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  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    when is the panelbase poll out?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    "In the lead up to last year’s EU referendum something very significant, and very sad, happened; Leave were flying in the opinion polls and as short in the betting as they had been all campaign, then, on June 16th, Labour MP and Remain supporter Jo Cox was murdered by a man who would almost certainly have been a leaver. The political analysts agreed it was a blow for the anti EU movement, when polling resumed there was a marked shift towards Remain, and Leave drifted from 2.4 to 15 on the betting exchanges. A week after Cox's death, Leave won 52/48; there had been no shift to Remain."

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    "Before GE 2015 the polls had the Conservatives and Labour vying for the lead. The narrative amongst betting experts was that No Overall Majority was "free money", even at prohibitive odds, and the media dismissed talk of either party winning a majority, busying themselves with the permutations of the incoming coalition. At 10pm on election night, the exit poll had the Conservatives as the largest party by some margin, and early next morning it was confirmed that David Cameron's Blues had racked up 331 seats, commanding a majority in the House. The coalition calculations were rendered redundant, the NOM money was lost. Ed Miliband never had a hope."

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    edited June 2017
    kjohnw said:

    when is the panelbase poll out?

    A couple of hours ago.
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870270491952640000
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    The stupidest thing I heard was that housebuilders hoard land. Of course they don't but they do need to secure a supply in order to build houses on, and our planning system is so dysfunctional that it can take over a decade from land purchase to getting a spade in the ground.

    They really do. Off the record they'll admit it. Of course it's an irregular verb - "I ensure a prudent supply of future development opportunities", "You have a landbank which you will build out gradually", "He is a hoarding profiteer".

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/07/number-of-unbuilt-homes-with-planning-permission-hits-record-levels-lga-says

    Frightfully good, Minister!
    THE problem is the planning system though. A developer will bid on multiple sites hoping to get some through planning, but if they all get approved then they need to manage their own work force etc by building at a sustainable rate. The construction industry lost masses of skilled workers in the early nineties when the market collapsed so employers are keen to retain workforce now after all they have apprenticed a good number of them
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Hmm mmmmmmmm anybody got odds anywhere on Con, Lab, SNP and NI being the only 4 represented sections in Parliament? Plaid, Lib and Green wipe out?

    I simply can't see the LibDems losing Orkney & Shetland. It bears repeating, that they got 67.4% in the Holyrood seats last year, up about 25 percentage points on 2012, and more than 3x the number of votes as the SNP.

    And the SNP has gone backwards since 2016.

    I would imagine that they'll hold it with more than 50%, and perhaps as much as 60%, of the vote.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    bobajobPB said:



    Indeed it has spent 2017 saying May win/landslide.

    Good point.

    Tbh, it's spent a considerable amount of GE 2017 saying

    Corbyn win/hung parliament/smaller Conservative majority.

    What will probably happen:

    May majority, but not the landslide previously touted.

    Labour not being wiped out, as was previously touted.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    isam said:

    "In the lead up to last year’s EU referendum something very significant, and very sad, happened; Leave were flying in the opinion polls and as short in the betting as they had been all campaign, then, on June 16th, Labour MP and Remain supporter Jo Cox was murdered by a man who would almost certainly have been a leaver. The political analysts agreed it was a blow for the anti EU movement, when polling resumed there was a marked shift towards Remain, and Leave drifted from 2.4 to 15 on the betting exchanges. A week after Cox's death, Leave won 52/48; there had been no shift to Remain."

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1

    Pollsters got 2010 right, 2012 & 16 mayorals right, indyref right, Lib Dems right, Ukip right, Corbyn right.

    ICM, TNS, Opinium, YouGov & Survation got EURef right within margin of error

    Spare me the "who trusts polls now" opinion. People think it makes them sound wise but it just makes them sound innumerate.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Pulpstar said:

    What does "hopeful" mean when an incumbent says they are "hopeful" of retaining a seat ?

    That they've already refreshed their CV lately.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:
    Jesus. I was hoping for double digits. The polls are beginning to herd around a 5-8 point lead? Somewhere between Hung Parliament and 50 seat majority.

    The pain is going to last until next Thursday evening at 10pm.
    All those IRA attack vids only increase his popularity. The punters like Jezza more as they see more of him.

    What sort of fucked up country do we live in if exposing the leader of the opposition as a terrorist sympathiser makes him MORE POPULAR?

    I am lost for words. And not a little scared
    Haven't you got it yet? If someone impartial tells me Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser a whole set of psychological processes are triggered off that make me initially highly suspicious. It is then the devil of a job to shift the notion. The dog has been given a bad name and probably hung as far as my brain goes. When somebody I don't trust, don't like and with an ulterior motive tells me he is a terrorist sympathiser my initial reaction is to be suspicious. I might still be won over, but the slightest chink in the story and I realise I am being had and come round to sympathise with Corbyn. And there is your Labour surge explained.

    This is not some bloke down the pub alleging that Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser based on a rumour.

    It is the FACT that he is one being pointed out in unarguable, incontrovertible terms.

    And yet he "gets more popular" WTF??

    And the comment from someone else that "money trumps everything" I don't understand. The IRA thing alone would stop me voting labour even if Corbyn could walk on water. But the MAIN reason I don't want labour to win is the economic chaos they would bring. LaLa land economics leading to recession, unemployment and much worse public services - the usual left wing disaster in other words.

    Maybe we do need to relearn this lesson. Hey ho
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235
    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    They really do. Off the record they'll admit it. Of course it's an irregular verb - "I ensure a prudent supply of future development opportunities", "You have a landbank which you will build out gradually", "He is a hoarding profiteer".

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/07/number-of-unbuilt-homes-with-planning-permission-hits-record-levels-lga-says


    Yes, sure. Instead of turning over their capital as fast as they can, they deliberately keep it tied up so as to minimise their return on capital. Or something equally fantastical.
    I own a small 4 acre paddock that came with my house as agricultural land (horseriding is quite popular in Leics). I rent it out to a farmer, who grazes sheep on it. The agricultural rent would be about £200 per year, but I waive that provided he does the hedging and grazes it enough to keep the grass short. Sheep are pleasant neighbours. Agricultural land in Leics is about £10 000 per acre on the market, currently zero rated for council tax. It is pleasant to look at but not economic.

    Planning permission would increase the value about 25 fold if I were to build 40 ish houses. The higher density the more valuble. I would happily pay a little tax on such a million pound windfall. My neighbours would be rather annoyed though!

    I think 25x is a serious underestimate.

