politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the party down 10 points in its latest poll
With just six days to go the news this morning has been dreadful for TMay and her CON party. First we had confirmation from the Crown Prosecution Service that three people are to face charges over party expenses at Thanet south at GE2015.
Comments
-
First (albeit some to be deleted as spoilt knowing TSE).0
-
Second like May.0
-
It wasn't declared.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, why not? It has to be declared, and the donor has to be on the electoral roll (but not necessariy in the same constituency).TravelJunkie said:Election Expenses.
I know someone who gave £10,000 to an mps campaign in 2015 (not in south thanet) to a tory mp to stop ukip getting in. When I heard this, I was certain, but said nothing, that this broke election law.
Can a constituent living in a seat give £10,000 to an mp?0 -
She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?0 -
Tories in Freefall. Jez we apparently can.0
-
Isn't it the share that matters, not the lead?0
-
Theresa May will be elected PM but like Neill said to Gove her career is shot and the tories will replace her before the next election.
Most of my Tory friends want May to go after the election.0 -
Except of course they are not in freefall at all. Their vote share has hardly changed.RochdalePioneers said:Tories in Freefall. Jez we apparently can.
So no, you can't.0 -
Yes, but momentum is important in politics.AndyJS said:Isn't it the share that matters, not the lead?
It is very possible that there will be a huge swing back to Tories in last 48 hours as the reality of Jezza as PM sinks in, but I 'aint banking on that now.0 -
Tory share is about average in this poll. Labour are successfully hoovering up LD and Green support it seems.RochdalePioneers said:Tories in Freefall. Jez we apparently can.
0 -
The headline is surely wrong. Isn't it the lead that's down by 10?0
-
0
-
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
0 -
Well Tories done 4% in this poll.Richard_Tyndall said:
Except of course they are not in freefall at all. Their vote share has hardly changed.RochdalePioneers said:Tories in Freefall. Jez we apparently can.
So no, you can't.0 -
If she goes Boris will get the gig, not sure that will please everyoneTravelJunkie said:Theresa May will be elected PM but like Neill said to Gove her career is shot and the tories will replace her before the next election.
Most of my Tory friends want May to go after the election.
0 -
-
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?0 -
I think pollsters should work with the data rather than giving personal opinions about what the data should say.TheScreamingEagles said:Trust Martin.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/8705918701367255040 -
-
One explanation for the Labour share being so high is that in the 1990s the turnout in many safe Lab seats collapsed from an average of about 70% to around 55% and hasn't really ever recovered since. It could be that Corbyn is once again enthusing the voters in those seats and turnout could be back up to 70% again. It would have a significant effect on Labour's vote share but it wouldn't win them many seats. Most of the Merseyside constituencies are good examples of this but it also applies in Tyne&Wear, Manchester, Sheffield and many other areas.0
-
Can someone sedate SeanT in advance.0
-
I'd vote for Boris to be PM. I would never vote for May. Boris would crush corbyn.AlsoIndigo said:
If she goes Boris will get the gig, not sure that will please everyoneTravelJunkie said:Theresa May will be elected PM but like Neill said to Gove her career is shot and the tories will replace her before the next election.
Most of my Tory friends want May to go after the election.0 -
The Brexit deal goes through the Commons because Theresa May won a mandate for her Brexit plan. It is how Tony Blair did it. The whips point to page 17 of the manifesto and remind the recalcitrant member that he was was duly elected to send small boys up chimneys.TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Except there is no commitment or plan or vision so there can be no mandate. The fun starts on the ninth.0 -
My prediction is 70/80 majority.0
-
Blair scored 43% in 1997, to put things in proportion, though that was an age of thee-party politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
Except of course they are not in freefall at all. Their vote share has hardly changed.RochdalePioneers said:Tories in Freefall. Jez we apparently can.
So no, you can't.
Where is Uttermost Peak Tory? Mid to high 40s, I would have thought? (Based on adding historical Tory vote shares to some "allocated" part of the UKIP, and to a lesser extent, Lib Dem vote.)
There's lots of tribal voters, public sector /creative workers and so on who would never go Tory. I think 45% would be an excellent result for them though the momentum should obviously be concerning. In dreamland they could be touching 50%, but can that seriously be a minimum expectation for an "acceptable" performance?
