politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day of the polls tightening but only YouGov has TMay n

The_Apocalypse said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

brokenwheel said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/adwooldridge/status/870335968536129537

Until McDonnell takes over.

2nd term issue?

Wonder if all Labour canvassers are going round like that, will get people crossing the Tory x for sure.

I once went on a stag-do in Bristol West, along the "Greenest" road in the City.

Boy oh boy that was an uncomfortable experience for a sound Tory like me. Although, my flirting (experimental) with a couple of dreadlocked hippie 20-something girls hawking new-age shite outside their home, with reggae and spliffs, went down rather well.

Why do left-wing girls like Tory men so much?

This thing about left wing girls liking Tory men is something I've only ever heard of on PB. I think, as in the States most people in this country have relationships with those who share their politics.

My gf of 7 years was an active member of the Swiss socialist party when we met. I'm about as far away from that as one can be. I have to say she's moved to my position rather than the other way around though, she said she would have voted Con in 2015 if she'd been able to vote.

RobD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Neat bit of Labour campaigning outside Basingstoke railway station earlier: they were handing out leaflets - red on one side, blue on the other - made to look like big train tickets. On the red side was the Labour pledge to nationalize the railways; on the blue side the fare hikes under the Tories. I was expecting a Footite shambles from Labour throughout, but this was punchy and professional.

'This is a nationalised British Rail announcement - the next strike arriving will be on platform four, followed by all other platforms and continuing until a 25% pay rise arrives.'

East Coast mainline ran very well whilst nationalised to be fair though.

With the Tories franchising most rail contracts out to a foreign government it's then hard to argue with a serious face that government can't run things.

Isn't the argument that the government would be more easily coerced by the unions? The german government doesn't care at all about commuters on Southern.

RobD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Neat bit of Labour campaigning outside Basingstoke railway station earlier: they were handing out leaflets - red on one side, blue on the other - made to look like big train tickets. On the red side was the Labour pledge to nationalize the railways; on the blue side the fare hikes under the Tories. I was expecting a Footite shambles from Labour throughout, but this was punchy and professional.

'This is a nationalised British Rail announcement - the next strike arriving will be on platform four, followed by all other platforms and continuing until a 25% pay rise arrives.'

East Coast mainline ran very well whilst nationalised to be fair though.

With the Tories franchising most rail contracts out to a foreign government it's then hard to argue with a serious face that government can't run things.

Isn't the argument that the government would be more easily coerced by the unions? The german government doesn't care at all about commuters on Southern.

Clearly!!

MaxPB said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

brokenwheel said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/adwooldridge/status/870335968536129537

Until McDonnell takes over.

2nd term issue?

Wonder if all Labour canvassers are going round like that, will get people crossing the Tory x for sure.

I once went on a stag-do in Bristol West, along the "Greenest" road in the City.

Boy oh boy that was an uncomfortable experience for a sound Tory like me. Although, my flirting (experimental) with a couple of dreadlocked hippie 20-something girls hawking new-age shite outside their home, with reggae and spliffs, went down rather well.

Why do left-wing girls like Tory men so much?

This thing about left wing girls liking Tory men is something I've only ever heard of on PB. I think, as in the States most people in this country have relationships with those who share their politics.

My gf of 7 years was an active member of the Swiss socialist party when we met. I'm about as far away from that as one can be. I have to say she's moved to my position rather than the other way around though, she said she would have voted Con in 2015 if she'd been able to vote.

Good work!

SeanT said:

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

I think TMay will struggle, badly, if that's all she achieves. She will survive, but there will be plots.

Undoubtedly. She would have pissed away more political capital in a few weeks than even Zac Goldsmith managed. Fwiw. I think she'll get a bigger majority than that. Certainly, 100+ and the mistakes of the campaign would be forgotten within days.

ThomasNashe said:

SeanT said:

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

I think TMay will struggle, badly, if that's all she achieves. She will survive, but there will be plots.

Undoubtedly. She would have pissed away more political capital in a few weeks than even Zac Goldsmith managed. Fwiw. I think she'll get a bigger majority than that. Certainly, 100+ and the mistakes of the campaign would be forgotten within days.

Zac Goldsmith is going to be an MP again in a week too.

