politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa May can be and what sort of Brexit and other radicalism we might see, or not see from her
Despite all the light and heat generated with recent polling, I still expect the Tories to win a majority, unless Nick Timothy decides to add another Nimitz class sized barnacle to the Tory boat between now and June 8th
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First!
Everything points to the midterm for the incoming Tory government being brutal. There is enough grief hardwired into the things it will have to do, and considerable risk from external events, particularly the likelihood of economic downturn.0 -
Sion Simon....hmm rings a bell0
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See below. I notice now it was a Friday story, so probably discussed on PB already. But there were posters yesterday still talking about today's relaunch.RobD said:FPT:
What do you mean by that?IanB2 said:Tory 're-launch' today cancelled!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-election-campaign-relaunch-party-lead-polls-cut-labour-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-a7756976.html0 -
Luton airport is just plain wrong...0
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I think the government has benefitted from its competent response to Manchester bombing. Without it, I think we'd have seen poll leads of 0-10%, rather than 6-14%.0
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The header should factor in Theresa May's age. She is what, 60 now, so by the end of the next term will be 65 which is the age at which Margaret Thatcher left office. This probably means that whatever the majority and however successful her policies, ministers will be jockeying for position with an eye to succession mid-term.0
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Whatever majority she gets May will continue to be what this campaign has confirmed that she is: utterly mediocre; at best. In less than a month she will start negotiating Brexit. God help us.0
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Those posters were probably talking about the Times lead story?IanB2 said:
See below. I notice now it was a Friday story, so probably discussed on PB already. But there were posters yesterday still talking about today's relaunch.RobD said:FPT:
What do you mean by that?IanB2 said:Tory 're-launch' today cancelled!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-election-campaign-relaunch-party-lead-polls-cut-labour-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-a7756976.html0 -
FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.0 -
The key is that the Tory share has hardly taken a hit, which puts them in an unassailable position.
It would be interesting to know however how much the pollsters are adjusting the Tory share upwards to allow for the shy factor? People like to back a winner, and with such a one-sided contest it is possible the shy factor isn't as strong this year as previously? Similarly the Labour share is being downdialled for likelihood to vote, which could be confounded if Corbyfandom beats Milifandom (evidence for the latter even having existed being somewhat sparse).0 -
Every single poll shows Jeremy Corbyn to be a net liability for Labour. That's what is keeping the Tories in front. Crushingly mediocre beats toxically catastrophic every single time.Sean_F said:I think the government has benefitted from its competent response to Manchester bombing. Without it, I think we'd have seen poll leads of 0-10%, rather than 6-14%.
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With regards to the voter suppression debate on the previous thread, isn't that what the Tories are planning for the next Parliament?0
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Given the parameters that TSE has set out, I think a lead of 52-98 would be best. I don't want Nick Timothy thinking that the result vindicates him.0
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I think Labour will likely win in 2022 - provided they get a decent leader.SouthamObserver said:Whatever majority she gets May will continue to be what this campaign has confirmed that she is: utterly mediocre; at best. In less than a month she will start negotiating Brexit. God help us.
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SouthamObserver said:
Whatever majority she gets May will continue to be what this campaign has confirmed that she is: utterly mediocre; at best. In less than a month she will start negotiating Brexit. God help us.
I am as unimpressed as you are by Mrs May's recent performance. But practically everyone would at least at some time look out of his depth in the job of PM. It's not making mistakes that matters, but the capacity to learn from those mistakes. On that a final judgement on Mrs May is surely premature if not unfair.SouthamObserver said:Whatever majority she gets May will continue to be what this campaign has confirmed that she is: utterly mediocre; at best. In less than a month she will start negotiating Brexit. God help us.
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It's a big caveat, but I tend to agree. Wiser Labour members should reflect that whatever else the polls say they all show Corbyn is a drag on the party's vote. Problem is that there are not that many wise Labour members. It will come down to the unions, I suspect.Sean_F said:
I think Labour will likely win in 2022 - provided they get a decent leader.SouthamObserver said:Whatever majority she gets May will continue to be what this campaign has confirmed that she is: utterly mediocre; at best. In less than a month she will start negotiating Brexit. God help us.
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But arguably a majority of that size (particularly towards the higher end) WOULD vindicate him, wouldn't it? Surely nobody is arguing that the Social Care policy was put forward as a vote winner? It was put forward as a proposal that the Conservatives could afford to make because May had political capital to spend and it was an explicit trade off between size of majority and room to manoeuvre in the next Parliament. Same with abandoning the triple lock and the tax lock.Sean_F said:Given the parameters that TSE has set out, I think a lead of 52-98 would be best. I don't want Nick Timothy thinking that the result vindicates him.
At the last election Cameron and Osborne made a whole load of manifesto promises that were widely seen as bargaining chips to be given away in coalition negotiations. When they ended up with a majority they had a massive headache to deal with, and this is in part an explanation why we are where we are. Of course the Conservatives could have done this again, and made a load of populist promises, but they took a risk for longer term gain. If they get a comfortable majority then I think they will be happy with that.0 -
Agree - I'd be perfectly happy with that - enough to govern with but a salutary reminder for any ideologues that Tories and ideology usually ends in tears...Sean_F said:Given the parameters that TSE has set out, I think a lead of 52-98 would be best. I don't want Nick Timothy thinking that the result vindicates him.
