politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure on the President heralds the return of Marf
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Bolsover is Conservative target no 137, with a Labour majority in excess of 25%. I suspect that this is a diversionary attack to spook Labour MPs, and try to make the party spread its resources unnecessarily thin.CommanderShepard said:
What did I say earlier about 70 gains - I may have called it too low!Scott_P said:@hzeffman: Tories sent a cabinet minister to campaign in Bolsover today. Yes, Dennis Skinner's Bolsover https://twitter.com/helenharrisonuk/status/864816150340829184
If Skinner went we'd be looking at something approaching a 1931-style wipeout for Labour. I don't believe they're doing quite as well as some of the polling companies suggest, but I certainly don't think they're doing that badly, either.
EDIT: That said, Llanelli (the next seat down the list, with more complex dynamics due to a strong Plaid presence) could potentially develop into a three-way marginal, depending on the extent of Labour softening/Ukip collapse. Stranger things have happened...0 -
But the council elections were not local elections. They were turned into a national election by the prancing self importance of the Unionist demanding that it was a proxy referendum on independence.kle4 said:
Not quite as harsh then, but not by much- saying you cannot deviate from a position despite local circumstances, allowing local parties to decide if it is necessary in those local circumstances.OUT said:
It's not flat out against the rules.kle4 said:
Preventing the SNP from taking power is not the key element, at least as far as I'm concerned. Local parties sometimes need to set aside bullshit and work together, even with people they'd rather not. Making it just flat out against the rules is unreasonable no matter who does it, to prevent no matter who.Scott_P said:Tory candidate in Aberdeen North
@Grace_E_OKeeffe: Absolutely shocking by Labour. Punishing their own cllrs for preventing the SNP from taking power. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/864878760008593410
It's the deal between the two parties that led to the suspension.
No compulsory council redundancies is SLABS position.
That was not guaranteed in this case.0 -
Are those TSE's famous red shoes?OblitusSumMe said:I wouldn't normally comment on a politician's clothing, but I do like these shoes.
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Faisal was getting completely drowned out by the music. I think when he asked to be close to the speaker, he meant Mr Farron!FrancisUrquhart said:Are we sure the sky cameras arent at a secret bananarama reunion gig?
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I agree I don't see it myself, but just like targeting Westmoreland, it diverts enemy resources away from the real strategic targets and end up defending bits you have no interest in.Black_Rook said:
Bolsover is Conservative target no 137, with a Labour majority in excess of 25%. I suspect that this is a diversionary attack to spook Labour MPs, and try to make the party spread its resources unnecessarily thin.CommanderShepard said:
What did I say earlier about 70 gains - I may have called it too low!Scott_P said:@hzeffman: Tories sent a cabinet minister to campaign in Bolsover today. Yes, Dennis Skinner's Bolsover https://twitter.com/helenharrisonuk/status/864816150340829184
If Skinner went we'd be looking at something approaching a 1931-style wipeout for Labour. I don't believe they're doing quite as well as some of the polling companies suggest, but I certainly don't think they're doing that badly, either.0 -
Unless of course Crosby knows something we don't.0
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Seems pretty rubbish to me too. I am getting occasional ads from all parties, perhaps because I have friends across all parties. Mostly the usual heartwarming stuff, cat videos, selfies and holiday snapsBigRich said:
The targeting on possible with Online adverts is great but I'm not seeing it targeted very well this year. On Facebook, I'm getting adds for Labour, and on Non-Facebook sits, I'm getting lots of Lib Dem adverts. which considering I've liked A lode of Libertarian things on Facebook e.g. IEA, and visit a number of Libertarian websites sights, does make me wonder how much effort they are putting in.CommanderShepard said:
Its all micro targeting on Facebook now. Better reach and cheaper than lots of posters.franklyn said:In previous elections (even in 2015 when he lost) Simon Hughes' constituency was a sea of orange posters. Yesterday I saw none. It may reflect the fact that people don't do posters much these days, but doesn't bode well for him .
For what its worth I'm not seeing many Conservative adds ether. anybody else seeing political adds they where not expecting?0 -
Wells at 1-5 with Totesport.Black_Rook said:
Wells and Yeovil both have healthy Tory majorities now (about 5.5K and 7.5K respectively.) Mendip was split pretty much evenly in the EU referendum; South Somerset voted nearly 60:40 to Leave. Ukip was third in both seats in 2015 and has withdrawn in both seats this time around. The Lib Dems stand next to no chance of retaking either.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
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Labour can still be over 100 seats and lose Bolsover I think.