    Foxy New Town it is. Get in before the CPO :)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    The behaviour of voters is a science we don't understand as yet. Opinion polls are like a religion that some people cling on to. As with bible stories, the believers point at the ones that suit and forget the many that were bullshit
  • tessyCtessyC Posts: 106
    For people who want to bet on Cardiff North. There is a large student halls called talybont just inside the constituency. It is filled with first year students, although the semester doesn't officially end until this Friday the last of the first year exams have ended and it's pretty quiet in there. It's probably filled by 4000 students in term time. In 2015 the place was full at the general election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What does "hopeful" mean when an incumbent says they are "hopeful" of retaining a seat ?

    That they've already refreshed their CV lately.
    Balls - Gower definitely amongst my worst bets of the election.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    They really do. Off the record they'll admit it. Of course it's an irregular verb - "I ensure a prudent supply of future development opportunities", "You have a landbank which you will build out gradually", "He is a hoarding profiteer".

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/07/number-of-unbuilt-homes-with-planning-permission-hits-record-levels-lga-says


    Yes, sure. Instead of turning over their capital as fast as they can, they deliberately keep it tied up so as to minimise their return on capital. Or something equally fantastical.
    The Land Director at Barratts, in a piece explaining why landbanking is a myth, says this. Which to my mind rather admits that it isn't. The desire to increase turnover is trumped by the need to protect margins - i.e. to keep house prices high.

    "The reality is that housebuilders, as return-on-capital businesses are not able to build our products at a pace faster than our customers will purchase them, at the market value. We could in theory cut prices to speed up sales but as we have based our land purchase price on the estimated market values so we don’t have this option in practice."
    So you expect a company who has navigated this countries opaque planning system to then pump out houses at a loss. We'd soon have no house builders. If the council were able to compulsory purchase agricultural land to build on, they might get their fingers out with approvals
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Dawning, foreign meddling won't go down well.

    Mr. C, it perplexes and depresses me as well. Imagine if in 30 years we have an Al-Qaeda sympathiser as head of the Labour Party, contending for Downing Street.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    What does "hopeful" mean when an incumbent says they are "hopeful" of retaining a seat ?

    They probably won't but it is still possible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss C, how do you think it'll go this time around?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    tessyC said:

    For people who want to bet on Cardiff North. There is a large student halls called talybont just inside the constituency. It is filled with first year students, although the semester doesn't officially end until this Friday the last of the first year exams have ended and it's pretty quiet in there. It's probably filled by 4000 students in term time. In 2015 the place was full at the general election.

    I've been saying this for weeks
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    rcs1000 said:

    Hmm mmmmmmmm anybody got odds anywhere on Con, Lab, SNP and NI being the only 4 represented sections in Parliament? Plaid, Lib and Green wipe out?

    I simply can't see the LibDems losing Orkney & Shetland. It bears repeating, that they got 67.4% in the Holyrood seats last year, up about 25 percentage points on 2012, and more than 3x the number of votes as the SNP.

    And the SNP has gone backwards since 2016.

    I would imagine that they'll hold it with more than 50%, and perhaps as much as 60%, of the vote.
    The venerated Jo Grimond still held that seat when times were very tough for the Liberals back in the 1950's and 1960's. The seat has been Liberal since 1950.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ffs she's on 44% of the vote. She's matching Thatcher and Blair 97 and people think she needs an Intervention? The Con vote is not dropping, DNVS and kids are boosting Labour. Even if they all turn out she's still on for a tiny majority. IF.
  • scoopscoop Posts: 64

    They really do. Off the record they'll admit it. Of course it's an irregular verb - "I ensure a prudent supply of future development opportunities", "You have a landbank which you will build out gradually", "He is a hoarding profiteer".

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/07/number-of-unbuilt-homes-with-planning-permission-hits-record-levels-lga-says


    Yes, sure. Instead of turning over their capital as fast as they can, they deliberately keep it tied up so as to minimise their return on capital. Or something equally fantastical.
    I own a small 4 acre paddock that came with my house as agricultural land (horseriding is quite popular in Leics). I rent it out to a farmer, who grazes sheep on it. The agricultural rent would be about £200 per year, but I waive that provided he does the hedging and grazes it enough to keep the grass short. Sheep are pleasant neighbours. Agricultural land in Leics is about £10 000 per acre on the market, currently zero rated for council tax. It is pleasant to look at but not economic.

    Planning permission would increase the value about 25 fold if I were to build 40 ish houses. The higher density the more valuble. I would happily pay a little tax on such a million pound windfall. My neighbours would be rather annoyed though!

    I think 25x is a serious underestimate.

    Foxy New Town it is. Get in before the CPO :)
    Nimby
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    DanSmith said:

    kjohnw said:

    Anecdote : My son is on a network rail apprenticeship, Warrington North, Unionised workforce, three weeks ago no one in his depot was voting Corbyn he was toxic, my son has been away since on training in Portsmouth, just gone back to depot - now everyone there is voting Corbyn since the debates, they like his policies and that he turned up for debate.

    This is not looking good for the tories

    Traditional Labour areas are going to deliver for Corbyn. Won't be enough to win, will be enough to better 2015 and probably get a hung parliament.
    Honestly, I am losing the plot with all this.

    Only a month ago many PBers spent all day saying how utterly crap Corbyn is and Labour may not even survive as a party after the GE. I was one of them.

    Now look at us.
    But then I liked the Nolans before they were cool.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    tessyC said:

    For people who want to bet on Cardiff North. There is a large student halls called talybont just inside the constituency. It is filled with first year students, although the semester doesn't officially end until this Friday the last of the first year exams have ended and it's pretty quiet in there. It's probably filled by 4000 students in term time. In 2015 the place was full at the general election.

    Llys Tal y Bont surely ;-)
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Risible.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    Perhaps you ought to drop a note to CCHQ.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited June 2017

    When the facts change I change my opinions, so here's mine: a large chunk of people just want an end to austerity.

    They voted for Brexit and are contemplating voting for Corbyn for the same reason they
    voted for Brexit: extra money on public services they don't have to pay for, but can vote for.

    That's why the £350m per week was so powerful, as are tax rises for earners over £80k and corporation tax rises.

    I probably flattered myself - as a Brexiteer - that all Leave voters were driven by self-governance, sovereignty and making the laws in the UK.

    That is true for many - and a good chunk of UKIP defectors will stick with the Tories for those very reasons, because they are, for instance, more trusted on immigration and delivering a proper Brexit than Labour - but another chunk are, at heart, rather EU agnostic and voted UKIP as a NOTA option, Brexit for the money, and are now voting Corbyn because more credibly offered free sweeties than May can.