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There is also an argument that a majority on the "comfortable but not landslide" level would be ideal. Too small a majority and May is in the hands of the awkward squad. Too large a majority and the Tories will feel that they can do what they want as the next election is in the bag. And ironically that may make her more vulnerable to back bench rebellion.0
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Francis Pym was right in his comment about landslides. They have produced some right shocking disasters in the last 86 years. It is vital for the country that May doesn't get one, but as she is being opposed by an ideologue, a liar and an idiot she probably still will.alex. said:There is also an argument that a majority on the "comfortable but not landslide" level would be ideal. Too small a majority and May is in the hands of the awkward squad. Too large a majority and the Tories will feel that they can do what they want as the next election is in the bag. And ironically that may make her more vulnerable to back bench rebellion.
It's a shame Pym doubled down with his private, unpleasant and unnecessary remarks about Thatcher's personality. He would have acted as a more effective counterbalance to Thatcher and Lawson than the plodding Howe or mercurial Heseltine.0 -
My guess is a majority of 100-190. On TSE's scale that gives her the abiity to rule as she thinks fit. So a flavour what to expect.
1. She thinks nothing of gratuitously insulting our ex partners in the EU.
2. She'll re introduce grammar schools and bring back selection in education
3. She'll bring back fox hunting
4. She chose to send vans around areas of London with plackards telling immigrants to 'go home'
5. She will court and sell arms to the most destabilising and misogynist country in the world
A lot to look forward to....0 -
As it is now obvious to everyone but a yet to be determined number of Labour members that it is Corbyn who is delivering the Tories their victory, a White Cliffs of Dover, We Will Never Surrender, Rule Britannia, it's all the EU's fault no Brexit deal narrative will be much harder to sell to the public than the Tories were clearly hoping would be the case. That will create some very interesting political dynamics over the coming five years and put a lot more pressure on May to deliver on her promises.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - I'd be perfectly happy with that - enough to govern with but a salutary reminder for any ideologues that Tories and ideology usually ends in tears...Sean_F said:Given the parameters that TSE has set out, I think a lead of 52-98 would be best. I don't want Nick Timothy thinking that the result vindicates him.
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After the polling scare any reasonable majority is ok. As others have said , large majorities tend to have bad outcomes, but May needs a good enough majority to sort the loons in her party. I guess 60-80 would be optimal.0
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... and we need a Marginal's poll. I haven't seen one this election.???0
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I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.0 -
Morning all. So how was Mega Polling Saturday for you?
Meanwhile, nothing much changed, Spreadex still put the majority over a hundred at 378 seats, and Betfair have the majority at 1.14.0 -
May's support is predicated on Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party. That much is now clear. But she will be entering her delivery phase having failed to cement the strong and stable, mother of the nation narrative she was aiming for. That will make the next five years extremely challenging for her whatever majority she gets. Like you, I am expecting it to be pretty big, if not huge.Roger said:My guess is a majority of 100-190. On TSE's scale that gives her the abiity to rule as she thinks fit. So a flavour what to expect.
1. She thinks nothing of gratuitously insulting our ex partners in the EU.
2. She'll re introduce grammar schools and bring back selection in education
3. She'll bring back fox hunting
4. She chose to send vans around areas of London with plackards telling immigrants to 'go home'
5. She will court and sell arms to the most destabilising and misogynist country in the world
A lot to look forward to....
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That last point being one of the key reasons why the Labour Party as currently constituted is becoming less and less relevant.SouthamObserver said:
It's a big caveat, but I tend to agree. Wiser Labour members should reflect that whatever else the polls say they all show Corbyn is a drag on the party's vote. Problem is that there are not that many wise Labour members. It will come down to the unions, I suspect.Sean_F said:
I think Labour will likely win in 2022 - provided they get a decent leader.SouthamObserver said:Whatever majority she gets May will continue to be what this campaign has confirmed that she is: utterly mediocre; at best. In less than a month she will start negotiating Brexit. God help us.
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Possibly because it's much harder to determine which constituencies are 'marginal'?SquareRoot said:... and we need a Marginal's poll. I haven't seen one this election.???
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Despite all the bedwetting antics of some PB Tories, the ten fundamentals of the election haven't changed a deal from the off and will not all the way to 10pm on June 8th.RobD said:
Hm, 200 seat majority, or Nick Timothy out on his arse? A tough one..Sean_F said:Given the parameters that TSE has set out, I think a lead of 52-98 would be best. I don't want Nick Timothy thinking that the result vindicates him.
Whilst the polls have shown all the calm of TSE left unattended at a designer outlet during the sales and various "events dear boy events" have as usual added to the colour and gaiety of the campaign ,we are really only circling around a countdown to a Conservative landslide.
