also think there is fear of Boris among Labour ranks, he won twice in London, a Labour city because he was able to connect with common people a lot more easily than other Tory politicians. He could lead a blue advance into areas that are deep crimson at the moment and if he were to deliver the £350m per week then a lot of the claims of lies would disappear, making it easier for him to win in Labour areas and shore up Tory Remainers.
There is little to fear electorally now. Politician have a limited shelf life. Boris already looks a bit like yesterday's man. You normally get about 10 years in the limelight. Boris is on nine.
If anything he is perfectly placed to draw the final curtain on the project his mates started all that time ago.
But I don't think the Tories have much choice now.
Although they did think Labour would win Kensington by 36 rather than the 20 votes they did.0 -
As I said previously, if she dropped her support for the death penalty I think she'd be one of the front runners to replace May. She is smart, human, speaks well and can think quickly.MyBurningEars said:
Priti is superficially attractive (don't mean it that way) and I'm sure would give a lot of red meat to the Tory right. But I don't think she'll go down well with swing voters, once they've had a full blast from her. She has some very robust views e.g. on the death penalty, that don't just put people off because they think she might implement them (overall no Tory platform is going to bring back hanging and flogging, the party has moved way too far on) but because it makes people doubt her judgment, values and/or intelligence for believing them.MaxPB said:
Yes, he does have a way of putting some people off, but I think we'd win more than we'd lose, plus we'd win in key areas rather than build up votes in safe Labour seats.MyBurningEars said:
I don't disagree that he can reach across the divide. There are voters he can reach that the others can't - 52%, including many Labour voters, says a lot about that. The problem is that he is also toxic to some other voters. (@JosiasJessop on here being one example!) To strong Remainers, and/or those who see him as a bumbling incompetent toff, he is very seriously offputting. I think you could get away with him as a campaigner supporting someone else, but not as the main proposition you're asking people to vote for. I don't think he'd carry London now after his role in the Leave campaign.MaxPB said:
A lot to agree with there, but I do think has a proven capability of reaching across the divide. He won twice in London which was and still is a Labour city. Labour anger towards Boris stems from the £350m per week lie, if he delivers £350m per week to the NHS then a lot of that anger will disappear as it won't be a lie.
I'm personally not convinced by Boris, but I do think we need to take a gamble. If he brings in new talent (Kwarteng) and old (Gove, Osborne) then he could lead a strong government despite the fact that May fucked us with the minority.
(I did suggest a few threads that if the Tories want to make a positive statement with a leadership change, rather than one that looks like a post-defeat retreat, they should consider putting making someone smart, fresh-faced and forward-looking like Kwasi PM! But in reality I think it needs to be someone experienced in political chicanery and deal-making in the Commons, and a big enough beast to command respect from the Tory MPs / negotiators in Brussels.)
Kwasi needs a big role next time around, so does Priti Patel. We need to bring through the next generation of Tories. Hammond, May, Davis and a few others need to be pensioned off.0 -
Watching all the Brexiteers furious because they've found that there are other successful forms of crazy populism is very funny.0
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ok another random thought as we cast around - Johnny Mercer as Tory leader would certainly punch Labour's bruise in contrast to his background?0
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I was one of the deriders. In my defence of my criticism - on the YuoGov model I said that it was absolutely the right approach but that they couldn't get it right this time and would need a couple of elections to tune it.freetochoose said:
Yep, polls that were widely derided on hereAlistair said:
Survation Gold Standard. YouGov modelling - gold standard.freetochoose said:
You don't really believe opinion polls do you?Roger said:
The Tories are screwed. An election in the next two years and Jeremy will win. Change leader and there's even more chance that the government will fall. It'll be interesting to see the next lot of opinion polls. My guess is a collapse in Tory support and with Brexit that's unlikely to improve.Jonathan said:
Fear on Boris is limited to the competence of his administration.MaxPB said:I also think there is fear of Boris among Labour ranks, he won twice in London, a Labour city because he was able to connect with common people a lot more easily than other Tory politicians. He could lead a blue advance into areas that are deep crimson at the moment and if he were to deliver the £350m per week then a lot of the claims of lies would disappear, making it easier for him to win in Labour areas and shore up Tory Remainers.
There is little to fear electorally now. Politician have a limited shelf life. Boris already looks a bit like yesterday's man. You normally get about 10 years in the limelight. Boris is on nine.
If anything he is perfectly placed to draw the final curtain on the project his mates started all that time ago.
But I don't think the Tories have much choice now.
Although they did think Labour would win Kensington by 36 rather than the 20 votes they did.
So like YouGov I hedged my bets!0 -
V. interesting.IanB2 said:
This from a guy in touch with voters for Labour every day is interesting, as anecdotal evidence that the swing came very late -rottenborough said:NickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)
It was woeful frankly. And deeply cynical.
Presumably the Tories also need a thorough review of their canvassing and data processes and internal focus grouping. Surely some of the swing back from them was being picked up and they would have changed tactics.
Or did it all happen in the last 24 hours?
I have no idea, although as I said yesterday, a family member told me that the mood at his West Midlands medium-sized business changed markedly the day after she failed to turn up to the main TV debate.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/09/i-phone-banked-for-four-weeks-but-picked-up-no-labour-surge-and-then-on-polling-day-there-it-was/
Seems Tory manifesto and its promise of hard times might have cut through:
"So, the economy prevailed once again but this time low income workers, benefit claimants and retirees stepped up."0 -
May should never have sacked Osborne
He torpedoed Gordo's snap election with the Death Tax.
If May had included him, he would have torpedoed the Dementia Tax before it made it into the manifesto0 -
If - as is quite likely - there is another NI election to resolve the Stormont impasse, this could become a proxy vote on the national situation. The young of the province might easily desert the DUP.williamglenn said:
And having unionism in Scotland so clearly associated with the whole thing would poison the well there too.MaxPB said:Was chatting to someone last night who is utterly opposed to our new pact with the DUP. He described it using "The Snake" and he thinks the DUP will absolutelyfuck us over in the long term and possibly even poison the well for unionism in NI.
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That is a chief source of joy todayAlastairMeeks said:Watching all the Brexiteers furious because they've found that there are other successful forms of crazy populism is very funny.
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Yes he brought that up too. The resurgence of unionism in Scotland has been built in socially liberal foundations laid by a gay Tory leader. Getting in bed with the DUP takes that party backwards, this won't go unnoticed by our new supporters in Scotland.williamglenn said:
And having unionism in Scotland so clearly associated with the whole thing would poison the well there too.MaxPB said:Was chatting to someone last night who is utterly opposed to our new pact with the DUP. He described it using "The Snake" and he thinks the DUP will absolutelyfuck us over in the long term and possibly even poison the well for unionism in NI.