For me the more interesting thing is Lab reaching 40. They are either bringing new voters into play, or Jez is gobbling up votes from other parties. In what proportions and who is being eaten into?0 -
No, she's not. She's one week away from significantly increasing her majority, extending her term in office and avoiding a dangerous deadline on Brexit negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Woods. Trees.
0 -
I like pollsters putting their heads above the parapet.DanSmith said:
I think pollsters should work with the data rather than giving personal opinions about what the data should say.TheScreamingEagles said:Trust Martin.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/8705918701367255040 -
Exactly.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
I doubt Brown would have allowed the social care policy to slip into his manifesto without having focus grouped it to death either.0 -
It's quite plausible that Jez is soaring in Sefton and sinking in ScunthorpeAndyJS said:One explanation for the Labour share being so high is that in the 1990s the turnout in many safe Labour seats collapsed from an average of about 70% to around 55% and hasn't really ever recovered since. It could be that Corbyn is once again enthusing the voters in those seats and turnout could be back up to 70% again. It would have a significant effect on Labour's vote share but it wouldn't win them many seats. Most of the Merseyside seats are good examples of this.
0 -
First we said Never mind the lead, look at the vote shareTheScreamingEagles said:
Then we said Never mind the vote share, see the best PM rating
Now we say Never mind the the best PM rating share, look at the lead
We are running out of things to say.0 -
Where is the evidence for that please?tim80 said:
No, she's not. She's one week away from significantly increasing her majority, extending her term in office and avoiding a dangerous deadline on Brexit negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Woods. Trees.0 -
I think she was always going to stand down before the next GE in 2021/22, even before this clusterfuck of a campaign.TravelJunkie said:Theresa May will be elected PM but like Neill said to Gove her career is shot and the tories will replace her before the next election.
Most of my Tory friends want May to go after the election.0 -
She'll increase her majority whilst trashing her reputation.tim80 said:
No, she's not. She's one week away from significantly increasing her majority, extending her term in office and avoiding a dangerous deadline on Brexit negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Woods. Trees.
To quote Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, destroying an empire to win a war is no victory.0 -
What's intersting is that the Tories seem very solid in the mid 40s - having unsplit the right. It's Labour that is gobbling up the lefty share - apparently unsplitting the left. LDs, Greens, UKIP, all the minor parties are a waste of time now.
I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.0 -
Labour lead by 3 in that IpsosMORI before turnout filters are applied.0
-
That is a very good point. Bet365 offering 10/1 on over 70%.AndyJS said:One explanation for the Labour share being so high is that in the 1990s the turnout in many safe Lab seats collapsed from an average of about 70% to around 55% and hasn't really ever recovered since. It could be that Corbyn is once again enthusing the voters in those seats and turnout could be back up to 70% again. It would have a significant effect on Labour's vote share but it wouldn't win them many seats. Most of the Merseyside constituencies are good examples of this but it also applies in Tyne&Wear, Manchester, Sheffield and many other areas.
0 -
We went from canvass reports of anti Corbyn, never heard anything like it since 97 etc etc to Labour on 40 in 3 weeks?
Colour me skeptical. Something very very strange is happening. Have the non voters woken up en masse? Could they.... will they turn Out?0 -
Perhaps by trashing her reputation amongst the Westminster bubble who don't understand the difference between substance and process, and have called incorrectly every major political development in the last 3 years. I'm sure she'll live with that.TheScreamingEagles said:
She'll increase her majority whilst trashing her reputation.tim80 said:
No, she's not. She's one week away from significantly increasing her majority, extending her term in office and avoiding a dangerous deadline on Brexit negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Woods. Trees.
To quote Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, destroying an empire to win a war is no victory.
0 -
Link please.DanSmith said:Labour lead by 3 in that IpsosMORI before turnout filters are applied.
0 -
Thats what I don't understand. She wasn't forced into the election. she chose it. She had the luxuary of fine-tuning and testing any policies to death.rottenborough said:
Exactly.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
I doubt Brown would have allowed the social care policy to slip into his manifesto without having focus grouped it to death either.
Sounds like she just woke up one morning, and thought 'lets have an election' without anyone knowing. Which is crazy.0 -
Got an email from Theresa May this morning. In the subject header:
"I need you to do this one thing for me"
Sounds desperate, and a bit creepy!
0 -
Most definitely.Patrick said:What's intersting is that the Tories seem very solid in the mid 40s - having unsplit the right. It's Labour that is gobbling up the lefty share - apparently unsplitting the left. LDs, Greens, UKIP, all the minor parties are a waste of time now.
