Talked to our youth players last night, most of whom are in Uni.
They are ALL voting Corbyn. There has been an organised campaign in Unis to get first-time voters signed-up and out voting.
They think Tories are evil and Corbyn will make lives better for everybody.
These boys take a lot of drugs but they are all intelligent. Just goes to show how left-liberal Unis are these days: get them high, sell them the utopia and never, ever mention the comedown.
Sounds like Haight Ashbury in the 60s.
I'd have loved to have been in Haight Ashbury in the '60s.
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics in conjunction with YouGov's Data Science team, headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its Crunch analytic database. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations. YouGov will be updating the model estimates on a daily basis." https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
I know they try to explain their reasoning behind the 75 person per constituency sample size but thats a brave model.
75 sample on a population of 72,000 (average consituency size) gives a margin of error of about 11%.
Couldn't she be there to support security message, and also get on local news across the area, there are a lot of libdem marginals to defend.
But if she's worried about losing seats to the Lib Dems or Labour, she's losing ground. A couple of weeks ago, we were talking about whether her majority would be nearer 100 or 200. Today, she's in an area where there are almost no gains to be made, and her manifesto relaunch was in Twickenham, where again there is a sitting Tory MP.
Lord Ashcroft has the projection for a whopping majority still.
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics in conjunction with YouGov's Data Science team, headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its Crunch analytic database. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations. YouGov will be updating the model estimates on a daily basis." https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
I know they try to explain their reasoning behind the 75 person per constituency sample size but thats a brave model.
75 sample on a population of 72,000 (average consituency size) gives a margin of error of about 11%.
Maybe it really is austerity. I deserted the Tories mid coalition when it was obvious it was all an exercise in transferring public wealth to the rich. I've been approaching 2017 on the basis I'm terrified of Corbyn. That's really on his past views and on Brexit getting messed up and Labour's weakness as I perceive it on defence, anti terror and immigration. Weak Britain being a fear. Plus I don't think he can command the confidence of the PLP. I'm voting Green as a protest as I did in 2015, but was much less concerned about a May victory, in fact I quite like her. Wanted to see Brexit delivered then see how the land lies and what the vision for UK indy should be next time. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm thinking that now. Maybe it really is time to burn austerity down and invest. Austerity has failed and has transferred wealth to the rich. It sucks and there is no end in sight. I detest Corbyn but I'm sick of austerity. I'm tired of the disabled getting clobbered, I'm pissed off that the rich haven't suffered for 2008, that the banks whom I worked for and know how reckless they were have not paid. I'm saying there's an anger under my reasoned thoughts on the two leaders. The anger sometimes boils over despite the ludicrous labour leadership not because of it. Interesting and concerning times.
Why do you think there has been austerity? Last year Government spending was £761.9 billion. Is that what you consider Austerity? How do you think more Governemnt spending will make the poor richer?
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics in conjunction with YouGov's Data Science team, headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its Crunch analytic database. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations. YouGov will be updating the model estimates on a daily basis." https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo implies that they have an analytic likelihood function because they must take derivatives with respect to the likelihood parameters (cf Hamiltonian mechanics).
Unless they state somewhere what the analytic likelihood function is, and how they arrived it, then I would be highly sceptical of the results.
In fact, YouGov should tell us what the likelihood function is.
The model builder (a Dr Lauderdale of LSE) does not appear to be a statistician.
Stan is a powerful open source package developed for big data. It is widely used, but it wasn't made by YouGov. Anyone can use it.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Good lord.
Yougov probably has a 2-3% MoE error in it, in the Tories favour.
*Assuming* the facts as of today hold for the next 8 days, I expect a margin of victory for the Tories of about 6-8%, which should deliver a majority of 20-40 in a purer 2 party fight.
Well quite. Plus the whole methodology is based on people not lying, or worse still strategically gaming the system, when they complete their application and polls, either about their voting intentions (to send a cost free message to whichever party) or their previous voting record and demographic details (to bias the sample and hence the result)
I don't know about YouGov but for commercial survey and panel sites that pay out in general gaming them is the norm. People lie about who they are and so on, in order to get more surveys to get more money, or goodies.
Todays Telegraph has news to steady some of the nerves on here this morning:
"Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov."
That will be much closer to it. The Tories are going to win big time among pensioners and among all voters in the Midlands. That will deliver them a very comfortable majority.
Plymouth of course has one of the higher young'un percentages. If what the polls are saying is true then the relatively few Con marginals with decent youth votes are going to be a risk.
Plymouth of course has one of the higher young'un percentages. If what the polls are saying is true then the relatively few Con marginals with decent youth votes are going to be a risk.
Nevertheless it's a fair point - the big shift this time has been the decline of class and the growth of age as a driver of voting behaviour.
Hence the betting opportunities are for Labour in middle class marginal areas with lots of young people and for the Tories in working class marginal areas with lots of older people.
