I think I'll sign off for the election for now. Final prediction Tory majority 30-50, LDs on 6.
I don't believe Labour can have surged so much (though I believe they have surged) as I just cannot accept so many people changed their minds so radically so quickly no matter how good or bad the campaigns have been.
It does happen. Both the AV ref and Scottish parliament election in 2011 saw huge late swings.
Asked the question earlier this morning, but still dont know if tight polls benefit the Tories in getting the previously complacent Stop Corbyn vote out, or if it benefits Labour as people jump on the bandwagon, and see themselves being part of a historic victory?
I suspect it will disproportionately help one of the 2 parties, but which one?
Phone polls still suffer from the big question: who actually answers the phone to numbers they don't recognise? And who ignores them?
Maybe the pollsters could phone around and do a survey on this.....
A lot of the elderly seem not to. There appears to be some new call barring magic from BT as well, a few weeks ago I tried to call Mr Indigo (Snr) on the event of her birthday and got told by a robot voice that I was not on the list of approved numbers so the person was not going to take my call. Fearing I was about to be cut out of her will or something a solicitous email followed shortly after, the reply to which informed me that is was some magic BT had put on for her, and she would go and look at the website and see if she could get my number accepted again!
Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it? Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.
Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?
Weeelll, I suppose you could say that but I would argue that it was a lie. If £350m per week is found from somewhere it still wouldn't be the amount we're 'saving' from leaving the EU.
£350m per week = £350 x 52 = £18.2bn pa
We are not saving £18bn by leaving. Most people quote £8bn pa = £153m per week
I think it's quite likely we'll pay more net after Brexit than before, although not all of that will be direct to the EU. We'll be on market rates rather than subscription rates and they are not necessarily lower.
Frankly, I have no idea what will happen after Brexit. I suspect neither does anyone else...
Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
Maybe if any Momentum poll "rigging" was going on, it was them trying to make the polls artificially bad for Labour earlier this year, in order to lure May into calling an election?
Naaaaaaaa.....
it iS just that TM is terribly bad. Once you become a figure of ridicule for the mainstream media you are FUBARed.
I still think the Tories will win with a majority circa 80-100 but TM is a busted flush and has lost her authority.
Trudeau is a bit of a wally, but he isn't a marxist who sympathizers with terrorists, antisemites, holocaust deniers and also they have a provence system where the likes of BC is very pro startup.
He is kinda irritating though. Flexing his abs and doing yoga in parliament.
I'm no fan but he is kinda of like having Ed miliband in charge of the uk...You would think he is a bit of a plonker, based a load of his policies on a couple of holiday books he read with dodgy data, but he isn't going totally wreck the joint.
Corbyn on the other hand, I am genuinely scared what he and his band of marxist / communists will do.
Similar politically. But personality wise Ed is a geek with a gift for being awkward. Trudeau was the cool kid at school who takes selfies and walks around topless.
I offered a bet to TSE - will offer to you.
GDP growth will be higher under PM Corbyn than average of Cameron/May. Loser gives £20 to a charity of the winners choice?
No PM Corbyn/he gets deposed within 2 years of becoming PM - bet is void.
BC is absolutely gorgeous by the way. Don't blame you if you do move!
Any government can generate activity by throwing money into the economy, leading to a spike in GDP stats. The longer-term effects can be disastrous but take more than two years to show up. Even McDonnell couldn't wreck the City in two years though he could do an immense amount of damage that would take decades to repair.
All the Tories had to do was a manifesto on brexit, bins and immigration...The most boring manifesto possible...Then spend a month pointing at labour....That is all they had to fucking do....
Or if they really wanted to be smart could have chucked in say £250-300 million a week extra for nhs....By 2022 (or 2025)...Basically a bit of a bump but most of it inflation, but could have kinda kept the bus promise.
Agree strongly with this.
Boris is a big electoral asset. Imagine him out campaigning with "yes we WILL put £350million/week for the NHS" posters everywhere... that needed to be the one big takeaway headline, not stealing granny's house. "Commission a thorough, far-reaching review" would have done for social care.
The uncertainties of Brexit were a great excuse for a largely non-specific manifesto, if even domestic policy is somewhat dependent on the outcome.