Did I forget to mention the ten fundamentals to the backdrop to this inevitability. Ooopps .... sorry :
Nine of them are Jeremy Corbyn and the final one is that Mrs May isn't the most recent MP for Islington North.0 -
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.0 -
A serious question SO. As a "Labour without Corbyn" supporter, what is your actual opinion of the Labour manifesto? Do you think the manifesto and Corbyn are all part of the same package, and therefore you wouldn't expect it to be put forward by a "better leader", or do you think it is actually an election winning package (when properly scrutinised)?SouthamObserver said:
May's support is predicated on Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party. That much is now clear. But she will be entering her delivery phase having failed to cement the strong and stable, mother of the nation narrative she was aiming for. That will make the next five years extremely challenging for her whatever majority she gets. Like you, I am expecting it to be pretty big, if not huge.Roger said:My guess is a majority of 100-190. On TSE's scale that gives her the abiity to rule as she thinks fit. So a flavour what to expect.
1. She thinks nothing of gratuitously insulting our ex partners in the EU.
2. She'll re introduce grammar schools and bring back selection in education
3. She'll bring back fox hunting
4. She chose to send vans around areas of London with plackards telling immigrants to 'go home'
5. She will court and sell arms to the most destabilising and misogynist country in the world
A lot to look forward to....
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We share his values, said cabinet minister Liam Fox:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/27/duterte-jokes-that-his-soldiers-can-rape-women-under-martial-law-in-the-philippines/
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What if the majority is 199 seats?
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I think that it is the basis for something a lot more considered. What is now absolutely clear is that what matters is not eliminating the deficit, but being serious about managing its reduction. That gives a lot more scope for a sensible Labour party, which the current one is not. Renationalisation is ridiculous, as is the free stuff for the middle classes. Take those things out and there is a base from which to build. As I have also said on here a few times, the Tory move on social care also frees Labour up, as does the Tory acceptance that the state is a force for good. Labour genuinely believes that. I wonder how many Tory MPs do.alex. said:
A serious question SO. As a "Labour without Corbyn" supporter, what is your actual opinion of the Labour manifesto? Do you think the manifesto and Corbyn are all part of the same package, and therefore you wouldn't expect it to be put forward by a "better leader", or do you think it is actually an election winning package (when properly scrutinised)?SouthamObserver said:
May's support is predicated on Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party. That much is now clear. But she will be entering her delivery phase having failed to cement the strong and stable, mother of the nation narrative she was aiming for. That will make the next five years extremely challenging for her whatever majority she gets. Like you, I am expecting it to be pretty big, if not huge.Roger said:My guess is a majority of 100-190. On TSE's scale that gives her the abiity to rule as she thinks fit. So a flavour what to expect.
1. She thinks nothing of gratuitously insulting our ex partners in the EU.
2. She'll re introduce grammar schools and bring back selection in education
3. She'll bring back fox hunting
4. She chose to send vans around areas of London with plackards telling immigrants to 'go home'
5. She will court and sell arms to the most destabilising and misogynist country in the world
A lot to look forward to....
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Whilst the Prime Minister is said to have a soft spot for Liam Fox one does wonder whether it's centred around him being soft in the head.SouthamObserver said:We share his values, said cabinet minister Liam Fox:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/27/duterte-jokes-that-his-soldiers-can-rape-women-under-martial-law-in-the-philippines/
Fox hunting is also part of the PM's agenda. Perhaps she now favours putting him out of his misery so that he might have more time to make interesting hotel arrangements.0 -
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
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But you don't think that, in the event of a sizeable Conservative victory, and of a sane Labour Party concluding that Corbyn was actually the problem (which is still far from certain), that there isn't a danger that the obvious flaws in the manifesto as a serious progamme for Government will be overlooked?SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is the basis for something a lot more considered. What is now absolutely clear is that what matters is not eliminating the deficit, but being serious about managing its reduction. That gives a lot more scope for a sensible Labour party, which the current one is not. Renationalisation is ridiculous, as is the free stuff for the middle classes. Take those things out and there is a base from which to build. As I have also said on here a few times, the Tory move on social care also frees Labour up, as does the Tory acceptance that the state is a force for good. Labour genuinely believes that. I wonder how many Tory MPs do.alex. said:
A serious question SO. As a "Labour without Corbyn" supporter, what is your actual opinion of the Labour manifesto? Do you think the manifesto and Corbyn are all part of the same package, and therefore you wouldn't expect it to be put forward by a "better leader", or do you think it is actually an election winning package (when properly scrutinised)?SouthamObserver said:
May's support is predicated on Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party. That much is now clear. But she will be entering her delivery phase having failed to cement the strong and stable, mother of the nation narrative she was aiming for. That will make the next five years extremely challenging for her whatever majority she gets. Like you, I am expecting it to be pretty big, if not huge.Roger said:My guess is a majority of 100-190. On TSE's scale that gives her the abiity to rule as she thinks fit. So a flavour what to expect.
1. She thinks nothing of gratuitously insulting our ex partners in the EU.
2. She'll re introduce grammar schools and bring back selection in education
3. She'll bring back fox hunting
4. She chose to send vans around areas of London with plackards telling immigrants to 'go home'
5. She will court and sell arms to the most destabilising and misogynist country in the world
A lot to look forward to....
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The majority can only be an even number.Freggles said:What if the majority is 199 seats?
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Not true, surely. What if a candidate dies between now and the election?TheScreamingEagles said:
The majority can only be an even number.Freggles said:What if the majority is 199 seats?
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Doesn't that depend how many elected members refuse to take their seats a la Sinn Fein and are therefore counted as neither govt nor opposition?TheScreamingEagles said:
The majority can only be an even number.Freggles said:What if the majority is 199 seats?
