politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has
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I blame Brexit for this.
Genie is now out of the lamp.0 -
I agree just getting annoyed!!!!!!!!Casino_Royale said:
No, we haven't. There are still 9 days to go.Ave_it said:Let's be clear we have won. 10% min lead and 40 maj. 150 maj still possible
Beware hubris.0 -
Can I just add, as a newbie, that I am loving this election. Who knew it would end up being such a soap opera? 2001 it ain't!0
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Calm down.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.0 -
Why was the genie not even close to visible a few weeks ago though!TheScreamingEagles said:I blame Brexit for this.
Genie is now out of the lamp.0 -
GIN1138 said:
I look forward to it. Should be fun. Better than Glumbucket.0 -
Still fairly sure on my prediction, Tory majority of 35-65 seats.0
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I *think* so....RobD said:
They haven't posted VI numbers form this, so is it a requirement?Rhubarb said:I'm assuming that BPC rules mean that we'll see tables by tomorrow?
2.1. All data and research findings made on the basis of surveys conducted in the United Kingdom by member organisations that enter the public domain, must include reference to the following:
Client commissioning the survey;
Dates of interviewing;
Method of obtaining the interviews (e.g. in-person, telephone, internet)
The universe effectively represented (all adults, voters etc)
The percentages upon which conclusions are based;
Size of the sample and geographic coverage;
2.4. In addition to the information outlined above, the public opinion polling organisation responsible for conducting the survey that has entered the public domain will place the following information on its own web site within 2 working days of the data being published.
A full description of the sampling procedures adopted by the organisation
Computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published
A description of any weighting, filtering, modelling or imputation procedures that have been employed, the weighted and (where relevant) unweighted figures for all variables (demographic or otherwise) used to weight the data (irrespective of whether or not such variables appear in any tabulated analyses of the data), and the source(s) of the data used to set weighting targets.
An e-mail address for further enquiries. It is assumed that all other reasonable requests for other data, over and above the requirements specified herein, necessary for readers of the polls to assess the validity of the data will be answered
A link to the BPC web-site
In the case of a poll of voting intentions for an election or referendum (including any election or referendum that has not yet been called), specify any changes to the way in which those estimates have been obtained since the company’s previous poll of those voting intentions. This includes any changes to the sampling procedures, weighting and the treatment of Don’t Knows and Refusals.
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I think the article says the very worst case is 274 seats for May, and the best 345 seats.MarqueeMark said:So this is the projected outcome based on trends - where up to 21% are still undecided?
Okaaaaaaaaay........
But, I don't know their method.0 -
YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.0 -
Con Maj 1.21 got to be a bet
Surely if she doesn't win a majority May will go? Laying her as next PM at 1.14 and backing Con maj 1.21 safe?
@Pulpstar @Pong @AlastairMeeks @Richard_Nabavi0 -
I assume SeanT is simply incapable of posting at the moment...
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My comment on June 24th last year:Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
"This is the February revolution. Sadly the people who instigated it are blind to the October revolution heading our way... "
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1131500/#Comment_11315000 -
I would not have expected such cowardice in the face of the enemy from you.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
Get out there and campaign!0 -
"PB Tories always wrong, PB Tories never learn"?RobD said:
Should we be resurrecting PB's golden rule?TheScreamingEagles said:Martin Boon and Alastair Meeks versus YouGov.
No contest really.
Edited bonus content: COULSON!!!!!!#!!0 -
Formation of a National government, of Labour, LD, NI Republicans and National Tories.williamglenn said:
There'd be a choice: Either the Conservatives preside over an orderly dissolution of the UK in collaboration with the SNP and Sinn Fein, or the Conservatives and Labour form a grand unionist coalition with disastrous consequences.GIN1138 said:Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?
Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Green + Lib-Dem?