Yes I was thinking that. The seats which are trending labour socially with middle aged parents in public sector jobs, with university aged children voting in home constituency. That would be the opposite side of my point about most university constituencies losing most of the student vote due to the timing of the election.
Labour might well crush 2022, even with Corbyn. Remember it gets harder and harder for the government at each successive election. And post Brexit it will be very hard indeed.
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Yesterday the tories were 12% clear with ICM
Indeed and I'm not saying yougov are right but....... polling is based on the usual caveats applying. If anti politics Britain is turning out then usual caveats do not. For example, it's so crazy you might get Tories gain Birmingham Erdington but are only hanging on in Pudsey etc
I dont understand why people think this election is any different to previous ones. If Labour were 12% ahead in some polls and 6% ahead in others would the discussion be about a potential tory victory?
Because we enjoy wetting the bed
How is Eastleigh looking ?
Reports on the Vote2012 from the constituency are that the Conservatives are putting a lot more effort into Eastleigh than is warranted by their majority last time . Even to the extent of diverting some resources from Southampton marginals . It is not a sign that Conservatives are heading for a massive majority .
The Yougov forecast seems to be headline grabbing to me or worse, news manipulation. It sounds like a clever methodology but it amounts to a series of assumptions being used to manipulate data. It's classic scenario testing and, by their own admission, a slightly different set of assumptions would produce a different result. Given Stephen Shakespeare's connections with the Conservative Party, I wonder if what we're actually seeing is a Tory attempt to put the fear of God into their base.
Maybe it really is austerity. I deserted the Tories mid coalition when it was obvious it was all an exercise in transferring public wealth to the rich. I've been approaching 2017 on the basis I'm terrified of Corbyn. That's really on his past views and on Brexit getting messed up and Labour's weakness as I perceive it on defence, anti terror and immigration. Weak Britain being a fear. Plus I don't think he can command the confidence of the PLP. I'm voting Green as a protest as I did in 2015, but was much less concerned about a May victory, in fact I quite like her. Wanted to see Brexit delivered then see how the land lies and what the vision for UK indy should be next time. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm thinking that now. Maybe it really is time to burn austerity down and invest. Austerity has failed and has transferred wealth to the rich. It sucks and there is no end in sight. I detest Corbyn but I'm sick of austerity. I'm tired of the disabled getting clobbered, I'm pissed off that the rich haven't suffered for 2008, that the banks whom I worked for and know how reckless they were have not paid. I'm saying there's an anger under my reasoned thoughts on the two leaders. The anger sometimes boils over despite the ludicrous labour leadership not because of it. Interesting and concerning times.
Why do you think there has been austerity? Last year Government spending was £761.9 billion. Is that what you consider Austerity? How do you think more Governemnt spending will make the poor richer?
Magic money is a powerful aphrodisiac. Economically does it even matter? We are all screwed when the dollar bails out as reserve currency for the world anyway. Winter is coming, enjoy the autumn with a free puppy. Maybe. I'm completely disillusioned by it all. What does a Tory Government get me? That's the bottom line for a huge number of people. Me included as it stands.
Couldn't she be there to support security message, and also get on local news across the area, there are a lot of libdem marginals to defend.
But if she's worried about losing seats to the Lib Dems or Labour, she's losing ground. A couple of weeks ago, we were talking about whether her majority would be nearer 100 or 200. Today, she's in an area where there are almost no gains to be made, and her manifesto relaunch was in Twickenham, where again there is a sitting Tory MP.
Lord Ashcroft has the projection for a whopping majority still.
And there may be. The places May has chosen to visit lately, however, are different to those at the start of the campaign as they look defensive.
It isn't a perfect indicator, but things like Cameron going to Yeovil late in the 2015 campaign were, with hindsight, an indicator to sell Lib Dem very, very heavily.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Good lord.
Yougov probably has a 2-3% MoE error in it, in the Tories favour.
*Assuming* the facts as of today hold for the next 8 days, I expect a margin of victory for the Tories of about 6-8%, which should deliver a majority of 20-40 in a purer 2 party fight.
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics in conjunction with YouGov's Data Science team, headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its Crunch analytic database. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations. YouGov will be updating the model estimates on a daily basis." https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
I know they try to explain their reasoning behind the 75 person per constituency sample size but thats a brave model.
75 sample on a population of 72,000 (average consituency size) gives a margin of error of about 11%.
Mr. Royale, Mr. Eagles will happily explain to the Conservatives how the Romans dealt with an overrated man who became consumed by arrogance, and hubris, and alienated his own side.
I could see GE2022 being a landslide defeat for the Tories, if Labour get the right leader.
Agree. But let's avoid Jezza now and get through Brexit.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Good lord.
Yougov probably has a 2-3% MoE error in it, in the Tories favour.
*Assuming* the facts as of today hold for the next 8 days, I expect a margin of victory for the Tories of about 6-8%, which should deliver a majority of 20-40 in a purer 2 party fight.