Asked the question earlier this morning, but still dont know if tight polls benefit the Tories in getting the previously complacent Stop Corbyn vote out, or if it benefits Labour as people jump on the bandwagon, and see themselves being part of a historic victory?
I suspect it will disproportionately help one of the 2 parties, but which one?
I suspect it benefits Labour as not only has it got the mo,Jezza has his mojo working.Crossover is now more likely than not.
Maybe if any Momentum poll "rigging" was going on, it was them trying to make the polls artificially bad for Labour earlier this year, in order to lure May into calling an election?
Naaaaaaaa.....
it iS just that TM is terribly bad. Once you become a figure of ridicule for the mainstream media you are FUBARed.
I still think the Tories will win with a majority circa 80-100 but TM is a busted flush and has lost her authority.
Last not - if she wins by that much the polls are bollocks and so is the panic, so her authority will be fine.
Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
A 15% lead in best PM is still excellent. I've no idea why there's just a 5 point lead when it comes to voting intention?
I'm voting Labour but would rate Corbyn even worse than May. There are better potential PMs in both parties. It's partly tactical - I want to keep the only Labour MP in Scotland, partly because I like the MP, because I still expect the Conservatives to win but want to make them more accountable, because if Labour do unexpectedly come through I think the party MPs will moderate Corbyn.
Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it? Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.
Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?
Weeelll, I suppose you could say that but I would argue that it was a lie. If £350m per week is found from somewhere it still wouldn't be the amount we're 'saving' from leaving the EU.
£350m per week = £350 x 52 = £18.2bn pa
We are not saving £18bn by leaving. Most people quote £8bn pa = £153m per week
£350m was clearly false but the £153m is also rubbish. The actual amount is around £283m a week as that is the gross payment after the rebate that we make. Counting the net payment is dishonest because of the strings attached to any monies we get back from the EU.
I am just using the common (apparently dishonest) figures. I am certainly not defending the "Brexit Benefit" given my well stated position on this. I expect the country to be worse off over the rest of my lifetime and possibly longer.
Any government can generate activity by throwing money into the economy, leading to a spike in GDP stats. The longer-term effects can be disastrous but take more than two years to show up. Even McDonnell couldn't wreck the City in two years though he could do an immense amount of damage that would take decades to repair.
Shhhh... He might yet take the bet...
What do you see as wrecking the city - a big rise in corporation tax back to where it was? IMO immigration coming down to tens of thousands is a bigger risk.
This feels very 1992 in some ways. All came down to people being unwilling to vote for Kinnock in the voting booth. Would doubt wavering pensioners and UKIPers looking for a new home are going to go for Jez, but this campaign has been dire by the Tories.
However, Labour didn't have the Scotland problem in 1992, where they've been annihilated in a FPTP system. Without 50+ seats in Scotland, they need to win big in England and that isn't going to happen outside London.
I suspect the big mistake was May not attending the debate. The public aren't interested in the finer details of policy but they can smell a rat from fifty paces. If you choose not to turn up you are either very entitled or you have something to hide.
True I understand the logic of not debating with Corbyn but after denying much scrutiny and deriding your opponent so much seems a bit disingenuous .
"'Your water is changing your sexuality' says Lib Dem candidate
A Liberal Democrat candidate has suggested that drinking water with plastic residue in it can turn people gay. Susan King, who is standing in the west Midlands seat of Telford, said that "feminising hormones" are in the water supply, and can change sexuality."
Election Expenses. I know someone who gave £10,000 to an mps campaign in 2015 (not in south thanet) to a tory mp to stop ukip getting in. When I heard this, I was certain, but said nothing, that this broke election law.
Can a constituent living in a seat give £10,000 to an mp?
Does anyone really believe Con+Lab=85% compared to 69% at GE2015?
With UKIP falling off a cliff, SNP on retreat and Labour gobbling up Greens - why not?
I think it's possible, but unlikely. My guess is that the SNP will still get 4% of the GB vote, that the Greens will get 2% and UKIP should still get 2%. There's also 1% that will inevitably go to odds and sods (the Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol Party and the like.)
Now, could the LDs end up on just 6%? Yes, obviously.
But I don't think they will. My guess is that they'll actually end up on 10-11%. Which gives Con + Lab = 80%.
All the Tories had to do was a manifesto on brexit, bins and immigration...The most boring manifesto possible...Then spend a month pointing at labour....That is all they had to fucking do....
