I live in the Ecuadorian Embassy with Julian Assange : Interested in counter-purrveillance // Yo vivo en la Embajada del Ecuador con Julian Assange Ecuadorian Embassy, London instagram.com/embassycat"
So, today we've learnt that the leader of the Labour Party doesn't know that winter-fuel payments are currently not taxable, and the leader of the LibDems doesn't know that currently your heirs may lose the entire value of all your assets including your house, apart from the last £23K, to pay for your care if you go into a care home.
Would anyone care to set up a half-decent opposition party?
Oh, they know, they're just counting on voters not knowing.
That's sadly the most likely explanation. C'mon Tories, get on every damn news channel and sell this. Read through this thread if you need help.
The policy is fair and a big improvement on the £23,250 allowance currently on offer.
My question to Corbyn is why is he defending the wealthy who do not need the WFA and how is he going to provide free universal care for those in need.
There has been a lot of nonsense talked on here mainly because most do not know how the present system robs people of their home and takes virtually all their inheritance if they need long term care,.
This policy is a great improvement and shows a PM who is willing to take decisions in the public interest
I do not have a problem with WFT going to the poorest pensioners only .Also the TV Licence and free bus passes .Cameron seemed to lose his nerve over this in the debate in ,2010.However the election was close that time unlike this foregone conclusion.
I do not have a problem with WFT going to the poorest pensioners only .Also the TV Licence and free bus passes .Cameron seemed to lose his nerve over this in the debate in ,2010.However the election was close that time unlike this foregone conclusion.
I know it has been reformed but free tv licences was / is stupidly expensive perk. It cost £600 million a year to give that sweetie.
I do not have a problem with WFT going to the poorest pensioners only .Also the TV Licence and free bus passes .Cameron seemed to lose his nerve over this in the debate in ,2010.However the election was close that time unlike this foregone conclusion.
Had my postal ballot paper today - why do councils send them out so early? How many will forget where they put it by the time of voting
Postal vote posting dates were moved earlier some years ago, to facilitate voting by ex-pats and through BFPO. Although many councils won't be posting until early next week; yours appears quick off the mark.
Looking at the above tables it's clear the Tories did much better than expected. Such a shame Cameron didn't have a clearer crystal ball so he would have known he didn't have to offer a referendum to keep the UKIPers at bay. In historical significance that might end up close to the shooting of Archduke Ferdinand
I think UKIP are at bay precisely because of the Referendum.
That's possible but more likely he was appeasing his own party for when he didn't get an absolute majority
If that was the case then he'd have offered the referendum in 2010/11, not after UKIP started surging in the polls.
If he hadn't offered it, we might well have Miliband as PM, propped up in his minority administration by Sturgeon and Farron, and Cameron would have gone after the election, to be replaced by who knows who - Boris? May? Osborne? - or a less-well-known but purer Leave advocate?
Meanwhile, against a PM Miliband, an underwhelming Tory LotO and a lightweight Farron, UKIP and Farage would be pushing 20% in the polls.
The referendum wasn't the main issue of the 2015 general election but given how close the final result was, it might have made enough of a difference in enough marginals to have swung the contest.
Looking at the Notts local election results for the first time. These were the total votes cast in Broxtowe District, which isn't exactly the same as the constituency:
Con 43.2% Lab 29.8% LD 14.9% UKIP 4.5% Green 4.1% Ind 3.5%
On the Tory manifesto I have to say that I think removing free lunches from the first few years of school and replacing them with free breakfasts for everyone is a brilliant idea.
No matter how poor kids are they get something to eat for lunch at school, but many of the most disadvantaged simply don't get a breakfast.
Why are you re-twatting a positive Brexit message?
I think he did it by accident, but it does seem that Merkel is conceding that the UK might be better off out.
Sounds like a slightly calmer version of Drunker saying that Brexit can't be allowed to succeed.
Yes, but it's nice to know that the Commission and Merkel believe that in principal the UK can be better off out, now if we can only get Remainers to see the light we might make some progress.
Has anyone done an estimate of the distributional impact of the Labour manifesto? Skimming through it it seems very kind to pensioners, who are generally reasonably well off: keep the triple lock, don't raise the retirement age, "some kind of compensation" for people who are complaining they didn't get the memo about the age going up etc. Then there's nothing much on benefits or tax credits.
I wouldn't have expected Corbyn to be redistributing wealth from poor to rich, but that's how it reads...
@PaulBrandITV: One Conservative MP, who's actually happy with social care/benefit changes, admits to me it is proving an awkward sell on doorstep. #GE2017
@PaulBrandITV: A second Conservative also tells me "there's a lot of concern and confusion" about Tory social care pledges on doorstep #GE2017
So, today we've learnt that the leader of the Labour Party doesn't know that winter-fuel payments are currently not taxable, and the leader of the LibDems doesn't know that currently your heirs may lose the entire value of all your assets including your house, apart from the last £23K, to pay for your care if you go into a care home.