    Two conclusions:

    (1) A good chunk of 2015 UKIP voters will vote Corbyn. I'd expect these to be in the areas where the Leave vote was high, but also the Labour vote has been previously high, and public services significantly affected
    (2) May really should have linked a higher NHS budget to a Brexit dividend by GE2022, like I suggested here almost a month ago. Pledge the £350m extra in cash terms.

    She didn't, and as she just sounded like she offered Salt, so she is now suffering from not scooping up all those Kipper votes.

    The Left would - probably - have always rallied to Corbyn as the nature of the GE becoming a two-party race became clear, and they discovered the same reasons he became so adored by Labour party members during his leadership battles; his seductive stub campaigning.

    But not all those Kipper votes needed to be lost. Tory lead on the day of 5-7% over Labour seems about right.

    I think that is a good analysis.

    Only the well off can vote for idealistic reasons, whether on the left or the right. There are quite a lot of wealthy socialists.

    The vast majority vote out of self interest, - on the left to survive, on the right to get richer.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited June 2017
    DanSmith said:

    isam said:

    "In the lead up to last year’s EU referendum something very significant, and very sad, happened; Leave were flying in the opinion polls and as short in the betting as they had been all campaign, then, on June 16th, Labour MP and Remain supporter Jo Cox was murdered by a man who would almost certainly have been a leaver. The political analysts agreed it was a blow for the anti EU movement, when polling resumed there was a marked shift towards Remain, and Leave drifted from 2.4 to 15 on the betting exchanges. A week after Cox's death, Leave won 52/48; there had been no shift to Remain."

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1

    Pollsters got 2010 right, 2012 & 16 mayorals right, indyref right, Lib Dems right, Ukip right, Corbyn right.

    ICM, TNS, Opinium, YouGov & Survation got EURef right within margin of error

    Spare me the "who trusts polls now" opinion. People think it makes them sound wise but it just makes them sound innumerate.
    I would say Mayorals, and particularly Party Leadership elections are a different kettle of fish, I explain why in the blog.

    Margin of error, shmerror! The final polls for the EU all showed a shift towards remain, and 3/13 had remain winning

    The polls are bullshit. You may as well make the numbers up
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    re the recent welsh poll by YouGov.

    Does anyone know how they are treating the 18-24 age group. IE are they weighting them by historic voting %s, or by some other mechanism?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    Ha god yes. And cheap at twice the price. It would only be doubling the £8bn real increase she announced today.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    matt said:

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    Perhaps you ought to drop a note to CCHQ.
    Given her performance so far, she is more likely to drivel on about some obscure policy on page 38 of the manifesto that nobody had noticed, but turns out to take millions from pensioners and gives it to bankers.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2017
    Nigelb said:

    They really do. Off the record they'll admit it. Of course it's an irregular verb - "I ensure a prudent supply of future development opportunities", "You have a landbank which you will build out gradually", "He is a hoarding profiteer".

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/07/number-of-unbuilt-homes-with-planning-permission-hits-record-levels-lga-says


    Yes, sure. Instead of turning over their capital as fast as they can, they deliberately keep it tied up so as to minimise their return on capital. Or something equally fantastical.
    I own a small 4 acre paddock that came with my house as agricultural land (horseriding is quite popular in Leics). I rent it out to a farmer, who grazes sheep on it. The agricultural rent would be about £200 per year, but I waive that provided he does the hedging and grazes it enough to keep the grass short. Sheep are pleasant neighbours. Agricultural land in Leics is about £10 000 per acre on the market, currently zero rated for council tax. It is pleasant to look at but not economic.

    Planning permission would increase the value about 25 fold if I were to build 40 ish houses. The higher density the more valuble. I would happily pay a little tax on such a million pound windfall. My neighbours would be rather annoyed though!

    Would you happily pay LVT on it now ?
    I could afford to. I don't think my farmer could do so at the same rate.

    He does mixed arable and pastoral farming, owns 2000 acres in several blocks and has an income about a quarter of mine. Of course he does not pay for food, accomodation or commuting, so the income goes further. Like most farmets he is land rich, but cash poor.

    Any LVT on agricultural land set at even 1% of £10 k per acre would be most of his income. He would be bankrupt. There would be no option of sticking up his prices because of food imports (his lamb goes to France). The land would be unsellable for agriculture too.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Now that we are leaving the EU and politicians seem to be listening re immigration, I would love to vote Labour again. It has never sat well with me not to, but not in a million years could I vote for Corbyn, McD, and Abbott. They cheered our troops dying in Ireland, we all know it.
  • tessyCtessyC Posts: 106

    Miss C, how do you think it'll go this time around?

    The new MP elected in 2015 has been very active in the last two years. He seems well liked. With the majority of students gone I think it will be a Con hold.

    Worth also saying, my younger sister thought because she was registered to vote at uni she was also registered to vote at home. Sadly for her, she isn't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Something to steady Tory nerves:

    Eighteen months ago, the answer to the question "Can non-voters win the election for Labour" would have been a resounding no. Some of the polls seem to suggest that non-voters can get Labour close. That, to me, sounds unlikely — but we'll know within a week.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    They really do. Off the record they'll admit it. Of course it's an irregular verb - "I ensure a prudent supply of future development opportunities", "You have a landbank which you will build out gradually", "He is a hoarding profiteer".

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/07/number-of-unbuilt-homes-with-planning-permission-hits-record-levels-lga-says


    Yes, sure. Instead of turning over their capital as fast as they can, they deliberately keep it tied up so as to minimise their return on capital. Or something equally fantastical.
    The Land Director at Barratts, in a piece explaining why landbanking is a myth, says this. Which to my mind rather admits that it isn't. The desire to increase turnover is trumped by the need to protect margins - i.e. to keep house prices high.

    "The reality is that housebuilders, as return-on-capital businesses are not able to build our products at a pace faster than our customers will purchase them, at the market value. We could in theory cut prices to speed up sales but as we have based our land purchase price on the estimated market values so we don’t have this option in practice."
    So you expect a company who has navigated this countries opaque planning system to then pump out houses at a loss. We'd soon have no house builders. If the council were able to compulsory purchase agricultural land to build on, they might get their fingers out with approvals
    Did you actually read what was written? Why should the Council buying up farmland change the fact that the builders won't build houses because they cant sell them at the inflated prices they want? If that is their business model then they deserve to go bust.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Could be fascinating. Could be crap if they just dissolve into old arguments.

    Why would they get into old arguments?
    I dunno... if Corbyn does well maybe Ed says austerity failed, Osborne says labour spent all the money etc...
    If may does well - Osborne says vindication of long-term economic plan, Labour still can't be trusted...
    I think they will have a giggle together.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    does anyone think the tories have saved one big announcement for the last weekend before polling day?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    Those two things are already priced in to even YouGov's polls, though. Today's UK-wide YouGov had Labour and the Tories tied on the raw data, before turnout filters pushed the Tories in front.

