politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that standard GE2017 polls are for GB only and exclud
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that standard GE2017 polls are for GB only and exclude Northern Ireland
With 20 days to go it is time for my regular general election reminder to punters betting on vote shares. The standard voting intention surveys that we see are, unless stated otherwise, for Great Britain only and exclude Northern Ireland. This is because politics in the province operates with a very different party structure and generally GB based parties do not compete.
Comments
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If you followed me in, I've decided to close out my buy on Tory seats, still a decent profit.
It's going mammary glands up for the Tories with the dementia tax.0 -
You are not wrong.TheScreamingEagles said:If you followed me in, I've decided to close out my buy on Tory seats, still a decent profit.
It's going mammary glands up for the Tories with the dementia tax.0 -
Third"0
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I'm expecting one hell of a dead cat from Sir Lynton Crosby to distract from the dementia tax. 0
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@PaulBrandITV: .@RuthDavidsonMSP: "Let me give @NicolaSturgeon some advice. The PM says she's a 'bloody difficult woman', well you ain't seen nothing yet"0
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FPT
ab195 said:
I think the PM can live with a few "we need to rob the geriatric Peter to look after just about managing Paul" stories. You'll be able to tell if Sir Lynton is involved, and concerned, when we see a personal attack on Corbyn/McDonnell on the Sunday political TV to move the story on.
Michael Fallon is usually wheeled out to do those, but after his dismal performance against Emily "Honey Lips" Thornberry, I doubt the odious Crosby will be beating down his door.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/14/general-election-2017-may-promises-homes-for-generation-rent-politics-live
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Nah, worst case scenario is it'll be like 1992.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.0 -
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Nothing will distract from that, it will become THE issue for the over 60 voters.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting one hell of a dead cat from Sir Lynton Crosby to distract from the dementia tax.
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Precisely no-one at work, family or groups of friends has mentioned the care-home/social care policy of the Tories today, or yesterday.
Make of that what you will.0 -
I held onto my sell at 387 despite no Tory prosecutions and I'm going to see what happens after the Sunday papers and their polls. Aren't we due something on Thanet soon as well...?TheScreamingEagles said:If you followed me in, I've decided to close out my buy on Tory seats, still a decent profit.
It's going mammary glands up for the Tories with the dementia tax.0 -
So you buy at 378 and sell at 393. 15 seats at £40 is a good effort SirTheScreamingEagles said:If you followed me in, I've decided to close out my buy on Tory seats, still a decent profit.
It's going mammary glands up for the Tories with the dementia tax.
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Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....0 -
This is a very wobbly website.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I am calm.0 -
Don't forget Fallon's wibbling about the immigration commitment/aspiration/target/random number on Newsnight last night. Time to pension him off?bobajobPB said:FPT
ab195 said:
I think the PM can live with a few "we need to rob the geriatric Peter to look after just about managing Paul" stories. You'll be able to tell if Sir Lynton is involved, and concerned, when we see a personal attack on Corbyn/McDonnell on the Sunday political TV to move the story on.
Michael Fallon is usually wheeled out to do those, but after his dismal performance against Emily "Honey Lips" Thornberry, I doubt the odious Crosby will be beating down his door.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/14/general-election-2017-may-promises-homes-for-generation-rent-politics-live0 -
It will be fascinating to see on election night, how accurately the Scottish polling performs.
Klaxons at the ready, or not?
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Ruth Turner Overdrive or Theresa Jolson.Scott_P said:@PaulBrandITV: .@RuthDavidsonMSP: "Let me give @NicolaSturgeon some advice. The PM says she's a 'bloody difficult woman', well you ain't seen nothing yet"
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What are the Conservatives basing the claim that the Scottish parliament is the most powerful of its kind anywhere in the world on?0
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This big dead cat?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting one hell of a dead cat from Sir Lynton Crosby to distract from the dementia tax.
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If you're Theresa May, you use Amber Rudd. Something like the "wouldn't want him to drive you home" line about Boris but with reference to the IRA. Makes any return fire potentially look sexist and she can hide behind a bit of "I'm Home Sec and I know what it takes" waffle.SandyRentool said:
Don't forget Fallon's wibbling about the immigration commitment/aspiration/target/random number on Newsnight last night. Time to pension him off?bobajobPB said:FPT
ab195 said:
I think the PM can live with a few "we need to rob the geriatric Peter to look after just about managing Paul" stories. You'll be able to tell if Sir Lynton is involved, and concerned, when we see a personal attack on Corbyn/McDonnell on the Sunday political TV to move the story on.
Michael Fallon is usually wheeled out to do those, but after his dismal performance against Emily "Honey Lips" Thornberry, I doubt the odious Crosby will be beating down his door.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/14/general-election-2017-may-promises-homes-for-generation-rent-politics-live0 -
When the site was generally bigging up the prospects of massive majority, I did suggest we were probably looking at peak Tory and the thing to do was to sell Tory seats, aiming to buy back when the inevitable wobble came along. So far the position is only slightly in the money but the time for cashing out may not be too far off.Casino_Royale said:
This is a very wobbly website.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I am calm.0 -
I think Kezia Dugdale has cost the Scottish Tories a few seats with her shenanigans this week.SimonStClare said:It will be fascinating to see on election night, how accurately the Scottish polling performs.
Klaxons at the ready, or not?
The SNP will be delighted with her.0 -
Leaving Common Fisheries Policy - is that new?0
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Those making most noise are those spending least time talking to actual voters on the doorstep.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....0 -
That is what we might now refer to as a Brexit consequential...Philip_Thompson said:Leaving Common Fisheries Policy - is that new?
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Remember when Dave and George shifted the polls in 2007 with their inheritance tax plans.SeanT said:
That's surely the Tories main hope. That no one has noticed. It's too boring, bleak and complicated. Dementia, ugh.Casino_Royale said:Precisely no-one at work, family or groups of friends has mentioned the care-home/social care policy of the Tories today, or yesterday.
Make of that what you will.
Normally I would say this is quite likely. People don't care. But there is one huge demographic that does care about this, and does still read the papers, and does go out and vote: and that is people over 60. TMay's core electorate.
