@christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.
Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.
She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.
Can she get any more pathetic? I wonder if she really does have some kind of nervous condition that makes it impossible for het to deal with scrutiny.
This election has clearly knocked her confidence, but then one wonders how confident she was to begin with. There was a narrative pre-GE that she appeared in public less than Cameron because she was simply a different kind of leader. I think it's quite clear now that it's because she knew she did not have his communicative skills. We have a leader who with her confident seemingly shot and whose spell on the media has been broken in a GE of all times, will shortly have to negotiate with Brussels. It's a scenario totally set up for failure. Especially given that with the grammar schools emphasis in her re-launch speech, she's clearly not stopped listening to Timothy.
If she does have a nervous condition I have to wonder why she ran for the leadership, knowing what it entails. I suffer from generalised anxiety, and I try to avoid very high-stress situations because of my condition.
@christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.
What????
That's crazy.
There was no way on God's Earth she could fail to put in a better performance on WH than Corbyn, and the story would have been about the contrast.
Now the story will be she's frit (again).
WTF does she think she's doing?
In a way it makes sense for her to refuse to do all of these things as a bloc, rather than doing some of them and not others. At the moment her party's vote share is up about 6% on the last election. She doesn't want to do anything to jeopardise that.
@christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.
Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.
She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.
Woman's Hour is not a "major public event". It's a pretty standard interview. An interview Corbyn cocked up, but hardly an horrific minefield from which few escape alive.
May just doesn't like the basics of campaigning. She's risk averse to the point of total paralysis, and ironically that's what's doing for her because it's totally out of keeping with "strong and stable".
She should remember that in WW1, units which kept their heads down and slunk about in their trenches took heavier casualties that others that mounted raids and aggressive patrols.
England were strolling. Hales' wicket gives Bangladesh a sniff...
I used to be a cricket obsessive a few years ago but all the characters / eccentrics seem to have disappeared from the game, and that includes umpires as well as players. I find it all very robotic these days.
Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.
Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.
Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
The point with the £350m pledge was that it was the amount that country would save per week through leaving the EU.
It wasn't a figure May recognised or agreed with. And she was correct to reject it - whether you believe in leaving the EU or not, it simply wasn't accurate.
So, if May were to promise this, she either has to: (i) back down on her previous position (and demonstrably lie) by saying "don't worry, when we leave, the £350m will be there - no need to cost it"; or (ii) accept it was a lie but say it'll be raised in some other way - in which case, what has it got to do with the EU?
Either £18 billion per annum extra for the NHS is sensible or not, and either it's affordable or not. Doing it for no other reason than because someone else saw fit to paint it on the side of a bus is an Ed Stone level silly gimic.
By 2022, inflation will have accounted for a chunk of the £350m. It will be manageable. Hell, Corbyn's lot has a £58 billion hole in their numbers that nobody seems to be asking them about.
Unlike Ed's gimmick, it would cement Theresa with delivering the benefits of Brexit. At the moment, there is fuck all to look forward to from Brexit - the voters need some red meat. Even Remainers would be pleased with that outcome. The Leavers would be ecstatic.
Is there any reason to think the Wales poll isn't broadly reflective of what's happening in Labour's heartlands in England?
Unlike Scotland, Wales hasn't diverged much from the results in the rest of the country in a long time. In elections or in referendums.
The national polling.
Oh Who knows any more. The Tories on 44ish have to be SOMEWHERE though. Maybe they're on 70% of the vote in Lamb's constituency o_O
The Tories will do well in areas that have actively experienced high immigration from the EU, and are more actively aspirational, or areas that used to have heavy industry, or fishing, that feel they have suffered directly from EU legislation.
West/East Midlands, East Anglia, perhaps a few places in the North East.
Demographics will play off against each other here, with some close results.
I'd be double-checking any area that was previously disillusioned with Labour, but had a strong history of coal-mining or union organisation, for instance.
Hasn't London experienced high immigration from the EU?
Yes, but London is a different story. As is Manchester, to be fair.
It's a different story because the evidence fails to fit your hypothesis?
Ditto the NE – a pro-brexit area with the square root of sod all immigration.
Anyone might think that Brexit was more a knee-jerk reaction against bogeymen foreigners.
Boston and Skegness, East Anglia, the Midlands, Kent and the major cities have all experienced notable levels of EU immigration, to name but a few.
It's where it represents what is perceived locally as a detrimental social and economic change, or the risk of one in future, that it's a problem.
That is not the case in the inner major metropolitan cities.
The reason why it is a different story is because such a small % of people born and bred in London still live there. A fairly big % of English people living in London were not born and bred there and have only ever known it as a transient place. Indeed many are attracted by the diversity that people who were born there disliked enough to move
Boston and Skegness, East Anglia, the Midlands, Kent etc are places where families have lived for generations that have recently seen massive population changes, hence the difference
Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.
Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.
Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
The point with the £350m pledge was that it was the amount that country would save per week through leaving the EU.
It wasn't a figure May recognised or agreed with. And she was correct to reject it - whether you believe in leaving the EU or not, it simply wasn't accurate.
So, if May were to promise this, she either has to: (i) back down on her previous position (and demonstrably lie) by saying "don't worry, when we leave, the £350m will be there - no need to cost it"; or (ii) accept it was a lie but say it'll be raised in some other way - in which case, what has it got to do with the EU?
Either £18 billion per annum extra for the NHS is sensible or not, and either it's affordable or not. Doing it for no other reason than because someone else saw fit to paint it on the side of a bus is an Ed Stone level silly gimic.
No-one cares, as long as the £350m happens. And gimmick is code for: something unexpected and popular that I wish I'd thought of first.