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@hholyroodmandy: An ultimate humiliation for @NicolaSturgeon would be for Theresa May to give @RuthDavidsonMSP seat at Brexit table 'speaking for Scotland'.0
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FPT
I fail to see how Boris Johnson could conceivably be considered as a possible suitable future leader of the Conservative Party. Those in any doubt should consider his performance in the notorioius interview with Eddie Mair, dating back to 2013:
http://tinyurl.com/y7jcs3fb
Not only does he come across and an evasive, bumbling idiot, but his actions show him to be, as Mr Mair rightly concludes in my view, a "rather nasty bit of work".
It's certainly difficult to argue with that and the Tories really do need to look elsewhere and as a matter of some urgency with a view to identifying their next leader .... surely there's someone in their ranks better than this?0 -
Hi, Delurking for a moment.
Coming from somewhere that remains safely blue (North Essex), it's clear May ran a terrible campaign with no positives from the comments I've heard over the last few weeks among us normal people. Even my mother, who is right to Attila the Hun and is affectionately called the Jade Empress at home, evaluated it right by commenting that May came across as cold and only looked at the long-term; putting up policies that would help put us in better shape financially but this could have been done anyway bit by bit once in Government and not put up as a main part of the manifesto as most of us expect to have to contribute more at some point.
Anyway, in my view, for the Conservative party to stem further losses (and I am not party affiliated), I think May should go very soon and another election held. I don't believe Boris is the right person to lead the party; fighting big personality (Jeremy) with big personality will cause divisiveness. So why not someone like Dr Sarah Wollaston, she can be seen as stable and safe even though she is a newcomer, as, after all, who doesn't trust a doctor? She has a good background that will appeal to the working and middle class from both sides of the spectrum and can detoxify social care and NHS issues, campaigning to move the party back to a more caring centrist position. Her views on Brexit are an issue as a vocal remainer but if she can state she has accepted the referendum decision and now will represent the best interests of the country as we are leaving that could negate that somewhat. She might not win an election at this stage but could stem further losses and build the party's credibility for the next election.
I also think that Brexit does not have to take centre stage in the election, I honestly believe that out in the real world most accept it will occur and in what shape is really up to what comes up in negotiation. It takes 2 (or in this case 28) to make an agreement and if the EU are unreasonable in the extreme we would may accept a more hardline Brexit position. Perhaps that's just the Essex in me, over here we just get on with it and don't like prolonged agonising, we also don't take any crap.
BTW, I personally am more of a Priti Patel type person but think she is not the best media performer and can come across as a bit patronising at times. It's time for healing and conciliation (but with Brexit still please)!
Right, back to lurkdom....
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Ashcroft says that people who voted Labour made up the bulk of people who decided in the last week.rottenborough said:
V. interesting.IanB2 said:
This from a guy in touch with voters for Labour every day is interesting, as anecdotal evidence that the swing came very late -rottenborough said:NickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)
It was woeful frankly. And deeply cynical.
Presumably the Tories also need a thorough review of their canvassing and data processes and internal focus grouping. Surely some of the swing back from them was being picked up and they would have changed tactics.
Or did it all happen in the last 24 hours?
I have no idea, although as I said yesterday, a family member told me that the mood at his West Midlands medium-sized business changed markedly the day after she failed to turn up to the main TV debate.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/09/i-phone-banked-for-four-weeks-but-picked-up-no-labour-surge-and-then-on-polling-day-there-it-was/
Seems Tory manifesto and its promise of hard times might have cut through:
"So, the economy prevailed once again but this time low income workers, benefit claimants and retirees stepped up."
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/result-happen-post-vote-survey/0 -
That must surely be a no-brainer of a decision. The Scottish Conservatives now have an ample mandate for such a stunt.Scott_P said:@hholyroodmandy: An ultimate humiliation for @NicolaSturgeon would be for Theresa May to give @RuthDavidsonMSP seat at Brexit table 'speaking for Scotland'.
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in spite of Theresa May's catastrophic mistakes in this GE, I believe she is the right person to lead this country AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. Yes, I expect she will have to go eventually but NOT NOW.
It would be too much to hope that everyone puts away their petty personal vendettas and "briefings" but the country has been saved from a Corbyn/Unite Union government, which would have turned this country into a complete basket case within months (and I go back a long way). The problem young people don't know any of this and just see this "Santa Claus" figure, with his bag of goodies.
I could go on and I'm angry but we cannot in any circumstances have another GE because this man is only a step away from government and the country can't afford him in any shape or form.0 -
Where is it?AlastairMeeks said:Watching all the Brexiteers furious because they've found that there are other successful forms of crazy populism is very funny.
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Mr. Meeks/Mr. P, are you really pleased that the far left has been emboldened and tightened its grip on Labour?
You think leaving the EU woeful, yet are gladdened and cheery about a second woe?
I can see why you might be pro-EU. I can't see why you're mirthful about the advance of the far left.
Mr. P, problem was that May's circle was too tight and, ultimately, she was too stupid to see how bad the policy was (and there were no lines to defend it, or attack the alternative).0 -
Again you say 'you lost it' - I am not a Conservative.MaxPB said:.
But we still held on in enough seats to win a majority last time around. This time we lost seats and lost our majority. You need to face up to that, we won a majority you lost it.another_richard said:
Perhaps you could explain why the Conservatives worst results in 2015 were in London then ?MaxPB said:
Reconnect the party with urban liberals that we've lost. Win back seats like Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central. Advance in Ealing, Enfield North. Win back seats like Leamington.
You might loathe Osborne but he represents a part of the party and support base that we need to win. The current leadership abandoned them to chase Blue Labour voters and we lost our majority. I think a period of silence from your lot would do us all some good.
Lets take a look:
Enfield Southgate
2010 Con maj 17.2%
2015 Con maj 10.4%
Croydon Central
2010 Con maj 5.9%
2015 Con maj 0.3%
Ealing Central
2010 Con maj 7.9%
2015 Lab maj 0.5%
Enfield North
2010 Con maj 3.8%
2015 Lab maj 2.4%
Ilford North
2010 Con maj 11.5%
2015 Lab maj 1.2%
And its exactly Osborne's policies of increasing student tuition fees and increasing house prices which has so damaged the Conservatives among the young voters who are proportionally so important in London. Or indeed in places like Leamington.
The facts destroy your cheerleading.
Meanwhile it is those 'Blue Labour' voters who have kept the Conservatives in government. Perhaps you'd would be happy to lose them - too working class or too Northern for your taste maybe ? - and seats such as Stoke S, Walsall N, Mansfield, Derbyshire NE, Copeland, Middlesbrough S. Plus all the other seats dependent upon working class votes for the Conservatives.
And please do not include me in whoever you think 'your lot' refers to.
What lost it for the Conservatives was the disaster of the campaign - May's personal failings, dementia tax, not offering £350m for the NHS - plus the three failings I outlined down-thread which directly trace back to George Osborne:
1) Robbing the young
2) Not leading by example
3) Trashing Project Fear
I'll add another:
4) Austerity is for the many but not for the rich. Tax cuts for the rich and big business plus vanity projects for the rich such as HS2 while the incomes of millions stagnate and millions give up hope of owning a home. Hope was destroyed by unfairness and became despair and anger.