She's just gone and pissed off the many millions of pensioners who were about to give her a landslide.
We await the next poll....
Older people/Parents like leaving their kids their house tax free.
This policy will noble, does the opppsite.0 -
For general folk it is way too early to say. We may all be on the news in an instant, but for the less obsessed these things take time to filter through. And even when people notice they will take time to weigh up the issue and consider whether it changes voting intention.Casino_Royale said:Precisely no-one at work, family or groups of friends has mentioned the care-home/social care policy of the Tories today, or yesterday.
Make of that what you will.
Indeed if Labour turns its ground war onto the issue (targeted letters to pensioners from candidates in target seats etc.) this will take a week or more to show through.0 -
ST "England are having a disastrous game in the Six Nations" – and then they win.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
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The Conservatives are making the same mistake that Stronger in made, that 'strong and stable' is a desirable thing for voters when they feel their backs are already against the wall in terms of declining living standards etc, and the opposition is promising free xxxx for all from the magic money tree (in this case £350m a week...)SeanT said:
Paradoxically, this stupid bollocks from TMay might actually stop the modest Corbyn surge.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting one hell of a dead cat from Sir Lynton Crosby to distract from the dementia tax.
Let's say we get a poll early next week with Tories on 44 and Labour on 36 or 37. I think this is quite possible, apres Dementia Tax.
Suddenly it looks like Labour are in with a chance. Corbyn could actually be PM, if the trend continues. Everyone gets totally spooked and goes back to status quo ante: Labour on 30, Tories on 47.
Hmm.
I think if Corbyn builds up enough momentum - pun intended - then he may well keep gaining right up until election day. Why? Because the Conservatives clearly haven't planned for this eventuality and will start to panic. They will go hard on a negative campign focused on Corbyn, failing to read the mood of the nation is one of change, that we are sick of the negativity, etc, and the nasty party, the party of fox hunting and the dementia tax, will look even nastier.
I don't think Labour will win. But this could be a hell of a lot closer than we were predicting last week.
And 2022, on a hard left manifesto, with a more palatable leader than Corbyn, suddenly looks very much in play.0 -
Doesn't have to be true. Just has to be impossible to prove it's not true. "Of it's kind" is a lovely bit of sophistry.williamglenn said:What are the Conservatives basing the claim that the Scottish parliament is the most powerful of its kind anywhere in the world on?
Without it we could list all US State legislatures and half a dozen in Europe.0 -
FPT
Sandpit said:
» show previous quotes
Agree with you completely about the social care reforms, if there was one issue that needed some political capital spent on it, then social care is probably that issue right now.
What does need to happen though, is a detailed briefing paper handed to every Conservative that's going to touch the media this weekend, before opponents of the proposal trash it as "Dementia Tax" - especially when those opponents didn't have the balls to propose any reform of the currently broken system in their own manifestos.
My reply
I couldn't agree more. If the Tories go from landslide to working majority and the social care question is addressed then I regard it as a job well done. No political party has given serious thought about this for decades. At least T May has the balls to propose something.0 -
Don't forget Ruth's bad boy councillors !!TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Kezia Dugdale has cost the Scottish Tories a few seats with her shenanigans this week.SimonStClare said:It will be fascinating to see on election night, how accurately the Scottish polling performs.
Klaxons at the ready, or not?
The SNP will be delighted with her.0 -
It's nice to inherit lots of money. But, is it a wise use of public money, at a time of austerity, to ensure that people inherit more than £100,000?SeanT said:
I get Mrs May. I get her appeal to non-Londoners. I get her appeal to small c conservatives who quite liked Early Blair.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
She appeals to my Mum.
People like my Mum will not like this manifesto. Is my guess. But I could be wrong.
And now, to work, seeing as I won't be getting an inheritance.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.0 -
We've got to the state now when even a Tory majority of 50-ish will feel like a defeat. Corbyn will claim vindication, the EU will sneer and Tory MPs will be left dreaming about what might have been. How long will the Tories tolerate Theresa if she's perceived as a flop?SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.0 -
That's an old cat.Sandpit said:
This big dead cat?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting one hell of a dead cat from Sir Lynton Crosby to distract from the dementia tax.
Perhaps they've got footage of Corbyn meeting bin Laden.
Both Corbyn and bin Laden are Arsenal fans, perhaps they met up at Highbury one time and there's photos!0 -
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Not just the CFP:Philip_Thompson said:Leaving Common Fisheries Policy - is that new?
When we leave the European Union and its Common Fisheries Policy, we will be fully responsible for the access and management of the waters where we have historically exercised sovereign control. A new Conservative government will work with the shing industry and with our world-class marine scientists, as well as the devolved administrations, to introduce a new regime for commercial shing that will preserve and increase sh stocks and help to ensure prosperity for a new generation of shermen. To provide complete legal certainty to our neighbours and clarity during our negotiations with the European Union, we will withdraw from the London Fisheries Convention. We will continue our work to conserve the marine environment o the coast of the United Kingdom.
Wonder what Angus Robertson thinks about that......(the London Fisheries Convention pre-dates the CFP and allows boats from other countries access to waters from 6-12 miles - some Fishermen were worried that would remain in place: http://ffl.org.uk/brexit-backtrack-with-historic-rights/ - a worry that has proved unfounded)0 -
Also, I think many people outside of London and the SE will regard £100 000 as a more than satisfactory inheritance. My wife and I are continually telling our mothers to spend more now to be more comfortable rather than worrying about passing stuff on.Sean_F said:
It's nice to inherit lots of money. But, is it a wise use of public money, at a time of austerity, to ensure that people inherit more than £100,000?SeanT said:
I get Mrs May. I get her appeal to non-Londoners. I get her appeal to small c conservatives who quite liked Early Blair.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
She appeals to my Mum.
People like my Mum will not like this manifesto. Is my guess. But I could be wrong.
And now, to work, seeing as I won't be getting an inheritance.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.0 -
She wears her small minded provincialism with disgusting pride.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....0 -
Cancer and heart disease are the 2nd and 3rd biggest killers in the UK. Get those and you get treated for free.
