It is a shame the young will have to live with the luddite and selfish decisions made by their less educated parents and grandparents.
Your remark demonstrates a very narrow-minded view of education. Prior to the mass-participation in university directly from school many people continued their education over a long period of time alongside full-time work. Many made use of night-schools, the OU, the WEA and other organisations or studied independently or with the help of an employer.
I have worked in both academia and industry and over time I became increasingly despairing at the calibre of graduates applying for jobs. We had recruitment campaigns which failed repeatedly to find a suitable recent graduate (and this was at one of the leading companies in my sector).
I don't know what age group you primarily mix with but you should get out more and actually talk to elderly people. They may surprise you.
My recently-deceased father-in-law had a childhood disrupted by war and limited formal education opportunities but he was a voracious reader and I would wager that his knowledge of military history would be superior to yours. He was a staunch trade-unionist and Labour man but if he had lived he would not have been voting for Corbyn.
Frankly, your posts paint you as an ageist, narrow-minded, shallow smart-aleck.
Not really. Just an aging bitter Remainer who didn't go to university (though I have guest lectured a few times) On another day I might have written what you did but occasionally my bitterness towards the Leavers (demographic 78% pro hanging 80% over 65 80% poorly educated) gets the better of me.*
* Approximate
I think you mean uneducated rather than poorly educated.
Interesting comments from Paul Mason on Newsnight who I think to be fair has been quite bullish about Lab prospects from the start of the campaign:
1) He always thought it would be quite easy for Lab to get up to 35% by gathering all votes from the left. But then much harder to go much higher as that requires centrist votes.
2) He thinks big problem for Lab could well be piling up large numbers of extra votes in seats they win anyway - ie much less efficient votes to seats efficiency.
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
The amount spent on the police seems to have little correlation with the number of crimes committed.
Great ! Then let's close it down.
I had heard about the plan for MI5, not heard about Labour wanting to shut down the Police, is this a new one?
Don't worry about your kid's politics, Mr Observer, they'll grow out of it.
That's probably true, but for now at least my children, aged 18 and 20 see more in common with Corbyn than Mrs May. The image of Mrs May rocking up to Manchester in her presidential, armed motorcade, sharp suited and coiffured to sign the book of condolence contrasted with the lone Corbyn ambling to the vigil, looking like he had arrived in Manchester by Megabus was not lost on them.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
Hmm. It is and has always been difficult. Bright children of bright parents should be able to target a good job.
I don't want to dwell on your children but there are plenty of professions that will put well educated people on six figure salaries after five or ten years if they work hard.
some GPs get paid a stupid amount of money for not doing much in reality compared to other jobs.
Two of my close relatives are GPs, neither of them make more than 50K despite working their nuts off for 12 hrs a day because the practise only has half the doctors it should, they cater to a sink estate in rural England where they are able to sell nothing more than a very basic service. GPs in better off areas that are able to offer extra services do nicely.
I thought GP salaries let alone any other incomes were far higher than £50k.
Only if you are salaried. Not if you are a partner.
The car salesman called me back in 20mins. He was at home on a sunday evening and picked up his voicemail and replied to me. He didn't have to, he could have waited till monday but he didn't.
The salesman will be on comission, it will be very much in his interest to service every call as rapidly as possible, a salaried office drone, not so much.
One of the massive differences you notice in most of Asia (and especially here in the Philippines) is that all shop assistants are on commission either directly, or as the representative of a brand, they are therefore almost universally knowledgeable about their products, very keen to sell you something, and very keen to build a relationship so you come back to them next time. When I go home to the UK and try and buy something in and see a group of sullen staff trying very hard not to serve me, and knowing nothing about their products if you eventually corner one, the contrast is stark.
Or the salesman on commission will sell you anything and everything irrespective of your needs or pocket in order to gain his/her commission. I do not know if that is generally the case but it is equally plausible. My experiences in (household name whitegood store)s is generally different from yours.
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
Whilst the Tories clearly did cock up WFP/Fox Hunting/Social Care - and Corbyn's had a decent war- I do think the comparison to a 24-pt lead is somehat misleading. Prior to calling the election it was 15-16. The boost to 21-24 was an enthusiasm gap, I suspect.
So the comparison is probably 16pts to say 8pts at the moment.
It is a shame the young will have to live with the luddite and selfish decisions made by their less educated parents and grandparents.
Your remark demonstrates a very narrow-minded view of education. Prior to the mass-participation in university directly from school many people continued their education over a long period of time alongside full-time work. Many made use of night-schools, the OU, the WEA and other organisations or studied independently or with the help of an employer.
I have worked in both academia and industry and over time I became increasingly despairing at the calibre of graduates applying for jobs. We had recruitment campaigns which failed repeatedly to find a suitable recent graduate (and this was at one of the leading companies in my sector).
I don't know what age group you primarily mix with but you should get out more and actually talk to elderly people. They may surprise you.
My recently-deceased father-in-law had a childhood disrupted by war and limited formal education opportunities but he was a voracious reader and I would wager that his knowledge of military history would be superior to yours. He was a staunch trade-unionist and Labour man but if he had lived he would not have been voting for Corbyn.
Frankly, your posts paint you as an ageist, narrow-minded, shallow smart-aleck.
Not really. Just an aging bitter Remainer who didn't go to university (though I have guest lectured a few times) On another day I might have written what you did but occasionally my bitterness towards the Leavers (demographic 78% pro hanging 80% over 65 80% poorly educated) gets the better of me.*
* Approximate
You are a prejudiced bigot. There are a few other self proclaimed leavers on here who spout the same.
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
"What part of..." Yawn! That's rarely how causation works. Mill's methods.
It's not suggested that Briish intervention abroad is the only cause of Islamic extremism, or that it led to the creation of ISIS. But it is clearly true that our habit of intervening in one Middle East country after another and then leaving a divided a warring country to get on with it (cf. Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya) has greatly helped ISIS and Al Qaeda attract new recruits. The idea that we should intervene elsewhere merely if Mr Trump asks us to, which is current Government policy (according to Boris, explicitly citing Mrs May), is simply bonkers.
But we should defend NATO members right Nick? Only your leader can't even commit to that.
Iraq was a HUGE mistake, a party lied to us to justify that- and they did exactly what that nice Mr Bush wanted.
Remind us of your voting on the lead up to war and the need for an enquiry.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
The consequences of the untrammeled immigration that you support.
No - much more about the mass-mechanisation and digitisation I support.
Mr. Quidder, sounds like your phone has learnt the wonderfulness of understanding differential front end grip
In my many contributions here on Indyref, I could never get my apparently Unionist phone to produce the word independence. I always get improvidence, indolence, indulgence and infringement.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
£12k is under the minimum wage for a full time worker, he needs to have a chat with his employer!
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
Hmm. It is and has always been difficult. Bright children of bright parents should be able to target a good job.
I don't want to dwell on your children but there are plenty of professions that will put well educated people on six figure salaries after five or ten years if they work hard.
My kids will be fine. They just don't know that yet.
Interesting comments from Paul Mason on Newsnight who I think to be fair has been quite bullish about Lab prospects from the start of the campaign:
1) He always thought it would be quite easy for Lab to get up to 35% by gathering all votes from the left. But then much harder to go much higher as that requires centrist votes.
2) He thinks big problem for Lab could well be piling up large numbers of extra votes in seats they win anyway - ie much less efficient votes to seats efficiency.
