To be honest, I'm surprised people haven't focussed more on the (if I understood it correctly) ICM analysis of performance in the marginal. (IIRC Con 5% ahead in Lab held marginals and 1% ahead in Tory ones). I don't understand why this doesn't put large numbers of Con seats at risk (even if they were to be compensated by gains elsewhere)? Or are there far more Labour held "marginals" than Tory ones?
Possibly a dumb question, but: do the pollsters ask if respondents are registered to vote? All very well having 10/10 intention to vote if on the day you find you can't because you never got around to registering!
I know for certain that some are currently asking that question (can't remember who) but not all are reporting it if they are asking it
To be honest, I'm surprised people haven't focussed more on the (if I understood it correctly) ICM analysis of performance in the marginal. (IIRC Con 5% ahead in Lab held marginals and 1% ahead in Tory ones). I don't understand why this doesn't put large numbers of Con seats at risk (even if they were to be compensated by gains elsewhere)? Or are there far more Labour held "marginals" than Tory ones?
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Despite all the p*ss and wind of the campaign and the p*ss filled undergarments of various Conservative nervous nellies, the only election related "tightening" I've seen recently is the grip of Mrs JackW on my profits !!
Undeserved Con Landslide A Week Away ....
Well Jack, you were right last time when all about were panicking about Ed Mili becoming PM, I hope you are right this time. I have faith in your judgement, and yes it will be an undeserved victory, but the thought of Corbyn in charge.....
PBers rightly enjoy all the cut and thrust of elections and the more so at a general election. Every twist and turn is over-analysed, every misplaced vowel or minor misstep is deemed to be a catastrophic error.
We all guffaw at SeanT's bipolar musings and Nick Palmers dispatches from the front. Mark Senior is roundly abused for fighting his corner with all the dexterity of a synchronised swimmer and we all worry that malcolmg will fail to gather the turnip crop whilst campaigning for independence for Ayrshire farmers.
That said all the evidence for a Conservative landslide is there for all to see. Seemingly hiding in plain sight, but there are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
JackW and his bank balance thanks them all most heartily.
I go back to my "Russian Front" negotiation strategy. Presented with two options where one is being sent to fight on the russian front, the other remaining option - however unpalatable - is the better one. In a general election the choice is always a Labour government or a Tory government.
Whats mind-blowing is the level of hubris in that Tory manifesto that literally punches their own supporters in the stomach and says "there is no alternative". And to those people who aren't hardened supporters but have swayed Tory as recently as 2015 its "we literally take you for granted because you have no choice".
So regardless of the collected wisdom of views on Jezbollah, when he is left as the least worst option by the PM herself thats when "bollocks to TINA!" comes into play and people vote Brexit/Trump/Corbyn. Up here on Teesside the Tory-leaning paper is reporting her visit to Guisborough with a sarcastic portrait of being refused proper access to her and "on a knife-edge" polls for MSEC and my own Stockton South.
So bring it on. She's Frit. She's being routed. And next week she'll be gone.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole Solid day for PM. Seems v comfortable on the reaffirming Brexit ground. Doing a bit of panto with party faithful. Read all about it at 2200
That's a relief! According to some she's on her deathbed
I go back to my "Russian Front" negotiation strategy. Presented with two options where one is being sent to fight on the russian front, the other remaining option - however unpalatable - is the better one. In a general election the choice is always a Labour government or a Tory government.
Whats mind-blowing is the level of hubris in that Tory manifesto that literally punches their own supporters in the stomach and says "there is no alternative". And to those people who aren't hardened supporters but have swayed Tory as recently as 2015 its "we literally take you for granted because you have no choice".
So regardless of the collected wisdom of views on Jezbollah, when he is left as the least worst option by the PM herself thats when "bollocks to TINA!" comes into play and people vote Brexit/Trump/Corbyn. Up here on Teesside the Tory-leaning paper is reporting her visit to Guisborough with a sarcastic portrait of being refused proper access to her and "on a knife-edge" polls for MSEC and my own Stockton South.
So bring it on. She's Frit. She's being routed. And next week she'll be gone.
I refer the Honourable gentleman to his 2015 general election prediction.
Steady the Buffs! Not the best campaign to say the least, but whatever faults Theresa has, she isn't Frit. Let's all take a pause and see what happens as we go into the last week of polling. Jack W as Custodian of the ARSE is a very calm reporter of developments and one that should be listened to with close attention! Also an opportunity to make some interesting bets.
A basic question - how do the different pollsters differ in their construction of online polls (which I think they almost all do now). We know that YouGov has a panel and therefore polls the same people repeatedly. How, for example, does ICM do it?
So, if you're Labour what do you do? Some people are about to think for the first time 'maybe'. How do they handle that? In the past, Labour has not handled that moment well. How would you play it?