Dementia is the biggest killer, and care homes aren't free..
That's always been an anomaly.
So May is noble in tackling it and I don't think it will do a great deal of damage to her majority, largely because Corbyn is so toxic.
I do take issue wit May's bleak and boring style though.
I wish she'd come up with something the working classes could really get their teeth into - likely announcing that she will make sure a million new homes are built by 2022. Something radical to boost the building trade etc.
It all seems very 'Life is shit. It will continue to be shit. I'm the best at managing shit'.
Not particularly appealing,
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Why is "provincial" a bad thing?Dura_Ace said:
She wears her small minded provincialism with disgusting pride.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....0 -
It would be fairer to raise the money via an income tax rise rather than penalise those unlucky enough to be victims of dementia.Sean_F said:
It's nice to inherit lots of money. But, is it a wise use of public money, at a time of austerity, to ensure that people inherit more than £100,000?SeanT said:
I get Mrs May. I get her appeal to non-Londoners. I get her appeal to small c conservatives who quite liked Early Blair.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
She appeals to my Mum.
People like my Mum will not like this manifesto. Is my guess. But I could be wrong.
And now, to work, seeing as I won't be getting an inheritance.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.0 -
Have I missed something? It's all doom and gloom for the Tories on here. Some even seem to be suggesting a Labour victory!
We've had a modest Labour bounce and the Tories sticking on the high 40s. We've also, as yet, had precisely zero post-manifesto polling.
Why is everyone acting like the sky is falling in?0 -
Fenster said:
Cancer and heart disease are the 2nd and 3rd biggest killers in the UK. Get those and you get treated for free.
Dementia is the biggest killer, and care homes aren't free..
That's always been an anomaly.
So May is noble in tackling it and I don't think it will do a great deal of damage to her majority, largely because Corbyn is so toxic.
I do take issue wit May's bleak and boring style though.
I wish she'd come up with something the working classes could really get their teeth into - likely announcing that she will make sure a million new homes are built by 2022. Something radical to boost the building trade etc.
It all seems very 'Life is shit. It will continue to be shit. I'm the best at managing shit'.
Not particularly appealing, 0 -
the front pages were quite positive today though for TM, it doesn't smell like the pasty tax or poll tax yet. I think most people accept that social care has to be paid and the wealthy have the biggest shoulders to bare the load, and why should rich pensioners get help with winter fuel, it should be means tested. I think even pensioners who are fair minded recognise thatTheScreamingEagles said:
Remember when Dave and George shifted the polls in 2007 with their inheritance tax plans.SeanT said:
That's surely the Tories main hope. That no one has noticed. It's too boring, bleak and complicated. Dementia, ugh.Casino_Royale said:Precisely no-one at work, family or groups of friends has mentioned the care-home/social care policy of the Tories today, or yesterday.
Make of that what you will.
Normally I would say this is quite likely. People don't care. But there is one huge demographic that does care about this, and does still read the papers, and does go out and vote: and that is people over 60. TMay's core electorate.
She's just gone and pissed off the many millions of pensioners who were about to give her a landslide.
We await the next poll....
Older people/Parents like leaving their kids their house tax free.
This policy will noble, does the opppsite.0 -
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It will soon become clear if dementia has done for her. The mood music on the doorstep will change. Of course that is not what will happen. The grey vote isn't suddenly going to decide that Corbyn raiding them on IHT and nationalising everything whilst buggering up Brexit is what they've wanted all along. They will grit and gnash their false teeth, vote May and whinge relentlessly for five years.0
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Says more about the maker of the comment than the provinces.....Sean_F said:
Why is "provincial" a bad thing?Dura_Ace said:
She wears her small minded provincialism with disgusting pride.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....0 -
The current system is a good deal more illogical, whereby people going into care homes who have assets worth more than £23,000 are effectively subsidising everyone else. The proposal is a big improvement on this.SeanT said:
I get that, of course. But the policy is illogical even within its own terms: it appears to penalise certain medical conditions - dementia, for one. Hence the power of the meme: Dementia Tax.Sean_F said:
It's nice to inherit lots of money. But, is it a wise use of public money, at a time of austerity, to ensure that people inherit more than £100,000?SeanT said:
I get Mrs May. I get her appeal to non-Londoners. I get her appeal to small c conservatives who quite liked Early Blair.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
She appeals to my Mum.
People like my Mum will not like this manifesto. Is my guess. But I could be wrong.
And now, to work, seeing as I won't be getting an inheritance.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.
It's plain bad politics. Just dumb.
There were plenty other ways Theresa could have been brave without frightening the electoral horses. Tsk.0 -
Yes, this could seriously test the Tory mettle. They were extremely disciplined when Theresa was riding high, but I foresee panic setting in if the polls start to narrow. This of course - a poll showing the Lib Dems nearly overtaking the Tories - was the catalyst for the overthrow of Iain Duncan Smith. Imagine the reaction if Jezza looked set to become PM!kyf_100 said:
The Conservatives are making the same mistake that Stronger in made, that 'strong and stable' is a desirable thing for voters when they feel their backs are already against the wall in terms of declining living standards etc, and the opposition is promising free xxxx for all from the magic money tree (in this case £350m a week...)SeanT said:
Paradoxically, this stupid bollocks from TMay might actually stop the modest Corbyn surge.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting one hell of a dead cat from Sir Lynton Crosby to distract from the dementia tax.
Let's say we get a poll early next week with Tories on 44 and Labour on 36 or 37. I think this is quite possible, apres Dementia Tax.
Suddenly it looks like Labour are in with a chance. Corbyn could actually be PM, if the trend continues. Everyone gets totally spooked and goes back to status quo ante: Labour on 30, Tories on 47.
Hmm.
I think if Corbyn builds up enough momentum - pun intended - then he may well keep gaining right up until election day. Why? Because the Conservatives clearly haven't planned for this eventuality and will start to panic. They will go hard on a negative campign focused on Corbyn, failing to read the mood of the nation is one of change, that we are sick of the negativity, etc, and the nasty party, the party of fox hunting and the dementia tax, will look even nastier.