Would anyone care to set up a half-decent opposition party?
Oh, they know, they're just counting on voters not knowing.
That's sadly the most likely explanation. C'mon Tories, get on every damn news channel and sell this. Read through this thread if you need help.
The policy is fair and a big improvement on the £23,250 allowance currently on offer.
My question to Corbyn is why is he defending the wealthy who do not need the WFA and how is he going to provide free universal care for those in need.
There has been a lot of nonsense talked on here mainly because most do not know how the present system robs people of their home and takes virtually all their inheritance if they need long term care,.
This policy is a great improvement and shows a PM who is willing to take decisions in the public interest
I do not think it is .The lower middle classes with a three bed semi sort approx 200k might not agree with you.My understanding was you only had to pay for care at home if you had over 23k in cash your house was not taken into consideration.
On the Tory manifesto I have to say that I think removing free lunches from the first few years of school and replacing them with free breakfasts for everyone is a brilliant idea.
No matter how poor kids are they get something to eat for lunch at school, but many of the most disadvantaged simply don't get a breakfast.
But will the feckless parents get out of bed early enough to get their kids to school in time for Breakfast Club?
Expect to see more mums at the school gate in jimjams and slippers!
Has anyone done an estimate of the distributional impact of the Labour manifesto? Skimming through it it seems very kind to pensioners, who are generally reasonably well off: keep the triple lock, don't raise the retirement age, "some kind of compensation" for people who are complaining they didn't get the memo about the age going up etc. Then there's nothing much on benefits or tax credits.
I wouldn't have expected Corbyn to be redistributing wealth from poor to rich, but that's how it reads...
Care for the elderly is something that has been increasingly worrying my sister and i-both our parents are in their 70's and neither are in great health. Unfortunately they are of an attitude that their generation dont really discuss health, money, care etc with their children. Following yesterdays manifesto launch i called my father and we spoke on this subject for about 20 minutes. That is about 15 minutes longer than all my previous conversations combined.
Are the Conservative polices the right ones? I dont know-i am not an expert.
But from the conversation i have had with my father and by the numerous conversations that have gone on in my office today - the terms of debate have shifted. And in politics whoever sets the terms of the debate can usually expect to benefit.
I do not have a problem with WFT going to the poorest pensioners only .Also the TV Licence and free bus passes .Cameron seemed to lose his nerve over this in the debate in ,2010.However the election was close that time unlike this foregone conclusion.
I know it has been reformed but free tv licences was / is stupidly expensive perk. It cost £600 million a year to give that sweetie.
The freebus pass i can see benefit in.
The freedom passes in London cost local councils a fortune, especially as the age for them is fixed at 60, and not linked to retirement age as in many other parts of the UK. But it is of course such a hot potato for the Mayor to contemplate making any change.
Just wondering if the election falling in the middle of Ramadhan will have an effect on how many hours muslim Labour activists put into GOTV and leafletting ect, which could make a difference in key seats. Hmm.
Well, it seems that between 2006, the last year before the SNP came to power, and 2015 Scotland’s ranking has declined slightly from 11th to 23rd for reading – probably just a 10-year glitch – and from 11th to 24th for maths, which is only a little worse. The good news is, for science, the slippage was only from 10th to 19th: you would have to be a carping nitpicker (or a Scottish parent) to complain about that.
You should fight your corner, First Minister, in this election campaign and explain to Scottish voters that there is no shame in being outperformed by Slovenia – a highly intellectual nation – and that Scotland can also proudly claim to be doing as well as Latvia. It should further be borne in mind that Scotland labours under the handicap of being shackled to England, a connection that has weakened her sinews due to all the cash being funnelled north via the Barnett Formula and similar colonial devices to subvert the nation’s hardihood.
“A party that is now in its second term of office cannot avoid taking responsibility for its own failings.” Hey, what Unionist lickspittle said that? Oh, sorry, First Minister, of course it was you; but that was before you became First Minister and now your party is in its third term of office and Scotland has recorded its worst ever performance in education, which you wanted to be judged on. Tricky one for the spin team.
@PaulBrandITV: One Conservative MP, who's actually happy with social care/benefit changes, admits to me it is proving an awkward sell on doorstep. #GE2017
@PaulBrandITV: A second Conservative also tells me "there's a lot of concern and confusion" about Tory social care pledges on doorstep #GE2017
Is it as hard a sell for Tories on the doorstep as it has been for Labour to sell Corbyn? I can't believe hundreds of thousands or possibly millions of pensioners would consider voting for Corbyn. This demographic is the most sensible of all, and they would surely know that bankrupting the economy would cost far more than WFA or social care changes.
Just wondering if the election falling in the middle of Ramadhan will have an effect on how many hours muslim Labour activists put into GOTV and leafletting ect, which could make a difference in key seats. Hmm.
I thought Ramadhan involved fasting during daylight hours, more time for canvassing surely?