The only vote change that I am aware of is someone going from UKIP to CON

PS my OTH 4% includes UKIP

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

SeanT said:

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

I think TMay will struggle, badly, if that's all she achieves. She will survive, but there will be plots.

Undoubtedly. She would have pissed away more political capital in a few weeks than even Zac Goldsmith managed. Fwiw. I think she'll get a bigger majority than that. Certainly, 100+ and the mistakes of the campaign would be forgotten within days.

Zac Goldsmith is going to be an MP again in a week too.

Touch and go, I'd say.

DavidL said:

RobD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

Think of all the extra lives that will be lost when Corbyn and McDonnell's failure to live in economic reality leads to extra tax revenue being pitiful, but spending ballooning the deficit to over £100bn, leading to a deterioration of our credit rating, increase in our debt interest, and, ultimately, the debtors calling in it and very sharp and nasty cuts being required.

Tories have added £700bn to the national debt in 7 years. Something about glass houses comes to mind.

Because cutting the huge deficit left by Labour in one go was simply not possible.

Oh it was. We would just have had to close down the health service. And all the schools. Entirely possible.

I did this calculation for some hedge fund guys.. except I said we would have to close the NHS -twice because of multipliers. They were mostly German but it still got me a good laugh.

MaxPB said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

brokenwheel said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/adwooldridge/status/870335968536129537

Until McDonnell takes over.

2nd term issue?

Wonder if all Labour canvassers are going round like that, will get people crossing the Tory x for sure.

I once went on a stag-do in Bristol West, along the "Greenest" road in the City.

Boy oh boy that was an uncomfortable experience for a sound Tory like me. Although, my flirting (experimental) with a couple of dreadlocked hippie 20-something girls hawking new-age shite outside their home, with reggae and spliffs, went down rather well.

Why do left-wing girls like Tory men so much?

This thing about left wing girls liking Tory men is something I've only ever heard of on PB. I think, as in the States most people in this country have relationships with those who share their politics.

My gf of 7 years was an active member of the Swiss socialist party when we met. I'm about as far away from that as one can be. I have to say she's moved to my position rather than the other way around though, she said she would have voted Con in 2015 if she'd been able to vote.

So this left wing girls/Tory men thing is still something I've only heard about on PB. Although from what you've said it sounds like your gf isn't very left wing anymore - people do tend to change their politics over time though.

As a counter example, there is John and Sally Bercow. He's gone much more to left as a result of being with her.

KentRising said:

Theuniondivvie said:

KentRising said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

CD13 said:

I didn't watch the BBC debates this week but I noticed claims that the audience were rigged. But it could have been that the Jezzarites are noisier.
.

I'm sure that is true - not a single applause line for Rudd though, who particularly at the start was pretty strong, it was bizarre. Nuttal did manage a couple in fairness.

It was fucking ridiculous and the BBC are rightly ashamed (see their comments today). Five mostly tiny left wing parties with an audience full of shouty student twats. Pfff.

Why TM was right not to go. Rise above the political dwarves, especially the 'orrible SNP.

The idea that TMay is somehow a political giant, or even above average height, is certainly...interesting.

Not saying she is, just saying that's what she is wishing to project.

I hope May's not sitting in her favoured bunker and thinking that is what she's projecting.

Though it wouldn't surprise me.

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

The only vote change that I am aware of is someone going from UKIP to CON

My wife is Con to anti-Con. But that's because she knows the local Conservative candidate well.

I so want to know that back story.....

Pong said:

HYUFD said:

Tim Farron had to break up a balloon fight when attending a 10 year olds election debate
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/3692998/tim-farron-has-to-break-up-a-balloon-fight-as-he-prepares-for-tv-election-showdown-with-mock-debate-between-children/amp/

lol

"He was also asked “How did God make the world?”, and “Why does Theresa May want to stop us eating school dinners?”

Am I really voting for this man?

I am (I think). Although I'm slightly embarrassed about it.

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html

I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.

FrankBooth said:

Pong said:

HYUFD said:

Tim Farron had to break up a balloon fight when attending a 10 year olds election debate
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/3692998/tim-farron-has-to-break-up-a-balloon-fight-as-he-prepares-for-tv-election-showdown-with-mock-debate-between-children/amp/

lol

"He was also asked “How did God make the world?”, and “Why does Theresa May want to stop us eating school dinners?”