Osborne delayed an EU payment by two years and claimed he'd halved the bill.
Theresa May has reportedly turned down an invitation to appear on BBC Radio 4’s Woman’s Hour tomorrow morning, and is sending education secretary Justine Greening instead.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
Theresa May has reportedly turned down an invitation to appear on BBC Radio 4’s Woman’s Hour tomorrow morning, and is sending education secretary Justine Greening instead.
Got my first election material of the campaign. A LD leaflet without a bar chart in sight, misleading or otherwise, and what seems like missing text ("The Conservatives are taking this area for granted. local residents when they have become frustrated with the Conservatives'. It's time for a change").
And Tory 'standing with Theresa May' and a warning that a shock Corbyn win is more possible than you think, which is less funny than it was 4 weeks ago.
Someone needs to tell May to get on fucking Women's hour.
The weird thing is she's fine in interview. Not compelling, that's for sure, but the epitome of steady. Frankly, she needs somebody to yell at her, "Stop f***ing whinging and get out on the stump as if there's a f***ing election on - you can shuffle cabinet papers and take a holiday on Friday week you daft old crow."
Theresa May has reportedly turned down an invitation to appear on BBC Radio 4’s Woman’s Hour tomorrow morning, and is sending education secretary Justine Greening instead.
Okay I don't like May and am voting Tory under sufferance because of Brexit. So the following is not meant as an excuse, nor even an attack, just an observation.
Is she ill?
I mean I have seen her in a pretty dominant frame of mind at Question Time and when doing other interviews as Home Secretary. Whilst I never took to her I, never for a minute considered her as utterly incapable as you would have to be to make Corbyn look good.
So I have to ask if she is so unwell that they are keeping her away from any situation where it might become apparent.
This was just a random thought, has absolutely no evidence to support it and is almost certainly bollocks. But I thought I would ask opinions never the less.
Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.
Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.
Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
Yes, that could work. But it needs to be as eye catching as possible. I would say: call the press, get the cameras lined up, then get the bus to drive through a giant paper backdrop with Theresa on the roof, waving her arms about. Is that bus still driveable? Can we get hold of it?
Having that bus would be a killer touch! Maybe we could have Boris driving it? (Okay, maybe not! But it would spoil Scott's entire day!)
iirc the bus that May is travelling in, is the same bus. It has been repainted.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
When it has been all about the leader in advertising, it is not unreasonable to expect the leader rather than anyone else to show up.
They really do. Off the record they'll admit it. Of course it's an irregular verb - "I ensure a prudent supply of future development opportunities", "You have a landbank which you will build out gradually", "He is a hoarding profiteer".
Yes, sure. Instead of turning over their capital as fast as they can, they deliberately keep it tied up so as to minimise their return on capital. Or something equally fantastical.
I own a small 4 acre paddock that came with my house as agricultural land (horseriding is quite popular in Leics). I rent it out to a farmer, who grazes sheep on it. The agricultural rent would be about £200 per year, but I waive that provided he does the hedging and grazes it enough to keep the grass short. Sheep are pleasant neighbours. Agricultural land in Leics is about £10 000 per acre on the market, currently zero rated for council tax. It is pleasant to look at but not economic.
Planning permission would increase the value about 25 fold if I were to build 40 ish houses. The higher density the more valuble. I would happily pay a little tax on such a million pound windfall. My neighbours would be rather annoyed though!
Would you happily pay LVT on it now ?
I could afford to. I don't think my farmer could do so at the same rate.
He does mixed arable and pastoral farming, owns 2000 acres in several blocks and has an income about a quarter of mine. Of course he does not pay for food, accomodation or commuting, so the income goes further. Like most farmets he is land rich, but cash poor.
Any LVT on agricultural land set at even 1% of £10 k per acre would be most of his income. He would be bankrupt. There would be no option of sticking up his prices because of food imports (his lamb goes to France). The land would be unsellable for agriculture too.
That's rather my point. The theoretical economic case for LVT is an interesting one, but the transition from existing arrangements would be extraordinarily disruptive for some people. That property is necessarily a long term investment, and that this would be upending the rules more or less overnight is not a good thing.
Okay I don't like May and am voting Tory under sufferance because of Brexit. So the following is not meant as an excuse, nor even an attack, just an observation.
Is she ill?
I mean I have seen her in a pretty dominant frame of mind at Question Time and when doing other interviews as Home Secretary. Whilst I never took to her I, never for a minute considered her as utterly incapable as you would have to be to make Corbyn look good.
So I have to ask if she is so unwell that they are keeping her away from any situation where it might become apparent.
This was just a random thought, has absolutely no evidence to support it and is almost certainly bollocks. But I thought I would ask opinions never the less.
When the leader of a party in a general election campaign is avoiding TV and radio it is reasonable to ask if there is something wrong with them.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
When it has been all about the leader in advertising, it is not unreasonable to expect the leader rather than anyone else to show up.
Perhaps they should secure the booking before advertising the Headliner?
Theresa isn't up to the job. It's abundantly clear.
She needs to go, whatever the result of the election.
How can you be a politician at any level and not be able to debate a point and put a view forward? It's about the only thing they are all meant to be good at.
@PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: New @ITVWales poll extends Labour's lead: Lab 46% (+2) Con 35% (+1) Plaid 8% (-1) Lib Dems 5% (-1) UKIP 5% (no change)
Changes since GE2015:
Lab +9% Con +9% PC -4% LD -2% UKIP -9% Greens & Others -3%
Wales percentages, GE2015:
Lab 36.88% Con 27.22% UKIP 13.64% PC 12.13% LD 6.53% Greens 2.56% Others 1.04%
Yes, that Wales lead for Con was a complete outlier, they have returned home, even though Con are up on last time. LDs once more needing some very efficient vote share just to keep hold of one seat.
