politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both ICM and YouGov find CON dominance amongst the oldies is n
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I'm hoping for a 'we're alright'. Suicide for LAB as Middle England watches on.Brom said:
Those sort of rallies will play into Tory hands. The triumphant mob is very unBritish.Yorkcity said:
There will be a large crowd in York tonight singing Jez we can !FrancisUrquhart said:
Canada here I come.....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Corbyn doesn't seem the sort though.0 -
Trudeau is a bit of a wally, but he isn't a marxist who sympathizers with terrorists, antisemites, holocaust deniers and also they have a provence system where the likes of BC is very pro startup.Yorkcity said:
Yes you must be a Justin Trudeau supporter.FrancisUrquhart said:
Canada here I come.....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0 -
That's the sound of Dan Hodges desperately whistling.rottenborough said:0 -
If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?0
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Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?logical_song said:
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it?MarqueeMark said:Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.0 -
Tories 4 Corbyn deserve to buggered senseless for eternity by fantastically well hung demons wearing Justin Bieber face masks.grabcocque said:Morning PB tories...
What's good?
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Even if Labour does lose this election - which is by no means assured now - Corbyn is now safe in post for at least two years, which may well be long enough to remould the party much more to his liking.kle4 said:
So much for people not liking Corbyn or his offer. A lot of Labour MPs will be preparing to be Jeremy's little minions now and grovelling that they doubted him.TheScreamingEagles said:Corbyn isn't far off what Blair polled in 1997 if that Ipsos MORI poll is correct.
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Well they're not going to be 'good' for May are they....TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm waiting for their leader ratings, they are the best predictor.rural_voter said:
Thatcher Mk1 here we come (majority 42)?DanSmith said:
My God.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?0 -
More like Canada last year every day. UKIP voters switching to Labopur now! Mrs May non appearance will not have helped.I am beginning to feel sorry for the Conservatives. Doomsday must be getting nearer. It has already arrived for the Lib Dems.0
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*Basic* differential and integral calculus is part of GCSE maths syllabuses.
I think I was first taught to differentiate simple polynomials around age 15.0 -
The 'marque(e)' of the man...MarqueeMark said:
Harsh on Crick...PeterMannion said:
He hasn't got the decency...Chris_A said:After Marquee Mark castigated Michael Crick on here a few days ago I hope he's gone in search of some humble pie.
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At this trend, Labour will be leading by Monday morning...0
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OK, can anyone who canvasses put their hand on their heart and say there has been a 10% swing in public intention since May 1?
If they can, it may be so. If not, we'll ssomething odd is occurring,0 -
5pt headline VI lead, wondering what the raw numbers were before filtering for turnout etc.0
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Let's sayAlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
LD 5 SNP 4 UKIP 2 GREEN 2 OTHER 2
The end of the LDs, and UKIP, and a disaster for the Greens.0 -
Is Chris Mullin the new nostradamus..
Anybody who can recall "A very british coup" will know what im talking about
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Up until the 1950s, possibly the 1960s, calculus was certainly taught at O Level. Before then it was taught for the School Certificate that O Levels replaced.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Calculus at 14?FrancisUrquhart said:
Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Which real maths did you have in mind?FrancisUrquhart said:
How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?FeersumEnjineeya said:
I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.rkrkrk said:If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:
More of:
Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,
Less:
Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.
Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.
All essays in exams to have word limits.
That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!
Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.
Etc etc etc
I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
Anyone who can understand exponentiation can understand logarithms. If a^b = c then b is the log of c to base a.
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I really hope that he is right. If nothing else, I've promised to donate money to Labour if they net gain seats, in recognition of their achieving a miracle.rottenborough said:0 -
Well before then. Would be highest since 1970.asjohnstone said:
Highest 2 party share since the 80s?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0 -
Very possible Labour are ahead before the filters are applied.asjohnstone said:5pt headline VI lead, wondering what the raw numbers were before filtering for turnout etc.
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If only I had done calculus at O level I would be able to work out the rate of change - and predict LAB overtaking CON by June 8th.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0 -
I am also fifty something, and did calculus at O level, at a Comprehensive.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. I am 51 and I went to a comprehensive. We did calculus from the start of the 4th year and it was an important part of the O level course.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.FrancisUrquhart said:
Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Which real maths did you have in mind?FrancisUrquhart said:
How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?FeersumEnjineeya said:
I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.rkrkrk said:If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:
More of:
Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,
Less:
Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.
Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.
All essays in exams to have word limits.
That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!
Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.