    Admittedly YouGov's turnout filters aren't as heavy as other pollsters', so they may not necessarily be right, but it's just flat wrong to say that YouGov aren't making any account for young voters not turning out in as high numbers as oldies.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    Yes, that could work. But it needs to be as eye catching as possible. I would say: call the press, get the cameras lined up, then get the bus to drive through a giant paper backdrop with Theresa on the roof, waving her arms about. Is that bus still driveable? Can we get hold of it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    llef said:

    re the recent welsh poll by YouGov.

    Does anyone know how they are treating the 18-24 age group. IE are they weighting them by historic voting %s, or by some other mechanism?

    YouGov weight by declared intention to vote, ICM by historical voting behaviour. We'll know in a week which is a better approach.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    kjohnw said:

    does anyone think the tories have saved one big announcement for the last weekend before polling day?

    No
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    llef said:

    re the recent welsh poll by YouGov.

    Does anyone know how they are treating the 18-24 age group. IE are they weighting them by historic voting %s, or by some other mechanism?

    YouGov weight by declared intention to vote, ICM by historical voting behaviour. We'll know in a week which is a better approach.
    According to the PB podcast yesterday, YouGov's headline numbers are assuming 50% youth turnout and 75% elderly turnout.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited June 2017

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    Yes, that could work. But it needs to be as eye catching as possible. I would say: call the press, get the cameras lined up, then get the bus to drive through a giant paper backdrop with Theresa on the roof, waving her arms about. Is that bus still driveable? Can we get hold of it?
    Having that bus would be a killer touch! Maybe we could have Boris driving it? (Okay, maybe not! But it would spoil Scott's entire day!)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss C, cheers for that.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there any reason to think the Wales poll isn't broadly reflective of what's happening in Labour's heartlands in England?

    Unlike Scotland, Wales hasn't diverged much from the results in the rest of the country in a long time. In elections or in referendums.

    The national polling.

    Oh Who knows any more. The Tories on 44ish have to be SOMEWHERE though. Maybe they're on 70% of the vote in Lamb's constituency o_O
    The Tories will do well in areas that have actively experienced high immigration from the EU, and are more actively aspirational, or areas that used to have heavy industry, or fishing, that feel they have suffered directly from EU legislation.

    West/East Midlands, East Anglia, perhaps a few places in the North East.

    Demographics will play off against each other here, with some close results.

    I'd be double-checking any area that was previously disillusioned with Labour, but had a strong history of coal-mining or union organisation, for instance.
    As i've been saying for weeks those are the areas where the "Not Tory" mindset is most embedded. Two weeks ago, Baxter had the likes of Makerfield being 40% Tory. Never going to happen. Labour people in these areas might have been dissilusioned with Labour, and some might have gone so far as to not vote or try UKIP last time, but putting the cross next to Conservative is just a step too far.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    bobajobPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there any reason to think the Wales poll isn't broadly reflective of what's happening in Labour's heartlands in England?

    Unlike Scotland, Wales hasn't diverged much from the results in the rest of the country in a long time. In elections or in referendums.

    The national polling.

    Oh Who knows any more. The Tories on 44ish have to be SOMEWHERE though. Maybe they're on 70% of the vote in Lamb's constituency o_O
    The Tories will do well in areas that have actively experienced high immigration from the EU, and are more actively aspirational, or areas that used to have heavy industry, or fishing, that feel they have suffered directly from EU legislation.

    West/East Midlands, East Anglia, perhaps a few places in the North East.

    Demographics will play off against each other here, with some close results.

    I'd be double-checking any area that was previously disillusioned with Labour, but had a strong history of coal-mining or union organisation, for instance.
    Hasn't London experienced high immigration from the EU?
    Yes, but London is a different story. As is Manchester, to be fair.
    It's a different story because the evidence fails to fit your hypothesis?

    Ditto the NE – a pro-brexit area with the square root of sod all immigration.

    Anyone might think that Brexit was more a knee-jerk reaction against bogeymen foreigners.
    Boston and Skegness, East Anglia, the Midlands, Kent and the major cities have all experienced notable levels of EU immigration, to name but a few.

    It's where it represents what is perceived locally as a detrimental social and economic change, or the risk of one in future, that it's a problem.

    That is not the case in the inner major metropolitan cities.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    naughty
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited June 2017
    Hooray! Theresa has a Clear Plan for Brexit Who knew? I wouldn't exactly go along with it being a clear plan for Brexit, or even really a plan, and some people might question whether it's Brexit at all, but let's not nitpick. In fact the only bit of it that matters is:

    ...

    12. Deliver a smooth, orderly exit from the EU

    We will seek a phased process of implementation, in which both the UK and the EU institutions and the remaining EU Member States prepare for the new arrangements that will exist between us.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    TOPPING said:

    Details, details, details.

    May should have given some ideas of the extra immigration controls she'd imposed post-Brexit in her manifesto. Plus the Brexit dividend for the NHS.

    The focus is all on domestic policy - such as the dementia tax - because that's all she (or Timothy) got specific on the numbers about.

    She should have lead on our economic performance, acknowledged that the NHS and education seem to be falling behind in funding and that the Cons will look at this; focused on technical colleges and education (she did this today); and then, like all else, told us that the better our economy the better Brexit outcome we will get.
    That is part of it, yes.

    But, the reason she didn't do any of your suggestions, or mine, is because her hubris (and Timothy's) was that she'd walk to victory regardless, and so could be vague about everything plus add a few contentious specifics as well, viewing a very high opinion poll lead as some sort of banked currency to be very partially traded in.

    *That's* why she's tanked. The dementia tax is not good, but it's a bit of a chimera.

    It's about hubris and arrogance.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    Of course it can't be assumed non-voters won't vote this time. Just looking at the Orkney figures comparing 2010 and 2015 while 2500 of the 6500 increase in the SNP vote was at the expense of the Lib Dems , the other parties changed little. The majority of the increase about 4000 was from previous non-voters. The question this election is whether Corbyn will mobilise non-voters in the way Brexit did.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    tessyC said:

    For people who want to bet on Cardiff North. There is a large student halls called talybont just inside the constituency. It is filled with first year students, although the semester doesn't officially end until this Friday the last of the first year exams have ended and it's pretty quiet in there. It's probably filled by 4000 students in term time. In 2015 the place was full at the general election.