The thinking before GE 2015 was that with the unfair constituency boundaries, the Tories needed a lead of about 10% to get a majority of MPs. Even the exit poll predicted a hung parliament, it was only the very efficient vote distribution of the voter coalition that Cameron built that converted such a low % vote lead into a majority. I don't think its straight forward to say that even a 6% lead now would turn into a Tory majority.
Note, under this scenario, both Plymouth seats are lost *but* NE Derbyshire and Wolverhampton SW are gained.
Given that matches May's movements recently, and some of the intell BJO has given us, I'm beginning to suspect that's what CCHQ are starting to suspect as well.
Maybe it really is austerity. I deserted the Tories mid coalition when it was obvious it was all an exercise in transferring public wealth to the rich. I've been approaching 2017 on the basis I'm terrified of Corbyn. That's really on his past views and on Brexit getting messed up and Labour's weakness as I perceive it on defence, anti terror and immigration. Weak Britain being a fear. Plus I don't think he can command the confidence of the PLP. I'm voting Green as a protest as I did in 2015, but was much less concerned about a May victory, in fact I quite like her. Wanted to see Brexit delivered then see how the land lies and what the vision for UK indy should be next time. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm thinking that now. Maybe it really is time to burn austerity down and invest. Austerity has failed and has transferred wealth to the rich. It sucks and there is no end in sight. I detest Corbyn but I'm sick of austerity. I'm tired of the disabled getting clobbered, I'm pissed off that the rich haven't suffered for 2008, that the banks whom I worked for and know how reckless they were have not paid. I'm saying there's an anger under my reasoned thoughts on the two leaders. The anger sometimes boils over despite the ludicrous labour leadership not because of it. Interesting and concerning times.
Why do you think there has been austerity? Last year Government spending was £761.9 billion. Is that what you consider Austerity? How do you think more Governemnt spending will make the poor richer?
Magic money is a powerful aphrodisiac. Economically does it even matter? We are all screwed when the dollar bails out as reserve currency for the world anyway. Winter is coming, enjoy the autumn with a free puppy. Maybe. I'm completely disillusioned by it all. What does a Tory Government get me? That's the bottom line for a huge number of people. Me included as it stands.
What is the current employment rate in this Country? It is at a record level, thats what a Tory Government gets you. I work in the electrical contracing industry and electricians in the Hampshire area are now getting £200 per day. In 2009 they were getting £115.
Labour might well crush 2022, even with Corbyn. Remember it gets harder and harder for the government at each successive election. And post Brexit it will be very hard indeed.
Not with Corbyn, I think. The fact that Corbyn cannot possibly hope to run a Government with the MPs he has does not go away. Corbynistas either need to find a clean-skinned replacement, or there will need to be a coup or a split.
Hell, the EU might even put some of Dave's deal back on the table.
What's in it for them?
They'd have made their point, and won. For good.
(for clarity, I still want to fully Leave, I am merely stating how the politics might go)
Not everyone takes the view that if the other party asks to renegotiate after walking out, make them pay the price of eating boot. And EU27 isn't a single party. There's Emmanuel Macron, for instance. Things could go further than a Dave's deal, and the eventual rearrangement might not only concern Britain's relations with EU27. Chopping EU-land into two portions for people-movement purposes would seem likely. That might win back the political elites in France, Germany, the Netherlands and elsewhere some of the respect they have lost - at least until the next Lehmans.
Mr. Royale, Mr. Eagles will happily explain to the Conservatives how the Romans dealt with an overrated man who became consumed by arrogance, and hubris, and alienated his own side.
FWIW, this smacks of GE1992 to me.
May is acting more like Thatcher in 1988, but then the poll-tax was canned late doors - as the dementia tax has largely been now - and although Labour looked on course for a win, didn't.
Sheer terror of Corbyn should clinch this for May, but it will be somewhat reluctantly and her reputation will be shot to pieces in the process and she'll be gravely weakened.
Maybe it really is austerity. I deserted the Tories mid coalition when it was obvious it was all an exercise in transferring public wealth to the rich. I've been approaching 2017 on the basis I'm terrified of Corbyn. That's really on his past views and on Brexit getting messed up and Labour's weakness as I perceive it on defence, anti terror and immigration. Weak Britain being a fear. Plus I don't think he can command the confidence of the PLP. I'm voting Green as a protest as I did in 2015, but was much less concerned about a May victory, in fact I quite like her. Wanted to see Brexit delivered then see how the land lies and what the vision for UK indy should be next time. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm thinking that now. Maybe it really is time to burn austerity down and invest. Austerity has failed and has transferred wealth to the rich. It sucks and there is no end in sight. I detest Corbyn but I'm sick of austerity. I'm tired of the disabled getting clobbered, I'm pissed off that the rich haven't suffered for 2008, that the banks whom I worked for and know how reckless they were have not paid. I'm saying there's an anger under my reasoned thoughts on the two leaders. The anger sometimes boils over despite the ludicrous labour leadership not because of it. Interesting and concerning times.