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
To avoid national bankruptcy from Gordon Brown's legacy.
Normality can resume once the deficit is gone, how you think that will happen with Corbynism is beyond me.
You mean the global financial crisis that started in America and from which the economy was recovering when Labour left office, only for George Osborne to flatline it. Brown was, of course, the last Chancellor to run a surplus, and Labour has had more budget surpluses than the Conservatives since the war.
Of course Brown was - he fecked the country so badly we will take decades to recover.
Now, remind me what year Brown last managed a surplus in - of course even that is shit because of all the PFI going on behind the scenes - which hurt the NHS in terms of funding longer term.
some GPs get paid a stupid amount of money for not doing much in reality compared to other jobs.
Two of my close relatives are GPs, neither of them make more than 50K despite working their nuts off for 12 hrs a day because the practise only has half the doctors it should, they cater to a sink estate in rural England where they are able to sell nothing more than a very basic service. GPs in better off areas that are able to offer extra services do nicely.
I thought GP salaries let alone any other incomes were far higher than £50k.
Many GPs are partners in their GP practice and share in the profit or loss of the practice - rather than salaried employees of the business.
But it seems that fewer GPs want to be partners nowadays and there is a trend towards becoming salaried GPs so as to be able to go home after seeing their allotted 30 patients in the day without any responsibilty for running the business.
This trend may be because 50% of doctors are women, some of whom see themselves as having spilt responsibilities between family and the practice.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
£12k is under the minimum wage for a full time worker, he needs to have a chat with his employer!
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
Hmm. It is and has always been difficult. Bright children of bright parents should be able to target a good job.
I don't want to dwell on your children but there are plenty of professions that will put well educated people on six figure salaries after five or ten years if they work hard.
My kids will be fine. They just don't know that yet.
Andrew Cooper is spot on in that tweet. If Corbyn does acutally manage to get the DNVs out to vote then all bets are off (so to speak).
I however am still on the DNVs will DNV train.
Whilst I agree with you, it should be remembered that's what Lord Cooper said before the EU ref and made him confident that Remain would win by 10-20%.
After I brilliantly and insightfully identified that US polling screens would be hiding a Trump surge in the mid western rust belt states and then ignored my own advice and backed Hilary I have become incredibly cautious and second guessy about everything.
I've become a lot less certain that DNVs will continue to not vote.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
Yet recruitment for engineering jobs in South Yorkshire isn't easy.
In particular for anything which requires college level qualifications for £25k plus.
And eighteen year olds can get shop floor apprenticeships which lead to becoming qualified welders in three years earning over £20k basic.
There does seem to be an imbalance between skills and opportunities and what people want to do and what and where the jobs are.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
£12k is under the minimum wage for a full time worker, he needs to have a chat with his employer!
The rapid downward social mobility within SO's family is sadly commonplace in modern Britain.
One thing that mystified me is the claims, not even two weeks ago, that Labour were gloomy and looking at 140 seats. Fast forward a fortnight and there is talk, albeit panicked, of hung parliaments and the like. You don't go from 140 seats to HP in 5 years, let alone a fortnight. It's either that criminal levels of expectation management were in play or the result will make all the closing in talk look very silly. It's not both. People do not change their minds en masse like this, ever.it was either always close, or never has been,
**Puts tin foil hat on**
Momentun talked about trying to influence the betting markets with a deluge of money placed on Corbyn to become next PM.
I've mentioned this before, but nobody has given a satisfactory answer to these questions -
Is it possible for pollsters to be gamed? Could tens of thousands of people sign up to YouGov (or anyone else) and influence the polls to favour one party? Is it possible with phone pollsters? Do the pollsters have systems and checks to stop this happening?
Everyone keeps saying Labour have signed up hundreds of thousands of new members because of Corbyn, we all know they are pretty fanatical in their support of him, and I guess would do just about anything at all to see him become PM. So is it beyond the realms of possibilty that they could have signed up in recent weeks, which would partially explain the eye watering narrowing of the polls over such a short period of time?
Or are the public ready to embrace a completely different economic model that has been in place for the best part of 40 years?
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
"What part of..." Yawn! That's rarely how causation works. Mill's methods.
It's not suggested that Briish intervention abroad is the only cause of Islamic extremism, or that it led to the creation of ISIS. But it is clearly true that our habit of intervening in one Middle East country after another and then leaving a divided a warring country to get on with it (cf. Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya) has greatly helped ISIS and Al Qaeda attract new recruits. The idea that we should intervene elsewhere merely if Mr Trump asks us to, which is current Government policy (according to Boris, explicitly citing Mrs May), is simply bonkers.
Isn't the implication that if we do less intervention we'll be on the receiving end of less terrorism?
If we do something we get attacked
If we don't we get attacked.
People need to smell the coffee here.
Of course Iraq was a huge mistake but lets not pretend that this is about Iraq.
When was the last time a governing party increased its share of the vote for the second time in a row? It look almost certain the Tories will achieve that feat on 8th June.
Corbyn campaigning in that crucial marginal Hackney South. Brave.
But getting coverage nationwide.
Kicking a football about whilst the PM chairs emergency meetings about our security, whilst he is probed about blaming us for it all.
She would not be chairing emergency meetings if she had been doing her job for the last seven years.
That's one view. Of course Corbyn himself says that terror attacks will always get through and you can't prevent them all, although we apparently are to withdraw from the world and accept the murder of children as a consequence of how beastly everything is. And that it's our own fault anyway. He's a scumbag facilitator and he knows it.
Or the salesman on commission will sell you anything and everything irrespective of your needs or pocket in order to gain his/her commission. I do not know if that is generally the case but it is equally plausible. My experiences in (household name whitegood store)s is generally different from yours.
I dont see a problem with a saleman trying to sell me any of his products, that's his job. If he is obnoxious about it, well there are plenty of other shops that might want my custom Similarly I am willing to be upsold within reason, but it needs to be a useful value proposition, like an appliance that uses less electricity so is cheaper in the long run.
Interesting comments from Paul Mason on Newsnight who I think to be fair has been quite bullish about Lab prospects from the start of the campaign:
1) He always thought it would be quite easy for Lab to get up to 35% by gathering all votes from the left. But then much harder to go much higher as that requires centrist votes.
2) He thinks big problem for Lab could well be piling up large numbers of extra votes in seats they win anyway - ie much less efficient votes to seats efficiency.
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
To avoid national bankruptcy from Gordon Brown's legacy.
Normality can resume once the deficit is gone, how you think that will happen with Corbynism is beyond me.
You mean the global financial crisis that started in America and from which the economy was recovering when Labour left office, only for George Osborne to flatline it. Brown was, of course, the last Chancellor to run a surplus, and Labour has had more budget surpluses than the Conservatives since the war.
Gordon Brown's "recovery" was sustainable? Who knew.....
Any fool knows the magic money tree will provide for us all.
An inevitable consequence of the narrowing Conservative lead over Labour must surely be an increase in turnout as the Great British Public wake up to the fact that their vote could really make a difference .... as if! There's stand-out value in the this market where those nice folk at BetwaySports are offering odds of 6/5 (or 2.2 decimal) that turnout exceeds 63%. This compares with Paddy Power's odds of 4/7 (or 1.5714 and Hills' 8/13 (or 1.6154) for the same bet. Put another way the profit opportunity available from Betway is 110% and 95% better than is being offered respectively by these other leading bookies. I can't imagine these odds will last once a few PBers get to grips with this tempter! As ever, DYOR!