    Wow Talybont has expanded since my day. I was at Uni Hall which was a far better place to live :-). Still in Cardiff North I think though.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited June 2017

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    The point with the £350m pledge was that it was the amount that country would save per week through leaving the EU.

    It wasn't a figure May recognised or agreed with. And she was correct to reject it - whether you believe in leaving the EU or not, it simply wasn't accurate.

    So, if May were to promise this, she either has to: (i) back down on her previous position (and demonstrably lie) by saying "don't worry, when we leave, the £350m will be there - no need to cost it"; or (ii) accept it was a lie but say it'll be raised in some other way - in which case, what has it got to do with the EU?

    Either £18 billion per annum extra for the NHS is sensible or not, and either it's affordable or not. Doing it for no other reason than because someone else saw fit to paint it on the side of a bus is an Ed Stone level silly gimic.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Great line up for @itvnews on election night. @edballs and @George_Osborne co-pannellists. Should be excellent telly.

    Could be fascinating. Could be crap if they just dissolve into old arguments.
    Big smile on GO's face if London delivers for Labour
    For Tories the governance of our country seems to be a big game, with matters such as whether we leave the EU or who wins a General Election to be decided on which other Tory you can disadvantage.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    FF43 said:

    Hooray! Theresa has a Clear Plan for Brexit Who knew? I wouldn't exactly go along with it being a clear plan for Brexit, or even really a plan, and some people might question whether it's Brexit at all, but let's not nitpick. In fact the only bit of it that matters is:

    ...

    12. Deliver a smooth, orderly exit from the EU

    We will seek a phased process of implementation, in which both the UK and the EU institutions and the remaining EU Member States prepare for the new arrangements that will exist between us.

    As opposed to a chaotic, disorderly and sudden exit, with no preparation by anyone involved.

    Genius - who else could have conceived of such a plan?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    timmo said:

    Anecdote alert..
    21 year old boiler engineer around my house.. likes Corbyn and now wants to vote for him...problem is he didn't register..wonder how many others there are like that.

    Cleaning out your pipes?
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    Danny565 said:

    llef said:

    re the recent welsh poll by YouGov.

    Does anyone know how they are treating the 18-24 age group. IE are they weighting them by historic voting %s, or by some other mechanism?

    YouGov weight by declared intention to vote, ICM by historical voting behaviour. We'll know in a week which is a better approach.
    According to the PB podcast yesterday, YouGov's headline numbers are assuming 50% youth turnout and 75% elderly turnout.
    Danny565 said:

    llef said:

    re the recent welsh poll by YouGov.

    Does anyone know how they are treating the 18-24 age group. IE are they weighting them by historic voting %s, or by some other mechanism?

    YouGov weight by declared intention to vote, ICM by historical voting behaviour. We'll know in a week which is a better approach.
    According to the PB podcast yesterday, YouGov's headline numbers are assuming 50% youth turnout and 75% elderly turnout.
    mmmm ok thanks :-)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited June 2017

    bobajobPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there any reason to think the Wales poll isn't broadly reflective of what's happening in Labour's heartlands in England?

    Unlike Scotland, Wales hasn't diverged much from the results in the rest of the country in a long time. In elections or in referendums.

    The national polling.

    Oh Who knows any more. The Tories on 44ish have to be SOMEWHERE though. Maybe they're on 70% of the vote in Lamb's constituency o_O
    The Tories will do well in areas that have actively experienced high immigration from the EU, and are more actively aspirational, or areas that used to have heavy industry, or fishing, that feel they have suffered directly from EU legislation.

    West/East Midlands, East Anglia, perhaps a few places in the North East.

    Demographics will play off against each other here, with some close results.

    I'd be double-checking any area that was previously disillusioned with Labour, but had a strong history of coal-mining or union organisation, for instance.
    Hasn't London experienced high immigration from the EU?
    Yes, but London is a different story. As is Manchester, to be fair.
    It's a different story because the evidence fails to fit your hypothesis?

    Ditto the NE – a pro-brexit area with the square root of sod all immigration.

    Anyone might think that Brexit was more a knee-jerk reaction against bogeymen foreigners.
    Boston and Skegness, East Anglia, the Midlands, Kent and the major cities have all experienced notable levels of EU immigration, to name but a few.

    It's where it represents what is perceived locally as a detrimental social and economic change, or the risk of one in future, that it's a problem.

    That is not the case in the inner major metropolitan cities.
    The reason why it is a different story is because such a small % of people born and bred in London still live there. A fairly big % of English people living in London were not born and bred there and have only ever known it as a transient place. Indeed many are attracted by the diversity that people who were born there disliked enough to move

    Boston and Skegness, East Anglia, the Midlands, Kent etc are places where families have lived for generations that have recently seen massive population changes, hence the difference
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Barnesian said:

    When the facts change I change my opinions, so here's mine: a large chunk of people just want an end to austerity.

    They voted for Brexit and are contemplating voting for Corbyn for the same reason they
    voted for Brexit: extra money on public services they don't have to pay for, but can vote for.

    That's why the £350m per week was so powerful, as are tax rises for earners over £80k and corporation tax rises.

    I probably flattered myself - as a Brexiteer - that all Leave voters were driven by self-governance, sovereignty and making the laws in the UK.

    That is true for many - and a good chunk of UKIP defectors will stick with the Tories for those very reasons, because they are, for instance, more trusted on immigration and delivering a proper Brexit than Labour - but another chunk are, at heart, rather EU agnostic and voted UKIP as a NOTA option, Brexit for the money, and are now voting Corbyn because more credibly offered free sweeties than May can.

    Two conclusions:

    (1) A good chunk of 2015 UKIP voters will vote Corbyn. I'd expect these to be in the areas where the Leave vote was high, but also the Labour vote has been previously high, and public services significantly affected
    (2) May really should have linked a higher NHS budget to a Brexit dividend by GE2022, like I suggested here almost a month ago. Pledge the £350m extra in cash terms.

    She didn't, and as she just sounded like she offered Salt, so she is now suffering from not scooping up all those Kipper votes.

    The Left would - probably - have always rallied to Corbyn as the nature of the GE becoming a two-party race became clear, and they discovered the same reasons he became so adored by Labour party members during his leadership battles; his seductive stub campaigning.

    But not all those Kipper votes needed to be lost. Tory lead on the day of 5-7% over Labour seems about right.

    I think that is a good analysis.

    Only the well off can vote for idealistic reasons, whether on the left or the right. There are quite a lot of wealthy socialists.

    The vast majority vote out of self interest, - on the left to survive, on the right to get richer.
    There are also those in the middle (aspirational) who want to move from subsisting to self-sufficiency, a bigger house, better car, a mortgage etc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.