Why do you think there has been austerity? Last year Government spending was £761.9 billion. Is that what you consider Austerity? How do you think more Governemnt spending will make the poor richer?
Magic money is a powerful aphrodisiac. Economically does it even matter? We are all screwed when the dollar bails out as reserve currency for the world anyway. Winter is coming, enjoy the autumn with a free puppy. Maybe. I'm completely disillusioned by it all. What does a Tory Government get me? That's the bottom line for a huge number of people. Me included as it stands.
What is the current employment rate in this Country? It is at a record level, thats what a Tory Government gets you. I work in the electrical contracing industry and electricians in the Hampshire area are now getting £200 per day. In 2009 they were getting £115.
Shrugs really. I'm so disillusioned by what's in offer I don't think I really care what happens. I'm done with it. Perhaps a national coalition for a consensus Brexit is what we truly need.
The Yougov forecast seems to be headline grabbing to me or worse, news manipulation. It sounds like a clever methodology but it amounts to a series of assumptions being used to manipulate data. It's classic scenario testing and, by their own admission, a slightly different set of assumptions would produce a different result. Given Stephen Shakespeare's connections with the Conservative Party, I wonder if what we're actually seeing is a Tory attempt to put the fear of God into their base.
All opinion polls are a series of assumptions . ICM take their raw data make assumptions and give a 12% lead . If you take the same data and use Survation's assumptions you get a 6% lead .
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Good lord.
Yougov probably has a 2-3% MoE error in it, in the Tories favour.
*Assuming* the facts as of today hold for the next 8 days, I expect a margin of victory for the Tories of about 6-8%, which should deliver a majority of 20-40 in a purer 2 party fight.
The thinking before GE 2015 was that with the unfair constituency boundaries, the Tories needed a lead of about 10% to get a majority of MPs. Even the exit poll predicted a hung parliament, it was only the very efficient vote distribution of the voter coalition that Cameron built that converted such a low % vote lead into a majority. I don't think its straight forward to say that even a 6% lead now would turn into a Tory majority.
May and Brexit are going to be much less appealing to the 2010 Lib Dems who voted for Cameron in 2015 which will reduce the efficiency of the Tory vote.
Should they lose the majority it will be as a result of abject leadership, Europe and hubris. Interesting to watch history repeat itself as the loons on the right repeat their mistakes.
Unfortunately it's rather more serious having Corbyn as beneficiary rather than Blair.
Looking at that YouGov projection (Con 310, Lab 257, SNP 50, NI 18, LD 10, PC 3, Green 1 plus the Speaker), unless Sturgeon does a deal with May (and sticks to it with May's replacement), which is unlikely, I think there would have to be an NI angle.
Not that I think for a moment YouGov has this right but IF the numbers crunch out like this my thoughts are as follows (assuming no change in Ulster):
CON+DUP+UUP = 320 LAB+SNP+PC+SDLP+GREEN = 315
The LDs have 10, SF 4 not forgetting the Speaker.
Assuming SF continue to boycott Westminster, that puts Tim Farron holding the balance of power (see my earlier) which I imagine is the last place he wants to be.
My personal view is YouGov is wrong and the Conservatives will win a reasonable majority though I think visions of a landslide may be fading and that in itself may be no bad thing for the Prime Minister as it will impose collective discipline and, more important, it will leave Corbyn in situ.
Well quite. Plus the whole methodology is based on people not lying, or worse still strategically gaming the system, when they complete their application and polls, either about their voting intentions (to send a cost free message to whichever party) or their previous voting record and demographic details (to bias the sample and hence the result)
I don't know about YouGov but for commercial survey and panel sites that pay out in general gaming them is the norm. People lie about who they are and so on, in order to get more surveys to get more money, or goodies.
Correct. We lie by default on the internet: yes I am happy with cookies, yes I have read the t& cs, yes you are a friend of mine, yes I like your post.
When I were a lad you could only dial direct to local numbers, otherwise you had to make a - gasp - trunk call through the operator. So being rung up from London by a posh-sounding bloke at a polling co was a big thing, and you stood to attention and told him the truth. Telling the truth is simply not default behaviour these days, and polling is going to struggle until we have a working Voight-Kampff machine.
We hear a lot about Shy Tories and still factoring that in, but:
1 - the polls showing a 25 point lead and 49-50% prepared to say they were voting Tory a few weeks ago suggested no shyness then. Is this factor now dead in the water? If so, then that spells trouble if the current 42-43 figure is the upper limit. Have the Tories really done anything in the past 3 weeks to start people being shy again? Must admit that the sheer bombardment of anti Tory bile and pro Corbyn fluff on my social media feeds is making me very wary about telling anyone I know of my intentions*, but would it trouble me telling a pollster? Hm.