Less safe than Leeds East for instance.0 -
SLID coalition with SCON in Perth & Angus !Black_Rook said:
I doubt it myself, but it's not wholly inconceivable. If the polls are to be believed (and I'm still not entirely convinced) then the Lib Dems' anti-Ukip strategy has completely failed, the party is being badly squeezed in England again, and the Welsh Lib Dems are in an even worse state.Pulpstar said:
Me too.rcs1000 said:
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.kle4 said:
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.TheScreamingEagles said:
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?Scott_P said:@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
In Scotland, however, whilst they're still niche they do appear to have a role in the system - as the Unionist party for voters who are still so repelled by the Conservatives that they need an alternative (and which is also moderate, and thus can simultaneously appeal to ordinary Conservative voters to lend it their support in FPTP contests where their own preferred candidate is weak.) A worse than expected SNP performance could see the Lib Dems make four or possibly even five gains.0 -
@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?0
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PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).Cyclefree said:rcs1000 said:
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.CommanderShepard said:
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.rcs1000 said:
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.Pulpstar said:
As of right now ?rcs1000 said:
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.Pulpstar said:
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something likenunu said:Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
8 Gains from the SNP
3 Gains from the Lib Dems
1 Gain from Plaid
80 Gains from Labour.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal.
Cambridge marginal.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.0 -
I thought Dennis Skinner was one of only about 10 Lab MPs to support Brexit, (I might be wrong) it may be that a lot of people do not know what their local MP supported at the referendum, but I would have thought a well establish MP like Skinner would be more well know than most.CommanderShepard said:Bolsover 2015
LAB
22,542
51.2%
CON
10,764
24.5%
UKIP
9,228
21.0%
LIB
1,464
3.3%
71% leave in the referendum. Would need all of UKIP to move straight to Tories and squeeze the labour vote. Its a WWC seat and if it falls then Labour are getting pounded like the French/Spanish fleet at Trafalgar.
I would have thought the visit of crises Grayling to Bolsover, was:
1. Boost moral of Tory activists/supporters across the UK.
2. Scare sitting Lab MPs so that they end up hording activists even in ultra safe lab seats.
3. eat up any spare seconds of news time that might otherwise be used to give coverage to UKIP/LIbDems0 -
As a direct result of Sturgeon's pure political calculation in saying that the UK voting to leave the EU (including 37% of SNP voters) meant that she had to call a second independence vote just 3 years after the nationalists had lost the first one!Alistair said:
But the council elections were not local elections. They were turned into a national election by the prancing self importance of the Unionist demanding that it was a proxy referendum on independence.kle4 said:
Not quite as harsh then, but not by much- saying you cannot deviate from a position despite local circumstances, allowing local parties to decide if it is necessary in those local circumstances.OUT said:
It's not flat out against the rules.kle4 said:
Preventing the SNP from taking power is not the key element, at least as far as I'm concerned. Local parties sometimes need to set aside bullshit and work together, even with people they'd rather not. Making it just flat out against the rules is unreasonable no matter who does it, to prevent no matter who.Scott_P said:Tory candidate in Aberdeen North
@Grace_E_OKeeffe: Absolutely shocking by Labour. Punishing their own cllrs for preventing the SNP from taking power. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/864878760008593410
It's the deal between the two parties that led to the suspension.
No compulsory council redundancies is SLABS position.
That was not guaranteed in this case.0 -
Prehaps Ealing Central aswell.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ditto Hampstead and Kiliburn and Westminster North?Pulpstar said:
That's about it though. EcAA might be a Lab hold that will feel like a gain to themTheScreamingEagles said:
Croydon Central for starters.Pulpstar said:Do the blues have any inner London seats vulnerable to Labour on a small swing ?
In 83 Tories loss was Cathcart and a few other left trending cities.
Edit - Well it is London.0 -
Rookers do you know what number Birmingham Selly Oak is on the Tory target list? Only enquiring as I know the candidate and impressive young lady she is too.Black_Rook said:
Bolsover is Conservative target no 137, with a Labour majority in excess of 25%. I suspect that this is a diversionary attack to spook Labour MPs, and try to make the party spread its resources unnecessarily thin.CommanderShepard said:
What did I say earlier about 70 gains - I may have called it too low!Scott_P said:@hzeffman: Tories sent a cabinet minister to campaign in Bolsover today. Yes, Dennis Skinner's Bolsover https://twitter.com/helenharrisonuk/status/864816150340829184
If Skinner went we'd be looking at something approaching a 1931-style wipeout for Labour. I don't believe they're doing quite as well as some of the polling companies suggest, but I certainly don't think they're doing that badly, either.