    It's *still* campaigning on the wrong issues (the right issues are Brexit, the economy and security).
    But not in that order. The right issues are:

    the economy, the economy, the economy.

    And then acknowledge, as Tezza began to today, that we can't let health and education fall back, funding-wise. Dear god compared with Jezza's spending Tezza could promise a free taxi for everyone going to their GP for a year and still come out up vs Lab's plans.
    The overarching theme should have been Trust.

    Who do you trust to deliver a growing economy while keeping the nation's finances under control?
    Who do you trust to negotiate with the European Union to deliver the best deal for Britain?
    Who do you trust to keep you and your family safe?

    Those are the questions that the context of May vs Corbyn should have been set within. Frankly, we've had enough public service reform these last seven years. promising not to bugger about with structures would of itself be a vote winner as well as easily deliverable.
    Trust is a difficult sell after the u-turns.

    All should hinge on the economy. Where is the announcement today about low unemployment? They should hammer on this until people recall what a liability Lab is in office economically.
    If the campaign had been hinged on those issues and not had personal hobbyhorses thrown in without being properly developed, focus grouped or explained, there wouldn't have been any U-turns.

    In any case, the U-turn on social policy hasn't been damaging. The media seem to think it is incredibly important but they're wrong: they judging the Westminster Village game. What was damaging was the original announcement itself. The U-turn - to the extent that it was - has made precious little difference either way.
    In truth, I think May, Timothy and Hill are far more interested in their own personal domestic hobbyhorses than they are Brexit.

    With the possible exception of Timothy, who voted for it, but possibly as an enabler for the above.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited June 2017

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    The point with the £350m pledge was that it was the amount that country would save per week through leaving the EU.

    It wasn't a figure May recognised or agreed with. And she was correct to reject it - whether you believe in leaving the EU or not, it simply wasn't accurate.

    So, if May were to promise this, she either has to: (i) back down on her previous position (and demonstrably lie) by saying "don't worry, when we leave, the £350m will be there - no need to cost it"; or (ii) accept it was a lie but say it'll be raised in some other way - in which case, what has it got to do with the EU?

    Either £18 billion per annum extra for the NHS is sensible or not, and either it's affordable or not. Doing it for no other reason than because someone else saw fit to paint it on the side of a bus is an Ed Stone level silly gimic.
    By 2022, inflation will have accounted for a chunk of the £350m. It will be manageable. Hell, Corbyn's lot has a £58 billion hole in their numbers that nobody seems to be asking them about.

    Unlike Ed's gimmick, it would cement Theresa with delivering the benefits of Brexit. At the moment, there is fuck all to look forward to from Brexit - the voters need some red meat. Even Remainers would be pleased with that outcome. The Leavers would be ecstatic.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    kjohnw said:

    does anyone think the tories have saved one big announcement for the last weekend before polling day?

    The Tories have been hoping for a shot in the arm for ages but it never comes. They just seem to be meekly plodding towards polling day resigned to a massive opportunity squandered. There's no energy or drive anywhere. Oh for Dave sans tie, sleeves rolled-up campaigning on a rock in Cornwall.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.

    Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.

    She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Nigelb said:

    England were strolling. Hales' wicket gives Bangladesh a sniff...

    I used to be a cricket obsessive a few years ago but all the characters / eccentrics seem to have disappeared from the game, and that includes umpires as well as players. I find it all very robotic these days.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited June 2017
    RobC said:

    Of course it can't be assumed non-voters won't vote this time. Just looking at the Orkney figures comparing 2010 and 2015 while 2500 of the 6500 increase in the SNP vote was at the expense of the Lib Dems , the other parties changed little. The majority of the increase about 4000 was from previous non-voters. The question this election is whether Corbyn will mobilise non-voters in the way Brexit did.

    This makes the classic mistake of assuming no churn, so if somebody gets 10,000 votes five years apart, they are the same 10,000 people. They might be, or they might be COMPLETELY different, or somewhere in between.

    In the Orkney case, it's perhaps more likely that the SNP took from all other parties (particularly LDs as they had a bad election, but others too) but that turnout was up for ALL parties which fully compensated the loss of votes to the SNP for for all parties except the LDs. Indeed, it's possible (albeit unlikely) that NONE of the previous non-voters went to the SNP, that they all went to other parties, but that the other parties lost previous voters to the SNP in large numbers. You simply cannot tell whether your story or one of mine is correct from the numbers on the page.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044


    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    Yes, that could work. But it needs to be as eye catching as possible. I would say: call the press, get the cameras lined up, then get the bus to drive through a giant paper backdrop with Theresa on the roof, waving her arms about. Is that bus still driveable? Can we get hold of it?
    Having that bus would be a killer touch! Maybe we could have Boris driving it? (Okay, maybe not! But it would spoil Scott's entire day!)
    iirc the bus that May is travelling in, is the same bus. It has been repainted.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    TOPPING said:

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    Ha god yes. And cheap at twice the price. It would only be doubling the £8bn real increase she announced today.
    Agreed, and I suggested this over a month ago.

    Can I have Timothy's job, and just consult pb'ers for ideas?

    (PS. She won't do it)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @isam UKIP effort in Thurrock still ongoing ? With May's wobbles, the crossing and Corbyn still being offputting to pensioners could be an outside shot.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    AndyJS said:
    Not sure Corbyn's visits have much to do with anything except how many members in the relevant CLP.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.

    Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.

    She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.

    Can she get any more pathetic? I wonder if she really does have some kind of nervous condition that makes it impossible for het to deal with scrutiny.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    welshowl said:

    tessyC said:

    For people who want to bet on Cardiff North. There is a large student halls called talybont just inside the constituency. It is filled with first year students, although the semester doesn't officially end until this Friday the last of the first year exams have ended and it's pretty quiet in there. It's probably filled by 4000 students in term time. In 2015 the place was full at the general election.

    Llys Tal y Bont surely ;-)
    That was your hall wasn't it along with Frits? Have you been persuaded to join Facebook yet :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: New @ITVWales poll extends Labour's lead:
    Lab 46% (+2)
    Con 35% (+1)
    Plaid 8% (-1)
    Lib Dems 5% (-1)
    UKIP 5% (no change)

    Labour are now more popular in Wales than the SNP are in Scotland. Do we get all of the seats bar 3?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    AndyJS said:
    Not sure Corbyn's visits have much to do with anything except how many members in the relevant CLP.

    The Tory visits mean something because of their data crunching, organisation and campaign competence.

    The Labour visits don't mean the same thing, because they don't have the same thing.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    PaulM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is there any reason to think the Wales poll isn't broadly reflective of what's happening in Labour's heartlands in England?