Or if they really wanted to be smart could have chucked in say £250-300 million a week extra for nhs....By 2022 (or 2025)...Basically a bit of a bump but most of it inflation, but could have kinda kept the bus promise.
Agree strongly with this.
Boris is a big electoral asset. Imagine him out campaigning with "yes we WILL put £350million/week for the NHS" posters everywhere... that needed to be the one big takeaway headline, not stealing granny's house. "Commission a thorough, far-reaching review" would have done for social care.
The uncertainties of Brexit were a great excuse for a largely non-specific manifesto, if even domestic policy is somewhat dependent on the outcome.
Yep. If the Tories had outflanked Labour on NHS funding, I think that would be very very powerful electorally.
there is no third-party any more - the liberal democrats are done - rip. we are back to a two party system right versus left
Yep. People say they want options, but they don't, they want two big polarised options, and might say the like middle options but won't for it.
It looks like the Tory share is going to be a lot higher than two years ago, which means they could add an extra 2 million votes. May will point to that as success.
She wont last 5 minutes as leader if these numbers are correct. And I will be cheering on her leadership opponent.
Maybe if any Momentum poll "rigging" was going on, it was them trying to make the polls artificially bad for Labour earlier this year, in order to lure May into calling an election?
Naaaaaaaa.....
it iS just that TM is terribly bad. Once you become a figure of ridicule for the mainstream media you are FUBARed.
I still think the Tories will win with a majority circa 80-100 but TM is a busted flush and has lost her authority.
That is true.
Being unpopular is recoverable, but recovering from ridicule is near impossible.
NOM would suit me politically (though Ulster Unionists would make an effective majority), but not so much financially at Betfair.
Asked the question earlier this morning, but still dont know if tight polls benefit the Tories in getting the previously complacent Stop Corbyn vote out, or if it benefits Labour as people jump on the bandwagon, and see themselves being part of a historic victory?
I suspect it will disproportionately help one of the 2 parties, but which one?
Who knows. It could also make Labour voters complacent in their safer seats. It could also also make them more willing to flirt with fringe leftie parties like the Greens.
there is no third-party any more - the liberal democrats are done - rip. we are back to a two party system right versus left
Yep. People say they want options, but they don't, they want two big polarised options, and might say the like middle options but won't for it.
It looks like the Tory share is going to be a lot higher than two years ago, which means they could add an extra 2 million votes. May will point to that as success.
She wont last 5 minutes as leader if these numbers are correct. And I will be cheering on her leadership opponent.
Come on, you're saying she increases the Tory share from 38% to 45% and she still has to go? That would be the highest Con share for nearly 40 years.
Phone polls still suffer from the big question: who actually answers the phone to numbers they don't recognise? And who ignores them?
Maybe the pollsters could phone around and do a survey on this.....
That breaks down into lots of interesting questions as in: who has a landline at all, who has caller display on the line, who can see the displayed number without their glasses, what is the demographic breakdown of the numbers on the pollsters list.
I note incidentally that registration with the Telephone Preference Service doesn't protect against market research calls, which presumably includes polling co s.
Election Expenses. I know someone who gave £10,000 to an mps campaign in 2015 (not in south thanet) to a tory mp to stop ukip getting in. When I heard this, I was certain, but said nothing, that this broke election law.
Can a constituent living in a seat give £10,000 to an mp?
Yes, why not? It has to be declared, and the donor has to be on the electoral roll (but not necessariy in the same constituency).
How about small Tory majority, to be shortly followed by PM Hammond leading the Brexit negotiation?
My Betfair account likes this idea.
Wouldn't be the worst thing for the country either.
Yep. I can't help thinking a small majority that gets rid of May and puts the more ardent Brexiteers back in their box might be optimal. Hammond would be fine.
Does anyone really believe Con+Lab=85% compared to 69% at GE2015?
With UKIP falling off a cliff, SNP on retreat and Labour gobbling up Greens - why not?
I think it's possible, but unlikely. My guess is that the SNP will still get 4% of the GB vote, that the Greens will get 2% and UKIP should still get 2%. There's also 1% that will inevitably go to odds and sods (the Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol Party and the like.)
Now, could the LDs end up on just 6%? Yes, obviously.
But I don't think they will. My guess is that they'll actually end up on 10-11%. Which gives Con + Lab = 80%.
Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?
It means that we can't just put the polls down to infiltration of YouGov's panel.
No, although it could be a random error in the direction of Labour. Even perfect pollsters will be subject to these unless they poll the entire country.
Whether or not she wins, I thoroughly agree with the past Tory wet who said
'Large majorities do not make for good govt.' (c) Francis Pym.
Politics also gets more interesting when the govt has to negotiate with the awkward squad or even with the opposition.
I cannot believe this is what she wanted. But it's possibly also the sort of majority Brown would have won if he'd dissolved parliament at the optimum time.
Betting-wise, I wish this panic would lengthen the odds a little more on a 1983-type landslide. I feel I could do with a bit more of insurance. I've seen so many elections where Labour underperforms nearly all the polls.
Labour didn't underperform in 2010....
1997 was a shocker too for the polls, most giving Labour leads of circa 20%, though it was all forgotten because of the landslide.....
Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it? Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.
Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?
Weeelll, I suppose you could say that but I would argue that it was a lie. If £350m per week is found from somewhere it still wouldn't be the amount we're 'saving' from leaving the EU.
£350m per week = £350 x 52 = £18.2bn pa
We are not saving £18bn by leaving. Most people quote £8bn pa = £153m per week
I think it's quite likely we'll pay more net after Brexit than before, although not all of that will be direct to the EU. We'll be on market rates rather than subscription rates and they are not necessarily lower.
Frankly, I have no idea what will happen after Brexit. I suspect neither does anyone else...
Agreed. But I am fairly confident Brexit will be expensive in cold hard cash - not just lost trade. Britain will lose a lot of influence. You can get some of it back by paying for it.
Michael Gove and Andrew Neill seemed to agree that by having two referendums in a short space of time and by forcing voters to vote yes/no, this has created an alignment of the two party system because voting for someone else is a waste.
No point voting liberal democrat anymore. No point voting SNP (they've done nothing in westminster in 2 years despite having 56 mps).
You vote Tory or Labour for parliamentary representation. I could see Corbyn offering Lucas a job in cabinet.
As I pre-election warm up Secret Cinema are hosting a few screeenings of the highly non-political movie I, Daniel Blake https://www.secretcinema.org/wearedaniel
I must say the news is unremitting gloomy for the Tories....from NHS waiting lists, to insurance hikes, to house prices, to Donald Trump...and then we have Mrs Glumbucket herself...
It's the hope that kills you, so I'm keeping my expectations low on the Labour surge, but sometimes I let myself hope (just a bit)
"'Your water is changing your sexuality' says Lib Dem candidate
A Liberal Democrat candidate has suggested that drinking water with plastic residue in it can turn people gay. Susan King, who is standing in the west Midlands seat of Telford, said that "feminising hormones" are in the water supply, and can change sexuality."
Michael Gove and Andrew Neill seemed to agree that by having two referendums in a short space of time and by forcing voters to vote yes/no, this has created an alignment of the two party system because voting for someone else is a waste.
No point voting liberal democrat anymore. No point voting SNP (they've done nothing in westminster in 2 years despite having 56 mps).
You vote Tory or Labour for parliamentary representation. I could see Corbyn offering Lucas a job in cabinet.
Lol! You present a very good explanation for the return of two party politics and then assume Lucas will keep her seat!
Have all those reports from MPs & canvassers about Corbyn being toxic disappeared completely over the last 10 days? One might ask this if there was so much spinning earlier about his poor ratings.
How many PBers consider that there has really been the biggest shift in sentiment during this GE campaign, and are the explanations for the scale of the change plausible?
Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it? Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.
Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?
Weeelll, I suppose you could say that but I would argue that it was a lie. If £350m per week is found from somewhere it still wouldn't be the amount we're 'saving' from leaving the EU.
£350m per week = £350 x 52 = £18.2bn pa
We are not saving £18bn by leaving. Most people quote £8bn pa = £153m per week
I think it's quite likely we'll pay more net after Brexit than before, although not all of that will be direct to the EU. We'll be on market rates rather than subscription rates and they are not necessarily lower.
Frankly, I have no idea what will happen after Brexit. I suspect neither does anyone else...
Agreed. But I am fairly confident Brexit will be expensive in cold hard cash - not just lost trade. Britain will lose a lot of influence. You can get some of it back by paying for it.
