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Since TMay launched her CON manifesto last Thursday we have had just three published polls where all or part of the fieldwork took place afterwards – the Sunday Times YouGov, the Mail on Sunday Survation online poll and now, this morning, a Survation phone poll for Good Morning Britain.
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I suspect we're seeing the high tide for Labour0
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Or not.asjohnstone said:I suspect we're seeing the high tide for Labour
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Is there a third option?MikeSmithson said:
Or not.asjohnstone said:I suspect we're seeing the high tide for Labour
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I see Bedwetters for Osborne were out in force last night. I do love the smell of hysteria in the morning.....asjohnstone said:I suspect we're seeing the high tide for Labour
I doubt this morning's front pages are causing undue distress in Downing St.....
From Survation - while Lab leads on the NHS & education, in some other areas they're well behind:
Which party has better policies for...
...managing the economy:
Con: 48
Lab: 19
....making you better off personally:
Con: 35
Lab: 26
....best vision for Britain:
Con: 39
Lab: 26
.....securing the best Brexit deal:
Con: 50
Lab: 13
And finally, if you had to choose, of the following leaders who would you rather go on a dinner date with?
May: 31
Corbyn: 190 -
Indeed.MikeSmithson said:
Or not.asjohnstone said:I suspect we're seeing the high tide for Labour
Is this a fresh panel or d they survey the same voters again?
It'd be interesting to see if we're seeing direct Con > Lab switchers or Don't Know > Labour0 -
Meanwhile, in a diversion from the hysteria, I'm reading A Very English Scandal by John Preston about Jeremy Thorpe et al - goodness! We don't do scandals like we used to! I blame Thatcher.....0
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Well, only a few hours until we get an ICM....0
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I'm reading that as well. Great book and well written.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile, in a diversion from the hysteria, I'm reading A Very English Scandal by John Preston about Jeremy Thorpe et al - goodness! We don't do scandals like we used to! I blame Thatcher.....
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Scottish Leaders' debate:
The spin room segment is coming to an end, and it is worth noting that even a cursory glance through Twitter shows that SNP apparatchiks and politicians are ramping up the anti-BBC rhetoric, a decent sign they don't think the debate went their way tonight.
There's already a burgeoning conspiracy theory about our star of the show, the struggling nurse, who according to some online was featured in a previous Question Time show in Edinburgh.
The SNP seem decidedly unhappy about the nature of the debate and its apparent focus on devolved issues.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/live-blog-scottish-leaders-tv-debate-1-44525340 -
I hadn't realised how involved Thorpe had been with Scott (was at University during the trial and the non-bowdlerised versions of Scott's testimony - which didn't make the press - were the talk of the Union) - the Peter Cook summing up was masterful! But also clearly Scott was a very troubled individual, and mercifully today the sexuality at the root of the drama would be (largely) a non-issue....well worth a read!MikeSmithson said:
I'm reading that as well. Great book and well written.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile, in a diversion from the hysteria, I'm reading A Very English Scandal by John Preston about Jeremy Thorpe et al - goodness! We don't do scandals like we used to! I blame Thatcher.....
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Matthew Parris said " I don't know how Thorpe refrained from murdering him. I would have done."CarlottaVance said:
I hadn't realised how involved Thorpe had been with Scott (was at University during the trial and the non-bowdlerised versions of Scott's testimony - which didn't make the press - were the talk of the Union) - the Peter Cook summing up was masterful! But also clearly Scott was a very troubled individual, and mercifully today the sexuality at the root of the drama would be (largely) a non-issue....well worth a read!MikeSmithson said:
I'm reading that as well. Great book and well written.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile, in a diversion from the hysteria, I'm reading A Very English Scandal by John Preston about Jeremy Thorpe et al - goodness! We don't do scandals like we used to! I blame Thatcher.....
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Thanks, I'll use that if the numbers aren't great.MikeSmithson said:
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Not ALL Northern Irish responses would have been for other parties, the majority of them yes, but the Conservatives do also get some votes there and so do UKIP (although UKIP is not standing there this year)
There is also now a Northern Ireland Labour Party branch but Labour's HQ won't let them stand in elections.0 -
Good Morning.0
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Morning, Carlotta. I remember that well. It was the establishment vs the Plebs with some good juicy gossip. Someone effectively got away with attempted murder. Establishment did look after itself. No names.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile, in a diversion from the hysteria, I'm reading A Very English Scandal by John Preston about Jeremy Thorpe et al - goodness! We don't do scandals like we used to! I blame Thatcher.....