Am I really voting for this man?

I am (I think). Although I'm slightly embarrassed about it.

Don't worry, a lot of Tories feel that way too.

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

Since you've been brave enough to call it, I'll repeat my own call from a month ago, before narrowing polls and manifesto panic: Con 387, Lab 178. And I still don't think that's likely to be too far off the mark.

I reckon that there is a *lot* of potential in this election for differential swings between seats to markedly affect the result; the polls that show a tight race are very likely making the mistake of greatly over-estimating turnout by young and non-voters; there's the traditional bias in the surveys to Labour and against the Tories; and, with the two main parties attracting an increasingly large share of the vote between them in England and Wales, a relatively modest increase in the gap between those parties could have quite significant effects. I've certainly not given up hope of that fabled landslide yet.

All that said, the immediate priority from a personal point of view is any sort of a Tory win. I have a particular personal interest in things not going crazy over the next few months, so the last thing on Earth I need right now is for the country to have a major spasm of socialist twattery.

10pm June 8th, to be precise. The exit poll won't be wrong.

daodao said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.

Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.

ydoethur said:

hoveite said:

Cyclefree said:

'David Clapson’s awful death was the result of grotesque government policies'

https://tinyurl.com/hqfbzlv

Thank you. I didn't know about that. Horrific.

Why then are Labour not proposing to reverse the benefit cuts and instead wasting money on nationalization or on protecting the inheritances of the well off?

But they are. The Labour manifesto says " We will scrap the punitive sanctions regime". You can't get much clearer than that.

If you imagined that a Corbynite manifesto wouldn't include this commitment you don't have a clue about the British left. It's not like they (we? I think of myself as a centrist) haven't been banging on about it for the last several years.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/20/labour-manifesto-keep-planned-tory-benefit-cuts-resolution-foundation

On R4 this morning the Labour spokeswoman, when repeatedly asked if Labour would reverse the benefits freeze, declined to confirm this. That is what I based my question on.

Perhaps she doesn't understand her own party's manifesto?

ThomasNashe said:

SeanT said:

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

I think TMay will struggle, badly, if that's all she achieves. She will survive, but there will be plots.

Undoubtedly. She would have pissed away more political capital in a few weeks than even Zac Goldsmith managed. Fwiw. I think she'll get a bigger majority than that. Certainly, 100+ and the mistakes of the campaign would be forgotten within days.

If she gets 100 people will ask if she couldn't have got 150.

DavidBrackenbury said:

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

*resists urge to tell incredible stories about Noreena Hertz*

*thinks*

*demands payment from moderators for inhuman restraint*

Nominative determinism?

It is this sort of exchange that is the glory of PB.

Sunil's railway odysseys

Discussions on the best restaurants in Conakry

The Haddock of Morris Dancer...

Oh and there is an election going on too?

Um, I did Hull to Scarborough today, along with Hatfield & Stainforth (nr. Doncaster) to Gilberdyke (E. Riding).

Did Skipton to Settle to Carlisle yesterday

Fenman said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html

I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.

Their share of the vote will be up maybe 2% from 2015. The Tory vote is going to be up something like 7%. Local factors etc but I think that makes gains from the Tories unlikely to me. Not even sure about Uncle Vince in Twickenham to be honest.

Ave_it said:

Wells LD GAIN?????

Bath is the first west country seat to drop, then Cheltenham. Wells alot tougher due to leaveriness and the fact there are more kippers than labour

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/870375815359410176

Polruan said:

Cyclefree said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Cyclefree said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:

So, if you're Labour what do you do? Some people are about to think for the first time 'maybe'. How do they handle that? In the past, Labour has not handled that moment well. How would you play it?