And if you want to look at lost seats start with those huge swings in student areas - they are a direct consequence of Osborne increasing tuition fees to £9k per year. Back in 2010 I told you all that was the wrong policy and would have disastrous consequences.
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Whilst it sounds good your penultimate sentence is why he would not do it under those terms. What could work might be most of the above on the Tories, stand still on all but security issues and events and form a cross party cabinet committee on brexit to ensure all viewpoints are representative. That way the Tories don't get tarnished by DUP association, it could all be concluded in 12 months and then go to the country to set a solid base for the future.kyf_100 said:
Morning all.TheScreamingEagles said:
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.Razedabode said:
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.alex. said:
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.
Like many of you, I'm coming to the conclusion that the longer May stays, the worse this looks for the Tories. And the deal with the DUP is utterly toxic.
The argument is that Corbyn is so dangerous he can't be allowed near the levers of power, but the longer this goes on, the more it looks like when an election is called, Labour will win with a majority of 100 rather than a majority of 10 (or a rainbow coalition).
Better to stand aside now than to send the party into a toxic spiral for the next five years that results in a 1997 style landslide for Labour.
Here's what I think should happen.
May should announce she is standing aside as leader but will continue as caretaker PM.
During this time the Tories should have a long leadership campaign. Months if necessary. Time to find a leader who actually stands FOR something, can set out some kind of positive vision, beyond the thin gruel of austerity so far promised.
And the big one. In the interim, Corbyn, and one or two other Labour people (Kier Starmer?) should be invited into the cabinet as part of a national unity government to last until Brexit negotiations are completed. A GE to happen the day after that.
You heard that right. Get Corbyn in the cabinet. Now. National unity government. It's the least toxic way forward for the Tories. Make the next two years all about Brexit. Everything else on hold.
If Corbyn refuses, he looks small minded and his legions of fans will be unable to understand why, when offered the chance to enter government, he refuses.
If he and other Labour people enter, they can be managed the way Clegg and others in Lib Dems were managed in coalition.
Cauterise the wound, now. Things will only get worse from here otherwise.0 -
It is already associated in Scotland, it will end in tears.williamglenn said:
And having unionism in Scotland so clearly associated with the whole thing would poison the well there too.MaxPB said:Was chatting to someone last night who is utterly opposed to our new pact with the DUP. He described it using "The Snake" and he thinks the DUP will absolutelyfuck us over in the long term and possibly even poison the well for unionism in NI.
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Would he have known about it? Wasn't the manifesto all a bit secret squirrel during writing?Scott_P said:May should never have sacked Osborne
He torpedoed Gordo's snap election with the Death Tax.
If May had included him, he would have torpedoed the Dementia Tax before it made it into the manifesto0 -
Good piece. I was out in poor parts of Erdington and it still seemed TCTC on the final day - I was still knocking on doors at 8pm and getting a poor response. I think we were very lucky that May's campaign was so bad.IanB2 said:
This from a guy in touch with voters for Labour every day is interesting, as anecdotal evidence that the swing came very late -rottenborough said:NickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)
It was woeful frankly. And deeply cynical.
Presumably the Tories also need a thorough review of their canvassing and data processes and internal focus grouping. Surely some of the swing back from them was being picked up and they would have changed tactics.
Or did it all happen in the last 24 hours?
I have no idea, although as I said yesterday, a family member told me that the mood at his West Midlands medium-sized business changed markedly the day after she failed to turn up to the main TV debate.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/09/i-phone-banked-for-four-weeks-but-picked-up-no-labour-surge-and-then-on-polling-day-there-it-was/
In hindsight the most important thing anyone said in the campaign was in the debate (helped by May's absence) was when Corbyn said his priority was to get the best deal for British workers in Brexit.0 -
Is the only joy from the last 48 hours I've experienced.AlastairMeeks said:Watching all the Brexiteers furious because they've found that there are other successful forms of crazy populism is very funny.
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The people I feel most sorry for now are the Blairites. They'll have to knuckle down and believe six impossible things before breakfast.
Uncle Jezza is a cuddly democrat who wants what's best for the UK, his advisors are there by merit, and Tony's achievements were hollow because he was a Tory. They'll have to describe him as a running dog to the capitalist hyena and mean it.
If they backtrack, they'll have a show trial with fifteen-year-olds as the jury. You Tories are lucky.
Hurrah for the NOTA party.
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Except, even is she kept him, none of the Cabinet were involved in the manifesto. Perhaps given his status he would have insisted on a veto on its contents.Scott_P said:May should never have sacked Osborne
He torpedoed Gordo's snap election with the Death Tax.
If May had included him, he would have torpedoed the Dementia Tax before it made it into the manifesto0 -
Mentally I have a backlog of articles to write. This theme is one of them.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks/Mr. P, are you really pleased that the far left has been emboldened and tightened its grip on Labour?
You think leaving the EU woeful, yet are gladdened and cheery about a second woe?
I can see why you might be pro-EU. I can't see why you're mirthful about the advance of the far left.
Mr. P, problem was that May's circle was too tight and, ultimately, she was too stupid to see how bad the policy was (and there were no lines to defend it, or attack the alternative).0 -
IHT. Not death tax, that was in 2010.Scott_P said:May should never have sacked Osborne
He torpedoed Gordo's snap election with the Death Tax.
If May had included him, he would have torpedoed the Dementia Tax before it made it into the manifesto0 -
Miss Girl, welcome to PB.com. I hope you stay de-lurked.0
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This is one of the big reasons why I will never vote Tory.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, no.
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That's my point. He should have remained a key member of the top campaign team.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Would he have known about it? Wasn't the manifesto all a bit secret squirrel during writing?
If you mean that the current chancellor didn't know about it either, then I take your point.0 -
Yes, no one knew about it except Hunt. Ridiculous.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Would he have known about it? Wasn't the manifesto all a bit secret squirrel during writing?Scott_P said:May should never have sacked Osborne
He torpedoed Gordo's snap election with the Death Tax.
If May had included him, he would have torpedoed the Dementia Tax before it made it into the manifesto0 -
Holy crap - if the AShcroft post vote survey is to belived (and I see no reason to disbelive it) then these are that charts that matter
How 2015 GE voters voted in EuRef
How 2017 GE voters voted in EuRef
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Even she cannot be that stupid , she has had her feet well and truly burnt and surely would not now stick her head in the oven. Only an idiot could even imagine a non Westminster nonentity could be introduced as speaking for Scotland. Your thinking does show the mentality of the extreme unionists in Scotland though and you are fine bedfellows for your partners.Scott_P said:@hholyroodmandy: An ultimate humiliation for @NicolaSturgeon would be for Theresa May to give @RuthDavidsonMSP seat at Brexit table 'speaking for Scotland'.
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Owen Paterson isn't even a minister. So it's basically just some random Tory MP chatting BS, then.