1. Hope. You want better for you and yours than you have now? As the 6th richest economy we don't have to cut everything and everything. We can't afford NOT to invest in our children 2. Decency. This is Britain. My grandfather didn't fight to secure our freedom in order to have veteran soldiers starved to death, the disabled left to lie in their own filth and children going to school hungry because their working parents can't afford food. We are better than this. What the Tories are doing to people is wrong at a very basic moral level, your neighbour is your friend not your enemy if we all pull together
Having spoken to so may people in this campaign my gut feel as to the mad swing is this. The Tory manifesto broke the TINA narrative. People have said "that isn't right" and are willing to vote accordingly. Because whatever your views on the economy these are human beings and our friends family and neighbours being treated by the Tories like scum. And the Tories excuses for working people reliant on foodbanks just doesn't wash any more.
People voted Brexit because they want a better future. Only one party offering details about what that means to them.
I have to say based on the polls in the Wikipedia article that the Conservatives are at real risk of losing their majority. The trend has continued to go against the Tories since Manchester. It's not just the Dementia Tax. If the decline continues next week we'll see a consensus of polls in the middle single digits, ie the same as last time.
If it is the same why would you assume they'd do even worse? Expecting Lab to outperform in the marginals?
Also, weren't the polls much closer than 'mid single digit leads' for Con, or am I remembering wrong?
You can't predict a loss of precisely 6 seats to a loss of overall majority.If they do about the same as now, they could lose a bunch along with their majority or gain a bunch and breathe a sigh of relief. And btw, that's the consensus of polls. The consensus will likely be wrong. If the downward trend continues next week, Yougov might see the Conservatives level pegging with Labour while ICM could still show a much healthier margin. Finally the new lack of viable third parties will affect the FPTP seat results. There's a lot of uncertainty but I would say there's a significant albeit smaller risk of a hung parliament on these figures. That risk will get bigger if the trends continue.
So, if you're Labour what do you do? Some people are about to think for the first time 'maybe'. How do they handle that? In the past, Labour has not handled that moment well. How would you play it?
1. Hope. You want better for you and yours than you have now? As the 6th richest economy we don't have to cut everything and everything. We can't afford NOT to invest in our children 2. Decency. This is Britain. My grandfather didn't fight to secure our freedom in order to have veteran soldiers starved to death, the disabled left to lie in their own filth and children going to school hungry because their working parents can't afford food. We are better than this. What the Tories are doing to people is wrong at a very basic moral level, your neighbour is your friend not your enemy if we all pull together
Having spoken to so may people in this campaign my gut feel as to the mad swing is this. The Tory manifesto broke the TINA narrative. People have said "that isn't right" and are willing to vote accordingly. Because whatever your views on the economy these are human beings and our friends family and neighbours being treated by the Tories like scum. And the Tories excuses for working people reliant on foodbanks just doesn't wash any more.
People voted Brexit because they want a better future. Only one party offering details about what that means to them.
Tories are scum. Tories are morally wrong. Tories aren't decent.
Nothing changes from the Labour hymnsheet, does it?
I go back to my "Russian Front" negotiation strategy. Presented with two options where one is being sent to fight on the russian front, the other remaining option - however unpalatable - is the better one. In a general election the choice is always a Labour government or a Tory government.
Whats mind-blowing is the level of hubris in that Tory manifesto that literally punches their own supporters in the stomach and says "there is no alternative". And to those people who aren't hardened supporters but have swayed Tory as recently as 2015 its "we literally take you for granted because you have no choice".
So regardless of the collected wisdom of views on Jezbollah, when he is left as the least worst option by the PM herself thats when "bollocks to TINA!" comes into play and people vote Brexit/Trump/Corbyn. Up here on Teesside the Tory-leaning paper is reporting her visit to Guisborough with a sarcastic portrait of being refused proper access to her and "on a knife-edge" polls for MSEC and my own Stockton South.
So bring it on. She's Frit. She's being routed. And next week she'll be gone.
I refer the Honourable gentleman to his 2015 general election prediction.
Steady the Buffs! Not the best campaign to say the least, but whatever faults Theresa has, she isn't Frit. Let's all take a pause and see what happens as we go into the last week of polling. Jack W as Custodian of the ARSE is a very calm reporter of developments and one that should be listened to with close attention! Also an opportunity to make some interesting bets.
Tories panicking like an Italian tank commander who cannt engage reverse gear.
Whilst I agree Corbyn has enthused younger voters it is very difficult to know where this may make a difference as the universities will have broken up so they will be dispersed across probably mainly middle class seats across the country. Are they registered to vote in the right place? Are the very and enthusiastic minority representative of all 18 - 24 year olds. My tip would be to look at places where there are lots of young professionals, nurses etc. Somewhere like Birmingham Edgbaston where you have young professionals in Harborne, its close to University for the people staying around over the summer, and also you have Queen Elizabeth Hospital so nurses etc in training, and large public sector employment.
Many of the students will be registered to vote at Uni as a result of the recent registration drives. A chunk of them will not be there on the day - and I suspect the bulk will not have a postal vote.