Etc etc etc
I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
I had done it before at High School in America though, along with quadratic equations.
Fox jr did a lot of trigonometry, circle theory and geometry, as well as some calculus at GCSE. Indeed I thought maths wasnt dumbed down from my day at all.0 -
Lib Dems are on 7%. No change from last time.AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
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Oh gawd it's going to an afternoon of Conservative bedwetters on PB dribbling p*ss and wind down our screens.0
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He is kinda irritating though. Flexing his abs and doing yoga in parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:
Trudeau is a bit of a wally, but he isn't a marxist who sympathizers with terrorists, antisemites, holocaust deniers and also they have a provence system where the likes of BC is very pro startup.Yorkcity said:
Yes you must be a Justin Trudeau supporter.FrancisUrquhart said:
Canada here I come.....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0 -
Maybe, but were the figures right on May 1st, are they right now?dyedwoolie said:OK, can anyone who canvasses put their hand on their heart and say there has been a 10% swing in public intention since May 1?
If they can, it may be so. If not, we'll ssomething odd is occurring,0 -
The juicy bet is laying a Tory majority. They've only got to lose five seats. In traditional talk, a 0.84% swing against them would be enough. Hard to believe that the betting market gives this a probability of 0.194.TheScreamingEagles said:Corbyn isn't far off what Blair polled in 1997 if that Ipsos MORI poll is correct.
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Errr, what has Macron actually achieved? He's been in office 2 weeks. He's like Trudeau - basically Blair circa-1997. Looks the part and seems all cool and nice, but will he actually DO anything? of note? "Make Planet Earth great again" - I don't even know what that means. Goes down well with the Twitterati though.kle4 said:
I don't know that it is appalling - what Macron has achieved so far is amazing (and if he can deliver, outstanding), and I'd not expect an amazing leader among a group of 6-7 anyway, though I'd like it. Amazing leaders don't come along every election.Pulpstar said:How appalling is it that the bloody French have managed to get a better leader than ANY of our choices on offer.
It's making me green with envy looking at that kantar seat projection.0 -
Equals Lib Dems losing seats?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems are on 7%. No change from last time.AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
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Do not know much about Justin .Our friends emigrated there years ago but are having to come back to UK for family reasons Canadian politics has been very volatile these past few years.FrancisUrquhart said:
Trudeau is a bit of a wally, but he isn't a marxist who sympathizers with terrorists, antisemites, holocaust deniers and also they have a provence system where the likes of BC is very pro startup.Yorkcity said:
Yes you must be a Justin Trudeau supporter.FrancisUrquhart said:
Canada here I come.....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0 -
That's crazy. I put in 7 LD, 2 UKIP, 1 Green in electoral calculus and got Con maj 20 with Green, UKIP, Plaid being wiped out and only 2 LD (Farron and Williams)asjohnstone said:
Highest 2 party share since the 80s?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0 -
Anyone got the all naming a party Scores?0
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I think these polls are designed to alleviate the social care crisis. They're killing off all the Tory pensioners with heart attacks.0
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So long as she's ahead of Corbyn, that's all that matters.Slackbladder said:
Well they're not going to be 'good' for May are they....TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm waiting for their leader ratings, they are the best predictor.rural_voter said:
Thatcher Mk1 here we come (majority 42)?DanSmith said:
My God.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?0 -
It's certainly not part of the current Edexcel A* - G Maths syllabus.grabcocque said:*Basic* differential and integral calculus is part of GCSE maths syllabuses.
I think I was first taught to differentiate simple polynomials around age 15.0 -
Lieutenant Colonel John Owlsgore: "Smell that? You smell that? Urine, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of urine in the morning. You know, one time we had a bad poll, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn’t find one of ‘em, not one stinkin’ Tory body. The smell, you know that pee smell, the whole forum. Smelled like… Victory. Someday this election’s gonna end…"0
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Your piece on selling LibDems at the start of the election is looking almost as good as your SNP stuff two years ago....AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
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If I had abs like that in my mid 40s, I'd do the same.rkrkrk said:
He is kinda irritating though. Flexing his abs and doing yoga in parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:
Trudeau is a bit of a wally, but he isn't a marxist who sympathizers with terrorists, antisemites, holocaust deniers and also they have a provence system where the likes of BC is very pro startup.Yorkcity said:
Yes you must be a Justin Trudeau supporter.FrancisUrquhart said:
Canada here I come.....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0 -
I took my O levels in 1978. I did London Board and calculus was a significant part of the maths syllabus.OldKingCole said:
Exam boards had more independence then. We took London exams, although the ‘rumour’ was that Oxford was easier. For biological subjects anyway.Carolus_Rex said:
I did calculus at O-Level and I'm 52.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.FrancisUrquhart said:
Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Which real maths did you have in mind?FrancisUrquhart said:
How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?FeersumEnjineeya said:
I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.rkrkrk said:If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:
More of:
Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,
Less:
Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.
Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.
All essays in exams to have word limits.
That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!
Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.
Etc etc etc
I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc0 -
Not sure being 2 or 3 points ahead of Corbyn will be very helpful if the polls are correct.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as she's ahead of Corbyn, that's all that matters.Slackbladder said:
Well they're not going to be 'good' for May are they....TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm waiting for their leader ratings, they are the best predictor.rural_voter said:
Thatcher Mk1 here we come (majority 42)?DanSmith said:
My God.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?0 -
That was always likely with Con in the mid to low 40s anyway. It's can they gain any to make up for it - very few from Labour were viable, and now given the Lab surge that's very very tough. So it's down to Scotland.David_Evershed said:
Equals Lib Dems losing seats?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems are on 7%. No change from last time.AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
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I'm no fan but he is kinda of like having Ed miliband in charge of the uk...You would think he is a bit of a plonker, based a load of his policies on a couple of holiday books he read with dodgy data, but he isn't going totally wreck the joint.rkrkrk said:
He is kinda irritating though. Flexing his abs and doing yoga in parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:
Trudeau is a bit of a wally, but he isn't a marxist who sympathizers with terrorists, antisemites, holocaust deniers and also they have a provence system where the likes of BC is very pro startup.Yorkcity said:
Yes you must be a Justin Trudeau supporter.FrancisUrquhart said:
Canada here I come.....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Corbyn on the other hand, I am genuinely scared what he and his band of marxist / communists will do.0 -
Leeds NW in serious serious trouble to Labour with where that likely 40% is coming fromkle4 said:
That was always likely with Con in the mid to low 40s anyway.David_Evershed said:
Equals Lib Dems losing seats?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems are on 7%. No change from last time.AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
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Weeelll, I suppose you could say that but I would argue that it was a lie. If £350m per week is found from somewhere it still wouldn't be the amount we're 'saving' from leaving the EU.MarqueeMark said:
Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?logical_song said:
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it?MarqueeMark said:Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.0 -
Gaussian distribution and calculus are taught at 14 in some schools, depending on what subjects they take: GCSE Statistics has the Gaussian distribution, and schools taking the International GCSE Maths may do matrices and calculus depending on board.FrancisUrquhart said:
Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.
I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
I also learned these things at 12-15, and it is a big help to being a "maths native".
I'll stick logs there too. Yes, we don't need log tables to do multiplication and division anymore - but plenty of folk don't take A-level maths, but need to do rates of return or growth/decay rate calculations that you really need logs for. Moreover, even candidates taking A-level maths often trip up on logs, seeing them as a complicated algebraic thing rather than a basic tool in the toolbox. (Rather like the trig functions, it often becomes just a button on the calculator to press, with little clear idea what it really "means".) Yet for post A-level work - not just in stats or maths, but science, finance, economics etc - they're really vital, fundamental tools.
If you've been using them since say 14, primarily on mostly numerical rather than algebraic questions to start with, then the laws of logarithms come to seem both natural and obvious, while errors like log(a+b) = log(a) + log(b) or log(a-b) = log(a)/log(b) look nonsensical rather than plausible. Most A-level candidates regard the log laws as an inexplicable, somewhat counterintuitive set of rules that have to be memorised, and frequently cock up their application. Reading the examiners' commentaries to A-level questions with logs in it is utterly depressing (one I looked at yesterday said something like "the vast majority of candidates started by writing log(a+b) = log(a) + log(b), but even of those who scored the first mark, few candidates were able to successfully complete the following algebraic manipulations").