I don't think Labour will win. But this could be a hell of a lot closer than we were predicting last week.
And 2022, on a hard left manifesto, with a more palatable leader than Corbyn, suddenly looks very much in play.0 -
You are a young fogey who prefers the company of sheep to people, yet you still wax lyrical about our AMAZING restaurants. If you profess not to like cities, stay in the countryside and eat bumpkin food washed down with yokel cider.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....0 -
This must all be a plot by the Tory Brexit loons to protect their leverage.Stark_Dawning said:
We've got to the state now when even a Tory majority of 50-ish will feel like a defeat. Corbyn will claim vindication, the EU will sneer and Tory MPs will be left dreaming about what might have been. How long will the Tories tolerate Theresa if she's perceived as a flop?SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.0 -
I expect it will see the Tories lose a few seats to the LDs in London and the SouthEast but in the North, Wales and the Midlands a guaranteed £100 000 will be seen as reasonable and those areas also like May's rhetoric on immigration and Brexit more than the SouthBlue_rog said:
Also, I think many people outside of London and the SE will regard £100 000 as a more than satisfactory inheritance. My wife and I are continually telling our mothers to spend more now to be more comfortable rather than worrying about passing stuff on.Sean_F said:
It's nice to inherit lots of money. But, is it a wise use of public money, at a time of austerity, to ensure that people inherit more than £100,000?SeanT said:
I get Mrs May. I get her appeal to non-Londoners. I get her appeal to small c conservatives who quite liked Early Blair.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
She appeals to my Mum.
People like my Mum will not like this manifesto. Is my guess. But I could be wrong.
And now, to work, seeing as I won't be getting an inheritance.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.0 -
No it wouldn't, because it would be an extra imposition on voters of working age, who've borne the brunt of austerity so far.logical_song said:
It would be fairer to raise the money via an income tax rise rather than penalise those unlucky enough to be victims of dementia.Sean_F said:
It's nice to inherit lots of money. But, is it a wise use of public money, at a time of austerity, to ensure that people inherit more than £100,000?SeanT said:
I get Mrs May. I get her appeal to non-Londoners. I get her appeal to small c conservatives who quite liked Early Blair.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
She appeals to my Mum.
People like my Mum will not like this manifesto. Is my guess. But I could be wrong.
And now, to work, seeing as I won't be getting an inheritance.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.0 -
I think there is a typo in the word Preposterous.Scott_P said:0 -
The strange case of the attack dog that did not barkSandyRentool said:
Don't forget Fallon's wibbling about the immigration commitment/aspiration/target/random number on Newsnight last night. Time to pension him off?bobajobPB said:FPT
ab195 said:
I think the PM can live with a few "we need to rob the geriatric Peter to look after just about managing Paul" stories. You'll be able to tell if Sir Lynton is involved, and concerned, when we see a personal attack on Corbyn/McDonnell on the Sunday political TV to move the story on.
Michael Fallon is usually wheeled out to do those, but after his dismal performance against Emily "Honey Lips" Thornberry, I doubt the odious Crosby will be beating down his door.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/14/general-election-2017-may-promises-homes-for-generation-rent-politics-live0 -
It might be an old cat to you and I, but not to Mr and Mrs Jones at 73 Acacia Averue, Birmingham.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's an old cat.Sandpit said:
This big dead cat?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting one hell of a dead cat from Sir Lynton Crosby to distract from the dementia tax.
Perhaps they've got footage of Corbyn meeting bin Laden.
Both Corbyn and bin Laden are Arsenal fans, perhaps they met up at Highbury one time and there's photos!
It would be very funny if there's footage somewhere of Corbyn and OBL, but I doubt it. I also don't doubt that CCHQ (and GCHQ, MI5, MI6 come to that) has a large filing cabinet of shit labelled "Jeremy Corbyn" that's going to be emptied on to the table the week after next.0 -
Because it's not metropolitan elite. ObvsSean_F said:
Why is "provincial" a bad thing?Dura_Ace said:
She wears her small minded provincialism with disgusting pride.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
0 -
You have more spikes than an alcoholic diabeticSeanT said:
Paradoxically, this stupid bollocks from TMay might actually stop the modest Corbyn surge.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting one hell of a dead cat from Sir Lynton Crosby to distract from the dementia tax.
Let's say we get a poll early next week with Tories on 44 and Labour on 36 or 37. I think this is quite possible, apres Dementia Tax.
Suddenly it looks like Labour are in with a chance. Corbyn could actually be PM, if the trend continues. Everyone gets totally spooked and goes back to status quo ante: Labour on 30, Tories on 47.
Hmm.0 -
Not a factor that troubled you when people of working age overwhelmingly rejected your daft Brexit idea.Sean_F said:
No it wouldn't, because it would be an extra imposition on voters of working age, who've borne the brunt of austerity so far.logical_song said:
It would be fairer to raise the money via an income tax rise rather than penalise those unlucky enough to be victims of dementia.Sean_F said:
It's nice to inherit lots of money. But, is it a wise use of public money, at a time of austerity, to ensure that people inherit more than £100,000?SeanT said:
I get Mrs May. I get her appeal to non-Londoners. I get her appeal to small c conservatives who quite liked Early Blair.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
She appeals to my Mum.
People like my Mum will not like this manifesto. Is my guess. But I could be wrong.
And now, to work, seeing as I won't be getting an inheritance.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.0 -
This country seems to want high tax/high spend public services but cannot ever seem to vote for actually paying for them. Cans have been kicked for a very long time. Deficits run and debts run up.
At some point in the journey from the past up to today it seems to have become the responsibility of other people (a.k.a. the state) to look after our parents or at least to pay for it. On top of health and welfare benefits. The slightly better off have got used to being fleeced up to a point but they clearly want something back from 'other people' too.
No section of society thinks they are the ones who should pony for waht we all now feel entitled to. We seem to be arriving at the moment in history when we are going to have to decide if we intend to pay for the things we want or not.