The days of 150+ majority dreams are over, there's no way the Tories are sweeping Wales, or places in the North they have never won before. 50-70 at best. 10-30 at worst.
@christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.
Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.
She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.
Woman's Hour is not a "major public event". It's a pretty standard interview. An interview Corbyn cocked up, but hardly an horrific minefield from which few escape alive.
May just doesn't like the basics of campaigning. She's risk averse to the point of total paralysis, and ironically that's what's doing for her because it's totally out of keeping with "strong and stable".
To TMay any public event is a major one.
TMay is probably even more freaked out about doing it because the demographic which tunes into Women's Hour are older women, who tend to vote Tory. She doesn't want to risk upsetting them even more.
I agree that May doesn't like campaigning at all. Why she called an GE then, is beyond me. She probably thought that the Tory lead was so high she could get away with limited campaigning. Perhaps, if the manifesto hadn't been such a disaster that *could* have worked. But ceding the airwaves to Corbyn was a dreadful mistake. The Tory Manifesto needed some positives in it to allow the Conservatives to have some control of the narrative, and get some kind of hearing on the airwaves.
The Right Wing Press don't think they owe TMay anything. Dacre and co. feel they are the ones in control and dictate the terms.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
In peace time you don't have to go on Newsnight just because you get a call.
But this is an election, and one the Tories themselves have specifically framed a Presidential battle of Corbyn v May. Yet Corbyn, for all his flaws and foot-in-mouth moments, is out there doing it wherever you look, whereas May... where the f*** is May???
Okay I don't like May and am voting Tory under sufferance because of Brexit. So the following is not meant as an excuse, nor even an attack, just an observation.
Is she ill?
I mean I have seen her in a pretty dominant frame of mind at Question Time and when doing other interviews as Home Secretary. Whilst I never took to her I, never for a minute considered her as utterly incapable as you would have to be to make Corbyn look good.
So I have to ask if she is so unwell that they are keeping her away from any situation where it might become apparent.
This was just a random thought, has absolutely no evidence to support it and is almost certainly bollocks. But I thought I would ask opinions never the less.
When the leader of a party in a general election campaign is avoiding TV and radio it is reasonable to ask if there is something wrong with them.
Oh Dave, come back, all is forgiven.
And yet today she has done a set piece speech and taken questions from factory workers on TV. Radio is not a good way to get your message out, especially when you have a slight stutter.
Someone needs to tell May to get on fucking Women's hour.
I seriously wonder whether she is ill or having a nervous breakdown.
Damn. Did we all think exactly the same thought at the same time? :-)
It seems so.
People were saying she looked like she had a bit of botox for the ITV Q&A... maybe steroids.
To me she seems like a nice, old fashioned woman not really cut out for the showbiz of a GE. Also it is always way more nervewracking to be big fav. Corbo had nothing to lose
Someone needs to tell May to get on fucking Women's hour.
I seriously wonder whether she is ill or having a nervous breakdown.
You jest, surely, but I confess the thought crossed my mind today.
She called the fecking election, why wasn't she at the debate - she ill or something?
She has diabetes, I see that can be brought on by stress, so maybe it is worse now than before?
Yes very true my best friend has diabetes insulin injections since aged 14.He has had many complications because of this.
I know quite a lot about the condition, and there's nothing that quite fits. The most common complications relate to loss of feeling in the extremities and loss of sight. Stress could trigger a hyperglycemic incident, but that was surely true as Home Secretary. Unless this is a lot more stressful and she's worried about passing out.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
In peace time you don't have to go on Newsnight just because you get a call.
But this is an election, and one the Tories themselves have specifically framed a Presidential battle of Corbyn v May. Yet Corbyn, for all his flaws and foot-in-mouth moments, is out there doing it wherever you look, whereas May... where the f*** is May???
Jesus, he HAS to, he's behind. She doesn't, she's ahead. It's not rocket science. I'm not voting May cos she won't do radio 4. Hmm mmmmmmmm.
I agree that May doesn't like campaigning at all. Why she called an GE then, is beyond me.
She wants a personal mandate, not to piggy-back on Cameron's. She has to do it eventually and probably doesn't see herself having more than one General Election as PM. So do it while the position is as favourable, get the whole nasty business over and done with, then shut the door to Number 10 and get on with power.
Trouble is, the mentality of seeing the election as one horrific trip to the dentist is sub-optimal to say the least. It will probably still work out for her, but her head isn't in the game.
@PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: New @ITVWales poll extends Labour's lead: Lab 46% (+2) Con 35% (+1) Plaid 8% (-1) Lib Dems 5% (-1) UKIP 5% (no change)
Changes since GE2015:
Lab +9% Con +9% PC -4% LD -2% UKIP -9% Greens & Others -3%
Wales percentages, GE2015:
Lab 36.88% Con 27.22% UKIP 13.64% PC 12.13% LD 6.53% Greens 2.56% Others 1.04%
Yes, that Wales lead for Con was a complete outlier, they have returned home, even though Con are up on last time. LDs once more needing some very efficient vote share just to keep hold of one seat.
The days of 150+ majority dreams are over, there's no way the Tories are sweeping Wales, or places in the North they have never won before. 50-70 at best. 10-30 at worst.
50-70 would be an excellent result for the country in my eyes. The only problem with it is that it would not get rid of Corbyn so the Labour party would remain largely ineffectual as an opposition.
