ICM (the worst pollster for Labour) is showing the marginals to be very, very close between the two main parties, so its not surprising a pollster showing Labour several points closer has them doing very well in marginal seats.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour marginals and 1% ahead in Tory marginals
1% is nothing
5% ahead in Labour marginals is key though as it means the Tories will certainly make net gains in seats from Labour
I think a hung Parliament would lead to one of two outcomes. No Brexit or no deal brexit. That is why you like it - you're taking a gamble on the former. God knows what it would do for civil strife in this country. UKIP might win the next election.
If Brexit collapses in chaos and national humiliation, do you really think any party advocating trying it all over again would get within a sniff of power?
Corbyn is Sanders, May is Clinton, Farage is Trump?
May isn't Clinton because she is appealing to the blue collar base rather than ignoring and insulting them.
She's reminding me more of Anthony Eden in 1957, or Major post 1993, at the moment.
It's worth noting that on these hypothetical figures the Conservatives and Labour would be in almost exactly the same place that they had each been in after the 2010 election. But with the SNP and the Lib Dems almost exactly reversed, the dynamics of such a hung Parliament would be very different.
The only certainty is that May would have to resign. Shame it's not going to happen.
Not only do I not think that she would have to, I don't think she could. The Brexit clock is ticking. A government would be required in very short order and only the Conservatives could form one. They don't have the luxury of time for another leadership campaign in such circumstances.
Her entire Brexit strategy would have been shot to pieces. She'd go to Brussels and they would just laugh at her.
Well yes. But once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth.
But what possible Brexit could she negotiate? She's asked for a mandate to take to Brussels. If she's PM with NOM the public have explicitly denied her that mandate. She's weak, diminished, could fall and probably will fall at any moment.
I don't see it. A national coalition of Tory, Lab and LD to negotiate Brexit then have new elections at the end might be the best bet. However mad it sounds. Who would lead? Dunno.
Who would take her job, over what timescale and how? Bearing in mind there's a two year countdown clock ticking. If George Osborne had stayed in Parliament, there would be an answer to that question. Without him, there isn't.
Gove, but he's too damaged.
Otherwise Hammond, Hunt or Rudd in an emergency. All would probably do a softer Brexit.
" The Tory attempts to drag up whatever he said about the Falklands or Ireland back when I was a student just makes the Tories look nasty."
Normally, that would be true, but Jezza is famous for having never moved on from 1967. His hairstyle looks remarkably similar too - if a little thinner and shorter.
@AlastairMeeks - not me. I can fully accept YouGov might be onto something here. Even my Tory voting friends are exasperated with May.
I just don't want to believe it.
It's completely unsupported by leader polling ratings. Disappointed maybe but fear of Corbyn will push every blue to vote, regardless. It's that versus the kiddies charge. Plus Brexiteers versus remainers.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
It's worth noting that on these hypothetical figures the Conservatives and Labour would be in almost exactly the same place that they had each been in after the 2010 election. But with the SNP and the Lib Dems almost exactly reversed, the dynamics of such a hung Parliament would be very different.
The only certainty is that May would have to resign. Shame it's not going to happen.
Not only do I not think that she would have to, I don't think she could. The Brexit clock is ticking. A government would be required in very short order and only the Conservatives could form one. They don't have the luxury of time for another leadership campaign in such circumstances.
Her entire Brexit strategy would have been shot to pieces. She'd go to Brussels and they would just laugh at her.
Well yes. But once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth.
But what possible Brexit could she negotiate? She's asked for a mandate to take to Brussels. If she's PM with NOM the public have explicitly denied her that mandate. She's weak, diminished, could fall and probably will fall at any moment.
I don't see it. A national coalition of Tory, Lab and LD to negotiate Brexit then have new elections at the end might be the best bet. However mad it sounds. Who would lead? Dunno.
Who would take her job, over what timescale and how? Bearing in mind there's a two year countdown clock ticking. If George Osborne had stayed in Parliament, there would be an answer to that question. Without him, there isn't.
Gove, but he's too damaged.
Otherwise Hammond, Hunt or Rudd in an emergency. All would probably do a softer Brexit.
If we really do end up with political chaos after the election I would expect some much more candid views about Brexit to be forthcoming from some of the people currently in the cabinet.
It is routine in the NHS, though when I see an applicant is a graduate of Aristotle University in Thessalonika, it doesn't take a genius to work out their ethnicity!
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think I can guess your voting record Churchill Churchill Eden Macmillan Heath Thatcher Major Haque Howard Cameron May.
Most posters here recall can JackW was pro-Labour.
We've had posters on here that called Ted Heath a socialist. I've always thought JackW a Tory grandee, although the one I thought he was popped his clogs with no noticeable diminution in JackW's output.
ICM (the worst pollster for Labour) is showing the marginals to be very, very close between the two main parties, so its not surprising a pollster showing Labour several points closer has them doing very well in marginal seats.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour marginals and 1% ahead in Tory marginals
To be precise, ICM shows Labour ahead in both Labour marginals and Tory marginals. ICM then apply their turnout theory including allocating most "don't know and won't tell you" voters to Conservatives (because that's what don't knows did last time), and that produces HYUFD's figures. Even those should be alarming for the Tories, as a 1% lead in seats that they already hold does mean a swing to Labourt in those seats. And if ICM's theory is wrong, then their sampling is completely in line with YouGov. AlanIndigo is simply wrong - the polls are NOT showing divergence. They're applying different assumptions to very similar data.