Phew. I seriously don't want to see us go backwards on abortion rights and LGBT rights because of the f*cking DUP. More glad than ever I voted for a left of centre party at this GE.0 -
Labout kept it's EU coalition together
Cons lost Remainers
Snp lost Leavers.0 -
Mrs May has to stay for the foreseeable future.
Mr Johnson seems to be the preferred choice to replace her on these pages, with victory assured it would seem.
An election in September/October 2016 with Mr Johnson as leader of the Conservatives would have been a walk in the park. He would have been straight off the back of 'his' 'VoteLeave' victory, just back from a fairly uncontroversial double term as London Mayor and at a time when Corbyn was still removing the knives from his back after a very damaging failed coup attempt. That was his moment and Mr Gove scuppered him.
Whereas once Mr Johnson's schoolboy pranks would have once got a hearty slap on the back, more and more people see them as being tiresome. He is after all Foreign Secretary, not a lower-sixth form japester. I cite reading Peston's notes as an example. Yes Corbyn remains a joke, but to fewer people than we had imagined.
For the time being, at least I see no shoo-in at an early election for any of the current crop of Tory generals.0 -
I said at the time that the Brexit campaign of sweeties for all was a bad ideaMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks/Mr. P, are you really pleased that the far left has been emboldened and tightened its grip on Labour?
That the campaign worked is a tragedy. That the proponents are outraged by other political movements aping the success, is a farce
Laughter is the appropriate response0 -
Another nutter, how do you work that one out with less than 20% of seats , andAlastairMeeks said:
That must surely be a no-brainer of a decision. The Scottish Conservatives now have an ample mandate for such a stunt.Scott_P said:@hholyroodmandy: An ultimate humiliation for @NicolaSturgeon would be for Theresa May to give @RuthDavidsonMSP seat at Brexit table 'speaking for Scotland'.
not in Government. Hard to believe you Tory nutjobs have not learned reality from the vote, still living in cloud cuckoo land.0 -
Tobe all pedantic:TheScreamingEagles said:
Capital gains tax. Not death tax, that was in 2010.Scott_P said:May should never have sacked Osborne
He torpedoed Gordo's snap election with the Death Tax.
If May had included him, he would have torpedoed the Dementia Tax before it made it into the manifesto
Actually, iirc Osborne torpedoed the idea of a snap election by Brown using IHT as a weapon.
Death tax, as a phrase, was used when there was discussion, cross-party, of an extra element of duty on all estates - 10% maybe. Burnham I think was running with this idea. This would have been for social care and was not related to IHT.
0 -
Yes. The only reason May is back in number 10 is because Scotland has saved her (I can't quite believe I'm writing that - what a realignment from just 10 years ago!) The Scottish Conservative position on Brexit must therefore be actively taken into account and respected.AlastairMeeks said:
That must surely be a no-brainer of a decision. The Scottish Conservatives now have an ample mandate for such a stunt.Scott_P said:@hholyroodmandy: An ultimate humiliation for @NicolaSturgeon would be for Theresa May to give @RuthDavidsonMSP seat at Brexit table 'speaking for Scotland'.
0 -
Hello and welcome!EssexGirl said:Hi, Delurking for a moment.
...
Anyway, in my view, for the Conservative party to stem further losses (and I am not party affiliated), I think May should go very soon and another election held. I don't believe Boris is the right person to lead the party; fighting big personality (Jeremy) with big personality will cause divisiveness. So why not someone like Dr Sarah Wollaston, she can be seen as stable and safe even though she is a newcomer, as, after all, who doesn't trust a doctor? She has a good background that will appeal to the working and middle class from both sides of the spectrum and can detoxify social care and NHS issues, campaigning to move the party back to a more caring centrist position. Her views on Brexit are an issue as a vocal remainer but if she can state she has accepted the referendum decision and now will represent the best interests of the country as we are leaving that could negate that somewhat. She might not win an election at this stage but could stem further losses and build the party's credibility for the next election.
I also think that Brexit does not have to take centre stage in the election, I honestly believe that out in the real world most accept it will occur and in what shape is really up to what comes up in negotiation. It takes 2 (or in this case 28) to make an agreement and if the EU are unreasonable in the extreme we would may accept a more hardline Brexit position. Perhaps that's just the Essex in me, over here we just get on with it and don't like prolonged agonising, we also don't take any crap.
BTW, I personally am more of a Priti Patel type person but think she is not the best media performer and can come across as a bit patronising at times. It's time for healing and conciliation (but with Brexit still please)!
Right, back to lurkdom....
I agree. Boris is divisive. He's also toxic to a huge swathe of the electorate because he's so associated with leave. But I presume Wollaston will be toxic with a huge swathe of her own party.
Detoxification is the right choice right now - but who can detoxify and how best to do it? I've already set out my case for a national unity government but since that's pretty unlikely to happen, the question becomes - who in the Conservative party is the least toxic?
You'd probably end up with Hammond, who is a John Major style nonentity in the eyes of the wider electorate. The fact that the Tories would struggle to put up a single other candidate who isn't seen as toxic tells you everything you need to know about the situation we're in right now.
The longer this goes on, the more everything and everyone associated with this administration will become utterly toxic.
Labour will legitimately be able to claim "vote Conservative and get a coalition of chaos led by far-right extremists!" next election. Delicious irony.0 -
Och, some of them will be fine with it.MaxPB said:
Yes he brought that up too. The resurgence of unionism in Scotland has been built in socially liberal foundations laid by a gay Tory leader. Getting in bed with the DUP takes that party backwards, this won't go unnoticed by our new supporters in Scotland.williamglenn said:
And having unionism in Scotland so clearly associated with the whole thing would poison the well there too.MaxPB said:Was chatting to someone last night who is utterly opposed to our new pact with the DUP. He described it using "The Snake" and he thinks the DUP will absolutelyfuck us over in the long term and possibly even poison the well for unionism in NI.
'Unionists launch homophobic attack on Glasgow gay councillor'
'Double blow: Tories suspend councillors in anti-Catholic and race bigotry scandal'
'Shut your whinging mouths' Scottish Tory candidate suspended over anti-Muslim rant'
'Scottish Tories engulfed in racism scandal with at least seven council candidates now in the spotlight'
0 -
That's a Tweet from a SNP sympathetic journalist.malcolmg said:
Even she cannot be that stupid , she has had her feet well and truly burnt and surely would not now stick her head in the oven. Only an idiot could even imagine a non Westminster nonentity could be introduced as speaking for Scotland. Your thinking does show the mentality of the extreme unionists in Scotland though and you are fine bedfellows for your partners.
Take your head out your arse for just a second before commenting0 -
I may have misunderstood but my impression was that it was a bit of surprise to everyone.Scott_P said:
That's my point. He should have remained a key member of the top campaign team.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Would he have known about it? Wasn't the manifesto all a bit secret squirrel during writing?