WTH? Who will save us from this absolute nightmare scenario?
The Tories need to (and in any case will) get rid of TMay. I thought she was the best of a bad bunch a year ago, and she still is. But they need to unearth someone who isn't anyone who ran in the leadership contest a year ago.
This one Is REALLY obvious in hindsight but given her type 1 diabetes and the fact an election campaign is incredibly intense if you're a party leader why on earth go for such a long campaign ?
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
In peace time you don't have to go on Newsnight just because you get a call.
But this is an election, and one the Tories themselves have specifically framed a Presidential battle of Corbyn v May. Yet Corbyn, for all his flaws and foot-in-mouth moments, is out there doing it wherever you look, whereas May... where the f*** is May???
Jesus, he HAS to, he's behind. She doesn't, she's ahead. It's not rocket science. I'm not voting May cos she won't do radio 4. Hmm mmmmmmmm.
Given we've had a poll with the lead at 3, even if we do not believe that, there's a good chance by Monday she won't be ahead in at least one poll. It's not like there's been any good news for the Tories, and Labour seem to go up whether they have a good day or a bad day.
Theresa isn't up to the job. It's abundantly clear.
She needs to go, whatever the result of the election.
How can you be a politician at any level and not be able to debate a point and put a view forward? It's about the only thing they are all meant to be good at.
The debates are a bunch of circuses with predominantly lefty shouters present, which the media like - they don't want calm discussion of the issues, they want blood, they think its good for ratings and their pockets.
@PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: New @ITVWales poll extends Labour's lead: Lab 46% (+2) Con 35% (+1) Plaid 8% (-1) Lib Dems 5% (-1) UKIP 5% (no change)
Changes since GE2015:
Lab +9% Con +9% PC -4% LD -2% UKIP -9% Greens & Others -3%
Wales percentages, GE2015:
Lab 36.88% Con 27.22% UKIP 13.64% PC 12.13% LD 6.53% Greens 2.56% Others 1.04%
Yes, that Wales lead for Con was a complete outlier, they have returned home, even though Con are up on last time. LDs once more needing some very efficient vote share just to keep hold of one seat.
The days of 150+ majority dreams are over, there's no way the Tories are sweeping Wales, or places in the North they have never won before. 50-70 at best. 10-30 at worst.
50-70 would be an excellent result for the country in my eyes. The only problem with it is that it would not get rid of Corbyn so the Labour party would remain largely ineffectual as an opposition.
That is the problem - as a majority size, it's my preference.
Yes, the Women's Hour thing is strange. It's also ameliorated Corbyn's biggest idiocy of the campaign; the Tories can't ridicule him over it now when their own leader fails to show up.
And yet if they get a similar percentage to last time in Scotland, and get lucky with transfers, they could end up with more MPs in Scotland than the rest of the UK put together.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
When it has been all about the leader in advertising, it is not unreasonable to expect the leader rather than anyone else to show up.
Perhaps they should secure the booking before advertising the Headliner?
It is Mrs Frit in a zimmer frame , she should stick to speaking to 20 people in a aircraft hangar .
Damn. Did we all think exactly the same thought at the same time? :-)
I posted this at 1:08
Is she having a breakdown? @LOS_Fisher: Theresa May's "people can have faith in me because I have faith in them" line... makes no sense...?
Sorry missed that Scott. But it does seem today is the day we seriously start asking that question. I simply cannot believe that her actions over the last few weeks (even accepting the idiotic misspelling of the manifesto) are those of a senior politician in good health.
'An empty taxicab pulled up at 10 Downing Street, and when the door opened, Attlee got out.' Thus Churchill on the epic unimpressiveness of the man whom history now calls the most important peacetime British Prime Minister of the twentieth century.
WTH? Who will save us from this absolute nightmare scenario?
The Tories need to (and in any case will) get rid of TMay. I thought she was the best of a bad bunch a year ago, and she still is. But they need to unearth someone who isn't anyone who ran in the leadership contest a year ago.
Theresa isn't up to the job. It's abundantly clear.
She needs to go, whatever the result of the election.
How can you be a politician at any level and not be able to debate a point and put a view forward? It's about the only thing they are all meant to be good at.
The debates are a bunch of circuses with predominantly lefty shouters present, which the media like - they don't want calm discussion of the issues, they want blood, they think its good for ratings and their pockets.
Please spare us this Trumpian nonsense. The public expects politicians to be held to account by the media.
This one Is REALLY obvious in hindsight but given her type 1 diabetes and the fact an election campaign is incredibly intense if you're a party leader why on earth go for such a long campaign ?
She clearly manages it well as PM - I mean, can you imagine a hyperglycemic fit in public - and there's nothing particularly different. I can't imagine the PM always gets the benefit of a dietary routine the rest of the time.
Someone needs to tell May to get on fucking Women's hour.
I seriously wonder whether she is ill or having a nervous breakdown.
You jest, surely, but I confess the thought crossed my mind today.
She called the fecking election, why wasn't she at the debate - she ill or something?
She very probably is ill.
* When she was answering questions about why she didn't go to the debate in Cambridge she looked as though she was cracking up.
* In Plymouth she seemed as if she wasn't "there". It was as if she was repeating lines about the general topic matter of the question - perhaps lines she'd mugged up for QT tomorrow - while dropping in the word "Plymouth" occasionally.
* Now she's dropped out of Woman's Hour.
I imagine she will drop out of QT too.
Remember she suffers from type 1 diabetes. Psychological stress can make the symptoms of that illness worse.