It did rather leave me wondering how do these people actually DO anything? Of course my view is biased because what is an everyday tool for me may never be touched in their lives by others. But if we're in a global race with SIngapore/Hungary/Finland and young people don't want to moaning all over their Twitbook feeds forever about having to work zero hours down the coffee shop after graduating, then more of them need to get their backsides in gear and become 21st-century-numerate. With so many opportunities in ML, Big Data, financial modelling work more-or-less on their doorstep in the City etc, it's crying shame.0 -
AlsoIndigo said:
Lieutenant Colonel John Owlsgore: "Smell that? You smell that? Urine, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of urine in the morning. You know, one time we had a bad poll, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn’t find one of ‘em, not one stinkin’ Tory body. The smell, you know that pee smell, the whole forum. Smelled like… Victory. Someday this election’s gonna end…"
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I've just sold Plaid Cymru at 3.6 on Sporting Index. With the election becoming a two horse race in Wales as well as England, it's hard to see Plaid Cymru increasing their seat count this time round and if Electoral Calculus is to be believed they're at risk of being wiped out on yesterday's poll.MarqueeMark said:
Your piece on selling LibDems at the start of the election is looking almost as good as your SNP stuff two years ago....AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
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Kindly refrain from recounting your morning coffee fantasies ....TheScreamingEagles said:Tories 4 Corbyn deserve to buggered senseless for eternity by fantastically well hung demons wearing Justin Bieber face masks.
Thank you0 -
Thanks. We needed a SunilAlsoIndigo said:Lieutenant Colonel John Owlsgore: "Smell that? You smell that? Urine, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of urine in the morning. You know, one time we had a bad poll, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn’t find one of ‘em, not one stinkin’ Tory body. The smell, you know that pee smell, the whole forum. Smelled like… Victory. Someday this election’s gonna end…"
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Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-hits-40-points-as-women-and-middleaged-voters-desert-theresa-may-a3555376.html
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I did a level maths and also further maths AS.Cyan said:
Anyone who can understand exponentiation can understand logarithms. If a^b = c then b is the log of c to base a.
Before exams I would write down that sentence you just wrote several times because I could never get my head around the notification system for logarithms. Even now I'm not sure if you've written it right.
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Better odds backing Labour in individual constituencies? Certainly less risk...AlastairMeeks said:
I've just sold Plaid Cymru at 3.6 on Sporting Index. With the election becoming a two horse race in Wales as well as England, it's hard to see Plaid Cymru increasing their seat count this time round and if Electoral Calculus is to be believed they're at risk of being wiped out on yesterday's poll.MarqueeMark said:
Your piece on selling LibDems at the start of the election is looking almost as good as your SNP stuff two years ago....AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
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Freggles said:
What fresh hell is this? On a phone poll as well.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Phone polls still suffer from the big question: who actually answers the phone to numbers they don't recognise? And who ignores them?
Maybe the pollsters could phone around and do a survey on this.....0 -
I think it's fair to say that the Tories tactics for dealing with Corbyn have been an unmitigated disaster. Theresa called this election in large part to rip him to shreds, yet it now looks certain he's going to come out of it with his reputation massively enhanced. Seriously... if they can't deal with someone with Jezza's backstory, one has to question if they're capable of doing anything.0
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I suspect the big mistake was May not attending the debate. The public aren't interested in the finer details of policy but they can smell a rat from fifty paces. If you choose not to turn up you are either very entitled or you have something to hide.0
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Yep - they had a tory surge to threaten Brake , Olney and Lamb anyway, a Labour surge puts Mulholland for one under threat, probably Clegg too, it's only Scotland where the SNP are not generally surging that Orkney should, only should, be safe, and enable realistic chances of some gains.Pulpstar said:
Leeds NW in serious serious trouble to Labour with where that likely 40% is coming fromkle4 said:
That was always likely with Con in the mid to low 40s anyway.David_Evershed said:
Equals Lib Dems losing seats?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems are on 7%. No change from last time.AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
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I know we've been through all this before, but for the record, yes, the UK is a signatory to the EEA treaty in its own right, but it is a signatory on the EU side of the treaty, i.e. in its capacity as an EU member state. This is unambiguous from the text..Richard_Tyndall said:Nope because the only way that could happen is if the EEA treaty itself lapsed for all members. The UK is not a signatory via the EU but in its own right.
For the same reason the separate Le Touquet treaty between France and the UK does not lapse at Brexit.
If we leave the EU but the EEA treaty is not modified, the position would be that we'd still be signatories to the EEA treaty, but the rights and obligations of that treaty would be in a sort of legal limbo. We wouldn't automatically transfer over to the other side of the treaty, and magically become one of the named 'EFTA states'.