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Survation 15th May/GMB was Con 48, Lab 30, so making it Lab +4, NOT Lab +50
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So, basically margin of error...?Sunil_Prasannan said:Survation 15th May/GMB was Con 48, Lab 30, so making it Lab +4, NOT Lab +5
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The Cornish liberals think they had problems in 2015 and now...its nothing compared to those heady days.....surbiton said:
Morning, Carlotta. I remember that well. It was the establishment vs the Plebs with some good juicy gossip. Someone effectively got away with attempted murder. Establishment did look after itself. No names.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile, in a diversion from the hysteria, I'm reading A Very English Scandal by John Preston about Jeremy Thorpe et al - goodness! We don't do scandals like we used to! I blame Thatcher.....
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When SBT comes [ squeaky bum time ] every 0.1% becomes interesting let alone 1%.RobD said:
So, basically margin of error...?Sunil_Prasannan said:Survation 15th May/GMB was Con 48, Lab 30, so making it Lab +4, NOT Lab +5
Baxterisation with Scotland 43/29/19
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6, SNP 49 , PC 3, NI 18.
Another 1% swing to Labour, both Con and Lab will add 5 seats to GE2015 seats.0 -
It will be interesting to see North of England and London numbers. I think in London, the swing is now to Labour. Last few subsets [ warning ! ] I saw, the Labour vote in the North was coming back.0
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As I said be4:
"The Tories will no doubt win.
But many of us would never conceive of voting Tory. Not ever.
A sensible alternative would be to vote Green or LibDem, and some no doubt will.
But our politics is essentially polarised.
So Labour may not do as badly as might be necessary to shed its dingleberry."0 -
Survation/phone poll for GMB:
Of GE2015 voters. Con 86.7%, Lab 83.6%.
Another one: apparently over 88% of 55+ age voters certain to vote. Really ?0 -
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.CarlottaVance said:
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?0 -
I think if a PB Tory was to question why someone needed to go to a food bank they would be hounded mercilessly!surbiton said:
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.CarlottaVance said:
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?
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Herding.0
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For comparison, turnout amongst 65+ in 2015 was estimated to be 78%surbiton said:Survation/phone poll for GMB:
Of GE2015 voters. Con 86.7%, Lab 83.6%.
Another one: apparently over 88% of 55+ age voters certain to vote. Really ?
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-20150 -
Survation poll. In fact, the last few polls. Subsets [ warning ! ]
The regional subsets are settling down to their expected norms. It will be interesting what a proper Welsh poll coming out today with fieldwork after the Con manifesto launch has to reveal.
Survation puts Wales: Con 31, Lab 50. London: Con 39, Lab 46. North: Con 38, Lab 47.
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The SNP can't have it both ways - going on & on about 'evil Torea food banks' then personally attacking a Scottish nurse when she challenges the First Minister on them.....the SNP's days of blaming everything on Westminster are in the past.....surbiton said:
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.CarlottaVance said:
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?0 -
To give you a sense of how useful the subsamples are, Survation's poll on 5-6 May had Con 37, Lab 40. YouGov's full Wales poll had Con 41 Lab 35.surbiton said:Survation poll. In fact, the last few polls. Subsets [ warning ! ]
The regional subsets are settling down to their expected norms. It will be interesting what a proper Welsh poll coming out today with fieldwork after the Con manifesto launch has to reveal.
Survation puts Wales: Con 31, Lab 50. London: Con 39, Lab 46. North: Con 38, Lab 47.0 -
I noticed you avoided answering the question. My point there maybe personal matters involved, maybe not.CarlottaVance said:
The SNP can't have it both ways - going on & on about 'evil Torea food banks' then personally attacking a Scottish nurse when she challenges the First Minister on them.....the SNP's days of blaming everything on Westminster are in the past.....surbiton said:
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.CarlottaVance said:
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?