Yes - I could believe that. My intuition says that walking away from your biggest market and erecting trading barriers with them is not a recipe for profit and success, but the lunatics are running the asylum.
I sometimes feel like I am living in Michael Moorcock's GranBretan.
Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
A 15% lead in best PM is still excellent. I've no idea why there's just a 5 point lead when it comes to voting intention?
It's unlikely both numbers are correct. We'll find out soon enough.
We saw this in the U.S, fewer people thought Trump was the best person for the job than actually ovoted for him. People want change, and May has not set out what change she is offering on the domestic front just Brexit means Brexit. Well that is not enough, clearly.
I must say the news is unremitting gloomy for the Tories....from NHS waiting lists, to insurance hikes, to house prices, to Donald Trump...and then we have Mrs Glumbucket herself...
It's the hope that kills you, so I'm keeping my expectations low on the Labour surge, but sometimes I let myself hope (just a bit)
My confidence in a crushing Tory victory is also wavering. I thought I was being bold in hoping for JC to do better than Ed.... Still think Tory vote will be more efficient.
We will have to deal with JC supporters banging on about PR afterwards (yet another thing that can be blamed on Blair?).
Michael Gove and Andrew Neill seemed to agree that by having two referendums in a short space of time and by forcing voters to vote yes/no, this has created an alignment of the two party system because voting for someone else is a waste.
No point voting liberal democrat anymore. No point voting SNP (they've done nothing in westminster in 2 years despite having 56 mps).
You vote Tory or Labour for parliamentary representation. I could see Corbyn offering Lucas a job in cabinet.
Lol! You present a very good explanation for the return of two party politics and then assume Lucas will keep her seat!
There are exceptions, and Lucas is practically a Corbynista anyway.
Any government can generate activity by throwing money into the economy, leading to a spike in GDP stats. The longer-term effects can be disastrous but take more than two years to show up. Even McDonnell couldn't wreck the City in two years though he could do an immense amount of damage that would take decades to repair.
Shhhh... He might yet take the bet...
What do you see as wrecking the city - a big rise in corporation tax back to where it was? IMO immigration coming down to tens of thousands is a bigger risk.
Any rise in corporation tax at this time of Brexit is dangerous + McDonnell wants a financial transaction tax that would cause mayhem
On immigration TM is following this line for political reasons but in practice immigration needs will follow the economic needs
We saw this in the U.S, fewer people thought Trump was the best person for the job than actually ovoted for him. People want change, and May has not set out what change she is offering on the domestic front just Brexit means Brexit. Well that is not enough, clearly.
Yes, people want change and they want social security. Some pollsters are weak on psychology.
Any government can generate activity by throwing money into the economy, leading to a spike in GDP stats. The longer-term effects can be disastrous but take more than two years to show up. Even McDonnell couldn't wreck the City in two years though he could do an immense amount of damage that would take decades to repair.
Shhhh... He might yet take the bet...
What do you see as wrecking the city - a big rise in corporation tax back to where it was? IMO immigration coming down to tens of thousands is a bigger risk.
There is no individual measure that would wreck it but the tax and regulatory environment would clearly be hostile, which combined with Brexit would cause firms to think about their future very seriously. I have no doubt that reducing the power of the City would be an explicit (if private) aim of McDonnell, even at the expense of tax revenues.
Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
A 15% lead in best PM is still excellent. I've no idea why there's just a 5 point lead when it comes to voting intention?
I'm voting Labour but would rate Corbyn even worse than May. There are better potential PMs in both parties. It's partly tactical - I want to keep the only Labour MP in Scotland, partly because I like the MP, because I still expect the Conservatives to win but want to make them more accountable, because if Labour do unexpectedly come through I think the party MPs will moderate Corbyn.
I tactically lent him my vote last time, like many others in the constituency I suppose. He's not bad. But I was surprised to catch a snippet on the radio this morning suggesting that SCon were soft-pedalling here, implicitly endorsing a tactical vote for SLab.
During GE 2015 the audience laughed at Ed, it encapsulated the utter contempt the public had for him.
During this election the audience laughed at May, they see her as Ed not Gordon.
I take your point. But those audiences also laughed at Cameron at times. I wouldn't place much weight on audience response in those settings.