I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.
I'd love to hear from the following:
1. Someone part of the Tory camapign. Is there panic or confidence?
2. Anyone knocking in a Midlands/Northern marginal. Have things really changed that much in 2/3 weeks?0 -
The Conservative campaign and manifesto has been bad, but surely not bad enough to see Labour poll 40%? Right?!0
-
Squeaky mum time for the Tories.0
-
Well, the Brexit negotiations would stall until the Europeans could manage to stop laughing....AlsoIndigo said:
If she goes Boris will get the gig, not sure that will please everyoneTravelJunkie said:Theresa May will be elected PM but like Neill said to Gove her career is shot and the tories will replace her before the next election.
Most of my Tory friends want May to go after the election.-1 -
The polls, ironically.GideonWise said:
Where is the evidence for that please?tim80 said:
No, she's not. She's one week away from significantly increasing her majority, extending her term in office and avoiding a dangerous deadline on Brexit negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Woods. Trees.0 -
What is really bizzare to me is as this corbyasm has ramped up, Tories don't seem to do anything in response. Either they haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe it.
You would think that they would have every known popular Tory on the media round the clock with some form of attack. Even the Tory friendly media haven't really been fed attack stories, mail yesterday was how biased the bbc is and today telegraph about to waiting times. The first won't shift a vote and the second is bad for the government.0 -
https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/870598290659844096TheScreamingEagles said:
Link please.DanSmith said:Labour lead by 3 in that IpsosMORI before turnout filters are applied.
0 -
yep, good point, just looking at swansea east turnoutAndyJS said:One explanation for the Labour share being so high is that in the 1990s the turnout in many safe Lab seats collapsed from an average of about 70% to around 55% and hasn't really ever recovered since. It could be that Corbyn is once again enthusing the voters in those seats and turnout could be back up to 70% again. It would have a significant effect on Labour's vote share but it wouldn't win them many seats. Most of the Merseyside constituencies are good examples of this but it also applies in Tyne&Wear, Manchester, Sheffield and many other areas.
75% in 1992, (labour 70%)
58% in 2015, (labour 53%)0 -
Assume a massive polling debacle, what sort of result would you say vindicated May?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll increase her majority whilst trashing her reputation.
To quote Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, destroying an empire to win a war is no victory.
0 -
By all accounts Labour MPs were being selective in which canvass reports they gave publicity to.dyedwoolie said:We went from canvass reports of anti Corbyn, never heard anything like it since 97 etc etc to Labour on 40 in 3 weeks?
Colour me skeptical. Something very very strange is happening. Have the non voters woken up en masse? Could they.... will they turn Out?0 -
Mike's theory that she called the snap election because she was worried about lots of CPS charges makes sense.Slackbladder said:
Thats what I don't understand. She wasn't forced into the election. she chose it. She had the luxuary of fine-tuning and testing any policies to death.rottenborough said:
Exactly.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
I doubt Brown would have allowed the social care policy to slip into his manifesto without having focus grouped it to death either.
Sounds like she just woke up one morning, and thought 'lets have an election' without anyone knowing. Which is crazy.0 -
I got one of those. What's really creepy is the repeated use of your given name.KentRising said:Got an email from Theresa May this morning. In the subject header:
"I need you to do this one thing for me"
Sounds desperate, and a bit creepy!0 -
Something IS happening. Check out the news, social media, vox pops, Corbyn's body language, May's body language etc etc..dyedwoolie said:We went from canvass reports of anti Corbyn, never heard anything like it since 97 etc etc to Labour on 40 in 3 weeks?
Colour me skeptical. Something very very strange is happening. Have the non voters woken up en masse? Could they.... will they turn Out?
There is a surge going on and this election will go to the wire.
TMay needs to actually start campaigning hard and offer up something to the public that makes them want to vote Tory. It can't be all fucking negative.
0 -
Two weeks ago this place was sceptical of Labour reaching 30%. Life comes at you fast these days.jonny83 said:The Conservative campaign and manifesto has been bad, but surely not bad enough to see Labour poll 40%? Right?!
0 -
Ms. Momentum can shove a couple of benzos up before she pegs him. That should do it.TheScreamingEagles said:Can someone sedate SeanT in advance.