1. Hope. You want better for you and yours than you have now? As the 6th richest economy we don't have to cut everything and everything. We can't afford NOT to invest in our children
2. Decency. This is Britain. My grandfather didn't fight to secure our freedom in order to have veteran soldiers starved to death, the disabled left to lie in their own filth and children going to school hungry because their working parents can't afford food. We are better than this. What the Tories are doing to people is wrong at a very basic moral level, your neighbour is your friend not your enemy if we all pull together

Having spoken to so may people in this campaign my gut feel as to the mad swing is this. The Tory manifesto broke the TINA narrative. People have said "that isn't right" and are willing to vote accordingly. Because whatever your views on the economy these are human beings and our friends family and neighbours being treated by the Tories like scum. And the Tories excuses for working people reliant on foodbanks just doesn't wash any more.

People voted Brexit because they want a better future. Only one party offering details about what that means to them.

Have veteran soldiers starved to death? Awful if true and if down to government inaction or malice.

But has it actually happened? And this is a genuine question BTW.

'David Clapson’s awful death was the result of grotesque government policies'

https://tinyurl.com/hqfbzlv

Thank you. I didn't know about that. Horrific.

Why then are Labour not proposing to reverse the benefit cuts and instead wasting money on nationalization or on protecting the inheritances of the well off?

I guess because of that normal democratic inconvenience: you have to win power to be able to do good. And as any attempt to redress problems of poverty will be seized upon across the popular press as stealing money from struggling nice people, people like our readers, for the benefit of the undeserving poor, it's electoral suicide.

Also, policies around nationalisation, tuition fees and social care would be seen as part of the solution from a Labour perspective: they're about building a society in which more of the risk of misfortune is managed collectively, which is a bigger vision than simply shovelling some cash from the richest to the poorest as a sticking plaster for poverty.

How does nationalisation help manage the risk of misfortune?

@JohnRentoul: Echoes of Brexit in Trump's speech: "green climate fund is costing US a vast fortune"; "a reassertion of America’s sovereignty"...

@JohnRentoul: "It would once have been unthinkable that an international agreement could prevent the US pursuing its own domestic policy."

Richard_Tyndall said:

tlg86 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Neat bit of Labour campaigning outside Basingstoke railway station earlier: they were handing out leaflets - red on one side, blue on the other - made to look like big train tickets. On the red side was the Labour pledge to nationalize the railways; on the blue side the fare hikes under the Tories. I was expecting a Footite shambles from Labour throughout, but this was punchy and professional.

'This is a nationalised British Rail announcement - the next strike arriving will be on platform four, followed by all other platforms and continuing until a 25% pay rise arrives.'

East Coast mainline ran very well whilst nationalised to be fair though.

No where near as well as it did when it was Stagecoach. The service improved vastly when it was first privatised, dropped back a fair bit when it went back into temporary public ownership and has now plummeted under Virgin. There really is a private company that doesn't have the first idea about customer service.

Lol! You do know that VTEC is 90% owned by Stagecoach? The original franchise was GNER and, for what it's worth, I thought their livery was very nice.

I thought GNER was Stagecoach?

All I know is since it went back into private ownership after its sojourn in public hands the service has really deteriorated dramatically. And neither Virgin nor the public ownership were a patch on its GNER days when it really was a pleasure to use the service.

Unfortunately since I object on principle about paying the cost of flying to Aberdeen, Virgin is it whatever their faults.

GNER was Sea Containers. They went bust, and National Express defaulted too.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

ThomasNashe said:

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

SeanT said:

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

I think TMay will struggle, badly, if that's all she achieves. She will survive, but there will be plots.

Undoubtedly. She would have pissed away more political capital in a few weeks than even Zac Goldsmith managed. Fwiw. I think she'll get a bigger majority than that. Certainly, 100+ and the mistakes of the campaign would be forgotten within days.

Zac Goldsmith is going to be an MP again in a week too.

Touch and go, I'd say.

My mole reckons Olney useless, Zac to win.

Given how big the Conservative majority was in 2015, we really should win. That being said, I couldn't vote for Zac, even if he is a Conservative. Were I living in Richmond Park, despite being a Leaver, I'd have something more pressing to do next Thursday. You know, like washing my hair.

I take it you have more hair than Putin then?

I am just glad not to have that issue to be honest. Choosing Zac again was a truly bizarre choice.

DavidL said:

Fenman said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html

I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.

Their share of the vote will be up maybe 2% from 2015. The Tory vote is going to be up something like 7%. Local factors etc but I think that makes gains from the Tories unlikely to me. Not even sure about Uncle Vince in Twickenham to be honest.