    Unlike Scotland, Wales hasn't diverged much from the results in the rest of the country in a long time. In elections or in referendums.

    The national polling.

    Oh Who knows any more. The Tories on 44ish have to be SOMEWHERE though. Maybe they're on 70% of the vote in Lamb's constituency o_O
    The Tories will do well in areas that have actively experienced high immigration from the EU, and are more actively aspirational, or areas that used to have heavy industry, or fishing, that feel they have suffered directly from EU legislation.

    West/East Midlands, East Anglia, perhaps a few places in the North East.

    Demographics will play off against each other here, with some close results.

    I'd be double-checking any area that was previously disillusioned with Labour, but had a strong history of coal-mining or union organisation, for instance.
    As i've been saying for weeks those are the areas where the "Not Tory" mindset is most embedded. Two weeks ago, Baxter had the likes of Makerfield being 40% Tory. Never going to happen. Labour people in these areas might have been dissilusioned with Labour, and some might have gone so far as to not vote or try UKIP last time, but putting the cross next to Conservative is just a step too far.

    To be fair, Mrs May is giving Not Tory voters plenty of reasons not to be Tory voters.

  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.

    What????

    That's crazy.

    There was no way on God's Earth she could fail to put in a better performance on WH than Corbyn, and the story would have been about the contrast.

    Now the story will be she's frit (again).

    WTF does she think she's doing?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    DanSmith said:

    isam said:

    "In the lead up to last year’s EU referendum something very significant, and very sad, happened; Leave were flying in the opinion polls and as short in the betting as they had been all campaign, then, on June 16th, Labour MP and Remain supporter Jo Cox was murdered by a man who would almost certainly have been a leaver. The political analysts agreed it was a blow for the anti EU movement, when polling resumed there was a marked shift towards Remain, and Leave drifted from 2.4 to 15 on the betting exchanges. A week after Cox's death, Leave won 52/48; there had been no shift to Remain."

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1

    Pollsters got 2010 right, 2012 & 16 mayorals right, indyref right, Lib Dems right, Ukip right, Corbyn right.

    ICM, TNS, Opinium, YouGov & Survation got EURef right within margin of error

    Spare me the "who trusts polls now" opinion. People think it makes them sound wise but it just makes them sound innumerate.
    Margins of error of 2-3% matter far more when predicting seat spreads than in national referenda.

    Even two pollsters moving lock-step with each other on national voteshares could both be out by 20-30 seats on the Con-Lab shares, because local factors, and sniper targeting, can make such a difference in hyper-marginal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547



    In truth, I think May, Timothy and Hill are far more interested in their own personal domestic hobbyhorses than they are Brexit.

    I don't think Theresa May is enjoying Brexit at all. She hates situations she can't control. That's why she has not done a single effective thing to ease the transition but spent nearly a year in displacement activity.

  • Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.

    Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.

    She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.
    Woman's Hour is not a "major public event". It's a pretty standard interview. An interview Corbyn cocked up, but hardly an horrific minefield from which few escape alive.

    May just doesn't like the basics of campaigning. She's risk averse to the point of total paralysis, and ironically that's what's doing for her because it's totally out of keeping with "strong and stable".
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Barnesian said:

    When the facts change I change my opinions, so here's mine: a large chunk of people just want an end to austerity.

    They voted for Brexit and are contemplating voting for Corbyn for the same reason they
    voted for Brexit: extra money on public services they don't have to pay for, but can vote for.

    That's why the £350m per week was so powerful, as are tax rises for earners over £80k and corporation tax rises.

    I probably flattered myself - as a Brexiteer - that all Leave voters were driven by self-governance, sovereignty and making the laws in the UK.

    That is true for many - and a good chunk of UKIP defectors will stick with the Tories for those very reasons, because they are, for instance, more trusted on immigration and delivering a proper Brexit than Labour - but another chunk are, at heart, rather EU agnostic and voted UKIP as a NOTA option, Brexit for the money, and are now voting Corbyn because more credibly offered free sweeties than May can.

    Two conclusions:

    (1) A good chunk of 2015 UKIP voters will vote Corbyn. I'd expect these to be in the areas where the Leave vote was high, but also the Labour vote has been previously high, and public services significantly affected
    (2) May really should have linked a higher NHS budget to a Brexit dividend by GE2022, like I suggested here almost a month ago. Pledge the £350m extra in cash terms.

    She didn't, and as she just sounded like she offered Salt, so she is now suffering from not scooping up all those Kipper votes.

    The Left would - probably - have always rallied to Corbyn as the nature of the GE becoming a two-party race became clear, and they discovered the same reasons he became so adored by Labour party members during his leadership battles; his seductive stub campaigning.

    But not all those Kipper votes needed to be lost. Tory lead on the day of 5-7% over Labour seems about right.

    I think that is a good analysis.

    Only the well off can vote for idealistic reasons, whether on the left or the right. There are quite a lot of wealthy socialists.

    The vast majority vote out of self interest, - on the left to survive, on the right to get richer.
    There are also those in the middle (aspirational) who want to move from subsisting to self-sufficiency, a bigger house, better car, a mortgage etc.
    I would suggest that accounts for the vast majority of people. Unfortunately they don't exist in Barnesian's world. Just the worthy poor and the evil rich.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    @isam UKIP effort in Thurrock still ongoing ? With May's wobbles, the crossing and Corbyn still being offputting to pensioners could be an outside shot.

    I would have thought so.

    There is a fellow in twitter focussing exclusively on the battle for Thurrock and SB&ET!

    @ITMA_MikeD

    He hates Tim Aker!!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Ms. Apocalypse, I hope the QT audience is actually balanced.

    On betting: I was considering back 400-449 on Betfair (5.8, Con seats) but decided against it. Green for 350-399, and quite comfortable with that. I'd be a bit surprised if they, in the exit poll, were forecast to get much more, or less, than that.

    Incidentally, if people do think Labour will do well, I'd just reiterate the 5 on Labour to retake Morley & Outwood. Under 500 vote Con majority, Lab candidate is a long-term local councillor.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.

    Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.

    She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.

    Can she get any more pathetic? I wonder if she really does have some kind of nervous condition that makes it impossible for het to deal with scrutiny.

    I think the conservatives will be asking Major to appear to tell us all the risks .
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    isam said:

    Now that we are leaving the EU and politicians seem to be listening re immigration, I would love to vote Labour again. It has never sat well with me not to, but not in a million years could I vote for Corbyn, McD, and Abbott. They cheered our troops dying in Ireland, we all know it.