0 -
I imagine his first policy announcement would be and increase in NHS spending of 18.2 billion per year by 2022 (inflation would probably cover that anyway).TravelJunkie said:
I'd vote for Boris to be PM. I would never vote for May. Boris would crush corbyn.AlsoIndigo said:
If she goes Boris will get the gig, not sure that will please everyoneTravelJunkie said:Theresa May will be elected PM but like Neill said to Gove her career is shot and the tories will replace her before the next election.
Most of my Tory friends want May to go after the election.
A little bit of showmanship. People like it.0 -
If those recent swings in sentiment have occurred, are the explanations for the change plausible? I also wonder what proportion of the electorate have posted their votes in by now.dyedwoolie said:We went from canvass reports of anti Corbyn, never heard anything like it since 97 etc etc to Labour on 40 in 3 weeks?
Colour me skeptical. Something very very strange is happening. Have the non voters woken up en masse? Could they.... will they turn Out?0 -
And London.AndyJS said:One explanation for the Labour share being so high is that in the 1990s the turnout in many safe Lab seats collapsed from an average of about 70% to around 55% and hasn't really ever recovered since. It could be that Corbyn is once again enthusing the voters in those seats and turnout could be back up to 70% again. It would have a significant effect on Labour's vote share but it wouldn't win them many seats. Most of the Merseyside constituencies are good examples of this but it also applies in Tyne&Wear, Manchester, Sheffield and many other areas.
0 -
Can people stop mentioning him?TheScreamingEagles said:Can someone sedate SeanT in advance.
0 -
Since being a picture of health in her Lancaster House speech she's seemed increasingly panicked and unhinged ever since. I think it's just the pressure of Brexit. She thought a thumping majority would be easy to get and would put her on the front foot in Brussels.Slackbladder said:
Thats what I don't understand. She wasn't forced into the election. she chose it. She had the luxuary of fine-tuning and testing any policies to death.rottenborough said:
Exactly.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
I doubt Brown would have allowed the social care policy to slip into his manifesto without having focus grouped it to death either.
Sounds like she just woke up one morning, and thought 'lets have an election' without anyone knowing. Which is crazy.0 -
There doesn't seem to be any grid. What is going on at CCHQ? Tumbleweed?FrancisUrquhart said:What is really bizzare to me is as this corbyasm has ramped up, Tories don't seem to do anything in response. Either they haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe it.
You would think that they would have every known popular Tory on the media round the clock with some form of attack. Even the Tory friendly media haven't really been fed attack stories, mail yesterday was how biased the bbc is and today telegraph about to waiting times. The first won't shift a vote and the second is bad for the government.
They have completely ceded the ground and the spotlight to Labour from day one of this campaign. The Tories are nowhere to be seen. They've no-showed at their own party. It's a miracle the polls have them in the 40s.0 -
Tory MPs consider an 80 seat majority par, so anything above that.glw said:
Assume a massive polling debacle, what sort of result would you say vindicated May?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll increase her majority whilst trashing her reputation.
To quote Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, destroying an empire to win a war is no victory.0 -
Sharon Hodgson @SharonHodgsonMP
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.0 -
The closing of the polls will ensure the conservative vote votes and the result will depend on just how likely the 40% labour do actually vote0
-
Agreed. She is doing what she needs to do, ie freeing herself from the shackles of a duff 2015 manifesto and getting the house in order for Brexit.tim80 said:
No, she's not. She's one week away from significantly increasing her majority, extending her term in office and avoiding a dangerous deadline on Brexit negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Woods. Trees.
I'm predicting a comfortable majority and panic over.
I still won't vote for her, but I won't be endorsing labour and their absurd robin hood populism. The voter suppression worked!0 -
Early 20s with debts? I know people in their 30s with them.Slackbladder said:Sharon Hodgson @SharonHodgsonMP
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.0 -
This is the most interesting factor to my mind - as far as we can see absolutely nothing has changed. The Conservatives are either keeping schtum about a change in the mood or they are finding it very different on the ground.Brom said:
Most definitely.Patrick said:What's intersting is that the Tories seem very solid in the mid 40s - having unsplit the right. It's Labour that is gobbling up the lefty share - apparently unsplitting the left. LDs, Greens, UKIP, all the minor parties are a waste of time now.
I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.