If the Tories win it - that way lies pain and a rebalancing away from previously happy customers who didn't think they were underpaying.
If Labour win it - that way lies agony. We'll be bankrupt and we'll get to enjoy the generosity with other people's money the same way Greece and Venezuela do.0 -
Indeed my mother, who is far from a true blue Tory, has been saying for years that she doesn't think she should get the winter fuel allowance.kjohnw said:
the front pages were quite positive today though for TM, it doesn't smell like the pasty tax or poll tax yet. I think most people accept that social care has to be paid and the wealthy have the biggest shoulders to bare the load, and why should rich pensioners get help with winter fuel, it should be means tested. I think even pensioners who are fair minded recognise thatTheScreamingEagles said:
Remember when Dave and George shifted the polls in 2007 with their inheritance tax plans.SeanT said:
That's surely the Tories main hope. That no one has noticed. It's too boring, bleak and complicated. Dementia, ugh.Casino_Royale said:Precisely no-one at work, family or groups of friends has mentioned the care-home/social care policy of the Tories today, or yesterday.
Make of that what you will.
Normally I would say this is quite likely. People don't care. But there is one huge demographic that does care about this, and does still read the papers, and does go out and vote: and that is people over 60. TMay's core electorate.
She's just gone and pissed off the many millions of pensioners who were about to give her a landslide.
We await the next poll....
Older people/Parents like leaving their kids their house tax free.
This policy will noble, does the opppsite.
0 -
dyedwoolie said:
It will soon become clear if dementia has done for her. The mood music on the doorstep will change. Of course that is not what will happen. The grey vote isn't suddenly going to decide that Corbyn raiding them on IHT and nationalising everything whilst buggering up Brexit is what they've wanted all along. They will grit and gnash their false teeth, vote May and whinge relentlessly for five years.
I thought rail nationalisation was particularly popular with the Baby Boomers?0 -
Who the flip are these idiots going on about 'hundreds of thousands of pounds' of dementia care charges? How many people are going to live the 25 years at home needing care to run up this sort of bill? Hysterical nonsense. Greedy middle class arse hats annoyed they won't get the full monty.
And these Wealthy pensioners with 100s of 1000s to lose. They gonna go Corbyn? Nope.0 -
They framed it wrong, in the document and in the speech. It would have been much stronger to say "the current situation is unfair and we are going to something about it - STARTING by quadrupling the limit". A rhetorical device of "x is unfair and we're going to do y" throughout would have underscored her core message too.Sean_F said:
The current system is a good deal more illogical, whereby people going into care homes who have assets worth more than £23,000 are effectively subsidising everyone else. The proposal is a big improvement on this.SeanT said:
I get that, of course. But the policy is illogical even within its own terms: it appears to penalise certain medical conditions - dementia, for one. Hence the power of the meme: Dementia Tax.Sean_F said:
It's nice to inherit lots of money. But, is it a wise use of public money, at a time of austerity, to ensure that people inherit more than £100,000?SeanT said:
I get Mrs May. I get her appeal to non-Londoners. I get her appeal to small c conservatives who quite liked Early Blair.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
She appeals to my Mum.
People like my Mum will not like this manifesto. Is my guess. But I could be wrong.
And now, to work, seeing as I won't be getting an inheritance.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.
It's plain bad politics. Just dumb.
There were plenty other ways Theresa could have been brave without frightening the electoral horses. Tsk.
The briefing to that morning's press seems to have all been about no longer having to sell up, which was good, but overall the document and speech seemed to have had too little editorial comment from others.0 -
Nationalisation is more popular among the young - people who have little or no direct experience of nationalised industries.....bobajobPB said:dyedwoolie said:It will soon become clear if dementia has done for her. The mood music on the doorstep will change. Of course that is not what will happen. The grey vote isn't suddenly going to decide that Corbyn raiding them on IHT and nationalising everything whilst buggering up Brexit is what they've wanted all along. They will grit and gnash their false teeth, vote May and whinge relentlessly for five years.
I thought rail nationalisation was particularly popular with the Baby Boomers?0 -
They don't use the NHS, have never been to school and have never witnessed the Police, Armed Forces or Fire Brigade?CarlottaVance said:
Nationalisation is more popular among the young - people who have little or no direct experience of nationalised industries.....bobajobPB said:dyedwoolie said:It will soon become clear if dementia has done for her. The mood music on the doorstep will change. Of course that is not what will happen. The grey vote isn't suddenly going to decide that Corbyn raiding them on IHT and nationalising everything whilst buggering up Brexit is what they've wanted all along. They will grit and gnash their false teeth, vote May and whinge relentlessly for five years.
I thought rail nationalisation was particularly popular with the Baby Boomers?0 -
£700 per week x 52 weeks x 3 years = £109,200.dyedwoolie said:Who the flip are these idiots going on about 'hundreds of thousands of pounds' of dementia care charges? How many people are going to live the 25 years at home needing care to run up this sort of bill? Hysterical nonsense. Greedy middle class arse hats annoyed they won't get the full monty.
And these Wealthy pensioners with 100s of 1000s to lose. They gonna go Corbyn? Nope.
Maths clearly not your strong suit.0 -
My father lived in a care home for the last two and a half years of his life. He died last year at 62. He suffered from a rare condition called corticobasal degeneration, the outcome of which was very similar to early-onset Alzheimer's, with lewy bodies. He was diagnosed at 56.dyedwoolie said:Who the flip are these idiots going on about 'hundreds of thousands of pounds' of dementia care charges? How many people are going to live the 25 years at home needing care to run up this sort of bill? Hysterical nonsense. Greedy middle class arse hats annoyed they won't get the full monty.
And these Wealthy pensioners with 100s of 1000s to lose. They gonna go Corbyn? Nope.
Anyway, the care costs were £580 per week. So do the math on that. It wouldn't take long to rack up £100k. And I know some of the people on his floor have been in there over a decade.