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
So things are not working right now, well paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream - and they do have a point - yet Brexit will mess things up for them ???
Things are already messed up for them.
As they see it, Brexit restricts their opportunities.
You mean it restricts what they want to think of as their opportunities.
Anyone with useful skills and the right mentality will be able to work in the EU - just as they can work in North America or Australasia or in even stranger places.
What Brexit will do is give some people an excuse - "I would have been a big international success but Brexit stopped it."
The inconvenient truth for people in affluent countries is that if you can't succeed at home you're not likely to succeed anywhere else.
But for all our moaning about the state of Britain we should remember how very fortunate we are to have been born in this country and (in the case of the majority of PBers) into nice, middle class families.
That's not true, Richard, and I can give you no better example than that of my son,
He has for a number of years now been working near Newbury for a private company that specialises in research into certain aspects of global warming. The EU was its biggest client and since Brexit it has been downsizing in preparation for a quiet but orderly liquidation. My son's employment there will end soon and he's been looking around for alternative employment. He will have no difficulty, because he is young, well-qualified and able, but it is unlikely to be in this country or the EU. The greatest likelihood is he will go to the the Far East or Australasia, which is fine apart from making it a little more difficult to visit him.
I asked him why the EU was out of the question and he said the way it works is that you part together research proposals with equally well-qualified colleagues and they like to see the names of EU nationals on the list. He is therefore less than an asset in that respect. It's not exactly blackballing; it's perfectly reasonable in fact. It's just tough for him.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
£12k is under the minimum wage for a full time worker, he needs to have a chat with his employer!
He can't get full-time.
What skillset does he have? There are loads of opportunities out there. I know a guy who joined BIB as I was leaving who had come from two call centres and a couple of sales jobs without a degree but a willingness to learn and work hard. Not the best paid job iirc, but a foot in the door at one of Europe's biggest investment banks, I don't know how he is getting on now, but I'd like to think he is doing well.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
Indeed. We have full employment and I was talking to a friend who works in the railway infrastructure rolling stock maintenance business and they are desperate to find suitable staff. Huge amount of competition pushing up wages. He quoted one 21 year old girl earning £40k per year with bonuses etc added in. Everyone there at the time was amazed - but that is the real world
ie she is young and well paid and there are more jobs like it. In other words, SO and his children are talking bollocks
But then again all socialists just want money on a plate so they can piss it up the wall.
Some of examples of in safe Tory seats where tory vote is over 50%, ukip second. You have to wonder what % of the vote the tories will get in these kind of seats and where the drop off will be for them to have a vote share of 45%.
Corbyn campaigning in that crucial marginal Hackney South. Brave.
But getting coverage nationwide.
Kicking a football about whilst the PM chairs emergency meetings about our security, whilst he is probed about blaming us for it all.
She would not be chairing emergency meetings if she had been doing her job for the last seven years.
That's one view. Of course Corbyn himself says that terror attacks will always get through and you can't prevent them all, although we apparently are to withdraw from the world and accept the murder of children as a consequence of how beastly everything is. And that it's our own fault anyway. He's a scumbag facilitator and he knows it.
She should have been getting on with the day job rather than scheming behind the scenes. .
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
Yet recruitment for engineering jobs in South Yorkshire isn't easy.
In particular for anything which requires college level qualifications for £25k plus.
And eighteen year olds can get shop floor apprenticeships which lead to becoming qualified welders in three years earning over £20k basic.
There does seem to be an imbalance between skills and opportunities and what people want to do and what and where the jobs are.
I know. My nephew, who did not go to university, is an electrician and earns good money.
My kids will be absolutely fine. They will find opportunities and will take them. But you try telling them that!! And given how Corbyn polls among the young, clearly they are not alone.
One thing that mystified me is the claims, not even two weeks ago, that Labour were gloomy and looking at 140 seats. Fast forward a fortnight and there is talk, albeit panicked, of hung parliaments and the like. You don't go from 140 seats to HP in 5 years, let alone a fortnight. It's either that criminal levels of expectation management were in play or the result will make all the closing in talk look very silly. It's not both. People do not change their minds en masse like this, ever.it was either always close, or never has been,
**Puts tin foil hat on**
Momentun talked about trying to influence the betting markets with a deluge of money placed on Corbyn to become next PM.
I've mentioned this before, but nobody has given a satisfactory answer to these questions -
Is it possible for pollsters to be gamed? Could tens of thousands of people sign up to YouGov (or anyone else) and influence the polls to favour one party? Is it possible with phone pollsters? Do the pollsters have systems and checks to stop this happening?
Everyone keeps saying Labour have signed up hundreds of thousands of new members because of Corbyn, we all know they are pretty fanatical in their support of him, and I guess would do just about anything at all to see him become PM. So is it beyond the realms of possibilty that they could have signed up in recent weeks, which would partially explain the eye watering narrowing of the polls over such a short period of time?
Or are the public ready to embrace a completely different economic model that has been in place for the best part of 40 years?
I don't know, genuinely. Does anyone?
During SindyRef YouGov closed signups to it's panel when they detected a wave.
Mr. 64, not sure there's a market on Raikkonen being top 2, but I'd put the odds at around 2.2. Maybe shorter.
Vettel's almost nailed on for one.
thanks. too late for that but I agree Kimi should be shorter than Lewis. Coral have him kimi at 15/2 (e/w third odds top 2). so £1 e/w would return 3.50 if he came second if my maths is correct.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
The consequences of the untrammeled immigration that you support.
No - much more about the mass-mechanisation and digitisation I support.
I suspect we all might disagree about the reasons, but you are right that the young have been screwed over so hard and the I'm All Right Jacks don't see how much damage is being done. The support for Corbyn amongst the young, no matter how misguided, is totally understandable.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
The consequences of the untrammeled immigration that you support.
No - much more about the mass-mechanisation and digitisation I support.
I suspect we all might disagree about the reasons, but you are right that the young have been screwed over so hard and the I'm All Right Jacks don't see how much damage is being done. The support for Corbyn among the young, no matter how misguided, is totally understandable.
Low levels of home ownership among the under 40s is easily the biggest threat to the Tory party. It's why I've always been so against private renting.
Andrew Cooper is spot on in that tweet. If Corbyn does acutally manage to get the DNVs out to vote then all bets are off (so to speak).
I however am still on the DNVs will DNV train.
I don't see how there is going to be a surge of non voters when even the EURef only had a turnoutof 72%, yes this was higher then the 67% at the previous GE but compare that to Scotland that that went from 64% to 85% in indy Ref and 71% in the following GE.
71/85*100= 84% of Indy ref turnout, now let's do this for EURef and this GE:
84% of 72=60.48% turnout i.e. a FALL in turnout in the following election! O.K so I suspect the proportion of people to vote in this GE will be larger than 84% of Euref voters but the Labour surge is simply not realistic.
Corbyn campaigning in that crucial marginal Hackney South. Brave.
But getting coverage nationwide.
Kicking a football about whilst the PM chairs emergency meetings about our security, whilst he is probed about blaming us for it all.
She would not be chairing emergency meetings if she had been doing her job for the last seven years.
That's one view. Of course Corbyn himself says that terror attacks will always get through and you can't prevent them all, although we apparently are to withdraw from the world and accept the murder of children as a consequence of how beastly everything is. And that it's our own fault anyway. He's a scumbag facilitator and he knows it.