General question: Are Nurses all over the UK going to food banks ? Even 5% of them.
That would be awful. I know our nurses are not well paid. But going to Food Banks ?0 -
Note the word "warning" within brackets.RobD said:
To give you a sense of how useful the subsamples are, Survation's poll on 5-6 May had Con 37, Lab 40. YouGov's full Wales poll had Con 41 Lab 35.surbiton said:Survation poll. In fact, the last few polls. Subsets [ warning ! ]
The regional subsets are settling down to their expected norms. It will be interesting what a proper Welsh poll coming out today with fieldwork after the Con manifesto launch has to reveal.
Survation puts Wales: Con 31, Lab 50. London: Con 39, Lab 46. North: Con 38, Lab 47.
But regardless, if the gap is 9% and the GE2015 gap was 7%, this is to be expected. Due to the Tories doubling their votes in Scotland, Labour are now probably doing as well as GE2015 in England.0 -
Yes, but thought it would be informative to you/others the previous comparison. Not too bad, and probably well within the MoE of a small subsample (~50 people).surbiton said:
Note the word "warning" within brackets.RobD said:
To give you a sense of how useful the subsamples are, Survation's poll on 5-6 May had Con 37, Lab 40. YouGov's full Wales poll had Con 41 Lab 35.surbiton said:Survation poll. In fact, the last few polls. Subsets [ warning ! ]
The regional subsets are settling down to their expected norms. It will be interesting what a proper Welsh poll coming out today with fieldwork after the Con manifesto launch has to reveal.
Survation puts Wales: Con 31, Lab 50. London: Con 39, Lab 46. North: Con 38, Lab 47.0 -
I am not a cybernat - I won't pillory a questioner or seek to traduce their motives when they ask the First Minister a question. I'm sure you're above that too.surbiton said:
I noticed, you avoided answering the question. My point there maybe personal matters involved, maybe not.CarlottaVance said:
The SNP can't have it both ways - going on & on about 'evil Torea food banks' then personally attacking a Scottish nurse when she challenges the First Minister on them.....the SNP's days of blaming everything on Westminster are in the past.....surbiton said:
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.CarlottaVance said:
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?
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Good Morning Sane PBers Worldwide .....
All two of us ....
Now who's on this mornings Conservative bedwetters shift today?0 -
Con bedwetters?JackW said:Good Morning Sane PBers Worldwide .....
All two of us ....
Now who's on this mornings Conservative bedwetters shift today?
Sell their house to pay nurse to change the sheets. That will sort them...0 -
That looks more realistic than last Welsh Poll - Roger Scully has already twittered Gosh and Blimey about new poll findings suggesting a big movement from last poll....I was already expecting an unwinding of earlier support as people have looked more closely at Nanny Teresa and firming up of Labour support as Carwyn & Welsh Labour are distancing themselves from Comrade Corbyn.surbiton said:Survation poll. In fact, the last few polls. Subsets [ warning ! ]
The regional subsets are settling down to their expected norms. It will be interesting what a proper Welsh poll coming out today with fieldwork after the Con manifesto launch has to reveal.
Survation puts Wales: Con 31, Lab 50. London: Con 39, Lab 46. North: Con 38, Lab 47.
So I would guess Cons 30-35 and Lab 40-45 - I also expect UKIP & LDs have cratered which just leaves a big question mark over Plaid.....?
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The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.0
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And Corbyn will still be there....SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
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This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.0
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http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/05/20/new-poll-analysis-watson-skinner-and-flint-facing-defeat-cooper-miliband-reeves-and-rayner-on-the-edge/SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
Labour Uncut got the result of the last election pretty close. I would like to see more on their methodology and sources but there is no reason to think they are making this analysis up.
This may of course be subject to change if the polls really are altering, but it is worth pointing out even the best polls for Labour have them nine points behind ambling along in the low thirties.0 -
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.0 -
WithSNP fading, Cons faltering and Jezza surging, could SLab be the main Unionist benificary in Scotland?surbiton said:
When SBT comes [ squeaky bum time ] every 0.1% becomes interesting let alone 1%.RobD said:
So, basically margin of error...?Sunil_Prasannan said:Survation 15th May/GMB was Con 48, Lab 30, so making it Lab +4, NOT Lab +5
Baxterisation with Scotland 43/29/19
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6, SNP 49 , PC 3, NI 18.