In practice,all this means simply that if we wanted to transition to EEA membership, we'd need unanimous consent of the EU27 plus the three EEA states (and Switzerland as well, because we'd need to join EFTA). The EEA treaty would then be modified.0 -
I wonder if Tim Farrons Andrew Neil interview car crash has caused thisGarethoftheVale2 said:
That's crazy. I put in 7 LD, 2 UKIP, 1 Green in electoral calculus and got Con maj 20 with Green, UKIP, Plaid being wiped out and only 2 LD (Farron and Williams)asjohnstone said:
Highest 2 party share since the 80s?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
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I don't really get a s**t about the size of May's majorty anymore. I just don't want Corbyn in power.0
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No, although it could be a random error in the direction of Labour. Even perfect pollsters will be subject to these unless they poll the entire country.williamglenn said:
It means that we can't just put the polls down to infiltration of YouGov's panel.rural_voter said:
Thatcher Mk1 here we come (majority 42)?DanSmith said:
My God.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?
Whether or not she wins, I thoroughly agree with the past Tory wet who said
'Large majorities do not make for good govt.'
(c) Francis Pym.
Politics also gets more interesting when the govt has to negotiate with the awkward squad or even with the opposition.
I cannot believe this is what she wanted. But it's possibly also the sort of majority Brown would have won if he'd dissolved parliament at the optimum time.
Betting-wise, I wish this panic would lengthen the odds a little more on a 1983-type landslide. I feel I could do with a bit more of insurance. I've seen so many elections where Labour underperforms nearly all the polls.0 -
The formula demonstrates the elegance, satisfaction, precision and joy inherent in maths.Cyan said:
Up until the 1950s, possibly the 1960s, calculus was certainly taught at O Level. Before then it was taught for the School Certificate that O Levels replaced.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Calculus at 14?FrancisUrquhart said:
Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Which real maths did you have in mind?FrancisUrquhart said:
How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?FeersumEnjineeya said:
I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.rkrkrk said:If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:
More of:
Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,
Less:
Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.
Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.
All essays in exams to have word limits.
That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!
Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.
Etc etc etc
I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
Anyone who can understand exponentiation can understand logarithms.
If a^b = c then b is the log of c to base a.
0 -
THE MORI POLL IS VERY USEFUL GIVEN THAT THEY HAD A SCOTISH ONE YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE BOTH CAN BE USED TOGETHER TO GIVE A FULL GB WIDE PICTURE OF SEATS.-1
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A 15% lead in best PM is still excellent. I've no idea why there's just a 5 point lead when it comes to voting intention?TheScreamingEagles said:Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-hits-40-points-as-women-and-middleaged-voters-desert-theresa-may-a3555376.html0 -
I'm not going to follow in on that, but my welsh portfolio is ok so long as there is no Plaid surge, even though it has a couple of terrible bets in the Gower and Vale of Clwyd. Oh well I've won alot more than I've lost from 1-5 shots and so forth in the past.AlastairMeeks said:
I've just sold Plaid Cymru at 3.6 on Sporting Index. With the election becoming a two horse race in Wales as well as England, it's hard to see Plaid Cymru increasing their seat count this time round and if Electoral Calculus is to be believed they're at risk of being wiped out on yesterday's poll.MarqueeMark said:
Your piece on selling LibDems at the start of the election is looking almost as good as your SNP stuff two years ago....AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
0 -
Unless there's been a substantial change it's likely to be a bigger gap than that.Brom said:
Not sure being 2 or 3 points ahead of Corbyn will be very helpful if the polls are correct.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as she's ahead of Corbyn, that's all that matters.Slackbladder said:
Well they're not going to be 'good' for May are they....TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm waiting for their leader ratings, they are the best predictor.rural_voter said:
Thatcher Mk1 here we come (majority 42)?DanSmith said:
My God.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?0 -
there is no third-party any more - the liberal democrats are done - rip. we are back to a two party system right versus left0
-
£350m per week = £350 x 52 = £18.2bn palogical_song said:
Weeelll, I suppose you could say that but I would argue that it was a lie. If £350m per week is found from somewhere it still wouldn't be the amount we're 'saving' from leaving the EU.MarqueeMark said:
Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?logical_song said:
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it?MarqueeMark said:Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.
We are not saving £18bn by leaving. Most people quote £8bn pa = £153m per week0 -
I had a view that the majority size will remain unchanged at 20-odd. Sticking with that.Slackbladder said:I don't really get a s**t about the size of May's majorty anymore. I just don't want Corbyn in power.
0 -
A lot to learn on social care yes - never be honest that things are difficult and complex, just pledge to do something vague at some point with costing to come from somewhere, to be determined.TheScreamingEagles said:Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-hits-40-points-as-women-and-middleaged-voters-desert-theresa-may-a3555376.html0 -
And is the *VI* heading towards YouGov's, or the methodology?asjohnstone said:5pt headline VI lead, wondering what the raw numbers were before filtering for turnout etc.