This in a little more detail is what YouGov say they've done (they add cautiously that the estimate is subject to large variance):
YouGov used data from the Office for National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
More polls today, anyway. Let's see what they say.
ICM (the worst pollster for Labour) is showing the marginals to be very, very close between the two main parties, so its not surprising a pollster showing Labour several points closer has them doing very well in marginal seats.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour marginals and 1% ahead in Tory marginals
1% is nothing
5% ahead in Labour marginals is key though as it means the Tories will certainly make net gains in seats from Labour
It may just be that we are seeing an EXTREMELY efficient Tory vote - squeaking by in the seats they hold, squeaking by in the seats they gain, while Labour piles up votes in the cities and also recovers in seats with a five-figure Tory majority.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
The British history syllabus is Tudors and Nazis, and not much on the Tudors.
I think a hung Parliament would lead to one of two outcomes. No Brexit or no deal brexit. That is why you like it - you're taking a gamble on the former. God knows what it would do for civil strife in this country. UKIP might win the next election.
If Brexit collapses in chaos and national humiliation, do you really think any party advocating trying it all over again would get within a sniff of power?
Corbyn is Sanders, May is Clinton, Farage is Trump?
May isn't Clinton because she is appealing to the blue collar base rather than ignoring and insulting them.
She's reminding me more of Anthony Eden in 1957, or Major post 1993, at the moment.
She is pursuing policies which appeal to the Blue collar voters certainly but so is Corbyn to some extent, with UKIP down and the LDs nowhere what we have is similar to Thatcher v Foot before the SDP and then Foot often polled pretty high in 1981 for example and pre Falklands
Jeez, the spread on Sporting Index just leapt up to 197/203 Labour Seats. What's going on?
Don't the guys at Sporting listen to Woman's Hour?
Do many women listen to "Women's Hour"?
It has a loyal audience amongst middle class female Radio Four listeners. About 3 million people at peak audience (live and podcast), average age about 55. So probably not too many Corbyn fans to begin with?
If you listen to Woman's hour it is hardly pro Tory. Very much the standard BBC answer to anyone is government spending more money. I know one over 55 who listens to Womans hour - she is very pro Corbyn. I would expect Tory supporters of that age to be reading Daily Mail and Express.
I think a hung Parliament would lead to one of two outcomes. No Brexit or no deal brexit. That is why you like it - you're taking a gamble on the former. God knows what it would do for civil strife in this country. UKIP might win the next election.
If Brexit collapses in chaos and national humiliation, do you really think any party advocating trying it all over again would get within a sniff of power?
Corbyn is Sanders, May is Clinton, Farage is Trump?
May isn't Clinton because she is appealing to the blue collar base rather than ignoring and insulting them.
She's reminding me more of Anthony Eden in 1957, or Major post 1993, at the moment.
She is pursuing policies which appeal to the Blue collar voters certainly but so is Corbyn to some extent, with UKIP down and the LDs nowhere what we have is similar to Thatcher v Foot before the SDP and then Foot often polled pretty high in 1981 for example and pre Falklands
The Tory campaign certainly resembles the Democrats. The disbelief that anyone could not vote for them is very palpable.
ICM (the worst pollster for Labour) is showing the marginals to be very, very close between the two main parties, so its not surprising a pollster showing Labour several points closer has them doing very well in marginal seats.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour marginals and 1% ahead in Tory marginals
1% is nothing
5% ahead in Labour marginals is key though as it means the Tories will certainly make net gains in seats from Labour
It may just be that we are seeing an EXTREMELY efficient Tory vote - squeaking by in the seats they hold, squeaking by in the seats they gain, while Labour piles up votes in the cities and also recovers in seats with a five-figure Tory majority.
It's worth noting that on these hypothetical figures the Conservatives and Labour would be in almost exactly the same place that they had each been in after the 2010 election. But with the SNP and the Lib Dems almost exactly reversed, the dynamics of such a hung Parliament would be very different.
The only certainty is that May would have to resign. Shame it's not going to happen.
Not only do I not think that she would have to, I don't think she could. The Brexit clock is ticking. A government would be required in very short order and only the Conservatives could form one. They don't have the luxury of time for another leadership campaign in such circumstances.
For all that Theresa May is doing now on Brexit it won't make any difference whether we have a prime minister in place during the remaining countdown. She has been in office for nearly a year now and has not done a SINGLE thing that will help smooth the country's transition out of the EU. She has done plenty faffing around though.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
The Tories have run a campaign that has reminded a lot of voters why they do not like the Tories. When you have a two-party system - as England and much of Wales now have again - if you don't like one party your alternative is the other one.
It is precisely Corbyn's ability to repel older voters, as well as those in certain regions such as the Midlands, that will ensure the Tories win handily next week.
@AlastairMeeks - not me. I can fully accept YouGov might be onto something here. Even my Tory voting friends are exasperated with May.
I just don't want to believe it.
It's completely unsupported by leader polling ratings. Disappointed maybe but fear of Corbyn will push every blue to vote, regardless. It's that versus the kiddies charge. Plus Brexiteers versus remainers.
I think a hung Parliament would lead to one of two outcomes. No Brexit or no deal brexit. That is why you like it - you're taking a gamble on the former. God knows what it would do for civil strife in this country. UKIP might win the next election.