She should have been getting on with the day job rather than scheming behind the scenes. .
C. Ruth Davidson.
Yes, if only she'd phoned the GM police and asked them for an update on that terrible Abedi person.
One thing that mystified me is the claims, not even two weeks ago, that Labour were gloomy and looking at 140 seats. Fast forward a fortnight and there is talk, albeit panicked, of hung parliaments and the like. You don't go from 140 seats to HP in 5 years, let alone a fortnight. It's either that criminal levels of expectation management were in play or the result will make all the closing in talk look very silly. It's not both. People do not change their minds en masse like this, ever.it was either always close, or never has been,
**Puts tin foil hat on**
Momentun talked about trying to influence the betting markets with a deluge of money placed on Corbyn to become next PM.
I've mentioned this before, but nobody has given a satisfactory answer to these questions -
Is it possible for pollsters to be gamed? Could tens of thousands of people sign up to YouGov (or anyone else) and influence the polls to favour one party? Is it possible with phone pollsters? Do the pollsters have systems and checks to stop this happening?
Everyone keeps saying Labour have signed up hundreds of thousands of new members because of Corbyn, we all know they are pretty fanatical in their support of him, and I guess would do just about anything at all to see him become PM. So is it beyond the realms of possibilty that they could have signed up in recent weeks, which would partially explain the eye watering narrowing of the polls over such a short period of time?
Or are the public ready to embrace a completely different economic model that has been in place for the best part of 40 years?
I don't know, genuinely. Does anyone?
During SindyRef YouGov closed signups to it's panel when they detected a wave.
Influencing YouGov would have to be very well organised ahead of time. You'd have to get people to sign up progressively across a period of time, taking the trouble to fill in a fair few surveys about television viewing and petfood buying in order to establish a track record as reliable panel members, and when asked be sure to report your past voting behaviour as something other than Labour. Then they all wait patiently for an election to come along and for the instruction to change current voting intention to Labour.
Could it be done? Yes. Has it been done? Unlikely. And, besides, the effect would solely be to put Yougov out of line with other pollsters. Even of the online pollsters, Yougov is the only one that is relatively easy to sign up to.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
Indeed. We have full employment and I was talking to a friend who works in the railway infrastructure rolling stock maintenance business and they are desperate to find suitable staff. Huge amount of competition pushing up wages. He quoted one 21 year old girl earning £40k per year with bonuses etc added in. Everyone there at the time was amazed - but that is the real world
ie she is young and well paid and there are more jobs like it. In other words, SO and his children are talking bollocks
But then again all socialists just want money on a plate so they can piss it up the wall.
Yep, that's right. Don't let the fact that I worked all hours as one of the founders of a business that now employs close to 30 people and has a turnover in excess of £5 million a year get in the way of your prejudices, you silly little person.
Mr. 64, not sure there's a market on Raikkonen being top 2, but I'd put the odds at around 2.2. Maybe shorter.
Vettel's almost nailed on for one.
thanks. too late for that but I agree Kimi should be shorter than Lewis. Coral have him kimi at 15/2 (e/w third odds top 2). so £1 e/w would return 3.50 if he came second if my maths is correct.
Indeed it would return £3.50, but deducting your £2.00 stake money, your net profit would be a modest £1.50, equivalent to odds of 3/4 or 1.75 ... not terribly exciting therefore imho.
As they see it, Brexit restricts their opportunities.
You mean it restricts what they want to think of as their opportunities.
Anyone with useful skills and the right mentality will be able to work in the EU - just as they can work in North America or Australasia or in even stranger places.
What Brexit will do is give some people an excuse - "I would have been a big international success but Brexit stopped it."
The inconvenient truth for people in affluent countries is that if you can't succeed at home you're not likely to succeed anywhere else.
But for all our moaning about the state of Britain we should remember how very fortunate we are to have been born in this country and (in the case of the majority of PBers) into nice, middle class families.
That's not true, Richard, and I can give you no better example than that of my son,
He has for a number of years now been working near Newbury for a private company that specialises in research into certain aspects of global warming. The EU was its biggest client and since Brexit it has been downsizing in preparation for a quiet but orderly liquidation. My son's employment there will end soon and he's been looking around for alternative employment. He will have no difficulty, because he is young, well-qualified and able, but it is unlikely to be in this country or the EU. The greatest likelihood is he will go to the the Far East or Australasia, which is fine apart from making it a little more difficult to visit him.
I asked him why the EU was out of the question and he said the way it works is that you part together research proposals with equally well-qualified colleagues and they like to see the names of EU nationals on the list. He is therefore less than an asset in that respect. It's not exactly blackballing; it's perfectly reasonable in fact. It's just tough for him.
Actually I'd say that's a rather bigoted mentality of those EU companies and one not shared by the equivalents in the Far East and Australasia.
Perhaps we have a different mindset in this country and don't view people from around the world as being fundamentally different to those from Europe. All foreigners are equal so to speak and treat everyone as an individual.
To be honest that rather makes me happier to be leaving such a narrow minded EU club.
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
He senses a shot at power, and Downing Street is "worth a mass".
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
Indeed. We have full employment and I was talking to a friend who works in the railway infrastructure rolling stock maintenance business and they are desperate to find suitable staff. Huge amount of competition pushing up wages. He quoted one 21 year old girl earning £40k per year with bonuses etc added in. Everyone there at the time was amazed - but that is the real world
ie she is young and well paid and there are more jobs like it. In other words, SO and his children are talking bollocks
But then again all socialists just want money on a plate so they can piss it up the wall.
Yep, that's right. Don't let the fact that I worked all hours as one of the founders of a business that now employs close to 30 people and has a turnover in excess of £5 million a year get in the way of your prejudices, you silly little person.
Can't you give your pauperized son a job in your thriving enterprise ?
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
He senses a shot at power, and Downing Street is "worth a mass".
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
Theresa May is a very poor leader at a time when we need a very good one. The scary part is that Corbyn would be worse. Bring back Dave!
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
A well-pad job that puts them on the property ladder or even gives them the freedom to rent and save a bit of money at the same time. There are not many of them around. I earned more at his age in the early 90s (£15,000 pa) than he does now (£12,000 pa). If there are loads of opportunities, they just don't see them. I have told all three of mine that they are better off working for themselves and building something, and that is what my eldest is now trying to do. But it involves doing a lot of stuff for free in his spare time and trying to create a brand. It'll pay off and he will be fine, but when you are doing it on top of a poorly paid, boring job, and having to live at home with a mountain of debt on your head things do not always look great. The young lack experience and context, as we all know; but from where I sit it seems to me that I had it a whole lot easier than my three do now.
Yet recruitment for engineering jobs in South Yorkshire isn't easy.
In particular for anything which requires college level qualifications for £25k plus.
And eighteen year olds can get shop floor apprenticeships which lead to becoming qualified welders in three years earning over £20k basic.
There does seem to be an imbalance between skills and opportunities and what people want to do and what and where the jobs are.
I'm tempted to quote Norman Tebbitt at this point.
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
He senses a shot at power, and Downing Street is "worth a mass".
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
Just ironic that the Tories kick-started the 'surge' by ham-fistedly trying to hit the oldies?
2) He thinks big problem for Lab could well be piling up large numbers of extra votes in seats they win anyway - ie much less efficient votes to seats efficiency.