I expect the under 25s to disappoint on the downside yet again. Knock a point off Labour, but perhaps not much more. But their not being there will push up the proportion of voters going Tory as a result. Stick another point on the blues.
Yes that's why I am suggesting that this seat my buck the trend as it has the young professionals, university employees, huge hospital employees.
The other seat I think could be interesting in the opposite direction is Stroud. The town is very eco friendly and a bit hippyish, there are two excellent grammars, so their ex students may be back from Uni and voting at home. The whole place has a kind of Corbyn vibe about it. If you look at past elections labour could sneak up to around twenty five thousand votes which could be enough to sneak past the Tory. It would depend on the UKIP vote splits.
>My grandfather didn't fight to secure our freedom in order to have veteran soldiers starved to death, the disabled left to lie in their own filth and children going to school hungry because their working parents can't afford food. We are better than this. What the Tories are doing to people is wrong at a very basic moral level, your neighbour is your friend not your enemy if we all pull together
Normal people do not see that choice as that stark. The idea one party brings that hellscape and the other a utopian vision makes no sense - if that were the case, you wouldn't get millions and millions voting for both sides.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam PM says the big risk in election is her losing 6 seats. Though she is talking from Margaret Beckett's Derby S seat with 9k Lab majority
If I was running the Lab campaign I would need creating situations where he looked prime ministerial. He has gained a lot of gravitas since he started,. I wonder if they can create a situation to place him as a PM.
You know, the opposite of EdStone or meeting Russell what's his face.
How about a nuclear attack scenario, or one where he has to make tough decisions in response to a terror attack?
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole Solid day for PM. Seems v comfortable on the reaffirming Brexit ground. Doing a bit of panto with party faithful. Read all about it at 2200
That's a relief! According to some she's on her deathbed
Did the party faithful ask her any searching questions, do we think, like what does Brexit mean?
Despite all the p*ss and wind of the campaign and the p*ss filled undergarments of various Conservative nervous nellies, the only election related "tightening" I've seen recently is the grip of Mrs JackW on my profits !!
The more I see of Trump's dangerous eccentricity the more I'm coming to the view that Corbyn might be the safer option.
May seems so desperate for allies post Brexit that like Blair before her she could well become the poodle of whoever is in the Whie House. Not usually dangerous but we've never had a POTUS like Trump before.
Both she and Johnson have talked about the closeness of their relationship. Corbyn like other European leaders is much more likely to keep his distance.
I go back to my "Russian Front" negotiation strategy. Presented with two options where one is being sent to fight on the russian front, the other remaining option - however unpalatable - is the better one. In a general election the choice is always a Labour government or a Tory government.
Whats mind-blowing is the level of hubris in that Tory manifesto that literally punches their own supporters in the stomach and says "there is no alternative". And to those people who aren't hardened supporters but have swayed Tory as recently as 2015 its "we literally take you for granted because you have no choice".
So regardless of the collected wisdom of views on Jezbollah, when he is left as the least worst option by the PM herself thats when "bollocks to TINA!" comes into play and people vote Brexit/Trump/Corbyn. Up here on Teesside the Tory-leaning paper is reporting her visit to Guisborough with a sarcastic portrait of being refused proper access to her and "on a knife-edge" polls for MSEC and my own Stockton South.
So bring it on. She's Frit. She's being routed. And next week she'll be gone.
I refer the Honourable gentleman to his 2015 general election prediction.
Steady the Buffs! Not the best campaign to say the least, but whatever faults Theresa has, she isn't Frit. Let's all take a pause and see what happens as we go into the last week of polling. Jack W as Custodian of the ARSE is a very calm reporter of developments and one that should be listened to with close attention! Also an opportunity to make some interesting bets.
Tories panicking like an Italian tank commander who cannt engage reverse gear.
People do get excited Foxy! But there isn't a huge change on the ground. Never mind reverse gear, keep going!!
The real exit poll is done by Ipsos MORI and GfK NOP, face to face, at polling stations across the country.
I suspect YouGov will do an on the day, how people voted poll.
It was sh** last time, let's be honest. It gave the LD false hope...
and UKIP
13% and no seats... painful for the pocket
A repeat will be even more expensive!
Swings and roundabouts with the EU referendum a year later.
Yes all was well in the end. I quite flukily won a load of money on the referendum as my bets went so far underwater it wasn't worth cashing out for a loss... then they won!
Did you see the Farage and Rachel Johnson lunch date? He more or less said he never wanted to be an MP anyway but had to stand.. I guess people will say that's just because he lost, but I don't think he would be a good MP anyway, he just wanted to Leave the EU
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Indeed.
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
The real exit poll is done by Ipsos MORI and GfK NOP, face to face, at polling stations across the country.
I suspect YouGov will do an on the day, how people voted poll.
It was sh** last time, let's be honest. It gave the LD false hope...
and UKIP
13% and no seats... painful for the pocket
A repeat will be even more expensive!
Swings and roundabouts with the EU referendum a year later.