If Brexit collapses in chaos and national humiliation, do you really think any party advocating trying it all over again would get within a sniff of power?
Corbyn is Sanders, May is Clinton, Farage is Trump?
May isn't Clinton because she is appealing to the blue collar base rather than ignoring and insulting them.
She's reminding me more of Anthony Eden in 1957, or Major post 1993, at the moment.
She is pursuing policies which appeal to the Blue collar voters certainly but so is Corbyn to some extent, with UKIP down and the LDs nowhere what we have is similar to Thatcher v Foot before the SDP and then Foot often polled pretty high in 1981 for example and pre Falklands
The Tory campaign certainly resembles the Democrats. The disbelief that anyone could not vote for them is very palpable.
This is Clinton v Sanders not Clinton v Trump and unlike Hillary May leads with bluecollar and rustbelt voters
May in Plymouth - For anyone who fancies more punishment on the betting quicksand this has become, Sutton & Devonport is quite a young constituency which could be vulnerable to a youth surge for Corbyn.
I think a hung Parliament would lead to one of two outcomes. No Brexit or no deal brexit. That is why you like it - you're taking a gamble on the former. God knows what it would do for civil strife in this country. UKIP might win the next election.
If Brexit collapses in chaos and national humiliation, do you really think any party advocating trying it all over again would get within a sniff of power?
Corbyn is Sanders, May is Clinton, Farage is Trump?
May isn't Clinton because she is appealing to the blue collar base rather than ignoring and insulting them.
She's reminding me more of Anthony Eden in 1957, or Major post 1993, at the moment.
She is pursuing policies which appeal to the Blue collar voters certainly but so is Corbyn to some extent, with UKIP down and the LDs nowhere what we have is similar to Thatcher v Foot before the SDP and then Foot often polled pretty high in 1981 for example and pre Falklands
The Tory campaign certainly resembles the Democrats. The disbelief that anyone could not vote for them is very palpable.
This is Clinton v Sanders not Clinton v Trump and unlike Hillary May leads with bluecollar and rustbelt voters
Farage could have been Trump in this election if he'd stuck around.
We really could've been heading for a Con/UKIP coalition right now...
Two respectable pollster show a comfortable Tory lead which is realisted at the polls would give them a majority in the high two figures or possible low three figures. A third pollster with a less than stellar record at accurate rolling daily/weekly polls is showing a potential crossover, and thas is the one that everyone is wetting the bed about and choosing to believe ?
10 days out the Yougov daily tracker was showing a result of 34/34 during GE2015 and the week before had Labour in the lead, well that worked out well didn't it.
It is worth stating that polling is not that difficult compared to ... say predicting climate change or economic forecasting.
Other professions would be laughing stocks if they showed the divergence that UK pollsters do.
It is not that difficult to do polling with reasonable accuracy.
I think there is something in Taxman’s hypothesis, that much of this is a manufactured story.
interesting that the Tories were saying the other day in the press that they expected labour to take a poll lead this week maybe Crosby has friends at you gov who are helping to scare the Tory voters to make sure they get the turn out they need next week
Andrea Leadsom would've been better than Theresa May - Discuss!
No. Tories shot their bolt when they began shafting the leader who outperformed their party in the 2015 election. Fact. And within months of said election.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
The Tories have run a campaign that has reminded a lot of voters why they do not like the Tories. When you have a two-party system - as England and much of Wales now have again - if you don't like one party your alternative is the other one.
It is precisely Corbyn's ability to repel older voters, as well as those in certain regions such as the Midlands, that will ensure the Tories win handily next week.
Also, Labour are running a platform which promises the world, and saying it's 'rich people and corporations' which are going to pay for it. It's £5bn here, £5bn there, a few billion here there and everywhere.
Maybe people are in a mood for a spending spree to make things a little better, They will make it a little better. But the bill for that will come in, and they'll find that 'rich people and corporations' won't be footing it, as there isn't enough of them to go around.
The issue in Plymouth is that much of the UKIP vote came from Labour. The Plymouth results were some of the best for the Tories in 2015 - and the melting of UKIP always made them interesting this time. That said, peacenik Corbyn will not play anywhere near as well in the naval city as he does nationally.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
The Tories have run a campaign that has reminded a lot of voters why they do not like the Tories. When you have a two-party system - as England and much of Wales now have again - if you don't like one party your alternative is the other one.
It is precisely Corbyn's ability to repel older voters, as well as those in certain regions such as the Midlands, that will ensure the Tories win handily next week.
Yes I would agree with that my father a conservative was upset with the Falklands regarding Corbyn with paxman .However the Ireland stuff he never mentions.My two daughters and their partners in their late twenties big Corbyn fans .The 1980s to them are history.
Andrea Leadsom would've been better than Theresa May - Discuss!
No. Tories shot their bolt when they began shafting the leader who outperformed their party in the 2015 election. Fact. And within months of said election.
You mean the leader that resigned.... despite telling people that he wouldn't ?
Andrea Leadsom would've been better than Theresa May - Discuss!
I expect half the Cabinet thinks they could have done a better job than May, and wishes there had been a supplementary entry stage after Boris withdrew.
