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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa May can be and what sort of Brexit and other radicalism we might see, or not see from her
Despite all the light and heat generated with recent polling, I still expect the Tories to win a majority, unless Nick Timothy decides to add another Nimitz class sized barnacle to the Tory boat between now and June 8th
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Everything points to the midterm for the incoming Tory government being brutal. There is enough grief hardwired into the things it will have to do, and considerable risk from external events, particularly the likelihood of economic downturn.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-election-campaign-relaunch-party-lead-polls-cut-labour-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-a7756976.html
What a depressing poll. 65%/21% want to bring back hanging.
There is nothing in the small print that suggests this is going to be anything other than an epic landslide for the Tories. They score 43%/24% on the economy and that makes it game set and match.
Only the dilettante wealthy can afford the luxury of voting on social issues and there aren't enough of them. Brexit is an exception but thanks to Labour's ambivalence that has effectively been neutralised. Terrorism is a seven day wonder and most realise it isn't in the control of politicians.
It would be interesting to know however how much the pollsters are adjusting the Tory share upwards to allow for the shy factor? People like to back a winner, and with such a one-sided contest it is possible the shy factor isn't as strong this year as previously? Similarly the Labour share is being downdialled for likelihood to vote, which could be confounded if Corbyfandom beats Milifandom (evidence for the latter even having existed being somewhat sparse).
Interesting.
At the last election Cameron and Osborne made a whole load of manifesto promises that were widely seen as bargaining chips to be given away in coalition negotiations. When they ended up with a majority they had a massive headache to deal with, and this is in part an explanation why we are where we are. Of course the Conservatives could have done this again, and made a load of populist promises, but they took a risk for longer term gain. If they get a comfortable majority then I think they will be happy with that.
It's a shame Pym doubled down with his private, unpleasant and unnecessary remarks about Thatcher's personality. He would have acted as a more effective counterbalance to Thatcher and Lawson than the plodding Howe or mercurial Heseltine.
1. She thinks nothing of gratuitously insulting our ex partners in the EU.
2. She'll re introduce grammar schools and bring back selection in education
3. She'll bring back fox hunting
4. She chose to send vans around areas of London with plackards telling immigrants to 'go home'
5. She will court and sell arms to the most destabilising and misogynist country in the world
A lot to look forward to....
Meanwhile, nothing much changed, Spreadex still put the majority over a hundred at 378 seats, and Betfair have the majority at 1.14.
Whilst the polls have shown all the calm of TSE left unattended at a designer outlet during the sales and various "events dear boy events" have as usual added to the colour and gaiety of the campaign ,we are really only circling around a countdown to a Conservative landslide.
Did I forget to mention the ten fundamentals to the backdrop to this inevitability. Ooopps .... sorry :
Nine of them are Jeremy Corbyn and the final one is that Mrs May isn't the most recent MP for Islington North.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/27/duterte-jokes-that-his-soldiers-can-rape-women-under-martial-law-in-the-philippines/
Fox hunting is also part of the PM's agenda. Perhaps she now favours putting him out of his misery so that he might have more time to make interesting hotel arrangements.
The Labour leader had said Henning’s death was “the price of jingoism” by the West when he addressed a Stop the War rally a day after the gruesome video of the killing was published online.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jeremy-corbyn-blames-the-west-for-jihadi-john-beheading-of-aid-worker-alan-henning-dz356f92t
For example were the Tories to win 324 seats, 2 short of a majority but in reality a Tory majority because of SF abstentionism, the bookies would consider that a hung parliament
The other day there was footage of two gay men being whipped. The crowds chanting 'more' and 'harder' was so large it would have embarrassed Old Trafford.
It's the same in Saudi. Regular executions on Fridays which are packed and with kids sitting on their father's shoulders for a better view.
I sometimes think the EU is one of the last bastions of civilisation which is one of the reasons why we're leaving
I hope somebody in the QT audience asks him that. Somebody from Manchester, perhaps.
Good article, Mr. Eagles. The sharks may be circling sooner than she expected, although later than if Osborne hadn't run away.
Hope you don't mind me reposting this Labour seat change list (which makes my initial assessment look a bit more realistic):
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
Also, my pre-race ramble about Monaco is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/monaco-pre-race-2017.html
I reckon on a Tory majority of about 75 myself (76 if that keeps TSE happy!).
TM was a useless and ineffective Home Sec, she has been a petulant and inflexible autocratic PM for nearly a year, and been in charge of a supremely useless campaign team. None of this bodes well for the next few years in office.
Creation of a new deputy speaker role?
‘A majority of 52-98 seats’ would be TMay’s ideal result, country before party and all that - the fact I could win my two largest bets on this outcome is just a coincidence…!
Mr. StClare, wouldn't be bad for my 350-374 seats bet, either.
in any event depriving them of their liberty forever is a much worse punishment imho
Poor Oliver Cromwell, given a posthumous execution because he believed in democracy and egalitarianism.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/868586048095485952
Straw, Blunkett, Clarke, Reid, Smith and Johnson
Just as a matter of interest - what do female suicide bombers get out of the deal?
May too would have known she was trading seats for expediency- so it is unfair to say she is poor, she evidently did not feel the need for a 200 seat majority.
Admittedly, Asquith used it as a stepping stone to the party leadership in the 1890s, but he had a spell out of office and as CotE in between.
'He was as impulsive as his father, but less forgiving. A friend of his who was accused of treason received a fair trial, but it took place some time after he had been hanged.'
What has made this election more interesting than anticipated is the extraordinary success of Labour who have moved from the mid 20s to the mid 30s gathering up the vast majority of the opposition outside Scotland.
I freely confess I did not see that coming. I expected many Labour supporters to go to the Lib Dems in despair. The flow of traffic has been the other way. I expected that the more the public saw and heard of Corbyn the less that they would like it. That is not the case. Labour look on course to get a significantly higher share of the vote than they did in 2015 reducing the swing and the loss of seats.
I think that we are now as a result in the 52-98 seat majority and quite possibly at the lower end of that. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but it does appear that a lot of Brits have looked at the idea of a May tsunami and decided that they had to do what they could to stop it, even if that meant voting for the idiot from Islington North.
Oh I forgot, you will be paying them with "bonds", which don't represent real money at all, do they Jeremy?
:face-palm:
Clearly only after a trip to A&E because of laughter induced cracked ribs.
"I remember when Ian Brady was fighting for the right to die the public overwhelmingly said he should be forced to live."
Surprised to hear that. Most people I know begrudged every penny spent on him.
She failed to cut non EU migration - something that should worry the majority of leavers, and was rude to the Police Federation when they objected to staffing cuts.
The reason she survived was twofold:
1) Coalition politics made reshuffles near impossible. hardly any cabinet changes occurred, even for the real duffers.
2) She was a supporter of Cameron and Osborne's agenda within the party. I accept that in retrospect that this was careerism rather than sincerity.
The main 'mistake' in terms of public support seems to have been on social care. But at least she can claim a mandate for her changes now. And she's still on course to win a respectable majority.
He was a Puritan, I'm anything but a Puritan, that's why the people will love me and not wish me harm.
...probably untrue, but still a great story
New Scotland poll ?
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
If they were to try and implement this it would end up in court (and would shut down the capital markets)