0 -
Also, have some nice things in your manifesto. Tories should have promised a post Brexit tax cut or something.kle4 said:
A lot to learn on social care yes - never be honest that things are difficult and complex, just pledge to do something vague at some point with costing to come from somewhere, to be determined.TheScreamingEagles said:Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-hits-40-points-as-women-and-middleaged-voters-desert-theresa-may-a3555376.html0 -
kjohnw said:
I wonder if Tim Farrons Andrew Neil interview car crash has caused thisGarethoftheVale2 said:
That's crazy. I put in 7 LD, 2 UKIP, 1 Green in electoral calculus and got Con maj 20 with Green, UKIP, Plaid being wiped out and only 2 LD (Farron and Williams)asjohnstone said:
Highest 2 party share since the 80s?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Nobody watched - fortunately for Lib Dems.0 -
-
Yes, what a waste of time this could well be. I still think they should double that, but it's not really been worth this.KentRising said:
I had a view that the majority size will remain unchanged at 20-odd. Sticking with that.Slackbladder said:I don't really get a s**t about the size of May's majorty anymore. I just don't want Corbyn in power.
Yep. People say they want options, but they don't, they want two big polarised options, and might say the like middle options but won't for it.kjohnw said:there is no third-party any more - the liberal democrats are done - rip. we are back to a two party system right versus left
0 -
All the Tories had to do was a manifesto on brexit, bins and immigration...The most boring manifesto possible...Then spend a month pointing at labour....That is all they had to fucking do....
Or if they really wanted to be smart could have chucked in say £250-300 million a week extra for nhs....By 2022 (or 2025)...Basically a bit of a bump but most of it inflation, but could have kinda kept the bus promise.0 -
Older people.MarqueeMark said:Phone polls still suffer from the big question: who actually answers the phone to numbers they don't recognise?
Younger people.MarqueeMark said:And who ignores them?
0 -
There is now a real possibility that the Westminster LibDems will just be a party of Scotland on June 9th. The Labour high tide is sweeping up all non-Conservatives before them.kle4 said:
Yep - they had a tory surge to threaten Brake , Olney and Lamb anyway, a Labour surge puts Mulholland for one under threat, probably Clegg too, it's only Scotland where the SNP are not generally surging that Orkney should, only should, be safe, and enable realistic chances of some gains.Pulpstar said:
Leeds NW in serious serious trouble to Labour with where that likely 40% is coming fromkle4 said:
That was always likely with Con in the mid to low 40s anyway.David_Evershed said:
Equals Lib Dems losing seats?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems are on 7%. No change from last time.AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
0 -
Similar politically. But personality wise Ed is a geek with a gift for being awkward.FrancisUrquhart said:
I'm no fan but he is kinda of like having Ed miliband in charge of the uk...You would think he is a bit of a plonker, based a load of his policies on a couple of holiday books he read with dodgy data, but he isn't going totally wreck the joint.rkrkrk said:
He is kinda irritating though. Flexing his abs and doing yoga in parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:
Trudeau is a bit of a wally, but he isn't a marxist who sympathizers with terrorists, antisemites, holocaust deniers and also they have a provence system where the likes of BC is very pro startup.Yorkcity said:
Yes you must be a Justin Trudeau supporter.FrancisUrquhart said:
Canada here I come.....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
Corbyn on the other hand, I am genuinely scared what he and his band of marxist / communists will do.
Trudeau was the cool kid at school who takes selfies and walks around topless.
I offered a bet to TSE - will offer to you.
GDP growth will be higher under PM Corbyn than average of Cameron/May.
Loser gives £20 to a charity of the winners choice?
No PM Corbyn/he gets deposed within 2 years of becoming PM - bet is void.
BC is absolutely gorgeous by the way. Don't blame you if you do move!0 -
He came to York Central the other week in the main square near the Minster .Large crowd varying ages .Good to see people attending and involved .Brom said:
Those sort of rallies will play into Tory hands. The triumphant mob is very unBritish.Yorkcity said:
There will be a large crowd in York tonight singing Jez we can !FrancisUrquhart said:
Canada here I come.....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0 -
that seems a bit strange.Pulpstar said:0 -
Rather counter intuitive, I'd suggest....williamglenn said:
Older people.MarqueeMark said:Phone polls still suffer from the big question: who actually answers the phone to numbers they don't recognise?
Younger people.MarqueeMark said:And who ignores them?
0 -
Bloody hell, the two main parties on 85% between them.