I'm sorry, but I don't believe this YouGov "prediction" for a minute. Just because this polling methodology correctly predicted the result of the EU referendum, doesn't mean anything when it comes to a general election. The referendum was not a general election, and it was a simple one thing or another choice. The vote next week is a general election with the two large parties plus lots of smaller ones. A lot of different factors come in to play which don't apply to a binary either/or choice.
Remember the polls in 2015 predicting a hung parliament? It didn't happen then, and it 's not going to happen next week. The Tories are not going to lose their majority. They will increase it to at least 40 or 50 seats.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think that the Shy Tory factor may have increased significantly again. I am not a Tory and will vote Libdem, but I cannot stand Corbyn, and my wife was going on about how if you don't like Corbyn then you must be a Tory. She is very reasonable. The stuff I have seen on social media, probably propagated by the Corbynistas, is amazing. I have seen all the following - if you are a Tory you must be evil, not care about anyone else at all, hate the unemployed, want all the disabled to die, want the total destruction of the NHS in the next five years, as well as the more simple c**t, s**t or wa**er. Amid this deluge of abuse I feel that people are very reluctant about sharing any anti Corbyn opinions on social media. After someone went on about how the Corbyn IRA Story was a right wing media construction I shared the following to great abuse. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
Andrea Leadsom would've been better than Theresa May - Discuss!
No. Tories shot their bolt when they began shafting the leader who outperformed their party in the 2015 election. Fact. And within months of said election.
May was right about not taking the polls for granted, referring to how the odds on Remain and Clinton looked like just before they lost, but I don't think she expected to be right.
I'm sorry, but I don't believe this YouGov "prediction" for a minute. Just because this polling methodology correctly predicted the result of the EU referendum, doesn't mean anything when it comes to a general election. The referendum was not a general election, and it was a simple one thing or another choice. The vote next week is a general election with the two large parties plus lots of smaller ones. A lot of different factors come in to play which don't apply to a binary either/or choice.
Remember the polls in 2015 predicting a hung parliament? It didn't happen then, and it 's not going to happen next week. The Tories are not going to lose their majority. They will increase it to at least 40 or 50 seats.
Mr. T, the markets can be daft sods. Worth always remembering that humans drive (and can panic) the markets.
Remember referendum night. The City had stupidly done its own exit polls (there wasn't an official one because it was too hard to model/balance) and thought Remain was in the bag. Then the night unfolded...
We'll see what happens. The Conservatives should knife Timothy, whatever else happens.
£ down nearly a cent on this poll. Markets spooked.
What? 1 whole cent ? Its fluctuated by more than that half a dozen times in the last month, on the whole probably not in relation to opinion polls results, especially daily trackers.
The National Assistance Act 1948 first gave local authorities the power to force people to sell their homes to pay for residential care (at the same time as providing a safety net for everyone). Nearly seventy years later most people have no idea.
The issue in Plymouth is that much of the UKIP vote came from Labour. The Plymouth results were some of the best for the Tories in 2015 - and the melting of UKIP always made them interesting this time. That said, peacenik Corbyn will not play anywhere near as well in the naval city as he does nationally.
I was in Plymouth over the weekend and had a decent look around (made a nice killing on predicting Mercer would take one of the seats for the Tories in 2015).
My betting is that the Tories will retain Plymouth Moor View but lose Plymouth Sutton & Devonport. This is based on poster spotting and casual conversations. There's a decent sized student population in Plymouth now and the city feels a lot younger/arty than it did when I grew up there.
Overheard quite a few anti-Tory conversations, not many pro-Labour ones. I think this is May's second visit to Plymouth this campaign so clearly some concern there.
I think a hung Parliament would lead to one of two outcomes. No Brexit or no deal brexit. That is why you like it - you're taking a gamble on the former. God knows what it would do for civil strife in this country. UKIP might win the next election.
If Brexit collapses in chaos and national humiliation, do you really think any party advocating trying it all over again would get within a sniff of power?
Corbyn is Sanders, May is Clinton, Farage is Trump?
May isn't Clinton because she is appealing to the blue collar base rather than ignoring and insulting them.
She's reminding me more of Anthony Eden in 1957, or Major post 1993, at the moment.
She is pursuing policies which appeal to the Blue collar voters certainly but so is Corbyn to some extent, with UKIP down and the LDs nowhere what we have is similar to Thatcher v Foot before the SDP and then Foot often polled pretty high in 1981 for example and pre Falklands
The Tory campaign certainly resembles the Democrats. The disbelief that anyone could not vote for them is very palpable.
This is Clinton v Sanders not Clinton v Trump and unlike Hillary May leads with bluecollar and rustbelt voters
Farage could have been Trump in this election if he'd stuck around.
We really could've been heading for a Con/UKIP coalition right now...
Possibly though I also don't now think it impossible we could have PM Corbyn and President Sanders by the end of 2022, though still unlikely
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
£ down nearly a cent on this poll. Markets spooked.
Can you imagine a Corbyn lead Brexit ?
Out the single market, cash paid over to Brussels and zero controls on immigration.
I'm guessing you'd leave the country if Corbyn was in charge :>
The Tories would win the following election handily though, just with an even bigger mess to clean up.
Who knows for 2022 - anyway 5 years of Corbyn could properly ruin the country. I think the way this election has gone means Labour will definitely win the next one though. Perhaps even if McDonnell or Corbyn carries on.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
The Tories have run a campaign that has reminded a lot of voters why they do not like the Tories. When you have a two-party system - as England and much of Wales now have again - if you don't like one party your alternative is the other one.