I'd love to hear from the following:
1. Someone part of the Tory camapign. Is there panic or confidence?
2. Anyone knocking in a Midlands/Northern marginal. Have things really changed that much in 2/3 weeks?
Somebody is about to become a cropper either way.
I am voting Conservative myself but this is utterly fascinating now.0 -
It does sound as if Ms Momentum is on top!Dura_Ace said:
Ms. Momentum can shove a couple of benzos up before she pegs him. That should do it.TheScreamingEagles said:Can someone sedate SeanT in advance.
0 -
A lot of "satisfaction with leader" responses are about who is doing well, not whether people like them. It's perfectly obvious that Corbyn is doing well in the campaign and May is not - almost nobody here really disputes it. He's overcome what everyone recognises is a tidal wave of derision and hostility from the media, the Tories and many in his own party and continues to campaign with calm, friendly optimism. At a personal level I think it's terrific and an example of how to deal with adversity.dr_spyn said:
The key point, though, is that Corbyn is not the drag on Labour ratings that the Tories expected and based their strategy on. I think that a lot of people feel that politics under May is just a grim slog and voting Labour is voting for a bit of positivity and hope. The Tory message that it's a terrible risk is just not cutting through - it's actually reinforcing the sense that the Tories are all doom and gloom.
And Ipsos-Mori, like ICM, does weight by past voting, doesn't it?0 -
I said the other day I was told focus groups/polling found middle class parents love this policy.Slackbladder said:Sharon Hodgson @SharonHodgsonMP
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.0 -
Looks like reminding people of the ,,1980 s does not work for everyone in fifties.GideonWise said:
Something IS happening. Check out the news, social media, vox pops, Corbyn's body language, May's body language etc etc..dyedwoolie said:We went from canvass reports of anti Corbyn, never heard anything like it since 97 etc etc to Labour on 40 in 3 weeks?
Colour me skeptical. Something very very strange is happening. Have the non voters woken up en masse? Could they.... will they turn Out?
There is a surge going on and this election will go to the wire.
TMay needs to actually start campaigning hard and offer up something to the public that makes them want to vote Tory. It can't be all fucking negative.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
She'll increase her majority whilst trashing her reputation.tim80 said:
No, she's not. She's one week away from significantly increasing her majority, extending her term in office and avoiding a dangerous deadline on Brexit negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Woods. Trees.
To quote Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, destroying an empire to win a war is no victory.
What's remarkable is that her incompetent campaign will probably increase her majority but destroy her credibility in negotiating with the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
She'll increase her majority whilst trashing her reputation.tim80 said:
No, she's not. She's one week away from significantly increasing her majority, extending her term in office and avoiding a dangerous deadline on Brexit negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
Woods. Trees.
To quote Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, destroying an empire to win a war is no victory.
Far better to have not geld the election but simply held the threat of her massive opinion poll leads over the EU.
0 -
As someone with a 1st in mathematics at a top redbrick university I disagree with you.AndyJS said:One explanation for the Labour share being so high is that in the 1990s the turnout in many safe Labour seats collapsed from an average of about 70% to around 55% and hasn't really ever recovered since. It could be that Corbyn is once again enthusing the voters in those seats and turnout could be back up to 70% again. It would have a significant effect on Labour's vote share but it wouldn't win them many seats. Most of the Merseyside seats are good examples of this.
Reading your posts, you seem to be very bullish about conservative prospects and very bearish towards labour. I haven't seen one negative post about conservative polling and you seem to be of the belief that the polls are wrong.
1) In Tory wards turnout was 85% in 2015. Labour ward turnout was 45-50%. Had Labour turnout been similar, the tories would have lost 28 seats in the midlands/northern england. Tory enthusiasm is down compared to 2015, labour enthusiasm is up.
2) 3/4 labour voters in the midlands/northern england are ex-labour voters. There is no evidence now that these same UKIP voters are voting heavily for conservative.
3) There are a lot of seats where the tory vote has a very low ceiling. Plymouth, Southampton, Walsall, Stoke, Weaver Vale, Carlisle and any increase in vote enthusiasm could easily see a labour gain. As mentioned on the conservative home website, the tories are campaigning in labour areas they haven't done so in decades and its ok getting 2-3k votes for council elections but to get to 20k to win a seat is very, very hard. The labour vote is not going to down. There aren't enough seats like Tamworth, Burton that are moving away from Labour.0 -
I'll be f***** ing pissed as I responsibily paid off mine early (although I would have probably paid it all by now)KentRising said:
Early 20s with debts? I know people in their 30s with them.Slackbladder said:Sharon Hodgson @SharonHodgsonMP
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.0 -
Labour 3 ahead and matching the Blair landslide of 97 % in all naming a party.