2 - what about Shy Labour? Surely with a hopeless hapless leader voters a month or two ago were reluctant to admit to being Labour voters. With a strong, effective and competent (until Women's Hour) campaign by Corbyn and the momentum now being firmly towards Labour, and with "nice" freebies for all that nobody can reasonably object to (they might think) in the manifesto, why would anyone be shy about Labour now. Hence the surge - but it may mean 36-38% of voters were always minded to vote Labour. Indeed, they have realised that Corbyn is just the sort of leader they wanted when saddled with bacon sarnie mangler EdM whom they detested?
I am feeling really queasy about this, particularly with the YouGov model panel now reporting more bad news (presumably) every day now till polling day. Feels far too close, there are too many 2015 won seats that the Tories held by a whisker when helped by EdM and the SNP threat (the Tories are barely playing that angle this time), and when is the Tory fightback actually going to start??
[*Actually, no longer about "my intentions". We have a postal ballot this time and I have just popped mine in the postbox. Voted Tory, of course. First time not been able to vote in person - felt very unusual popping it in a postbox and the less than 100% certainty that my vote will actually make it to the counting hall...!]
Todays Telegraph has news to steady some of the nerves on here this morning:
"Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov."
That will be much closer to it. The Tories are going to win big time among pensioners and among all voters in the Midlands. That will deliver them a very comfortable majority.
The point about pensioners is that many will already have experienced the penalties of social care with the sale of their homes and asset confiscation to £23,250. If they have not they will be aware of the present system by discussion with fellow pensioners. To many pensioners Theresa May's proposals are a big improvement with the £100,000 guarantee. I explained it to my children yesterday and they fully support the change and even better if there is a cap
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Yesterday the tories were 12% clear with ICM
Indeed and I'm not saying yougov are right but....... polling is based on the usual caveats applying. If anti politics Britain is turning out then usual caveats do not. For example, it's so crazy you might get Tories gain Birmingham Erdington but are only hanging on in Pudsey etc
I dont understand why people think this election is any different to previous ones. If Labour were 12% ahead in some polls and 6% ahead in others would the discussion be about a potential tory victory?
Because we enjoy wetting the bed
How is Eastleigh looking ?
Reports on the Vote2012 from the constituency are that the Conservatives are putting a lot more effort into Eastleigh than is warranted by their majority last time . Even to the extent of diverting some resources from Southampton marginals . It is not a sign that Conservatives are heading for a massive majority .
I think Kingston will be the bellweather for the LDs..can they gain traction there or not. As mentioned before no sign of the LDs campaigning hard in Sutton and Cheam but a lot of effort going into C&W which i guarantee will be close.
... I've been approaching 2017 on the basis I'm terrified of Corbyn.
Of course, if Corbyn makes it to PM then he becomes worth challenging from within Labour. Who really wants to be LOTO of a fractured party? Being PM, on the other hand, is a prize worth trying for.
To digress for a moment from polling and possible outcomes, it seems to be generally agreed that so far Labour are having a good campaign and the Tories a shite one. Since the evidence for practical competence from Corbyn Labour has previously been scanty, any ideas why this might be the case? Is it just the activist outlook coming into its own?
Corbyn and his team proved twice in the leadership elections that they're good at campaigning. The membership is different from the electorate, but not THAT different, and he approached it in the same way - lots and lots of regional events fired by social media buzz. That feeds into the general message of hope. By contrast, Theresa is running a Civil Service sort of campaign, everything carefully martialled and controlled. Even the Tories think it's boring.
Another factor is, curiously, the indiscipline of the new members. Yes, they've all been told to go and work in threatened Labour seats. But in marginal Tory seats, many have said fuck off, boring party machine, we're gonna win this one right here. The professional Tory campaigners have gone to the Labour marginals, just like the full-time Labour organisers, largely leaving the field in Tory marginals to the rebel army. The impact of volunteers is of course limited. But what it does do is hoover up the anti-Tory vote, and where there's a significant Lab-Lib-Green-UKIP split, the flood of local Labour campaigners is focusing them.
What is the current employment rate in this Country? It is at a record level, thats what a Tory Government gets you. I work in the electrical contracing industry and electricians in the Hampshire area are now getting £200 per day. In 2009 they were getting £115.
Which is fine as long as individuals and firms are happy to pay £200 per day. The question then becomes if someone comes along offering the same work for £180 per day or less. The 2009 figure was of course at the depth of the recession - what was the figure in 2006 as comparison ?
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Good lord.
Yougov probably has a 2-3% MoE error in it, in the Tories favour.
*Assuming* the facts as of today hold for the next 8 days, I expect a margin of victory for the Tories of about 6-8%, which should deliver a majority of 20-40 in a purer 2 party fight.
The thinking before GE 2015 was that with the unfair constituency boundaries, the Tories needed a lead of about 10% to get a majority of MPs. Even the exit poll predicted a hung parliament, it was only the very efficient vote distribution of the voter coalition that Cameron built that converted such a low % vote lead into a majority. I don't think its straight forward to say that even a 6% lead now would turn into a Tory majority.