Yes all was well in the end
Did you see the Farage and Rachel Johnson lunch date? He more or less said he never wanted to be an MP anyway but had to stand.. I guess people will say that's just because he lost, but I don't think he would be a good MP anyway, he just wanted to Leave the EU
Yeah, I thought it was pretty funny. And I dunno, I have always thought he would fit right at home with the bastards on the Tory back benches
Whilst I agree Corbyn has enthused younger voters it is very difficult to know where this may make a difference as the universities will have broken up so they will be dispersed across probably mainly middle class seats across the country. Are they registered to vote in the right place? Are the very and enthusiastic minority representative of all 18 - 24 year olds. My tip would be to look at places where there are lots of young professionals, nurses etc. Somewhere like Birmingham Edgbaston where you have young professionals in Harborne, its close to University for the people staying around over the summer, and also you have Queen Elizabeth Hospital so nurses etc in training, and large public sector employment.
Many of the students will be registered to vote at Uni as a result of the recent registration drives. A chunk of them will not be there on the day - and I suspect the bulk will not have a postal vote.
I expect the under 25s to disappoint on the downside yet again. Knock a point off Labour, but perhaps not much more. But their not being there will push up the proportion of voters going Tory as a result. Stick another point on the blues.
Yes that's why I am suggesting that this seat my buck the trend as it has the young professionals, university employees, huge hospital employees.
The other seat I think could be interesting in the opposite direction is Stroud. The town is very eco friendly and a bit hippyish, there are two excellent grammars, so their ex students may be back from Uni and voting at home. The whole place has a kind of Corbyn vibe about it. If you look at past elections labour could sneak up to around twenty five thousand votes which could be enough to sneak past the Tory. It would depend on the UKIP vote splits.
Stroud was one of this weird red blobs on the map up to 2010 that made you go "eh???"
So, if you're Labour what do you do? Some people are about to think for the first time 'maybe'. How do they handle that? In the past, Labour has not handled that moment well. How would you play it?
1. Hope. You want better for you and yours than you have now? As the 6th richest economy we don't have to cut everything and everything. We can't afford NOT to invest in our children 2. Decency. This is Britain. My grandfather didn't fight to secure our freedom in order to have veteran soldiers starved to death, the disabled left to lie in their own filth and children going to school hungry because their working parents can't afford food. We are better than this. What the Tories are doing to people is wrong at a very basic moral level, your neighbour is your friend not your enemy if we all pull together
Having spoken to so may people in this campaign my gut feel as to the mad swing is this. The Tory manifesto broke the TINA narrative. People have said "that isn't right" and are willing to vote accordingly. Because whatever your views on the economy these are human beings and our friends family and neighbours being treated by the Tories like scum. And the Tories excuses for working people reliant on foodbanks just doesn't wash any more.
People voted Brexit because they want a better future. Only one party offering details about what that means to them.
Have veteran soldiers starved to death? Awful if true and if down to government inaction or malice.
But has it actually happened? And this is a genuine question BTW.
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
Sir Pat the right man to send to Skinners patch with the mining connection and all. And yes this will be a VERY non UNS election I think.
Have any Conservative big-shots been to NED ?
We've had three Cabinet minsters go to Bolsover in the last ten days.
Not that I can recall - I've had three (very good) pieces of literature from Lee and one from Natascha though. If its differential turnout the Tories are looking for then they'll probably be focussing more on Dronfield than Killamarsh though.
I see that Trump is indeed pulling the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement. This is sure to have a major effect on international relations.
It'll actually have very little impact now. With natural gas and solar being so cheap, and electric cars becoming increasingly affordable, the US is going to be moving away from gasoline and coal, irrespective of what the polticians say and do.
There's a reason why China has signed up: they know that their CO2 emissions are going down anyway.
The more I see of Trump's dangerous eccentricity the more I'm coming to the view that Corbyn might be the safer option.
May seems so desperate for allies post Brexit that like Blair before her she could well become the poodle of whoever is in the Whie House. Not usually dangerous but we've never had a POTUS like Trump before.
Both she and Johnson have talked about the closeness of their relationship. Corbyn like other European leaders is much more likely to keep his distance.
Who will stand up to Trump. Corbyn or May? Interesting angle, but not sure Trump motivates UK voters who are possible con lab switchers.
So, if you're Labour what do you do? Some people are about to think for the first time 'maybe'. How do they handle that? In the past, Labour has not handled that moment well. How would you play it?
1. Hope. You want better for you and yours than you have now? As the 6th richest economy we don't have to cut everything and everything. We can't afford NOT to invest in our children 2. Decency. This is Britain. My grandfather didn't fight to secure our freedom in order to have veteran soldiers starved to death, the disabled left to lie in their own filth and children going to school hungry because their working parents can't afford food. We are better than this. What the Tories are doing to people is wrong at a very basic moral level, your neighbour is your friend not your enemy if we all pull together
Having spoken to so may people in this campaign my gut feel as to the mad swing is this. The Tory manifesto broke the TINA narrative. People have said "that isn't right" and are willing to vote accordingly. Because whatever your views on the economy these are human beings and our friends family and neighbours being treated by the Tories like scum. And the Tories excuses for working people reliant on foodbanks just doesn't wash any more.