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Jeremy Corbyn blamed Britain and the West for Isis’s murder of Alan Henning, the Salford cab driver beheaded by “Jihadi John”.
The Labour leader had said Henning’s death was “the price of jingoism” by the West when he addressed a Stop the War rally a day after the gruesome video of the killing was published online.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jeremy-corbyn-blames-the-west-for-jihadi-john-beheading-of-aid-worker-alan-henning-dz356f92t0 -
I don't know. But if it is a sane Labour party (and that could well be different to an electorally successful one) the flaws in the current manifesto will not be overlooked.alex. said:
But you don't think that, in the event of a sizeable Conservative victory, and of a sane Labour Party concluding that Corbyn was actually the problem (which is still far from certain), that there isn't a danger that the obvious flaws in the manifesto as a serious progamme for Government will be overlooked?SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is the basis for something a lot more considered. What is now absolutely clear is that what matters is not eliminating the deficit, but being serious about managing its reduction. That gives a lot more scope for a sensible Labour party, which the current one is not. Renationalisation is ridiculous, as is the free stuff for the middle classes. Take those things out and there is a base from which to build. As I have also said on here a few times, the Tory move on social care also frees Labour up, as does the Tory acceptance that the state is a force for good. Labour genuinely believes that. I wonder how many Tory MPs do.alex. said:
A serious question SO. As a "Labour without Corbyn" supporter, what is your actual opinion of the Labour manifesto? Do you think the manifesto and Corbyn are all part of the same package, and therefore you wouldn't expect it to be put forward by a "better leader", or do you think it is actually an election winning package (when properly scrutinised)?SouthamObserver said:
May's support is predicated on Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party. That much is now clear. But she will be entering her delivery phase having failed to cement the strong and stable, mother of the nation narrative she was aiming for. That will make the next five years extremely challenging for her whatever majority she gets. Like you, I am expecting it to be pretty big, if not huge.Roger said:My guess is a majority of 100-190. On TSE's scale that gives her the abiity to rule as she thinks fit. So a flavour what to expect.
1. She thinks nothing of gratuitously insulting our ex partners in the EU.
2. She'll re introduce grammar schools and bring back selection in education
3. She'll bring back fox hunting
4. She chose to send vans around areas of London with plackards telling immigrants to 'go home'
5. She will court and sell arms to the most destabilising and misogynist country in the world
A lot to look forward to....
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Nope. I'm working on the same principle the bookies do.Polruan said:
Doesn't that depend how many elected members refuse to take their seats a la Sinn Fein and are therefore counted as neither govt nor opposition?TheScreamingEagles said:
The majority can only be an even number.Freggles said:What if the majority is 199 seats?
For example were the Tories to win 324 seats, 2 short of a majority but in reality a Tory majority because of SF abstentionism, the bookies would consider that a hung parliament0 -
But that seat would be eventually contested, so again the majority would be an even number.alex. said:
Not true, surely. What if a candidate dies between now and the election?TheScreamingEagles said:
The majority can only be an even number.Freggles said:What if the majority is 199 seats?
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An extraordinary article even without Liam Fox's endorsement. The more outrageous Duterte's behaviour the more support he gets.SouthamObserver said:We share his values, said cabinet minister Liam Fox:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/27/duterte-jokes-that-his-soldiers-can-rape-women-under-martial-law-in-the-philippines/
The other day there was footage of two gay men being whipped. The crowds chanting 'more' and 'harder' was so large it would have embarrassed Old Trafford.
It's the same in Saudi. Regular executions on Fridays which are packed and with kids sitting on their father's shoulders for a better view.
I sometimes think the EU is one of the last bastions of civilisation which is one of the reasons why we're leaving0 -
Any news on Survation?0
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So our standing up to ISIS is "jingoism" is it, Mr Corbyn?CarlottaVance said:Jeremy Corbyn blamed Britain and the West for Isis’s murder of Alan Henning, the Salford cab driver beheaded by “Jihadi John”.
The Labour leader had said Henning’s death was “the price of jingoism” by the West when he addressed a Stop the War rally a day after the gruesome video of the killing was published online.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jeremy-corbyn-blames-the-west-for-jihadi-john-beheading-of-aid-worker-alan-henning-dz356f92t
I hope somebody in the QT audience asks him that. Somebody from Manchester, perhaps.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Good article, Mr. Eagles. The sharks may be circling sooner than she expected, although later than if Osborne hadn't run away.
Hope you don't mind me reposting this Labour seat change list (which makes my initial assessment look a bit more realistic):
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
Also, my pre-race ramble about Monaco is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/monaco-pre-race-2017.html0 -
I would disagree. It seems Jezza will raise the Labour vote share, so it will not be him to blame for a May victory. Nonetheless I expect him to be replaced within a couple of years, simply due to age. He may well be an effective LOTO for a period of Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
As it is now obvious to everyone but a yet to be determined number of Labour members that it is Corbyn who is delivering the Tories their victory, a White Cliffs of Dover, We Will Never Surrender, Rule Britannia, it's all the EU's fault no Brexit deal narrative will be much harder to sell to the public than the Tories were clearly hoping would be the case. That will create some very interesting political dynamics over the coming five years and put a lot more pressure on May to deliver on her promises.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - I'd be perfectly happy with that - enough to govern with but a salutary reminder for any ideologues that Tories and ideology usually ends in tears...Sean_F said:Given the parameters that TSE has set out, I think a lead of 52-98 would be best. I don't want Nick Timothy thinking that the result vindicates him.
