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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that standard GE2017 polls are for GB only and exclud
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that standard GE2017 polls are for GB only and exclude Northern Ireland
With 20 days to go it is time for my regular general election reminder to punters betting on vote shares. The standard voting intention surveys that we see are, unless stated otherwise, for Great Britain only and exclude Northern Ireland. This is because politics in the province operates with a very different party structure and generally GB based parties do not compete.
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It's going mammary glands up for the Tories with the dementia tax.
ab195 said:
I think the PM can live with a few "we need to rob the geriatric Peter to look after just about managing Paul" stories. You'll be able to tell if Sir Lynton is involved, and concerned, when we see a personal attack on Corbyn/McDonnell on the Sunday political TV to move the story on.
Michael Fallon is usually wheeled out to do those, but after his dismal performance against Emily "Honey Lips" Thornberry, I doubt the odious Crosby will be beating down his door.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/14/general-election-2017-may-promises-homes-for-generation-rent-politics-live
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/865533708706512896
Make of that what you will.
I'm expecting a manifesto bounce.
Few metropolitan posters on here get Mrs May (Al Meeks is an exception) - she isn't appealing to you, she is appealing to people who live outside of cities and don't really like them very much.....
I am calm.
Klaxons at the ready, or not?
The SNP will be delighted with her.
Older people/Parents like leaving their kids their house tax free.
This policy will noble, does the opppsite.
Indeed if Labour turns its ground war onto the issue (targeted letters to pensioners from candidates in target seats etc.) this will take a week or more to show through.
I think if Corbyn builds up enough momentum - pun intended - then he may well keep gaining right up until election day. Why? Because the Conservatives clearly haven't planned for this eventuality and will start to panic. They will go hard on a negative campign focused on Corbyn, failing to read the mood of the nation is one of change, that we are sick of the negativity, etc, and the nasty party, the party of fox hunting and the dementia tax, will look even nastier.
I don't think Labour will win. But this could be a hell of a lot closer than we were predicting last week.
And 2022, on a hard left manifesto, with a more palatable leader than Corbyn, suddenly looks very much in play.
Without it we could list all US State legislatures and half a dozen in Europe.
Sandpit said:
» show previous quotes
Agree with you completely about the social care reforms, if there was one issue that needed some political capital spent on it, then social care is probably that issue right now.
What does need to happen though, is a detailed briefing paper handed to every Conservative that's going to touch the media this weekend, before opponents of the proposal trash it as "Dementia Tax" - especially when those opponents didn't have the balls to propose any reform of the currently broken system in their own manifestos.
My reply
I couldn't agree more. If the Tories go from landslide to working majority and the social care question is addressed then I regard it as a job well done. No political party has given serious thought about this for decades. At least T May has the balls to propose something.
Some people will be pissed off. Others will recognise that social care will become unaffordable without changes.
Perhaps they've got footage of Corbyn meeting bin Laden.
Both Corbyn and bin Laden are Arsenal fans, perhaps they met up at Highbury one time and there's photos!
When we leave the European Union and its Common Fisheries Policy, we will be fully responsible for the access and management of the waters where we have historically exercised sovereign control. A new Conservative government will work with the shing industry and with our world-class marine scientists, as well as the devolved administrations, to introduce a new regime for commercial shing that will preserve and increase sh stocks and help to ensure prosperity for a new generation of shermen. To provide complete legal certainty to our neighbours and clarity during our negotiations with the European Union, we will withdraw from the London Fisheries Convention. We will continue our work to conserve the marine environment o the coast of the United Kingdom.
Wonder what Angus Robertson thinks about that......(the London Fisheries Convention pre-dates the CFP and allows boats from other countries access to waters from 6-12 miles - some Fishermen were worried that would remain in place: http://ffl.org.uk/brexit-backtrack-with-historic-rights/ - a worry that has proved unfounded)
Dementia is the biggest killer, and care homes aren't free..
That's always been an anomaly.
So May is noble in tackling it and I don't think it will do a great deal of damage to her majority, largely because Corbyn is so toxic.
I do take issue wit May's bleak and boring style though.
I wish she'd come up with something the working classes could really get their teeth into - likely announcing that she will make sure a million new homes are built by 2022. Something radical to boost the building trade etc.
It all seems very 'Life is shit. It will continue to be shit. I'm the best at managing shit'.
Not particularly appealing,
We've had a modest Labour bounce and the Tories sticking on the high 40s. We've also, as yet, had precisely zero post-manifesto polling.
Why is everyone acting like the sky is falling in?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/3600198/hollywood-legend-danny-devito-becomes-biggest-and-most-bizarre-celebrity-endorsement-of-the-election-by-backing-jeremy-corbyn/amp/
It would be very funny if there's footage somewhere of Corbyn and OBL, but I doubt it. I also don't doubt that CCHQ (and GCHQ, MI5, MI6 come to that) has a large filing cabinet of shit labelled "Jeremy Corbyn" that's going to be emptied on to the table the week after next.
At some point in the journey from the past up to today it seems to have become the responsibility of other people (a.k.a. the state) to look after our parents or at least to pay for it. On top of health and welfare benefits. The slightly better off have got used to being fleeced up to a point but they clearly want something back from 'other people' too.
No section of society thinks they are the ones who should pony for waht we all now feel entitled to. We seem to be arriving at the moment in history when we are going to have to decide if we intend to pay for the things we want or not.
If the Tories win it - that way lies pain and a rebalancing away from previously happy customers who didn't think they were underpaying.
If Labour win it - that way lies agony. We'll be bankrupt and we'll get to enjoy the generosity with other people's money the same way Greece and Venezuela do.