Wow. He's gonna do this.0 -
Perhaps I should start learning the 'The Red Flag' lyrics, in preparation for when I will have to sing it every day.0
-
And yet how much more can she increase the vote share.FrancisUrquhart said:What is really bizzare to me is as this corbyasm has ramped up, Tories don't seem to do anything in response. Either they haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe it.
You would think that they would have every known popular Tory on the media round the clock with some form of attack. Even the Tory friendly media haven't really been fed attack stories, mail yesterday was how biased the bbc is and today telegraph about to waiting times. The first won't shift a vote and the second is bad for the government.
The reality is the collapse of the left into labour and if they vote then goodness knows what will happen0 -
Labour never advertise that they will do anything that might detract from their popularity before an election in a manifesto. That is why despite winning a 179 majority Blair did very little apart from setting up devolved administrations.rottenborough said:
Exactly.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making Gordon Brown look like a master strategistrottenborough said:
Is it time to reappraise Gordon Brown's decision to back-out of an early election when he became PM?TheScreamingEagles said:She'll be gone within a year if this is the result
Smaller majority and how the heck does she get a Brexit deal through the commons?
I doubt Brown would have allowed the social care policy to slip into his manifesto without having focus grouped it to death either.
May has certainly made a mistake with the dementia tax but it asks the question: why do people say that they do not like dishonest politicians, yet when one has the temerity to say things cannot go on like this (i.e. the truth they don't like it?
I still think the Tories will romp it and I don't buy into the national debate changing much around the margins. Look at Gordon Brown in 2010, he was down to 22% after duffygate in the polls for Labour yet they polled 30%. The Lib Dems were the other way around polling 30% yet achieving only 24%.0 -
Fox jr has already voted, but would love that!Slackbladder said:Sharon Hodgson @SharonHodgsonMP
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.-1 -
I love a free lunch too, but they're never free.TheScreamingEagles said:
I said the other day I was told focus groups/polling found middle class parents love this policy.Slackbladder said:Sharon Hodgson @SharonHodgsonMP
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.0 -
Could be.AndyJS said:One explanation for the Labour share being so high is that in the 1990s the turnout in many safe Labour seats collapsed from an average of about 70% to around 55% and hasn't really ever recovered since. It could be that Corbyn is once again enthusing the voters in those seats and turnout could be back up to 70% again. It would have a significant effect on Labour's vote share but it wouldn't win them many seats.
However, if the 'surge' remains greater in the south, there must be a few seats there which will unexpectedly go or stay Labour:
Croydon Central ... plus any more in Plymouth, Swindon, Reading, Brighton, Southampton, Portsmouth, Luton, Bedford, Medway (now Rochester and Strood and was Labour up to 2010)?0 -
dyedwoolie said:
We went from canvass reports of anti Corbyn, never heard anything like it since 97 etc etc to Labour on 40 in 3 weeks?
Colour me skeptical. Something very very strange is happening. Have the non voters woken up en masse? Could they.... will they turn Out?
Well, that is what the Corbyn supporters said as the reason for electing him: there's an army of non-voters out there. They said Corbyn was the man to get them off their arses. So far, it seems to be playing out well.
Let's see if they actually deliver though. And how much the prospect of Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn scares the shit out of everybody who doesn't buy in to that ideal.0 -
One thing's for sure, the Labour campaign has been infinitely more clever and cunning than the Tories ever bargained for. And better presented too.0
-
Fpt:
Just to point out to anyone planing to high-tail it to Canada, that BC just elected an NDP (Labour) / Green coalition into power. Good luck!0 -
Offering her resignation might seem a bit desperate though.GideonWise said:TMay needs to actually start campaigning hard and offer up something to the public that makes them want to vote Tory.
0 -
Also, new voters or previous non-voters. If they turn up. And more useful if they turn out in the right constituencies, of course. But I am interested in the link with, FPT,Patrick said:What's intersting is that the Tories seem very solid in the mid 40s - having unsplit the right. It's Labour that is gobbling up the lefty share - apparently unsplitting the left. LDs, Greens, UKIP, all the minor parties are a waste of time now.