Which illuminates the other worrying point, normally hidden behind the dementia curtain, that caring for old people is costing an absolute fucking fortune.... and it is rising and rising.0 -
Who coined dementia tax?0
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The point I made on the previous thread was that the WFA should be made taxable. That way those paying 45% tax will only receive 55% of the allowance while those earning less than the personal allowance receive it in full. Means testing as we've seen with disability benefits is contentious, expensive and bureaucratic except this time they'll be far more people involved, a logistical nightmare in fact. Maybe the savings will be somewhat less but watch how Labour will feast on this as much as social care over the next three weeks.numbertwelve said:
Indeed my mother, who is far from a true blue Tory, has been saying for years that she doesn't think she should get the winter fuel allowance.kjohnw said:
the front pages were quite positive today though for TM, it doesn't smell like the pasty tax or poll tax yet. I think most people accept that social care has to be paid and the wealthy have the biggest shoulders to bare the load, and why should rich pensioners get help with winter fuel, it should be means tested. I think even pensioners who are fair minded recognise thatTheScreamingEagles said:
Remember when Dave and George shifted the polls in 2007 with their inheritance tax plans.SeanT said:
That's surely the Tories main hope. That no one has noticed. It's too boring, bleak and complicated. Dementia, ugh.Casino_Royale said:Precisely no-one at work, family or groups of friends has mentioned the care-home/social care policy of the Tories today, or yesterday.
Make of that what you will.
Normally I would say this is quite likely. People don't care. But there is one huge demographic that does care about this, and does still read the papers, and does go out and vote: and that is people over 60. TMay's core electorate.
She's just gone and pissed off the many millions of pensioners who were about to give her a landslide.
We await the next poll....
Older people/Parents like leaving their kids their house tax free.
This policy will noble, does the opppsite.0 -
To anyone who thinks that being the first politician in decades to prosose something on social care is going to be the end of Theresa May, there's six figures available to lay "Tories most seats" on Betfair at 1.05.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040697
For those of us who think she'll ride a storm which only exists in the minds of the metropolitan elites, there's nearly six figures available at 1.08 to back the Tory majority.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.1190407080 -
I think it's an OK to good policy. Conservatives are all about responsibility and while blowing the inheritance on your own care home when you would have been treated for free had you contracted cancer doesn't seem right, it is among the least bad options and no one can say it's giving money to the feckless as the recipient is the person giving the money.
Now that I have spent 1.5mins thinking about it, I'm not so sure Burnham's "death tax" was such a bad idea - a set amount from everyones' estate after a certain threshold.
But we are where we are. Do wealthy Cons pensioners really think that they will be in safer hands with Lab?0 -
Most voters want a free lunch. They want high quality services and low taxes.Patrick said:This country seems to want high tax/high spend public services but cannot ever seem to vote for actually paying for them. Cans have been kicked for a very long time. Deficits run and debts run up.
At some point in the journey from the past up to today it seems to have become the responsibility of other people (a.k.a. the state) to look after our parents or at least to pay for it. On top of health and welfare benefits. The slightly better off have got used to being fleeced up to a point but they clearly want something back from 'other people' too.
No section of society thinks they are the ones who should pony for waht we all now feel entitled to. We seem to be arriving at the moment in history when we are going to have to decide if we intend to pay for the things we want or not.
If the Tories win it - that way lies pain and a rebalancing away from previously happy customers who didn't think they were underpaying.
If Labour win it - that way lies agony. We'll be bankrupt and we'll get to enjoy the generosity with other people's money the same way Greece and Venezuela do.0 -
This talk on dementia brings to mind a topic that should perhaps be discussed more: quality of life in long-term illnesses.
The thought of getting dementia concerns me (my grandma had it for many years), and my illness last year gave me a glimpse of how frightening it can be to not live in the brain that you're used to (though that was very different in effect to dementia).
If I was ever to become very sick from an unrecoverable illness I think I would rather die (and perhaps be better off dead). I totally understand that this is not a choice everyone should make, and should only be made with access to full, impartial information. But I think if I had a legal form in front of me, asking if I would want to be 'put to sleep' rather than (as an example) live in a long-term coma (e.g. PVS), then I would discuss it with Mrs J, and be tempted to sign it.
We have Advance Decision / Living Wills, but they specifically preclude euthanasia.
This is an amazingly emotive issue, so I hope this hasn't offended anyone.0 -
Technically only true for personal care, if you are in residential care you have actually got a dementia bonus of £77 000 compared to what you were potentially left with after bills beforeSeanT said:
Caroline Lucas, I think? At least that's where I first heard it, on Twitter, yesterday.Jonathan said:Who coined dementia tax?
And I immediately thought: OUCH.0 -
There will be some harsh words in CCHQ. For me it's refreshing to see the Tory machine take a palpable hit. First time in yearsSeanT said:
Caroline Lucas, I think? At least that's where I first heard it, on Twitter, yesterday.Jonathan said:Who coined dementia tax?
And I immediately thought: OUCH.0 -
Which means it has to be paid for. It's as simple as that. Either significant tax rises on working people, or as a form of death duty/charge.Fenster said:
Which illuminates the other worrying point, normally hidden behind the dementia curtain, that caring for old people is costing an absolute fucking fortune.... and it is rising and rising.dyedwoolie said:Who the flip are these idiots going on about 'hundreds of thousands of pounds' of dementia care charges? How many people are going to live the 25 years at home needing care to run up this sort of bill? Hysterical nonsense. Greedy middle class arse hats annoyed they won't get the full monty.
And these Wealthy pensioners with 100s of 1000s to lose. They gonna go Corbyn? Nope.
And that's going to piss people off no matter how you do it.
0 -
OK, so 6-9 years at home to run up 100s of 1000s. Unlikely. Most would move into residential care and will now be 4 times better off in terms of leaving inheritance. And will have the possibility of going or visiting home which is currently denied them due to forced sale.Bromptonaut said:
£700 per week x 52 weeks x 3 years = £109,200.dyedwoolie said:Who the flip are these idiots going on about 'hundreds of thousands of pounds' of dementia care charges? How many people are going to live the 25 years at home needing care to run up this sort of bill? Hysterical nonsense. Greedy middle class arse hats annoyed they won't get the full monty.