Just wondering if the election falling in the middle of Ramadhan will have an effect on how many hours muslim Labour activists put into GOTV and leafletting ect, which could make a difference in key seats. Hmm.
Has anyone done an estimate of the distributional impact of the Labour manifesto? Skimming through it it seems very kind to pensioners, who are generally reasonably well off: keep the triple lock, don't raise the retirement age, "some kind of compensation" for people who are complaining they didn't get the memo about the age going up etc. Then there's nothing much on benefits or tax credits.
I wouldn't have expected Corbyn to be redistributing wealth from poor to rich, but that's how it reads...
I thought there were prizes for everybody?
There doesn't seem to be much to speak of for the victims of Tory austerity, but maybe I missed it.
OK. One thing from this focus group has finally convinced me that the Labour vote will hold up despite Corbyn:
“You can’t say now, can you, that there isn’t a choice between right and left.”
This one comment has convinced me that Corbyn is actually likely to be a better vote getter for Labour this election than a no-name grey suit Tory-lite Blairite such as Owen Smith would have been.
Based on this, I think the Tories will get a very healthy majority but not an absolute landslide.
Just wondering if the election falling in the middle of Ramadhan will have an effect on how many hours muslim Labour activists put into GOTV and leafletting ect, which could make a difference in key seats. Hmm.
I thought Ramadhan involved fasting during daylight hours, more time for canvassing surely?
Yes - in theory it shouldn't make much difference - no lunch breaks (and possibly slightly cranky canvassers) but I doubt it will have a measurable effect.
On the Tory manifesto I have to say that I think removing free lunches from the first few years of school and replacing them with free breakfasts for everyone is a brilliant idea.
No matter how poor kids are they get something to eat for lunch at school, but many of the most disadvantaged simply don't get a breakfast.
But will the feckless parents get out of bed early enough to get their kids to school in time for Breakfast Club?
Expect to see more mums at the school gate in jimjams and slippers!
I was talking to a teacher acquaintance a few months ago. She said someone had to be on duty at the gates at closing time to check for parents turning up drunk.
More cynically, with the Tories so dominant among elderly voters, it's an odd choice of battleground for them
In the sense that it goes against their narrow partisan interest? They should be applauded for that, if so, surely?
Absolutely, if that was their thinking. I doubt it, though - "Let's concentrate in our manifesto on an area which might lose us votes". Really?
Or possibly "Let's concentrate in our manifesto on an area which needs to be fixed and about which we need to be upfront, because nobody else is prepared to be."
Perhaps I'm too cynical, but I think it's a calculation (because the issue is clearly of interest to their core vote) which may or may not work out.
It may or may not work out? That's going out on a limb.
I think politics are like BMWs. They often look good on paper or on the website or even in the showroom, but they lose their appeal when you look at the ghastly parvenu self-regarding oiks who actually own and drive them.
Likewise with politics and political choices we tend to judge them by the politicians associated with them. We hear an idea and then scorn it not on its merits but because it's a Tory idea (or whatever). Or we hear of a policy and think it sounds great but then we realise it's a Labour policy and they will screw it up somehow.
I don't know what the answer to this is, but I think you just did it and I think it is how May can get away with pinching policies from Ed Miliband and from UKIP.
Thanks for that article from Gerald Warner the former policy adviser to Michael Forsyth when that Tory Secretary of State for Scotland led his Scottish branch to political wipeout in 1997.
I am sure his finger is on the pulse of Scottish politics today :-)
Just wondering if the election falling in the middle of Ramadhan will have an effect on how many hours muslim Labour activists put into GOTV and leafletting ect, which could make a difference in key seats. Hmm.
Interestingly the Muslim Council of Britain doesn't seem to have much of a problem with it.
Yeah, but it is a time to really concentrate on reading the Quran and getting closer to God. I just thought some Labour members (since they will be mainly Labour supporters), might think there's more important things to be doing.
Thanks for that article from Gerald Warner the former policy adviser to Michael Forsyth when that Tory Secretary of State for Scotland led his Scottish branch to political wipeout in 1997.
I am sure his finger is on the pulse of Scottish politics today :-)
You discount the decline in education performance?
Thanks for that article from Gerald Warner the former policy adviser to Michael Forsyth when that Tory Secretary of State for Scotland led his Scottish branch to political wipeout in 1997.
I am sure his finger is on the pulse of Scottish politics today :-)
What you are saying is, he is well qualified to comment on tired governments being thrashed at the polls.
I do not think it is .The lower middle classes with a three bed semi sort approx 200k might not agree with you.My understanding was you only had to pay for care at home if you had over 23k in cash your house was not taken into consideration.
Yes - the proposals benefit the estates of people who need to go into care homes, at the expense of the estates of (the much larger number of) people who need care at home. If that makes people go into care homes sooner where they'd otherwise have hung on at home, that's a perverse impact, but I'd guess that most people don't make life-changing decisions like that on the basis of what will maximise their estates.
Thanks for that article from Gerald Warner the former policy adviser to Michael Forsyth when that Tory Secretary of State for Scotland led his Scottish branch to political wipeout in 1997.