It is precisely Corbyn's ability to repel older voters, as well as those in certain regions such as the Midlands, that will ensure the Tories win handily next week.
Yes I would agree with that my father a conservative was upset with the Falklands regarding Corbyn with paxman .However the Ireland stuff he never mentions.My two daughters and their partners in their late twenties big Corbyn fans .The 1980s to them are history.
Yes, that's the trouble. To those in their 20s you may as well talk about the 1930s compared to the 1980s.
But those over 35 will remember very well. The IRA campaign went on until 1996.
"I have doubts about these findings from YouGov because it doesn’t match up with the supplementaries/leader ratings."
It matches with at least one supplementary: ComRes found that Labour was preferred by 42% to 37% for having the "best policies for people like me and my family".
Are there any stats on whether that's a better predictor than the "best leader" question?
I'm sure if you asked people, they would say the first was more important - at least if you didn't remind them that governments sometimes don't implement their policies.
Which ones are cutting through? the ones that concentrate on austerity policies, or the ones that concentrate on history?
I haven't watched these videos (I'm not on Facebook), but doesn't the Tory "Corbyn-IRA" thing make the Tories look nasty in some markets?
Some small but possibly quite swingy demographics - middle-class post-Blairite types, say - will realise that as Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn receives frequent security briefings, including about terrorist threats. As far as we know, no objections have been raised by the government or any of its departments. So the Tories are only saying this for party political reasons. They look like creeps, bullies, and liars. "Can't they fight this on the policies?" many will ask.
As they fall in the polls, what will happen is that they and the billionaire press will get even nastier!
Calling an election when you don't have to, having no attractive policies, and saying "please make us stronger" and "we stand for strength and stability" was ASKING FOR TROUBLE.
Don't underestimate Seumas. Perhaps the Old Wykehamists will kick the Old Etonians' arses!
Andrea Leadsom would've been better than Theresa May - Discuss!
No. Tories shot their bolt when they began shafting the leader who outperformed their party in the 2015 election. Fact. And within months of said election.
Cameron resigned (after previously stating he wouldn't)
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think that the Shy Tory factor may have increased significantly again. I am not a Tory and will vote Libdem, but I cannot stand Corbyn, and my wife was going on about how if you don't like Corbyn then you must be a Tory. She is very reasonable. The stuff I have seen on social media, probably propagated by the Corbynistas, is amazing. I have seen all the following - if you are a Tory you must be evil, not care about anyone else at all, hate the unemployed, want all the disabled to die, want the total destruction of the NHS in the next five years, as well as the more simple c**t, s**t or wa**er. Amid this deluge of abuse I feel that people are very reluctant about sharing any anti Corbyn opinions on social media. After someone went on about how the Corbyn IRA Story was a right wing media construction I shared the following to great abuse. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
I am very happy to be combative about my politics on here, but would NEVER raise it on Facebook. I never link to anything political. It's just not worth it. The Left are just SO certain that they hold the moral high-ground. It seems to be their sop for not having actual power - they can dominate the ether with their views.
May was right about not taking the polls for granted, referring to how the odds on Remain and Clinton looked like just before they lost, but I don't think she expected to be right.
Well clearly not... They wouldn't have touched WFA or social care with a ten foot barge pole if they'd known what was going to happen subsequently...
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Wouldn't he run into difficulties with his nationalisation programme?
I've just sold the remaining half of my DOWN bet on the Tories at 369 Seats. Maybe I've cashed in a little early given the direction of travel of the polls, but I'm delighted to have made a 33 Seat Profit x my stake, by reference to my original SALE price of 402 seats. Spread Betting is high risk and high reward and on this occasion I'm fortunate to have made a very substantial profit. Having also SOLD the LibDems at 27 Seats, I was tempted to close this bet also, to realise another stonking good profit, but on reflection the 15 Seats price to do so looked a tad too high, so I'll sweat this one out until the price reaches 12 or thereabouts. Having said that, I've learned through bitter experience that spread-betting profits can prove to be very ephemeral and more often than not should be taken without greedily holding out for more, so I might well change my mind on this one, especially since the maximum movement appears to be about 5 seats either way, with the Yellow team probably destined to win between 10 - 20 seats, whereas the Tories' situation is very much more wide open with the possibility of them winning anywhere between 320 - 400 seats. I bagged Labour to win Brighton Pavilion at unbelievable odds of 25/1 with Bet365 earlier this morning (now 16/1) and also for them to hold Dewsbury at 4/1, also with Bet365. Sheffield Hallam ? .... that's my next port of call! DYOR.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Now you tell me.
Now I'm really regretting sending in my postal vote yesterday.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
I'm not sure.
He's been leave for 40 years and his radical platform is very hard to implement from within the EU - He was calling for A50 to be revoked on the morning after the referendum lol - He'll be under great pressure from the PLP to cancel Brexit though...
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Wouldn't he run into difficulties with his nationalisation programme?
If Corbyn wins the IMF will be at the helm within 48 hours
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
So basically EU membership in all but name. Yes that's possible.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
The legal advice on whether A50 could be abandoned/withdrawn was sufficiently unclear as to allow politicians to do whatever they like. HMG would simply need to agree with the EUC.