I thought rail nationalisation was particularly popular with the Baby Boomers?
And these Wealthy pensioners with 100s of 1000s to lose. They gonna go Corbyn? Nope.
The briefing to that morning's press seems to have all been about no longer having to sell up, which was good, but overall the document and speech seemed to have had too little editorial comment from others.
Maths clearly not your strong suit.
Anyway, the care costs were £580 per week. So do the math on that. It wouldn't take long to rack up £100k. And I know some of the people on his floor have been in there over a decade.
Which illuminates the other worrying point, normally hidden behind the dementia curtain, that caring for old people is costing an absolute fucking fortune.... and it is rising and rising.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040697
For those of us who think she'll ride a storm which only exists in the minds of the metropolitan elites, there's nearly six figures available at 1.08 to back the Tory majority.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
Now that I have spent 1.5mins thinking about it, I'm not so sure Burnham's "death tax" was such a bad idea - a set amount from everyones' estate after a certain threshold.
But we are where we are. Do wealthy Cons pensioners really think that they will be in safer hands with Lab?
The thought of getting dementia concerns me (my grandma had it for many years), and my illness last year gave me a glimpse of how frightening it can be to not live in the brain that you're used to (though that was very different in effect to dementia).
If I was ever to become very sick from an unrecoverable illness I think I would rather die (and perhaps be better off dead). I totally understand that this is not a choice everyone should make, and should only be made with access to full, impartial information. But I think if I had a legal form in front of me, asking if I would want to be 'put to sleep' rather than (as an example) live in a long-term coma (e.g. PVS), then I would discuss it with Mrs J, and be tempted to sign it.
We have Advance Decision / Living Wills, but they specifically preclude euthanasia.
This is an amazingly emotive issue, so I hope this hasn't offended anyone.
And that's going to piss people off no matter how you do it.
My old man wouldn't have wanted to live like he was. It was undignified, humiliating, bewildering and full of suffering.
As some super-duper brain surgeon said on the radio the other day, we shouldn't be scared of death, but we should fear dying, because we are irrational about it, and allow ourselves and our relatives to suffer unnecessarily, believing suffering alive to be better than death.
We get better and better at keeping people living, but quality of life which matter more and more to people.
A clear Conservative victory, but with serious implications for people who bet on a landslide. As well as implications for next Labour leader market and so on.
Dementia tax. Dementia tax. Just say it out loud once or twice. Slogan-wise it seems very likely to cut through and spread by word of mouth and social media. The next round of polling will be very interesting.
https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/865135723393019904
The alternative is the sort of parsimonious half care people get at the moment with Carers rushing in and out of houses having lifted someone into a chair or put them back into a bed or rushing some food down them or wiping an arse without any chance at all of having a conversation or a cup of tea or a laugh before they race to their next appointment. And that's for those lucky enough to get any help at all.
I said yesterday and this morning that this Manifesto is brave in the Yes Minister sense and I am slightly apprehensive about how it will be received and perceived. But I really don't see a viable alternative. We need billions and billions extra for Social Care. As the proportion of our elderly increase where is it going to come from?
Afternoon all
To move on a little and subject to the Black Swan of the greatest polling comeback since Truman beat Dewey in '48, three weeks today Theresa May will be returning from the Palace and the triumphalism of some on here will know no bounds.
For those for whom supporting a political party is akin to supporting a football team, the Blues will be triumphant and the Reds and Oranges will less be assessing their losses than counting their dead and having to listen to an unending litany of jibes and gloating.
So be it, one day it'll be the other way round as sure as night follows day.
How though will the Opposition parties respond to defeat ?
As always, a lot will depend on how bad it is. The Conservative experience post 1997 might suggest the bigger the defeat the more the survivors turn inward for comfort and mutual support but whether that will be true of Labour this time is debatable.
The question is whether something will happen immediately or develop over time - the seeds of the SDP schism existed in 1979 but it took another 18 months before the probability of a breakaway became evident. In 1987, Steel moved immediately on the question of merger and set an unfortunate agenda which turned out badly for all involved.
It's obvious to infer the bigger the size of the Parliamentary Labour Party, the more likely Corbyn's survival but there is a "sweet spot" if you will where the defeat is so bad as to make enough MPs recognise their chances of advancement are nil as long as Corbyn (or someone like him) is in charge. Is there a Kinnock-like figure (though not Stephen Kinnock) who can win from the Left and lead from the Right and effectively turn on those who supported him/her or is the only alternative schism perhaps before or soon after the Party Conference?
As for the LDs, their historic low is 6 seats (1951, 1955 and 1970). Going lower than that (especially to 0-3) would present a huge challenge. Two thirds of those currently in the LDs joined after 2015 - the Party I joined in 1981 is gone. Could such a small rump survive ? Yes, in the short term but IF Labour does schism, the temptation to join forces with the new breakaway group will be very strong (there was a deal of tension in many areas between the Liberals and SDP in the early days).
It's also possible a new centre-left party would find recruits outside politics who would be the glue binding this perhaps initially disparate group together. The question is whether such a new group could be the initial repository for disillusioned Conservative voters post 2017.
As the song goes, there are always more questions than answers...
It strikes me as the kind of marketing that is a bit too clever by half: the slogan sounds superficially good but when you drill down, it doesn't make sense without a whole lot of explanation.
Do any of these wise sages have any views on how AI and technology may help reduce the cost of care, either in the home or in care homes?
It should be noted that in a few Northern Ireland constituencies the Tories have put up candidates which should boost their UK voting share but not their GB one.
To clarify, the Tories putting up candidates in NI will boost their UK marginally, compared with not running candidates there. However, their UK share will still be lower than the GB one.