EDIT: That said, Llanelli (the next seat down the list, with more complex dynamics due to a strong Plaid presence) could potentially develop into a three-way marginal, depending on the extent of Labour softening/Ukip collapse. Stranger things have happened...0 -
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?HYUFD said:
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airportswilliamglenn said:Likely successor to Enda Kenny to push for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market:
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-to-push-for-north-to-stay-in-single-market-if-he-wins-fg-race-35714653.html0 -
I do hope so.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
But at this point may can hold out the possibility of cabinet position similtainiasly to lots of MPs0 -
Vatican City?PaulM said:
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?HYUFD said:
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airportswilliamglenn said:Likely successor to Enda Kenny to push for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market:
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-to-push-for-north-to-stay-in-single-market-if-he-wins-fg-race-35714653.html0 -
Good. He's humbly served out his penance on the back benches, need big brains like Gove back in the cabinet.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
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what aboutPulpstar said:Labour can still be over 100 seats and lose Bolsover I think.
Less safe than Leeds East for instance.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bassetlaw/0 -
Iceland has had one:PaulM said:
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?HYUFD said:
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airportswilliamglenn said:Likely successor to Enda Kenny to push for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market:
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-to-push-for-north-to-stay-in-single-market-if-he-wins-fg-race-35714653.html
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/04/27/iceland-worlds-first-openly-gay-prime-minister-quits-politics/0 -
If Con Gain Bolsover then whatever's left of the Labour Party wreckage after the election might just as well pack up and go home...0
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While you shouldn't read too much into it, the LibDems are convinced they'll regain John Thurso's old Caithness seatBlack_Rook said:
I doubt it myself, but it's not wholly inconceivable. If the polls are to be believed (and I'm still not entirely convinced) then the Lib Dems' anti-Ukip strategy has completely failed, the party is being badly squeezed in England again, and the Welsh Lib Dems are in an even worse state.Pulpstar said:
Me too.rcs1000 said:
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.kle4 said:
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.TheScreamingEagles said:
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?Scott_P said:@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
In Scotland, however, whilst they're still niche they do appear to have a role in the system - as the Unionist party for voters who are still so repelled by the Conservatives that they need an alternative (and which is also moderate, and thus can simultaneously appeal to ordinary Conservative voters to lend it their support in FPTP contests where their own preferred candidate is weak.) A worse than expected SNP performance could see the Lib Dems make four or possibly even five gains.0 -
The current PM of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel is, a former Icelandic and Belgian PM were openly homosexual tooSandyRentool said:
Vatican City?PaulM said:
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?HYUFD said:
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airportswilliamglenn said:Likely successor to Enda Kenny to push for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market:
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-to-push-for-north-to-stay-in-single-market-if-he-wins-fg-race-35714653.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xavier_Bettel0 -
Hanretty's forecast was, IIRC, quite badly out last time. This time around the central forecast includes such gems as the Tories winning well over 400 seats yet getting practically nowhere in Scotland, Labour with a 50% or greater chance of taking three Welsh seats FROM the Tories, but also, at the same time, a near certain victory for the Conservatives against Plaid in Dwyfor Meirionydd. It's crackers.MTimT said:fpt
Eastwinger said:
Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.
Is Lewis citing this Hanratty analysis in his election collateral?
Lamb is in serious trouble but there's little likelihood of Clive Lewis going, even in a Labour bloodbath. Even if he can't squeeze the Lib Dem vote, he'll almost certainly win over a lot of the Greens.0 -
Not sure if you have seen this before:Cyclefree said:rcs1000 said:
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.CommanderShepard said:
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.rcs1000 said:
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.Pulpstar said:
As of right now ?rcs1000 said:
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.Pulpstar said:
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something likenunu said:Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
8 Gains from the SNP
3 Gains from the Lib Dems
1 Gain from Plaid
80 Gains from Labour.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal.
Cambridge marginal.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
"Anyone know how I can cancel an eBay bid? I put 3 quid on a Cowboy Outfit and now I'm 6 minutes away from owning the Labour Party"0 -
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Bolsover - Through the Six Pollster UNS Switcher
Labour 16013 votes
Tory 15218 votes
Based on 61.2% turnout - the referendum was 72.3%
Game on!0 -
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.nunu said:
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).Cyclefree said:rcs1000 said:
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.CommanderShepard said:
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.rcs1000 said:
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.Pulpstar said:
As of right now ?rcs1000 said:
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.Pulpstar said:
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something likenunu said:Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
8 Gains from the SNP
3 Gains from the Lib Dems
1 Gain from Plaid
80 Gains from Labour.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal.
Cambridge marginal.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?0 -
I think Labour will hold it, Skinner had 51% last time though it is possible Bolsover could go Tory but Wirral South could stay Labour and Kingston Upon Thames go LD, in 1992 the 1st seat was Labour and the latter 2 ToryGIN1138 said:If Con Gain Bolsover then whatever's left of the Labour Party wreckage after the election might just as well pack up and go home...