PM Jezza, Deputy PM Robertson, and Anna Soubry as Brexit Secretary. The country would be united again.0 -
If this is right May will go, if it is wrong it will be Stephan Shakespeare handing in his notice, getting 1 election badly wrong for a pollster is unfortunate, getting took completely wrong is untenable. With ICM giving the Tories a 12 point lead on a 2015 turnout model (unlike Yougov) one can only say the latter is very brave0
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HaroldO said:
It gives Corbyn the oxygen of publicity. Dangerous at a time with polls suggesting he is on the verge of entering No 10.
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I am campaigning, and donating.RoyalBlue said:
I would not have expected such cowardice in the face of the enemy from you.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
Get out there and campaign!
I'm talking about what I will do in the event of a Corbyn win.0 -
It was, I pointed out Mrs May was crap.kle4 said:
Why was the genie not even close to visible a few weeks ago though!TheScreamingEagles said:I blame Brexit for this.
Genie is now out of the lamp.0 -
Indeed. Hence why even you Corbynistas haven't been this optimistic. This would have to mean the middle aged or even the old Tory vote is hemorrhaging and no one else has noticed.bobajobPB said:YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.0 -
FPTThe_Apocalypse said:
Calm down.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
I love gardening, almost as much as Dr Sunil's mum, though with less spectacular results.The_Apocalypse said:
My mum and grandad are already lovers of gardening.foxinsoxuk said:
Fear not. Jezza is a great believer in the restorative and contemplative value of gardening. He wants gardening for the many not the few.The_Apocalypse said:Tbf I don't blame her not trusting John 'I'm a Marxist' McDonnell. Most Labour MPs would never go down any extreme economic plan but McDonnell.....
Don't think I'll ever be into it, though.
When I think of gardening, I think of two things:
(a. Gardners World
(b. Alan Titchmarsh.
I enjoy the therapeutic aspects of getting my hands dirty, and the garden is literally crawling with wildlife - which is what I garden for, rather than spectacular vistas, in the limited space available. My latest wheeze is building little tunnels underground, capped by old plant pots, then inspecting the network every couple of days to see how many amphibians have headed for the shade. Much the same anticipation as opening the windows on the advent calendar, great fun.
And with if you change things about in the garden in particular, you do see something new every year - this summer I saw a smooth newt mating dance for the first time. If only they had little moustaches. Ken would've loved it.
Strongly suggest, @Casino, you get the fork and trowel out. You'll feel calmer for it.
(Wonder what the gardening's like in Canada? Get the feeling winter must be pretty dire.)0 -
Well, if there were any Tories thinking of staying at home....0
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YouGov seems to suggest that PBers' assumption that the Tories are going to get even more seats than uniform national swing indicates is wrong. Possibly because the Labour vote is going to tactically collapse towards the LibDems in Tory/LD marginals (as we saw in Richmond Park), meaning that the Labour voteshare is more efficiently "distributed" in the seats they can win this time, than it was in 2015. I've also had a slight suspicion for a while that that huge parts of the UKIP->Con transfer vote are concentrated in safe Tory seats like Christchurch and Boston & Skegness (which would thus be wasted extra Tory votes), while the UKIP vote in much of the North and Midlands is splitting more evenly between the Tories and Labour.
That said, I would expect the Tories' national voteshare lead to be better than YouGov's recent polls on Election Day anyway, so even if they do underperform the level of seats that UNS indicates, they should still be on for an increased majority methinks.0 -
Nobody - I mean NOBODY from ANY party - has suggested that that this matches anything they are seeing on the doorsteps.0
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There's never an NPXMP around when you want one. Which I don't, often.0
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ComRes will come out tomorrow and calm the nerves of PBTories. Hawkins is quoted in that Times article as expecting a 100 seat majority for the Tories.bobajobPB said:YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.0 -
But in polls and actual elections, there was no hint people were desperate for a Labour surge. May's crap, but nobody is that crap.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was, I pointed out Mrs May was crap.kle4 said:
Why was the genie not even close to visible a few weeks ago though!TheScreamingEagles said:I blame Brexit for this.