Yeah, but the membership has doubled, the number of seats to defend is 9 and the target seats run to 20. Most are not in areas sympathetic to May (though one wonders where is!).

I think the LD vote will be more efficient and will benefit tactically. I am optomistic of overall net gains.

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

If Vince gets back on the 8th, rest assured he'll be doing "private polling" on his chances of being Leader by the 9th!

daodao said:

rcs1000 said:

daodao said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.

Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.

NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.

Seems odd the islands would turn their backs on the LDs after so much time given the Holyrood results in 2016 were strong for the party, even acknowledging Carmichael's weaknesses as a candidate. And they are pretty pro-Union too aren't they?

daodao said:

rcs1000 said:

daodao said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.

Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.

NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.

Last year, the LibDems got 67.4% of the vote in (bizarrely) both Orkney and Shetland in the Holyrood elections. Their vote share was up more than 25 points on 2012, and they outpolled the SNP by more than three times.

They will win Orkney & Shetland by a large margin this year.

Black_Rook said:

MarqueeMark said:

nunu said:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

12% chance of a Labour majority.

6% chance of a Con/Nat Coalition.

In what universe would that 6% chance come off???

Never mind that: a 12% chance of a Labour majority - i.e. Labour gaining nearly a hundred seats. That would take them down the target list about as far as Watford if they can roll back the SNP a bit, or more like Canterbury if they can't. Which is bollocks.

Yes, but even then, surely it is much more than twice as likely bollocks as the bollocks of Salmond and Sturgeon going along with Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May.....

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

340 is a tory majority of 30. Seems a tad pessimistic.

kle4 said:

Fenman said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html

I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.

Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?

I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?

I don't think the LDs will win, but it's worth noting that the LDs had a fabulous local election there last month. Their total number of votes was up about 40% on 2015, while the Labour vote was down.

calum said:

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/870375815359410176

Has she has had a nervous breakdown? I am beginning to start to feel sorry for her. To fear losing to Jeremy Corbyn. It is liked England being knocked out of the Cup by Iceland. Humiliating.

David_Evershed said:

kle4 said:

Fenman said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html

I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.

Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?

I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?

Students already gone on holiday though? So fewer youth votes for labour?

Spread around a bit more, I would have thought.

DavidL said:

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

340 is a tory majority of 30. Seems a tad pessimistic.

HAHAHA! Yes it is! Sorry I meant CON 345 LAB 228!

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

Fenman said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html

I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.

Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?

I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?

I don't think the LDs will win, but it's worth noting that the LDs had a fabulous local election there last month. Their total number of votes was up about 40% on 2015, while the Labour vote was down.

I very much hope Huppert gets in, more realistic than Wells tbh.

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

I think that is too optimistic. Bath won't have any students to bolster the libdem vote. I think it will be one of two in Twickenham and Kingston. And north Norfolk and Ceredigion will go. We may do better in Scotland due to tactical voting of the unionist block, but I'm scarred from last time and paddy ashdown's hat. My jaw is still on the floor.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

ThomasNashe said:

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

SeanT said:

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

I think TMay will struggle, badly, if that's all she achieves. She will survive, but there will be plots.

Undoubtedly. She would have pissed away more political capital in a few weeks than even Zac Goldsmith managed. Fwiw. I think she'll get a bigger majority than that. Certainly, 100+ and the mistakes of the campaign would be forgotten within days.

Zac Goldsmith is going to be an MP again in a week too.

Touch and go, I'd say.

My mole reckons Olney useless, Zac to win.

Given how big the Conservative majority was in 2015, we really should win. That being said, I couldn't vote for Zac, even if he is a Conservative. Were I living in Richmond Park, despite being a Leaver, I'd have something more pressing to do next Thursday. You know, like washing my hair.

But you still thought Zac would win againts Olney.

Nemtynakht said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

Holds
Orkney & Shetland
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Sheffield Hallam
North Norfolk

Gains
Twickenham
Kingston Upon Thames
Edinburgh West
Bath

Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

Losses
Leeds NW to Labour
Richmond Park to Conservative
Southport to Conservative
Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative

I think that is too optimistic. Bath won't have any students to bolster the libdem vote. I think it will be one of two in Twickenham and Kingston. And north Norfolk and Ceredigion will go. We may do better in Scotland due to tactical voting of the unionist block, but I'm scarred from last time and paddy ashdown's hat. My jaw is still on the floor.