Another 1% swing to Labour, both Con and Lab will add 5 seats to GE2015 seats.0 -
Every single party, major or minor, would appear to be heading for a post-election reckoning one way or another. I don't think it is going to be boring.SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
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We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
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QTWTAINfoxinsoxuk said:
WithSNP fading, Cons faltering and Jezza surging, could SLab be the main Unionist benificary in Scotland?surbiton said:
When SBT comes [ squeaky bum time ] every 0.1% becomes interesting let alone 1%.RobD said:
So, basically margin of error...?Sunil_Prasannan said:Survation 15th May/GMB was Con 48, Lab 30, so making it Lab +4, NOT Lab +5
Baxterisation with Scotland 43/29/19
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6, SNP 49 , PC 3, NI 18.
Another 1% swing to Labour, both Con and Lab will add 5 seats to GE2015 seats.0 -
Juncker is not the fool that some on PB would have. He is an astute consensus builder. Imagine what he could do sober.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
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But he might only be an astute consensus builder while he's drunk.foxinsoxuk said:
Juncker is not the fool that some on PB would have. He is an astute consensus builder. Imagine what he could do sober.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
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As well as asking neighbours to go through her bins to see where she shops.....
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/8664053147568496650 -
A consensus builder who is going to become the first EC boss to lose a member state?foxinsoxuk said:
Juncker is not the fool that some on PB would have. He is an astute consensus builder. Imagine what he could do sober.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
I would love to imagine what he could do sober but he hasn't been for years so there seems little point.0 -
If recent poll results replicate on 8/6/17, fewer than 20 seats may change hands and Labour would end up on >225 seats. Corbyn would be secure, but the LDs might be all but wiped out.
In my opinion, it would have been an unnecessary GE.0 -
Why are we talking about Brexit ? Is it to distract ourselves from the General Election ?ydoethur said:
A consensus builder who is going to become the first EC boss to lose a member state?foxinsoxuk said:
Juncker is not the fool that some on PB would have. He is an astute consensus builder. Imagine what he could do sober.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
I would love to imagine what he could do sober but he hasn't been for years so there seems little point.0 -
Catching up on the media tonight (10,30pm PCT), having spent a fantastic day at Whistler with my wife, eldest son and his wife, it does seem tbe care policy is still causing problems but all the newspaper editorials favour the policy, so maybe the worst is over but we will have to see.SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
However, here in Canada all I am reading is about Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbotts IRA links and this is coming from all the media including the broadcast and not CCHQ. It does look very bad and I think this could become the next story.
I understand TM is in Wales today and is going to go big time on Brexit, with only 11 days after the election to the start of negotiations and she is due to announce her rejection of the 100 billion EU ransom demand. She will no doubt bring in immigration and taking back our laws.
Acting hard on the EU will firm up her UKIP support.
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There seems to be little value left in the betting on SCon or SLD gains, but SLab has some interesting possibilities.Black_Rook said:
QTWTAINfoxinsoxuk said:
WithSNP fading, Cons faltering and Jezza surging, could SLab be the main Unionist benificary in Scotland?surbiton said:
When SBT comes [ squeaky bum time ] every 0.1% becomes interesting let alone 1%.RobD said:
So, basically margin of error...?Sunil_Prasannan said:Survation 15th May/GMB was Con 48, Lab 30, so making it Lab +4, NOT Lab +5
Baxterisation with Scotland 43/29/19
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6, SNP 49 , PC 3, NI 18.
Another 1% swing to Labour, both Con and Lab will add 5 seats to GE2015 seats.0 -
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
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You have not been giving us the results of your spreadsheet in the last 2 or 3 days.Black_Rook said:
QTWTAINfoxinsoxuk said:
WithSNP fading, Cons faltering and Jezza surging, could SLab be the main Unionist benificary in Scotland?surbiton said:
When SBT comes [ squeaky bum time ] every 0.1% becomes interesting let alone 1%.RobD said:
So, basically margin of error...?Sunil_Prasannan said:Survation 15th May/GMB was Con 48, Lab 30, so making it Lab +4, NOT Lab +5
Baxterisation with Scotland 43/29/19
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6, SNP 49 , PC 3, NI 18.