I reckon on a Tory majority of about 75 myself (76 if that keeps TSE happy!).
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
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If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.0 -
I never knew that... this is perhaps why I should avoid detailed betting.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope. I'm working on the same principle the bookies do.Polruan said:
Doesn't that depend how many elected members refuse to take their seats a la Sinn Fein and are therefore counted as neither govt nor opposition?TheScreamingEagles said:
The majority can only be an even number.Freggles said:What if the majority is 199 seats?
For example were the Tories to win 324 seats, 2 short of a majority but in reality a Tory majority because of SF abstentionism, the bookies would consider that a hung parliament
Creation of a new deputy speaker role?0 -
Morning all.
‘A majority of 52-98 seats’ would be TMay’s ideal result, country before party and all that - the fact I could win my two largest bets on this outcome is just a coincidence…!
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I think I can see the flaw in that cunning plan.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.0 -
I remember when Ian Brady was fighting for the right to die the public overwhelmingly said he should be forced to live.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.0 -
Mr. Roger, it is an interesting philosophical question. Is it right to force someone to live? Does it depend on their circumstance (say, terminally ill patient fully in possession of critical faculties, versus imprisoned serial killer)?
Mr. StClare, wouldn't be bad for my 350-374 seats bet, either.0 -
Fickle lot, the public....Roger said:
I remember when Ian Brady was fighting for the right to die the public overwhelmingly said he should be forced to live.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.0 -
Yeah, they are that dumb. How do you hang a dead suicide bomber.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho0 -
I guess you are not her No 1 fan.foxinsoxuk said:
I would disagree. It seems Jezza will raise the Labour vote share, so it will not be him to blame for a May victory. Nonetheless I expect him to be replaced within a couple of years, simply due to age. He may well be an effective LOTO for a period of Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
As it is now obvious to everyone but a yet to be determined number of Labour members that it is Corbyn who is delivering the Tories their victory, a White Cliffs of Dover, We Will Never Surrender, Rule Britannia, it's all the EU's fault no Brexit deal narrative will be much harder to sell to the public than the Tories were clearly hoping would be the case. That will create some very interesting political dynamics over the coming five years and put a lot more pressure on May to deliver on her promises.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - I'd be perfectly happy with that - enough to govern with but a salutary reminder for any ideologues that Tories and ideology usually ends in tears...Sean_F said:Given the parameters that TSE has set out, I think a lead of 52-98 would be best. I don't want Nick Timothy thinking that the result vindicates him.
I reckon on a Tory majority of about 75 myself (76 if that keeps TSE happy!).
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
0 -
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
0 -
Labour's vote share may increase. But England is now a two party country once more. So the best we can say is that Corbyn perhaps will not drstroy the Labour brand completely. He has proved incapable of taking on a truly abysmal Tory leader and PM.foxinsoxuk said:
I would disagree. It seems Jezza will raise the Labour vote share, so it will not be him to blame for a May victory. Nonetheless I expect him to be replaced within a couple of years, simply due to age. He may well be an effective LOTO for a period of Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
As it is now obvious to everyone but a yet to be determined number of Labour members that it is Corbyn who is delivering the Tories their victory, a White Cliffs of Dover, We Will Never Surrender, Rule Britannia, it's all the EU's fault no Brexit deal narrative will be much harder to sell to the public than the Tories were clearly hoping would be the case. That will create some very interesting political dynamics over the coming five years and put a lot more pressure on May to deliver on her promises.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - I'd be perfectly happy with that - enough to govern with but a salutary reminder for any ideologues that Tories and ideology usually ends in tears...Sean_F said:Given the parameters that TSE has set out, I think a lead of 52-98 would be best. I don't want Nick Timothy thinking that the result vindicates him.
I reckon on a Tory majority of about 75 myself (76 if that keeps TSE happy!).
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
0 -
One of the finest men in the history of this country was executed after his death.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, they are that dumb. How do you hang a dead suicide bomber.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho
Poor Oliver Cromwell, given a posthumous execution because he believed in democracy and egalitarianism.0 -
0
-
Think of the previous 6 Labour Home secretaries. All of them duffers but perhaps Jacqui Smith being the absolute rock bottom of the barrel.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Straw, Blunkett, Clarke, Reid, Smith and Johnson0 -
Perhaps Parliament should pass a law denying the right of suicide bombers to a (religious?) burial. Would that prevent them seeing the virgins in heaven?
Just as a matter of interest - what do female suicide bombers get out of the deal?0 -
Long way to go yet. Labour have literally given a lot of hostages to fortune re security since Friday.