The more interesting stuff was the focus groups describing the different leaders. EdM was always viewed as a joke. A nice guy but totally out of his depth.
A month ago, I imagine the same focus group would have been describing TMay as strong but cold. Unlovable but will get the job done. They would also say they probably didn't know her that well. Now I imagine she is seen as being frit, not all that bright, conservative (in a small c-sense), with questionable competency.
I imagine the turnaround for Corbyn has been as great but in the opposite direction.
there is no third-party any more - the liberal democrats are done - rip. we are back to a two party system right versus left
Yep. People say they want options, but they don't, they want two big polarised options, and might say the like middle options but won't for it.
It looks like the Tory share is going to be a lot higher than two years ago, which means they could add an extra 2 million votes. May will point to that as success.
She wont last 5 minutes as leader if these numbers are correct. And I will be cheering on her leadership opponent.
Come on, you're saying she increases the Tory share from 38% to 45% and she still has to go? That would be the highest Con share for nearly 40 years.
Can we please stop crediting May and Corbyn with the collapse of third parties?
Right May say you plan to cut taxes. Now! You have effed up untill now, energy cap, home stealing, racial pay audit etc, you are fighting this election on the left's ground and you are suprise suprise on course to lose.
Tax cuts for low and middle earners now! They pay for themseleves. This COULD be wrong but....it could be right and we can't have a coalition of chaos negeotiating Brexit.
(just to be clear the coalition of chaos is the one led by Corbyn, it is sad I have to spell that out......).
What is really bizzare to me is as this corbyasm has ramped up, Tories don't seem to do anything in response. Either they haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe it.
You would think that they would have every known popular Tory on the media round the clock with some form of attack. Even the Tory friendly media haven't really been fed attack stories, mail yesterday was how biased the bbc is and today telegraph about to waiting times. The first won't shift a vote and the second is bad for the government.
Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
A 15% lead in best PM is still excellent. I've no idea why there's just a 5 point lead when it comes to voting intention?
I'm voting Labour but would rate Corbyn even worse than May. There are better potential PMs in both parties. It's partly tactical - I want to keep the only Labour MP in Scotland, partly because I like the MP, because I still expect the Conservatives to win but want to make them more accountable, because if Labour do unexpectedly come through I think the party MPs will moderate Corbyn.
I tactically lent him my vote last time, like many others in the constituency I suppose. He's not bad. But I was surprised to catch a snippet on the radio this morning suggesting that SCon were soft-pedalling here, implicitly endorsing a tactical vote for SLab.
It's possible. Labour get Edinburgh South, Lib Dems Edinburgh West and the Tories Edinburgh South West, all against the SNP and by laying off in each others' patches.
To me, this has the whiff of the Cleggasm and Millifandom. I think in the privacy of the election booth the thought of putting a cross next to Corbyn's party will be too much to contemplate.
I think the LD's will be underestimated as they will get the anti Tory vote
What is really bizzare to me is as this corbyasm has ramped up, Tories don't seem to do anything in response. Either they haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe it.
You would think that they would have every known popular Tory on the media round the clock with some form of attack. Even the Tory friendly media haven't really been fed attack stories, mail yesterday was how biased the bbc is and today telegraph about to waiting times. The first won't shift a vote and the second is bad for the government.
Exactly! What are they playing at? Even if they don't believe it they should be cautious. They have been invisible. You would think they would learn from Hillary etc.
How about small Tory majority, to be shortly followed by PM Hammond leading the Brexit negotiation?
My Betfair account likes this idea.
Wouldn't be the worst thing for the country either.
Yep. I can't help thinking a small majority that gets rid of May and puts the more ardent Brexiteers back in their box might be optimal. Hammond would be fine.
Does it put them in their box, or give them immense amounts of power holding a gun to her (/whoever's) head?
One effect I could see in May having a 100+ majority would be telling the headbangers to swivel when she comes back with an economy-saving single market access deal. (Against that, she has set her own stall out in a headbanger direction, but I can see some special pleading about the economic necessities)
Right May say you plan to cut taxes. Now! You have effed up untill now, energy cap, home stealing, racial pay audit etc, you are fighting this election on the left's ground and you are suprise suprise on course to lose.
Tax cuts for low and middle earners now! They pay for themseleves. This COULD be wrong but....it could be right and we can't have a coalition of chaos negeotiating Brexit.