"Moral reforms and deteriorations are moved by large forces, and are mostly caused by reactions from the habits of a preceding period. Backwards and forwards swings the great pendulum, and its alternations are not determined by a few distinguished folk clinging to the end of it."
- Historian Sir Charles Alexander Petrie, 3rd Baronet, writing in 1958
Thought the recent article on the youth vote was excellent. A growing proportion of the electorate look on the 1970s as ancient history. Had an interesting political discussion with my (mildly exercised) 20-something nephew last night. He is working three different jobs in the gig economy, has crushing student debt, feels utterly betrayed by the LibDems (who he voted for when he had the voted for the first time in 2010) and amongst his ex-student friends in and around Oxford reckons the election is in the bag for Corbyn.
I didn't agree with everything he said - I'm still thinking of a 30-40 majority for Tories - but it was an extremely eye-opening conversation. The momentum is definitely with Corbyn, and one reason is the digital guerilla ground-game being played by the young Corbynistas.
Expect the Tory panic to mount, and the digital troops to harry them increasingly as the days tick down.
The issue in Plymouth is that much of the UKIP vote came from Labour. The Plymouth results were some of the best for the Tories in 2015 - and the melting of UKIP always made them interesting this time. That said, peacenik Corbyn will not play anywhere near as well in the naval city as he does nationally.
I was in Plymouth over the weekend and had a decent look around (made a nice killing on predicting Mercer would take one of the seats for the Tories in 2015).
My betting is that the Tories will retain Plymouth Moor View but lose Plymouth Sutton & Devonport. This is based on poster spotting and casual conversations. There's a decent sized student population in Plymouth now and the city feels a lot younger/arty than it did when I grew up there.
Overheard quite a few anti-Tory conversations, not many pro-Labour ones. I think this is May's second visit to Plymouth this campaign so clearly some concern there.
WillS.
No Communist standing in Sutton and Devonport this time - those 106 votes could be crucial!
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think that the Shy Tory factor may have increased significantly again. I am not a Tory and will vote Libdem, but I cannot stand Corbyn, and my wife was going on about how if you don't like Corbyn then you must be a Tory. She is very reasonable. The stuff I have seen on social media, probably propagated by the Corbynistas, is amazing. I have seen all the following - if you are a Tory you must be evil, not care about anyone else at all, hate the unemployed, want all the disabled to die, want the total destruction of the NHS in the next five years, as well as the more simple c**t, s**t or wa**er. Amid this deluge of abuse I feel that people are very reluctant about sharing any anti Corbyn opinions on social media. After someone went on about how the Corbyn IRA Story was a right wing media construction I shared the following to great abuse. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
I am very happy to be combative about my politics on here, but would NEVER raise it on Facebook. I never link to anything political. It's just not worth it. The Left are just SO certain that they hold the moral high-ground. It seems to be their sop for not having actual power - they can dominate the ether with their views.
Wankers.
I am sure that you are not the only one. I am merely pointing out that there is a counternarative to the Tory IRA ad, and the polls show which is having an effect.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Wouldn't he run into difficulties with his nationalisation programme?
If Corbyn wins, he'll be deposed.
A credible challenger from the centre-left in the PLP did not come forward before because it looked like the next election was lost, and why carry the can?
But, if the prize is PM, a credible challenger will emerge within months
Plymouth of course has one of the higher young'un percentages. If what the polls are saying is true then the relatively few Con marginals with decent youth votes are going to be a risk.
ICM (the worst pollster for Labour) is showing the marginals to be very, very close between the two main parties, so its not surprising a pollster showing Labour several points closer has them doing very well in marginal seats.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour marginals and 1% ahead in Tory marginals
1% is nothing
Do you realise 1% lead in Tory marginal actually means a swing to Labour ?
Regardless, both the 5% and the 1% are arrived at after the DK,s who voted last time, are given to the Tories disproportionately.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think that the Shy Tory factor may have increased significantly again. I am not a Tory and will vote Libdem, but I cannot stand Corbyn, and my wife was going on about how if you don't like Corbyn then you must be a Tory. She is very reasonable. The stuff I have seen on social media, probably propagated by the Corbynistas, is amazing. I have seen all the following - if you are a Tory you must be evil, not care about anyone else at all, hate the unemployed, want all the disabled to die, want the total destruction of the NHS in the next five years, as well as the more simple c**t, s**t or wa**er. Amid this deluge of abuse I feel that people are very reluctant about sharing any anti Corbyn opinions on social media. After someone went on about how the Corbyn IRA Story was a right wing media construction I shared the following to great abuse. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
I am very happy to be combative about my politics on here, but would NEVER raise it on Facebook. I never link to anything political. It's just not worth it. The Left are just SO certain that they hold the moral high-ground. It seems to be their sop for not having actual power - they can dominate the ether with their views.
Wankers.
I am sure that you are not the only one. I am merely pointing out that there is a counternarative to the Tory IRA ad, and the polls show which is having an effect.
Although I don't think we have had much polling which would have taken in the IRA ad views yet....too soon to know if it is having an effect, an if so, in which regions.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
So basically EU membership in all but name. Yes that's possible.
Yes, staying in the Single Market makes rejoining so much simpler...
£ down nearly a cent on this poll. Markets spooked.
Can you imagine a Corbyn lead Brexit ?
Out the single market, cash paid over to Brussels and zero controls on immigration.