The minor parties almost in danger of being squeezed out of existence if these figures are right.0 -
I think I'll sign off for the election for now. Final prediction Tory majority 30-50, LDs on 6.
I don't believe Labour can have surged so much (though I believe they have surged) as I just cannot accept so many people changed their minds so radically so quickly no matter how good or bad the campaigns have been.0 -
£350m was clearly false but the £153m is also rubbish. The actual amount is around £283m a week as that is the gross payment after the rebate that we make. Counting the net payment is dishonest because of the strings attached to any monies we get back from the EU.Beverley_C said:
£350m per week = £350 x 52 = £18.2bn palogical_song said:
Weeelll, I suppose you could say that but I would argue that it was a lie. If £350m per week is found from somewhere it still wouldn't be the amount we're 'saving' from leaving the EU.MarqueeMark said:
Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?logical_song said:
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it?MarqueeMark said:Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.
We are not saving £18bn by leaving. Most people quote £8bn pa = £153m per week0 -
Certainly not. Anything less than a doubling of the majority will have made it all a farcical waste of time and May will basically be holed below the waterline before the new parliament even opens. It will be the biggest hollow victory in anything I can remember.kle4 said:
Yes, what a waste of time this could well be. I still think they should double that, but it's not really been worth this.KentRising said:
I had a view that the majority size will remain unchanged at 20-odd. Sticking with that.Slackbladder said:I don't really get a s**t about the size of May's majorty anymore. I just don't want Corbyn in power.
But a Tory win is probably good for the country, so there's that. Maybe...
0 -
Link to that view please?KentRising said:
I had a view that the majority size will remain unchanged at 20-odd. Sticking with that.Slackbladder said:I don't really get a s**t about the size of May's majorty anymore. I just don't want Corbyn in power.
Also, the current majority isn't '20-odd'...0 -
Most O-level maths students didn't do calculus - this wasn't just because the boards differed, though that's part of it, but also because they could offer more than one syllabuses. "A" and "B" if I recall, and calculus, if on the spec, was on the least-taken one. Calculus for area, gradient, turning points and kinematics remains on some of the International GCSE specs but not the British GCSE ones. O-level questions sometimes went further than this e.g. volume of revolution (I have an old question somewhere that gives the equations of two parabolas, and requires the volume of revolution of their intersection - a question that would now be considered a harder one on the final-year of A-level!).OldKingCole said:
Exam boards had more independence then. We took London exams, although the ‘rumour’ was that Oxford was easier. For biological subjects anyway.Carolus_Rex said:
I did calculus at O-Level and I'm 52.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.
There's also the rather harder O/A level to confuse matters further, a sort of half-way-house qualification that more advanced students would have taken with their O levels. I wonder if this leads to some false memories of just how hard the O level spec went. The modern equivalent would be the Free-Standing Maths Qualification (FSMQ) or Level 2 Certificate in Further Mathematics, which occupy a similar role as a step forward towards A-level.0 -
I think it's quite likely we'll pay more net after Brexit than before, although not all of that will be direct to the EU. We'll be on market rates rather than subscription rates and they are not necessarily lower.Beverley_C said:
£350m per week = £350 x 52 = £18.2bn palogical_song said:
Weeelll, I suppose you could say that but I would argue that it was a lie. If £350m per week is found from somewhere it still wouldn't be the amount we're 'saving' from leaving the EU.MarqueeMark said:
Except, if it is delivered, it wouldn't be a lie, would it?logical_song said:
That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it?MarqueeMark said:Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.
We are not saving £18bn by leaving. Most people quote £8bn pa = £153m per week0 -
It's unlikely both numbers are correct. We'll find out soon enough.Brom said:
A 15% lead in best PM is still excellent. I've no idea why there's just a 5 point lead when it comes to voting intention?TheScreamingEagles said:Satisfaction with Mrs May among all voters is down from 55 to 43 per cent, her lowest ratings to date.
Gideon Skinner of Ipsos MORI said: “Here’s more evidence of the Conservatives’ wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people.”
Political flak from the elderly care row continued to hit the Tories today. Former Cabinet minister Lady Stowell said there was “a lot that we can learn from the uproar over social care”. The Liberal Democrats erected a mock estate agents outside Tory HQ to symbolise elderly people having to sell their homes.
Today’s research found Lib Dem leader Tim Farron and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are struggling to break through to voters. Only 25% are satisfied with Farron and 18% with Nuttall.