Genie is now out of the lamp.
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I'm getting a slight impression that the social care and WFA proposals might not have been a terribly good idea...0
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The tabloids can't have any readers left to (try and) frighten.
I seriously wonder whether the increasingly hysterical coverage of what Corbyn said and did thirty years ago is proving counter-productive? Trump was (mostly truthfully) attacked endlessly.0 -
The polls are all over the place, aren't they. ICM and YouGov nothing in common.0
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My concern is that May fighting on Labour's ground "the good the State can do" and "the good that Government can do" ends up surrendering the strategic philosophical differences between Labour and the Tories.williamglenn said:
My comment on June 24th last year:Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
"This is the February revolution. Sadly the people who instigated it are blind to the October revolution heading our way... "
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1131500/#Comment_1131500
Voters might conclude that if they're being offered alternate shades of left-wing rhetoric, they may as well settle for the real thing.0 -
Have You Gov improved on 2015?
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/0 -
Haven't read it yet but are these models based on high youth turnout? I just can't see it happening, they didn't turn out for the EU referendum, they won't for this.
Will say I think a majority of 50 or so could be best case for the Tories and that is their own fault.0 -
PB Tories condition downgraded from "blancmange in an earthquake" to... who am I kidding, "blancmange in an earthquake"The_Apocalypse said:
ComRes will come out tomorrow and calm the nerves of PBTories. Hawkins is quoted in that Times article as expecting a 100 seat majority for the Tories.bobajobPB said:YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.0 -
The Times article is up
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/latest-general-election-poll-predicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc
You can read the article for free if you register your email address.0 -
I think if there was yet another election the country would revolt. Brenda from Bristol said it best.GIN1138 said:0 -
I still don't get why the same people would flock to Labour, even with all the gimmes and the positive vision. Not in such mass proportions, without any prior indication they were interested in doing so.williamglenn said:
My comment on June 24th last year:Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
"This is the February revolution. Sadly the people who instigated it are blind to the October revolution heading our way... "
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1131500/#Comment_11315000 -
And there we go. Time to stop panicking and taking YouGov seriously....dr_spyn said:You Gov 2010 not their finest moment.
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/8696686181911101450 -
No I agree.MarqueeMark said:Nobody - I mean NOBODY from ANY party - has suggested that that this matches anything they are seeing on the doorsteps.
Social Care house theft definitely not a game changer.0 -
The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. This allows the pollster to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the EU referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.
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I think this poll is funny! Should cause some Tory bed wetting on PB.....
I don't believe any of the polls as they are manipulated and tweaked at will to make stories. The political parties in poll position may change but the narrative never does. I am just looking forward to the results, which I can look over and make my own conclusions.0 -
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.0
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Sorry, but planning to run away from your country because a party you oppose comes to power in a free and fair election is pathetic.Casino_Royale said:
I am campaigning, and donating.RoyalBlue said:
I would not have expected such cowardice in the face of the enemy from you.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
Get out there and campaign!
I'm talking about what I will do in the event of a Corbyn win.
If Labour wins it is because the Tories have failed. We will have no-one to blame but ourselves.0 -
Her [Mrs May] support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.0
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This might be a good thing, get tory voters out voting.0
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It would be nice to experience this election from an average voter's perspective. We are hyper-analysing every single poll and event on here, which is a far cry from what the average voter will be doing.The_Taxman said:I think this poll is funny! Should cause some Tory bed wetting on PB.....
I don't believe any of the polls as they are manipulated and tweaked at will to make stories. The political parties in poll position may change but the narrative never does. I am just looking forward to the results, which I can look over and make my own conclusions.0 -
But she might not go immediately.isam said:Con Maj 1.21 got to be a bet
Surely if she doesn't win a majority May will go? Laying her as next PM at 1.14 and backing Con maj 1.21 safe?