Given Plaid is down more than the LibDems on Welsh polling, who are you expecting to win Ceredgion?

Pulpstar said:

I've bought turnout at 63. Here's hoping it is one of my better bets...

over/under or spread?

hoveite said:

Labour are explicitly promising to get rid of sanctions no matter any article in the Guardian says.

They also say they will keep free school meals and massively increase school budgets. The policy they have adopted would massively increase pressure on places and vastly increase costs instead, causing the collapse of the system within months. Without going through it all again, VAT on private school fees would cause the private education system to implode - so the majority of the children there now will come into the state sector and the money Corbyn is greedily anticipating taking in will not materialise.

The reason I mention this again is because Labour's manifesto is actually a tissue of lies, and that is why I link to the analysis not the manifesto itself. Labour say they will get rid of sanctions, but look at the detail and they are keeping the cuts. What is worrying - really worrying - is that most Labour supporters are ignorant of or wilfully blind to this reality, as we see in your posts and indeed on the Guardian and BBC websites where Corbyn's acolytes claim their manifesto is realistic and fully costed.

Let me put it another way. Corbyn portrays himself as an honest, decent and principled man. So far in this campaign he has lied about his spending plans, lied about his links with the IRA and lied about his past principles. Previously, he has lied about his links with Holocaust Denial, lied about not having a seat on a train and lied about the information he was given on the Islington paedophile scandal. The last two were doubly crass because they were unnecessary. So he has also lied about being honest and principled.

Drop the scales and really look at what he's saying. The uncomfortable truth, you will find, is that this is not a bold and redistributive manifesto that will remake Britain's economy in a fair form, but a series of ill-written bribes based on naked greed and hatred to appeal to certain client groups and bugger the rest - including welfare claimants (remember as an aside that Corbyn is from a wealthy background, has never been unemployed and never had to apply for a job. He really has no clue what life is like on welfare).

Which is why I will not be voting for him. He is singularly fortunate in the campaign his two principal opponents are running.

Ave_it said:

Black_Rook said:

Ave_it said:

Here it is!

Ave it says:
- worst campaign ever
- worst manifesto ever
- worst PM ever

But Ave it projects (GB share):
CON 44%
LAB 36%
LD 8%
SNP 4%
GRN 3%
PC 1%
OTH 4%

Seats:
CON 340
LAB 233
LD 6
SNP 50
GRN 0
PC 3
OTH 18

Con maj 40

Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

Since you've been brave enough to call it, I'll repeat my own call from a month ago, before narrowing polls and manifesto panic: Con 387, Lab 178. And I still don't think that's likely to be too far off the mark.

I reckon that there is a *lot* of potential in this election for differential swings between seats to markedly affect the result; the polls that show a tight race are very likely making the mistake of greatly over-estimating turnout by young and non-voters; there's the traditional bias in the surveys to Labour and against the Tories; and, with the two main parties attracting an increasingly large share of the vote between them in England and Wales, a relatively modest increase in the gap between those parties could have quite significant effects. I've certainly not given up hope of that fabled landslide yet.

All that said, the immediate priority from a personal point of view is any sort of a Tory win. I have a particular personal interest in things not going crazy over the next few months, so the last thing on Earth I need right now is for the country to have a major spasm of socialist twattery.

Hello Black Rook I have found your analysis to be really good over the GE period - and hope you are closer to it than I am!

That is very kind - and I hope I'm right as well. Although, in essence, head says a decent Tory majority at least, but heart is very faint. At the moment I am trying to keep my blood pressure under control by having as little as possible to do with the election between now and polling day, although clearly I have failed miserably this evening.

Essentially, the exit poll in about one week and five minutes' time can't come soon enough. After that, hopefully it will be a case of being able to relax, crunch the numbers, and see if the relationship between the Con-Lab vote share gap and their seat totals is anywhere close to my simple model - rather than nail chewing over an unfolding disaster.

ydoethur said:

hoveite said:

Labour are explicitly promising to get rid of sanctions no matter any article in the Guardian says.