May too would have known she was trading seats for expediency- so it is unfair to say she is poor, she evidently did not feel the need for a 200 seat majority.0 -
IIRC, the last Home Secretary to move directly to Prime Minister was Palmerston.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Admittedly, Asquith used it as a stepping stone to the party leadership in the 1890s, but he had a spell out of office and as CotE in between.0 -
Why is renationalisation ridiculous?SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is the basis for something a lot more considered. What is now absolutely clear is that what matters is not eliminating the deficit, but being serious about managing its reduction. That gives a lot more scope for a sensible Labour party, which the current one is not. Renationalisation is ridiculous, as is the free stuff for the middle classes. Take those things out and there is a base from which to build. As I have also said on here a few times, the Tory move on social care also frees Labour up, as does the Tory acceptance that the state is a force for good. Labour genuinely believes that. I wonder how many Tory MPs do.-1 -
Reading up on Cromwell many yonks ago, I discovered quite a few notable characters from history were exhumed after death, in order to be punished as traitors etc. – The 17th century an odd time for that sort of thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the finest men in the history of this country was executed after death.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, they are that dumb. How do you hang a dead suicide bomber.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho
Poor Oliver Cromwell, given a posthumous execution because he believed in democracy and egalitarianism.0 -
I think we expect too much from "the public" especially in terms of rational thought and analysis of complex issues. By definition half of the population has an IQ of under 100 coupled with a disinterest in things political so why should we be surprised that in "our" opinion they make irrational choices.MarqueeMark said:
Fickle lot, the public....Roger said:
I remember when Ian Brady was fighting for the right to die the public overwhelmingly said he should be forced to live.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.-1 -
Wonderful comment on Henry V:SimonStClare said:
Reading up on Cromwell many yonks ago, I discovered quite a few notable characters from history were exhumed after death, in order to be punished as traitors etc. – The 17th century an odd time for that sort of thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the finest men in the history of this country was executed after death.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, they are that dumb. How do you hang a dead suicide bomber.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho
Poor Oliver Cromwell, given a posthumous execution because he believed in democracy and egalitarianism.
'He was as impulsive as his father, but less forgiving. A friend of his who was accused of treason received a fair trial, but it took place some time after he had been hanged.'0 -
The Tory campaign has been astonishingly inept and I agree with the comments about what this has shown about May's very considerable limitations. The fact is, however, that the Tory share of the vote is down 2-3% since the campaign started. UKIP continue to have no pulse and the vast majority of the Kippers remain on board.
What has made this election more interesting than anticipated is the extraordinary success of Labour who have moved from the mid 20s to the mid 30s gathering up the vast majority of the opposition outside Scotland.
I freely confess I did not see that coming. I expected many Labour supporters to go to the Lib Dems in despair. The flow of traffic has been the other way. I expected that the more the public saw and heard of Corbyn the less that they would like it. That is not the case. Labour look on course to get a significantly higher share of the vote than they did in 2015 reducing the swing and the loss of seats.
I think that we are now as a result in the 52-98 seat majority and quite possibly at the lower end of that. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but it does appear that a lot of Brits have looked at the idea of a May tsunami and decided that they had to do what they could to stop it, even if that meant voting for the idiot from Islington North.0 -
If you think the NHS is underfunded, why would you spend umpteen billions buying back say water companies from foreign Govt. bodies that hold shares in them?rkrkrk said:
Why is renationalisation ridiculous?SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is the basis for something a lot more considered. What is now absolutely clear is that what matters is not eliminating the deficit, but being serious about managing its reduction. That gives a lot more scope for a sensible Labour party, which the current one is not. Renationalisation is ridiculous, as is the free stuff for the middle classes. Take those things out and there is a base from which to build. As I have also said on here a few times, the Tory move on social care also frees Labour up, as does the Tory acceptance that the state is a force for good. Labour genuinely believes that. I wonder how many Tory MPs do.
Oh I forgot, you will be paying them with "bonds", which don't represent real money at all, do they Jeremy?
:face-palm:0 -
Diane Abbott - The Best Home Secretary We'll Never Have? - Discuss.SquareRoot said:
Think of the previous 6 Labour Home secretaries. All of them duffers but perhaps Jacqui Smith being the absolute rock bottom of the barrel.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Straw, Blunkett, Clarke, Reid, Smith and Johnson
Clearly only after a trip to A&E because of laughter induced cracked ribs.0 -
And err, being a dictator. Given your oft expressed aspirations TSE does this concern you?TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the finest men in the history of this country was executed after his death.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, they are that dumb. How do you hang a dead suicide bomber.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho
Poor Oliver Cromwell, given a posthumous execution because he believed in democracy and egalitarianism.0 -
Diane Abbott another signatory of the EDM calling for a united IrelandMorris_Dancer said:Meanwhile, in Isn't Corbyn Nice? news:
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/8685860480954859520 -
And yet, in 2010 they somehow found that small electoral sweet spot that booted out the unloved Labour under Brown but without allowing the still unloved Tories a majority. Pretty canny of the public....nichomar said:
I think we expect too much from "the public" especially in terms of rational thought and analysis of complex issues. By definition half of the population has an IQ of under 100 coupled with a disinterest in things political so why should we be surprised that in "our" opinion they make irrational choices.MarqueeMark said:
Fickle lot, the public....Roger said:
I remember when Ian Brady was fighting for the right to die the public overwhelmingly said he should be forced to live.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.0 -
You can't force them to live, but the State and its agents have no right to take any active steps to help them to die.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, it is an interesting philosophical question. Is it right to force someone to live? Does it depend on their circumstance (say, terminally ill patient fully in possession of critical faculties, versus imprisoned serial killer)?