@Pulpstar @Pong @AlastairMeeks @Richard_Nabavi
Cameron didn't go straight after EU ref.
If it's a Con Minority then May would likely stay on as PM whilst Con elect a new leader - thus the "PM after the election" would be May.0 -
Never tell people the truth about difficult times.TheScreamingEagles said:Her [Mrs May] support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.
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He says the model worked at the referendum.HYUFD said:If this is right May will go, if it is wrong it will be Stephan Shakespeare handing in his notice, getting 1 election badly wrong for a pollster is unfortunate, getting took completely wrong is untenable. With ICM giving the Tories a 12 point lead on a 2015 turnout model (unlike Yougov) one can only say the latter is very brave
But, the referendum was a very different sort of vote.0 -
Then we would be down the rabbit-hole!!williamglenn said:
Perhaps the debate black swan would be a barnstorming performance from Farron peeling off some a few percent of centre-right voters from the Tories while Corbyn continues to surge.HaroldO said:0 -
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....0
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The picture of the page on the site is clear enough to read. It doesn't make its content any less fictional!TheScreamingEagles said:The Times article is up
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/latest-general-election-poll-predicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc
You can read the article for free if you register your email address.0 -
Rump Lab support is one thing. But a surge?kle4 said:
But in polls and actual elections, there was no hint people were desperate for a Labour surge. May's crap, but nobody is that crap.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was, I pointed out Mrs May was crap.kle4 said:
Why was the genie not even close to visible a few weeks ago though!TheScreamingEagles said:I blame Brexit for this.
Genie is now out of the lamp.
Well why not? It's only going to affect the rich, right?0 -
Maybe... But the people will have voted for a Parliament that is literally ungovernable whichever way you cut the numbers and at a time of national crisis (Brexit) so whether the people like it or not if we finish up with a result anywhere close to this we're going back to the polls in six to twelve months...KentRising said:
I think if there was yet another election the country would revolt. Brenda from Bristol said it best.GIN1138 said:0 -
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These are the rulesMikeL said:
But she might not go immediately.isam said:Con Maj 1.21 got to be a bet
Surely if she doesn't win a majority May will go? Laying her as next PM at 1.14 and backing Con maj 1.21 safe?
@Pulpstar @Pong @AlastairMeeks @Richard_Nabavi
Cameron didn't go straight after EU ref.
If it's a Con Minority then May would likely stay on as PM whilst Con elect a new leader - thus the "PM after the election" would be May.
"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election"0 -
Eh?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
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What about voters who don't have internet access?TheScreamingEagles said:The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. This allows the pollster to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the EU referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.
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Suggesting a 4 point Tory lead.TheScreamingEagles said:The Times article is up
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/latest-general-election-poll-predicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc
You can read the article for free if you register your email address.0 -
ICM had the Tories on 45% today, on the 2nd April they had the Tories on 43%.TheScreamingEagles said:Her [Mrs May] support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-20 -
lol I had planned to not watch election night or only watch a little at the start. But if the polls continue to narrow then it's going to be a must watch.0
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Maybe. But I have to protect my family and my finances.RoyalBlue said:
Sorry, but planning to run away from your country because a party you oppose comes to power in a free and fair election is pathetic.Casino_Royale said:
I am campaigning, and donating.RoyalBlue said:
I would not have expected such cowardice in the face of the enemy from you.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
Get out there and campaign!
I'm talking about what I will do in the event of a Corbyn win.
If Labour wins it is because the Tories have failed. We will have no-one to blame but ourselves.
I'm not staying in Corbyn's Britain.0 -
It may be a game changer. The issue is that even if it is where do Labour win seats - As I've stated above I really can't see any, let alone 28+...bigjohnowls said:
No I agree.MarqueeMark said:Nobody - I mean NOBODY from ANY party - has suggested that that this matches anything they are seeing on the doorsteps.