If what I think is happening is happening then she should prioritise her health, let everybody including her opponents wish her all the best, and somebody else (Philip Hammond?) should take over as caretaker prime minister and as party leader.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
In peace time you don't have to go on Newsnight just because you get a call.
But this is an election, and one the Tories themselves have specifically framed a Presidential battle of Corbyn v May. Yet Corbyn, for all his flaws and foot-in-mouth moments, is out there doing it wherever you look, whereas May... where the f*** is May???
Jesus, he HAS to, he's behind. She doesn't, she's ahead. It's not rocket science. I'm not voting May cos she won't do radio 4. Hmm mmmmmmmm.
Given we've had a poll with the lead at 3, even if we do not believe that, there's a good chance by Monday she won't be ahead in at least one poll. It's not like there's been any good news for the Tories, and Labour seem to go up whether they have a good day or a bad day.
Theresa isn't up to the job. It's abundantly clear.
She needs to go, whatever the result of the election.
How can you be a politician at any level and not be able to debate a point and put a view forward? It's about the only thing they are all meant to be good at.
The debates are a bunch of circuses with predominantly lefty shouters present, which the media like - they don't want calm discussion of the issues, they want blood, they think its good for ratings and their pockets.
Rather suggests their internal polling tells them she doesn't need to. Tweets two days ago saying the 15 point lead was in line with what they are saying on the ground. Could be bluster but this is being run like Blair 97. No debate cos no need, it's already won, avoid all risk and you can shed one or two percent safely.
Theresa isn't up to the job. It's abundantly clear.
She needs to go, whatever the result of the election.
How can you be a politician at any level and not be able to debate a point and put a view forward? It's about the only thing they are all meant to be good at.
The debates are a bunch of circuses with predominantly lefty shouters present, which the media like - they don't want calm discussion of the issues, they want blood, they think its good for ratings and their pockets.
Yes but that is how it has always been and always will be. It's a fact of life. Your bog standard Tory MP has to be able to handle that sort of nonsense.
Theresa's team urgently need to stop the rot. I suggest a radical intervention: say a joint press statement by David Cameron and Barack Obama pointing out that Corbyn is a bad egg and that Theresa is the only one to turn to in our hour of need. Theresa can't fail to be boosted by a sprinkling of stardust from that pair, and the electorate will be reminded of happier times.
Or tomorrow she announces the final piece of the manifesto - that by the end of her next term, she will be honouring the pledge that people voted for in Brexit: the extra £350m a week to the NHS. What is Corbyn going to say? "But...but...but - it's uncosted!" May will say only she can deliver on this, as Corbyn will accept any old deal the EU offers him - he has already said so.
Honouring the £350m would turn this election round for the Tories like nothing else could.
The point with the £350m pledge was that it was the amount that country would save per week through leaving the EU.
It wasn't a figure May recognised or agreed with. And she was correct to reject it - whether you believe in leaving the EU or not, it simply wasn't accurate.
So, if May were to promise this, she either has to: (i) back down on her previous position (and demonstrably lie) by saying "don't worry, when we leave, the £350m will be there - no need to cost it"; or (ii) accept it was a lie but say it'll be raised in some other way - in which case, what has it got to do with the EU?
Either £18 billion per annum extra for the NHS is sensible or not, and either it's affordable or not. Doing it for no other reason than because someone else saw fit to paint it on the side of a bus is an Ed Stone level silly gimic.
No-one cares, as long as the £350m happens. And gimmick is code for: something unexpected and popular that I wish I'd thought of first.
Osborne delayed an EU payment by two years and claimed he'd halved the bill.
May has struggled to give a convincing answer on where her additional £8bn to fund the NHS is coming from. She waffles about a strong economy with the implication that economic growth will generate the additional taxes to pay for it. Instead she could try claiming the £8bn is a down payment on the £350m per week, with a vague promise of more to follow depending on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.
It might be complete bollox but it could have the same effect as the original £350m claim - her opponents would froth about it being a lie, but in doing so the narrative would move back onto benefits of Brexit, which is what this election is supposed to be all about.
This one Is REALLY obvious in hindsight but given her type 1 diabetes and the fact an election campaign is incredibly intense if you're a party leader why on earth go for such a long campaign ?
Someone said that the campaign length was specified in the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
In peace time you don't have to go on Newsnight just because you get a call.
But this is an election, and one the Tories themselves have specifically framed a Presidential battle of Corbyn v May. Yet Corbyn, for all his flaws and foot-in-mouth moments, is out there doing it wherever you look, whereas May... where the f*** is May???
Jesus, he HAS to, he's behind. She doesn't, she's ahead. It's not rocket science. I'm not voting May cos she won't do radio 4. Hmm mmmmmmmm.
Given we've had a poll with the lead at 3, even if we do not believe that, there's a good chance by Monday she won't be ahead in at least one poll. It's not like there's been any good news for the Tories, and Labour seem to go up whether they have a good day or a bad day.
Theresa isn't up to the job. It's abundantly clear.
She needs to go, whatever the result of the election.
How can you be a politician at any level and not be able to debate a point and put a view forward? It's about the only thing they are all meant to be good at.
The debates are a bunch of circuses with predominantly lefty shouters present, which the media like - they don't want calm discussion of the issues, they want blood, they think its good for ratings and their pockets.
Rather suggests their internal polling tells them she doesn't need to. Tweets two days ago saying the 15 point lead was in line with what they are saying on the ground. Could be bluster but this is being run like Blair 97. No debate cos no need, it's already won, avoid all risk and you can shed one or two percent safely.
That's possible, and if the result ends up being 10-15% lead, then it will have been an uninspiring campaign but will have been proven right. But is it a good idea to trust entirely on your personal polls telling you how great you are doing?