People voted Brexit because they want a better future. Only one party offering details about what that means to them.
Have veteran soldiers starved to death? Awful if true and if down to government inaction or malice.
But has it actually happened? And this is a genuine question BTW.
If they have I suspect it will have been the result of inadequate mental health provision.
I actually think that the explanation to the way the polls are going is quite obvious, the panels are self selecting and unlikely to attract a voter who is genuinely undecided. The anectdotal evidence of the lack of posters and leaflets in marginal constituenc being far less than before implies that he campaign is "under the radar" . The big question is will the 18-35 age group turn out? Having watched the effectiveness of Tory targeting in lib dem seats in 2015 being so successful I seriously doubt if a lot of the polls reflect the true position. Whilst there are not many hats left to eat I think there may be excessive sheet changing in some quarters. Now this is from someone who's hope and expectations on ED is Lib Dems in double figures and not caring what else happens is neither ramping or hot air
If Conservative targeting was effective in 2015, does it necessarily follow that it's as effective this time?
Incidentally, if anyone is interested in these things, I received a bundle of GE leaflets today, delivered by the postman. (LD, Lab, Con, Green). Prior to that I'd only had leaflets delivered prior to the locals - 2 Con GE leaflets. (Newton Abbot constituency.)
Good evening, everyone.
Postman delivered leaflets are part of the free post or are very expensive to deliver. I doubt if many constiuency es Don't get at least on leaflet by this means. After that it is down to activists and available finance. I was only trying to make the point that The world of campaigning is changing. We only ever delivered "polling day" leaflets to assumed supporters. We have moved on and embraced demographic marketing. The first party to use the technique was the Sdp when using prism they identified red wine drinking Volvo owners with a few other key markers to build their party. They can now target you on what you "like" "friend" etc and where you live. Yes not everybody is on Facebook/twitter But the rules of the game are changing
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Indeed.
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
The more I see of Trump's dangerous eccentricity the more I'm coming to the view that Corbyn might be the safer option.
May seems so desperate for allies post Brexit that like Blair before her she could well become the poodle of whoever is in the Whie House. Not usually dangerous but we've never had a POTUS like Trump before.
Both she and Johnson have talked about the closeness of their relationship. Corbyn like other European leaders is much more likely to keep his distance.
Very true about Corbyn - he'll be too busy brown-nosing the Hamas leadership to bother with Trump.
Steady the Buffs! Not the best campaign to say the least, but whatever faults Theresa has, she isn't Frit. Let's all take a pause and see what happens as we go into the last week of polling. Jack W as Custodian of the ARSE is a very calm reporter of developments and one that should be listened to with close attention! Also an opportunity to make some interesting bets.
The Conservative campaign has been a shambles. Much worse than I expected even given that the PM is a poor proponent of their cause. She simply doesn't do public empathy or passion.
So whilst the Conservative roof is losing some roof tiles, the windows require attention and the kitchen aga has failed, the foundations of the election house remain solid.
Corbyn's tent has come up for the summer. People like the look of it for a few weeks but they are not pitching to live there for the next five years.
Labour supporters had steeled themselves for a big loss, now this is happening. When the Tories win comfortably next week it's going to hit a lot of them very hard. Hopefully, there will be no quick response this time. A period of reflection will be needed. The party seems to be more united than it has been for a long time. It will take titanic willpower and uncommon good sense to sustain that after a mind-sapping, hideously demoralising defeat.
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Indeed.
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
By 1am Battersea should have declared.
That might be our Nuneaton.
London feels different from the rest of the country at the moment, like it did this time last year
The more I see of Trump's dangerous eccentricity the more I'm coming to the view that Corbyn might be the safer option.
May seems so desperate for allies post Brexit that like Blair before her she could well become the poodle of whoever is in the Whie House. Not usually dangerous but we've never had a POTUS like Trump before.
Both she and Johnson have talked about the closeness of their relationship. Corbyn like other European leaders is much more likely to keep his distance.
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Indeed.
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
By 1am Battersea should have declared.
That might be our Nuneaton.
At that point you'll know whether you'll be richer than Kroesus or having a good chat with the bank manager the next week.
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Indeed.
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
By 1am Battersea should have declared.
That might be our Nuneaton.
At that point you'll know whether you'll be richer than Kroesus or having a good chat with the bank manager the next week.
I reckon it'll be 1.30am when Darlington and Wrexham declare.
The real exit poll is done by Ipsos MORI and GfK NOP, face to face, at polling stations across the country.
I suspect YouGov will do an on the day, how people voted poll.
It was sh** last time, let's be honest. It gave the LD false hope...
and UKIP
13% and no seats... painful for the pocket
A repeat will be even more expensive!
Swings and roundabouts with the EU referendum a year later.