I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.
I wonder whether the problem the Tories have is that they have material that can can shift e.g. undecided kippers who don't fall into a neat left/right split (e.g. maybe socially conservative but economically left-leaning) but they do not have anything they can bring to bear on e.g. a Lib Dem or Green or never-voted-but-would-certainly-never-vote-Tory. It would help the Tories a lot if the Greens nabbed 5%, for example, but whatever record they play on Corbyn's history or Labour sums adding up isn't going to make that happen. Presumably Corbyn is making few inroads into traditional Tory voters, and to the limited extent he is eating into their vote share it's likely from ex-Lib Dems or (especially?) UKIP voters who weren't naturally at home in Club Tory. If Corbyn's rise is primarily among the segment of voters that the Tories have little to no traction with, there may be very little they can do to stop it.FrancisUrquhart said:What is really bizzare to me is as this corbyasm has ramped up, Tories don't seem to do anything in response. Either they haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe it.
You would think that they would have every known popular Tory on the media round the clock with some form of attack. Even the Tory friendly media haven't really been fed attack stories, mail yesterday was how biased the bbc is and today telegraph about to waiting times. The first won't shift a vote and the second is bad for the government.0 -
Great poll, but as a Labour supporter I'm still fully anticipating a 2015-esque gut punch at 10pm next Thursday!
[deleted]0 -
I paid my student loan in 6 years.foxinsoxuk said:
Fox jr has already voted, but would love that!Slackbladder said:Sharon Hodgson @SharonHodgsonMP
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.
I was paying around £450 a month from my salary. 0 -
This is all David Cameron's fault.
He made being PM look so easy and effortless.
Mrs May underestimated Cameron0 -
Are you a hit man? Take out Corbyn?KentRising said:Got an email from Theresa May this morning. In the subject header:
"I need you to do this one thing for me"
Sounds desperate, and a bit creepy!
0 -
Think I better read the Labour manifesto now.DanSmith said:
https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/870598290659844096TheScreamingEagles said:
Link please.DanSmith said:Labour lead by 3 in that IpsosMORI before turnout filters are applied.
0 -
Huge numbers of votes have been cast. The intelligence is there. They know.Typo said:
This is the most interesting factor to my mind - as far as we can see absolutely nothing has changed. The Conservatives are either keeping schtum about a change in the mood or they are finding it very different on the ground.Brom said:
Most definitely.Patrick said:What's intersting is that the Tories seem very solid in the mid 40s - having unsplit the right. It's Labour that is gobbling up the lefty share - apparently unsplitting the left. LDs, Greens, UKIP, all the minor parties are a waste of time now.
I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.
I'd love to hear from the following:
1. Someone part of the Tory camapign. Is there panic or confidence?
2. Anyone knocking in a Midlands/Northern marginal. Have things really changed that much in 2/3 weeks?
Somebody is about to become a cropper either way.
I am voting Conservative myself but this is utterly fascinating now.
0 -
I blame Vote Leave, they promised the undeliverable.Slackbladder said:
I love a free lunch too, but they're never free.TheScreamingEagles said:
I said the other day I was told focus groups/polling found middle class parents love this policy.Slackbladder said:Sharon Hodgson @SharonHodgsonMP
Jeremy Corbyn: Labour could write off historic student debts| All those in early 20's with student debt #VoteLabour
I know May might be crap, but f*** me Labour are dangerous.0 -
Maybe I'm just projecting - but if it's 45/40 then we might well see a Tory landslide of wafer thin majorities. And a Labour landslide in 2022.0
-
It could be like 2015. Or it could be like 2016 and the expected swing back to the establishment doesn't happen. Interesting times !handandmouse said:Great poll, but as a Labour supporter I'm still fully anticipating a 2015-esque gut punch at 10pm next
DanSmith said:
https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/870598290659844096TheScreamingEagles said:
Link please.DanSmith said:Labour lead by 3 in that IpsosMORI before turnout filters are applied.
Surely that right-hand chart should be labelled 'Labour Lead +3'!0 -
Cheersrottenborough said:
Think I better read the Labour manifesto now.DanSmith said:
https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/870598290659844096TheScreamingEagles said:
Link please.DanSmith said:Labour lead by 3 in that IpsosMORI before turnout filters are applied.
0 -
So how did Momentum manage to rig a phone poll? Have they been applying for jobs in call centres, or what?0