Another 1% swing to Labour, both Con and Lab will add 5 seats to GE2015 seats.0 -
UKIP and the LibDems have already proved that people have had enough of hearing about the EU already. May will need to be careful.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Catching up on the media tonight (10,30pm PCT), having spent a fantastic day at Whistler with my wife, eldest son and his wife, it does seem tbe care policy is still causing problems but all the newspaper editorials favour the policy, so maybe the worst is over but we will have to see.SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
However, here in Canada all I am reading is about Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbotts IRA links and this is coming from all the media including the broadcast and not CCHQ. It does look very bad and I think this could become the next story.
I understand TM is in Wales today and is going to go big time on Brexit, with only 11 days to the start of negotiations and she is due to announce her rejection of the 100 billion EU ransom demand. She will no doubt bring in immigration and taking back our laws.
Acting hard on the EU will firm up her UKIP support.0 -
I am not sure the Tories would be wise to count on that.tlg86 said:
And Corbyn will still be there....SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
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It can't be long before @SeanT predicts :foxinsoxuk said:
Con bedwetters?JackW said:Good Morning Sane PBers Worldwide .....
All two of us ....
Now who's on this mornings Conservative bedwetters shift today?
Sell their house to pay nurse to change the sheets. That will sort them...
Jezza GAIN Maidenhead0 -
And person/persons with extremely doubtful judgement.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
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To be served at a food bank, don't you have to show that you are claiming Social Security benefits?surbiton said:
I noticed you avoided answering the question. My point there maybe personal matters involved, maybe not.CarlottaVance said:
The SNP can't have it both ways - going on & on about 'evil Torea food banks' then personally attacking a Scottish nurse when she challenges the First Minister on them.....the SNP's days of blaming everything on Westminster are in the past.....surbiton said:
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.CarlottaVance said:
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?
General question: Are Nurses all over the UK going to food banks ? Even 5% of them.
That would be awful. I know our nurses are not well paid. But going to Food Banks ?
A single person can't claim income support if they earn more than around £15,000 and the starting salary for a nurse in Scotland, the very minimum is £16,132 (RCN)
After a years service and more qualifications their salary would start to increase.
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Could be part time?DeClare said:
To be served at a food bank, don't you have to show that you are claiming Social Security benefits?surbiton said:
I noticed you avoided answering the question. My point there maybe personal matters involved, maybe not.CarlottaVance said:
The SNP can't have it both ways - going on & on about 'evil Torea food banks' then personally attacking a Scottish nurse when she challenges the First Minister on them.....the SNP's days of blaming everything on Westminster are in the past.....surbiton said:
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.CarlottaVance said:
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?
General question: Are Nurses all over the UK going to food banks ? Even 5% of them.
That would be awful. I know our nurses are not well paid. But going to Food Banks ?
A single person can't claim income support if they earn more than around £15,000 and the starting salary for a nurse in Scotland, the very minimum is £16,132 (RCN)
After a years service and more qualifications their salary would start to increase.0 -
Why - it is the biggest issue facing the Country and 68% now want to get on with itIanB2 said:
UKIP and the LibDems have already proved that people have had enough of hearing about the EU already. May will need to be careful.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Catching up on the media tonight (10,30pm PCT), having spent a fantastic day at Whistler with my wife, eldest son and his wife, it does seem tbe care policy is still causing problems but all the newspaper editorials favour the policy, so maybe the worst is over but we will have to see.SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
However, here in Canada all I am reading is about Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbotts IRA links and this is coming from all the media including the broadcast and not CCHQ. It does look very bad and I think this could become the next story.
I understand TM is in Wales today and is going to go big time on Brexit, with only 11 days to the start of negotiations and she is due to announce her rejection of the 100 billion EU ransom demand. She will no doubt bring in immigration and taking back our laws.
Acting hard on the EU will firm up her UKIP support.0 -
The alt Right Tory wing will be stronger.daodao said:If recent poll results replicate on 8/6/17, fewer than 20 seats may change hands and Labour would end up on >225 seats. Corbyn would be secure, but the LDs might be all but wiped out.