(just to be clear the coalition of chaos is the one led by Corbyn, it is sad I have to spell that out......).
That is so 2015 The Sun has made a video of Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon flirting with each other on the dance floor. The rag helpfully describes its own video as "hilarious", it was probably fun to make, it is well-made and it is actually quite amusing. But given that Corbyn is on the front cover of NME they are peeing into the wind and probably unwittingly helping Labour. (Which is even more amusing.)
It's too late for the Tories to introduce such a radical change to their platform as you propose. How could they do that while looking strong and continuing to expect mileage from saying that it's the opposition who stand for chaos?
To break the Labour surge something much more spectacular would be required.
To me, this has the whiff of the Cleggasm and Millifandom. I think in the privacy of the election booth the thought of putting a cross next to Corbyn's party will be too much to contemplate.
I think the LD's will be underestimated as they will get the anti Tory vote
Any government can generate activity by throwing money into the economy, leading to a spike in GDP stats. The longer-term effects can be disastrous but take more than two years to show up. Even McDonnell couldn't wreck the City in two years though he could do an immense amount of damage that would take decades to repair.
Shhhh... He might yet take the bet...
What do you see as wrecking the city - a big rise in corporation tax back to where it was? IMO immigration coming down to tens of thousands is a bigger risk.
There is no individual measure that would wreck it but the tax and regulatory environment would clearly be hostile, which combined with Brexit would cause firms to think about their future very seriously. I have no doubt that reducing the power of the City would be an explicit (if private) aim of McDonnell, even at the expense of tax revenues.
About time! The City has been holding the country to ransom for generations. It's reached the point where on average a person aged 21 is in debt to the tune of probably a couple of years' worth of their expected income, while facing a lifetime of paying rent, a lot of which will also go into the pockets of moneylenders. Tories who believe youngsters won't bother to vote next Thursday because they're too busy playing with their phones are kidding themselves.
As well as abolishing the status of non-domiciled tax resident, another great measure would be taxing beneficial interests. There would of course be major opposition from "established interests". The function of the equity system has been to help the rich keep hold of their wealth, not just for a few generations but for centuries (cestui que use). Oliver Cromwell tried but failed to sort Chancery out. Let's finish the job
I think I'll sign off for the election for now. Final prediction Tory majority 30-50, LDs on 6.
I don't believe Labour can have surged so much (though I believe they have surged) as I just cannot accept so many people changed their minds so radically so quickly no matter how good or bad the campaigns have been.
It does happen. Both the AV ref and Scottish parliament election in 2011 saw huge late swings.
Strange, nothing is going right for the Conservatives. This could now be a loss for them, indeed can Mcinley actually be a legitimate candidate, he can be on the ballot paper but very difficult to support him. I have a funny feeling there may be a weekend poll with Labour ahead. The London polling suggests a move to the left there which could bring the South West seats of Twickenham etc into play as well as Con/Lab marginals. Trouble easy once you are on a slide in an election it gains momentum. Canada last year, incredible shift of opinion in the last 5 days. There they publish polls identifying who Leaners are leaning to, which tends to show what is likely to happen. Could do with a bit of that here. A Cons minority government would suit me, probably mean an end to the gung ho anti Europe business. Led by Boris, who of course would find a reason to justify staying in the EU?
Comments
I suspect it will disproportionately help one of the 2 parties, but which one?
Turns out you're not the worst Tory leader of my lifetime.
Naaaaaaaa.....
it iS just that TM is terribly bad. Once you become a figure of ridicule for the mainstream media you are FUBARed.
I still think the Tories will win with a majority circa 80-100 but TM is a busted flush and has lost her authority.
Boris is a big electoral asset. Imagine him out campaigning with "yes we WILL put £350million/week for the NHS" posters everywhere... that needed to be the one big takeaway headline, not stealing granny's house. "Commission a thorough, far-reaching review" would have done for social care.
The uncertainties of Brexit were a great excuse for a largely non-specific manifesto, if even domestic policy is somewhat dependent on the outcome.
Secondly, what was the existing majority? 12? So a handful of gains for Tezza. I inadvertantly gave her slightly more credit than she deserves!
What do you see as wrecking the city - a big rise in corporation tax back to where it was?
IMO immigration coming down to tens of thousands is a bigger risk.