If you mean that the current chancellor didn't know about it either, then I take your point.0 -
Says that Ruth has been given assurances over gay rights (that's the power/clout she has these days after that result!) in regards to the deal with the DUP.
I expect we won't see any formal deal, just an agreement, supply and confidence sort of deal. We will have to give them probably some commitment to spending in NI on things like infrastructure.
I think it can work for a while.0 -
LOL, have they done something to the water down there, nutjobs abound.numbertwelve said:
Yes. The only reason May is back in number 10 is because Scotland has saved her (I can't quite believe I'm writing that - what a realignment from just 10 years ago!) The Scottish Conservative position on Brexit must therefore be actively taken into account and respected.AlastairMeeks said:
That must surely be a no-brainer of a decision. The Scottish Conservatives now have an ample mandate for such a stunt.Scott_P said:@hholyroodmandy: An ultimate humiliation for @NicolaSturgeon would be for Theresa May to give @RuthDavidsonMSP seat at Brexit table 'speaking for Scotland'.
0 -
Yes, welcome to EssexGirl.kyf_100 said:
Hello and welcome!EssexGirl said:Hi, Delurking for a moment.
...
Anyway, in my view, for the Conservative party to stem further losses (and I am not party affiliated), I think May should go very soon and another election held. I don't believe Boris is the right person to lead the party; fighting big personality (Jeremy) with big personality will cause divisiveness. So why not someone like Dr Sarah Wollaston, she can be seen as stable and safe even though she is a newcomer, as, after all, who doesn't trust a doctor? She has a good background that will appeal to the working and middle class from both sides of the spectrum and can detoxify social care and NHS issues, campaigning to move the party back to a more caring centrist position. Her views on Brexit are an issue as a vocal remainer but if she can state she has accepted the referendum decision and now will represent the best interests of the country as we are leaving that could negate that somewhat. She might not win an election at this stage but could stem further losses and build the party's credibility for the next election.
snip
BTW, I personally am more of a Priti Patel type person but think she is not the best media performer and can come across as a bit patronising at times. It's time for healing and conciliation (but with Brexit still please)!
Right, back to lurkdom....
I agree. Boris is divisive. He's also toxic to a huge swathe of the electorate because he's so associated with leave. But I presume Wollaston will be toxic with a huge swathe of her own party.
Detoxification is the right choice right now - but who can detoxify and how best to do it? I've already set out my case for a national unity government but since that's pretty unlikely to happen, the question becomes - who in the Conservative party is the least toxic?
You'd probably end up with Hammond, who is a John Major style nonentity in the eyes of the wider electorate. The fact that the Tories would struggle to put up a single other candidate who isn't seen as toxic tells you everything you need to know about the situation we're in right now.
The longer this goes on, the more everything and everyone associated with this administration will become utterly toxic.
Labour will legitimately be able to claim "vote Conservative and get a coalition of chaos led by far-right extremists!" next election. Delicious irony.
The irony is superb isn't it? From 'Strong and Stable' to May's very own 'Coalition of Choas'.
Boudicca to busted flush in four weeks.
0 -
Don't talk crap , it is from a thick stupid halfwit. A moron could see it would be wrong on all fronts and absolutely impossible to justify. The donkey is not leading anything other than the regional losers party office. Minority in Holyrood and minority in Westminster. She cannot speak for Scotland only for a MINORITY.Scott_P said:
That's a Tweet from a SNP sympathetic journalist.malcolmg said:
Even she cannot be that stupid , she has had her feet well and truly burnt and surely would not now stick her head in the oven. Only an idiot could even imagine a non Westminster nonentity could be introduced as speaking for Scotland. Your thinking does show the mentality of the extreme unionists in Scotland though and you are fine bedfellows for your partners.
Take your head out your arse for just a second before commenting0 -
Yes that will be like the assurances there would be no election , and the various other u turns. You numpties are easily pleased.jonny83 said:Says that Ruth has been given assurances over gay rights (that's the power she has these days after that result!) in regards to the deal with the DUP.
I expect we won't see any formal deal, just an agreement, supply and confidence sort of deal. We will have to give them probably some commitment to spending in NI on things like infrastructure.
I think it can work for a while.0 -
I also continue to be puzzled by the adoration of Osborne. He isn't the answer to the Tory party's problems. I think they are now in a period of decline aside from Scotland.another_richard said:
Perhaps you could explain why the Conservatives worst results in 2015 were in London then ?MaxPB said:
Reconnect the party with urban liberals that we've lost. Win back seats like Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central. Advance in Ealing, Enfield North. Win back seats like Leamington.another_richard said:
And what's the talented George Osborne going to do ?MaxPB said:
.
I'm personally not convinced by Boris, but I do think we need to take a gamble. If he brings in new talent (Kwarteng) and old (Gove, Osborne) then he could lead a strong government despite the fact that May fucked us with the minority.
Increase student tuition fees ?
Increase house prices ?
Increase pensions ?
Increase immigration ?
Increase borrowing for vanity projects ?
I keep asking the George Osborne cheerleaders this question but I never receive a reply.
You might loathe Osborne but he represents a part of the party and support base that we need to win. The current leadership abandoned them to chase Blue Labour voters and we lost our majority. I think a period of silence from your lot would do us all some good.
Lets take a look:
Enfield Southgate
2010 Con maj 17.2%
2015 Con maj 10.4%
Croydon Central
2010 Con maj 5.9%
2015 Con maj 0.3%
Ealing Central
2010 Con maj 7.9%
2015 Lab maj 0.5%
Enfield North
2010 Con maj 3.8%
2015 Lab maj 2.4%
Ilford North
2010 Con maj 11.5%
2015 Lab maj 1.2%
And it is Osborne's policies of increasing student tuition fees and increasing house prices which have so damaged the Conservatives among the young voters who are proportionally so important in London. Or indeed in places like Leamington.
The facts destroy your cheerleading.
Meanwhile it is those 'Blue Labour' voters who have kept the Conservatives in government. Perhaps you'd would be happy to lose them - too working class or too Northern for your taste maybe ? - and seats such as Stoke S, Walsall N, Mansfield, Derbyshire NE, Copeland, Middlesbrough S. Plus all the other seats dependent upon working class votes for the Conservatives.
And please do not include me in whoever you think 'your lot' refers to.
I only voted Tory in the end because It was a personal vote for an MP who is competent and actively involved in local issues.
May is hopeless and failed to capitalise on support in the North, Midlands and Wales. That has now gone and won't return. She let Corbyn get his foot in the door and he will charge through at the next opportunity.0 -
She's the managing editormalcolmg said:Don't talk crap , it is from a thick stupid halfwit.
http://www.holyrood.com
Your disdain for fellow Scots is the principle reason the SNP project is on the wane0 -
I agree, Corbyn wouldn't be stupid enough to walk into a huge bear trap like the lib dems.nichomar said:
Whilst it sounds good your penultimate sentence is why he would not do it under those terms. What could work might be most of the above on the Tories, stand still on all but security issues and events and form a cross party cabinet committee on brexit to ensure all viewpoints are representative. That way the Tories don't get tarnished by DUP association, it could all be concluded in 12 months and then go to the country to set a solid base for the future.kyf_100 said:
Here's what I think should happen.