Yes all was well in the end. I quite flukily won a load of money on the referendum as my bets went so far underwater it wasn't worth cashing out for a loss... then they won!
Did you see the Farage and Rachel Johnson lunch date? He more or less said he never wanted to be an MP anyway but had to stand.. I guess people will say that's just because he lost, but I don't think he would be a good MP anyway, he just wanted to Leave the EU
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Indeed.
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
By 1am Battersea should have declared.
That might be our Nuneaton.
London feels different from the rest of the country at the moment, like it did this time last year
London has been different to the rest of the country for about ten years now.
I see that Trump is indeed pulling the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement. This is sure to have a major effect on international relations.
It'll actually have very little impact now. With natural gas and solar being so cheap, and electric cars becoming increasingly affordable, the US is going to be moving away from gasoline and coal, irrespective of what the polticians say and do.
There's a reason why China has signed up: they know that their CO2 emissions are going down anyway.
Also many US states will continue to abide by it regardless of what Trump decides.
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Indeed.
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
By 1am Battersea should have declared.
That might be our Nuneaton.
At that point you'll know whether you'll be richer than Kroesus or having a good chat with the bank manager the next week.
I reckon it'll be 1.30am when Darlington and Wrexham declare.
Peter_from-Putney said: 'Even at this late stage of the GE campaign, one still stumbles across some staggering unlikely predictions. A case in point is the West Wales constituency of Preseli Pembrokeshire, just about as safe a Tory seat as one is likely to find in the entire principality, as reflected by the betting odds, where the most "generous" price available on the Tories is the 1/25 available from Betfair Sportsbook, while those nice folk at Bet365 will give you odds of 18/1 against Labour capturing this seat from the Blue Team. The outcome therefore is absolutely cut and dried or at least so one would have thought ....... but wait ....... along comes Chris Hanretty's Election Forecast team who decides that this is the third most likely seat Labour is capable of capturing in the entire nation and equally the third most likely seat the Tories are likely to lose, in both instances making this a 76% likelihood, or a better than 3 in 4 chance of actually happening. Is there something unusual about this seat which I've missed or has it somehow slipped through the most elementary of filters presumably applied by Election Forecast to result in such a seemingly near impossible result. I thought it was pushing things somewhat to imagine that either the Tories or Labour could conceivably win Brighton Pavilion, but this seems to take things onto an entirely new level. '
Your impression of how Tory this seat is a bit exaggerated I suggest. I grew up in Pembrokeshire , and can assure you that it is far from being a solid Tory seat.Under existing boundaries it was comfortably Labour - held 1997 - 2005 when it was narrowly lost to Stephen Crabb.Even in 2015 the Tory majority was less than 5000 and it remains very winnable for Labour in a good year - though I do not expect that to happen next week. Crabb has been personally damaged by last year's revelations re-the sex texts he sent - in the context of his declared strong Christian views - and I will not be surprised to see his majority suffer as a result. Unlikely that he will lose , but the seat is nothing like as safe as - say - Monmouth or possibly West Carmarthen & Pembrokeshire South.
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
I reckon we'll get some fun, Tories missing target seats in the 20-30 range, but winning seats way down the target seats, maybe target seats in the 80s.
Indeed.
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
By 1am Battersea should have declared.
That might be our Nuneaton.
London feels different from the rest of the country at the moment, like it did this time last year
London has been different to the rest of the country for about ten years now.
I think London has been different for about two millennia.
Despite all the p*ss and wind of the campaign and the p*ss filled undergarments of various Conservative nervous nellies, the only election related "tightening" I've seen recently is the grip of Mrs JackW on my profits !!
The real exit poll is done by Ipsos MORI and GfK NOP, face to face, at polling stations across the country.
I suspect YouGov will do an on the day, how people voted poll.
It was sh** last time, let's be honest. It gave the LD false hope...
and UKIP
13% and no seats... painful for the pocket
A repeat will be even more expensive!
Swings and roundabouts with the EU referendum a year later.
Yes all was well in the end. I quite flukily won a load of money on the referendum as my bets went so far underwater it wasn't worth cashing out for a loss... then they won!
Did you see the Farage and Rachel Johnson lunch date? He more or less said he never wanted to be an MP anyway but had to stand.. I guess people will say that's just because he lost, but I don't think he would be a good MP anyway, he just wanted to Leave the EU
He tried often enough!
I think his point was he had to stand to get UKIP publicity, but didn't really want to be an MP. He obviously doesn't want to now
Faisal Islam @faisalislam PM says the big risk in election is her losing 6 seats. Though she is talking from Margaret Beckett's Derby S seat with 9k Lab majority
Derbyshire.
Bolsover. NE Derbyshire Derby South.
All in Derbyshire. All being visited by cabinet ministers.
Clearly, Lynton thinks there is mileage in Derbyshire.
Not sure why, as Labour did fine in Bolsover even in the locals, but clearly someone thinks so.
The real exit poll is done by Ipsos MORI and GfK NOP, face to face, at polling stations across the country.