The idea that all of Labour's improvement is down to younger voters and "metropolitan" areas (thus meaning they would just "pile up" votes in safe seats) isn't really borne out by the evidence. Look at Wales -- that has very few truly "metropolitan" areas, and has a higher average age than any English region, yet the latest YouGov from Wales shows Labour up considerably on 2015. Also subsamples this past week have generally been giving Labour healthy leads in the North again.
While Labour has made improvements with pretty much every group, there's lots to suggest that they're making especially sharp improvements with their white working-class "traditional" voters, who they were struggling with so much at the beginning of the campaign.
If this were "the Brexit election", you could imagine many UKIP voters who had previously voted Labour switching to the Tories as "the Brexit party". But if my auntie were my uncle she'd have a pair of knackers. It isn't and it won't become the Brexit election. That was Theresa May's big mistake.
Is Theresa the new Edward Heath?
Are you suggesting Tim Farron might be a new Jeremy Thorpe?
Such a suggestion is, personally, probably actionable! Although it doesn’t (yet) feel like it, Liberal/Liberal Democrat wise.
Well, it's worth remembering he took over a party with a handful of seats - and lost more.
IIRC under Thorpe the Libs sarted off with a loss (Carmarthen), improved, got hammered in 1970, but then started picking up seats both at by-elections and at the Feb 1974 general ekection.
No ! The Carmarthen by election was in February 1957 in the early days of Jo Grimond's leadership.
Mr. 64, not sure there's a market on Raikkonen being top 2, but I'd put the odds at around 2.2. Maybe shorter.
Vettel's almost nailed on for one.
thanks. too late for that but I agree Kimi should be shorter than Lewis. Coral have him kimi at 15/2 (e/w third odds top 2). so £1 e/w would return 3.50 if he came second if my maths is correct.
Indeed it would return £3.50, but deducting your £2.00 stake money, your net profit would be a modest £1.50, equivalent to odds of 3/4 or 1.75 ... not terribly exciting therefore imho.
not exciting at all. hence no bet for me. I'm running out of liquid funds in my coral account due to election bets. think i'll have to top up on pay day.
On Islam vs Islamism - I think it's a waste of time trying to create a firewall. How is moderate Islam to be described? Normative lslam? There are only different strands of Islam - one of which believes in the use of terrorist violence to change the modern world. If a fundamentalist christian was to blow up an abortion clinic in the US would people desist from calling them a christian? I wouldn't. It's absurd to think that violent actions can only come from a 'phoney' form of a religion. Throughout history violence and religious belief have often gone hand in hand. It's also absurd for non-believers to start lecturing others on what the true form of Christianity or Islam is. As an atheist by definition I don't believe there is such a thing.
1/1000. Maximum stake £5000. Winnings payable in alcohol at the next PB meetup (no change given), assuming it's not on a night when I'm working late and working the next day. Dead heat rules apply.
Corbyn campaigning in that crucial marginal Hackney South. Brave.
But getting coverage nationwide.
Kicking a football about whilst the PM chairs emergency meetings about our security, whilst he is probed about blaming us for it all.
She would not be chairing emergency meetings if she had been doing her job for the last seven years.
That's one view. Of course Corbyn himself says that terror attacks will always get through and you can't prevent them all, although we apparently are to withdraw from the world and accept the murder of children as a consequence of how beastly everything is. And that it's our own fault anyway. He's a scumbag facilitator and he knows it.
She should have been getting on with the day job rather than scheming behind the scenes. .
C. Ruth Davidson.
Yes, if only she'd phoned the GM police and asked them for an update on that terrible Abedi person.
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
He senses a shot at power, and Downing Street is "worth a mass".
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
Theresa May is a very poor leader at a time when we need a very good one. The scary part is that Corbyn would be worse. Bring back Dave!
Theresa May's 'Best PM' ratings are better than Cameron's were.
I'm not sure why they are being dismissed as dodgy, they were the best pollster at the 2015 election and, AIUI, middle of the pack at the referendum last year.
They are not members of the BPC. Do not weight variables properly. Just hopes a large sample will sort things out.
9% for Greens looks absurdly high. They're best ignored - not quite a voodoo poll but not much better.
Its 9% for Others - so at least 4% of that would be for the SNP.
Indeed - most polls are showing 8% or 9% for "Others", approximately comprising 4.5% SNP. 2.5% Greens, 1.0% Plaid, 1% Assorted others = 9%
Corbyn campaigning in that crucial marginal Hackney South. Brave.
But getting coverage nationwide.
Kicking a football about whilst the PM chairs emergency meetings about our security, whilst he is probed about blaming us for it all.
She would not be chairing emergency meetings if she had been doing her job for the last seven years.
That's one view. Of course Corbyn himself says that terror attacks will always get through and you can't prevent them all, although we apparently are to withdraw from the world and accept the murder of children as a consequence of how beastly everything is. And that it's our own fault anyway. He's a scumbag facilitator and he knows it.
She should have been getting on with the day job rather than scheming behind the scenes. .
C. Ruth Davidson.
Yes, if only she'd phoned the GM police and asked them for an update on that terrible Abedi person.
A lot less GM police than there were 7 years ago.
True. Of course if it were just a question of numbers we'd have a Bobby each
The newly elected Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, said he did not agree with Corbyn’s interpretation of the influence of foreign policy on terrorism. “I have a different view to Jeremy on this,” he told TalkRadio. “9/11 happened before any interventions overseas, and the ideology was in existence before that … The people who committed this appalling act are responsible for it, 100%.”
Burnham said radical Islamists had “used things” to justify violence. “We didn’t create it. [There’s] a tendency to blame governments for everything, and I don’t think we should.”
Low levels of home ownership among the under 40s is easily the biggest threat to the Tory party. It's why I've always been so against private renting.
It's a thought that's occurred to me as well.
Though I assumed it wouldn't bite the Tories on the backside for another ten years or so, when the current lot of twenty somethings are approaching forty and still living in rented accommodation.
The young vote Corbyn because they feel as if they have no future, no ability to settle down, start a family, save for the future. To them the system is utterly broken.
But now the middle aged are also deserting the Tories because even if the dementia tax is u turned on, the message can't be taken back: the Tories think the house you were expecting to inherit is fair gain.
Could Corbyn win with a coalition of those unable to get on the property ladder and those peeved off that the house they expected to inherit they now expect to be taken away?
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
He senses a shot at power, and Downing Street is "worth a mass".
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
Theresa May is a very poor leader at a time when we need a very good one. The scary part is that Corbyn would be worse. Bring back Dave!
Theresa May's 'Best PM' ratings are better than Cameron's were.
It still doesn't mean she's good at the job. She's bungled the easiest election in post war history.
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
He senses a shot at power, and Downing Street is "worth a mass".
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
Theresa May is a very poor leader at a time when we need a very good one. The scary part is that Corbyn would be worse. Bring back Dave!
I agree with this whole heartedly. May is awful, and Corbyn is deranged. I am actually starting to worry a little even if the Tories hold on. May's not the PM I thought she would be, and Corbyn's apparent surge is proof of that.
I can't believe for one second Cameron and Osborne would have allowed that ludicrous Labour manifesto to have gone more or less completely unscrutinised. There wouldn't have been the social care fiasco either. And Cameron didn't even have to seriously try to eviscerate Corbyn at PMQs.
So depressing that someone as obscure and as mad as Corbyn could become our PM.
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
He senses a shot at power, and Downing Street is "worth a mass".
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
Theresa May is a very poor leader at a time when we need a very good one. The scary part is that Corbyn would be worse. Bring back Dave!
