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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure on the President heralds the return of Marf
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure on the President heralds the return of Marf
We’ve not seen a Marf cartoon on PB for some time but that all changes this afternoon with this drawing on Donald Trump who clearly is under a lot of pressure.
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Hmm. What do PBers have on their toast? Butter? Margarine? Honey?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzOHq5WbQ8k
https://twitter.com/AberdeenLabour/status/864855275454517254
http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates
8 Gains from the SNP
3 Gains from the Lib Dems
1 Gain from Plaid
80 Gains from Labour.
Did she ask every single woman in Bradford West ? Really hate it when so called "community leaders" purport to be speaking for whole groups of people.
Now it's looking like Labour are doing better than that, so perhaps you might see the Tories on 47% with a 15% lead. So, "only" 50 Tory gains.
Is that realistic? I don't know. They are both absurd in their own multiple ways.
Someone said earlier that they thought the Conservative campaign hadn't started properly yet, that they were toying with Corbyn and would shortly go in for the kill. I don't know about that. I think that to fight an effective campaign you go in hard, you go in early and you go in often. I'm beginning to think that perhaps May and her team simply aren't as good as Cameron and Osborne at fighting election campaigns. Maybe not even as good as Corbyn.
Orkney
Ceredigion
Leeds North West
Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal.
Cambridge marginal.
Ireland's biggest problem is going to be the EU.
Oh, and I'm a natural pessimist and find that this attitude means I am less frequently disappointed, and more often pleasantly surprised.
I think that the Scottish Conservatives will make no more than modest progress against the SNP, and the Tories and Lib Dems will essentially play out a score draw (say, Southport, Carshalton & Wallington and North Norfolk for Twickenham, Lewes and Kingston & Surbiton.)
Blair didn't get anywhere near 50% in 1997 remember. He won 418 seats with a 12.5% lead.
On the tory campaign Theresa May has said she wants to run a positive campaign.....we shall see about that. But if she wants a mandate to implement her manifesto then it would be better to win on the policies rather than "not corbyn". The manifesto is being launched tommorow, I think her (and it really is all about her) campaign will step up a gear from then on, before that and the public will have forgotton by election day.
We must be mad etc etc
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/864855089068027905
All that said, (a) we've not had the Conservative manifesto launch and (b) perhaps they're saving the full blitz of attack ads for closer to the election? It might simply be that they don't want their messages to become stale, or for the hapless Corbyn to be battered so hard that some voters start to feel misplaced sympathy for the old bugger. And isn't it often said that most voters don't really start to pay attention until the moment of decision is imminent, anyway?
In the meantime, the newspapers have been doing a very efficient job of shredding Labour's plans on the Government's behalf. Even The Guardian led the day after the launch with McCluskey's less than helpful remarks.
Even worse, there will likely be sermons from the various imams on the Friday before the election, reminding their people who they should be voting for, along with 'representatives' at the polling stations to make sure they do.
Or worse...!
(Blair made 145 gains in 1997 on a 10% swing. A lead for Team Theresa of 25% would equate to a swing of 9.3%, so nearer to 150 gains than 100 is certainly... realistic)
If the Conservatives make a net 70 gains then they'd have a majority of about 150.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Finally, Labour councillors elsewhere have done deals with the SNP without facing this sort of reaction. If the impression that SLAB is just a pimple on the SNP's backside starts to gain credence, then any remaining Labour voters who are anti-independence are liable to walk away and seek an alternative.
In Fife that problem does not exist.
I'm downgrading them to be lucky to get to 8 seats, as they seem certain to lose 3-4 of their current seats, and gains will be tough if the Tories are surging and Labour holding pretty firm.
They are a stubborn lot, who came back from the dead once, but do they have to will to do so again? I'm sure they thought, yes, but if they make no progress or even go backwards at this GE? Just give up, hope Labour split and join a new group. En march and all that.
Good evening, everybody.
SNP: 41%
Lab: 34%
Con: 22%
Edinburgh North & Leith:
SNP: 41
Lab: 32
Con: 16
East Lothian:
SNP: 43
Lab: 31
Con: 20
Aberdeen South
SNP: 42
Lab 27
Con 23
SLAB - snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.....
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/tooting-stabbing-rugby-coach-rushes-to-help-stab-victim-while-out-canvassing-for-election-a3541406.html?amp
That will be spectacular.
On SportingIndex SELL 14 BUY 17
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british?tpid=6441&btag=a_7b_95c_ … … … … … …
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https://spreadex.com?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spr … … …
Every single Scottish journo in my timeline is pointing out that Ruth is currently unwrapping the present Kezia has just hand delivered, with exquisite timing
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Expect a lot more of this sort of nonsense in the years ahead. The more that Labour moves to embrace the Far Left foreign policy agenda, and the more that it is forced back into the inner cities, the more it will fall under the influence of the less progressive inclinations of certain cultural minorities.
I hope you and all PBers followed my advice to buy the Tories at 378?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/