I suspect YouGov will do an on the day, how people voted poll.
It was sh** last time, let's be honest. It gave the LD false hope...
and UKIP
13% and no seats... painful for the pocket
A repeat will be even more expensive!
Swings and roundabouts with the EU referendum a year later.
Yes all was well in the end. I quite flukily won a load of money on the referendum as my bets went so far underwater it wasn't worth cashing out for a loss... then they won!
Did you see the Farage and Rachel Johnson lunch date? He more or less said he never wanted to be an MP anyway but had to stand.. I guess people will say that's just because he lost, but I don't think he would be a good MP anyway, he just wanted to Leave the EU
He tried often enough!
I think his point was he had to stand to get UKIP publicity, but didn't really want to be an MP. He obviously doesn't want to now
Given the cheap booze, I would be staggered if he didn't want to be an MP.
Labour supporters had steeled themselves for a big loss, now this is happening. When the Tories win comfortably next week it's going to hit a lot of them very hard. Hopefully, there will be no quick response this time. A period of reflection will be needed. The party seems to be more united than it has been for a long time. It will take titanic willpower and uncommon good sense to sustain that after a mind-sapping, hideously demoralising defeat.
The gnashing of teeth from Lefties when the exit poll comes out at 10:00pm next Thursday will be deafening.
Is anyone starting to think that this might be the second election in a row at which Labour's share goes up but they lose seats?
Good point - increased vote share looks pretty likely now, even if they fall back from the highs, but the Tories could still end up as far ahead or more, and most models and polls predicting them gaining seats, so Lab going down, if only by 10-30, also seems likely.
Liam Gallagher was just on ch4 and he said he was voting Labour as he came from a Labour family. Seems Corbyn is quite popular with the high end of the entertainment industry. I was surprised Gallagher said he watched PMQs when it is on TV.
Apologies if this got done to death on the last thread (they're pretty long to catch up on at the minute) but the Woman's Hour no-show is an interesting development of the narrative
Not because it's necessarily a fair accusation (the BBC are being quite conciliatory, one might almost say cowed) but the fact that the Telegraph are now seeing "Chicken Theresa" as a fair narrative to run with. With friends like that...
Actually I'm surprised that May didn't accept the invitation - it's one direct comparator where Corbyn has set the bar particularly low.
Labour supporters had steeled themselves for a big loss, now this is happening. When the Tories win comfortably next week it's going to hit a lot of them very hard. Hopefully, there will be no quick response this time. A period of reflection will be needed. The party seems to be more united than it has been for a long time. It will take titanic willpower and uncommon good sense to sustain that after a mind-sapping, hideously demoralising defeat.
The gnashing of teeth from Lefties when the exit poll comes out at 10:00pm next Thursday will be deafening.
Who knew M15 had so many pencils? ....
Such an old fashion view - it's all in mental manipulation thesedays.
Comments
https://twitter.com/patel4witham
while Patrick McLoughlin has been in Bolsover:
https://twitter.com/Patrick4Dales?lang=en
So we're looking at either a Conservative landslide, a very confused Conservative campaign or a non-UNS election. Or a combination of those three.
Hanretty: Con maj 84
Baxter: Con maj 86
We all guffaw at SeanT's bipolar musings and Nick Palmers dispatches from the front. Mark Senior is roundly abused for fighting his corner with all the dexterity of a synchronised swimmer and we all worry that malcolmg will fail to gather the turnip crop whilst campaigning for independence for Ayrshire farmers.
That said all the evidence for a Conservative landslide is there for all to see. Seemingly hiding in plain sight, but there are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
JackW and his bank balance thanks them all most heartily.
Solid day for PM. Seems v comfortable on the reaffirming Brexit ground. Doing a bit of panto with party faithful. Read all about it at 2200
That's a relief! According to some she's on her deathbed
I suspect YouGov will do an on the day, how people voted poll.
2. Decency. This is Britain. My grandfather didn't fight to secure our freedom in order to have veteran soldiers starved to death, the disabled left to lie in their own filth and children going to school hungry because their working parents can't afford food. We are better than this. What the Tories are doing to people is wrong at a very basic moral level, your neighbour is your friend not your enemy if we all pull together
Having spoken to so may people in this campaign my gut feel as to the mad swing is this. The Tory manifesto broke the TINA narrative. People have said "that isn't right" and are willing to vote accordingly. Because whatever your views on the economy these are human beings and our friends family and neighbours being treated by the Tories like scum. And the Tories excuses for working people reliant on foodbanks just doesn't wash any more.
People voted Brexit because they want a better future. Only one party offering details about what that means to them.
Nothing changes from the Labour hymnsheet, does it?
Remember what he said: in this election we will get some unexpected gains that don't fit the profile, and some unexpected losses.
Bolsover could be one of those losses.