Theresa May's 'Best PM' ratings are better than Cameron's were.
It still doesn't mean she's good at the job. She's bungled the easiest election in post war history.
Well, technically, she's bungled the polls. We can't judge if she's bungled the election till it happens.
As they see it, Brexit restricts their opportunities.
You mean it restricts what they want to think of as their opportunities.
Anyone with useful skills and the right mentality will be able to work in the EU - just as they can work in North America or Australasia or in even stranger places.
What Brexit will do is give some people an excuse - "I would have been a big international success but Brexit stopped it."
The inconvenient truth for people in affluent countries is that if you can't succeed at home you're not likely to succeed anywhere else.
But for all our moaning about the state of Britain we should remember how very fortunate we are to have been born in this country and (in the case of the majority of PBers) into nice, middle class families.
That's not true, Richard, and I can give you no better example than that of my son,
He has for a number of years now been working near Newbury for a private company that o to the the Far East or Australasia, which is fine apart from making it a little more difficult to visit him.
I asked him why the EU was out of the question and he said the way it works is that you part together research proposals with equally well-qualified colleagues and they like to see the names of EU nationals on the list. He is therefore less than an asset in that respect. It's not exactly blackballing; it's perfectly reasonable in fact. It's just tough for him.
Actually I'd say that's a rather bigoted mentality of those EU companies and one not shared by the equivalents in the Far East and Australasia.
Perhaps we have a different mindset in this country and don't view people from around the world as being fundamentally different to those from Europe. All foreigners are equal so to speak and treat everyone as an individual.
To be honest that rather makes me happier to be leaving such a narrow minded EU club.
But, of course, all the best luck to your son.
I don't think it's bigoted, and more important nor does he. The EU is supplying funds, big funds. It's perfectly reasonable that they should show a preference for candidates within the EU.
There are also the practical question of freedom of movement work visas and the like.
Anyway I wasn't suggesting that Brexit was wrong because it buggered up my son's career, just illustrating how wrong some of your assumptions could be.
Low levels of home ownership among the under 40s is easily the biggest threat to the Tory party. It's why I've always been so against private renting.
I have never quite followed this arguement. House prices are high because more people want houses, than there are houses available (within a given locale). Stopping private renting doesnt increase the supply of houses. At best you have the same number of houses with the same number of people chasing them, they are just all owners this time, which the less well off being squeezed out to cheaper areas.
If you are a 25 year old in the South East on 25k a year you wont be able to get an mortgage on anything, so you rent (probably with friends) or live at home. If all the rents are stopped and a lot of rental properties go on the market the prices will drop a bit, but not for long given the demand in the South East, and the price drop wont put them in reach of the 25 year old in anycase, so now they have to live at home if they can, or move out the area to somewhere cheaper, which wont make them very happy.
Surely that answer is to build a (lot) more houses, or reduce the demand, which practically means stopping enough people to fill a city the size of Sheffield arriving every couple of years.
Attack line to polling day should be Theresa Mays record as home secretary. 1) Police numbers went down. Her fault. 2) Immigration never went down under her watch. Her fault. 3) We don't know who is coming in or going out, where they went who they met. Theresa May was hoe secretary for 7 years and we don't have laws in place to deal with suspicious terrorists. 4) She voted to remain not to leave. 5) She said we would not have an election, she changed her mind. 6) She said there would be no care gap, then she said there would. 7) Theresa May is a weather vain.
Low levels of home ownership among the under 40s is easily the biggest threat to the Tory party. It's why I've always been so against private renting.
It's a thought that's occurred to me as well.
Though I assumed it wouldn't bite the Tories on the backside for another ten years or so, when the current lot of twenty somethings are approaching forty and still living in rented accommodation.
The young vote Corbyn because they feel as if they have no future, no ability to settle down, start a family, save for the future. To them the system is utterly broken.
But now the middle aged are also deserting the Tories because even if the dementia tax is u turned on, the message can't be taken back: the Tories think the house you were expecting to inherit is fair gain.
Could Corbyn win with a coalition of those unable to get on the property ladder and those peeved off that the house they expected to inherit they now expect to be taken away?
It suddenly seems very possible.
A massive tax on second property ownership is what is needed to get owner occupied rates up. I mean massive, 10% of the value or something along those lines.
On Islam vs Islamism - I think it's a waste of time trying to create a firewall. How is moderate Islam to be described? Normative lslam? There are only different strands of Islam - one of which believes in the use of terrorist violence to change the modern world. If a fundamentalist christian was to blow up an abortion clinic in the US would people desist from calling them a christian? I wouldn't. It's absurd to think that violent actions can only come from a 'phoney' form of a religion. Throughout history violence and religious belief have often gone hand in hand. It's also absurd for non-believers to start lecturing others on what the true form of Christianity or Islam is. As an atheist by definition I don't believe there is such a thing.
As another atheist I suggest we have to face the world as it is, whilst working meanwhile for a better one. Trying to tar millions of innocent people with a very broad brush achieves nothing good and the downsides are obvious.
Despite Manchester we all recognise how much better our own security services have done than in France and Belgium, where the muslim communities are more marginalised and deprived than are ours. Two muslims previously phoned in to report Abedi as a potential risk; we need to make this sort of cross-community co-operation more rather than less likely.
As I posted yesterday, all three of my kids are Corbynistas - much to their Dad's distress. My daughter even tried to put a Labour poster up in our front window. They feel - quite rightly - that things are not working right now, that well-paid jobs and leaving home, let alone owning their own places, are a pipedream. They see Brexit as the old messing things up for the young. The political establishment has let them down big time. And Corbyn is definitely not the political establishment. They will vote for him.
Why is a well paid job a pipe dream for your children? Or why do they think it is?
Indeed. We have full employment and I was talking to a friend who works in the railway infrastructure rolling stock maintenance business and they are desperate to find suitable staff. Huge amount of competition pushing up wages. He quoted one 21 year old girl earning £40k per year with bonuses etc added in. Everyone there at the time was amazed - but that is the real world
ie she is young and well paid and there are more jobs like it. In other words, SO and his children are talking bollocks
But then again all socialists just want money on a plate so they can piss it up the wall.
This anecdote is not representative. You don't understand the problem. Of course, some industries are an exception. I earned £31 k in my first year out of uni. Lots of my colleagues then, a decade later are on 100k plus. But of all my contemporaries at my (Russell group, redbrick) university, I am a minority. Many are on £20 - £30k, if they got around to getting a proper job. But that isn't enough to get a house in most parts of the South East, so in reality they are effectively excluded from society and have no underlying stability in their lives. This is the basis for Corbyn's popularity, people feel that they have nothing to lose, and that something has to change, the whole establishment has to be turned upside down. We may be the winners, but we are also a minority, so there is a lot to be scared of whatever happens in this election. I was talking to a colleague, he is in his twenties, multilingual and we have many of the same interests. He is on an apprentice contract earning a third of what I am earning, and he knows that it is going to end in October, with no certain future. You can turn your nose up at people like this if you want, but I think that would be quite foolish.
The mystery of the disappearing Tory campaign continues.
Nothing at all so far about Corbyn's plan to hand back lots of power to the unions.
No downside in banging on about that for the tories is there? No votes to lose and plenty of waverers to gain I would have thought
The crapness of the tories is depressing. 50 seat majority still though, but then with the lack of talent on display, especially May, I expect a moderate to dismal 5 years being largely inept followed by a left wing Labour government just in time to make me unemployed in my late 40s
As they see it, Brexit restricts their opportunities.