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Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...Peter_the_Punter said:
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.nunu said:
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).Cyclefree said:rcs1000 said:
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.CommanderShepard said:
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.rcs1000 said:
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.Pulpstar said:
As of right now ?rcs1000 said:
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.Pulpstar said:
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something likenunu said:Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
8 Gains from the SNP
3 Gains from the Lib Dems
1 Gain from Plaid
80 Gains from Labour.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal.
Cambridge marginal.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?0 -
Don't believe it for a second. The Conservatives would be most unlikely to sweep up the entire Ukip vote even if they weren't fielding a candidate - and they are still standing in Bolsover.chestnut said:Bolsover - Through the Six Pollster UNS Switcher
Labour 16013 votes
Tory 15218 votes
There really ought to be some direct Lab-Con swing, and a higher abstention rate amongst remaining Labour voters. But even so, surely not enough against a majority of that size?0 -
More seriously, Belgium, Luxembourg and IcelandSandyRentool said:
Vatican City?PaulM said:
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?HYUFD said:
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airportswilliamglenn said:Likely successor to Enda Kenny to push for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market:
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-to-push-for-north-to-stay-in-single-market-if-he-wins-fg-race-35714653.html0 -
Neasden (Sean T) is in Brent Central-1
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Merkel warns UK will pay a price for limiting EU immigration
https://www.ft.com/content/8489e4a2-3b23-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec0 -
I have a theory that I hadn't yet tested as to why SLab's vote share held up relatively well despite electoral apocalypse being predicted at the council elections. I think SLab's voter base has aged dramatically as they've lost younger, but less likely to vote, voters to the SNP. Would also explain the SNP's disappointing performance.0
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Stirling council headache for SCON & SLAB !! - Now - 9 SNP - 7 SCON - 4 SLAB - 1 Green
https://twitter.com/MammothWhale/status/8647532884655267850 -
@iainjwatson: Suspended Labour councillors in Aberdeen have rebranded themselves 'Aberdeen Labour' & continue arrangement with Cons says @BBCCatrionaR0
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The numbers are based on 2015 voters responses to pollsters saying they have made up their minds - and the assumption is 42% switching from UKIP to Tory, and that a third of 2015 Labour voters currently refuse to pledge for 2017 Labour.Black_Rook said:
Don't believe it for a second. The Conservatives would be most unlikely to sweep up the entire Ukip vote even if they weren't fielding a candidate - and they are still standing in Bolsover.chestnut said:Bolsover - Through the Six Pollster UNS Switcher
Labour 16013 votes
Tory 15218 votes
There really ought to be some direct Lab-Con swing, and a higher abstention rate amongst remaining Labour voters. But even so, surely not enough against a majority of that size?
There are "undecideds" to be added to those base numbers,
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Sounds like West Lothian Labour have followed Aberdeen. Decision tomorrow if they have been suspended as well0
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I had a look into that. Their new candidate was a strong second in the Holyrood seat last year; a bit of softening of the SNP vote and some Unionist tactical voting (nobody else is close in this seat, which improves the chances of that happening,) and he might just do it.rcs1000 said:While you shouldn't read too much into it, the LibDems are convinced they'll regain John Thurso's old Caithness seat
Nonetheless, would require a swing of a little over 5.5%.0 -
£350m a week?williamglenn said:Merkel warns UK will pay a price for limiting EU immigration
https://www.ft.com/content/8489e4a2-3b23-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec0 -
My MP, John Cryer (Lab: Wanstead & Leyton), supported Brexit. He'll be doing without my vote this time as a result but I doubt he'll miss it.BigRich said:
I thought Dennis Skinner was one of only about 10 Lab MPs to support Brexit, (I might be wrong) it may be that a lot of people do not know what their local MP supported at the referendum, but I would have thought a well establish MP like Skinner would be more well know than most.CommanderShepard said:Bolsover 2015
LAB
22,542
51.2%
CON
10,764
24.5%
UKIP
9,228
21.0%
LIB
1,464
3.3%
71% leave in the referendum. Would need all of UKIP to move straight to Tories and squeeze the labour vote. Its a WWC seat and if it falls then Labour are getting pounded like the French/Spanish fleet at Trafalgar.