Social Care house theft definitely not a game changer.0 -
Agreed. The only way this sort of result could actually happen is if the oldies had shifted. They haven't on the basis of all the available evidence.bigjohnowls said:
No I agree.MarqueeMark said:Nobody - I mean NOBODY from ANY party - has suggested that that this matches anything they are seeing on the doorsteps.
Social Care house theft definitely not a game changer.
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Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.0 -
I thought the same.Casino_Royale said:
Eh?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Kle4
What the PB Tories are crying out for right now is some SeanT. They say he's like ointment on the wound of the weak of night bladder.0 -
Er.... ?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Said it on the day the election was called the Conservatives will do well to get 30+ seat majority over everyone else put together. If they get 50 its very good.
I think though I have an explanation regarding the polls.
In the words of Sideshow Bob.
'Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside, you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalise criminals and rule you like a king!'
Speaking of Democrats and republicans..Donald Trump appears to be acquiring twitter followers at a hitherto unheard of rate. Many of them have never posted. Others who don't follow him, suddenly find they have.
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To be fair Kellner was no longer working for Yougov then, and Shakespeare publicly contradicted him.AndyJS said:Let's not forget this:
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/7461215614097858560 -
Fidelis in ArduaCasino_Royale said:
I am campaigning, and donating.RoyalBlue said:
I would not have expected such cowardice in the face of the enemy from you.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
Get out there and campaign!
I'm talking about what I will do in the event of a Corbyn win.0 -
Perhaps it's actually boosting his popularity!MarqueeMark said:Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
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Huuuuuuuuurm.The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
What has Aaron being saying about Don Valley? Any chance of a win?Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.0 -
I bet it fucking hopes it is "fairly accurate"!The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
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It is no longer between Conservatives and Labour or even May and Corbyn.
It is between ICM and YouGov.0 -
"Today’s YouGov election model is based on voting intention data collected in the past week. It puts the Tories on 42 per cent, Labour on 38 per cent, Lib Dems on 9 per cent and Ukip on 4 per cent."0
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I can't believe this site is in meltdown over a single projection LMAO0
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Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Hmmm... I just don't know. Two things are for certain: the magic that surrounded Theresa for so many months has all but evaporated, and the attempt to paint Jezza as the horrifying unelectable bogeyman never gained the traction that was envisaged. I still expect the Tories to win, but with many of their number thinking about what might have been.0
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Yeah. How long did it take the one track mind Euronutters to revert to type post 2015. Maybe 3 months....I'm no fan of the EU but it seems half the Tory party are hot wired to think of nothing else.Typo said:
They didn't. He quit!midwinter said:Makes one ponder whether the Tories were particularly wise to dispense with the services of a leader who won them their first majority since 1992.
And that crass stupidity is why we are here now. Campaigning on one policy because nobody had the gumption to think normal people might be interested in other domestic issues.
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It does. But I'm always very wary about dismissing polling I don't like.Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
Let's forensically dissect the breakdown first.0 -
And is producing a massive SwingbackMarqueeMark said:Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
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Seems to be mostly on focus Tory messages, with the occasional 'great response on doorstep' stuff. He had a tough ask anyway. Even discounting this projection, it's impossible now.Gallowgate said:
What has Aaron being saying about Don Valley? Any chance of a win?Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.0 -
I presume it means they're running the demographics of their national polls, and applying them to the demographics of each constituency.Casino_Royale said:
Eh?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
People keep saying that the young people who are huge Corbynistas are concentrated in a few safe Labour seats -- but the reverse is also true of the Tory firewall of pensioners, the biggest numbers of them tend to be concentrated in seats which are already safe Tory.
Most polls now are showing that Labour leads with the middle-aged, and it's that age bracket which dominates in a lot of the marginal seats.0 -
When pollsters over the channel are getting it pretty much on the nose, it's making our polling companies look like a real shambles.KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
"The poll allows for big variations, however, and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, 15 more than at present, and as few as 274 seats on a bad night."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/latest-general-election-poll-predicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc0 -