May and Brexit are going to be much less appealing to the 2010 Lib Dems who voted for Cameron in 2015 which will reduce the efficiency of the Tory vote.
Should they lose the majority it will be as a result of abject leadership, Europe and hubris. Interesting to watch history repeat itself as the loons on the right repeat their mistakes.
Unfortunately it's rather more serious having Corbyn as beneficiary rather than Blair.
You are neglecting those 4 million Kippers who are almost entirely going to go May because BrExit is the most important thing in their world. Quite a few of them are Old Labour types who a) despise Corbyn and b) want to leave the EU, and stop free movement, and May is the only leader offering that.
Couldn't she be there to support security message, and also get on local news across the area, there are a lot of libdem marginals to defend.
But if she's worried about losing seats to the Lib Dems or Labour, she's losing ground. A couple of weeks ago, we were talking about whether her majority would be nearer 100 or 200. Today, she's in an area where there are almost no gains to be made, and her manifesto relaunch was in Twickenham, where again there is a sitting Tory MP.
Lord Ashcroft has the projection for a whopping majority still.
And there may be. The places May has chosen to visit lately, however, are different to those at the start of the campaign as they look defensive.
It isn't a perfect indicator, but things like Cameron going to Yeovil late in the 2015 campaign were, with hindsight, an indicator to sell Lib Dem very, very heavily.
I had a scroll through some Ashcroft projections. Reassuring in a sense but some look so obviously barmy as to cast doubt on the whole thing - he reckons the Tories will finish second behind Labour in Burnley (where I was brought up) with 33% of the vote. Absolute madness - would be astonished if they even clawed past the LDs back into second. The seat is a clear two horse race between Labour and the LDs and I think a comfortable Labour hold.
Todays Telegraph has news to steady some of the nerves on here this morning:
"Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov."
That will be much closer to it. The Tories are going to win big time among pensioners and among all voters in the Midlands. That will deliver them a very comfortable majority.
The point about pensioners is that many will already have experienced the penalties of social care with the sale of their homes and asset confiscation to £23,250. If they have not they will be aware of the present system by discussion with fellow pensioners. To many pensioners Theresa May's proposals are a big improvement with the £100,000 guarantee. I explained it to my children yesterday and they fully support the change and even better if there is a cap
I agree, I wonder how much of this type of conversation has been going on under the radar. When it was announced I supported it. I feel it adresses the thorny problem of end of life care in an equitable manner - the rich will pay more than the poor if they use the 'service' but offset the payment until the estate is settled.
Mr. Royale, Mr. Eagles will happily explain to the Conservatives how the Romans dealt with an overrated man who became consumed by arrogance, and hubris, and alienated his own side.
I could see GE2022 being a landslide defeat for the Tories, if Labour get the right leader.
Agree. But let's avoid Jezza now and get through Brexit.
Well quite. Plus the whole methodology is based on people not lying, or worse still strategically gaming the system, when they complete their application and polls, either about their voting intentions (to send a cost free message to whichever party) or their previous voting record and demographic details (to bias the sample and hence the result)
I don't know about YouGov but for commercial survey and panel sites that pay out in general gaming them is the norm. People lie about who they are and so on, in order to get more surveys to get more money, or goodies.
Correct. We lie by default on the internet: yes I am happy with cookies, yes I have read the t& cs, yes you are a friend of mine, yes I like your post.
When I were a lad you could only dial direct to local numbers, otherwise you had to make a - gasp - trunk call through the operator. So being rung up from London by a posh-sounding bloke at a polling co was a big thing, and you stood to attention and told him the truth. Telling the truth is simply not default behaviour these days, and polling is going to struggle until we have a working Voight-Kampff machine.
STD meant subscriber trunk dialling, not something else.
The various gaffes of this campaign have resulted in the odds being, well, very odd.
For instance, you can get 1.17 at two bookmakers on May being PM on 9 June.
Couldn't she be there to support security message, and also get on local news across the area, there are a lot of libdem marginals to defend.
But if she's worried about losing seats to the Lib Dems or Labour, she's losing ground. A couple of weeks ago, we were talking about whether her majority would be nearer 100 or 200. Today, she's in an area where there are almost no gains to be made, and her manifesto relaunch was in Twickenham, where again there is a sitting Tory MP.
Lord Ashcroft has the projection for a whopping majority still.
And there may be. The places May has chosen to visit lately, however, are different to those at the start of the campaign as they look defensive.
It isn't a perfect indicator, but things like Cameron going to Yeovil late in the 2015 campaign were, with hindsight, an indicator to sell Lib Dem very, very heavily.
Twickenham was always going to be tight, regardless of national polling.
I don't think that the Plymouth seats should be taken for granted at all. But, she was also in Birmingham yesterday, where there are three potential gains.
All opinion polls are a series of assumptions . ICM take their raw data make assumptions and give a 12% lead . If you take the same data and use Survation's assumptions you get a 6% lead .
Survation's assumptions are for something like an 83% <25yr turnout. That's clearly wrong - might be half that.