They also say they will keep free school meals and massively increase school budgets. The policy they have adopted would massively increase pressure on places and vastly increase costs instead, causing the collapse of the system within months. Without going through it all again, VAT on private school fees would cause the private education system to implode - so the majority of the children there now will come into the state sector and the money Corbyn is greedily anticipating taking in will not materialise.

The reason I mention this again is because Labour's manifesto is actually a tissue of lies, and that is why I link to the analysis not the manifesto itself. Labour say they will get rid of sanctions, but look at the detail and they are keeping the cuts. What is worrying - really worrying - is that most Labour supporters are ignorant of or wilfully blind to this reality, as we see in your posts and indeed on the Guardian and BBC websites where Corbyn's acolytes claim their manifesto is realistic and fully costed.

Let me put it another way. Corbyn portrays himself as an honest, decent and principled man. So far in this campaign he has lied about his spending plans, lied about his links with the IRA and lied about his past principles. Previously, he has lied about his links with Holocaust Denial, lied about not having a seat on a train and lied about the information he was given on the Islington paedophile scandal. The last two were doubly crass because they were unnecessary. So he has also lied about being honest and principled.

Drop the scales and really look at what he's saying. The uncomfortable truth, you will find, is that this is not a bold and redistributive manifesto that will remake Britain's economy in a fair form, but a series of ill-written bribes based on naked greed and hatred to appeal to certain client groups and bugger the rest - including welfare claimants (remember as an aside that Corbyn is from a wealthy background, has never been unemployed and never had to apply for a job. He really has no clue what life is like on welfare).

Which is why I will not be voting for him. He is singularly fortunate in the campaign his two principal opponents are running.

Hear hear.

Scott_P said:

@tom_nuttall: Someone missing, can't quite put my finger on it... https://twitter.com/AP/status/870381220449923073

That we're not included shows we're now irrelevant post brexit, end of civilization etc etc

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

hoveite said:

Cyclefree said:

'David Clapson’s awful death was the result of grotesque government policies'

https://tinyurl.com/hqfbzlv

Thank you. I didn't know about that. Horrific.

Why then are Labour not proposing to reverse the benefit cuts and instead wasting money on nationalization or on protecting the inheritances of the well off?

But they are. The Labour manifesto says " We will scrap the punitive sanctions regime". You can't get much clearer than that.

If you imagined that a Corbynite manifesto wouldn't include this commitment you don't have a clue about the British left. It's not like they (we? I think of myself as a centrist) haven't been banging on about it for the last several years.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/20/labour-manifesto-keep-planned-tory-benefit-cuts-resolution-foundation

On R4 this morning the Labour spokeswoman, when repeatedly asked if Labour would reverse the benefits freeze, declined to confirm this. That is what I based my question on.

Perhaps she doesn't understand her own party's manifesto?

No. She clearly understands it very well if she was evasive - see above. Corbyn would just have confirmed that he would, I think, and assumed nobody would challenge him (a safe assumption as you can see above).

The Labour voters don't understand it, however, as we see here, and she clearly dared not enlighten them. Dementia tax would be a teddy bears' picnic by comparison.

I am off to bed. Have a good evening.

Restharrow said:

If tuition fees are the answer the question must have been: how the hell can we afford to feed all these useless social 'scientists' who would be a major problem in any other organisation that was persuaded to employ them?

You have to look at the initial problem:

1) how do we hide youth unemployment / how do we meet the need for a more educated workforce?

Which quickly moved on to a second issue

2) Now we are paying for 50% of 18 year olds to go to union how do we pay for it...

Saltire said:

daodao said:

rcs1000 said:

daodao said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

El_Capitano said:

!

I

That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.

Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.

NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.

There is no chance that the Tories win in NE Fife. I will happily wager with you that the LDs are ahead of them on the 8th.
Indeed I think that the chances of this being a LD gain is at least 50%. (Might be slightly biased since I have been doing a fair bit of campaigning in the seat but it feels like it very close)

I think it was Electoral Calculus who had it as a Tory gain. I was somewhat bemused. The risk, as with everywhere in Scotland is that it ends up with the Unionist vote splitting 10,20,30 with the SNP on 40.