And these Wealthy pensioners with 100s of 1000s to lose. They gonna go Corbyn? Nope.
Maths clearly not your strong suit.0 -
+100JosiasJessop said:This talk on dementia brings to mind a topic that should perhaps be discussed more: quality of life in long-term illnesses.
The thought of getting dementia concerns me (my grandma had it for many years), and my illness last year gave me a glimpse of how frightening it can be to not live in the brain that you're used to (though that was very different in effect to dementia).
If I was ever to become very sick from an unrecoverable illness I think I would rather die (and perhaps be better off dead). I totally understand that this is not a choice everyone should make, and should only be made with access to full, impartial information. But I think if I had a legal form in front of me, asking if I would want to be 'put to sleep' rather than (as an example) live in a long-term coma (e.g. PVS), then I would discuss it with Mrs J, and be tempted to sign it.
We have Advance Decision / Living Wills, but they specifically preclude euthanasia.
This is an amazingly emotive issue, so I hope this hasn't offended anyone.
My old man wouldn't have wanted to live like he was. It was undignified, humiliating, bewildering and full of suffering.
As some super-duper brain surgeon said on the radio the other day, we shouldn't be scared of death, but we should fear dying, because we are irrational about it, and allow ourselves and our relatives to suffer unnecessarily, believing suffering alive to be better than death.0 -
No, It's something which I've thought for a long time, and which will happen eventually.JosiasJessop said:
This is an amazingly emotive issue, so I hope this hasn't offended anyone.
We get better and better at keeping people living, but quality of life which matter more and more to people.
0 -
I don't think anybody thinks the dementia tax will be the end of Theresa May, but it's the latest in a string of unforced errors, coupled with a gravity-defying performance in the polls by Labour that have led me to radically revise my predictions (and bets) from a Con majority of around 150 to somewhere within to the 50-100 range.Sandpit said:To anyone who thinks that being the first politician in decades to prosose something on social care is going to be the end of Theresa May, there's six figures available to lay "Tories most seats" on Betfair at 1.05.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040697
For those of us who think she'll ride a storm which only exists in the minds of the metropolitan elites, there's nearly six figures available at 1.08 to back the Tory majority.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
A clear Conservative victory, but with serious implications for people who bet on a landslide. As well as implications for next Labour leader market and so on.
Dementia tax. Dementia tax. Just say it out loud once or twice. Slogan-wise it seems very likely to cut through and spread by word of mouth and social media. The next round of polling will be very interesting.0 -
I think this was the first mention.Jonathan said:Who coined dementia tax?
https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/8651357233930199040 -
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Who'd have thought that Labour had the best manifesto launch.0
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Agreed. For social and economic reasons we need to legalise (with proper safeguards) and normalise euthanasia.JosiasJessop said:This talk on dementia brings to mind a topic that should perhaps be discussed more: quality of life in long-term illnesses.
The thought of getting dementia concerns me (my grandma had it for many years), and my illness last year gave me a glimpse of how frightening it can be to not live in the brain that you're used to (though that was very different in effect to dementia).
If I was ever to become very sick from an unrecoverable illness I think I would rather die (and perhaps be better off dead). I totally understand that this is not a choice everyone should make, and should only be made with access to full, impartial information. But I think if I had a legal form in front of me, asking if I would want to be 'put to sleep' rather than (as an example) live in a long-term coma (e.g. PVS), then I would discuss it with Mrs J, and be tempted to sign it.
We have Advance Decision / Living Wills, but they specifically preclude euthanasia.
This is an amazingly emotive issue, so I hope this hasn't offended anyone.0 -
The last point is the key. Caring for our very elderly and frail from our income is rapidly proving to be beyond us. So we need to use the capital, or at least some of the capital, that these elderly have to help.Fenster said:
My father lived in a care home for the last two and a half years of his life. He died last year at 62. He suffered from a rare condition called corticobasal degeneration, the outcome of which was very similar to early-onset Alzheimer's, with lewy bodies. He was diagnosed at 56.dyedwoolie said:Who the flip are these idiots going on about 'hundreds of thousands of pounds' of dementia care charges? How many people are going to live the 25 years at home needing care to run up this sort of bill? Hysterical nonsense. Greedy middle class arse hats annoyed they won't get the full monty.
And these Wealthy pensioners with 100s of 1000s to lose. They gonna go Corbyn? Nope.
Anyway, the care costs were £580 per week. So do the math on that. It wouldn't take long to rack up £100k. And I know some of the people on his floor have been in there over a decade.
Which illuminates the other worrying point, normally hidden behind the dementia curtain, that caring for old people is costing an absolute fucking fortune.... and it is rising and rising.
The alternative is the sort of parsimonious half care people get at the moment with Carers rushing in and out of houses having lifted someone into a chair or put them back into a bed or rushing some food down them or wiping an arse without any chance at all of having a conversation or a cup of tea or a laugh before they race to their next appointment. And that's for those lucky enough to get any help at all.
I said yesterday and this morning that this Manifesto is brave in the Yes Minister sense and I am slightly apprehensive about how it will be received and perceived. But I really don't see a viable alternative. We need billions and billions extra for Social Care. As the proportion of our elderly increase where is it going to come from?0 -
OK, a personal example. When my grandfather went into a nursing home the family were forced to sell the council house he and my nan had bought (becoming WC Thatcherites in the process) to fund it. He was devastated, all he wanted was to go home or go and check his home, sit in his chair, look at his garden. All that has been smoothed now. He could have gone home and sat in his chair in his lounge, even if just for a day. Perceptions.0
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I wonder if Joanna Cherry (SNP) will be looking at her 8K majority and thinking, gulp!Scott_P said:0 -
FPT...
Afternoon all
To move on a little and subject to the Black Swan of the greatest polling comeback since Truman beat Dewey in '48, three weeks today Theresa May will be returning from the Palace and the triumphalism of some on here will know no bounds.
For those for whom supporting a political party is akin to supporting a football team, the Blues will be triumphant and the Reds and Oranges will less be assessing their losses than counting their dead and having to listen to an unending litany of jibes and gloating.