May should announce she is standing aside as leader but will continue as caretaker PM.
During this time the Tories should have a long leadership campaign. Months if necessary. Time to find a leader who actually stands FOR something, can set out some kind of positive vision, beyond the thin gruel of austerity so far promised.
And the big one. In the interim, Corbyn, and one or two other Labour people (Kier Starmer?) should be invited into the cabinet as part of a national unity government to last until Brexit negotiations are completed. A GE to happen the day after that.
You heard that right. Get Corbyn in the cabinet. Now. National unity government. It's the least toxic way forward for the Tories. Make the next two years all about Brexit. Everything else on hold.
If Corbyn refuses, he looks small minded and his legions of fans will be unable to understand why, when offered the chance to enter government, he refuses.
If he and other Labour people enter, they can be managed the way Clegg and others in Lib Dems were managed in coalition.
Cauterise the wound, now. Things will only get worse from here otherwise.
I actually changed my language before posting, I originally said 'controlled the way the lib dems were', which I don't think would be the case this time. For starters, Labour are too big a party to be the junior member or be pushed around.
By managed, I mean you could get a situation where Labour could be near or even at the levers of power without the socialist terror some of the more right wing people here fear would be the case if they governed alone.
I think you'd probably have a situation where a national unity government would negotiate between the two parties then publish a manifesto of exactly what it planned to achieve in the next two years. Accomplish that together then election the day after.
It seems to me like the best way forward out of this mess.0 -
"nonentity"..... the saviour of the tory party, nation and my wallet. I think not!malcolmg said:
Even she cannot be that stupid , she has had her feet well and truly burnt and surely would not now stick her head in the oven. Only an idiot could even imagine a non Westminster nonentity could be introduced as speaking for Scotland. Your thinking does show the mentality of the extreme unionists in Scotland though and you are fine bedfellows for your partners.Scott_P said:@hholyroodmandy: An ultimate humiliation for @NicolaSturgeon would be for Theresa May to give @RuthDavidsonMSP seat at Brexit table 'speaking for Scotland'.
The obvious choice would presumably be to get Salmond or Robertson involved - they've got plenty of time to do so afterall.0 -
Yes, the best interpretation of this election in England and Wales is that it was anti-austerity and anti-hard brexit. The electorate has disagreed with the premise that no deal is better than a deal (and it will be a bad deal, we've voted down the only good deal, which was to remain).Scott_P said:
No, we also learned that voters agreed "no deal is better than a bad deal" was the jumped up bollocks we always knew it to beMarqueeMark said:The voters massively reaffirmed that Brexit means Brexit. The only thing we learned last the specifics during the election was that if the EU offered us the shittiest of shitty deals and refused to budge an inch, Corbyn would still have taken it.
Your vision of Brexit was put to the electorate, and they told you where to stick it0 -
Thanks.David_Evershed said:
The current system was to be exyteded to care at home - albeit with the £23,000 floor increased to £100,000 and the existing proposed £72,000 ceiling on contributions being re-considered.LucyJones said:david_kendrick1 said:The dementia tax was unpopular because of the impact on a man's ability to leave his house to his issue.
I think May, Hill and Timothy are all childless. Coincidence?
Bit of a moot point at this stage, but I have to say I am confused about the dementia tax and why it was worse than the current system. Right now, people already have to sell their homes to pay for care if they can't pay for it out of income or savings:david_kendrick1 said:The dementia tax was unpopular because of the impact on a man's ability to leave his house to his issue.
I think May, Hill and Timothy are all childless. Coincidence?
http://www.ageuk.org.uk/home-and-care/care-homes/the-means-test-and-your-property/
0 -
I am not and have never been anything to do with the SNP. The fact that a large portion of the Scottish population are thick numpties is there for anybody to see.Scott_P said:
She's the managing editormalcolmg said:Don't talk crap , it is from a thick stupid halfwit.
http://www.holyrood.com
Your disdain for fellow Scots is the principle reason the SNP project is on the wane
You are obviously looking forward to Labour running Scotland again , I am not.
Only consolation is that it will never be the Tories.
PS: Some day they may grow a backbone but I doubt I will see it given the amount of lickspittle fearties around at present, a shell of a country nowadays.0 -
I've been led to believe this guy is going to the Lords and will have a ministerial post there....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLiThrwEpyc0 -
Human? Arrogant, I'd say. Rudd seems much more human of late.MaxPB said:
As I said previously, if she dropped her support for the death penalty I think she'd be one of the front runners to replace May. She is smart, human, speaks well and can think quickly.MyBurningEars said:
Priti is superficially attractive (don't mean it that way) and I'm sure would give a lot of red meat to the Tory right. But I don't think she'll go down well with swing voters, once they've had a full blast from her. She has some very robust views e.g. on the death penalty, that don't just put people off because they think she might implement them (overall no Tory platform is going to bring back hanging and flogging, the party has moved way too far on) but because it makes people doubt her judgment, values and/or intelligence for believing them.MaxPB said:
Yes, he does have a way of putting some people off, but I think we'd win more than we'd lose, plus we'd win in key areas rather than build up votes in safe Labour seats.MyBurningEars said:
I don't disagree that he can reach across the divide. There are voters he can reach that the others can't - 52%, including many Labour voters, says a lot about that. The problem is that he is also toxic to some other voters. (@JosiasJessop on here being one example!) To strong Remainers, and/or those who see him as a bumbling incompetent toff, he is very seriously offputting. I think you could get away with him as a campaigner supporting someone else, but not as the main proposition you're asking people to vote for. I don't think he'd carry London now after his role in the Leave campaign.
(I did suggest a few threads that if the Tories want to make a positive statement with a leadership change, rather than one that looks like a post-defeat retreat, they should consider putting making someone smart, fresh-faced and forward-looking like Kwasi PM! But in reality I think it needs to be someone experienced in political chicanery and deal-making in the Commons, and a big enough beast to command respect from the Tory MPs / negotiators in Brussels.)
Kwasi needs a big role next time around, so does Priti Patel. We need to bring through the next generation of Tories. Hammond, May, Davis and a few others need to be pensioned off.0 -
Surely not - look to the North...TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the only joy from the last 48 hours I've experienced.AlastairMeeks said:Watching all the Brexiteers furious because they've found that there are other successful forms of crazy populism is very funny.
0 -
Edward Timpson will be just fineTheScreamingEagles said:
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.Razedabode said:
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.alex. said:
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.0 -
Nicola Blackwood?Charles said:
Edward Timpson will be just fineTheScreamingEagles said:
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.Razedabode said:
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.alex. said:
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.