    "We" don't know it at all. I mean, I know it and most people posting here know it, but "normal" people don't know it. At all. For whatever reason, loads of people seem to talk of him as a decent, principled man - the terrorism stuff seems to have no traction and is dismissed as smearing by the "right-wing media". And it's not just left-wingers I know who say this sort of thing. Perhaps it stand to reason... how could it be feasible that the Labour party would elect a terrorist sympathiser as its leader?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.

    Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.

    She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.

    Can she get any more pathetic? I wonder if she really does have some kind of nervous condition that makes it impossible for het to deal with scrutiny.

    This is why the Tories should have had a leadership contest, not a coronation.

    If they hadn't had a leadership contest in 2005, it would have been David Davis. Cameron would never have happened.

    May has never been put to close scrutiny, and under it in this campaign has folded. The Tories are finding out that in their eagerness to 'unite the party' they may have lost the country.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.

    What????

    That's crazy.

    There was no way on God's Earth she could fail to put in a better performance on WH than Corbyn, and the story would have been about the contrast.

    Now the story will be she's frit (again).

    WTF does she think she's doing?
    There was talk on here that she needed to show more of her team, especially other women.

    So maybe somebody was listening.

    Still "Where's Wally" game has become "Where's Hammond?"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Breaking, via Twitter: reports of a large explosion in Vatican City.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    When the facts change I change my opinions, so here's mine: a large chunk of people just want an end to austerity.

    They voted for Brexit and are contemplating voting for Corbyn for the same reason they
    voted for Brexit: extra money on public services they don't have to pay for, but can vote for.

    That's why the £350m per week was so powerful, as are tax rises for earners over £80k and corporation tax rises.

    I probably flattered myself - as a Brexiteer - that all Leave voters were driven by self-governance, sovereignty and making the laws in the UK.

    That is true for many - and a good chunk of UKIP defectors will stick with the Tories for those very reasons, because they are, for instance, more trusted on immigration and delivering a proper Brexit than Labour - but another chunk are, at heart, rather EU agnostic and voted UKIP as a NOTA option, Brexit for the money, and are now voting Corbyn because more credibly offered free sweeties than May can.

    Two conclusions:

    (1) A good chunk of 2015 UKIP voters will vote Corbyn. I'd expect these to be in the areas where the Leave vote was high, but also the Labour vote has been previously high, and public services significantly affected
    (2) May really should have linked a higher NHS budget to a Brexit dividend by GE2022, like I suggested here almost a month ago. Pledge the £350m extra in cash terms.

    She didn't, and as she just sounded like she offered Salt, so she is now suffering from not scooping up all those Kipper votes.

    The Left would - probably - have always rallied to Corbyn as the nature of the GE becoming a two-party race became clear, and they discovered the same reasons he became so adored by Labour party members during his leadership battles; his seductive stub campaigning.

    But not all those Kipper votes needed to be lost. Tory lead on the day of 5-7% over Labour seems about right.

    I think that is a good analysis.

    Only the well off can vote for idealistic reasons, whether on the left or the right. There are quite a lot of wealthy socialists.

    The vast majority vote out of self interest, - on the left to survive, on the right to get richer.
    There are also those in the middle (aspirational) who want to move from subsisting to self-sufficiency, a bigger house, better car, a mortgage etc.
    Yes -but these will also vote out of self interest.
    I think there are relatively few who vote based on ideology. (Quite a lot on PB I suspect).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Someone needs to tell May to get on fucking Women's hour.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited June 2017

    Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.

    Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.

    Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
    The point with the £350m pledge was that it was the amount that country would save per week through leaving the EU.

    It wasn't a figure May recognised or agreed with. And she was correct to reject it - whether you believe in leaving the EU or not, it simply wasn't accurate.

    So, if May were to promise this, she either has to: (i) back down on her previous position (and demonstrably lie) by saying "don't worry, when we leave, the £350m will be there - no need to cost it"; or (ii) accept it was a lie but say it'll be raised in some other way - in which case, what has it got to do with the EU?

    Either £18 billion per annum extra for the NHS is sensible or not, and either it's affordable or not. Doing it for no other reason than because someone else saw fit to paint it on the side of a bus is an Ed Stone level silly gimic.
    By 2022, inflation will have accounted for a chunk of the £350m. It will be manageable. Hell, Corbyn's lot has a £58 billion hole in their numbers that nobody seems to be asking them about.

    Unlike Ed's gimmick, it would cement Theresa with delivering the benefits of Brexit. At the moment, there is fuck all to look forward to from Brexit - the voters need some red meat. Even Remainers would be pleased with that outcome. The Leavers would be ecstatic.
    Didn't understand why they didn't put it on page one of the manifesto. Would have underscored her "I do what I say and you can trust me message" and, by 2022, should be just about doable. But doing it now would look panicky. Might still work though. Also worth promising to end BAT on fuel.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.

    Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.

    She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.

    Can she get any more pathetic? I wonder if she really does have some kind of nervous condition that makes it impossible for het to deal with scrutiny.

    From Boudica to breakdown, in one month.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    Something to steady Tory nerves:

    Eighteen months ago, the answer to the question "Can non-voters win the election for Labour" would have been a resounding no. Some of the polls seem to suggest that non-voters can get Labour close. That, to me, sounds unlikely — but we'll know within a week.
    Matthew Elliot and Dominic Cummings were running Leave. They know what they're doing.

    Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina are running the Tory campaign. They know what they're doing.

    Admittedly, May doesn't quite so much, and Corbyn is far more confident, but where is Labour's crack control centre?

    Not having that could cost them dozens of seats. As far as I can tell they just have a rabble of enthusiastic mobs who just follow JC chanting wherever he goes.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Pulpstar said:

    @isam UKIP effort in Thurrock still ongoing ? With May's wobbles, the crossing and Corbyn still being offputting to pensioners could be an outside shot.

    "If Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party is to form the next government, history suggests it has to win in Thurrock, which is why it's such an important seat.

    Despite the party's disastrous showing in the 1983 general election under Michael Foot, when it was virtually wiped out across the south of England (outside London), Thurrock remained red.

    The Conservatives won every seat in Essex in 1987, but Labour's Andrew McKinlay regained Thurrock in 1992 - their only win in Essex that year.

    Mr McKinlay held it until 2010, when it went blue again.

    Election analysis websites have Thurrock high on Labour's list of target seats (seventh on the Election Polling website; in the top 10 on the "centre left" Labour List website; number eight on the UK Polling Report website).

    The Conservatives are hoping the constituency's pro-Brexit vote (72% Leave v 28% Remain) will work in their favour rather than Labour's and increase the 536 majority which the Tories' Jackie Doyle-Price had in the 2015 general election"


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-essex-40044611
This discussion has been closed.