I am sure his finger is on the pulse of Scottish politics today :-)
You discount the decline in education performance?
Come on Carlotta, apart from literacy and numeracy Scottish education is doing fine...
Education. I remain to be convinced that conditions are remotely as dire as portrayed because the outcome of the Highers, the most definitive standard of education in Scotland at the point when most leave school, continue to produce improved results.
I do not think it is .The lower middle classes with a three bed semi sort approx 200k might not agree with you.My understanding was you only had to pay for care at home if you had over 23k in cash your house was not taken into consideration.
Yes - the proposals benefit the estates of people who need to go into care homes, at the expense of the estates of (the much larger number of) people who need care at home. If that makes people go into care homes sooner where they'd otherwise have hung on at home, that's a perverse impact, but I'd guess that most people don't make life-changing decisions like that on the basis of what will maximise their estates.
Just wondering if the election falling in the middle of Ramadhan will have an effect on how many hours muslim Labour activists put into GOTV and leafletting ect, which could make a difference in key seats. Hmm.
Interestingly the Muslim Council of Britain doesn't seem to have much of a problem with it.
Yeah, but it is a time to really concentrate on reading the Quran and getting closer to God. I just thought some Labour members (since they will be mainly Labour supporters), might think there's more important things to be doing.
The ICC Champions Trophy match between India and Sri Lanka at the Oval scheduled for the same day is likely to be much more of a distraction.
the outcome of the Highers, the most definitive standard of education in Scotland at the point when most leave school, continue to produce improved results.
I do not think it is .The lower middle classes with a three bed semi sort approx 200k might not agree with you.My understanding was you only had to pay for care at home if you had over 23k in cash your house was not taken into consideration.
Yes - the proposals benefit the estates of people who need to go into care homes, at the expense of the estates of (the much larger number of) people who need care at home. If that makes people go into care homes sooner where they'd otherwise have hung on at home, that's a perverse impact, but I'd guess that most people don't make life-changing decisions like that on the basis of what will maximise their estates.
At the moment the incentive is the opposite, to ensure all of your assets are in your house.
A neat riposte-but I don't think a wipeout for the SNP is coming any time soon.
Probably true, but to return to the article, the SNP have a unique measure for failure the SNP is in a unique position which means this election – and any election – matters enormously, more than for any other party. The SNP’s success has depended on momentum. Once that momentum is not only halted but reversed, the jig is up. The headline “SNP losses” is fatal to public perception of a supposedly irresistible surge towards independence.
Looking at the Notts local election results for the first time. These were the total votes cast in Broxtowe District, which isn't exactly the same as the constituency:
Con 43.2% Lab 29.8% LD 14.9% UKIP 4.5% Green 4.1% Ind 3.5%
That's right, and the constituency figures aren't that different. The LibDems do far better locally than at GEs (where their score last time was 4%, despite a very well-liked candidate), while UKIP did much better last time. If the LD and Green vote switched to Labour en masse and/or the UKIP vote held up because Anna Soubry is seen an ultra-Remainer, then Labour could be in with a shot, but to be honest my impression is that the LD vote is crumbling both ways.
@faisalislam: Winter Fuel Payments for all pensioners in Scotland to stay, @RuthDavidsonMSP tells Sky News its because "it's colder in Scotland"
@faisalislam: I'm sure saving Winter Fuel Payment only for Scottish pensioners will go down really well with, say, errrm, chilly n English pensioners
@faisalislam: ... current status: consulting Met Office meteorological charts comparing min winter temperatures in Northern England with Scotland
Scotland *IS* Northen England ... until we grant them a referendum or throw them out.
Yes.
On his desk for 40-odd years my father kept a figurine painted for him by my late brother in childhood. According to its name plate it was a Royal North British Dragoon ("Scots Grey"). AIUI for quite a long time post 1707 Scotland was a geographical expression, like Italy before Garibaldi.
Education. I remain to be convinced that conditions are remotely as dire as portrayed because the outcome of the Highers, the most definitive standard of education in Scotland at the point when most leave school, continue to produce improved results.
So on international standards the quality of Scottish education is declining- but on Scottish standards it is improving.
It is simply a fact that there has never been evidence of grade inflation being quite the scale of problem in Scotland as in England-though it certainly exists, or I am a lot thicker than many of my younger relatives which is not something I am rushing to concede :-)
Care for the elderly is something that has been increasingly worrying my sister and i-both our parents are in their 70's and neither are in great health. Unfortunately they are of an attitude that their generation dont really discuss health, money, care etc with their children. Following yesterdays manifesto launch i called my father and we spoke on this subject for about 20 minutes. That is about 15 minutes longer than all my previous conversations combined.
Are the Conservative polices the right ones? I dont know-i am not an expert.
But from the conversation i have had with my father and by the numerous conversations that have gone on in my office today - the terms of debate have shifted. And in politics whoever sets the terms of the debate can usually expect to benefit.