You mean it restricts what they want to think of as their opportunities.
Anyone with useful skills and the right mentality will be able to work in the EU - just as they can work in North America or Australasia or in even stranger places.
What Brexit will do is give some people an excuse - "I would have been a big international success but Brexit stopped it."
The inconvenient truth for people in affluent countries is that if you can't succeed at home you're not likely to succeed anywhere else.
But for all our moaning about the state of Britain we should remember how very fortunate we are to have been born in this country and (in the case of the majority of PBers) into nice, middle class families.
That's not true, Richard, and I can give you no better example than that of my son,
He has for a number of years now been working near Newbury for a private company that specialises in research into certain aspects of global warming. The EU was its biggest client and since Brexit it has been downsizing in preparation for a quiet but orderly liquidation. My son's employment there will end soon and he's been looking around for alternative employment. He will have no difficulty, because he is young, well-qualified and able, but it is unlikely to be in this country or the EU. The greatest likelihood is he will go to the the Far East or Australasia, which is fine apart from making it a little more difficult to visit him.
I asked him why the EU was out of the question and he said the way it works is that you part together research proposals with equally well-qualified colleagues and they like to see the names of EU nationals on the list. He is therefore less than an asset in that respect. It's not exactly blackballing; it's perfectly reasonable in fact. It's just tough for him.
Actually I'd say that's a rather bigoted mentality of those EU companies and one not shared by the equivalents in the Far East and Australasia.
Perhaps we have a different mindset in this country and don't view people from around the world as being fundamentally different to those from Europe. All foreigners are equal so to speak and treat everyone as an individual.
To be honest that rather makes me happier to be leaving such a narrow minded EU club.
But, of course, all the best luck to your son.
Pretty much every state entity - of which the EU is one - engages in a degree of protection. Of course post-Brexit the government will be able to pursue a more 'made in Britain' approach. How that will work out is anyone's guess.
It's an interesting thread and could be significant if indicative of wider thought on the far left. What he says about Labour centrists is particularly notable, given that just a few weeks back he was in the deselect them all camp.
He senses a shot at power, and Downing Street is "worth a mass".
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
Theresa May is a very poor leader at a time when we need a very good one. The scary part is that Corbyn would be worse. Bring back Dave!
I agree with this whole heartedly. May is awful, and Corbyn is deranged. I am actually starting to worry a little even if the Tories hold on. May's not the PM I thought she would be, and Corbyn's apparent surge is proof of that.
I can't believe for one second Cameron and Osborne would have allowed that ludicrous Labour manifesto to have gone more or less completely unscrutinised. There wouldn't have been the social care fiasco either. And Cameron didn't even have to seriously try to eviscerate Corbyn at PMQs.
So depressing that someone as obscure and as mad as Corbyn could become our PM.
Indeed. And yet the LibDems can't get a look in. So add Farron to the line-up of let-downs and lunatics.
1: Most prior polls have had Others on 1% and so that is a rounding error away from 0%. 2: There are no "others" nowadays. UKIP, SNP and Greens are no longer considered Others on that list anymore when they used to be. There's only Plaid Cymru of the proper British parties that are left in the Others category and they're not going to get 1%
Comments
Many who go to university are poorly educated.
But don't worry Mrs May will prevail!
I don't want to dwell on your children but there are plenty of professions that will put well educated people on six figure salaries after five or ten years if they work hard.
I do not know if that is generally the case but it is equally plausible.
My experiences in (household name whitegood store)s is generally different from yours.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/868406577958727680
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/868407026413600768
This is quite a turnaround by Mason.
So the comparison is probably 16pts to say 8pts at the moment.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4546986/Russian-ties-former-Trump-aide-wants-immunity-testimony-NYT.html#ixzz4iH51tvr6
Iraq was a HUGE mistake, a party lied to us to justify that- and they did exactly what that nice Mr Bush wanted.
Remind us of your voting on the lead up to war and the need for an enquiry.
Now, remind me what year Brown last managed a surplus in - of course even that is shit because of all the PFI going on behind the scenes - which hurt the NHS in terms of funding longer term.
Save the NHS my arse.
Betting PostF1: got bored of waiting, so the pre-qualifying article is now up, with one tip:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/monaco-pre-qualifying-2017.html
But it seems that fewer GPs want to be partners nowadays and there is a trend towards becoming salaried GPs so as to be able to go home after seeing their allotted 30 patients in the day without any responsibilty for running the business.
This trend may be because 50% of doctors are women, some of whom see themselves as having spilt responsibilities between family and the practice.
I've become a lot less certain that DNVs will continue to not vote.
In particular for anything which requires college level qualifications for £25k plus.
And eighteen year olds can get shop floor apprenticeships which lead to becoming qualified welders in three years earning over £20k basic.
There does seem to be an imbalance between skills and opportunities and what people want to do and what and where the jobs are.
Vettel's almost nailed on for one.
Momentun talked about trying to influence the betting markets with a deluge of money placed on Corbyn to become next PM.
I've mentioned this before, but nobody has given a satisfactory answer to these questions -
Is it possible for pollsters to be gamed? Could tens of thousands of people sign up to YouGov (or anyone else) and influence the polls to favour one party? Is it possible with phone pollsters? Do the pollsters have systems and checks to stop this happening?
Everyone keeps saying Labour have signed up hundreds of thousands of new members because of Corbyn, we all know they are pretty fanatical in their support of him, and I guess would do just about anything at all to see him become PM. So is it beyond the realms of possibilty that they could have signed up in recent weeks, which would partially explain the eye watering narrowing of the polls over such a short period of time?
Or are the public ready to embrace a completely different economic model that has been in place for the best part of 40 years?
I don't know, genuinely. Does anyone?
If we don't we get attacked.
People need to smell the coffee here.
Of course Iraq was a huge mistake but lets not pretend that this is about Iraq.
Have got extra helpings of popcorn and beers on standby for #MegaPollingSaturday
Someone WILL have a PB meltdown tonight but who... ?
He's a scumbag facilitator and he knows it.
Well, any Labour chancellor anyway.
***** Betting Post *****
An inevitable consequence of the narrowing Conservative lead over Labour must surely be an increase in turnout as the Great British Public wake up to the fact that their vote could really make a difference .... as if!
There's stand-out value in the this market where those nice folk at BetwaySports are offering odds of 6/5 (or 2.2 decimal) that turnout exceeds 63%. This compares with Paddy Power's odds of 4/7 (or 1.5714 and Hills' 8/13 (or 1.6154) for the same bet.
Put another way the profit opportunity available from Betway is 110% and 95% better than is being offered respectively by these other leading bookies. I can't imagine these odds will last once a few PBers get to grips with this tempter!
As ever, DYOR!
He has for a number of years now been working near Newbury for a private company that specialises in research into certain aspects of global warming. The EU was its biggest client and since Brexit it has been downsizing in preparation for a quiet but orderly liquidation. My son's employment there will end soon and he's been looking around for alternative employment. He will have no difficulty, because he is young, well-qualified and able, but it is unlikely to be in this country or the EU. The greatest likelihood is he will go to the the Far East or Australasia, which is fine apart from making it a little more difficult to visit him.
I asked him why the EU was out of the question and he said the way it works is that you part together research proposals with equally well-qualified colleagues and they like to see the names of EU nationals on the list. He is therefore less than an asset in that respect. It's not exactly blackballing; it's perfectly reasonable in fact. It's just tough for him.