Someone needs to tell May to get on fucking Women's hour.
I seriously wonder whether she is ill or having a nervous breakdown.
You jest, surely, but I confess the thought crossed my mind today.
She called the fecking election, why wasn't she at the debate - she ill or something?
She very probably is ill.
* When she was answering questions about why she didn't go to the debate in Cambridge she looked as though she was cracking up.
* In Plymouth she seemed as if she wasn't "there". It was as if she was repeating lines about the general topic matter of the question - perhaps lines she'd mugged up for QT tomorrow - while dropping in the word "Plymouth" occasionally.
* Now she's dropped out of Woman's Hour.
I imagine she will drop out of QT too.
Remember she suffers from type 1 diabetes. Psychological stress can make the symptoms of that illness worse.
If what I think is happening is happening then she should prioritise her health, let everybody including her opponents wish her all the best, and somebody else (Philip Hammond) should take over as caretaker prime minister and as party leader.
Stress doesn't make Type 1 diabetes permanently worse, it just makes it harder for the person to control their blood sugar level (stress tends to push it up - true of all of us).
Re Women's Hour, the logic seems to be that the more people see of Corbyn, the more they like him. The reverse applies to May.
Harsh? Not sure.
Let's be honest here. The public like the edited version of himself that Corbyn has presented to the public.
I was watching him on the One Show (a show I never usually bother with) two days ago. He said something along the lines of being open to listening to people with different views, everyone knows something the other doesn't, etc. If I was someone not interested in politics listening to that, I'd be thinking 'wow, what a open minded guy, a breath of fresh air etc.' The irony was, of course, is that as demonstrated on here yestersday his supporters are the exact opposite of what he said he was.
Tomorrow night is the BBC1 QT which will be the single most important TV programme of the GE.
Maybe May is missing Womans Hour in order to prepare and / or rest for BBC1 QT?
Okay then. So the response is "I'm afraid I'm preparing for the Question Time debate that day. But happy to do a pre-record if you can get to me at my campaign event in Telford the day before - happily spare you half an hour."
And yet if they get a similar percentage to last time in Scotland, and get lucky with transfers, they could end up with more MPs in Scotland than the rest of the UK put together.
Lol its womans hour. It's not a set piece election debate. She doesn't want to waste her time on it. It's about time the media stopped assuming everyone will drop everything for every interview they want. This election is becoming very much about the media spinning a story. And suckers buying it.
In peace time you don't have to go on Newsnight just because you get a call.
But this is an election, and one the Tories themselves have specifically framed a Presidential battle of Corbyn v May. Yet Corbyn, for all his flaws and foot-in-mouth moments, is out there doing it wherever you look, whereas May... where the f*** is May???
Jesus, he HAS to, he's behind. She doesn't, she's ahead. It's not rocket science. I'm not voting May cos she won't do radio 4. Hmm mmmmmmmm.
Given we've had a poll with the lead at 3, even if we do not believe that, there's a good chance by Monday she won't be ahead in at least one poll. It's not like there's been any good news for the Tories, and Labour seem to go up whether they have a good day or a bad day.
Theresa isn't up to the job. It's abundantly clear.
She needs to go, whatever the result of the election.
How can you be a politician at any level and not be able to debate a point and put a view forward? It's about the only thing they are all meant to be good at.
The debates are a bunch of circuses with predominantly lefty shouters present, which the media like - they don't want calm discussion of the issues, they want blood, they think its good for ratings and their pockets.
Rather suggests their internal polling tells them she doesn't need to. Tweets two days ago saying the 15 point lead was in line with what they are saying on the ground. Could be bluster but this is being run like Blair 97. No debate cos no need, it's already won, avoid all risk and you can shed one or two percent safely.
That's possible, and if the result ends up being 10-15% lead, then it will have been an uninspiring campaign but will have been proven right. But is it a good idea to trust entirely on your personal polls telling you how great you are doing?
It's not like the polling we see though is it? They have decades of experience in canvassing and polling etc. Both parties know where they are right now and campaign accordingly
The only reason I can see why they are not putting her out there on that platform is that the polling data they have is good and she has everything to lose and nothing to gain this close to the election if she did.
IIRC Messina and Textor tweeted last night kind of rubbishing the YouGov poll, I would assume they have their own data which says something different.
Someone needs to tell May to get on fucking Women's hour.
I seriously wonder whether she is ill or having a nervous breakdown.
You jest, surely, but I confess the thought crossed my mind today.
She called the fecking election, why wasn't she at the debate - she ill or something?
She very probably is ill.
* When she was answering questions about why she didn't go to the debate in Cambridge she looked as though she was cracking up.
* In Plymouth she seemed as if she wasn't "there". It was as if she was repeating lines about the general topic matter of the question - perhaps lines she'd mugged up for QT tomorrow - while dropping in the word "Plymouth" occasionally.
* Now she's dropped out of Woman's Hour.
I imagine she will drop out of QT too.
Remember she suffers from type 1 diabetes. Psychological stress can make the symptoms of that illness worse.
If what I think is happening is happening then she should prioritise her health, let everybody including her opponents wish her all the best, and somebody else (Philip Hammond) should take over as caretaker prime minister and as party leader.
Thats a theory of course. But I found your comment civilised and informative.
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
UKIP came second in plenty of places in 2015, but now their votes will be up for grabs whether they are standing or not.
So what?
People reading Dan Hodges quote may well have assumed the 7k majority was over Labour
Might as well have been. Labour only 600 behind UKIP, UKIP on 12,000 votes, Tory majority 7,700. Dan Hodges can be forgiven for assuming that Labour are the challengers this time.