I would have thought the visit of crises Grayling to Bolsover, was:
1. Boost moral of Tory activists/supporters across the UK.
2. Scare sitting Lab MPs so that they end up hording activists even in ultra safe lab seats.
3. eat up any spare seconds of news time that might otherwise be used to give coverage to UKIP/LIbDems
Curiously, the reason he gave for his position on Brexit was that the EU was an undemocratic institution, which some might consider a bit rich. He is an intelligent man though with a good reputation as a constituency MP, which makes me suspect his views may have more to do with the possibility of deselection by his local membership, but I'm not sufficiently involved locally to do more than speculate.0 -
It's ironic that when PB had a straw poll shortly after the election in 2010 asking which Cabinet Minister would be the first out I voted for Theresa May on the basis that Home Secretaries never last long and also that she was hopeless.
0 -
Suggested he could be next Chancellor only this morning.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
Even Osborne would like that.0 -
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.williamglenn said:Merkel warns UK will pay a price for limiting EU immigration
https://www.ft.com/content/8489e4a2-3b23-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
What could possibly go wrong?
0 -
The woman certainly has staying power...Roger said:It's ironic that when PB had a straw poll shortly after the election in 2010 asking which Cabinet Minister would be the first out I voted for Theresa May on the basis that Home Secretaries never last long and also that she was hopeless.
0 -
There you go. The inept Scottish Labour leadership now has to play whac-a-mole with rebel independent parties, as well as being squeezed in a vice between the SNP and Conservatives. Slow hand claps for Kezia.Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: Suspended Labour councillors in Aberdeen have rebranded themselves 'Aberdeen Labour' & continue arrangement with Cons says @BBCCatrionaR
0 -
Just finished a canvassing session with the team in Torbay.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
I can confirm that the LibDem "Second Referendum" is going down badly here in the SW. I personally had direct LibDems --> Tory switchers tonight specifically citing it.
I can also confirm that the UKIP vote has died. Vanished. It's going to Theresa May (not the Tories as such - but same effect, of course).
Labour vote appears quite strong. We were in what should have been a less than promising part of the constituency, so the "not your lot!" responses could mask some Labour --> LibDems movement, but it did feel more like the previous huge Labour tactical voting that won the LibDems the seat until 2015 was unwinding.
To be fair, I did also find a former Tory-voting NHS worker who we have now lost. Not sure how she would vote, but not Tory this time.
Still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" yet in 2017....
Your Man In The Bay
0 -
Rogerdamus lives up to his reputation!Roger said:It's ironic that when PB had a straw poll shortly after the election in 2010 asking which Cabinet Minister would be the first out I voted for Theresa May on the basis that Home Secretaries never last long and also that she was hopeless.
0 -
Two friends of mine who were planning to vote Lib Dem switched to the Greens today over the 2nd referendum pledge. And they both detest Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
I'm not joking. And, no, I don't understand it.
They just think Farron is a joke and not serious.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
Suggested he could be next Chancellor only this morning.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
Even Osborne would like that.
Even I commented yesterday (or possibly the day before) that he would be back in at some point, although I seen him taking Hunt's job personally.Casino_Royale said:
Suggested he could be next Chancellor only this morning.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
Even Osborne would like that.0 -
Is he really promising to go to war with Spain?FrancisUrquhart said:Farron started well then he has gone all hyperbolic...End of the nhs, war with spain,...
I never thought I'd ever consider voting LD but they've just found my price.0 -
That'll be because Farron is a joke, and not serious.Casino_Royale said:
Two friends of mine who were planning to vote Lib Dem switched to the Greens today over the 2nd referendum pledge. And they both detest Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
I'm not joking. And, no, I don't understand it.
They just think Farron is a joke and not serious.
If I were in North Norfolk, I think I'd vote Lamb. IIRC, he voted to serve the Article 50 notification.0 -
She's not dictating whom we can have in our country. She, and the EU27, are dictating the terms on which we can participate in their internal market if we wish to reject some of its core principles.welshowl said:
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.williamglenn said:Merkel warns UK will pay a price for limiting EU immigration
https://www.ft.com/content/8489e4a2-3b23-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
What could possibly go wrong?
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.0 -
"Recount in Bolsover" would be the Woooooo! moment of the night!chestnut said:Bolsover - Through the Six Pollster UNS Switcher
Labour 16013 votes
Tory 15218 votes
Based on 61.2% turnout - the referendum was 72.3%
Game on!0 -
Yes, but only the penitent man shall pass.HaroldO said:Casino_Royale said:
Suggested he could be next Chancellor only this morning.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
Even Osborne would like that.
Even I commented yesterday (or possibly the day before) that he would be back in at some point, although I seen him taking Hunt's job personally.Casino_Royale said:
Suggested he could be next Chancellor only this morning.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
Even Osborne would like that.0 -
Any polls tonight ?0
-
Thanks everyone. Had no idea. Still ground breaking for Ireland.TheWhiteRabbit said:
More seriously, Belgium, Luxembourg and IcelandSandyRentool said:
Vatican City?PaulM said:
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?HYUFD said:
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airportswilliamglenn said:Likely successor to Enda Kenny to push for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market:
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-to-push-for-north-to-stay-in-single-market-if-he-wins-fg-race-35714653.html0 -
He abstained.rcs1000 said:
That'll be because Farron is a joke, and not serious.Casino_Royale said:
Two friends of mine who were planning to vote Lib Dem switched to the Greens today over the 2nd referendum pledge. And they both detest Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
I'm not joking. And, no, I don't understand it.