Asked who would be most capable Prime Minister, Mrs May has a clear lead, by 50% to 35%, although the gap has narrowed from 56% to 29% last month.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-hits-40-points-as-women-and-middleaged-voters-desert-theresa-may-a3555376.html0 -
It looks like the Tory share is going to be a lot higher than two years ago, which means they could add an extra 2 million votes. May will point to that as success.kle4 said:
Yes, what a waste of time this could well be. I still think they should double that, but it's not really been worth this.KentRising said:
I had a view that the majority size will remain unchanged at 20-odd. Sticking with that.Slackbladder said:I don't really get a s**t about the size of May's majorty anymore. I just don't want Corbyn in power.
Yep. People say they want options, but they don't, they want two big polarised options, and might say the like middle options but won't for it.kjohnw said:there is no third-party any more - the liberal democrats are done - rip. we are back to a two party system right versus left
0 -
kjohnw said:
there is no third-party any more - the liberal democrats are done - rip. we are back to a two party system right versus left
More like gritty realists v. fantasists.....0 -
I think that's my recollection too (decent comp, but top set)rpjs said:
In the mid-80s we (grammar) started on calculus just before our O-levels but only because we'd completed the syllabus. We weren't examined on it.OldKingCole said:
Back in the 50’s my Grammar School had two maths streams, one for high flyers, who were mainly, although not exclusively in the Science Fourth & Fifth and one for everyone else. Th high flyers did Applied Maths, which included calculus, the rest did Pure Maths, which didn’t.Richard_Tyndall said:
I was surprised to find that Calculus has now moved from GCSE to A level. Again (even though I hated it and still don't get it) it is something with real world applications that should be taught at GCSE level.JonWC said:
Anything involving the exponential function i.e. calculus, probability would be a struggle? Not so much left.. you wouldn't get too advanced with the algebraic structures side of things either.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Which real maths did you have in mind?FrancisUrquhart said:
How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?FeersumEnjineeya said:
I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.rkrkrk said:If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:
More of:
Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,
Less:
Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.
Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.
All essays in exams to have word limits.
That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!0 -
I did basic algebra in the last year of primary school, logarithms in secondary year 2 (12 -13 y.o) matrices, sines, cosines and tangents in secondary 3rd year, calculus in 4th year (start of O Level course).Carolus_Rex said:
I did calculus at O-Level and I'm 52.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.
I remember the calculus module well. The teacher was the head of maths and he was an excellent explainer and he said that we were starting with the most difficult stuff first. It all made such perfect sense and was so clear that I completed the course in one year and did O Level Additional Maths in 5th year.
0 -
Maybe you should go to Canada and see how politics can change so quickly.However Labour never really exceed expectations .The only one I can think of is Feb 1974 .kle4 said:I think I'll sign off for the election for now. Final prediction Tory majority 30-50, LDs on 6.
I don't believe Labour can have surged so much (though I believe they have surged) as I just cannot accept so many people changed their minds so radically so quickly no matter how good or bad the campaigns have been.0 -
Mrs May's majority might now be dependent on the number of gains Ruth Davidson makes. Just like 1992 all over again. 0
-
I'd be very surprised if UKIP is on more than 2. SNP should be on no less than 4 so even allowing for rounding creating a total of 101, that'd only leave 5% to cover Plaid, Greens, UKIP and others.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems are on 7%. No change from last time.AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
0 -
but (imo) plaid's vote comes from 2 distinct areasPulpstar said:
I'm not going to follow in on that, but my welsh portfolio is ok so long as there is no Plaid surge, even though it has a couple of terrible bets in the Gower and Vale of Clwyd. Oh well I've won alot more than I've lost from 1-5 shots and so forth in the past.AlastairMeeks said:
I've just sold Plaid Cymru at 3.6 on Sporting Index. With the election becoming a two horse race in Wales as well as England, it's hard to see Plaid Cymru increasing their seat count this time round and if Electoral Calculus is to be believed they're at risk of being wiped out on yesterday's poll.MarqueeMark said:
Your piece on selling LibDems at the start of the election is looking almost as good as your SNP stuff two years ago....AlastairMeeks said:If Labour are at 40 and the Conservatives are at 45, and the SNP are presumably accounting for 3 or 4 of the rest, what are the Lib Dems and UKIP on?
a) welsh speaking areas in west and north west
b) valleys - where their USP was to be redder than red, more socialist than the maddest of mad labour
the people in a) don't like the policies that appeal to b), but hold their noses for other reasons
the vote in b) is collapsing as corbyn's largesse knows no bounds....
0 -
Does anyone really believe Con+Lab=85% compared to 69% at GE2015?0
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Go back to your constituencies and prepare for communism.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)0