I'm guessing you'd leave the country if Corbyn was in charge :>
He wouldn't be "leading" anything. He would be speaking solely to his base and passively accepting whatever the EU demanded.
No he will be holding discussions with other European socialist parties not realizing that they don't count? Has he ever held discussions with anybody he disagrees with?
ICM (the worst pollster for Labour) is showing the marginals to be very, very close between the two main parties, so its not surprising a pollster showing Labour several points closer has them doing very well in marginal seats.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour marginals and 1% ahead in Tory marginals
1% is nothing
5% ahead in Labour marginals is key though as it means the Tories will certainly make net gains in seats from Labour
It may just be that we are seeing an EXTREMELY efficient Tory vote - squeaking by in the seats they hold, squeaking by in the seats they gain, while Labour piles up votes in the cities and also recovers in seats with a five-figure Tory majority.
The other thing is that certainty to vote may have been up to now suppressed in Tory voters. Large leads, a negative campaign, poorly communicated proposals for social care, which is a two in one gloomy topic about massive costs and death.
I still think the Corbyn IRA story will be significant for this older group if it looks like Corbyn is anywhere near power. I think it is the type of story that will motivate those less likely to vote to actually go out, particularly in WWC areas with links to military.
Someone said yesterday that they thought Bristol NW would go labour. As the area has a large amount of defence employment based in the adjacent Filton and Bradley Stoke constituency, then this would really surprise me.
Good afternoon from the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka where healthcare is free and universal and education is free from primary level to university.
How are my PB Tory friends today? For what it's worth I don't believe the YouGov poll - it's drivel and they will have egg on their face come June 9th.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think that the Shy Tory factor may have increased significantly again. I am not a Tory and will vote Libdem, but I cannot stand Corbyn, and my wife was going on about how if you don't like Corbyn then you must be a Tory. She is very reasonable. The stuff I have seen on social media, probably propagated by the Corbynistas, is amazing. I have seen all the following - if you are a Tory you must be evil, not care about anyone else at all, hate the unemployed, want all the disabled to die, want the total destruction of the NHS in the next five years, as well as the more simple c**t, s**t or wa**er. Amid this deluge of abuse I feel that people are very reluctant about sharing any anti Corbyn opinions on social media. After someone went on about how the Corbyn IRA Story was a right wing media construction I shared the following to great abuse. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
I am very happy to be combative about my politics on here, but would NEVER raise it on Facebook. I never link to anything political. It's just not worth it. The Left are just SO certain that they hold the moral high-ground. It seems to be their sop for not having actual power - they can dominate the ether with their views.
Wankers.
I am sure that you are not the only one. I am merely pointing out that there is a counternarative to the Tory IRA ad, and the polls show which is having an effect.
Although I don't think we have had much polling which would have taken in the IRA ad views yet....too soon to know if it is having an effect, an if so, in which regions.
Another very clever ad from Labour. Which agency are they using? Clearly they have money to spend on very simple, cleverly conceived ads (the triple whammy one was also great – a clever send up of the classic Tory double whammy poster).
Comments
She's reminding me more of Anthony Eden in 1957, or Major post 1993, at the moment.
Otherwise Hammond, Hunt or Rudd in an emergency. All would probably do a softer Brexit.
" The Tory attempts to drag up whatever he said about the Falklands or Ireland back when I was a student just makes the Tories look nasty."
Normally, that would be true, but Jezza is famous for having never moved on from 1967. His hairstyle looks remarkably similar too - if a little thinner and shorter.
I have a sneaky suspicion one of today's polls will give Labour a 1% lead!
(The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
https://www.facebook.com/www.JOE.co.uk/videos/902260309938036/
This in a little more detail is what YouGov say they've done (they add cautiously that the estimate is subject to large variance):
YouGov used data from the Office for National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
More polls today, anyway. Let's see what they say.
It's worth remembering that May is still well ahead on leadership and the Cons lead on the 3 big salient issues - the economy, Brexit and immigration.
http://www.cornwalllive.com/prime-minister-theresa-may-returns-to-the-south-west-to-rally-voters-as-she-visits-plymouth/story-30363619-detail/story.html
Disraeli
Gladstone
Lord Sailsbury
Henry Campbell-Bannerman
Asquith
Lloyd George
Baldwin
Attlee
Churchill
Eden
Macmillan
Home
Wilson
Heath
Thatcher
Major
Blair
Kennedy
Cameron
May?
It is precisely Corbyn's ability to repel older voters, as well as those in certain regions such as the Midlands, that will ensure the Tories win handily next week.
NUT one is now at over 3.4 million.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1951156004910535&id=1765332603492877
This one on disability benefit cuts is over 1.6 million.
The Momentum one is at 1.6 million
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=457075104637882&id=155710354774360
Which ones are cutting through? the ones that concentrate on austerity policies, or the ones that concentrate on history?
We really could've been heading for a Con/UKIP coalition right now...
Maybe people are in a mood for a spending spree to make things a little better, They will make it a little better. But the bill for that will come in, and they'll find that 'rich people and corporations' won't be footing it, as there isn't enough of them to go around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8&t=5s
Remember the polls in 2015 predicting a hung parliament? It didn't happen then, and it 's not going to happen next week. The Tories are not going to lose their majority. They will increase it to at least 40 or 50 seats.