They just think Farron is a joke and not serious.
If I were in North Norfolk, I think I'd vote Lamb. IIRC, he voted to serve the Article 50 notification.
Farron is wrong with his second referendum promise. Should have gone for EEA membership.0 -
Tories on maneuvers in Bolsover?
0 -
He was last matched at 1.88 to go before the end of his Term. That feels a bit high to me. Certainly if you followed Yokels comments here last night you'd definitely be taking that price.foxinsoxuk said:
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...Peter_the_Punter said:
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.nunu said:
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).Cyclefree said:rcs1000 said:
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.CommanderShepard said:
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.rcs1000 said:
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.Pulpstar said:
As of right now ?rcs1000 said:
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.Pulpstar said:
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something likenunu said:Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
8 Gains from the SNP
3 Gains from the Lib Dems
1 Gain from Plaid
80 Gains from Labour.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal.
Cambridge marginal.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?0 -
I'm not sure I'd go so far as to describe the SNP's performance, in very hard to win PR elections, as disappointing - but the wider point about Labour is plausible. Even if the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats can't peel off Labour's remaining support, then it may very well simply die out as an electoral force over the next twenty years.Alistair said:I have a theory that I hadn't yet tested as to why SLab's vote share held up relatively well despite electoral apocalypse being predicted at the council elections. I think SLab's voter base has aged dramatically as they've lost younger, but less likely to vote, voters to the SNP. Would also explain the SNP's disappointing performance.
Scottish Labour has no discernible purpose left, other than as a repository for habit votes. As younger Scots who have already abandoned Labour in their droves gradually age, they are unlikely to acquire the Labour habit.0 -
Ruth D uncharcteriscly `quiet - you're starting to see why SNP keep defying gravity !Black_Rook said:
There you go. The inept Scottish Labour leadership now has to play whac-a-mole with rebel independent parties, as well as being squeezed in a vice between the SNP and Conservatives. Slow hand claps for Kezia.Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: Suspended Labour councillors in Aberdeen have rebranded themselves 'Aberdeen Labour' & continue arrangement with Cons says @BBCCatrionaR
0 -
It's Wednesday, therefore I'm assuming there'll be a midweek YouGov for the Times later tonight.surbiton said:Any polls tonight ?
EDIT: there's also meant to be an Ipsos Mori either tomorrow or Friday, containing a big surprise of some kind.0 -
I think that impeachment takes a long time, so the 5.9 on 2018 is better value.Peter_the_Punter said:
He was last matched at 1.88 to go before the end of his Term. That feels a bit high to me. Certainly if you followed Yokels comments here last night you'd definitely be taking that price.foxinsoxuk said:
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...Peter_the_Punter said:
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.nunu said:
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).Cyclefree said:rcs1000 said:
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.CommanderShepard said:
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.rcs1000 said:
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.Pulpstar said:
As of right now ?rcs1000 said:
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.Pulpstar said:
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something likenunu said:Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
8 Gains from the SNP
3 Gains from the Lib Dems
1 Gain from Plaid
80 Gains from Labour.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal.
Cambridge marginal.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?0 -
In many ways May has been less cruel to Gove than to Boris if he is back in, BoJo has been giving the job of making Brexit work whilst Mickey has been told to go and think about what he has done and might actually be brought back in and get a proper job.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, but only the penitent man shall pass.HaroldO said:Casino_Royale said:
Suggested he could be next Chancellor only this morning.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
Even Osborne would like that.
Even I commented yesterday (or possibly the day before) that he would be back in at some point, although I seen him taking Hunt's job personally.Casino_Royale said:
Suggested he could be next Chancellor only this morning.Scott_P said:@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
Even Osborne would like that.0 -
Just retweeted thiscalum said:Ruth D uncharcteriscly `quiet - you're starting to see why SNP keep defying gravity !
@CllrTomMason: Very proud to have been elected as Deputy Provost of @AberdeenCC. I look forward to working hard on behalf of all Aberdonians.0 -
Maybe just maybe we might want to dictate to them on what terms they are allowed in, if they reject our core principles of actually wanting to be a normal country and regulate our borders in a sensible way for the benefit of our citizens.williamglenn said:
She's not dictating whom we can have in our country. She, and the EU27, are dictating the terms on which we can participate in their internal market if we wish to reject some of its core principles.welshowl said:
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.williamglenn said:Merkel warns UK will pay a price for limiting EU immigration
https://www.ft.com/content/8489e4a2-3b23-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
What could possibly go wrong?