However, Labour didn't have the Scotland problem in 1992, where they've been annihilated in a FPTP system. Without 50+ seats in Scotland, they need to win big in England and that isn't going to happen outside London.
I have a solution;
Instead of putting a tick in the conservative's box - put a cross in the labour one.
Spread the word.
WillS.
A Liberal Democrat candidate has suggested that drinking water with plastic residue in it can turn people gay.
Susan King, who is standing in the west Midlands seat of Telford, said that "feminising hormones" are in the water supply, and can change sexuality."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/water-changing-sexuality-says-lib-dem-candidate/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I know someone who gave £10,000 to an mps campaign in 2015 (not in south thanet) to a tory mp to stop ukip getting in. When I heard this, I was certain, but said nothing, that this broke election law.
Can a constituent living in a seat give £10,000 to an mp?
Now, could the LDs end up on just 6%? Yes, obviously.
But I don't think they will. My guess is that they'll actually end up on 10-11%. Which gives Con + Lab = 80%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39856354
Being unpopular is recoverable, but recovering from ridicule is near impossible.
NOM would suit me politically (though Ulster Unionists would make an effective majority), but not so much financially at Betfair.
Oh well, the pain is worth the gain.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40118123
I note incidentally that registration with the Telephone Preference Service doesn't protect against market research calls, which presumably includes polling co s.
1997 was a shocker too for the polls, most giving Labour leads of circa 20%, though it was all forgotten because of the landslide.....
No point voting liberal democrat anymore. No point voting SNP (they've done nothing in westminster in 2 years despite having 56 mps).
You vote Tory or Labour for parliamentary representation. I could see Corbyn offering Lucas a job in cabinet.
Those £3 Tories for Corbyn are in for some hellish blowback!
During this election the audience laughed at May, they see her as Ed not Gordon.
It's the hope that kills you, so I'm keeping my expectations low on the Labour surge, but sometimes I let myself hope (just a bit)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phthalate#Endocrine_disruption
- her ideas are highly implausible, to put it politely.
NEW THREAD
How many PBers consider that there has really been the biggest shift in sentiment during this GE campaign, and are the explanations for the scale of the change plausible?
I sometimes feel like I am living in Michael Moorcock's GranBretan.
I thought I was being bold in hoping for JC to do better than Ed....
Still think Tory vote will be more efficient.
We will have to deal with JC supporters banging on about PR afterwards (yet another thing that can be blamed on Blair?).
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/870591870136725504
On immigration TM is following this line for political reasons but in practice immigration needs will follow the economic needs
The more interesting stuff was the focus groups describing the different leaders. EdM was always viewed as a joke. A nice guy but totally out of his depth.
A month ago, I imagine the same focus group would have been describing TMay as strong but cold. Unlovable but will get the job done. They would also say they probably didn't know her that well. Now I imagine she is seen as being frit, not all that bright, conservative (in a small c-sense), with questionable competency.
I imagine the turnaround for Corbyn has been as great but in the opposite direction.
Tax cuts for low and middle earners now! They pay for themseleves. This COULD be wrong but....it could be right and we can't have a coalition of chaos negeotiating Brexit.
(just to be clear the coalition of chaos is the one led by Corbyn, it is sad I have to spell that out......).
You would think that they would have every known popular Tory on the media round the clock with some form of attack. Even the Tory friendly media haven't really been fed attack stories, mail yesterday was how biased the bbc is and today telegraph about to waiting times. The first won't shift a vote and the second is bad for the government.
I think the LD's will be underestimated as they will get the anti Tory vote
One effect I could see in May having a 100+ majority would be telling the headbangers to swivel when she comes back with an economy-saving single market access deal. (Against that, she has set her own stall out in a headbanger direction, but I can see some special pleading about the economic necessities)
It's too late for the Tories to introduce such a radical change to their platform as you propose. How could they do that while looking strong and continuing to expect mileage from saying that it's the opposition who stand for chaos?
To break the Labour surge something much more spectacular would be required.
As well as abolishing the status of non-domiciled tax resident, another great measure would be taxing beneficial interests. There would of course be major opposition from "established interests". The function of the equity system has been to help the rich keep hold of their wealth, not just for a few generations but for centuries (cestui que use). Oliver Cromwell tried but failed to sort Chancery out. Let's finish the job