I think when the votes are counted, labour will mop up the trendy bohemian urban and student vote and get massacred in every other dynamic.
I went to see the sublimely brilliant jazz pianist Brad Mehdlau at the Norwich festival last night...I doubt there were many Tories there. The town centre had some anti Tory protesters too with the Newsnight juggernaut coming to town.
Not one Tory poster as far as I can see in the whole of the golden triangle too...
I've got a Labour Board out (for solidarity) and a Green, and I'm an undecided....
On the Tory manifesto I have to say that I think removing free lunches from the first few years of school and replacing them with free breakfasts for everyone is a brilliant idea.
No matter how poor kids are they get something to eat for lunch at school, but many of the most disadvantaged simply don't get a breakfast.
But will the feckless parents get out of bed early enough to get their kids to school in time for Breakfast Club?
Expect to see more mums at the school gate in jimjams and slippers!
Most children on the edge of care walk themselves to primary school in any case.
Our postal votes (Central Bedfordshire) were sent out on Monday. Most of them will already have been returned.
Limited canvassing (phone and personal) and activistic instincts on sniffing the wind are that the Blues will takes votes in sufficiently large numbers from i) UKIP ii) WWC ex-Labour and iii) anti Corbynite LD's that there will be very few Con loss and substantial Con gains particularly in West Midlands, Yorks & Humber and NE.
In 2015 all Con attention here focused on Bedford and MK South. Its now all going to Luton South. Kelvin (who many Tories around here mostly like despite his Corbynism because of his Leave efforts) will survive because of the much changed demographic in Luton.
I think when the votes are counted, labour will mop up the trendy bohemian urban and student vote and get massacred in every other dynamic.
I went to see the sublimely brilliant jazz pianist Brad Mehdlau at the Norwich festival last night...I doubt there were many Tories there. The town centre had some anti Tory protesters too with the Newsnight juggernaut coming to town.
Not one Tory poster as far as I can see in the whole of the golden triangle too...
I've got a Labour Board out (for solidarity) and a Green, and I'm an undecided....
Just wondering if the election falling in the middle of Ramadhan will have an effect on how many hours muslim Labour activists put into GOTV and leafletting ect, which could make a difference in key seats. Hmm.
Interestingly the Muslim Council of Britain doesn't seem to have much of a problem with it.
A technical way around it would be for volunteers to 'travel' to canvass and GOTV in other constituencies. There is dispensation on fasting requirements for those travelling, provided that lost fasting days are made up for at another time during the year.
It tells me education remains a political football, and the emphasis on it is because it appears to be the one area in which a chink of weakness in the SNP armoury has become available for unionists to attack.
The unionists say very little about the Scottish NHS because that performs much better than in England or Wales as do most other areas where it is possible to attempt comparisons.
Thanks for that article from Gerald Warner the former policy adviser to Michael Forsyth when that Tory Secretary of State for Scotland led his Scottish branch to political wipeout in 1997.
I am sure his finger is on the pulse of Scottish politics today :-)
Just eleven short months ago Scotty was all in favour of a second indy referendum and thought Scots should vote Yes. He has since had to do penance by linking to headbangers like Warner and 'hilarious' tweets by Spanner. Of course he'll have to approvingly retweet Coburn for the full Kipperyoon absolution. Only a matter of time..
IFS have report on the Dementia Tax proposal. Pretty damning conclusion:
"the Conservative plan makes no attempt to deal with the fundamental challenge of social care funding. That is the big problem – not how many people might win or lose."
Our postal votes (Central Bedfordshire) were sent out on Monday. Most of them will already have been returned.
Limited canvassing (phone and personal) and activistic instincts on sniffing the wind are that the Blues will takes votes in sufficiently large numbers from i) UKIP ii) WWC ex-Labour and iii) anti Corbynite LD's that there will be very few Con loss and substantial Con gains particularly in West Midlands, Yorks & Humber and NE.
In 2015 all Con attention here focused on Bedford and MK South. Its now all going to Luton South. Kelvin (who many Tories around here mostly like despite his Corbynism because of his Leave efforts) will survive because of the much changed demographic in Luton.
Also back in the days when Luton North was electing the likes of John Carlisle (aka MP for Johannesburg), the constituency included Bedfordshire villages like Flitwick and Westoning.
early weather forecast for election day - Most of England will have a dry sunny day though rain will move into Northern and Central areasby evening Scotland and Wales will see rain bands on and off during the day - temps 16 - 18
I think when the votes are counted, labour will mop up the trendy bohemian urban and student vote and get massacred in every other dynamic.
I went to see the sublimely brilliant jazz pianist Brad Mehdlau at the Norwich festival last night...I doubt there were many Tories there. The town centre had some anti Tory protesters too with the Newsnight juggernaut coming to town.
Not one Tory poster as far as I can see in the whole of the golden triangle too...
I've got a Labour Board out (for solidarity) and a Green, and I'm an undecided....