In my opinion, it would have been an unnecessary GE.0 -
lol. Which candidates standing are alt right?surbiton said:
The alt Right Tory wing will be stronger.daodao said:If recent poll results replicate on 8/6/17, fewer than 20 seats may change hands and Labour would end up on >225 seats. Corbyn would be secure, but the LDs might be all but wiped out.
In my opinion, it would have been an unnecessary GE.0 -
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
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About a third of them. Many head-bangers are already there. Why do you think May is going for a general election ? She already had a clear majority.RobD said:
lol. Which candidates standing are alt right?surbiton said:
The alt Right Tory wing will be stronger.daodao said:If recent poll results replicate on 8/6/17, fewer than 20 seats may change hands and Labour would end up on >225 seats. Corbyn would be secure, but the LDs might be all but wiped out.
In my opinion, it would have been an unnecessary GE.0 -
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy0 -
Ah, nothing like sweeping generalisations. I think it'd be hard to describe many MPs as alt right.surbiton said:
About a third of them. Many head-bangers are already there. Why do you think May is going for a general election ? She already had a clear majority.RobD said:
lol. Which candidates standing are alt right?surbiton said:
The alt Right Tory wing will be stronger.daodao said:If recent poll results replicate on 8/6/17, fewer than 20 seats may change hands and Labour would end up on >225 seats. Corbyn would be secure, but the LDs might be all but wiped out.
In my opinion, it would have been an unnecessary GE.0 -
Though because all existing Lab MPs got to keep tbeir seats, there will have been no reselections, and it seems the moderates got most of their candidates selected for vacancies. So it seems they are safe for 5 years, at which point Jezza will be gone.surbiton said:
The alt Right Tory wing will be stronger.daodao said:If recent poll results replicate on 8/6/17, fewer than 20 seats may change hands and Labour would end up on >225 seats. Corbyn would be secure, but the LDs might be all but wiped out.
In my opinion, it would have been an unnecessary GE.0 -
Getting it over with would be the more apposite phrase. Brexit was always a minority obsession, pro or anti.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - it is the biggest issue facing the Country and 68% now want to get on with itIanB2 said:
UKIP and the LibDems have already proved that people have had enough of hearing about the EU already. May will need to be careful.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Catching up on the media tonight (10,30pm PCT), having spent a fantastic day at Whistler with my wife, eldest son and his wife, it does seem tbe care policy is still causing problems but all the newspaper editorials favour the policy, so maybe the worst is over but we will have to see.SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
However, here in Canada all I am reading is about Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbotts IRA links and this is coming from all the media including the broadcast and not CCHQ. It does look very bad and I think this could become the next story.
I understand TM is in Wales today and is going to go big time on Brexit, with only 11 days to the start of negotiations and she is due to announce her rejection of the 100 billion EU ransom demand. She will no doubt bring in immigration and taking back our laws.
Acting hard on the EU will firm up her UKIP support.0 -
If you are talking about the Ukip to Con swing calculator, then that's barely relevant to the question asked. Ukip are almost irrelevant in Scotland.surbiton said:
You have not been giving us the results of your spreadsheet in the last 2 or 3 days.Black_Rook said:
QTWTAINfoxinsoxuk said:
WithSNP fading, Cons faltering and Jezza surging, could SLab be the main Unionist benificary in Scotland?surbiton said:
When SBT comes [ squeaky bum time ] every 0.1% becomes interesting let alone 1%.RobD said:
So, basically margin of error...?Sunil_Prasannan said:Survation 15th May/GMB was Con 48, Lab 30, so making it Lab +4, NOT Lab +5
Baxterisation with Scotland 43/29/19
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6, SNP 49 , PC 3, NI 18.
Another 1% swing to Labour, both Con and Lab will add 5 seats to GE2015 seats.
Elsewhere, the effect of a large net gain of Ukip voters holds, so I have nothing new to report.
And I still don't believe the gap between the parties is as close as is, all of a sudden, being indicated. Certainly if it's that easy to turn the heads of the public with a manifesto that basically promises a free pony for every reader then the template is established for next time.