0 -
As an aside it would give them all a chance to refill the war chest!kyf_100 said:
I agree, Corbyn wouldn't be stupid enough to walk into a huge bear trap like the lib dems.nichomar said:
Whilst it sounds good your penultimate sentence is why he would not do it under those terms. What could work might be most of the above on the Tories, stand still on all but security issues and events and form a cross party cabinet committee on brexit to ensure all viewpoints are representative. That way the Tories don't get tarnished by DUP association, it could all be concluded in 12 months and then go to the country to set a solid base for the future.kyf_100 said:
Here's what I think should happen.
May should announce she is standing aside as leader but will continue as caretaker PM.
During this time the Tories should have a long leadership campaign. Months if necessary. Time to find a leader who actually stands FOR something, can set out some kind of positive vision, beyond the thin gruel of austerity so far promised.
And the big one. In the interim, Corbyn, and one or two other Labour people (Kier Starmer?) should be invited into the cabinet as part of a national unity government to last until Brexit negotiations are completed. A GE to happen the day after that.
You heard that right. Get Corbyn in the cabinet. Now. National unity government. It's the least toxic way forward for the Tories. Make the next two years all about Brexit. Everything else on hold.
If Corbyn refuses, he looks small minded and his legions of fans will be unable to understand why, when offered the chance to enter government, he refuses.
If he and other Labour people enter, they can be managed the way Clegg and others in Lib Dems were managed in coalition.
Cauterise the wound, now. Things will only get worse from here otherwise.
I actually changed my language before posting, I originally said 'controlled the way the lib dems were', which I don't think would be the case this time. For starters, Labour are too big a party to be the junior member or be pushed around.
By managed, I mean you could get a situation where Labour could be near or even at the levers of power without the socialist terror some of the more right wing people here fear would be the case if they governed alone.
I think you'd probably have a situation where a national unity government would negotiate between the two parties then publish a manifesto of exactly what it planned to achieve in the next two years. Accomplish that together then election the day after.
It seems to me like the best way forward out of this mess.0 -
-
Morning all
Cheers Mr Herdson, an accurate and concise post on the pickle the government now finds itself in. Look forward to the next instalment on how a new PM will address these problems.
0 -
If its true that May and his team are all childless and thus saw nothing wrong with the 'dementia tax' then I wonder if things would have been different with Andrea Leadsom as PM.
Perhaps those PBers who were so critical of Leadson's "being a mother" line might now like to view their criticism in a different light ?
0 -
Also this decision to do a deal with the DUP is looking to be yet another own goal by May.
A Tory MP's speculation (Paterson/Abortion) is already leading to those on twitter having a meltdown, saying they are getting huge anxiety over him even saying *might*. LOL.
0 -
How is May going to solve the crisis in NI?malcolmg said:
Yes that will be like the assurances there would be no election , and the various other u turns. You numpties are easily pleased.jonny83 said:Says that Ruth has been given assurances over gay rights (that's the power she has these days after that result!) in regards to the deal with the DUP.
I expect we won't see any formal deal, just an agreement, supply and confidence sort of deal. We will have to give them probably some commitment to spending in NI on things like infrastructure.
I think it can work for a while.0 -
I posted this yesterday. Friend was on the blower from that area spitting feathers about Timpson losing and they aren't even natural Tory supporter, but thought he was a decent person and good constituency MP.TheScreamingEagles said:
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.Razedabode said:
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.alex. said:
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.
It is mighty impressive to piss people off so much that your candidate in a Brexit supporting area, who has had no scandal or said dinosaur-esque stuff, and family name has wide brand recognition as a good employer and lots of work for chairty manages to lose.0 -
Mr. Borough, people tend to forget that Boudicca's rebellion failed.
I think (could be wrong, not read of it for ages) that she was really just a figurehead for the likes of Caratacus and Togdumnus[sp].0 -
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are othersNickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)0 -
A Lab/Con coalition would be the best thing for the country. Involving minority parties in govt is always to be avoided. But the Tories would insist on a change of Labour leader, so it's not remotely possible. The idea of a cross-party Brexit team is very good though.0
-
........An unfunctioning government with a lame duck PM trying to navigate our way through Brexit when 48% of the country (including 75% of the business community 90% of the Service Sector and 65% of MPs) think the idea is barking......
Eureka!!!. Lets get rid of two of Theresa May's advisors!!
0 -
I have friends in Crewe who I know voted Labour. I suggest you lost many seats because public sector workers who work hard day and night to provide education, health and services for the common good and who might otherwise be natural Tory supporters have had enough of the Tory Government treating them like pariahs.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted this yesterday. Friend was on the blower from that area spitting feathers about Timpson losing and they aren't even natural Tory supporter, but thought he was a decent person and good constituency MP.TheScreamingEagles said:
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.Razedabode said:
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.alex. said:
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.
It is mighty impressive to piss people off so much that your candidate in a Brexit supporting area, who has had no scandal or said dinosaur-esque stuff, and family name has wide brand recognition as a good employer and lots of work for chairty manages to lose.0 -
Very little of this seems to have affected English safe seats. The Tory percentage vote increased from about 50-55 to 60%, e.g. inFrancisUrquhart said:
I posted this yesterday. Friend was on the blower from that area spitting feathers about Timpson losing and they aren't even natural Tory supporter, but thought he was a decent person and good constituency MP.TheScreamingEagles said:
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.Razedabode said:
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.alex. said:
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.
It is mighty impressive to piss people off so much that your candidate in a Brexit supporting area, who has had no scandal or said dinosaur-esque stuff, and family name has wide brand recognition as a good employer and lots of work for chairty manages to lose.
North Shropshire
Ludlow
North Herefordshire
Mole Valley
Surrey Heath
The first area is Leave, the second is Remain.0 -
Charles IIRC you're based in Kensington - I remember you saying you had voted against Borwick when she was selected to replace Rifkind.Charles said:
Edward Timpson will be just fineTheScreamingEagles said:
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.Razedabode said:
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.alex. said:
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.
If so it pains me to think of you living in a Labour constituency. Might I suggest a relocation:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^906&maxPrice=60000&includeSSTC=false0 -
Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it.Charles said:
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are othersNickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)0 -
Yes, with a better leader and no attack on property rights Kensington, Canterbury and a few others will swing back fairly easily.Charles said:
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are othersNickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)0 -
Bollocks.another_richard said:If its true that May and his team are all childless and thus saw nothing wrong with the 'dementia tax' then I wonder if things would have been different with Andrea Leadsom as PM.
Perhaps those PBers who were so critical of Leadson's "being a mother" line might now like to view their criticism in a different light ?
I believe Ruth Davidson is childless and she knows how to come up with successful policies.