I haven't seen a Tory board either
Just the way I like it....my neighbour with the callous, clawed, baby bird murderer has a Green and Labour board, my other neighbour, a Green
BTW..we are working our way around veggie roasts on Sundays around the GT, something we missed in Italy, and would classify as follows in order of preference; Black Bull (superb); BellVue (great trimmings); Warwick Social (expensive); Garden House (stodgy); Unthank Arms (cold)....we've still got the York Tavern, Georgian TownHouse and Eagle left...Namaste Indian in town is fab though, great Thai takeaway too on Dereham Road, and the chippy in Stafford Street is sublime....
I think when the votes are counted, labour will mop up the trendy bohemian urban and student vote and get massacred in every other dynamic.
I went to see the sublimely brilliant jazz pianist Brad Mehdlau at the Norwich festival last night...I doubt there were many Tories there. The town centre had some anti Tory protesters too with the Newsnight juggernaut coming to town.
Not one Tory poster as far as I can see in the whole of the golden triangle too...
I've got a Labour Board out (for solidarity) and a Green, and I'm an undecided....
I haven't seen a Tory board either
Just the way I like it....my neighbour with the callous, clawed, baby bird murderer has a Green and Labour board, my other neighbour, a Green
BTW..we are working our way around veggie roasts on Sundays around the GT, something we missed in Italy, and would classify as follows in order of preference; Black Bull (superb); BellVue (great trimmings); Warwick Social (expensive); Garden House (stodgy); Unthank Arms (cold)....we've still got the York Tavern, Georgian TownHouse and Eagle left...Namaste Indian in town is fab though, great Thai takeaway too on Dereham Road, and the chippy in Stafford Street is sublime....
Take Thai is fabulous, a really top drawer takeaway. I'm getting dinner from there tomorrow as it happens! Stafford chippy has been one of the best since the 90s, queued out the door every Friday. If you like Chinese, Planet Wok on Dereham Rd is very good.
C'mon son, stop hiding behind pitiful squirrels and tell me about your 'journey' from red, white and blue Unionism through to supporting Scottish indy, and then back to full fat Yoon with added bigots, racists and kippers.
Politically & psychologically it'll be fascinating.
Care for the elderly is something that has been increasingly worrying my sister and i-both our parents are in their 70's and neither are in great health. Unfortunately they are of an attitude that their generation dont really discuss health, money, care etc with their children. Following yesterdays manifesto launch i called my father and we spoke on this subject for about 20 minutes. That is about 15 minutes longer than all my previous conversations combined.
Are the Conservative polices the right ones? I dont know-i am not an expert.
But from the conversation i have had with my father and by the numerous conversations that have gone on in my office today - the terms of debate have shifted. And in politics whoever sets the terms of the debate can usually expect to benefit.
Which way have the terms of the debate changed?
In several ways- firstly the sheer fact that the conversation is even being held for many is a change-i know i am not the only person of my age who has had difficulty getting elderly parent to discuss the issue. Openness about finances-both of the cost of the provision and how a family will fund it. Many people are actually surprisingly ignorant of what the costs are, the processes involved and the various levels of provision on offer.
All of the above will impact on the debate.
Look at PB over the last 24 hours-it is THE main subject from the manifesto that is being discussed.
IFS have report on the Dementia Tax proposal. Pretty damning conclusion:
"the Conservative plan makes no attempt to deal with the fundamental challenge of social care funding. That is the big problem – not how many people might win or lose."
The IFS is wrong about this. It presupposes that the problem is an insurance problem necessarily requiring extensive coverage. But there is no evidence that the public wants more than safety net coverage. It's seeking to force comprehensive insurance on people that apparently only want to pay for third party, fire and theft.
Don't pretend a unionist FM would be any cheaper. If the cost of the replaced unionist MPs are anything to go by, a unionist FM would be much more expensive (they would have to keep going down to London for their instructions, if nothing else).
It is quite clear that as a group the SNP MPs have cost less and contributed more in Parliament than those they replaced, so you should give up trying to prove the SNP are bigger troughers than the unionists because it simply isn't true.
I do not think it is .The lower middle classes with a three bed semi sort approx 200k might not agree with you.My understanding was you only had to pay for care at home if you had over 23k in cash your house was not taken into consideration.
Yes - the proposals benefit the estates of people who need to go into care homes, at the expense of the estates of (the much larger number of) people who need care at home. If that makes people go into care homes sooner where they'd otherwise have hung on at home, that's a perverse impact, but I'd guess that most people don't make life-changing decisions like that on the basis of what will maximise their estates.
A year in a nursing home costs around £40,000, residential care is around £30,000 while care at home costs a national average of £15 per hour, so someone receiving two hours care per day could expect to pay £11,000.
A single, working age person with severe disability can expect weekly welfare payments in the region of £300, a pensioner would get £350 roughly and a couple with one severely disabled member would get over £400 a week. This assumes no other incomes or sizeable savings.