He quoted one 21 year old girl earning £40k per year with bonuses etc added in. Everyone there at the time was amazed - but that is the real world
ie she is young and well paid and there are more jobs like it.
In other words, SO and his children are talking bollocks
But then again all socialists just want money on a plate so they can piss it up the wall.
Conservative: 24185 (51.3%), Labour: 6508 (13.8%), UKIP: 10241 (21.7%)
MAJORITY: 13944 (29.6%)
Aylesbury
Conservative: 28083 (50.7%), Labour: 8391 (15.1%), UKIP: 10925 (19.7%)
MAJORITY: 17158 (31%)
Bexhill/Battle:
Conservative: 30245 (54.8%), Labour: 7797 (14.1%), UKIP: 10170 (18.4%)
MAJORITY: 20075 (36.4%)
Chicester
Conservative: 32953 (57.7%), Labour: 6933 (12.1%), UKIP: 8540 (14.9%)
MAJORITY: 24413 (42.7%)
Arundel
Conservative: 34331 (60.8%), Labour: 6324 (11.2%), UKIP: 8154 (14.4%)
MAJORITY: 26177 (46.3%)
Ashford
Conservative: 30094 (52.5%), Labour: 10580 (18.4%), UKIP: 10798 (18.8%)
MAJORITY: 19296 (33.6%)
Beaconsfield
Conservative: 33621 (63.2%), Labour: 6074 (11.4%), UKIP: 7310 (13.8%)
MAJORITY: 26311 (49.5%)
Some of examples of in safe Tory seats where tory vote is over 50%, ukip second. You have to wonder what % of the vote the tories will get in these kind of seats and where the drop off will be for them to have a vote share of 45%.
C. Ruth Davidson.
Looks like any potential accomplices of Abedi have been identified, or he did indeed act alone.
My kids will be absolutely fine. They will find opportunities and will take them. But you try telling them that!! And given how Corbyn polls among the young, clearly they are not alone.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/868405888717074434
Hoping he can be on the front row. Then his winning (race) price should fall and I can hedge.
Anyway, I must be off.
71/85*100= 84% of Indy ref turnout, now let's do this for EURef and this GE:
84% of 72=60.48% turnout i.e. a FALL in turnout in the following election! O.K so I suspect the proportion of people to vote in this GE will be larger than 84% of Euref voters but the Labour surge is simply not realistic.
Could it be done? Yes. Has it been done? Unlikely. And, besides, the effect would solely be to put Yougov out of line with other pollsters. Even of the online pollsters, Yougov is the only one that is relatively easy to sign up to.
Perhaps we have a different mindset in this country and don't view people from around the world as being fundamentally different to those from Europe. All foreigners are equal so to speak and treat everyone as an individual.
To be honest that rather makes me happier to be leaving such a narrow minded EU club.
But, of course, all the best luck to your son.
I failed to predict Brexit or Trump, and I am now amazed by the Corbyn surge.
I think it's one part the kids facing a hopeless future in rentals and on zero hour contracts; one part a revivified hard left; and one part good old fashioned British love of the underdog.
And as the kids in the office would say, Corbyn clearly gives no shits, and that is invigorating compared with May's robo-speak. "Strong and stable" indeed! -- from the party that brought you Brexit, a collapse in the pound, multiple climb-downs and U-turns, government by Daily Mail headline, and BoJo in the Foreign Office.
May is playing us for fools, and Corbyn is right place, right message, right time.
Still completely expecting a safe Tory majority, though.
This is the attack line that hurts the tories the most just needs the right messenger.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017
Though I assumed it wouldn't bite the Tories on the backside for another ten years or so, when the current lot of twenty somethings are approaching forty and still living in rented accommodation.
The young vote Corbyn because they feel as if they have no future, no ability to settle down, start a family, save for the future. To them the system is utterly broken.
But now the middle aged are also deserting the Tories because even if the dementia tax is u turned on, the message can't be taken back: the Tories think the house you were expecting to inherit is fair gain.
Could Corbyn win with a coalition of those unable to get on the property ladder and those peeved off that the house they expected to inherit they now expect to be taken away?
It suddenly seems very possible.
I can't believe for one second Cameron and Osborne would have allowed that ludicrous Labour manifesto to have gone more or less completely unscrutinised. There wouldn't have been the social care fiasco either. And Cameron didn't even have to seriously try to eviscerate Corbyn at PMQs.
So depressing that someone as obscure and as mad as Corbyn could become our PM.
There are also the practical question of freedom of movement work visas and the like.
Anyway I wasn't suggesting that Brexit was wrong because it buggered up my son's career, just illustrating how wrong some of your assumptions could be.
If you are a 25 year old in the South East on 25k a year you wont be able to get an mortgage on anything, so you rent (probably with friends) or live at home. If all the rents are stopped and a lot of rental properties go on the market the prices will drop a bit, but not for long given the demand in the South East, and the price drop wont put them in reach of the 25 year old in anycase, so now they have to live at home if they can, or move out the area to somewhere cheaper, which wont make them very happy.
Surely that answer is to build a (lot) more houses, or reduce the demand, which practically means stopping enough people to fill a city the size of Sheffield arriving every couple of years.
1) Police numbers went down. Her fault.
2) Immigration never went down under her watch. Her fault.
3) We don't know who is coming in or going out, where they went who they met. Theresa May was hoe secretary for 7 years and we don't have laws in place to deal with suspicious terrorists.
4) She voted to remain not to leave.
5) She said we would not have an election, she changed her mind.
6) She said there would be no care gap, then she said there would.
7) Theresa May is a weather vain.
Despite Manchester we all recognise how much better our own security services have done than in France and Belgium, where the muslim communities are more marginalised and deprived than are ours. Two muslims previously phoned in to report Abedi as a potential risk; we need to make this sort of cross-community co-operation more rather than less likely.
I earned £31 k in my first year out of uni. Lots of my colleagues then, a decade later are on 100k plus. But of all my contemporaries at my (Russell group, redbrick) university, I am a minority. Many are on £20 - £30k, if they got around to getting a proper job. But that isn't enough to get a house in most parts of the South East, so in reality they are effectively excluded from society and have no underlying stability in their lives.
This is the basis for Corbyn's popularity, people feel that they have nothing to lose, and that something has to change, the whole establishment has to be turned upside down. We may be the winners, but we are also a minority, so there is a lot to be scared of whatever happens in this election.
I was talking to a colleague, he is in his twenties, multilingual and we have many of the same interests. He is on an apprentice contract earning a third of what I am earning, and he knows that it is going to end in October, with no certain future.
You can turn your nose up at people like this if you want, but I think that would be quite foolish.
Nothing at all so far about Corbyn's plan to hand back lots of power to the unions.
No downside in banging on about that for the tories is there? No votes to lose and plenty of waverers to gain I would have thought
The crapness of the tories is depressing. 50 seat majority still though, but then with the lack of talent on display, especially May, I expect a moderate to dismal 5 years being largely inept followed by a left wing Labour government just in time to make me unemployed in my late 40s
awesome
1: Most prior polls have had Others on 1% and so that is a rounding error away from 0%.
2: There are no "others" nowadays. UKIP, SNP and Greens are no longer considered Others on that list anymore when they used to be. There's only Plaid Cymru of the proper British parties that are left in the Others category and they're not going to get 1%