Simply pledge to print £200 trillion and give it away. Job done.0 -
Who said it was ? Look at the subsets of the last 3/ 4 polls. The people of the North, London, Wales are gradually moving back to their usual splits. And it started well before. The freefall started after field dates 11-15 May. Well before the Tory launch debacle.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
Today's expected Wales only poll will be interesting. Last one exactly 2 weeks ago had: Con 41, Lab 35.0 -
Here is the case that will be put for how and why Corbyn did better than any Blairite would have:SouthamObserver said:
I am not sure the Tories would be wise to count on that.tlg86 said:
And Corbyn will still be there....SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-anti-austerity-manifesto
-1 -
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.0 -
I think Tim Farron and Gina Miller would not agree with you but the Lib Dems position was always going to be a problem. This is and will be the Brexit electionIanB2 said:
Getting it over with would be the more apposite phrase. Brexit was always a minority obsession, pro or anti.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - it is the biggest issue facing the Country and 68% now want to get on with itIanB2 said:
UKIP and the LibDems have already proved that people have had enough of hearing about the EU already. May will need to be careful.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Catching up on the media tonight (10,30pm PCT), having spent a fantastic day at Whistler with my wife, eldest son and his wife, it does seem tbe care policy is still causing problems but all the newspaper editorials favour the policy, so maybe the worst is over but we will have to see.SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
However, here in Canada all I am reading is about Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbotts IRA links and this is coming from all the media including the broadcast and not CCHQ. It does look very bad and I think this could become the next story.
I understand TM is in Wales today and is going to go big time on Brexit, with only 11 days to the start of negotiations and she is due to announce her rejection of the 100 billion EU ransom demand. She will no doubt bring in immigration and taking back our laws.
Acting hard on the EU will firm up her UKIP support.0 -
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).SouthamObserver said:
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
0 -
Fundamentally, these polls invite me to choose from two options:surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
1. They are wrong, like they were last time
2. A much greater proportion of the electorate than I previously thought are infantilised idiots, i.e. I haven't a bloody clue what's going on in this country anymore
Under those circumstances, which way would you jump?0 -
Is Alliance counted for the Lib Dems or 'Others'?DeClare said:Not ALL Northern Irish responses would have been for other parties, the majority of them yes, but the Conservatives do also get some votes there and so do UKIP (although UKIP is not standing there this year)
There is also now a Northern Ireland Labour Party branch but Labour's HQ won't let them stand in elections.0 -
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her onfoxinsoxuk said:
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper0 -
Others. But don't most pollsters not bother including NI people in the sample, anyway? There doesn't seem much point, politically or statistically.logical_song said:
Is Alliance counted for the Lib Dems or 'Others'?DeClare said:Not ALL Northern Irish responses would have been for other parties, the majority of them yes, but the Conservatives do also get some votes there and so do UKIP (although UKIP is not standing there this year)
There is also now a Northern Ireland Labour Party branch but Labour's HQ won't let them stand in elections.
0 -
You are missing the point that, for the majority of the population for whom abstaining is not an acceptable solution, it's a forced choice. Even if you think that everything on offer is idiotic.Black_Rook said:
Fundamentally, these polls invite me to choose from two options:surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
1. They are wrong, like they were last time
2. A much greater proportion of the electorate than I previously thought are infantilised idiots, i.e. I haven't a bloody clue what's going on in this country anymore
Under those circumstances, which way would you jump?0 -
3. A large number of people feel left behind over the last thirty years. They believe the political consensus has done them little good. Instead of going for more of the same, why not try something different?Black_Rook said:
Fundamentally, these polls invite me to choose from two options:surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
1. They are wrong, like they were last time
2. A much greater proportion of the electorate than I previously thought are infantilised idiots, i.e. I haven't a bloody clue what's going on in this country anymore
Under those circumstances, which way would you jump?
Now, I think that view's dead wrong. But I cannot really blame some people for feeling it, and wouldn't call them 'infantilised idiots'.0 -
Another thing to look forward to this week is the IFS' assessment of the two manifestos, 10am Tuesday.0
-
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.ydoethur said:
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).SouthamObserver said:
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
0 -
Jezza is much better at working an audience than Theresa. He has shown no sign of being rattled, indeed he seems to be enjoying himself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her onfoxinsoxuk said:
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper0 -
It would be interesting to find out the cost to the economy of much lower levels of net immigration.RobD said:Another thing to look forward to this week is the IFS' assessment of the two manifestos, 10am Tuesday.