I've just managed to watch about five minutes of the increasingly gobby Emily Thornberry talking over and interrupting Tobias Ellwood on SKY. No censure from Adam Boulton. This is what's destroying any kind of political debate, it's now all about the broadcasters and media. Political campaigns have always been boring, I don't know why people expect anything different.
I'm now switching off from this GE, as my TV will not survive and I can't afford a new one.
*If Jeremy Corbyn does not make a surprise appearance at tonight's debate, then my tip is Emily Thornberry!
2 - what about Shy Labour? Surely with a hopeless hapless leader voters a month or two ago were reluctant to admit to being Labour voters. With a strong, effective and competent (until Women's Hour) campaign by Corbyn and the momentum now being firmly towards Labour, and with "nice" freebies for all that nobody can reasonably object to (they might think) in the manifesto, why would anyone be shy about Labour now.
Possibly because their views shake down as follows:
1) "we'd be better under Labour" 2) "I don't much like Corbyn, and if I had to say who would be the better PM, I'd say May"
Which is why it makes sense for the Tories to paint Corbyn as practically a traitor to Britain, so as to make 2) more important than 1). But only up to a point. Past that point, hate can interfere with vision and it can destroy the hater. Logic can then come into play in voters' minds. "If May's a good leader, why did she call the election?", "Why does she keep saying she's strong and stable? Is she compensating? Where's the substance?" "The Brexit election? What is this crazy talk?" For voters who have switched to perceiving May as a sloganeer dealing in reassurance, bereft of substance, is there any way back?
That nice Mrs May pitched her whole thing as being all about the JAMs. She wasn't a metropolitan snobby Dave n George type. She cared about everyone. Vicar's daughter. She was strong and stable and didn't fuck stuff up. She hears your pain. That image is a bit frayed now. Thanks to Mr Timothy (and a budget screw up). I have to say overall I'm still fairly pro May. But she seems to need to learn politics (as opposed to governing). And she is too statist controlly for me (I want a small state free marketeer in charge). I think she'll probably do a decent job through Brexit (I'm fine with Diamond brexit). If she then retires or gets knifed that's also fine by me. Send her to the lords. Right now we need her.
Which is why it makes sense for the Tories to paint Corbyn as practically a traitor to Britain, so as to make 2) more important than 1) in people's minds. But only up to a point. Past that point, hate can interfere with vision and it can destroy the hater. Logic can then come into play in voters' minds. "If May's a good leader, why did she call the election?", "Why does she keep saying she's strong and stable? Is she compensating? Where's the substance?" "The Brexit election? What is this crazy talk?" For voters who have switched to perceiving May as a sloganeer dealing in reassurance, bereft of substance, is there any way back?
It could be like this:
Another effect of this of this has been that many Labour incumbents decided to portray themselves as moderates who don't have much to do with Corbyn in their local electioneering.
This has allowed Labour to run two campaign with different messages that appeal to different types of voters.
Running with two campaigns at the same time worked out well for Leave.
Comments
Unless they state somewhere what the analytic likelihood function is, and how they arrived it, then I would be highly sceptical of the results.
In fact, YouGov should tell us what the likelihood function is.
The model builder (a Dr Lauderdale of LSE) does not appear to be a statistician.
Stan is a powerful open source package developed for big data. It is widely used, but it wasn't made by YouGov. Anyone can use it.
*Assuming* the facts as of today hold for the next 8 days, I expect a margin of victory for the Tories of about 6-8%, which should deliver a majority of 20-40 in a purer 2 party fight.
After the potential flurry of activity on election night, my first thought will be backing Labour for 2022 (or the next General Election).
Edited extra bit: must be off.
What does a Tory Government get me? That's the bottom line for a huge number of people. Me included as it stands.
It isn't a perfect indicator, but things like Cameron going to Yeovil late in the 2015 campaign were, with hindsight, an indicator to sell Lib Dem very, very heavily.
CON 37.8% 331 41.0% 19 5 +14 345
LAB 31.2% 232 35.0% 7 14 -7 225
LIB 8.1% 8 8.0% 0 5 -5 3
UKIP 12.9% 1 4.0% 0 1 -1 0
Green 3.8% 1 2.0% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.9% 56 4.9% 0 1 -1 55
PlaidC 0.6% 3 0.6% 0 0 +0 3
Minor 0.8% 0 4.6% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire 18 0 0 +0 18
Note, under this scenario, both Plymouth seats are lost *but* NE Derbyshire and Wolverhampton SW are gained.
Given that matches May's movements recently, and some of the intell BJO has given us, I'm beginning to suspect that's what CCHQ are starting to suspect as well.
Should they lose the majority it will be as a result of abject leadership, Europe and hubris. Interesting to watch history repeat itself as the loons on the right repeat their mistakes.
Unfortunately it's rather more serious having Corbyn as beneficiary rather than Blair.
CON+DUP+UUP = 320
LAB+SNP+PC+SDLP+GREEN = 315
The LDs have 10, SF 4 not forgetting the Speaker.