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.
To me that means openly welcoming people who will be useful productive contributors to our society and are prepared to live by our values. It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.0 -
Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.williamglenn said:
She's not dictating whom we can have in our country. She, and the EU27, are dictating the terms on which we can participate in their internal market if we wish to reject some of its core principles.welshowl said:
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.williamglenn said:Merkel warns UK will pay a price for limiting EU immigration
https://www.ft.com/content/8489e4a2-3b23-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
What could possibly go wrong?
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.
Sauce for the goose......0 -
Philip Hammond tells me that the Black Hole in Labour's Manifesto is £58 billion.
In a single year.
Boy, are the Tories going to have some fun with that document.....0 -
Question: any chance at all of Trump being declared unfit under the 25th Amendment?foxinsoxuk said:
I think that impeachment takes a long time, so the 5.9 on 2018 is better value.Peter_the_Punter said:
He was last matched at 1.88 to go before the end of his Term. That feels a bit high to me. Certainly if you followed Yokels comments here last night you'd definitely be taking that price.foxinsoxuk said:
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...Peter_the_Punter said:
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.nunu said:
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).Cyclefree said:rcs1000 said:
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.CommanderShepard said:
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.rcs1000 said:
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.Pulpstar said:
As of right now ?rcs1000 said:
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.Pulpstar said:
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something likenunu said:Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
8 Gains from the SNP
3 Gains from the Lib Dems
1 Gain from Plaid
80 Gains from Labour.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal.
Cambridge marginal.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?0 -
By the time we get to March 2019 most businesses will have made up their minds without waiting on either our government or theirs, as the CIPS survey showed yesterday.welshowl said:
Maybe just maybe we might want to dictate to them on what terms they are allowed in, if they reject our core principles of actually wanting to be a normal country and regulate our borders in a sensible way for the benefit of our citizens.williamglenn said:
She's not dictating whom we can have in our country. She, and the EU27, are dictating the terms on which we can participate in their internal market if we wish to reject some of its core principles.welshowl said:
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.williamglenn said:Merkel warns UK will pay a price for limiting EU immigration
https://www.ft.com/content/8489e4a2-3b23-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
What could possibly go wrong?
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.
Businesses are already disentangling and moving to adjust their supply chains on both sides of the channel as well as establishing bases as they see fit.
It was good to see Barnier acknowledge that A50 is the transitional phase today.0 -
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...welshowl said:It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.Cyclefree said:Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
0 -
Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced.. 0
-
Philip hammond reads manifestos? Do you think he's read the conervative one this time?0
-
foxinsoxuk said:Peter_the_Punter said:
Funnily enough it doesn't have to. If it does in practice it may be because the interested Parties don't really want to come to that and hope the President will step down voluntarily in the end. This is exactly what happened with Nixon.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that impeachment takes a long time, so the 5.9 on 2018 is better value.Peter_the_Punter said:
He was last matched at 1.88 to go before the end of his Term. That feels a bit high to me. Certainly if you followed Yokels comments here last night you'd definitely be taking that price.nunu said:
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...Cyclefree said:
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.rcs1000 said:
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).CommanderShepard said:rcs1000 said:
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.Pulpstar said:
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.rcs1000 said:
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.Pulpstar said:
Inunu said:Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
Cambridge marginal.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?
This long New Yorker article gives the low down on this and much else if it's your kind of thing.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/08/how-trump-could-get-fired0 -
Maybe they went for colours of parties that actually existed by the end of the last Parliament, ie have MPsRobD said:Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
0 -
Doesn't say much for the "core principles" though, does it?williamglenn said:
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...welshowl said:It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.Cyclefree said:Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
0 -
Philip_Thompson said:
Maybe they went for colours of parties that actually existed by the end of the last Parliament, ie have MPsRobD said:Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
A paper that supports PR should surely care more about the vote share? 0 -
I agree. It would have satisfied the terms of the referendum. It would have enabled the LDs to say that they were putting safety first. And in Leave-y seats they could have said that Brexit is a process not a step function. It would also have enabled the LDs to pin the blame for the next recession (whatever the ultimate cause) on the government not going down the EEA route. Lamb fronting that message might have gotten the LDs into the mid to high teens.foxinsoxuk said:
He abstained.rcs1000 said:
That'll be because Farron is a joke, and not serious.Casino_Royale said:
Two friends of mine who were planning to vote Lib Dem switched to the Greens today over the 2nd referendum pledge. And they both detest Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
I'm not joking. And, no, I don't understand it.