Mr. StClare, wouldn't be bad for my 350-374 seats bet, either.0 -
Back in the day, the Irish used to treat (failed) suicides as attempted murder and would hang the perpetratorSquareRoot said:
Yeah, they are that dumb. How do you hang a dead suicide bomber.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho0 -
Cause and effect, really. If we reject a block that promotes liberal values and the rule of law, we throw our lot in with those that respect neither liberal values nor the law. The pool of Australias and Canadas is small.Roger said:
An extraordinary article even without Liam Fox's endorsement. The more outrageous Duterte's behaviour the more support he gets.SouthamObserver said:We share his values, said cabinet minister Liam Fox:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/27/duterte-jokes-that-his-soldiers-can-rape-women-under-martial-law-in-the-philippines/
The other day there was footage of two gay men being whipped. The crowds chanting 'more' and 'harder' was so large it would have embarrassed Old Trafford.
It's the same in Saudi. Regular executions on Fridays which are packed and with kids sitting on their father's shoulders for a better view.
I sometimes think the EU is one of the last bastions of civilisation which is one of the reasons why we're leaving0 -
Mr Roger,
"I remember when Ian Brady was fighting for the right to die the public overwhelmingly said he should be forced to live."
Surprised to hear that. Most people I know begrudged every penny spent on him.0 -
Would she really have been worse than Jacqui Smith? Appallingly incompetent and out of her depth undoubtedly but worse than Smith? That is a real challenge.JackW said:
Diane Abbott - The Best Home Secretary We'll Never Have? - Discuss.SquareRoot said:
Think of the previous 6 Labour Home secretaries. All of them duffers but perhaps Jacqui Smith being the absolute rock bottom of the barrel.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Straw, Blunkett, Clarke, Reid, Smith and Johnson
Clearly only after a trip to A&E because of laughter induced cracked ribs.0 -
What did she achieve as Home Sec?alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
She failed to cut non EU migration - something that should worry the majority of leavers, and was rude to the Police Federation when they objected to staffing cuts.
The reason she survived was twofold:
1) Coalition politics made reshuffles near impossible. hardly any cabinet changes occurred, even for the real duffers.
2) She was a supporter of Cameron and Osborne's agenda within the party. I accept that in retrospect that this was careerism rather than sincerity.-1 -
I'm not sure but for that matter what would the male suicide bombers do with 72 Ann Widdecombes?alex. said:Perhaps Parliament should pass a law denying the right of suicide bombers to a (religious?) burial. Would that prevent them seeing the virgins in heaven?
Just as a matter of interest - what do female suicide bombers get out of the deal?0 -
Maybe her campaign isnt that bad then?DavidL said:The Tory campaign has been astonishingly inept and I agree with the comments about what this has shown about May's very considerable limitations. The fact is, however, that the Tory share of the vote is down 2-3% since the campaign started. UKIP continue to have no pulse and the vast majority of the Kippers remain on board.
The main 'mistake' in terms of public support seems to have been on social care. But at least she can claim a mandate for her changes now. And she's still on course to win a respectable majority.0 -
So far as I know with all her many and egregious failings nobody ever accused Jacqui Smith of racism, treason or wishing to pay police officers £30 a year.DavidL said:
Would she really have been worse than Jacqui Smith? Appallingly incompetent and out of her depth undoubtedly but worse than Smith? That is a real challenge.JackW said:
Diane Abbott - The Best Home Secretary We'll Never Have? - Discuss.SquareRoot said:
Think of the previous 6 Labour Home secretaries. All of them duffers but perhaps Jacqui Smith being the absolute rock bottom of the barrel.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Straw, Blunkett, Clarke, Reid, Smith and Johnson
Clearly only after a trip to A&E because of laughter induced cracked ribs.0 -
Not in the slightest.DavidL said:
And err, being a dictator. Given your oft expressed aspirations TSE does this concern you?TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the finest men in the history of this country was executed after his death.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, they are that dumb. How do you hang a dead suicide bomber.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho
Poor Oliver Cromwell, given a posthumous execution because he believed in democracy and egalitarianism.