So be it, one day it'll be the other way round as sure as night follows day.
How though will the Opposition parties respond to defeat ?
As always, a lot will depend on how bad it is. The Conservative experience post 1997 might suggest the bigger the defeat the more the survivors turn inward for comfort and mutual support but whether that will be true of Labour this time is debatable.
The question is whether something will happen immediately or develop over time - the seeds of the SDP schism existed in 1979 but it took another 18 months before the probability of a breakaway became evident. In 1987, Steel moved immediately on the question of merger and set an unfortunate agenda which turned out badly for all involved.
It's obvious to infer the bigger the size of the Parliamentary Labour Party, the more likely Corbyn's survival but there is a "sweet spot" if you will where the defeat is so bad as to make enough MPs recognise their chances of advancement are nil as long as Corbyn (or someone like him) is in charge. Is there a Kinnock-like figure (though not Stephen Kinnock) who can win from the Left and lead from the Right and effectively turn on those who supported him/her or is the only alternative schism perhaps before or soon after the Party Conference?
As for the LDs, their historic low is 6 seats (1951, 1955 and 1970). Going lower than that (especially to 0-3) would present a huge challenge. Two thirds of those currently in the LDs joined after 2015 - the Party I joined in 1981 is gone. Could such a small rump survive ? Yes, in the short term but IF Labour does schism, the temptation to join forces with the new breakaway group will be very strong (there was a deal of tension in many areas between the Liberals and SDP in the early days).
It's also possible a new centre-left party would find recruits outside politics who would be the glue binding this perhaps initially disparate group together. The question is whether such a new group could be the initial repository for disillusioned Conservative voters post 2017.
As the song goes, there are always more questions than answers...0 -
Doh - you would pay that now until you were down to your last £23k. I am at a loss to understand how this and doing away with the silly winter fuel allowance is anything other than sensible.Bromptonaut said:
£700 per week x 52 weeks x 3 years = £109,200.dyedwoolie said:Who the flip are these idiots going on about 'hundreds of thousands of pounds' of dementia care charges? How many people are going to live the 25 years at home needing care to run up this sort of bill? Hysterical nonsense. Greedy middle class arse hats annoyed they won't get the full monty.
And these Wealthy pensioners with 100s of 1000s to lose. They gonna go Corbyn? Nope.
Maths clearly not your strong suit.0 -
Thereby denying the use of an empty house to a homeless family.dyedwoolie said:OK, a personal example. When my grandfather went into a nursing home the family were forced to sell the council house he and my nan had bought (becoming WC Thatcherites in the process) to fund it. He was devastated, all he wanted was to go home or go and check his home, sit in his chair, look at his garden. All that has been smoothed now. He could have gone home and sat in his chair in his lounge, even if just for a day. Perceptions.
0 -
I didn't know that Hugh Grant (or is it Osborne) had a login.CarlottaVance said:
Says more about the maker of the comment than the provinces.....Sean_F said:
Why is "provincial" a bad thing?Dura_Ace said:
She wears her small minded provincialism with disgusting pride.Mortimer said:
Speak for yourself.SeanT said:At some point we may have to consider the extraordinary possibility that the Tories might actually contrive to....... lose.
Clearly this is very unlikely but this is very definitely Wobbly Friday.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....0 -
For all that Labour shouted Bedroom Tax incessantly during 2010-15, what impact did it really make in the end? Now, this might be different because it's happening three weeks from the election rather than three years from it. But ultimately, the idea that people pay for their care is one that most are used to and accept (not Lucas obviously, for whom the banned or relocated businesses will pay for everything).kyf_100 said:
I don't think anybody thinks the dementia tax will be the end of Theresa May, but it's the latest in a string of unforced errors, coupled with a gravity-defying performance in the polls by Labour that have led me to radically revise my predictions (and bets) from a Con majority of around 150 to somewhere within to the 50-100 range.Sandpit said:To anyone who thinks that being the first politician in decades to prosose something on social care is going to be the end of Theresa May, there's six figures available to lay "Tories most seats" on Betfair at 1.05.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040697
For those of us who think she'll ride a storm which only exists in the minds of the metropolitan elites, there's nearly six figures available at 1.08 to back the Tory majority.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
A clear Conservative victory, but with serious implications for people who bet on a landslide. As well as implications for next Labour leader market and so on.
Dementia tax. Dementia tax. Just say it out loud once or twice. Slogan-wise it seems very likely to cut through and spread by word of mouth and social media. The next round of polling will be very interesting.
It strikes me as the kind of marketing that is a bit too clever by half: the slogan sounds superficially good but when you drill down, it doesn't make sense without a whole lot of explanation.0 -
I think that's the general idea...SimonStClare said:I wonder if Joanna Cherry (SNP) will be looking at her 8K majority and thinking, gulp!
0 -
Also surelyt he point is THIS MAKES THE CARE BETTER. I want the best for my mum and dad when and if they need it. I'd rather they were looked after than any additional amount of money which I'd blow on a sports car or second home.0
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The change would have reduced the worry my parents and I had during their last two years of illness. Paying £1,100 per week - not £700 as some are saying prayed heavily on my mother's mind - to stay in what was effectively a hotel where £30 per night would have been expensive.Sandpit said:To anyone who thinks that being the first politician in decades to prosose something on social care is going to be the end of Theresa May, there's six figures available to lay "Tories most seats" on Betfair at 1.05.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040697
For those of us who think she'll ride a storm which only exists in the minds of the metropolitan elites, there's nearly six figures available at 1.08 to back the Tory majority.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.1190407080 -
There's a question here: many people on here are (in my view) rather over-optimistic about how AI and technology will change our lives.
Do any of these wise sages have any views on how AI and technology may help reduce the cost of care, either in the home or in care homes?0 -
On topic, Mike's written
It should be noted that in a few Northern Ireland constituencies the Tories have put up candidates which should boost their UK voting share but not their GB one.
To clarify, the Tories putting up candidates in NI will boost their UK marginally, compared with not running candidates there. However, their UK share will still be lower than the GB one.0