They just think Farron is a joke and not serious.
If I were in North Norfolk, I think I'd vote Lamb. IIRC, he voted to serve the Article 50 notification.
Farron is wrong with his second referendum promise. Should have gone for EEA membership.0 -
Hammond is talking shite.MarqueeMark said:Philip Hammond tells me that the Black Hole in Labour's Manifesto is £58 billion.
In a single year.
Boy, are the Tories going to have some fun with that document.....0 -
@Fox in Sox (previous nest got ridiculously long)
I'd have thought the safest bet was to lay him still being there in 2020, but if you've time, have a look at this:
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/08/how-trump-could-get-fired0 -
Bet Labour are happy that the Tories didn't follow their suggestion that the OBR cost manifestos.SandyRentool said:
Hammond is talking shite.MarqueeMark said:Philip Hammond tells me that the Black Hole in Labour's Manifesto is £58 billion.
In a single year.
Boy, are the Tories going to have some fun with that document.....0 -
Fairly lightweight, but imaginative and entertaining, Mr.D. - I suspect you would like them. If you haven't read it, you'd probably enjoy John James' Votan more.Morris_Dancer said:Still not read any Witcher books (I have very little time for reading, and have just started a 96,000 word proofreading torture). And I don't have Netflix. Me miserum!
Don't regret Netflix; there is simply too much watchable TV of reasonable to excellent quality out there these days for anyone who aspires to do anything productive with their time...0 -
SandyRentool said:
Hammond is talking shite.MarqueeMark said:Philip Hammond tells me that the Black Hole in Labour's Manifesto is £58 billion.
In a single year.
Boy, are the Tories going to have some fun with that document.....
Noone with a brain will believe anything McDonnell says....0 -
Transitional arrangements were a two way street. New members also had a long time to adjust various aspects of their economies to full and equal participation in the single market, but there's no way back once the changes have been fully adopted.RobD said:
Doesn't say much for the "core principles" though, does it?williamglenn said:
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...welshowl said:It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.Cyclefree said:Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
0 -
Surely, it's not MORE than £58 billion?SandyRentool said:
Hammond is talking shite.MarqueeMark said:Philip Hammond tells me that the Black Hole in Labour's Manifesto is £58 billion.
In a single year.
Boy, are the Tories going to have some fun with that document.....0 -
@STVNews: Exclusive: Labour are in talks with the Conservatives over two more council deals in Scotland… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/8648855289357516810
-
QTWAIN. It would take the Vice President, the majority of Trump's own cabinet and if Trump objects, which he would, a two-thirds majority of both houses of Congress.Black_Rook said:Question: any chance at all of Trump being declared unfit under the 25th Amendment?
In contrast the impeachment route "only" takes a majority of Representatives and two-thirds of the Senate.0 -
You seem to be writing American. its COLOURSRobD said:Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
0 -
So? They were still abandoning the core principles, even if it was only temporary. And as for no going back, I think the UK is going to change thatwilliamglenn said:
Transitional arrangements were a two way street. New members also had a long time to adjust various aspects of their economies to full and equal participation in the single market, but there's no way back once the changes have been fully adopted.RobD said:
Doesn't say much for the "core principles" though, does it?williamglenn said:
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...welshowl said:It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.Cyclefree said:Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
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Blame my iPhone.... I should set it to British. I do try to make the effort to spot the american spellings though.SquareRoot said:
You seem to be writing American. its COLOURSRobD said:Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
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I don't think the $58 billion includes the pre-existing deficit or knock on effects of crashing the economy so yes it would be.MarqueeMark said:
Surely, it's not MORE than £58 billion?SandyRentool said:
Hammond is talking shite.MarqueeMark said:Philip Hammond tells me that the Black Hole in Labour's Manifesto is £58 billion.
In a single year.
Boy, are the Tories going to have some fun with that document.....0 -
Only if Pence suffers an incapacitating or fatal misfortune at roughly the same time.Black_Rook said:Question: any chance at all of Trump being declared unfit under the 25th Amendment?
Remember - impeach Trump, get Pence.
This is why Clinton despite being somewhat less corrupt and irresponsible would in practice have been in more danger than Trump of being removed. Tim Kaine may not be a great campaigner but he would make a half-decent president.0 -
Re envy: yes they soon will be. We'll be having elections with the ability to fire those with power over us. Theirs will slip away into a Kafkaeseque morass of bureaucrat led decisions (how do I fire the Swedish Commissioner through the ballot box- oh I can't can I?), unable to be held properly to account, not least because you can't have a proper media and political discourse across about 20 languages.williamglenn said:
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...welshowl said:It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.Cyclefree said:Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
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