Given she has the Question Time set piece that evening, I expect she wants to concentrate on that.
The answer to her question is, "Because everyone expected a three figure majority, you specifically said you needed a big mandate to get a Brexit deal, and if you come up with something like what Cameron had, your authority is fatally undermined. Now we've built the campaign around you personally rather than the party, so sodding get out there."
Someone needs to tell May to get on fucking Women's hour.
I seriously wonder whether she is ill or having a nervous breakdown.
You jest, surely, but I confess the thought crossed my mind today.
She called the fecking election, why wasn't she at the debate - she ill or something?
She very probably is ill.
* When she was answering questions about why she didn't go to the debate in Cambridge she looked as though she was cracking up.
* In Plymouth she seemed as if she wasn't "there". It was as if she was repeating lines about the general topic matter of the question - perhaps lines she'd mugged up for QT tomorrow - while dropping in the word "Plymouth" occasionally.
* Now she's dropped out of Woman's Hour.
I imagine she will drop out of QT too.
Remember she suffers from type 1 diabetes. Psychological stress can make the symptoms of that illness worse.
If what I think is happening is happening then she should prioritise her health, let everybody including her opponents wish her all the best, and somebody else (Philip Hammond) should take over as caretaker prime minister and as party leader.
Stress doesn't make Type 1 diabetes permanently worse, it just makes it harder for the person to control their blood sugar level (stress tends to push it up - true of all of us).
It's not like the polling we see though is it? They have decades of experience in canvassing and polling etc. Both parties know where they are right now and campaign accordingly
I don't know, but I'm sure there's been cases where party's private polling is said afterward to be wrong (SNP polling saying they'd win IndyRef perhaps? I don't recall). Seems like a non-voter surge, if that is happening, or young people actually turning out despite being out of character for many elections now, would be hard to be picked up. If they were so great, no one would be surprised at results.
And yet if they get a similar percentage to last time in Scotland, and get lucky with transfers, they could end up with more MPs in Scotland than the rest of the UK put together.
Of course it can't be assumed non-voters won't vote this time. Just looking at the Orkney figures comparing 2010 and 2015 while 2500 of the 6500 increase in the SNP vote was at the expense of the Lib Dems , the other parties changed little. The majority of the increase about 4000 was from previous non-voters. The question this election is whether Corbyn will mobilise non-voters in the way Brexit did.
This makes the classic mistake of assuming no churn, so if somebody gets 10,000 votes five years apart, they are the same 10,000 people. They might be, or they might be COMPLETELY different, or somewhere in between.
In the Orkney case, it's perhaps more likely that the SNP took from all other parties (particularly LDs as they had a bad election, but others too) but that turnout was up for ALL parties which fully compensated the loss of votes to the SNP for for all parties except the LDs. Indeed, it's possible (albeit unlikely) that NONE of the previous non-voters went to the SNP, that they all went to other parties, but that the other parties lost previous voters to the SNP in large numbers. You simply cannot tell whether your story or one of mine is correct from the numbers on the page.
Shhh, that destroys the SNP to Con switcher narrative that was written about the Holyrood and Council elections.
The strong smell of urine about this forum earlier to day passed for a while and people talked about more sensible things, as we move into the evening it seems to be returning ? Perhaps we should put it down to a glass or two of after work vino ?
Given she has the Question Time set piece that evening, I expect she wants to concentrate on that.
The answer to her question is, "Because everyone expected a three figure majority, you specifically said you needed a big mandate to get a Brexit deal, and if you come up with something like what Cameron had, your authority is fatally undermined. Now we've built the campaign around you personally rather than the party, so sodding get out there."
I didn't say that I agreed with her logic!
If she is ill at present, she should say so. Quite apart from anything else, for base political reasons it would generate some sympathy for her.
Some are betting on behaviour being close to what people say they will do this time, clearly. I think that will not be the case (I believe young people will vote more than last time, but not as hugely as the closer polls rely on), but I can understand the reasoning.
UKIP came second in plenty of places in 2015, but now their votes will be up for grabs whether they are standing or not.
So what?
People reading Dan Hodges quote may well have assumed the 7k majority was over Labour
Might as well have been. Labour only 600 behind UKIP, UKIP on 12,000 votes, Tory majority 7,700. Dan Hodges can be forgiven for assuming that Labour are the challengers this time.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Comments
If she does have a nervous condition I have to wonder why she ran for the leadership, knowing what it entails. I suffer from generalised anxiety, and I try to avoid very high-stress situations because of my condition.
Why is Nick Timothy such a f-ing spanner?
It always makes my flesh creep when people pop up actively joyous that their political opponents are disenfranchised.
Osborne delayed an EU payment by two years and claimed he'd halved the bill.
She called the fecking election, why wasn't she at the debate - she ill or something?
Theresa May has reportedly turned down an invitation to appear on BBC Radio 4’s Woman’s Hour tomorrow morning, and is sending education secretary Justine Greening instead.
And Tory 'standing with Theresa May' and a warning that a shock Corbyn win is more possible than you think, which is less funny than it was 4 weeks ago.
Is she ill?
I mean I have seen her in a pretty dominant frame of mind at Question Time and when doing other interviews as Home Secretary. Whilst I never took to her I, never for a minute considered her as utterly incapable as you would have to be to make Corbyn look good.
So I have to ask if she is so unwell that they are keeping her away from any situation where it might become apparent.
This was just a random thought, has absolutely no evidence to support it and is almost certainly bollocks. But I thought I would ask opinions never the less.