By your logic, the most qualified person to be Prime Minister is Mick Phillpot0 -
I think you can reinvent yourself in politics but it is bloody difficult. Some time away from the fray may do Osorne's public image some good (as it has for Ed Balls or Michael Portillo, though neither of them seem set to return to politics - a waste of talent in Ed's case, and as Brexiteer I had hoped Portillo would come back to front the Leave campaign which I was afraid at the time was a one-chance-in-a-lifetime that we were about to lose). But to reinvent yourself you really need to go on "a journey". Osborne seems far too smug to do that, though that's obviously only my impression of the man.IanB2 said:
+1. Politics, unlike most endeavours, is unusually cruel in that it is impossible to "re-invent" yourself. Politicians are stuck with the image they earn, and cannot change it however hard they try. Cf. one newly unemployed former MP from Sheffield.MyBurningEars said:
TSE
I know you like Osborne personally (in-person we are often told he is far more likeable than his public persona!), you agree with his economic and political philosophy and the direction he wanted the Tory party to move in, and you also think he's talented on the strategic side.
Do you think he would have been able to "front" the party and win an election as Prime Minister? Or could he only have done the business as a right-hand man?
The guy is the face of austerity and is hated, viscerally, by many people the party could do with attracting (public sector workers, people on benefits or with disabled family members etc) while his metropolitanism may not have enthused shire Tories. There's a reason he was booed at the Olympics. There are people I know who are potential Tory voters but detest him with a fervour even worse than what I've seen for other political hate figures.
Do you think he could have detoxed himself with these voters, that they might have warmed to him if they saw more of his natural personality? (I know he was having a go, and the haircut was an improvement, but it takes a bit more than that!) Or that they would in the end have voted for perceived competence even if they didn't like him personally? Or that you'd have to sacrifice these votes, but would make gains elsewhere under Osborne (e.g. if the Northern Powerhouse attracted northern voters)?
For me, I struggle to see how he could have won as PM, but then my view is clouded - Osborne was the main reason that I didn't consider voting Conservative even back in 2010, and several people I know were likewise. (I seem to recall Tim late of this parish thought that Cameron might have won a majority in 2010 if he had had a more palatable shadow chancellor - I don't know whether that's true, but I'm sure it would have shifted some votes.) I don't hate Osborne like many people I know do. But I still may not be seeing the positive qualities in him as others in the country do.0 -
Mr. Charles, I've read both that 1,700 votes the other way would've given May a majority, and 2,700 the other way would've led to PM Corbyn (presumably in coalition).
Next election I might stick to betting on minor parties. As with 2015, the polling for them was rather more accurate.
Ms. Apocalypse, own goal is excessively polite. It's unnecessary and insane, and should be cancelled [although I am wryly observing those entirely content with Corbyn's IRA-sympathising suddenly deciding that the DUP is unacceptable].0 -
Well indeed. In fact if you look at the Labour manifesto, there are a lot of similarities of approach on the detail with the Conservative approach. For example an end to freedom of movement was (eventually) a commitment of Labour too. One of the main point of differences is the unequivocal Labour commitment to retaining existing EU employment, consumer and environmental protections, but by retaining the level playing field of the social market that would surely make a deal easier not harder to reach.archer101au said:I am utterly confused. This is exactly the same as the Tory plan. If there is no FOM, there is no EEA, therefore there needs to be a deal outside of the SM and Customs Union. Which is what May is doing.
This all sounds wonderful, apart from the bit where the EU foist unreasonable conditions that make such a deal impossible.
There is simply NO point in going on about how there 'has' to be a deal when the only way to assure a 'deal' is to accept terms that are potentially completely unreasonable.SouthamObserver said:Brexit from here should be cross-party and based on this:
http://www.britishfuture.org/articles/news/leave-and-remain-voices-back-shared-vision-for-how-uk-can-brexit-together/
So the main barrier to a deal is not the ability of the UK to offer reasonable terms, but the desire of the EU bureaucracy to ensure that the UK is punished for Brexit, regardless of the damage that is done to EU export markets as a consequence. The question of whether a deal is reached is not the terms offered by the UK but whether the EU bureaucracy can get away with resisting one for political reasons that are contrary to the economic interests of its nation states.0 -
I think having no empathy and not having their own kids was definitely a factor.TheScreamingEagles said:
Bollocks.another_richard said:If its true that May and his team are all childless and thus saw nothing wrong with the 'dementia tax' then I wonder if things would have been different with Andrea Leadsom as PM.
Perhaps those PBers who were so critical of Leadson's "being a mother" line might now like to view their criticism in a different light ?
I believe Ruth Davidson is childless and she knows how to come up with successful policies.
By your logic, the most qualified person to be Prime Minister is Mick Phillpot0 -
I'm sure he will be.Charles said:
Edward Timpson will be just fineTheScreamingEagles said:
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.Razedabode said:
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.alex. said:
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.
It's the Tory Party that might not be fine is the bigger issue.0 -
Side note: political reinvention also takes time. It strikes me that modern political careers seem shorter than half a century ago which leaves less scope for transformation. Perhaps modern political careers are too short - though we seem to accumulate a lot of dead wood on back benches who can spend 3 decades doing nothing, a lot of talented people only seem to last a couple of years in the limelight. I'd rather more of the talented ones had the longevity of Ken Clarke and that the lobby fodder had a higher turnover so we could find fresh talent...0
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If Labour offers an end to tuition fees and the Conservatives support them then urban middle class areas wont get easier to win for the Conservatives.MaxPB said:
Yes, with a better leader and no attack on property rights Kensington, Canterbury and a few others will swing back fairly easily.Charles said:
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are othersNickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)
Likewise if home ownership continues to fall in middle class urban areas.0 -
This is true. Labour had a number of factors helping them out this time round that may not be there next time. That's why they need to work hard to build a broad coalition of support and get all of the PLP pulling in the same direction.Charles said:
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are othersNickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)0 -
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Bollocks.another_richard said:If its true that May and his team are all childless and thus saw nothing wrong with the 'dementia tax' then I wonder if things would have been different with Andrea Leadsom as PM.
Perhaps those PBers who were so critical of Leadson's "being a mother" line might now like to view their criticism in a different light ?
I believe Ruth Davidson is childless and she knows how to come up with successful policies.
By your logic, the most qualified person to be Prime Minister is Mick Phillpot
0 -
That too. Always nice when a 20/1 bet and tip come off.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Surely not - look to the North...TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the only joy from the last 48 hours I've experienced.AlastairMeeks said:Watching all the Brexiteers furious because they've found that there are other successful forms of crazy populism is very funny.
0 -
Canterbury maybe, but London is and will continue to swing for Labour. Tories will be left with a handful of seats around the periphery.MaxPB said:
Yes, with a better leader and no attack on property rights Kensington, Canterbury and a few others will swing back fairly easily.Charles said:
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are othersNickPalmer said:
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.rottenborough said:
Where was the attack on the economy?
Where was the focus on Labour's policies?
Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)0 -
so youre 21 and a bloke walks up to you and says put a cross in this box and you can have £27kScott_P said:
I said at the time that the Brexit campaign of sweeties for all was a bad ideaMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks/Mr. P, are you really pleased that the far left has been emboldened and tightened its grip on Labour?
That the campaign worked is a tragedy. That the proponents are outraged by other political movements aping the success, is a farce
Laughter is the appropriate response
what would you do ?0