Assuming SF continue to boycott Westminster, that puts Tim Farron holding the balance of power (see my earlier) which I imagine is the last place he wants to be.
My personal view is YouGov is wrong and the Conservatives will win a reasonable majority though I think visions of a landslide may be fading and that in itself may be no bad thing for the Prime Minister as it will impose collective discipline and, more important, it will leave Corbyn in situ.
IPSOS Mori for STV reporting a Scottish Poll of SNP 43, Con 25, Lab 25 Libs 5.
STV say that would result in SNP 50 seats, SCON 6, Lab 1 LibDem 1
When I were a lad you could only dial direct to local numbers, otherwise you had to make a - gasp - trunk call through the operator. So being rung up from London by a posh-sounding bloke at a polling co was a big thing, and you stood to attention and told him the truth. Telling the truth is simply not default behaviour these days, and polling is going to struggle until we have a working Voight-Kampff machine.
1 - the polls showing a 25 point lead and 49-50% prepared to say they were voting Tory a few weeks ago suggested no shyness then. Is this factor now dead in the water? If so, then that spells trouble if the current 42-43 figure is the upper limit. Have the Tories really done anything in the past 3 weeks to start people being shy again? Must admit that the sheer bombardment of anti Tory bile and pro Corbyn fluff on my social media feeds is making me very wary about telling anyone I know of my intentions*, but would it trouble me telling a pollster? Hm.
2 - what about Shy Labour? Surely with a hopeless hapless leader voters a month or two ago were reluctant to admit to being Labour voters. With a strong, effective and competent (until Women's Hour) campaign by Corbyn and the momentum now being firmly towards Labour, and with "nice" freebies for all that nobody can reasonably object to (they might think) in the manifesto, why would anyone be shy about Labour now. Hence the surge - but it may mean 36-38% of voters were always minded to vote Labour. Indeed, they have realised that Corbyn is just the sort of leader they wanted when saddled with bacon sarnie mangler EdM whom they detested?
I am feeling really queasy about this, particularly with the YouGov model panel now reporting more bad news (presumably) every day now till polling day. Feels far too close, there are too many 2015 won seats that the Tories held by a whisker when helped by EdM and the SNP threat (the Tories are barely playing that angle this time), and when is the Tory fightback actually going to start??
[*Actually, no longer about "my intentions". We have a postal ballot this time and I have just popped mine in the postbox. Voted Tory, of course. First time not been able to vote in person - felt very unusual popping it in a postbox and the less than 100% certainty that my vote will actually make it to the counting hall...!]
As mentioned before no sign of the LDs campaigning hard in Sutton and Cheam but a lot of effort going into C&W which i guarantee will be close.
Should be enough for Davidson to declare a Scottish victory by 7-50 if it happens :-)
Another factor is, curiously, the indiscipline of the new members. Yes, they've all been told to go and work in threatened Labour seats. But in marginal Tory seats, many have said fuck off, boring party machine, we're gonna win this one right here. The professional Tory campaigners have gone to the Labour marginals, just like the full-time Labour organisers, largely leaving the field in Tory marginals to the rebel army. The impact of volunteers is of course limited. But what it does do is hoover up the anti-Tory vote, and where there's a significant Lab-Lib-Green-UKIP split, the flood of local Labour campaigners is focusing them.
NEW THREAD
The various gaffes of this campaign have resulted in the odds being, well, very odd.
For instance, you can get 1.17 at two bookmakers on May being PM on 9 June.
I don't think that the Plymouth seats should be taken for granted at all. But, she was also in Birmingham yesterday, where there are three potential gains.
I'm now switching off from this GE, as my TV will not survive and I can't afford a new one.
*If Jeremy Corbyn does not make a surprise appearance at tonight's debate, then my tip is Emily Thornberry!
1) "we'd be better under Labour"
2) "I don't much like Corbyn, and if I had to say who would be the better PM, I'd say May"
Which is why it makes sense for the Tories to paint Corbyn as practically a traitor to Britain, so as to make 2) more important than 1). But only up to a point. Past that point, hate can interfere with vision and it can destroy the hater. Logic can then come into play in voters' minds. "If May's a good leader, why did she call the election?", "Why does she keep saying she's strong and stable? Is she compensating? Where's the substance?" "The Brexit election? What is this crazy talk?" For voters who have switched to perceiving May as a sloganeer dealing in reassurance, bereft of substance, is there any way back?
It could be like this:
I have to say overall I'm still fairly pro May. But she seems to need to learn politics (as opposed to governing). And she is too statist controlly for me (I want a small state free marketeer in charge). I think she'll probably do a decent job through Brexit (I'm fine with Diamond brexit). If she then retires or gets knifed that's also fine by me. Send her to the lords. Right now we need her.
This has allowed Labour to run two campaign with different messages that appeal to different types of voters.
Running with two campaigns at the same time worked out well for Leave.