Lab +9%
Con +9%
PC -4%
LD -2%
UKIP -9%
Greens & Others -3%
Wales percentages, GE2015:
Lab 36.88%
Con 27.22%
UKIP 13.64%
PC 12.13%
LD 6.53%
Greens 2.56%
Others 1.04%
http://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/2017/06/01/watch-snp-candidate-miriam-brett-believes-pace-political-change-boosts-chances?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The theoretical economic case for LVT is an interesting one, but the transition from existing arrangements would be extraordinarily disruptive for some people.
That property is necessarily a long term investment, and that this would be upending the rules more or less overnight is not a good thing.
Oh Dave, come back, all is forgiven.
I clearly need to start listening to R4 again...
She needs to go, whatever the result of the election.
How can you be a politician at any level and not be able to debate a point and put a view forward? It's about the only thing they are all meant to be good at.
The days of 150+ majority dreams are over, there's no way the Tories are sweeping Wales, or places in the North they have never won before. 50-70 at best. 10-30 at worst.
TMay is probably even more freaked out about doing it because the demographic which tunes into Women's Hour are older women, who tend to vote Tory. She doesn't want to risk upsetting them even more.
I agree that May doesn't like campaigning at all. Why she called an GE then, is beyond me. She probably thought that the Tory lead was so high she could get away with limited campaigning. Perhaps, if the manifesto hadn't been such a disaster that *could* have worked. But ceding the airwaves to Corbyn was a dreadful mistake. The Tory Manifesto needed some positives in it to allow the Conservatives to have some control of the narrative, and get some kind of hearing on the airwaves.
The Right Wing Press don't think they owe TMay anything. Dacre and co. feel they are the ones in control and dictate the terms.
But this is an election, and one the Tories themselves have specifically framed a Presidential battle of Corbyn v May. Yet Corbyn, for all his flaws and foot-in-mouth moments, is out there doing it wherever you look, whereas May... where the f*** is May???
Radio is not a good way to get your message out, especially when you have a slight stutter.
People were saying she looked like she had a bit of botox for the ITV Q&A... maybe steroids.
To me she seems like a nice, old fashioned woman not really cut out for the showbiz of a GE. Also it is always way more nervewracking to be big fav. Corbo had nothing to lose
Is she having a breakdown? @LOS_Fisher: Theresa May's "people can have faith in me because I have faith in them" line... makes no sense...?
I'm not voting May cos she won't do radio 4. Hmm mmmmmmmm.
Wish Corbyn+Sturgeon luck and then try again with Javid, Rudd or Ruth in 2022.
Trouble is, the mentality of seeing the election as one horrific trip to the dentist is sub-optimal to say the least. It will probably still work out for her, but her head isn't in the game.
https://twitter.com/scotlibdems/status/870317228918546433
Corbyn/McMao/Abbott = crazy
WTH? Who will save us from this absolute nightmare scenario?
The Tories need to (and in any case will) get rid of TMay. I thought she was the best of a bad bunch a year ago, and she still is. But they need to unearth someone who isn't anyone who ran in the leadership contest a year ago.
They will probably go for Rudd.
TMay is Gordon Brown on steroids. Unbelievable.
People reading Dan Hodges quote may well have assumed the 7k majority was over Labour
Just saying.
There's a difference between Talkers and Doers.
Some people can talk very well, but their actions are then less useful.
Others don't converse that well, but get on with the job.
Rarely have I seen someone with both abilities. TMay seems to fall in the 2nd category. But then that's what we need for Brexit.
* When she was answering questions about why she didn't go to the debate in Cambridge she looked as though she was cracking up.
* In Plymouth she seemed as if she wasn't "there". It was as if she was repeating lines about the general topic matter of the question - perhaps lines she'd mugged up for QT tomorrow - while dropping in the word "Plymouth" occasionally.
* Now she's dropped out of Woman's Hour.
I imagine she will drop out of QT too.
Remember she suffers from type 1 diabetes. Psychological stress can make the symptoms of that illness worse.
If what I think is happening is happening then she should prioritise her health, let everybody including her opponents wish her all the best, and somebody else (Philip Hammond?) should take over as caretaker prime minister and as party leader.
Harsh? Not sure.
We are talking about a Prime Minister here.
It might be complete bollox but it could have the same effect as the original £350m claim - her opponents would froth about it being a lie, but in doing so the narrative would move back onto benefits of Brexit, which is what this election is supposed to be all about.
Maybe May is missing Womans Hour in order to prepare and / or rest for BBC1 QT?
Given she has the Question Time set piece that evening, I expect she wants to concentrate on that.
Unless she is ill with something unrelated.
I was watching him on the One Show (a show I never usually bother with) two days ago. He said something along the lines of being open to listening to people with different views, everyone knows something the other doesn't, etc. If I was someone not interested in politics listening to that, I'd be thinking 'wow, what a open minded guy, a breath of fresh air etc.' The irony was, of course, is that as demonstrated on here yestersday his supporters are the exact opposite of what he said he was.
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/870309827171495938
IIRC Messina and Textor tweeted last night kind of rubbishing the YouGov poll, I would assume they have their own data which says something different.
But I found your comment civilised and informative.
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/870308640993021953
Labour only 600 behind UKIP, UKIP on 12,000 votes, Tory majority 7,700. Dan Hodges can be forgiven for assuming that Labour are the challengers this time.
Blair's time in office was a huge missed opportunity.
If she is ill at present, she should say so. Quite apart from anything else, for base political reasons it would generate some sympathy for her.
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390070-unionist-parties-working-against-snp-in-key-seats/
When May doesn't get the result she wants, all she has to do is go back to the country and ask them again.