The other seat I think could be interesting in the opposite direction is Stroud. The town is very eco friendly and a bit hippyish, there are two excellent grammars, so their ex students may be back from Uni and voting at home. The whole place has a kind of Corbyn vibe about it. If you look at past elections labour could sneak up to around twenty five thousand votes which could be enough to sneak past the Tory. It would depend on the UKIP vote splits.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam
PM says the big risk in election is her losing 6 seats. Though she is talking from Margaret Beckett's Derby S seat with 9k Lab majority
A repeat will be even more expensive!
Swings and roundabouts with the EU referendum a year later.
We could do with one of our twitter addicts keeping track of where all the leading politicians are.
May seems so desperate for allies post Brexit that like Blair before her she could well become the poodle of whoever is in the Whie House. Not usually dangerous but we've never had a POTUS like Trump before.
Both she and Johnson have talked about the closeness of their relationship. Corbyn like other European leaders is much more likely to keep his distance.
Did you see the Farage and Rachel Johnson lunch date? He more or less said he never wanted to be an MP anyway but had to stand.. I guess people will say that's just because he lost, but I don't think he would be a good MP anyway, he just wanted to Leave the EU
It looks like Conservative MPs are going to be proportionally more midlands, northern and Scottish but proportionally less London and other urban than before.
We've had three Cabinet minsters go to Bolsover in the last ten days.
But has it actually happened? And this is a genuine question BTW.
There's a reason why China has signed up: they know that their CO2 emissions are going down anyway.
Don't get at least on leaflet by this means. After that it is down to activists and available finance. I was only trying to make the point that
The world of campaigning is changing. We only ever delivered "polling day" leaflets to assumed supporters.
We have moved on and embraced demographic marketing. The first party to use the technique was the
Sdp when using prism they identified red wine drinking Volvo owners with a few other key markers to build their party.
They can now target you on what you "like" "friend" etc and where you live. Yes not everybody is on Facebook/twitter
But the rules of the game are changing
That might be our Nuneaton.
So whilst the Conservative roof is losing some roof tiles, the windows require attention and the kitchen aga has failed, the foundations of the election house remain solid.
Corbyn's tent has come up for the summer. People like the look of it for a few weeks but they are not pitching to live there for the next five years.
31/05/17 Wakefield, Leeds NE and York C
30/05/17 Southampton Test
29/05/17 Hampstead
He was also in Plymouth on 16/05/17 - so it seems to be a place where Conservatives go, media opportunities perhaps ?
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/870342784733126658
Peter_from-Putney said:
'Even at this late stage of the GE campaign, one still stumbles across some staggering unlikely predictions.
A case in point is the West Wales constituency of Preseli Pembrokeshire, just about as safe a Tory seat as one is likely to find in the entire principality, as reflected by the betting odds, where the most "generous" price available on the Tories is the 1/25 available from Betfair Sportsbook, while those nice folk at Bet365 will give you odds of 18/1 against Labour capturing this seat from the Blue Team.
The outcome therefore is absolutely cut and dried or at least so one would have thought ....... but wait ....... along comes Chris Hanretty's Election Forecast team who decides that this is the third most likely seat Labour is capable of capturing in the entire nation and equally the third most likely seat the Tories are likely to lose, in both instances making this a 76% likelihood, or a better than 3 in 4 chance of actually happening. Is there something unusual about this seat which I've missed or has it somehow slipped through the most elementary of filters presumably applied by Election Forecast to result in such a seemingly near impossible result.
I thought it was pushing things somewhat to imagine that either the Tories or Labour could conceivably win Brighton Pavilion, but this seems to take things onto an entirely new level. '
Your impression of how Tory this seat is a bit exaggerated I suggest. I grew up in Pembrokeshire , and can assure you that it is far from being a solid Tory seat.Under existing boundaries it was comfortably Labour - held 1997 - 2005 when it was narrowly lost to Stephen Crabb.Even in 2015 the Tory majority was less than 5000 and it remains very winnable for Labour in a good year - though I do not expect that to happen next week. Crabb has been personally damaged by last year's revelations re-the sex texts he sent - in the context of his declared strong Christian views - and I will not be surprised to see his majority suffer as a result. Unlikely that he will lose , but the seat is nothing like as safe as - say - Monmouth or possibly West Carmarthen & Pembrokeshire South.
BREXIT - 52/48 Remain.
Bolsover.
NE Derbyshire
Derby South.
All in Derbyshire. All being visited by cabinet ministers.
Clearly, Lynton thinks there is mileage in Derbyshire.
Not sure why, as Labour did fine in Bolsover even in the locals, but clearly someone thinks so.
Pretty sure McLoughlin was a scab during the miners' strike. Not sure that will necessarily make him popular.
Who knew M15 had so many pencils? ....
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/870310676501278720
Not because it's necessarily a fair accusation (the BBC are being quite conciliatory, one might almost say cowed) but the fact that the Telegraph are now seeing "Chicken Theresa" as a fair narrative to run with. With friends like that...
Actually I'm surprised that May didn't accept the invitation - it's one direct comparator where Corbyn has set the bar particularly low.