Out the single market, cash paid over to Brussels and zero controls on immigration.
I'm guessing you'd leave the country if Corbyn was in charge :>
http://m.cornwalllive.com/general-election-2017-cornwall-results-too-close-to-call-after-our-latest-shock-poll/story-30363616-detail/story.html
Far from nailed on Con holds.
Austerity trumps Brexit methinks.
Remember referendum night. The City had stupidly done its own exit polls (there wasn't an official one because it was too hard to model/balance) and thought Remain was in the bag. Then the night unfolded...
We'll see what happens. The Conservatives should knife Timothy, whatever else happens.
JHC the bedwetting on here is getting tedious.
My betting is that the Tories will retain Plymouth Moor View but lose Plymouth Sutton & Devonport. This is based on poster spotting and casual conversations. There's a decent sized student population in Plymouth now and the city feels a lot younger/arty than it did when I grew up there.
Overheard quite a few anti-Tory conversations, not many pro-Labour ones. I think this is May's second visit to Plymouth this campaign so clearly some concern there.
WillS.
But those over 35 will remember very well. The IRA campaign went on until 1996.
It matches with at least one supplementary: ComRes found that Labour was preferred by 42% to 37% for having the "best policies for people like me and my family".
Are there any stats on whether that's a better predictor than the "best leader" question?
I'm sure if you asked people, they would say the first was more important - at least if you didn't remind them that governments sometimes don't implement their policies. I haven't watched these videos (I'm not on Facebook), but doesn't the Tory "Corbyn-IRA" thing make the Tories look nasty in some markets?
Some small but possibly quite swingy demographics - middle-class post-Blairite types, say - will realise that as Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn receives frequent security briefings, including about terrorist threats. As far as we know, no objections have been raised by the government or any of its departments. So the Tories are only saying this for party political reasons. They look like creeps, bullies, and liars. "Can't they fight this on the policies?" many will ask.
As they fall in the polls, what will happen is that they and the billionaire press will get even nastier!
Calling an election when you don't have to, having no attractive policies, and saying "please make us stronger" and "we stand for strength and stability" was ASKING FOR TROUBLE.
Don't underestimate Seumas. Perhaps the Old Wykehamists will kick the Old Etonians' arses!
Wankers.
Spread Betting is high risk and high reward and on this occasion I'm fortunate to have made a very substantial profit.
Having also SOLD the LibDems at 27 Seats, I was tempted to close this bet also, to realise another stonking good profit, but on reflection the 15 Seats price to do so looked a tad too high, so I'll sweat this one out until the price reaches 12 or thereabouts.
Having said that, I've learned through bitter experience that spread-betting profits can prove to be very ephemeral and more often than not should be taken without greedily holding out for more, so I might well change my mind on this one, especially since the maximum movement appears to be about 5 seats either way, with the Yellow team probably destined to win between 10 - 20 seats, whereas the Tories' situation is very much more wide open with the possibility of them winning anywhere between 320 - 400 seats.
I bagged Labour to win Brighton Pavilion at unbelievable odds of 25/1 with Bet365 earlier this morning (now 16/1) and also for them to hold Dewsbury at 4/1, also with Bet365. Sheffield Hallam ? .... that's my next port of call!
DYOR.
Now I'm really regretting sending in my postal vote yesterday.
He's been leave for 40 years and his radical platform is very hard to implement from within the EU - He was calling for A50 to be revoked on the morning after the referendum lol - He'll be under great pressure from the PLP to cancel Brexit though...
- Historian Sir Charles Alexander Petrie, 3rd Baronet, writing in 1958
Thought the recent article on the youth vote was excellent. A growing proportion of the electorate look on the 1970s as ancient history. Had an interesting political discussion with my (mildly exercised) 20-something nephew last night. He is working three different jobs in the gig economy, has crushing student debt, feels utterly betrayed by the LibDems (who he voted for when he had the voted for the first time in 2010) and amongst his ex-student friends in and around Oxford reckons the election is in the bag for Corbyn.
I didn't agree with everything he said - I'm still thinking of a 30-40 majority for Tories - but it was an extremely eye-opening conversation. The momentum is definitely with Corbyn, and one reason is the digital guerilla ground-game being played by the young Corbynistas.
Expect the Tory panic to mount, and the digital troops to harry them increasingly as the days tick down.
A credible challenger from the centre-left in the PLP did not come forward before because it looked like the next election was lost, and why carry the can?
But, if the prize is PM, a credible challenger will emerge within months
But, I don't think Corbyn will win.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/869547189856595969
Regardless, both the 5% and the 1% are arrived at after the DK,s who voted last time, are given to the Tories disproportionately.
I still think the Corbyn IRA story will be significant for this older group if it looks like Corbyn is anywhere near power. I think it is the type of story that will motivate those less likely to vote to actually go out, particularly in WWC areas with links to military.
Someone said yesterday that they thought Bristol NW would go labour. As the area has a large amount of defence employment based in the adjacent Filton and Bradley Stoke constituency, then this would really surprise me.
How are my PB Tory friends today? For what it's worth I don't believe the YouGov poll - it's drivel and they will have egg on their face come June 9th.
Another very clever ad from Labour. Which agency are they using? Clearly they have money to spend on very simple, cleverly conceived ads (the triple whammy one was also great – a clever send up of the classic Tory double whammy poster).