If family are on the scene it's reasonable to expect that the number of hours of state/private care would be reduced.
It seems to me that the most critical thing with these care needs cases is that the people working with the families make sure they draw their full entitlements to ESA, PIP, Pension Credit etc and that they are given sound financial advice.
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Me, I'm off to Rome with the wife for her birthday. I expect you lot to have calmed down by the time I come back on Monday evening.
My question to Corbyn is why is he defending the wealthy who do not need the WFA and how is he going to provide free universal care for those in need.
There has been a lot of nonsense talked on here mainly because most do not know how the present system robs people of their home and takes virtually all their inheritance if they need long term care,.
This policy is a great improvement and shows a PM who is willing to take decisions in the public interest
The freebus pass i can see benefit in.
If he hadn't offered it, we might well have Miliband as PM, propped up in his minority administration by Sturgeon and Farron, and Cameron would have gone after the election, to be replaced by who knows who - Boris? May? Osborne? - or a less-well-known but purer Leave advocate?
Meanwhile, against a PM Miliband, an underwhelming Tory LotO and a lightweight Farron, UKIP and Farage would be pushing 20% in the polls.
The referendum wasn't the main issue of the 2015 general election but given how close the final result was, it might have made enough of a difference in enough marginals to have swung the contest.
Con 43.2%
Lab 29.8%
LD 14.9%
UKIP 4.5%
Green 4.1%
Ind 3.5%
http://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/electionresults/2017/Districts/broxtowe
No matter how poor kids are they get something to eat for lunch at school, but many of the most disadvantaged simply don't get a breakfast.
I wouldn't have expected Corbyn to be redistributing wealth from poor to rich, but that's how it reads...
@PaulBrandITV: A second Conservative also tells me "there's a lot of concern and confusion" about Tory social care pledges on doorstep #GE2017
Whatever happened to "BMW will make sure Merkel gives us a good deal" ?
Now "Merkel will make sure we are screwed" is a positive message...
You guys are unspoofable
Crushing Britain = negative
Removing Britain's competitive advantage from Brexit = positive
I will leave it until the last possible moment before actually voting and sending it off though.
(Actually I will take it to the council office personally)
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-vote-labour-and-get-a-free-kitten-my-general-election-focus-groups-with-three-weeks-to-go.html
Expect to see more mums at the school gate in jimjams and slippers!
"General Election 2010: Lib Dems aim for twenty Scottish seats"
http://www.scotsman.com/news/general-election-2010-lib-dems-aim-for-twenty-scottish-seats-1-802591
Pension Credit is rebranded Minimum Income Guarantee which was in itself was rebranded supplementary benefit.
Unfortunately they are of an attitude that their generation dont really discuss health, money, care etc with their children.
Following yesterdays manifesto launch i called my father and we spoke on this subject for about 20 minutes. That is about 15 minutes longer than all my previous conversations combined.
Are the Conservative polices the right ones? I dont know-i am not an expert.
But from the conversation i have had with my father and by the numerous conversations that have gone on in my office today - the terms of debate have shifted. And in politics whoever sets the terms of the debate can usually expect to benefit.
You should fight your corner, First Minister, in this election campaign and explain to Scottish voters that there is no shame in being outperformed by Slovenia – a highly intellectual nation – and that Scotland can also proudly claim to be doing as well as Latvia. It should further be borne in mind that Scotland labours under the handicap of being shackled to England, a connection that has weakened her sinews due to all the cash being funnelled north via the Barnett Formula and similar colonial devices to subvert the nation’s hardihood.
“A party that is now in its second term of office cannot avoid taking responsibility for its own failings.” Hey, what Unionist lickspittle said that? Oh, sorry, First Minister, of course it was you; but that was before you became First Minister and now your party is in its third term of office and Scotland has recorded its worst ever performance in education, which you wanted to be judged on. Tricky one for the spin team.
https://reaction.life/neglected-public-services-brexit-herald-snp-decline/
Interestingly the Muslim Council of Britain doesn't seem to have much of a problem with it.
“You can’t say now, can you, that there isn’t a choice between right and left.”
This one comment has convinced me that Corbyn is actually likely to be a better vote getter for Labour this election than a no-name grey suit Tory-lite Blairite such as Owen Smith would have been.
Based on this, I think the Tories will get a very healthy majority but not an absolute landslide.
It's very bad news for the Lib Dems, a real return to a two party squeeze, and Farron's EU-pipsqueak approach is a huge misjudgement.
I think politics are like BMWs. They often look good on paper or on the website or even in the showroom, but they lose their appeal when you look at the ghastly parvenu self-regarding oiks who actually own and drive them.
Likewise with politics and political choices we tend to judge them by the politicians associated with them. We hear an idea and then scorn it not on its merits but because it's a Tory idea (or whatever). Or we hear of a policy and think it sounds great but then we realise it's a Labour policy and they will screw it up somehow.
I don't know what the answer to this is, but I think you just did it and I think it is how May can get away with pinching policies from Ed Miliband and from UKIP.