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/11/23/brexit-immigration-cut-will-cost-uk-billions-every-year0 -
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.SouthamObserver said:
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.ydoethur said:
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).SouthamObserver said:
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
And TM is due to say so today0 -
Note the final sentence. That's not how the unions see things.IanB2 said:
Here is the case that will be put for how and why Corbyn did better than any Blairite would have:SouthamObserver said:
I am not sure the Tories would be wise to count on that.tlg86 said:
And Corbyn will still be there....SouthamObserver said:The Corbyn firewall will see the Tories home comfortably. But the next few years are going to be a car crash for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-anti-austerity-manifesto
0 -
Given it's not actually a commitment I don't think we have much to worry aboutsurbiton said:
It would be interesting to find out the cost to the economy of much lower levels of net immigration.RobD said:Another thing to look forward to this week is the IFS' assessment of the two manifestos, 10am Tuesday.
0 -
With regard to polls, it is worth remembering that in 1983 the polls narrowed at the mid point of the election and Labour thought they might still win. In 2005, the Guardian spent almost every day (or it felt like it!) shrieking that the polls couldn't be trusted and in fact Howard was neck and neck with Blair when it mattered. In 1979 one poll even put Labour ahead.
I think one lesson we do need to learn from 2015 (and should have learned after 1992 and 1970) is that polls are noise. It's ever so exciting when they seem to tell us what we want to hear, but they are vague guidelines only. The key message we can take from them right now is that Labour are a long way behind on every key measure including voting intention. A lot of their supporters also seem to be habitual non-voters which may well be artificially inflating their figure.
What we do know is that Corbyn, as a rather dim and unpleasant member of the metropolitan elite, is fundamentally toxic in large swathes of the country, and while Theresa May not be loved, she is generally respected (except of course by Labour fanatics who are fuming at the shellacking she is about to give them). That's why there seems a real risk she will hammer them to pieces in a perfect storm election (and is of course whatever her public pronouncements the reason she is holding one).
The resulting panic at the possible scale of Labour's defeat is I think a large part of the reason why they've suddenly turned as a group into such utterly loathsome bullies (and I have a very particular reason for being angry about this which I unfortunately can't share in public because it may end up as a professional misconduct charge for the person in question). The more they protest they can still win and snarl at others, the more it proves their terror. For those Labour posters like SO and Rochdale Pioneers who are still behaving like fine human beings - you have my sympathy.0 -
So tens of thousands is not a commitment but it is in the manifesto. Interesting !RobD said:
Given it's not actually a commitment I don't think we have much to worry aboutsurbiton said:
It would be interesting to find out the cost to the economy of much lower levels of net immigration.RobD said:Another thing to look forward to this week is the IFS' assessment of the two manifestos, 10am Tuesday.
0 -
Not necessarily a convincing sign. The irony is that after all the shrieking from Labour earlier in the campaign, it's May that's visiting the places where she can be ambushed while Corbyn is being kept cocooned in situations where everyone agrees with him so he feels good and thinks his message is working.foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza is much better at working an audience than Theresa. He has shown no sign of being rattled, indeed he seems to be enjoying himself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her onfoxinsoxuk said:
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper
What effect that wil have if Labour are slaughtered and he had genuinely thought he might win, a la Hilary, I don't know and don't like to think of.0 -
I have seen him rattled and he only works audiences who agree with him.foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza is much better at working an audience than Theresa. He has shown no sign of being rattled, indeed he seems to be enjoying himself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her onfoxinsoxuk said:
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.surbiton said:
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.Black_Rook said:
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.tlg86 said:Herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper
Constant questions on the IRA, his Marxist beliefs, his anti UK attitude and sending subs out with no weapons, in front of a mainly unfriendly TV audience will see him spark - he will not be able to help himself0 -
Everything points to 50Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.SouthamObserver said:
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.ydoethur said:
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).SouthamObserver said:
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.ydoethur said:
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.SouthamObserver said:This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
And TM is due to say so today0
This discussion has been closed.