He was a Puritan, I'm anything but a Puritan, that's why the people will love me and not wish me harm.0 -
Nor did she blame IRA atrocities on the presence of British troops and call for their withdrawal and the establishment of a united Ireland.ydoethur said:
So far as I know with all her many and egregious failings nobody ever accused Jacqui Smith of racism, treason or wishing to pay police officers £30 a year.DavidL said:
Would she really have been worse than Jacqui Smith? Appallingly incompetent and out of her depth undoubtedly but worse than Smith? That is a real challenge.JackW said:
Diane Abbott - The Best Home Secretary We'll Never Have? - Discuss.SquareRoot said:
Think of the previous 6 Labour Home secretaries. All of them duffers but perhaps Jacqui Smith being the absolute rock bottom of the barrel.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Straw, Blunkett, Clarke, Reid, Smith and Johnson
Clearly only after a trip to A&E because of laughter induced cracked ribs.0 -
That's covered by 'treason.'CarlottaVance said:
Nor did she blame IRA atrocities on the presence of British troops and call for their withdrawal and the establishment of a united Ireland.ydoethur said:
So far as I know with all her many and egregious failings nobody ever accused Jacqui Smith of racism, treason or wishing to pay police officers £30 a year.DavidL said:
Would she really have been worse than Jacqui Smith? Appallingly incompetent and out of her depth undoubtedly but worse than Smith? That is a real challenge.JackW said:
Diane Abbott - The Best Home Secretary We'll Never Have? - Discuss.SquareRoot said:
Think of the previous 6 Labour Home secretaries. All of them duffers but perhaps Jacqui Smith being the absolute rock bottom of the barrel.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Straw, Blunkett, Clarke, Reid, Smith and Johnson
Clearly only after a trip to A&E because of laughter induced cracked ribs.0 -
My favorite is Monmouth - executed for treason, but then they realised that they didn't have an official painting of him (as a member of the royal family this was unacceptable). So they stuck his head back on, covered the marks with a scarf, painted him... and then executed him again.SimonStClare said:
Reading up on Cromwell many yonks ago, I discovered quite a few notable characters from history were exhumed after death, in order to be punished as traitors etc. – The 17th century an odd time for that sort of thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the finest men in the history of this country was executed after death.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, they are that dumb. How do you hang a dead suicide bomber.MarqueeMark said:
If the public was asked, I suspect you would get a very large majority in favour of hanging all suicide bombers....SquareRoot said:
Indeed but its still terrifying so many people think like that.Sean_F said:
Support for capital punishment tends to rise sharply after an atrocity, before falling back.SquareRoot said:
I agree about hanging. Noone has the right to take someone elses life. There have been too many wrongful executions.. America is littered with them.Roger said:FPT.
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho
Poor Oliver Cromwell, given a posthumous execution because he believed in democracy and egalitarianism.
...probably untrue, but still a great story
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Theresa May was the longest serving Home Secretary simply because David Cameron did not believe in reshuffles. You might as well fete IDS for keeping his seat warm. May's time at the Home Office is best remembered for a speech to the Police Federation which should have been directed to ACPO, a failure to control even non-EU immigration (remember the Border Farce) and an ongoing though low-key cabinet dispute about whether foreign students counted.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
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Good summary.DavidL said:The Tory campaign has been astonishingly inept and I agree with the comments about what this has shown about May's very considerable limitations. The fact is, however, that the Tory share of the vote is down 2-3% since the campaign started. UKIP continue to have no pulse and the vast majority of the Kippers remain on board.
What has made this election more interesting than anticipated is the extraordinary success of Labour who have moved from the mid 20s to the mid 30s gathering up the vast majority of the opposition outside Scotland.
I freely confess I did not see that coming. I expected many Labour supporters to go to the Lib Dems in despair. The flow of traffic has been the other way. I expected that the more the public saw and heard of Corbyn the less that they would like it. That is not the case. Labour look on course to get a significantly higher share of the vote than they did in 2015 reducing the swing and the loss of seats.
I think that we are now as a result in the 52-98 seat majority and quite possibly at the lower end of that. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but it does appear that a lot of Brits have looked at the idea of a May tsunami and decided that they had to do what they could to stop it, even if that meant voting for the idiot from Islington North.0 -
New Scotland poll ?
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens0 -
Tis a challenge that Diane Abbott would rise to with absolute ease. My only concern would be whether His Munifisence Pope Paul Nuttall VC and bar would dare have such a rival in his government of all the talents ?!?DavidL said:
Would she really have been worse than Jacqui Smith? Appallingly incompetent and out of her depth undoubtedly but worse than Smith? That is a real challenge.JackW said:
Diane Abbott - The Best Home Secretary We'll Never Have? - Discuss.SquareRoot said:
Think of the previous 6 Labour Home secretaries. All of them duffers but perhaps Jacqui Smith being the absolute rock bottom of the barrel.alex. said:
She was the longest serving Home Secretary for 60 years, so she must have been doing something right (even though Blair's reforms did remove some of the inherent problems with the role). And there can't be many politicians who have been able to use a stint at the Home Office as a pre-cursor to becoming Prime Minister - it doesn't exactly have a history of enhancing reputations.foxinsoxuk said:
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Straw, Blunkett, Clarke, Reid, Smith and Johnson
Clearly only after a trip to A&E because of laughter induced cracked ribs.-1 -
Non tradeable bonds. Then you can defer the interest or principal repayment and it becomes a matter of default rather than anything else.MarqueeMark said:
If you think the NHS is underfunded, why would you spend umpteen billions buying back say water companies from foreign Govt. bodies that hold shares in them?rkrkrk said:
Why is renationalisation ridiculous?SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is the basis for something a lot more considered. What is now absolutely clear is that what matters is not eliminating the deficit, but being serious about managing its reduction. That gives a lot more scope for a sensible Labour party, which the current one is not. Renationalisation is ridiculous, as is the free stuff for the middle classes. Take those things out and there is a base from which to build. As I have also said on here a few times, the Tory move on social care also frees Labour up, as does the Tory acceptance that the state is a force for good. Labour genuinely believes that. I wonder how many Tory MPs do.
Oh I forgot, you will be paying them with "bonds", which don't represent real money at all, do they Jeremy?
:face-palm:
If they were to try and implement this it would end up in court (and would shut down the capital markets)0