Thanks for that article from Gerald Warner the former policy adviser to Michael Forsyth when that Tory Secretary of State for Scotland led his Scottish branch to political wipeout in 1997.
I am sure his finger is on the pulse of Scottish politics today :-)
Great.
Education. I remain to be convinced that conditions are remotely as dire as portrayed because the outcome of the Highers, the most definitive standard of education in Scotland at the point when most leave school, continue to produce improved results.
*cough*grade inflation*cough*
A neat riposte-but I don't think a wipeout for the SNP is coming any time soon.
the SNP is in a unique position which means this election – and any election – matters enormously, more than for any other party. The SNP’s success has depended on momentum. Once that momentum is not only halted but reversed, the jig is up. The headline “SNP losses” is fatal to public perception of a supposedly irresistible surge towards independence.
On his desk for 40-odd years my father kept a figurine painted for him by my late brother in childhood. According to its name plate it was a Royal North British Dragoon ("Scots Grey"). AIUI for quite a long time post 1707 Scotland was a geographical expression, like Italy before Garibaldi.
What does that tell you?
It is simply a fact that there has never been evidence of grade inflation being quite the scale of problem in Scotland as in England-though it certainly exists, or I am a lot thicker than many of my younger relatives which is not something I am rushing to concede :-)
Not one Tory poster as far as I can see in the whole of the golden triangle too...
I've got a Labour Board out (for solidarity) and a Green, and I'm an undecided....
Limited canvassing (phone and personal) and activistic instincts on sniffing the wind are that the Blues will takes votes in sufficiently large numbers from i) UKIP ii) WWC ex-Labour and iii) anti Corbynite LD's that there will be very few Con loss and substantial Con gains particularly in West Midlands, Yorks & Humber and NE.
In 2015 all Con attention here focused on Bedford and MK South. Its now all going to Luton South. Kelvin (who many Tories around here mostly like despite his Corbynism because of his Leave efforts) will survive because of the much changed demographic in Luton.
WillS.
It tells me education remains a political football, and the emphasis on it is because it appears to be the one area in which a chink of weakness in the SNP armoury has become available for unionists to attack.
The unionists say very little about the Scottish NHS because that performs much better than in England or Wales as do most other areas where it is possible to attempt comparisons.
£7000 on flights for Mrs McTurnip......
"the Conservative plan makes no attempt to deal with the fundamental challenge of social care funding. That is the big problem – not how many people might win or lose."
http://election2017.ifs.org.uk/article/social-care-a-step-forwards-or-a-step-backwards
http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
Only a matter of time, eh?
For me, that's a fun day out.
BTW..we are working our way around veggie roasts on Sundays around the GT, something we missed in Italy, and would classify as follows in order of preference;
Black Bull (superb); BellVue (great trimmings); Warwick Social (expensive); Garden House (stodgy); Unthank Arms (cold)....we've still got the York Tavern, Georgian TownHouse and Eagle left...Namaste Indian in town is fab though, great Thai takeaway too on Dereham Road, and the chippy in Stafford Street is sublime....
If you like Chinese, Planet Wok on Dereham Rd is very good.
Doesn't seem massively excessive, assuming biz class.
C'mon son, stop hiding behind pitiful squirrels and tell me about your 'journey' from red, white and blue Unionism through to supporting Scottish indy, and then back to full fat Yoon with added bigots, racists and kippers.
Politically & psychologically it'll be fascinating.
Openness about finances-both of the cost of the provision and how a family will fund it. Many people are actually surprisingly ignorant of what the costs are, the processes involved and the various levels of provision on offer.
All of the above will impact on the debate.
Look at PB over the last 24 hours-it is THE main subject from the manifesto that is being discussed.
Perhaps it was originally delivered saying "Forward Comrades"?
I'll give you clue, it's not very hard.
Watch the clip. She says it. A lot.
http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
Even you can work it out, unless you are yet another damning indictment of the Scottish education system.
https://twitter.com/scottynational/status/865589838271172608
Don't pretend a unionist FM would be any cheaper. If the cost of the replaced unionist MPs are anything to go by, a unionist FM would be much more expensive (they would have to keep going down to London for their instructions, if nothing else).
It is quite clear that as a group the SNP MPs have cost less and contributed more in Parliament than those they replaced, so you should give up trying to prove the SNP are bigger troughers than the unionists because it simply isn't true.
A single, working age person with severe disability can expect weekly welfare payments in the region of £300, a pensioner would get £350 roughly and a couple with one severely disabled member would get over £400 a week. This assumes no other incomes or sizeable savings.
If family are on the scene it's reasonable to expect that the number of hours of state/private care would be reduced.
https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/care-home-or-home-care
It seems to me that the most critical thing with these care needs cases is that the people working with the families make sure they draw their full entitlements to ESA, PIP, Pension Credit etc and that they are given sound financial advice.
Squirrel is not the right answer. You got the first letter right, though.
Do you want to have another go?